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Saturday, March 25, 2023

Microfoundations

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

Microfoundations are an effort to understand macroeconomic phenomena in terms of economic agents' behaviors and their interactions. Research in microfoundations explores the link between macroeconomic and microeconomic principles in order to explore the aggregate relationships in macroeconomic models.

During recent decades, macroeconomists have attempted to combine microeconomic models of individual behaviour to derive the relationships between macroeconomic variables. Presently, many macroeconomic models, representing different theories, are derived by aggregating microeconomic models, allowing economists to test them with both macroeconomic and microeconomic data. However, microfoundations research is still heavily debated with management, strategy and organization scholars having varying views on the "micro-macro" link. The study of microfoundations is gaining popularity even outside the field of economics, recent development includes operation management and project studies.

History and Importance

History

The microfoundations project originated in the post-Second World War neoclassical synthesis where it is generally believed that neoclassical microeconomics fused with Keynesian macroeconomics. The ‘neoclassical microeconomics’ in mention is the Marshallian partial-equilibrium approach, which emerged from the Walrasian general equilibrium theory. However, the Walrasian general equilibrium theory presents another trend to the synthesis as it attempts to theorise the economy as a whole and is viewed as an alternative to macroeconomics. This approach is considered to be the trigger for exploring microfoundations, however, the notion of a gap in the “micro-macro” link has been and continues to be explored in various theories and models.

Critics of the Keynesian theory of macroeconomics argued that some of Keynes' assumptions were inconsistent with standard microeconomics. For example, Milton Friedman's microeconomic theory of consumption over time (the 'permanent income hypothesis') suggested that the marginal propensity to consume (the increase of consumer spending with increased income) due to temporary income, which is crucial for the Keynesian multiplier, was likely to be much smaller than Keynesians assumed. For this reason, many empirical studies have attempted to measure the marginal propensity to consume, and macroeconomists have also studied alternative microeconomic models (such as models of credit market imperfections and precautionary saving) that might imply a greater marginal propensity to consume.

One particularly influential endorsement of the study of microfoundations was Robert Lucas, Jr.'s critique of traditional macroeconometric forecasting models. After the apparent shift of the Phillips curve relationship during the 1970s, Lucas argued that the correlations between aggregate variables observed in macroeconomic data would tend to change whenever macroeconomic policy changed. This implied that microfounded models are more appropriate for predicting the effect of policy changes, using the assumption that changes of macroeconomic policy do not alter the microeconomics of the macroeconomy.

In terms of solutions, DSGE modelling with representative agents has been the most prevalent among literatures. This approach "makes the microeconomic and the macroeconomic level of analysis coincide: a single agent, a utility maximizing individual, represents an entire sector, which may be, for instance banks, consumers, or firms". Therefore, DSGE modelling connects both microeconomic and macroeconomic theories, thus embodying the basis of microfoundations.

Importance

It is suggested that modern mainstream economics is based entirely on DSGE models. Therefore, the importance of microfoundations lies in its synonymous relationship with DSGE.

The Smets-Wouters model is one example of the importance of microfoundations as it is regarded as a benchmark model for analysing monetary and fiscal policy. The model offers three main advantages of microfoundations:

  1. Microfoundations provides a modelling structure where data may not be very informative.
  2. Microfoundations avoids the Lucas Critique as it is able to relate the reduced-form parameters to deeper structural parameters.
  3. Microfoundations provides a basis for estimating the optimality and desirability of policy.

While these points summarise the desire to adopt DSGE models - or microfoundations - there are limitations to the model with scholars stating that their forecast performance can be poor in terms of their ability to forecast individual variables. Therefore, there is continuous debate on the microfoundations project and its efficacy with an overall lack of consensus.

Microfoundations Research and Development

"Micro" and "Macro" Research

Specialization in the management and organizational sciences has led to a divide between “macro” and “micro” areas. Research in macro management mainly focuses on the organizational or firm level, while research in micro areas mainly examines individual and group levels within organizations. For example, macro research domains typically include strategic management and organization theory, whereas micro includes areas such as organizational behaviour and human resource management. Most early macroeconomic models, including early Keynesian models, were based on hypotheses about relationships between aggregate quantities, such as aggregate production, employment, consumption, and investment. Critics and proponents of these models disagreed as to whether these aggregate relationships were consistent with the principles of microeconomics. There, bridging these two domains continues to be a topic of debate for organizational, management and strategy scholars. As a result, microfoundations has become a topic of greater interest to researchers as it explores how micro and macro areas connect.  

The Microfoundations Project

The microfoundations project was developed on the basis that if macroeconomics is associated with aggregate economic models, and microeconomics is associated with the individual behaviours of households and firms, "microfoundations was taken to be the demand that macroeconomic models have microeconomic foundations". Therefore, microfoundations research focuses on the influences of individual actions and interactions on firm heterogeneity. As stated by Felin and Foss (2005), “organizations are made up of individuals, and there is no organization without individuals”. Thus, the specific level of the microfoundations project is the individual level as it focuses on this elementary truth. However, there are various assumptions and half-truths that have been explored by scholars within microfoundations research.

Assumptions

There are two main assumptions that the microfoundations project rests upon:

  1. Firstly, it is possible to establish empirically adequate theory of individual behaviour.
  2. Secondly, the theory can be transformed into a theory of the economy using aggregation procedures, without having to make any substantive assumptions about the economy.

However, in addition to these assumptions, various scholars have indicated that microfoundations is understood to be "an application of underlying standpoint, methodological individualism,"  a concept which also has ambiguity in its meaning. Nevertheless, microfoundations research only means that individual behaviour must be shown to be consistent with macro entities. While there may be various outlooks on the topic, the general consensus implies that to bridge macro and micro theories and models, microfoundations should be adopted.

Controversy

Some, such as Alan Kirman and S. Abu Turab Rizvi, argue on the basis of the Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu theorem that the microfoundations project has failed.

Disequilibrium macroeconomics

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Disequilibrium macroeconomics is a tradition of research centered on the role of disequilibrium in economics. This approach is also known as non-Walrasian theory, equilibrium with rationing, the non-market clearing approach, and non-tâtonnement theory. Early work in the area was done by Don Patinkin, Robert W. Clower, and Axel Leijonhufvud. Their work was formalized into general disequilibrium models, which were very influential in the 1970s. American economists had mostly abandoned these models by the late 1970s, but French economists continued work in the tradition and developed fix price models.

Macroeconomic disequilibria

In the neoclassical synthesis, equilibrium models were the rule. In these models, rigid wages modeled unemployment at equilibria. These models were challenged by Don Patinkin and later disequilibrium theorists. Patinkin argued that unemployment resulted from disequilibrium. Patinkin, Robert W. Clower, and Axel Leijonhufvud focused on the role of disequilibrium. Clower and Leijonhufvud argued that disequilibrium formed a fundamental part of Keynes's theory and deserved greater attention.

Robert Barro and Herschel Grossman formulated general disequilibrium models, in which individual markets were locked into prices before there was a general equilibrium. These markets produced "false prices" resulting in disequilibrium. Soon after the work of Barro and Grossman, disequilibrium models fell out of favor in the United States and Barro abandoned Keynesianism and adopted new classical, market-clearing hypotheses. However, leading American economists continued work with disequilibrium models, for example Franklin M. Fisher at MIT, Richard E. Quandt at Princeton University, and John Roberts at Stanford University.

