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Monday, December 20, 2021

Tide

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Simplified schematic of only the lunar portion of Earth's tides, showing (exaggerated) high tides at the sublunar point and its antipode for the hypothetical case of an ocean of constant depth without land. Solar tides not shown.
 
In Maine (U.S.), low tide occurs roughly at moonrise and high tide with a high Moon, corresponding to the simple gravity model of two tidal bulges; at most places however, the Moon and tides have a phase shift.
 
Tide coming in, video stops about 1+12 hours before high tide

Tides are the rise and fall of sea levels caused by the combined effects of the gravitational forces exerted by the Moon and the Sun, and the rotation of the Earth.

Tide tables can be used for any given locale to find the predicted times and amplitude (or "tidal range"). The predictions are influenced by many factors including the alignment of the Sun and Moon, the phase and amplitude of the tide (pattern of tides in the deep ocean), the amphidromic systems of the oceans, and the shape of the coastline and near-shore bathymetry (see Timing). They are however only predictions, the actual time and height of the tide is affected by wind and atmospheric pressure. Many shorelines experience semi-diurnal tides—two nearly equal high and low tides each day. Other locations have a diurnal tide—one high and low tide each day. A "mixed tide"—two uneven magnitude tides a day—is a third regular category.

Tides vary on timescales ranging from hours to years due to a number of factors, which determine the lunitidal interval. To make accurate records, tide gauges at fixed stations measure water level over time. Gauges ignore variations caused by waves with periods shorter than minutes. These data are compared to the reference (or datum) level usually called mean sea level.

While tides are usually the largest source of short-term sea-level fluctuations, sea levels are also subject to forces such as wind and barometric pressure changes, resulting in storm surges, especially in shallow seas and near coasts.

Tidal phenomena are not limited to the oceans, but can occur in other systems whenever a gravitational field that varies in time and space is present. For example, the shape of the solid part of the Earth is affected slightly by Earth tide, though this is not as easily seen as the water tidal movements.

Characteristics

Three graphs. The first shows the twice-daily rising and falling tide pattern with nearly regular high and low elevations. The second shows the much more variable high and low tides that form a "mixed tide". The third shows the day-long period of a diurnal tide.
Types of tides (See Timing (below) for coastal map)

Tide changes proceed via the two main stages:

  • The water stops falling, reaching a local minimum called low tide.
  • The water stops rising, reaching a local maximum called high tide.

In some regions, there are additional two possible stages:

  • Sea level rises over several hours, covering the intertidal zone; flood tide.
  • Sea level falls over several hours, revealing the intertidal zone; ebb tide.

Oscillating currents produced by tides are known as tidal streams or tidal currents. The moment that the tidal current ceases is called slack water or slack tide. The tide then reverses direction and is said to be turning. Slack water usually occurs near high water and low water, but there are locations where the moments of slack tide differ significantly from those of high and low water.

Tides are commonly semi-diurnal (two high waters and two low waters each day), or diurnal (one tidal cycle per day). The two high waters on a given day are typically not the same height (the daily inequality); these are the higher high water and the lower high water in tide tables. Similarly, the two low waters each day are the higher low water and the lower low water. The daily inequality is not consistent and is generally small when the Moon is over the Equator.

Reference levels

The following reference tide levels can be defined, from the highest level to the lowest:

  • Highest astronomical tide (HAT) – The highest tide which can be predicted to occur. Note that meteorological conditions may add extra height to the HAT.
  • Mean high water springs (MHWS) – The average of the two high tides on the days of spring tides.
  • Mean high water neaps (MHWN) – The average of the two high tides on the days of neap tides.
  • Mean sea level (MSL) – This is the average sea level. The MSL is constant for any location over a long period.
  • Mean low water neaps (MLWN) – The average of the two low tides on the days of neap tides.
  • Mean low water springs (MLWS) – The average of the two low tides on the days of spring tides.
  • Lowest astronomical tide (LAT) – The lowest tide which can be predicted to occur.

Illustration by the course of half a month

Tidal constituents

Tidal constituents are the net result of multiple influences impacting tidal changes over certain periods of time. Primary constituents include the Earth's rotation, the position of the Moon and Sun relative to the Earth, the Moon's altitude (elevation) above the Earth's Equator, and bathymetry. Variations with periods of less than half a day are called harmonic constituents. Conversely, cycles of days, months, or years are referred to as long period constituents.

Tidal forces affect the entire earth, but the movement of solid Earth occurs by mere centimeters. In contrast, the atmosphere is much more fluid and compressible so its surface moves by kilometers, in the sense of the contour level of a particular low pressure in the outer atmosphere.

Principal lunar semi-diurnal constituent

Global surface elevation of M2 ocean tide (NASA) 

In most locations, the largest constituent is the principal lunar semi-diurnal, also known as the M2 tidal constituent or M2 tidal constituent. Its period is about 12 hours and 25.2 minutes, exactly half a tidal lunar day, which is the average time separating one lunar zenith from the next, and thus is the time required for the Earth to rotate once relative to the Moon. Simple tide clocks track this constituent. The lunar day is longer than the Earth day because the Moon orbits in the same direction the Earth spins. This is analogous to the minute hand on a watch crossing the hour hand at 12:00 and then again at about 1:05½ (not at 1:00).

The Moon orbits the Earth in the same direction as the Earth rotates on its axis, so it takes slightly more than a day—about 24 hours and 50 minutes—for the Moon to return to the same location in the sky. During this time, it has passed overhead (culmination) once and underfoot once (at an hour angle of 00:00 and 12:00 respectively), so in many places the period of strongest tidal forcing is the above-mentioned, about 12 hours and 25 minutes. The moment of highest tide is not necessarily when the Moon is nearest to zenith or nadir, but the period of the forcing still determines the time between high tides.

Because the gravitational field created by the Moon weakens with distance from the Moon, it exerts a slightly stronger than average force on the side of the Earth facing the Moon, and a slightly weaker force on the opposite side. The Moon thus tends to "stretch" the Earth slightly along the line connecting the two bodies. The solid Earth deforms a bit, but ocean water, being fluid, is free to move much more in response to the tidal force, particularly horizontally (see equilibrium tide).

As the Earth rotates, the magnitude and direction of the tidal force at any particular point on the Earth's surface change constantly; although the ocean never reaches equilibrium—there is never time for the fluid to "catch up" to the state it would eventually reach if the tidal force were constant—the changing tidal force nonetheless causes rhythmic changes in sea surface height.

When there are two high tides each day with different heights (and two low tides also of different heights), the pattern is called a mixed semi-diurnal tide.

Range variation: springs and neaps

Spring tide: the Sun, moon, and earth form a straight line. Neap tide: the Sun, moon, and earth form a right angle.
The types of tides

The semi-diurnal range (the difference in height between high and low waters over about half a day) varies in a two-week cycle. Approximately twice a month, around new moon and full moon when the Sun, Moon, and Earth form a line (a configuration known as a syzygy), the tidal force due to the Sun reinforces that due to the Moon. The tide's range is then at its maximum; this is called the spring tide. It is not named after the season, but, like that word, derives from the meaning "jump, burst forth, rise", as in a natural spring. Spring tides are sometimes referred to as syzygy tides.

When the Moon is at first quarter or third quarter, the Sun and Moon are separated by 90° when viewed from the Earth, and the solar tidal force partially cancels the Moon's tidal force. At these points in the lunar cycle, the tide's range is at its minimum; this is called the neap tide, or neaps. "Neap" is an Anglo-Saxon word meaning "without the power", as in forðganges nip (forth-going without-the-power). Neap tides are sometimes referred to as quadrature tides.

Spring tides result in high waters that are higher than average, low waters that are lower than average, "slack water" time that is shorter than average, and stronger tidal currents than average. Neaps result in less extreme tidal conditions. There is about a seven-day interval between springs and neaps.


Lunar distance

Low tide at Bangchuidao scenic area, Dalian, Liaoning Province, China
 
Low tide at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, U.S.
 
Low tide at Bar Harbor, Maine, U.S. (2014)

The changing distance separating the Moon and Earth also affects tide heights. When the Moon is closest, at perigee, the range increases, and when it is at apogee, the range shrinks. Six or eight times a year perigee coincides with either a new or full moon causing perigean spring tides with the largest tidal range. The difference between the height of a tide at perigean spring tide and the spring tide when the moon is at apogee depends on location but can be large as a foot higher.

Other constituents

These include solar gravitational effects, the obliquity (tilt) of the Earth's Equator and rotational axis, the inclination of the plane of the lunar orbit and the elliptical shape of the Earth's orbit of the Sun.

A compound tide (or overtide) results from the shallow-water interaction of its two parent waves.

Phase and amplitude

Map showing relative tidal magnitudes of different ocean areas
M2 tidal constituent. Red is most extreme (highest highs, lowest lows), with blues being least extreme. White cotidal lines converge in blue areas indicating little or no tide. The curved arcs around these convergent areas are amphidromic points. They show the direction of the tides, each indicating a synchronized 6-hour period. Tidal ranges generally increase with increasing distance from amphidromic points. Tide waves move around these points, generally counterclockwise in the N. Hemisphere and clockwise in the S. Hemisphere

Because the M2 tidal constituent dominates in most locations, the stage or phase of a tide, denoted by the time in hours after high water, is a useful concept. Tidal stage is also measured in degrees, with 360° per tidal cycle. Lines of constant tidal phase are called cotidal lines, which are analogous to contour lines of constant altitude on topographical maps, and when plotted form a cotidal map or cotidal chart. High water is reached simultaneously along the cotidal lines extending from the coast out into the ocean, and cotidal lines (and hence tidal phases) advance along the coast. Semi-diurnal and long phase constituents are measured from high water, diurnal from maximum flood tide. This and the discussion that follows is precisely true only for a single tidal constituent.

For an ocean in the shape of a circular basin enclosed by a coastline, the cotidal lines point radially inward and must eventually meet at a common point, the amphidromic point. The amphidromic point is at once cotidal with high and low waters, which is satisfied by zero tidal motion. (The rare exception occurs when the tide encircles an island, as it does around New Zealand, Iceland and Madagascar.) Tidal motion generally lessens moving away from continental coasts, so that crossing the cotidal lines are contours of constant amplitude (half the distance between high and low water) which decrease to zero at the amphidromic point. For a semi-diurnal tide the amphidromic point can be thought of roughly like the center of a clock face, with the hour hand pointing in the direction of the high water cotidal line, which is directly opposite the low water cotidal line. High water rotates about the amphidromic point once every 12 hours in the direction of rising cotidal lines, and away from ebbing cotidal lines. This rotation, caused by the Coriolis effect, is generally clockwise in the southern hemisphere and counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere. The difference of cotidal phase from the phase of a reference tide is the epoch. The reference tide is the hypothetical constituent "equilibrium tide" on a landless Earth measured at 0° longitude, the Greenwich meridian.

In the North Atlantic, because the cotidal lines circulate counterclockwise around the amphidromic point, the high tide passes New York Harbor approximately an hour ahead of Norfolk Harbor. South of Cape Hatteras the tidal forces are more complex, and cannot be predicted reliably based on the North Atlantic cotidal lines.

History

History of tidal theory

Investigation into tidal physics was important in the early development of celestial mechanics, with the existence of two daily tides being explained by the Moon's gravity. Later the daily tides were explained more precisely by the interaction of the Moon's and the Sun's gravity.

Seleucus of Seleucia theorized around 150 BC that tides were caused by the Moon. The influence of the Moon on bodies of water was also mentioned in Ptolemy's Tetrabiblos.

In De temporum ratione (The Reckoning of Time) of 725 Bede linked semidurnal tides and the phenomenon of varying tidal heights to the Moon and its phases. Bede starts by noting that the tides rise and fall 4/5 of an hour later each day, just as the Moon rises and sets 4/5 of an hour later. He goes on to emphasise that in two lunar months (59 days) the Moon circles the Earth 57 times and there are 114 tides. Bede then observes that the height of tides varies over the month. Increasing tides are called malinae and decreasing tides ledones and that the month is divided into four parts of seven or eight days with alternating malinae and ledones. In the same passage he also notes the effect of winds to hold back tides. Bede also records that the time of tides varies from place to place. To the north of Bede's location (Monkwearmouth) the tides are earlier, to the south later. He explains that the tide "deserts these shores in order to be able all the more to be able to flood other [shores] when it arrives there" noting that "the Moon which signals the rise of tide here, signals its retreat in other regions far from this quarter of the heavens".

Medieval understanding of the tides was primarily based on works of Muslim astronomers, which became available through Latin translation starting from the 12th century. Abu Ma'shar (d. circa 886), in his Introductorium in astronomiam, taught that ebb and flood tides were caused by the Moon. Abu Ma'shar discussed the effects of wind and Moon's phases relative to the Sun on the tides. In the 12th century, al-Bitruji (d. circa 1204) contributed the notion that the tides were caused by the general circulation of the heavens.

Simon Stevin, in his 1608 De spiegheling der Ebbenvloet (The theory of ebb and flood), dismissed a large number of misconceptions that still existed about ebb and flood. Stevin pleaded for the idea that the attraction of the Moon was responsible for the tides and spoke in clear terms about ebb, flood, spring tide and neap tide, stressing that further research needed to be made.

In 1609 Johannes Kepler also correctly suggested that the gravitation of the Moon caused the tides, which he based upon ancient observations and correlations.

Galileo Galilei in his 1632 Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, whose working title was Dialogue on the Tides, gave an explanation of the tides. The resulting theory, however, was incorrect as he attributed the tides to the sloshing of water caused by the Earth's movement around the Sun. He hoped to provide mechanical proof of the Earth's movement. The value of his tidal theory is disputed. Galileo rejected Kepler's explanation of the tides.

Isaac Newton (1642–1727) was the first person to explain tides as the product of the gravitational attraction of astronomical masses. His explanation of the tides (and many other phenomena) was published in the Principia (1687) and used his theory of universal gravitation to explain the lunar and solar attractions as the origin of the tide-generating forces. Newton and others before Pierre-Simon Laplace worked the problem from the perspective of a static system (equilibrium theory), that provided an approximation that described the tides that would occur in a non-inertial ocean evenly covering the whole Earth. The tide-generating force (or its corresponding potential) is still relevant to tidal theory, but as an intermediate quantity (forcing function) rather than as a final result; theory must also consider the Earth's accumulated dynamic tidal response to the applied forces, which response is influenced by ocean depth, the Earth's rotation, and other factors.

In 1740, the Académie Royale des Sciences in Paris offered a prize for the best theoretical essay on tides. Daniel Bernoulli, Leonhard Euler, Colin Maclaurin and Antoine Cavalleri shared the prize.

Maclaurin used Newton's theory to show that a smooth sphere covered by a sufficiently deep ocean under the tidal force of a single deforming body is a prolate spheroid (essentially a three-dimensional oval) with major axis directed toward the deforming body. Maclaurin was the first to write about the Earth's rotational effects on motion. Euler realized that the tidal force's horizontal component (more than the vertical) drives the tide. In 1744 Jean le Rond d'Alembert studied tidal equations for the atmosphere which did not include rotation.

In 1770 James Cook's barque HMS Endeavour grounded on the Great Barrier Reef. Attempts were made to refloat her on the following tide which failed, but the tide after that lifted her clear with ease. Whilst she was being repaired in the mouth of the Endeavour River Cook observed the tides over a period of seven weeks. At neap tides both tides in a day were similar, but at springs the tides rose 7 feet (2.1 m) in the morning but 9 feet (2.7 m) in the evening.

Pierre-Simon Laplace formulated a system of partial differential equations relating the ocean's horizontal flow to its surface height, the first major dynamic theory for water tides. The Laplace tidal equations are still in use today. William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin, rewrote Laplace's equations in terms of vorticity which allowed for solutions describing tidally driven coastally trapped waves, known as Kelvin waves.

Others including Kelvin and Henri Poincaré further developed Laplace's theory. Based on these developments and the lunar theory of E W Brown describing the motions of the Moon, Arthur Thomas Doodson developed and published in 1921 the first modern development of the tide-generating potential in harmonic form: Doodson distinguished 388 tidal frequencies. Some of his methods remain in use.

History of tidal observation

Brouscon's Almanach of 1546: Compass bearings of high waters in the Bay of Biscay (left) and the coast from Brittany to Dover (right).
 
Brouscon's Almanach of 1546: Tidal diagrams "according to the age of the moon".

From ancient times, tidal observation and discussion has increased in sophistication, first marking the daily recurrence, then tides' relationship to the Sun and moon. Pytheas travelled to the British Isles about 325 BC and seems to be the first to have related spring tides to the phase of the moon.