Disequilibrium and unemployment

Diagram for Malinvaud's typology of unemployment. Diagram shows curves for the labor and goods markets with Walrasian equilibrium in the center. Regions for Keynesian unemployment, classical unemployment, repressed inflation, and underconsumption
Diagram based on Malinvaud's typology of unemployment shows curves for equilibrium in the goods and labor markets given wage and price levels. Walrasian equilibrium is achieved when both markets are at equilibrium. According to Malinvaud the economy is usually in a state of either Keynesian unemployment, with excess supply of goods and labor, or classical unemployment, with excess supply of labor and excess demand for goods.

While disequilibrium economics had only a supporting role in the US, it had major role in European economics, and indeed a leading role in French-speaking Europe. In France, Jean-Pascal Bénassy (1975) and Yves Younès (1975) studied macroeconomic models with fixed prices. Disequilibrium economics received greater research as mass unemployment returned to Western Europe in the 1970s. Disequilibrium economics also influenced European policy discussions, particularly in France and Belgium. European economists such as Edmond Malinvaud and Jacques Drèze expanded on the disequilibrium tradition and worked to explain price rigidity instead of simply assuming it.

Malinvaud used disequilibrium analysis to develop a theory of unemployment. He argued that disequilibrium in the labor and goods markets could lead to rationing of goods and labor, leading to unemployment. Malinvaud adopted a fixprice framework and argued that pricing would be rigid in modern, industrial prices compared to the relatively flexible pricing systems of raw goods that dominate agricultural economies. In Malinvaud's framework, prices are fixed and only quantities adjust. Malinvaud considers an equilibrium state in classical and Keynesian unemployment as most likely. He pays less attention to the case of repressed inflation and considers underconsumption/unemployment a theoretical curiosity. Work in the neoclassical tradition is confined as a special case of Malinvaud's typology, the Walrasian equilibrium. In Malinvaud's theory, reaching the Walrasian equilibrium case is almost impossible to achieve given the nature of industrial pricing. Malinvaud's work provided different policy prescriptions depending on the state of the economy. Given Keynesian unemployment, fiscal policy could shift both the labor and goods curves upwards leading to higher wages and prices. With this shift, the Walrasian equilibrium would be closer to the actual economic equilibrium. On the other hand, fiscal policy with an economy in the classical unemployment would only make matters worse. A policy leading to higher prices and lower wages would be recommended instead.

"Disequilibrium macroeconometrics" was developed by Drèze's, Henri Sneessens (1981) and Jean-Paul Lambert (1988). A joint paper by Drèze and Sneessens inspired Drèze and Richard Layard to lead the European Unemployment Program, which estimated a common disequilibrium model in ten countries. The results of that successful effort were to inspire policy recommendations in Europe for several years. lequibrium extensions of Arrow–Debreu general equilibrium theory

In Belgium, Jacques Drèze defined equilibria with price rigidities and quantity constraints and studied their properties, extending the Arrow–Debreu model of general equilibrium theory in mathematical economics. Introduced in his 1975 paper, a "Drèze equilibrium" occurs when supply (demand) is constrained only when prices are downward (upward) rigid, whereas a preselected commodity (e.g. money) is never rationed. Existence is proved for arbitrary bounds on prices. A joint paper with Pierre Dehez established the existence of Drèze equilibria with no rationing of the demand side. Stanford's John Roberts studied supply-constrained equilibria at competitive prices; similar results were obtained by Jean-Jacques Herings at Tilburg (1987, 1996). Roberts and Hering proved the existence of a continuum of Drèze equilibria. Then Drèze (113) proved existence of equilibria with arbitrarily severe rationing of supply. Next, in a joint paper with Herings and others (132), the generic existence of a continuum of Pareto-ranked supply-constrained equilibria was established for a standard economy with some fixed prices. The multiplicity of equilibria thus formalises a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, comparable to a Phillips curve. Drèze viewed his approach to macroeconomics as examining the macroeconomic consequences of Arrow–Debreu general equilibrium theory with rationing, an approach complementing the often-announced program of providing microfoundations for macroeconomics.

Specific economic sectors

Credit markets

Disequilibrium credit rationing can occur for one of two reasons. In the presence of usury laws, if the equilibrium interest rate on loans is above the legally allowable rate, the market cannot clear and at the maximum allowable rate the quantity of credit demanded will exceed the quantity of credit supplied.

A more subtle source of credit rationing is that higher interest rates can increase the risk of default by the borrower, making the potential lender reluctant to lend at otherwise attractively high interest rates.

Labour markets

Labour markets are prone to particular sources of price rigidity because the item being transacted is people, and laws or social constraints designed to protect those people may hinder market adjustments. Such constraints include restrictions on who or how many people can be laid off and when (which can affect both the number of layoffs and the number of people hired by firms that are concerned by the restrictions), restrictions on the lowering of wages when a firm experiences a decline in the demand for its product, and long-term labor contracts that pre-specify wages.

Spillovers between markets

Disequilibrium in one market can affect demand or supply in other markets. Specifically, if an economic agent is constrained in one market, his supply or demand in another market may be changed from its unconstrained form, termed the notional demand, into a modified form known as effective demand. If this occurs systematically for a large number of market participants, market outcomes in the latter market for prices and quantities transacted (themselves either equilibrium or disequilibrium outcomes) will be affected.

Examples include:

  • If the supply of mortgage credit to potential homebuyers is rationed, this will decrease the demand for newly built houses.
  • If labourers cannot supply all the labor they wish to, they will have constrained income and their demand in the goods market will be lower.
  • If employers cannot hire all the labor they wish to, they cannot produce as much output as they wish to, and supply in the market for their good will be diminished.

Genealogical DNA test

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A genealogical DNA test is a DNA-based genetic test used in genetic genealogy that looks at specific locations of a person's genome in order to find or verify ancestral genealogical relationships, or (with lower reliability) to estimate the ethnic mixture of an individual. Since different testing companies use different ethnic reference groups and different matching algorithms, ethnicity estimates for an individual vary between tests, sometimes dramatically.

Three principal types of genealogical DNA tests are available, with each looking at a different part of the genome and being useful for different types of genealogical research: autosomal (atDNA), mitochondrial (mtDNA), and Y-chromosome (Y-DNA).

Autosomal tests may result in a large number of DNA matches to both males and females who have also tested with the same company. Each match will typically show an estimated degree of relatedness, i.e., a close family match, 1st-2nd cousins, 3rd-4th cousins, etc. The furthest degree of relationship is usually the "6th-cousin or further" level. However, due to the random nature of which, and how much, DNA is inherited by each tested person from their common ancestors, precise relationship conclusions can only be made for close relations. Traditional genealogical research, and the sharing of family trees, is typically required for interpretation of the results. Autosomal tests are also used in estimating ethnic mix.

MtDNA and Y-DNA tests are much more objective. However, they give considerably fewer DNA matches, if any (depending on the company doing the testing), since they are limited to relationships along a strict female line and a strict male line respectively. MtDNA and Y-DNA tests are utilized to identify archeological cultures and migration paths of a person's ancestors along a strict mother's line or a strict father's line. Based on MtDNA and Y-DNA, a person's haplogroup(s) can be identified. The mtDNA test can be taken by both males and females, because everyone inherits their mtDNA from their mother, as the mitochondrial DNA is located in the egg cell. However, a Y-DNA test can only be taken by a male, as only males have a Y-chromosome.