In the 2nd century BC, the Hellenistic astronomer Seleucus of Seleucia correctly described the phenomenon of tides in order to support his heliocentric theory. He correctly theorized that tides were caused by the moon, although he believed that the interaction was mediated by the pneuma. He noted that tides varied in time and strength in different parts of the world. According to Strabo (1.1.9), Seleucus was the first to link tides to the lunar attraction, and that the height of the tides depends on the moon's position relative to the Sun.

The Naturalis Historia of Pliny the Elder collates many tidal observations, e.g., the spring tides are a few days after (or before) new and full moon and are highest around the equinoxes, though Pliny noted many relationships now regarded as fanciful. In his Geography, Strabo described tides in the Persian Gulf having their greatest range when the moon was furthest from the plane of the Equator. All this despite the relatively small amplitude of Mediterranean basin tides. (The strong currents through the Euripus Strait and the Strait of Messina puzzled Aristotle.) Philostratus discussed tides in Book Five of The Life of Apollonius of Tyana. Philostratus mentions the moon, but attributes tides to "spirits". In Europe around 730 AD, the Venerable Bede described how the rising tide on one coast of the British Isles coincided with the fall on the other and described the time progression of high water along the Northumbrian coast.

The first tide table in China was recorded in 1056 AD primarily for visitors wishing to see the famous tidal bore in the Qiantang River. The first known British tide table is thought to be that of John Wallingford, who died Abbot of St. Albans in 1213, based on high water occurring 48 minutes later each day, and three hours earlier at the Thames mouth than upriver at London.

In 1614 Claude d'Abbeville published the work “Histoire de la mission de pères capucins en l’Isle de Maragnan et terres circonvoisines”, where he exposed that the Tupinambá people already had an understanding of the relation between the Moon and the tides before Europe.

William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) led the first systematic harmonic analysis of tidal records starting in 1867. The main result was the building of a tide-predicting machine using a system of pulleys to add together six harmonic time functions. It was "programmed" by resetting gears and chains to adjust phasing and amplitudes. Similar machines were used until the 1960s.

The first known sea-level record of an entire spring–neap cycle was made in 1831 on the Navy Dock in the Thames Estuary. Many large ports had automatic tide gauge stations by 1850.

John Lubbock was one of the first to map co-tidal lines, for Great Britain, Ireland and adjacent coasts, in 1840. William Whewell expanded this work ending with a nearly global chart in 1836. In order to make these maps consistent, he hypothesized the existence of a region with no tidal rise or fall where co-tidal lines meet in the mid-ocean. The existence of such an amphidromic point, as they are now known, was confirmed in 1840 by Captain William Hewett, RN, from careful soundings in the North Sea.

Physics

Forces

The tidal force produced by a massive object (Moon, hereafter) on a small particle located on or in an extensive body (Earth, hereafter) is the vector difference between the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the particle, and the gravitational force that would be exerted on the particle if it were located at the Earth's center of mass.

Whereas the gravitational force subjected by a celestial body on Earth varies inversely as the square of its distance to the Earth, the maximal tidal force varies inversely as, approximately, the cube of this distance. If the tidal force caused by each body were instead equal to its full gravitational force (which is not the case due to the free fall of the whole Earth, not only the oceans, towards these bodies) a different pattern of tidal forces would be observed, e.g. with a much stronger influence from the Sun than from the Moon: The solar gravitational force on the Earth is on average 179 times stronger than the lunar, but because the Sun is on average 389 times farther from the Earth, its field gradient is weaker. The tidal force is proportional to

where M is the mass of the heavenly body, d is its distance, ρ is its average density, and r is its radius. The ratio r/d is related to the angle subtended by the object in the sky. Since the sun and the moon have practically the same diameter in the sky, the tidal force of the sun is less than that of the moon because its average density is much less, and it is only 46% as large as the lunar. More precisely, the lunar tidal acceleration (along the Moon–Earth axis, at the Earth's surface) is about 1.1 × 10−7 g, while the solar tidal acceleration (along the Sun–Earth axis, at the Earth's surface) is about 0.52 × 10−7 g, where g is the gravitational acceleration at the Earth's surface. The effects of the other planets vary as their distances from Earth vary. When Venus is closest to Earth, its effect is 0.000113 times the solar effect. At other times, Jupiter or Mars may have the most effect.

Diagram showing a circle with closely spaced arrows pointing away from the reader on the left and right sides, while pointing towards the user on the top and bottom.
The lunar gravity differential field at the Earth's surface is known as the tide-generating force. This is the primary mechanism that drives tidal action and explains two equipotential tidal bulges, accounting for two daily high waters.

The ocean's surface is approximated by a surface referred to as the geoid, which takes into consideration the gravitational force exerted by the earth as well as centrifugal force due to rotation. Now consider the effect of massive external bodies such as the Moon and Sun. These bodies have strong gravitational fields that diminish with distance and cause the ocean's surface to deviate from the geoid. They establish a new equilibrium ocean surface which bulges toward the moon on one side and away from the moon on the other side. The earth's rotation relative to this shape causes the daily tidal cycle. The ocean surface tends toward this equilibrium shape, which is constantly changing, and never quite attains it. When the ocean surface is not aligned with it, it's as though the surface is sloping, and water accelerates in the down-slope direction.

Equilibrium

The equilibrium tide is the idealized tide assuming a landless Earth. It would produce a tidal bulge in the ocean, with the shape of an ellipsoid elongated towards the attracting body (Moon or Sun). It is not caused by the vertical pull nearest or farthest from the body, which is very weak; rather, it is caused by the tangent or "tractive" tidal force, which is strongest at about 45 degrees from the body, resulting in a horizontal tidal current.

Laplace's tidal equations

Ocean depths are much smaller than their horizontal extent. Thus, the response to tidal forcing can be modelled using the Laplace tidal equations which incorporate the following features:

  • The vertical (or radial) velocity is negligible, and there is no vertical shear—this is a sheet flow.
  • The forcing is only horizontal (tangential).
  • The Coriolis effect appears as an inertial force (fictitious) acting laterally to the direction of flow and proportional to velocity.
  • The surface height's rate of change is proportional to the negative divergence of velocity multiplied by the depth. As the horizontal velocity stretches or compresses the ocean as a sheet, the volume thins or thickens, respectively.

The boundary conditions dictate no flow across the coastline and free slip at the bottom.

The Coriolis effect (inertial force) steers flows moving towards the Equator to the west and flows moving away from the Equator toward the east, allowing coastally trapped waves. Finally, a dissipation term can be added which is an analog to viscosity.

Amplitude and cycle time

The theoretical amplitude of oceanic tides caused by the Moon is about 54 centimetres (21 in) at the highest point, which corresponds to the amplitude that would be reached if the ocean possessed a uniform depth, there were no landmasses, and the Earth were rotating in step with the Moon's orbit. The Sun similarly causes tides, of which the theoretical amplitude is about 25 centimetres (9.8 in) (46% of that of the Moon) with a cycle time of 12 hours. At spring tide the two effects add to each other to a theoretical level of 79 centimetres (31 in), while at neap tide the theoretical level is reduced to 29 centimetres (11 in). Since the orbits of the Earth about the Sun, and the Moon about the Earth, are elliptical, tidal amplitudes change somewhat as a result of the varying Earth–Sun and Earth–Moon distances. This causes a variation in the tidal force and theoretical amplitude of about ±18% for the Moon and ±5% for the Sun. If both the Sun and Moon were at their closest positions and aligned at new moon, the theoretical amplitude would reach 93 centimetres (37 in).

Real amplitudes differ considerably, not only because of depth variations and continental obstacles, but also because wave propagation across the ocean has a natural period of the same order of magnitude as the rotation period: if there were no land masses, it would take about 30 hours for a long wavelength surface wave to propagate along the Equator halfway around the Earth (by comparison, the Earth's lithosphere has a natural period of about 57 minutes). Earth tides, which raise and lower the bottom of the ocean, and the tide's own gravitational self attraction are both significant and further complicate the ocean's response to tidal forces.

Dissipation

Earth's tidal oscillations introduce dissipation at an average rate of about 3.75 terawatts. About 98% of this dissipation is by marine tidal movement. Dissipation arises as basin-scale tidal flows drive smaller-scale flows which experience turbulent dissipation. This tidal drag creates torque on the moon that gradually transfers angular momentum to its orbit, and a gradual increase in Earth–moon separation. The equal and opposite torque on the Earth correspondingly decreases its rotational velocity. Thus, over geologic time, the moon recedes from the Earth, at about 3.8 centimetres (1.5 in)/year, lengthening the terrestrial day. Day length has increased by about 2 hours in the last 600 million years. Assuming (as a crude approximation) that the deceleration rate has been constant, this would imply that 70 million years ago, day length was on the order of 1% shorter with about 4 more days per year.