DNA testing for consumers

The first company to provide direct-to-consumer genealogical DNA tests was the now defunct GeneTree. However, it did not offer multi-generational genealogy tests. In fall 2001, GeneTree sold its assets to Salt Lake City-based Sorenson Molecular Genealogy Foundation (SMGF) which originated in 1999. While in operation, SMGF provided free Y-chromosome and mitochondrial DNA tests to thousands. Later, GeneTree returned to genetic testing for genealogy in conjunction with the Sorenson parent company and eventually was part of the assets acquired in the Ancestry.com buyout of SMGF in 2012.

In 2000, Family Tree DNA, founded by Bennett Greenspan and Max Blankfeld, was the first company dedicated to direct-to-consumer testing for genealogy research. They initially offered eleven-marker Y-Chromosome STR tests and HVR1 mitochondrial DNA tests. They originally tested in partnership with the University of Arizona.

In 2007, 23andMe was the first company to offer a saliva-based direct-to-consumer genetic testing. It was also the first to implement the use of autosomal DNA for ancestry testing, which other major companies (e.g., Ancestry, Family Tree DNA, and MyHeritage) now use.

MyHeritage launched its genetic testing service in 2016, allowing users to use cheek swabs to collect samples. In 2019, new analysis tools were presented: autoclusters (grouping all matches visually into clusters) and family tree theories (suggesting conceivable relations between DNA matches by combining several Myheritage trees as well as the Geni global family tree).

Living DNA, founded in 2015, also provides a genetic testing service. Living DNA uses SNP chips to provide reports on autosomal ancestry, Y, and mtDNA ancestry. Living DNA provides detailed reports on ancestry from the UK as well as detailed Y chromosome and mtDNA reports.

In 2019 it was estimated that large genealogical testing companies had about 26 million DNA profiles. Many transferred their test result for free to multiple testing sites, and also to genealogical services such as Geni.com and GEDmatch. GEDmatch said in 2018 that about half of their one million profiles were from the USA.

The popular consciousness of DNA testing and of DNA generally is subject to a number of misconceptions involving the reliability of testing, the nature of the connections with one's ancestors, the connection between DNA and personal traits, etc.

Procedure

A genealogical DNA test is performed on a DNA sample obtained by cheek-scraping (also known as a buccal swab), spit-cups, mouthwash, or chewing gum. Typically, the sample collection uses a home test kit supplied by a service provider such as 23andMe, AncestryDNA, Family Tree DNA, or MyHeritage. After following the kit instructions on how to collect the sample, it is returned to the supplier for analysis. The sample is then processed using a technology known as DNA microarray to obtain the genetic information.

Types of tests

There are three major types of genealogical DNA tests: Autosomal (which includes X-DNA), Y-DNA, and mtDNA.

  • Autosomal DNA tests look at chromosome pairs 1–22 and the X part of the 23rd chromosome. The autosomes (chromosome pairs 1–22) are inherited from both parents and all recent ancestors. The X-chromosome follows a special inheritance pattern, because females (XX) inherit an X-chromosome from each of their parents, while males (XY) inherit an X-chromosome from their mother and a Y-chromosome from their father (XY). Ethnicity estimates are often included with this sort of testing.
  • Y-DNA looks at the Y-chromosome, which is passed down from father to son. Thus, the Y-DNA test can only be taken by males to explore their direct paternal line.
  • mtDNA looks at the mitochondria, which is passed down from mother to child. Thus, the mtDNA test can be taken by both males and females, and it explores one's direct maternal line.

Y-DNA and mtDNA cannot be used for ethnicity estimates, but can be used to find one's haplogroup, which is unevenly distributed geographically. Direct-to-consumer DNA test companies have often labeled haplogroups by continent or ethnicity (e.g., an "African haplogroup" or a "Viking haplogroup"), but these labels may be speculative or misleading.

Autosomal DNA (atDNA) testing

Testing

Autosomal DNA is contained in the 22 pairs of chromosomes not involved in determining a person's sex. Autosomal DNA recombines in each generation, and new offspring receive one set of chromosomes from each parent. These are inherited exactly equally from both parents and roughly equally from grandparents to about 3x great-grandparents. Therefore, the number of markers (one of two or more known variants in the genome at a particular location – known as Single-nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs) inherited from a specific ancestor decreases by about half with each successive generation; that is, an individual receives half of their markers from each parent, about a quarter of those markers from each grandparent; about an eighth of those markers from each great-grandparent, etc. Inheritance is more random and unequal from more distant ancestors. Generally, a genealogical DNA test might test about 700,000 SNPs (specific points in the genome).

Shared DNA for different relatives

Reporting process

The preparation of a report on the DNA in the sample proceeds in multiple stages:

  • identification of the DNA base pair at specific SNP locations
  • comparison with previously stored results
  • interpretation of matches
Base pair identification

All major service providers use equipment with chips supplied by Illumina. The chip determines which SNP locations are tested. Different versions of the chip are used by different service providers. In addition, updated versions of the Illumina chip may test different sets of SNP locations. The list of SNP locations and base pairs at that location is usually available to the customer as "raw data". The raw data can be uploaded to some other genealogical service providers to produce an additional interpretation and matches. For additional genealogical analysis the data can also be uploaded to GEDmatch (a third-party web based set of tools that analyzes raw data from the main service providers). Raw data can also be uploaded to services that provide health risk and trait reports using SNP genotypes. These reports may be free or inexpensive, in contrast to reports provided by DTC testing companies, who charge about double the cost of their genealogy-only services. The implications of individual SNP results can be ascertained from raw data results by referring to SNPedia.com.

Identification of Matches

The major component of an autosomal DNA test is matching other individuals. Where the individual being tested has a number of consecutive SNPs in common with a previously tested individual in the company's database, it can be inferred that they share a segment of DNA at that part of their genomes. If the segment is longer than a threshold amount set by the testing company, then these two individuals are considered to be a match. Unlike the identification of base pairs, the data bases against which the new sample is tested, and the algorithms used to determine a match, are proprietary and specific to each company.

The unit for segments of DNA is the centimorgan (cM). For comparison, a full human genome is about 6500 cM. The shorter the length of a match, the greater are the chances that a match is spurious. An important statistic for subsequent interpretation is the length of the shared DNA (or the percentage of the genome that is shared).

Interpretation of Autosomal matches

Most companies will show the customers how many cMs they share and across how many segments. From the number of cMs and segments, the relationship between the two individuals can be estimated; however, due to the random nature of DNA inheritance, relationship estimates, especially for distant relatives, are only approximate. Some more distant cousins will not match at all. Although information about specific SNPs can be used for some purposes (e.g., suggesting likely eye color), the key information is the percentage of DNA shared by two individuals. This can indicate the closeness of the relationship. However, it does not show the roles of the two individuals, e.g., 50% shared suggests a parent/child relationship, but it does not identify which individual is the parent.

Various advanced techniques and analyses can be done on this data. This includes features such as In-common/Shared Matches, Chromosome Browsers, and Triangulation. This analysis is often required if DNA evidence is being used to prove or disprove a specific relationship.

X-chromosome DNA testing

The X-chromosome SNP results are often included in autosomal DNA tests. Both males and females receive an X-chromosome from their mother, but only females receive a second X-chromosome from their father. The X-chromosome has a special path of inheritance patterns and can be useful in significantly narrowing down possible ancestor lines compared to autosomal DNA. For example, an X-chromosome match with a male can only have come from his maternal side. Like autosomal DNA, X-chromosome DNA undergoes random recombination at each generation (except for father-to-daughter X-chromosomes, which are passed down unchanged). There are specialized inheritance charts which describe the possible patterns of X-chromosome DNA inheritance for males and females.

STRs

Some genealogical companies offer autosomal STRs (short tandem repeats). These are similar to Y-DNA STRs. The number of STRs offered is limited, and results have been used for personal identification, paternity cases, and inter-population studies.

Law enforcement agencies in the US and Europe use autosomal STR data to identify criminals.

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) testing

The mitochondrion is a component of a human cell, and contains its own DNA. Mitochondrial DNA usually has 16,569 base pairs (the number can vary slightly depending on addition or deletion mutations) and is much smaller than the human genome DNA which has 3.2 billion base pairs. Mitochondrial DNA is transmitted from mother to child, as it is contained in the egg cell. Thus, a direct maternal ancestor can be traced using mtDNA. The transmission occurs with relatively rare mutations compared to autosomal DNA. A perfect match found to another person's mtDNA test results indicates shared ancestry of possibly between 1 and 50 generations ago. More distant matching to a specific haplogroup or subclade may be linked to a common geographic origin.

Test

The mtDNA, by current conventions, is divided into three regions. They are the coding region (00577-16023) and two Hyper Variable Regions (HVR1 [16024-16569], and HVR2 [00001-00576]).

The two most common mtDNA tests are a sequence of HVR1 and HVR2 and a full sequence of the mitochondria. Generally, testing only the HVRs has limited genealogical use so it is increasingly popular and accessible to have a full sequence. The full mtDNA sequence is only offered by Family Tree DNA among the major testing companies and is somewhat controversial because the coding region DNA may reveal medical information about the test-taker

Haplogroups

Map of human migration out of Africa, according to Mitochondrial DNA. The numbers represent thousands of years before present time. The blue line represents the area covered in ice or tundra during the last great ice age. The North Pole is at the center. Africa, the center of the start of the migration, is at the top left and South America is at the far right.

All humans descend in the direct female line from Mitochondrial Eve, a female who lived probably around 150,000 years ago in Africa. Different branches of her descendants are different haplogroups. Most mtDNA results include a prediction or exact assertion of one's mtDNA Haplogroup. Mitochrondial haplogroups were greatly popularized by the book The Seven Daughters of Eve, which explores mitochondrial DNA.

Understanding mtDNA test results

It is not normal for test results to give a base-by-base list of results. Instead, results are normally compared to the Cambridge Reference Sequence (CRS), which is the mitochondria of a European who was the first person to have their mtDNA published in 1981 (and revised in 1999). Differences between the CRS and testers are usually very few, thus it is more convenient than listing one's raw results for each base pair.

Examples 
Note that in HVR1, instead of reporting the base pair exactly, for example 16,111, the 16 is often removed to give in this example 111. The letters refer to one of the four bases (A, T, G, C) that make up DNA.
Region HVR1 HVR2
Differences from CRS 111T,223T,259T,290T,319A,362C 073G,146C,153G

Y-chromosome (Y-DNA) testing

The Y-chromosome is one of the 23rd pair of human chromosomes. Only males have a Y-chromosome, because women have two X chromosomes in their 23rd pair. A man's patrilineal ancestry, or male-line ancestry, can be traced using the DNA on his Y-chromosome (Y-DNA), because the Y-chromosome is transmitted from a father to son nearly unchanged. A man's test results are compared to another man's results to determine the time frame in which the two individuals shared a most recent common ancestor, or MRCA, in their direct patrilineal lines. If their test results are very close, they are related within a genealogically useful time frame. A surname project is where many individuals whose Y-chromosomes match collaborate to find their common ancestry.

Women who wish to determine their direct paternal DNA ancestry can ask their father, brother, paternal uncle, paternal grandfather, or a paternal uncle's son (their cousin) to take a test for them.

There are two types of DNA testing: STRs and SNPs.

STR markers

Most common is STRs (short tandem repeat). A certain section of DNA is examined for a pattern that repeats (e.g. ATCG). The number of times it repeats is the value of the marker. Typical tests test between 12 and 111 STR markers. STRs mutate fairly frequently. The results of two individuals are then compared to see if there is a match. DNA companies will usually provide an estimate of how closely related two people are, in terms of generations or years, based on the difference between their results.

SNP markers and Haplogroups

Strand 1 differs from strand 2 at a single base pair location (a C → T polymorphism).

A person's haplogroup can often be inferred from their STR results, but can be proven only with a Y-chromosome SNP test (Y-SNP test).

A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is a change to a single nucleotide in a DNA sequence. Typical Y-DNA SNP tests test about 20,000 to 35,000 SNPs. Getting a SNP test allows a much higher resolution than STRs. It can be used to provide additional information about the relationship between two individuals and to confirm haplogroups.

All human men descend in the paternal line from a single man dubbed Y-chromosomal Adam, who lived probably between 200,000 and 300,000 years ago. A 'family tree' can be drawn showing how men today descend from him. Different branches of this tree are different haplogroups. Most haplogroups can be further subdivided multiple times into sub-clades. Some known sub-clades were founded in the last 1000 years, meaning their timeframe approaches the genealogical era (c.1500 onwards).

New sub-clades of haplogroups may be discovered when an individual tests, especially if they are non-European. Most significant of these new discoveries was in 2013 when the haplogroup A00 was discovered, which required theories about Y-chromosomal Adam to be significantly revised. The haplogroup was discovered when an African-American man tested STRs at FamilyTreeDNA and his results were found to be unusual. SNP testing confirmed that he does not descend patrilineally from the "old" Y-chromosomal Adam and so a much older man became Y-Chromosomal Adam.

Using DNA test results

Ethnicity estimates

Many companies offer a percentage breakdown by ethnicity or region. Generally the world is specified into about 20–25 regions, and the approximate percentage of DNA inherited from each is stated. This is usually done by comparing the frequency of each Autosomal DNA marker tested to many population groups. The reliability of this type of test is dependent on comparative population size, the number of markers tested, the ancestry informative value of the SNPs tested, and the degree of admixture in the person tested. Earlier ethnicity estimates were often wildly inaccurate, but as companies receive more samples over time, ethnicity estimates have become more accurate. Testing companies such as Ancestry.com will often regularly update their ethnicity estimates, which has caused some controversy from customers as their results update. Usually the results at the continental level are accurate, but more specific assertions of the test may turn out to be incorrect.

Audience

The interest in genealogical DNA tests has been linked to both an increase in curiosity about traditional genealogy and to more general personal origins. Those who test for traditional genealogy often utilize a combination of autosomal, mitochondrial, and Y-Chromosome tests. Those with an interest in personal ethnic origins are more likely to use an autosomal test. However, answering specific questions about the ethnic origins of a particular lineage may be best suited to an mtDNA test or a Y-DNA test.

Maternal origin tests

For recent genealogy, exact matching on the mtDNA full sequence is used to confirm a common ancestor on the direct maternal line between two suspected relatives. Because mtDNA mutations are very rare, a nearly perfect match is not usually considered relevant to the most recent 1 to 16 generations. In cultures lacking matrilineal surnames to pass down, neither relative above is likely to have as many generations of ancestors in their matrilineal information table as in the above patrilineal or Y-DNA case: for further information on this difficulty in traditional genealogy, due to lack of matrilineal surnames (or matrinames), see Matriname. However, the foundation of testing is still two suspected descendants of one person. This hypothesize and test DNA pattern is the same one used for autosomal DNA and Y-DNA.