Bathymetry

The harbour of Gorey, Jersey falls dry at low tide.

The shape of the shoreline and the ocean floor changes the way that tides propagate, so there is no simple, general rule that predicts the time of high water from the Moon's position in the sky. Coastal characteristics such as underwater bathymetry and coastline shape mean that individual location characteristics affect tide forecasting; actual high water time and height may differ from model predictions due to the coastal morphology's effects on tidal flow. However, for a given location the relationship between lunar altitude and the time of high or low tide (the lunitidal interval) is relatively constant and predictable, as is the time of high or low tide relative to other points on the same coast. For example, the high tide at Norfolk, Virginia, U.S., predictably occurs approximately two and a half hours before the Moon passes directly overhead.

Land masses and ocean basins act as barriers against water moving freely around the globe, and their varied shapes and sizes affect the size of tidal frequencies. As a result, tidal patterns vary. For example, in the U.S., the East coast has predominantly semi-diurnal tides, as do Europe's Atlantic coasts, while the West coast predominantly has mixed tides. Human changes to the landscape can also significantly alter local tides.

Observation and prediction

Timing

World map showing the location of diurnal, semi-diurnal, and mixed semi-diurnal tides. The European and African west coasts are exclusively semi-diurnal, and North America's West coast is mixed semi-diurnal, but elsewhere the different patterns are highly intermixed, although a given pattern may cover 200–2,000 kilometres (120–1,240 mi).
The same tidal forcing has different results depending on many factors, including coast orientation, continental shelf margin, water body dimensions.

The tidal forces due to the Moon and Sun generate very long waves which travel all around the ocean following the paths shown in co-tidal charts. The time when the crest of the wave reaches a port then gives the time of high water at the port. The time taken for the wave to travel around the ocean also means that there is a delay between the phases of the Moon and their effect on the tide. Springs and neaps in the North Sea, for example, are two days behind the new/full moon and first/third quarter moon. This is called the tide's age.

The ocean bathymetry greatly influences the tide's exact time and height at a particular coastal point. There are some extreme cases; the Bay of Fundy, on the east coast of Canada, is often stated to have the world's highest tides because of its shape, bathymetry, and its distance from the continental shelf edge. Measurements made in November 1998 at Burntcoat Head in the Bay of Fundy recorded a maximum range of 16.3 metres (53 ft) and a highest predicted extreme of 17 metres (56 ft). Similar measurements made in March 2002 at Leaf Basin, Ungava Bay in northern Quebec gave similar values (allowing for measurement errors), a maximum range of 16.2 metres (53 ft) and a highest predicted extreme of 16.8 metres (55 ft). Ungava Bay and the Bay of Fundy lie similar distances from the continental shelf edge, but Ungava Bay is free of pack ice for about four months every year while the Bay of Fundy rarely freezes.

Southampton in the United Kingdom has a double high water caused by the interaction between the M2 and M4 tidal constituents (Shallow water overtides of principal lunar). Portland has double low waters for the same reason. The M4 tide is found all along the south coast of the United Kingdom, but its effect is most noticeable between the Isle of Wight and Portland because the M2 tide is lowest in this region.

Because the oscillation modes of the Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea do not coincide with any significant astronomical forcing period, the largest tides are close to their narrow connections with the Atlantic Ocean. Extremely small tides also occur for the same reason in the Gulf of Mexico and Sea of Japan. Elsewhere, as along the southern coast of Australia, low tides can be due to the presence of a nearby amphidrome.

Analysis

A regular water level chart

Isaac Newton's theory of gravitation first enabled an explanation of why there were generally two tides a day, not one, and offered hope for a detailed understanding of tidal forces and behavior. Although it may seem that tides could be predicted via a sufficiently detailed knowledge of instantaneous astronomical forcings, the actual tide at a given location is determined by astronomical forces accumulated by the body of water over many days. In addition, accurate results would require detailed knowledge of the shape of all the ocean basins—their bathymetry, and coastline shape.

Current procedure for analysing tides follows the method of harmonic analysis introduced in the 1860s by William Thomson. It is based on the principle that the astronomical theories of the motions of Sun and Moon determine a large number of component frequencies, and at each frequency there is a component of force tending to produce tidal motion, but that at each place of interest on the Earth, the tides respond at each frequency with an amplitude and phase peculiar to that locality. At each place of interest, the tide heights are therefore measured for a period of time sufficiently long (usually more than a year in the case of a new port not previously studied) to enable the response at each significant tide-generating frequency to be distinguished by analysis, and to extract the tidal constants for a sufficient number of the strongest known components of the astronomical tidal forces to enable practical tide prediction. The tide heights are expected to follow the tidal force, with a constant amplitude and phase delay for each component. Because astronomical frequencies and phases can be calculated with certainty, the tide height at other times can then be predicted once the response to the harmonic components of the astronomical tide-generating forces has been found.

The main patterns in the tides are

  • the twice-daily variation
  • the difference between the first and second tide of a day
  • the spring–neap cycle
  • the annual variation

The Highest Astronomical Tide is the perigean spring tide when both the Sun and Moon are closest to the Earth.

When confronted by a periodically varying function, the standard approach is to employ Fourier series, a form of analysis that uses sinusoidal functions as a basis set, having frequencies that are zero, one, two, three, etc. times the frequency of a particular fundamental cycle. These multiples are called harmonics of the fundamental frequency, and the process is termed harmonic analysis. If the basis set of sinusoidal functions suit the behaviour being modelled, relatively few harmonic terms need to be added. Orbital paths are very nearly circular, so sinusoidal variations are suitable for tides.

For the analysis of tide heights, the Fourier series approach has in practice to be made more elaborate than the use of a single frequency and its harmonics. The tidal patterns are decomposed into many sinusoids having many fundamental frequencies, corresponding (as in the lunar theory) to many different combinations of the motions of the Earth, the Moon, and the angles that define the shape and location of their orbits.

For tides, then, harmonic analysis is not limited to harmonics of a single frequency. In other words, the harmonies are multiples of many fundamental frequencies, not just of the fundamental frequency of the simpler Fourier series approach. Their representation as a Fourier series having only one fundamental frequency and its (integer) multiples would require many terms, and would be severely limited in the time-range for which it would be valid.

The study of tide height by harmonic analysis was begun by Laplace, William Thomson (Lord Kelvin), and George Darwin. A.T. Doodson extended their work, introducing the Doodson Number notation to organise the hundreds of resulting terms. This approach has been the international standard ever since, and the complications arise as follows: the tide-raising force is notionally given by sums of several terms. Each term is of the form

where A is the amplitude, ω is the angular frequency usually given in degrees per hour corresponding to t measured in hours, and p is the phase offset with regard to the astronomical state at time t = 0 . There is one term for the Moon and a second term for the Sun. The phase p of the first harmonic for the Moon term is called the lunitidal interval or high water interval. The next step is to accommodate the harmonic terms due to the elliptical shape of the orbits. Accordingly, the value of A is not a constant but also varying with time, slightly, about some average figure. Replace it then by A(t) where A is another sinusoid, similar to the cycles and epicycles of Ptolemaic theory. Accordingly,

which is to say an average value A with a sinusoidal variation about it of magnitude Aa, with frequency ωa and phase pa. Thus the simple term is now the product of two cosine factors:

Given that for any x and y

it is clear that a compound term involving the product of two cosine terms each with their own frequency is the same as three simple cosine terms that are to be added at the original frequency and also at frequencies which are the sum and difference of the two frequencies of the product term. (Three, not two terms, since the whole expression is .) Consider further that the tidal force on a location depends also on whether the Moon (or the Sun) is above or below the plane of the Equator, and that these attributes have their own periods also incommensurable with a day and a month, and it is clear that many combinations result. With a careful choice of the basic astronomical frequencies, the Doodson Number annotates the particular additions and differences to form the frequency of each simple cosine term.

Graph showing one line each for M 2, S 2, N 2, K 1, O 1, P 1, and one for their summation, with the X axis spanning slightly more than a single day
Tidal prediction summing constituent parts. The tidal coefficients are defined on the page theory of tides.