Tests for ethnicity and membership of other groups

European genetic structure (based on Autosomal SNPs) by PCA

As discussed above, autosomal tests usually report the ethnic proportions of the individual. These attempt to measure an individual's mixed geographic heritage by identifying particular markers, called ancestry informative markers or AIM, that are associated with populations of specific geographical areas. Geneticist Adam Rutherford has written that these tests "don’t necessarily show your geographical origins in the past. They show with whom you have common ancestry today."

The haplogroups determined by Y-DNA and mtDNA tests are often unevenly geographically distributed. Many direct-to-consumer DNA tests described this association to infer the test-taker's ancestral homeland. Most tests describe haplogroups according to their most frequently associated continent (e.g., a "European haplogroup"). When Leslie Emery and collaborators performed a trial of mtDNA haplogroups as a predictor of continental origin on individuals in the Human Genetic Diversity Panel (HGDP) and 1000 Genomes (1KGP) datasets, they found that only 14 of 23 haplogroups had a success rate above 50% among the HGDP samples, as did "about half" of the haplogroups in the 1KGP. The authors concluded that, for most people, "mtDNA-haplogroup membership provides limited information about either continental ancestry or continental region of origin."

African ancestry

Y-DNA and mtDNA testing may be able to determine with which peoples in present-day Africa a person shares a direct line of part of his or her ancestry, but patterns of historic migration and historical events cloud the tracing of ancestral groups. Due to joint long histories in the US, approximately 30% of African American males have a European Y-Chromosome haplogroup Approximately 58% of African Americans have at least the equivalent of one great-grandparent (13%) of European ancestry. Only about 5% have the equivalent of one great-grandparent of Native American ancestry. By the early 19th century, substantial families of Free Persons of Color had been established in the Chesapeake Bay area who were descended from free people during the colonial period; most of those have been documented as descended from white men and African women (servant, slave or free). Over time various groups married more within mixed-race, black or white communities.

According to authorities like Salas, nearly three-quarters of the ancestors of African Americans taken in slavery came from regions of West Africa. The African-American movement to discover and identify with ancestral tribes has burgeoned since DNA testing became available. African Americans usually cannot easily trace their ancestry during the years of slavery through surname research, census and property records, and other traditional means. Genealogical DNA testing may provide a tie to regional African heritage.

United States – Melungeon testing

Melungeons are one of numerous multiracial groups in the United States with origins wrapped in myth. The historical research of Paul Heinegg has documented that many of the Melungeon groups in the Upper South were descended from mixed-race people who were free in colonial Virginia and the result of unions between the Europeans and Africans. They moved to the frontiers of Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee to gain some freedom from the racial barriers of the plantation areas. Several efforts, including a number of ongoing studies, have examined the genetic makeup of families historically identified as Melungeon. Most results point primarily to a mixture of European and African, which is supported by historical documentation. Some may have Native American heritage as well. Though some companies provide additional Melungeon research materials with Y-DNA and mtDNA tests, any test will allow comparisons with the results of current and past Melungeon DNA studies.

Native American ancestry

The pre-columbian indigenous people of the United States are called "Native Americans" in American English. Autosomal testing, Y-DNA, and mtDNA testing can be conducted to determine the ancestry of Native Americans. A mitochondrial Haplogroup determination test based on mutations in Hypervariable Region 1 and 2 may establish whether a person's direct female line belongs to one of the canonical Native American Haplogroups, A, B, C, D or X. The vast majority of Native American individuals belong to one of the five identified mtDNA Haplogroups. Thus, being in one of those groups provides evidence of potential Native American descent. However, DNA ethnicity results cannot be used as a substitute for legal documentation. Native American tribes have their own requirements for membership, often based on at least one of a person's ancestors having been included on tribal-specific Native American censuses (or final rolls) prepared during treaty-making, relocation to reservations or apportionment of land in the late 19th century and early 20th century. One example is the Dawes Rolls.

Cohanim ancestry

The Cohanim (or Kohanim) is a patrilineal priestly line of descent in Judaism. According to the Bible, the ancestor of the Cohanim is Aaron, brother of Moses. Many believe that descent from Aaron is verifiable with a Y-DNA test: the first published study in genealogical Y-Chromosome DNA testing found that a significant percentage of Cohens had distinctively similar DNA, rather more so than general Jewish or Middle Eastern populations. These Cohens tended to belong to Haplogroup J, with Y-STR values clustered unusually closely around a haplotype known as the Cohen Modal Haplotype (CMH). This could be consistent with a shared common ancestor, or with the hereditary priesthood having originally been founded from members of a single closely related clan.

Nevertheless, the original studies tested only six Y-STR markers, which is considered a low-resolution test. In response to the low resolution of the original 6-marker CMH, the testing company FTDNA released a 12-marker CMH signature that was more specific to the large closely related group of Cohens in Haplogroup J1.

A further academic study published in 2009 examined more STR markers and identified a more sharply defined SNP haplogroup, J1e* (now J1c3, also called J-P58*) for the J1 lineage. The research found "that 46.1% of Kohanim carry Y chromosomes belonging to a single paternal lineage (J-P58*) that likely originated in the Near East well before the dispersal of Jewish groups in the Diaspora. Support for a Near Eastern origin of this lineage comes from its high frequency in our sample of Bedouins, Yemenis (67%), and Jordanians (55%) and its precipitous drop in frequency as one moves away from Saudi Arabia and the Near East (Fig. 4). Moreover, there is a striking contrast between the relatively high frequency of J-58* in Jewish populations (»20%) and Kohanim (»46%) and its vanishingly low frequency in our sample of non-Jewish populations that hosted Jewish diaspora communities outside of the Near East."

Recent phylogenetic research for haplogroup J-M267 placed the "Y-chromosomal Aaron" in a subhaplogroup of J-L862, L147.1 (age estimate 5631-6778yBP yBP): YSC235>PF4847/CTS11741>YSC234>ZS241>ZS227>Z18271 (age estimate 2731yBP).

European testing

Benefits

Genealogical DNA tests have become popular due to the ease of testing at home and their usefulness in supplementing genealogical research. Genealogical DNA tests allow for an individual to determine with high accuracy whether he or she is related to another person within a certain time frame, or with certainty that he or she is not related. DNA tests are perceived as more scientific, conclusive and expeditious than searching the civil records. However, they are limited by restrictions on lines that may be studied. The civil records are always only as accurate as the individuals having provided or written the information.

Y-DNA testing results are normally stated as probabilities: For example, with the same surname a perfect 37/37 marker test match gives a 95% likelihood of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) being within 8 generations, while a 111 of 111 marker match gives the same 95% likelihood of the MRCA being within only 5 generations back.

As presented above in mtDNA testing, if a perfect match is found, the mtDNA test results can be helpful. In some cases, research according to traditional genealogy methods encounters difficulties due to the lack of regularly recorded matrilineal surname information in many cultures (see Matrilineal surname).