Remember that astronomical tides do not include weather effects. Also, changes to local conditions (sandbank movement, dredging harbour mouths, etc.) away from those prevailing at the measurement time affect the tide's actual timing and magnitude. Organisations quoting a "highest astronomical tide" for some location may exaggerate the figure as a safety factor against analytical uncertainties, distance from the nearest measurement point, changes since the last observation time, ground subsidence, etc., to avert liability should an engineering work be overtopped. Special care is needed when assessing the size of a "weather surge" by subtracting the astronomical tide from the observed tide.

Careful Fourier data analysis over a nineteen-year period (the National Tidal Datum Epoch in the U.S.) uses frequencies called the tidal harmonic constituents. Nineteen years is preferred because the Earth, Moon and Sun's relative positions repeat almost exactly in the Metonic cycle of 19 years, which is long enough to include the 18.613 year lunar nodal tidal constituent. This analysis can be done using only the knowledge of the forcing period, but without detailed understanding of the mathematical derivation, which means that useful tidal tables have been constructed for centuries. The resulting amplitudes and phases can then be used to predict the expected tides. These are usually dominated by the constituents near 12 hours (the semi-diurnal constituents), but there are major constituents near 24 hours (diurnal) as well. Longer term constituents are 14 day or fortnightly, monthly, and semiannual. Semi-diurnal tides dominated coastline, but some areas such as the South China Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are primarily diurnal. In the semi-diurnal areas, the primary constituents M2 (lunar) and S2 (solar) periods differ slightly, so that the relative phases, and thus the amplitude of the combined tide, change fortnightly (14 day period).

In the M2 plot above, each cotidal line differs by one hour from its neighbors, and the thicker lines show tides in phase with equilibrium at Greenwich. The lines rotate around the amphidromic points counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere so that from Baja California Peninsula to Alaska and from France to Ireland the M2 tide propagates northward. In the southern hemisphere this direction is clockwise. On the other hand, M2 tide propagates counterclockwise around New Zealand, but this is because the islands act as a dam and permit the tides to have different heights on the islands' opposite sides. (The tides do propagate northward on the east side and southward on the west coast, as predicted by theory.)

The exception is at Cook Strait where the tidal currents periodically link high to low water. This is because cotidal lines 180° around the amphidromes are in opposite phase, for example high water across from low water at each end of Cook Strait. Each tidal constituent has a different pattern of amplitudes, phases, and amphidromic points, so the M2 patterns cannot be used for other tide components.

Example calculation

Graph with a single line rising and falling between 4 peaks around 3 and four valleys around −3
Tides at Bridgeport, Connecticut, U.S. during a 50-hour period.
 
Graph with a single line showing tidal peaks and valleys gradually cycling between higher highs and lower highs over a 14-day period
Tides at Bridgeport, Connecticut, U.S. during a 30-day period.
 
Graph showing with a single line showing only a minimal annual tidal fluctuation
Tides at Bridgeport, Connecticut, U.S. during a 400-day period.
 
Graph showing 6 lines with two lines for each of three cities. Nelson has two monthly spring tides, while Napier and Wellington each have one.
Tidal patterns in Cook Strait. The south part (Nelson) has two spring tides per month, versus only one on the north side (Wellington and Napier).

Because the Moon is moving in its orbit around the Earth and in the same sense as the Earth's rotation, a point on the Earth must rotate slightly further to catch up so that the time between semi-diurnal tides is not twelve but 12.4206 hours—a bit over twenty-five minutes extra. The two peaks are not equal. The two high tides a day alternate in maximum heights: lower high (just under three feet), higher high (just over three feet), and again lower high. Likewise for the low tides.

When the Earth, Moon, and Sun are in line (Sun–Earth–Moon, or Sun–Moon–Earth) the two main influences combine to produce spring tides; when the two forces are opposing each other as when the angle Moon–Earth–Sun is close to ninety degrees, neap tides result. As the Moon moves around its orbit it changes from north of the Equator to south of the Equator. The alternation in high tide heights becomes smaller, until they are the same (at the lunar equinox, the Moon is above the Equator), then redevelop but with the other polarity, waxing to a maximum difference and then waning again.

Current

The tides' influence on current or flow is much more difficult to analyze, and data is much more difficult to collect. A tidal height is a scalar quantity and varies smoothly over a wide region. A flow is a vector quantity, with magnitude and direction, both of which can vary substantially with depth and over short distances due to local bathymetry. Also, although a water channel's center is the most useful measuring site, mariners object when current-measuring equipment obstructs waterways. A flow proceeding up a curved channel may have similar magnitude, even though its direction varies continuously along the channel. Surprisingly, flood and ebb flows are often not in opposite directions. Flow direction is determined by the upstream channel's shape, not the downstream channel's shape. Likewise, eddies may form in only one flow direction.

Nevertheless, tidal current analysis is similar to tidal heights analysis: in the simple case, at a given location the flood flow is in mostly one direction, and the ebb flow in another direction. Flood velocities are given positive sign, and ebb velocities negative sign. Analysis proceeds as though these are tide heights.

In more complex situations, the main ebb and flood flows do not dominate. Instead, the flow direction and magnitude trace an ellipse over a tidal cycle (on a polar plot) instead of along the ebb and flood lines. In this case, analysis might proceed along pairs of directions, with the primary and secondary directions at right angles. An alternative is to treat the tidal flows as complex numbers, as each value has both a magnitude and a direction.

Tide flow information is most commonly seen on nautical charts, presented as a table of flow speeds and bearings at hourly intervals, with separate tables for spring and neap tides. The timing is relative to high water at some harbour where the tidal behaviour is similar in pattern, though it may be far away.

As with tide height predictions, tide flow predictions based only on astronomical factors do not incorporate weather conditions, which can completely change the outcome.

The tidal flow through Cook Strait between the two main islands of New Zealand is particularly interesting, as the tides on each side of the strait are almost exactly out of phase, so that one side's high water is simultaneous with the other's low water. Strong currents result, with almost zero tidal height change in the strait's center. Yet, although the tidal surge normally flows in one direction for six hours and in the reverse direction for six hours, a particular surge might last eight or ten hours with the reverse surge enfeebled. In especially boisterous weather conditions, the reverse surge might be entirely overcome so that the flow continues in the same direction through three or more surge periods.

A further complication for Cook Strait's flow pattern is that the tide at the south side (e.g. at Nelson) follows the common bi-weekly spring–neap tide cycle (as found along the west side of the country), but the north side's tidal pattern has only one cycle per month, as on the east side: Wellington, and Napier.

The graph of Cook Strait's tides shows separately the high water and low water height and time, through November 2007; these are not measured values but instead are calculated from tidal parameters derived from years-old measurements. Cook Strait's nautical chart offers tidal current information. For instance the January 1979 edition for 41°13·9’S 174°29·6’E (north west of Cape Terawhiti) refers timings to Westport while the January 2004 issue refers to Wellington. Near Cape Terawhiti in the middle of Cook Strait the tidal height variation is almost nil while the tidal current reaches its maximum, especially near the notorious Karori Rip. Aside from weather effects, the actual currents through Cook Strait are influenced by the tidal height differences between the two ends of the strait and as can be seen, only one of the two spring tides at the north west end of the strait near Nelson has a counterpart spring tide at the south east end (Wellington), so the resulting behaviour follows neither reference harbour.

Power generation

Tidal energy can be extracted by two means: inserting a water turbine into a tidal current, or building ponds that release/admit water through a turbine. In the first case, the energy amount is entirely determined by the timing and tidal current magnitude. However, the best currents may be unavailable because the turbines would obstruct ships. In the second, the impoundment dams are expensive to construct, natural water cycles are completely disrupted, ship navigation is disrupted. However, with multiple ponds, power can be generated at chosen times. So far, there are few installed systems for tidal power generation (most famously, La Rance at Saint Malo, France) which face many difficulties. Aside from environmental issues, simply withstanding corrosion and biological fouling pose engineering challenges.

Tidal power proponents point out that, unlike wind power systems, generation levels can be reliably predicted, save for weather effects. While some generation is possible for most of the tidal cycle, in practice turbines lose efficiency at lower operating rates. Since the power available from a flow is proportional to the cube of the flow speed, the times during which high power generation is possible are brief.

Navigation

Chart illustrating that tidal heights enter in calculations of legally significant data such as boundary lines between the high seas and territorial waters. Chart shows an exemplar coastline, identifying bottom features such as longshore bar and berms, tidal heights such as mean higher high water, and distances from shore such as the 12 mile limit.
US civil and maritime uses of tidal data

Tidal flows are important for navigation, and significant errors in position occur if they are not accommodated. Tidal heights are also important; for example many rivers and harbours have a shallow "bar" at the entrance which prevents boats with significant draft from entering at low tide.

Until the advent of automated navigation, competence in calculating tidal effects was important to naval officers. The certificate of examination for lieutenants in the Royal Navy once declared that the prospective officer was able to "shift his tides".

Tidal flow timings and velocities appear in tide charts or a tidal stream atlas. Tide charts come in sets. Each chart covers a single hour between one high water and another (they ignore the leftover 24 minutes) and show the average tidal flow for that hour. An arrow on the tidal chart indicates the direction and the average flow speed (usually in knots) for spring and neap tides. If a tide chart is not available, most nautical charts have "tidal diamonds" which relate specific points on the chart to a table giving tidal flow direction and speed.

The standard procedure to counteract tidal effects on navigation is to (1) calculate a "dead reckoning" position (or DR) from travel distance and direction, (2) mark the chart (with a vertical cross like a plus sign) and (3) draw a line from the DR in the tide's direction. The distance the tide moves the boat along this line is computed by the tidal speed, and this gives an "estimated position" or EP (traditionally marked with a dot in a triangle).

Tidal Indicator, Delaware River, Delaware c. 1897. At the time shown in the figure, the tide is 1+14 feet above mean low water and is still falling, as indicated by pointing of the arrow. Indicator is powered by system of pulleys, cables and a float. (Report Of The Superintendent Of The Coast & Geodetic Survey Showing The Progress Of The Work During The Fiscal Year Ending With June 1897 (p. 483))

Nautical charts display the water's "charted depth" at specific locations with "soundings" and the use of bathymetric contour lines to depict the submerged surface's shape. These depths are relative to a "chart datum", which is typically the water level at the lowest possible astronomical tide (although other datums are commonly used, especially historically, and tides may be lower or higher for meteorological reasons) and are therefore the minimum possible water depth during the tidal cycle. "Drying heights" may also be shown on the chart, which are the heights of the exposed seabed at the lowest astronomical tide.

Tide tables list each day's high and low water heights and times. To calculate the actual water depth, add the charted depth to the published tide height. Depth for other times can be derived from tidal curves published for major ports. The rule of twelfths can suffice if an accurate curve is not available. This approximation presumes that the increase in depth in the six hours between low and high water is: first hour — 1/12, second — 2/12, third — 3/12, fourth — 3/12, fifth — 2/12, sixth — 1/12.

Biological aspects

Intertidal ecology

Photo of partially submerged rock showing horizontal bands of different color and texture, where each band represents a different fraction of time spent submerged.
A rock, seen at low water, exhibiting typical intertidal zonation.

Intertidal ecology is the study of ecosystems between the low- and high-water lines along a shore. At low water, the intertidal zone is exposed (or emersed), whereas at high water, it is underwater (or immersed). Intertidal ecologists therefore study the interactions between intertidal organisms and their environment, as well as among the different species. The most important interactions may vary according to the type of intertidal community. The broadest classifications are based on substrates — rocky shore or soft bottom.

Intertidal organisms experience a highly variable and often hostile environment, and have adapted to cope with and even exploit these conditions. One easily visible feature is vertical zonation, in which the community divides into distinct horizontal bands of specific species at each elevation above low water. A species' ability to cope with desiccation determines its upper limit, while competition with other species sets its lower limit.

Humans use intertidal regions for food and recreation. Overexploitation can damage intertidals directly. Other anthropogenic actions such as introducing invasive species and climate change have large negative effects. Marine Protected Areas are one option communities can apply to protect these areas and aid scientific research.

Biological rhythms

The approximately fortnightly tidal cycle has large effects on intertidal and marine organisms. Hence their biological rhythms tend to occur in rough multiples of this period. Many other animals such as the vertebrates, display similar rhythms. Examples include gestation and egg hatching. In humans, the menstrual cycle lasts roughly a lunar month, an even multiple of the tidal period. Such parallels at least hint at the common descent of all animals from a marine ancestor.

Other tides

When oscillating tidal currents in the stratified ocean flow over uneven bottom topography, they generate internal waves with tidal frequencies. Such waves are called internal tides.

Shallow areas in otherwise open water can experience rotary tidal currents, flowing in directions that continually change and thus the flow direction (not the flow) completes a full rotation in 12+12 hours (for example, the Nantucket Shoals).

In addition to oceanic tides, large lakes can experience small tides and even planets can experience atmospheric tides and Earth tides. These are continuum mechanical phenomena. The first two take place in fluids. The third affects the Earth's thin solid crust surrounding its semi-liquid interior (with various modifications).

Lake tides

Large lakes such as Superior and Erie can experience tides of 1 to 4 cm (0.39 to 1.6 in), but these can be masked by meteorologically induced phenomena such as seiche. The tide in Lake Michigan is described as 1.3 to 3.8 cm (0.5 to 1.5 in) or 4.4 cm (1+34 in). This is so small that other larger effects completely mask any tide, and as such these lakes are considered non-tidal.

Atmospheric tides

Atmospheric tides are negligible at ground level and aviation altitudes, masked by weather's much more important effects. Atmospheric tides are both gravitational and thermal in origin and are the dominant dynamics from about 80 to 120 kilometres (50 to 75 mi), above which the molecular density becomes too low to support fluid behavior.

Earth tides

Earth tides or terrestrial tides affect the entire Earth's mass, which acts similarly to a liquid gyroscope with a very thin crust. The Earth's crust shifts (in/out, east/west, north/south) in response to lunar and solar gravitation, ocean tides, and atmospheric loading. While negligible for most human activities, terrestrial tides' semi-diurnal amplitude can reach about 55 centimetres (22 in) at the Equator—15 centimetres (5.9 in) due to the Sun—which is important in GPS calibration and VLBI measurements. Precise astronomical angular measurements require knowledge of the Earth's rotation rate and polar motion, both of which are influenced by Earth tides. The semi-diurnal M2 Earth tides are nearly in phase with the Moon with a lag of about two hours.

Galactic tides

Galactic tides are the tidal forces exerted by galaxies on stars within them and satellite galaxies orbiting them. The galactic tide's effects on the Solar System's Oort cloud are believed to cause 90 percent of long-period comets.

Misnomers

Tsunamis, the large waves that occur after earthquakes, are sometimes called tidal waves, but this name is given by their resemblance to the tide, rather than any causal link to the tide. Other phenomena unrelated to tides but using the word tide are rip tide, storm tide, hurricane tide, and black or red tides. Many of these usages are historic and refer to the earlier meaning of tide as "a portion of time, a season".

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Southern Oscillation Index timeseries 1876–2017.
 
Southern Oscillation Index correlated with mean sea level pressure.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and La Niña with low air surface pressure there. The two periods last several months each and typically occur every few years with varying intensity per period.

The two phases relate to the Walker circulation, which was discovered by Gilbert Walker during the early twentieth century. The Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high-pressure area over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and a low-pressure system over Indonesia. Weakening or reversal of the Walker circulation (which includes the trade winds) decreases or eliminates the upwelling of cold deep sea water, thus creating El Niño by causing the ocean surface to reach above average temperatures. An especially strong Walker circulation causes La Niña, resulting in cooler ocean temperatures due to increased upwelling.

Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study. The extremes of this climate pattern's oscillations cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected.

Outline

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases which require certain changes to take place in both the ocean and the atmosphere before an event is declared.

Normally the northward flowing Humboldt Current brings relatively cold water from the Southern Ocean northwards along South America's west coast to the tropics, where it is enhanced by up-welling taking place along the coast of Peru. Along the equator, trade winds cause the ocean currents in the eastern Pacific to draw water from the deeper ocean to the surface, thus cooling the ocean surface. Under the influence of the equatorial trade winds, this cold water flows westwards along the equator where it is slowly heated by the sun. As a direct result sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific are generally warmer, by about 8–10 °C (14–18 °F) than those in the Eastern Pacific. This warmer area of ocean is a source for convection and is associated with cloudiness and rainfall. During El Niño years the cold water weakens or disappears completely as the water in the Central and Eastern Pacific becomes as warm as the Western Pacific.

Walker circulation

Diagram of the quasi-equilibrium and La Niña phase of the Southern Oscillation. The Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds which move water and air warmed by the sun towards the west. The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is some 60 centimetres (24 in) higher in the western Pacific as the result of this motion. The water and air are returned to the east. Both are now much cooler, and the air is much drier. An El Niño episode is characterised by a breakdown of this water and air cycle, resulting in relatively warm water and moist air in the eastern Pacific.

The Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high pressure system over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and a low pressure system over Indonesia. The Walker circulations of the tropical Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic basins result in westerly surface winds in northern summer in the first basin and easterly winds in the second and third basins. As a result, the temperature structure of the three oceans display dramatic asymmetries. The equatorial Pacific and Atlantic both have cool surface temperatures in northern summer in the east, while cooler surface temperatures prevail only in the western Indian Ocean. These changes in surface temperature reflect changes in the depth of the thermocline.

Changes in the Walker circulation with time occur in conjunction with changes in surface temperature. Some of these changes are forced externally, such as the seasonal shift of the sun into the Northern Hemisphere in summer. Other changes appear to be the result of coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback in which, for example, easterly winds cause the sea surface temperature to fall in the east, enhancing the zonal heat contrast and hence intensifying easterly winds across the basin. These anomalous easterlies induce more equatorial upwelling and raise the thermocline in the east, amplifying the initial cooling by the southerlies. This coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback was originally proposed by Bjerknes. From an oceanographic point of view, the equatorial cold tongue is caused by easterly winds. Were the Earth climate symmetric about the equator, cross-equatorial wind would vanish, and the cold tongue would be much weaker and have a very different zonal structure than is observed today.

During non-El Niño conditions, the Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds that move water and air warmed by the sun toward the west. This also creates ocean upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing fishing stocks. The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet, low-pressure weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is some 60 cm (24 in) higher in the western Pacific as the result of this motion.

Sea surface temperature oscillation

The various "Niño regions" where sea surface temperatures are monitored to determine the current ENSO phase (warm or cold)

Within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, which stretches from the 120th to 170th meridians west longitude astride the equator five degrees of latitude on either side, are monitored. This region is approximately 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) to the southeast of Hawaii. The most recent three-month average for the area is computed, and if the region is more than 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) above (or below) normal for that period, then an El Niño (or La Niña) is considered in progress. The United Kingdom's Met Office also uses a several month period to determine ENSO state. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "episodes".

Normal Pacific pattern: Equatorial winds gather warm water pool toward the west. Cold water upwells along South American coast. (NOAA / PMEL / TAO)
 
El Niño conditions: Warm water pool approaches the South American coast. The absence of cold upwelling increases warming.
 
La Niña conditions: Warm water is farther west than usual.

Neutral phase

Average equatorial Pacific temperatures

If the temperature variation from climatology is within 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), ENSO conditions are described as neutral. Neutral conditions are the transition between warm and cold phases of ENSO. Ocean temperatures (by definition), tropical precipitation, and wind patterns are near average conditions during this phase. Close to half of all years are within neutral periods. During the neutral ENSO phase, other climate anomalies/patterns such as the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern exert more influence.

The 1997 El Niño observed by TOPEX/Poseidon

Warm phase

When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses and the Hadley circulation strengthens an El Niño results, causing the ocean surface to be warmer than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all offshore northwestern South America. El Niño (/ɛlˈnnj/, /-ˈnɪn-/, Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is associated with a band of warmer than average ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America. El niño is Spanish for "the child boy", and the capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ child, Jesus, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas. It is a phase of 'El Niño–Southern Oscillation' (ENSO), which refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

Cold phase

An especially strong Walker circulation causes La Niña, resulting in cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean due to increased upwelling. La Niña (/lɑːˈnnjə/, Spanish pronunciation: [la ˈniɲa]) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning "the child girl", analogous to El Niño meaning "the child boy". During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperature across the equatorial eastern central Pacific will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C. In the United States, an appearance of La Niña happens for at least five months of La Niña conditions. However, each country and island nation has a different threshold for what constitutes a La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests. The Japan Meteorological Agency for example, declares that a La Niña event has started when the average five month sea surface temperature deviation for the NINO.3 region, is over 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) cooler for 6 consecutive months or longer.

Transitional phases

Transitional phases at the onset or departure of El Niño or La Niña can also be important factors on global weather by affecting teleconnections. Significant episodes, known as Trans-Niño, are measured by the Trans-Niño index (TNI). Examples of affected short-time climate in North America include precipitation in the Northwest US and intense tornado activity in the contiguous US.

Southern Oscillation

The regions where the air pressure are measured and compared to generate the Southern Oscillation Index

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti (in the Pacific) and Darwin, Australia (on the Indian Ocean).

  • El Niño episodes have negative SOI, meaning there is lower pressure over Tahiti and higher pressure in Darwin.
  • La Niña episodes have positive SOI, meaning there is higher pressure in Tahiti and lower in Darwin.

Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because of deep convection over the warm water. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. La Niña episodes are defined as sustained cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in an increase in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and the opposite effects in Australia when compared to El Niño.

Although the Southern Oscillation Index has a long station record going back to the 1800s, its reliability is limited due to the presence of both Darwin and Tahiti well south of the Equator, resulting in the surface air pressure at both locations being less directly related to ENSO. To overcome this question, a new index was created, being named the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). To generate this index data, two new regions, centered on the Equator, were delimited to create a new index: The western one is located over Indonesia and the eastern one is located over equatorial Pacific, close to the South American coast. However, data on EQSOI goes back only to 1949.

Madden–Julian oscillation

A Hovmöller diagram of the 5-day running mean of outgoing longwave radiation showing the MJO. Time increases from top to bottom in the figure, so contours that are oriented from upper-left to lower-right represent movement from west to east.

The Madden–Julian oscillation, or (MJO), is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere, and was discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in 1971. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection. Rather than being a standing pattern like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the MJO is a traveling pattern that propagates eastward at approximately 4 to 8 m/s (14 to 29 km/h; 9 to 18 mph), through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This overall circulation pattern manifests itself in various ways, most clearly as anomalous rainfall. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30- to 60-day oscillation, 30- to 60-day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982–1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the surface easterly winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina.

Impacts

On precipitation

Regional impacts of La Niña.

Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected by ENSO. The effects of El Niño in South America are direct and strong. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. La Niña causes a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia and heavy rains over Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

To the north across Alaska, La Niña events lead to drier than normal conditions, while El Niño events do not have a correlation towards dry or wet conditions. During El Niño events, increased precipitation is expected in California due to a more southerly, zonal, storm track. During La Niña, increased precipitation is diverted into the Pacific Northwest due to a more northerly storm track. During La Niña events, the storm track shifts far enough northward to bring wetter than normal winter conditions (in the form of increased snowfall) to the Midwestern states, as well as hot and dry summers. During the El Niño portion of ENSO, increased precipitation falls along the Gulf coast and Southeast due to a stronger than normal, and more southerly, polar jet stream.

In the late winter and spring during El Niño events, drier than average conditions can be expected in Hawaii. On Guam during El Niño years, dry season precipitation averages below normal. However, the threat of a tropical cyclone is over triple what is normal during El Niño years, so extreme shorter duration rainfall events are possible. On American Samoa during El Niño events, precipitation averages about 10 percent above normal, while La Niña events lead to precipitation amounts which average close to 10 percent below normal. ENSO is linked to rainfall over Puerto Rico. During an El Niño, snowfall is greater than average across the southern Rockies and Sierra Nevada mountain range, and is well-below normal across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes states. During a La Niña, snowfall is above normal across the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes. In Western Asia, during the region’s November–April rainy season, it was discovered that in the El Niño phase there was increased precipitation, and in the La Niña phase there was a reduced amount of precipitation on average.

Although ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, even severe droughts and rainstorms in ENSO areas are not always deadly. Scholar Mike Davis cites ENSO as responsible for droughts in India and China in the late nineteenth century, but argues that nations in these areas avoided devastating famine during these droughts with institutional preparation and organized relief efforts.

On Tehuantepecers

The synoptic condition for the Tehuantepecer, a violent mountain-gap wind in between the mountains of Mexico and Guatemala, is associated with high-pressure system forming in Sierra Madre of Mexico in the wake of an advancing cold front, which causes winds to accelerate through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high pressure system. Wind magnitude is greater during El Niño years than during La Niña years, due to the more frequent cold frontal incursions during El Niño winters. Tehuantepec winds reach 20 knots (40 km/h) to 45 knots (80 km/h), and on rare occasions 100 knots (190 km/h). The wind's direction is from the north to north-northeast. It leads to a localized acceleration of the trade winds in the region, and can enhance thunderstorm activity when it interacts with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The effects can last from a few hours to six days.

On global warming

Colored bars show how El Niño years (red, regional warming) and La Niña years (blue, regional cooling) relate to overall global warming.

El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on decadal timescales. Over the last several decades, the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased, although observation of ENSO for much longer is needed to detect robust changes.

The studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, is shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend, the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.

Future trends in ENSO are uncertain as different models make different predictions. It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become weaker. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other. More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate and, under the global warming, can enhance or alternate regional climate extreme events through a strengthened teleconnection. For example, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of El Niño events have triggered warmer than usual temperatures over the Indian Ocean, by modulating the Walker circulation. This has resulted in a rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, and consequently a weakening of the Asian Monsoon.

On coral bleaching

Following the El Nino event in 1997 – 1998, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory attributes the first large-scale coral bleaching event to the warming waters.

On hurricanes

Based on modeled and observed accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), El Niño years usually result in less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean, but instead favor a shift of tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean, compared to La Niña years favoring above average hurricane development in the Atlantic and less so in the Pacific basin.

Diversity

The traditional ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), also called Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, involves temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. However, in the 1990s and 2000s, nontraditional ENSO conditions were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly (Niño 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly arises in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4). The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, "dateline" ENSO (because the anomaly arises near the dateline), or ENSO "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different"). There are flavors of ENSO additional to EP and CP types and some scientists argue that ENSO exists as a continuum often with hybrid types.

The effects of the CP ENSO are different from those of the traditional EP ENSO. The El Niño Modoki leads to more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic. La Niña Modoki leads to a rainfall increase over northwestern Australia and northern Murray–Darling basin, rather than over the east as in a conventional La Niña. Also, La Niña Modoki increases the frequency of cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal, but decreases the occurrence of severe storms in the Indian Ocean.

The recent discovery of ENSO Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming. However, comprehensive satellite data go back only to 1979. More research must be done to find the correlation and study past El Niño episodes. More generally, there is no scientific consensus on how/if climate change might affect ENSO.

There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. Indeed, a number of studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both, either arguing the reliable record is too short to detect such a distinction, finding no distinction or trend using other statistical approaches, or that other types should be distinguished, such as standard and extreme ENSO. Following the asymmetric nature of the warm and cold phases of ENSO, some studies could not identify such distinctions for La Niña, both in observations and in the climate models, but some sources indicate that there is a variation on La Niña with cooler waters on central Pacific and average or warmer water temperatures on both eastern and western Pacific, also showing eastern Pacific Ocean currents going to the opposite direction compared to the currents in traditional La Niñas.

Climate networks and El Niño

In recent years it was realized that network tools can be useful to identify and better understand large climate events such as El-Niño or monsoon. Moreover, some indications have been found that climate networks can be used for forecasting El-Niño with accuracy 3/4 about one year in advance, and even forecasting the magnitude. Also, a climate network has been applied to study the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. The climate network enables the identification of the regions that are most drastically affected by specific El Niño/La Niña events.

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation spatial pattern obtained as the regression of monthly HadISST sea surface temperature anomalies (1870-2013).
 
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index according to the methodology proposed by van Oldenborgh et al. 1880-2018.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index computed as the linearly detrended North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies 1856-2013.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), is the theorized variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean on the timescale of several decades.

While there is some support for this mode in models and in historical observations, controversy exists with regard to its amplitude, and whether it has a typical timescale and can be classified as an oscillation. There is also discussion on the attribution of sea surface temperature change to natural or anthropogenic causes, especially in tropical Atlantic areas important for hurricane development. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is also connected with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations.

Definition and history

Evidence for a multidecadal climate oscillation centered in the North Atlantic began to emerge in 1980s work by Folland and colleagues, seen in Fig. 2.d.A. That oscillation was the sole focus of Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994, but the actual term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was coined by Michael Mann in a 2000 telephone interview with Richard Kerr, as recounted by Mann, p.30 in The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines (2012).

The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth linear increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may mask effects of global warming, as per Mann, Steinman and Miller, which also provides a more detailed history of the science development.

AMO index

Several methods have been proposed to remove the global trend and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence over the North Atlantic SST. Trenberth and Shea, assuming that the effect of global forcing over the North Atlantic is similar to the global ocean, subtracted the global (60°N-60°S) mean SST from the North Atlantic SST to derive a revised AMO index.

Ting et al. however argue that the forced SST pattern is not globally uniform; they separated the forced and internally generated variability using signal to noise maximizing EOF analysis.

Van Oldenborgh et al. derived an AMO index as the SST averaged over the extra-tropical North Atlantic (to remove the influence of ENSO that is greater at tropical latitude) minus the regression on global mean temperature.

Guan and Nigam removed the non stationary global trend and Pacific natural variability before applying an EOF analysis to the residual North Atlantic SST.

The linearly detrended index suggests that the North Atlantic SST anomaly at the end of the twentieth century is equally divided between the externally forced component and internally generated variability, and that the current peak is similar to middle twentieth century; by contrast the others methodology suggest that a large portion of the North Atlantic anomaly at the end of the twentieth century is externally forced.

Frajka-Williams et al. 2017 pointed out that recent changes in cooling of the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics, increased the spatial distribution of meridional gradient in sea surface temperatures, which is not captured by the AMO Index.

Mechanisms

Based on the about 150-year instrumental record a quasi-periodicity of about 70 years, with a few distinct warmer phases between ca. 1930–1965 and after 1995, and cool between 1900–1930 and 1965–1995 has been identified. In models, AMO-like variability is associated with small changes in the North Atlantic branch of the Thermohaline Circulation. However, historical oceanic observations are not sufficient to associate the derived AMO index to present-day circulation anomalies. Models and observations indicate that changes in atmospheric circulation, which induce changes in clouds, atmospheric dust and surface heat flux, are largely responsible for the tropical portion of the AMO.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is important for how external forcings are linked with North Atlantic SSTs.

Climate impacts worldwide

The AMO is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular in the summer climate in North America and Europe. Through changes in atmospheric circulation, the AMO can also modulate spring snowfall over the Alps and glaciers' mass variability. Rainfall patterns are affected in North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricane activity.

Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO, more rainfall.

Climate models suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over India and Sahel and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Paleoclimatologic studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.

Relation to Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, 1950–2015. For a global ACE graph visit this link Archived 2018-11-02 at the Wayback Machine.

A 2008 study correlated the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode (AMM), with HURDAT data (1851–2007), and noted a positive linear trend for minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2), but removed when the authors adjusted their model for undercounted storms, and stated "If there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to a greenhouse gas induced global warming, it is currently obscured by the 60 year quasi-periodic cycle." With full consideration of meteorological science, the number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool phases, at least twice as many; the AMO is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035. Enfield et al. assume a peak around 2020.

However, Mann and Emanuel had found in 2006 that “anthropogenic factors are responsible for long-term trends in tropic Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity” and “There is no apparent role of the AMO.”

In 2014 Mann, Steinman and Miller showed that warming (and therefore any effects on hurricanes) were not caused by the AMO, writing: "certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or “AMO”, fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming."

Since 1995, there have been ten Atlantic hurricane seasons considered "extremely active" by Accumulated Cyclone Energy - 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2020.

Periodicity and prediction of AMO shifts

There are only about 130–150 years of data based on instrument data, which are too few samples for conventional statistical approaches. With the aid of multi-century proxy reconstruction, a longer period of 424 years was used by Enfield and Cid–Serrano as an illustration of an approach as described in their paper called "The Probabilistic Projection of Climate Risk". Their histogram of zero crossing intervals from a set of five re-sampled and smoothed version of Gray et al. (2004) index together with the maximum likelihood estimate gamma distribution fit to the histogram, showed that the largest frequency of regime interval was around 10–20 year. The cumulative probability for all intervals 20 years or less was about 70%.

There is no demonstrated predictability for when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict El Niño, are far from being able to do this. Enfield and colleagues have calculated the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame, assuming that historical variability persists. Probabilistic projections of this kind may prove to be useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management.

A 2017 study predicts a continued cooling shift beginning 2014, and the authors note, "..unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess."

In a 2021 study by Michael Mann, it was shown that the periodicity of the AMO in the last millenium was driven by volcanic eruptions and other external forcings, and therefore that there is no compelling evidence for the AMO being an oscillation or cycle. There was also a lack of oscillatory behaviour in models on time scales longer than El Niño Southern Oscillation; the AMV is indistinguishable from red noise, a typical null hypothesis to test whether there are oscillations in a model.

Cooperative

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