Autosomal DNA combined with genealogical research has been used by adoptees to find their biological parents, has been used to find the name and family of unidentified bodies and by law enforcement agencies to apprehend criminals (for example, the Contra Costa County District Attorney's office used the "open-source" genetic genealogy site GEDmatch to find relatives of the suspect in the Golden State Killer case.) The Atlantic magazine commented in 2018 that "Now, the floodgates are open. ..a small, volunteer-run website, GEDmatch.com, has become ... the de facto DNA and genealogy database for all of law enforcement." Family Tree DNA announced in February 2019 it was allowing the FBI to access its DNA data for cases of murder and rape. However, in May 2019 GEDmatch initiated stricter rules for accessing their autosomal DNA database and Family Tree DNA shut down their Y-DNA database ysearch.org, making it more difficult for law enforcement agencies to solve cases.

Drawbacks

Common concerns about genealogical DNA testing are cost and privacy issues. Some testing companies, such as 23andMe and Ancestry, retain samples and results for their own use without a privacy agreement with subjects.

Autosomal DNA tests can identify relationships but they can be misinterpreted. For example, transplants of stem cell or bone marrow will produce matches with the donor. In addition, identical twins (who have identical DNA) can give unexpected results.

Testing of the Y-DNA lineage from father to son may reveal complications, due to unusual mutations, secret adoptions, and non-paternity events (i.e., that the perceived father in a generation is not the father indicated by written birth records). According to the Ancestry and Ancestry Testing Task Force of the American Society of Human Genetics, autosomal tests cannot detect "large portions" of DNA from distant ancestors because it has not been inherited.

With the increasing popularity of the use of DNA tests for ethnicity tests, uncertainties and errors in ethnicity estimates are a drawback for Genetic genealogy. While ethnicity estimates at the continental level should be accurate (with the possible exception of East Asia and the Americas), sub-continental estimates, especially in Europe, are often inaccurate. Customers may be misinformed about the uncertainties and errors of the estimates.

Some have recommended government or other regulation of ancestry testing to ensure its performance to an agreed standard.

A number of law enforcement agencies took legal action to compel genetic genealogy companies to release genetic information that could match cold case crime victims or perpetrators. A number of companies fought the requests.

Medical information

Though genealogical DNA tests are not designed mainly for medical purposes, autosomal DNA tests can be used to analyze the probability of hundreds of heritable medical conditions, albeit the result is complex to understand and may confuse a non-expert. 23andMe provides medical and trait information from their genealogical DNA test and for a fee the Promethease web site analyses genealogical DNA test data from Family Tree DNA, 23andMe, or AncestryDNA for medical information. Promethease, and its research paper crawling database SNPedia, has received criticism for technical complexity and a poorly defined "magnitude" scale that causes misconceptions, confusion and panic among its users.

The testing of full MtDNA and YDNA sequences is still somewhat controversial as it may reveal even more medical information. For example, a correlation exists between a lack of Y-DNA marker DYS464 and infertility, and between mtDNA haplogroup H and protection from sepsis. Certain haplogroups have been linked to longevity in some population groups. The field of linkage disequilibrium, unequal association of genetic disorders with a certain mitochondrial lineage, is in its infancy, but those mitochondrial mutations that have been linked are searchable in the genome database Mitomap. Family Tree DNA's MtFull Sequence test analyses the full MtDNA genome and the National Human Genome Research Institute operates the Genetic And Rare Disease Information Center that can assist consumers in identifying an appropriate screening test and help locate a nearby medical center that offers such a test.

DNA in genealogy software

Some genealogy software programs – such as Family Tree Maker, Legacy Family Tree (Deluxe Edition) and the Swedish program Genney – allow recording DNA marker test results. This allows for tracking of both Y-chromosome and mtDNA tests, and recording results for relatives.

Friday, March 24, 2023

Missing person

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

A missing person is a person who has disappeared and whose status as alive or dead cannot be confirmed as their location and condition are unknown. A person may go missing through a voluntary disappearance, or else due to an accident, crime, death in a location where they cannot be found (such as at sea), or many other reasons. In most parts of the world, a missing person will usually be found quickly. While criminal abductions are some of the most widely reported missing person cases, these account for only 2–5% of missing children in Europe.

By contrast, some missing person cases remain unresolved for many years. Laws related to these cases are often complex since, in many jurisdictions, relatives and third parties may not deal with a person's assets until their death is considered proven by law and a formal death certificate issued. The situation, uncertainties, and lack of closure or a funeral resulting when a person goes missing may be extremely painful with long-lasting effects on family and friends.

A number of organizations seek to connect, share best practices, and disseminate information and images of missing children to improve the effectiveness of missing children investigations, including the International Commission on Missing Persons, the International Centre for Missing & Exploited Children (ICMEC), as well as national organizations, including the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children in the US, Missing People in the UK, Child Focus in Belgium, and The Smile of the Child in Greece.

Reasons

People disappear for many reasons. Some individuals choose to disappear, for others disappearance is inadvertent (e.g. getting lost) or it is imposed on them (abduction/imprisonment). Reasons for disappearance may include:

Categories of missing children

  • Runaways: Minors who run away from home, from the institution where they have been placed, or from the people responsible for their care.
  • Thrownaways: Minors who are abandoned by their parents or guardians.
  • Parental abduction: Minors who are abducted by their parents or guardians for unknown reasons.
  • Non-parental abduction: Minors who are abducted by non-parental means. (e.g. random kidnapping on streets by random people.)
  • Missing unaccompanied migrant minors: Disappearances of migrant children, nationals of a country in which there is no free movement of persons, under the age of 18 who have been separated from both parents and are not being cared for by an adult, who by law is responsible for doing so.
  • Lost, injured or otherwise missing children: Disappearances for no apparent reason of minors who got lost (e.g., young children at the seaside in summer) or hurt themselves and cannot be found immediately (e.g. accidents during sport activities, at youth camps, etc.), as well as children whose reason for disappearing has not yet been determined or found.

Legal aspects

A common misconception is that a person must be absent for at least 24 hours before being legally classed as missing, but this is rarely the case. Law enforcement agencies often stress that the case should be reported as early as possible. In fact it is extremely crucial to report a missing person as soon as possible. This is in order to make take immediate action in the vital first 48 hours after a person is declared missing. In these 48 hours the police will be able to interview any eyewitness and get any suspect descriptions while it is still fresh in their minds.

In most common law jurisdictions a missing person can be declared dead in absentia (or "legally dead") after seven years. This time frame may be reduced in certain cases, such as deaths in major battles or mass disasters such as the September 11 attacks.

Searches

In most countries, the police are the default agency for leading an investigation into a missing person case. Disappearances at sea are a general exception, as these require a specialized agency such as a coast guard. In many countries, such as the United States, voluntary search and rescue teams can be called out to assist the police in the search. Rescue agencies such as fire departments, mountain rescue and cave rescue may also participate in cases that require their specialized resources.

Police forces such as Lancashire Constabulary stress the need to try to find the person quickly, to assess how vulnerable the person is, and to search places that the person may have links to.

Various charities exist to assist the investigations into unsolved cases. These include the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children in the US, Missing People in the UK, Child Focus in Belgium, and The Smile of the Child in Greece. Some missing person cases are given wide media coverage, with the searchers turning to the public for assistance. The persons' photographs may be displayed on bulletin boards, milk cartons, postcards, websites and social media to publicize their description.

Torchlight procession on the 23rd of February 2019 in Trondheim, Norway for the search of missing boy Odin Andre Hagen Jacobsen who has been missing since 18th November 2018. The people protest to demand from the police to strengthen their efforts and for the media to give the case more coverage. Sign says: "We want Odin home".

Media coverage

Ethnicity and socioeconomic status

A racial disparity between the American news media response when a white individual goes missing and when a black individual goes missing has been observed. According to Seong-Jae Min & John C. Feaster, throughout history the news media has provided white individuals, particularly affluent women, more comprehensive news coverage than people of color. The authors have noted that while a correlation has been established, they have no clear causation. They suggest that the socioeconomic status or attractiveness of a child may also influence their chances of appearing in the news media.

American journalist Howard Kurtz, best known for his analysis of the media, supported the conclusion that a person's race and socioeconomic status impacted media coverage. He gave the kidnappings of Elizabeth Smart and Alexis Patterson as an example—when Smart, a young affluent Caucasian girl from Utah, went missing, the media coverage was worldwide. After several months of searching, she was found alive. In comparison, when Patterson, a young black girl from Wisconsin, went missing, she received only local news coverage and is still missing to this day.

Within the U.S., there are several organizations that bring awareness and equality to missing people of color, such as the Black and Missing Foundation, a non-profit organization founded in 2008. The Black and Missing Foundation's goal is to provide resources to families of missing people of color and educate minority groups on personal safety. Additionally, Deidra Robey leads a non-profit organization called Black and Missing but not Forgotten, which provides assistance in spreading awareness about a missing person.

It has also been speculated by Kristen Gilchrist that, in Canadian news media, Aboriginal women receive three and a half times less coverage than white women. Their articles were found to be shorter and less detailed—with an average word count for white women of 713 compared to 518 for Aboriginal women—and less likely to be front-page news. Depictions of the Aboriginals were also described by Gilchrist as more "detached" in tone.

Emphasis on stranger kidnappings

Some of the most widely covered missing person cases have been kidnappings of children by strangers; however these instances are rare. In most parts of the world, criminal abductions make up only a small percentage of missing person cases and, in turn, most of these abductions are by someone who knows the child (such as a non-custodial parent). A child staying too long with a non-custodial parent can be enough to qualify as an abduction. During the year 1999 in the United States, there were an estimated 800,000 reported missing children cases. Of these, 203,900 children were reported as the victims of family abductions and 58,200 of non-family abductions. However, only 115 were the result of "stereotypical" kidnaps (by someone unknown or of slight acquaintance to the child, taking them a long distance with intent to murder or to hold them permanently or for ransom).

International statistics and efforts

The Wall Street Journal reported in 2012 that: "It is estimated that some 8 million children go missing around the world each year." The BBC News reported that of the children who go missing worldwide, "while usually the child is found quickly the ordeal can sometimes last months, even years."

The issue of child disappearances is increasingly recognized as a concern for national and international policy makers especially in cross border abduction cases, organized child trafficking and child pornography as well as the transient nature of unaccompanied minors seeking asylum.

According to the UNHCR, over 15,000 unaccompanied and separated children claimed asylum in the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in 2009. The precarious situation of these children makes them particularly vulnerable to human rights abuses, rendering their protection critical, given the high risks to which they are exposed. Most of these children are boys aged 14 years and over, with diverse ethnic, cultural, religious and social backgrounds mainly originating from Afghanistan, Somalia, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Iraq.

Among exploiters taking advantage of the children, are sometimes their own relatives who gain benefit in the form of social and/or family allowances. According to research done by Frontex, some types of threats faced by unaccompanied migrant minors include sexual exploitation in terms of pornography, prostitution and the internet; economic exploitation including forced donation of organs; criminal exploitation including drug smuggling and child trafficking including forced marriage and begging.

Criminal networks are heavily involved with human trafficking to the EU and this includes also exploitation of minors as manpower in the sex trade and other criminal activities. According to a 2007 UNICEF report on Child Trafficking in Europe, 2 million children are being trafficked in Europe every year. Child trafficking occurs in virtually all countries in Europe. There is no clear-cut distinction between countries of origin and destination in Europe. Trafficking in children has been perceived mainly in connection with sexual exploitation, but the reality is much more complex. Children in Europe are also trafficked for exploitation through labor, domestic servitude, begging, criminal activities and other exploitative purposes.

A sailor assigned to Naval Computer Telecommunications Station (NCTS) Guam, fingerprints Alexis Kosak during the 11th annual Project KidCare event held at Agana Shopping Center. The project's goal is to assist local authorities with locating and recovering missing children and inform the public about ways to prevent child abduction.

In the report, UNICEF also warns that there is a dramatic absence of harmonized and systematic data collection, analysis and dissemination at all levels without which countries lack important evidence that informs national policies and responses. Missing Children Europe, the European federation for missing children, aims to meet this need. The CRM system is expected to have a clear impact on the way hotlines are able to work together and collect data on the problem of missing children.

The British Asylum Screening Unit estimated that 60% of the unaccompanied minors accommodated in social care centres in the UK go missing and are not found again. In the UK these open centres, from where minors are able to call their traffickers, act as 'human markets' for the facilitators and traffickers who generally collect their prey within 24 hours of arrival in the UK. According to the CIA out of the 800,000 people trafficked annually across national borders in the world, up to 50% are minors.

The United Nations is operating a Commission on Missing Persons that serves as an international coordination center and provides also statistical material regarding missing persons worldwide. The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement strives to clarify the fate and whereabouts of missing persons when loss of contact is due to armed conflict or other situations of violence; natural or man-made disaster; migration and in other situations of humanitarian need. It is also supporting the families of missing persons to rebuild their social lives and find emotional well-being.

Laws and statistics by country

Austria

Austria has a competence center for missing persons. The police records the missing person's data, which is stored in the Austrian Search System (EKIS) and (automatically) in the Schengen Information System (SIS).

In 2016, a total of 8,887 cases were processed and stored in the EKIS. Of these, 6,322 cases involved EU citizens, except for 44 resolved, and 2,565 non-EU citizens, except for 264 resolved. As of October 1, 2017, a total of 1,300 people were reported missing in Austria: 349 were women, 198 of whom were minors; 951 were male, of whom 597 were minors. The number of EU citizens who were stored in the EKIS as missing was between 400 and 500 at all times mentioned in 2015/2016/2017. In 2017, 10,000 missing person reports were filed in Austria. As of May 1, 2018, 1,267 people had been reported missing, including 746 children and young people. Only 505 came from EU countries.

In January 2019, 1037 people were recorded as missing in the EKIS, in January 2020 884 people. Between 2016 and 2019, 85 percent of missing persons cases were resolved within a week, 95 percent within a month, 97 percent within six months and 98 percent within a year. In 2019, the KAP published a search in only 13 cases, the result of which was: 8 alive, 3 dead, 2 still missing.

The legal status of missing persons in Austria is regulated by the Declaration of Death Act (Todeserklärungsgesetz).

Australia

Over 305,000 people were reported missing in Australia from 2008–2015 (Bricknell, 2017), which is estimated to be one person reported missing every 18 minutes (Henderson, Henderson & Kienan, 2000). Around 38,159 missing person reports are made on average every year in Australia (Bricknell, 2017). James, Anderson and Putt (2008) found that around 12,001 females and 12,505 males went missing in Australia in 2008.

Canada

Royal Canadian Mounted Police missing child statistics for a ten-year period show a total of 60,582 missing children in 2007.

France

The file named Fichier des personnes recherchées (FPR) is a data collection of the French national police. It is also under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Defence.

Ireland

On May 26, 2002, a monument to missing persons was unveiled in County Kilkenny, Ireland by President Mary McAleese. It was the first monument of its kind in the world.

Jamaica

The founder of Jamaica's Hear the Children's Cry, child-rights advocate Betty Ann Blaine, asked the government to introduce missing-children legislation in Jamaica. She said in May 2015: "Jamaica is facing a crisis of missing children. Every single month, we have approximately 150 reports of children who go missing. That is a crisis because we are only 2.7 million people." She said her organization would work with the International Centre for Missing & Exploited Children (ICMEC) to recommend a model law to the Parliament of Jamaica.

Japan

It has been estimated that one hundred thousand Japanese people disappear annually. The term jouhatsu refers to the people in Japan who purposely vanish from their established lives without a trace.

Latin America

In the 1970s and 1980s, almost all South American countries were ruled for a long time by right-wing military dictatorships. Most of them violently suppressed the opposition, usually with the secret kidnapping of unwanted people by unnamed members of the security forces.

While the families reported the disappearances, the victims were unjustly imprisoned, tortured and finally killed. In Argentina, they were loaded onto a plane and thrown into the sea. During the Argentina's military dictatorship (1976-1983), almost 30,000 people disappeared in this way, permanently and without leaving any trace.

Russia

According to a report by the Russian news agency TASS released in 2018, between 70,000 and 100,000 people go missing in Russia every year. About 25% of missing persons cases remain unsolved.

Switzerland

The cantonal police are responsible for reports of disappearances, which do not have specialized sections on the matter. The complaint can be filed one year after an event that can be linked to a danger to life or five years after the last sign of life of the interested person. If the person found by the authorities is of age, they can only inform other people with her consent.

Police search and emergency room costs are usually charged in part or in full to the applicants. Helicopter searches are particularly expensive. The insurance covers the costs if the situation was not caused by gross negligence, if there is a risk of death and if there is a reasonable chance of survival.

A relatively large number of people are lost in Switzerland due to accidents in alpine sports. In the event of melting glaciers, the police have issued instructions on how to deal with the bodies: photograph the finds, mark them, write down the coordinates and, if there is a risk that the finds or their location may not be found a second time, they must be picked up and delivered to the nearest police station.

United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, The Huffington Post reported in 2012, over 140,000 children go missing each year, as calculated by the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre (CEOP) of the United Kingdom's National Crime Agency.

United States

Statistical information on missing persons in the USA is provided by annual National Crime Information Center (NCIC) "Missing Person and Unidentified Person Statistics", annual AMBER Alert Reports (minors only) and a comprehensive 2002 NISMART–2 study (covering children missing in year 1999).

AMBER Alerts are reserved for confirmed abductions, where child is at risk of serious injury or death. In 2018, 161 such alerts were issued, concerning 203 children. Of those 161 cases, 23 were found to be hoaxes or unfounded (minor was not missing), 92 were familial abductions, 38 were non-familial abductions and remaining 8 were runaways, lost, injured or unclassified. As of early 2019, 11 children were still missing and 7 were found deceased, with remaining children having been recovered. Notably, even though all states have operational AMBER program, 16 did not issue any alerts in 2018.

National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway Children (NISMART–2) study by the U.S. Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention from 2002 comprehensively described missing children cases for year 1999. The study considered a child missing when the child's whereabouts were unknown to the primary caretaker, with the result that the caretaker was alarmed for at least 1 hour and tried to locate the child. The estimated number of "caretaker missing children (reported and not reported)" was around 1.3 million, with about 800 thousand missing children estimated to have been reported. The 1,300,000 number is further broken down into approximately 33,000 non-familial abductions, 117,000 familial abductions, 629,000 runaway/thrownaway cases, 198,000 lost/injured, and 375,000 "benign explanations". By the time the study data were collected, 99.8% of 1.3 million caretaker missing children had been returned home alive or located. Only 0.2% percent or 2,500 had not, the vast majority of which were runaways from institutions. Furthermore, only an estimated 115 of 33,000 non-familial abductions were stereotypical kidnappings, involving a stranger or slight acquaintance, who holds the child for ransom, abducts with intent to kill or keep permanently. Data in the study was derived from a Law Enforcement Study, National Household Surveys of both Adult Caretakers and Youth (telephone interviews) and a Juvenile Facilities Study. The estimated number of 800,000 missing children reports has been widely circulated in the popular press.

The United States' National Crime Information Center (NCIC) of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, mandated by the National Child Search Assistance Act, maintains its own "Missing Person File" to which local police report people for whom they are searching. The NCIC "Missing Person File" does have a category that is entitled "Juvenile" or "EMJ" (for: Enter Missing Person - Juvenile), but that category does not reflect the total number of all juveniles reported missing to the NCIC, for whom local police are searching. The NCIC also uses its own classification criteria; it does not use the above NISMART definitions of what constitutes a missing child. The NCIC data is limited to individuals who have been reported to the NCIC as missing, and are being searched for, by local police. In addition, the EMJ category does not contain all reports of juveniles who have been reported missing to the NCIC. While the EMJ category holds records of some of the juveniles reported missing, the totals for the EMJ category excludes those juveniles recorded missing but who "have a proven physical or mental disability ... are missing under circumstances indicating that they may be in physical danger ... are missing after a catastrophe ... [or] are missing under circumstances indicating their disappearance may not have been voluntary". In 2013, the NCIC entered 445,214 "EMJ" reports (440,625 in the EMJ category under the age of 18; but 462,567 under the age of 18 in all categories, and 494,372 under the age of 21 in all categories), and NCIC's total reports numbered 627,911. Of the children under age 18, a total of 4,883 reports were classified as "missing under circumstances indicating that the disappearance may not have been voluntary, i.e., abduction or kidnapping" (9,572 under age 21), and an additional 9,617 as "missing under circumstances indicating that his/her physical safety may be in danger" (15,163 under age 21). The total missing person records entered into NCIC were 661,593 in 2012, 678,860 in 2011 (550,424 of whom were under 21), 692,944 in 2010 (531,928 of whom were under 18, and 565,692 of whom were under 21), and 719,558 in 2009. A total of 630,990 records were cleared or canceled during 2013. At end-of-year 2013, NCIC had 84,136 still-active missing person records, with 33,849 (40.2%) being of juveniles under 18, and 9,706 (11.5%) being of juveniles between 18 and 20.

European Union

116 000 is the European hotline for missing children active in all 27 countries of the EU as well as Albania, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. The hotline was an initiative pushed for by Missing Children Europe, the European federation for missing and sexually exploited children.

The Council of Europe estimates that about 1 in 5 children in Europe are victims of some form of sexual violence. In 70% to 85% of cases, the abuser is somebody the child knows and trusts. Child sexual violence can take many forms: sexual abuse within the family circle, child pornography and prostitution, corruption, solicitation via Internet and sexual assault by peers. In some of the cases, with no other available option, children flee their homes and care institutions, in search of a better and safer life.

Of the 50–60% of child runaways reported by the 116 000 European missing children hotline network, 1 in 6 are assumed to rough sleep on the run, 1 in 8 resort to stealing to survive and 1 in 4 children are at serious risk of some form of abuse. The number of rough sleeping children across Europe is on the rise. These runaways fall into vulnerable situations of sexual abuse, alcohol abuse and drug abuse leading to depression. Runaways are 9 times likelier to have suicidal tendencies than other children. The Children's Society published a report in 2011 on recommendations to the government to keep child runaways safe.

Butane

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ...