Feral child

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feral_child

 

Mowgli was a fictional feral child in Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book.

A feral child (also called wild child) is a young individual who has lived isolated from human contact from a very young age, with little or no experience of human care, social behavior, or language. The term is used to refer to children who have suffered severe abuse or trauma before being abandoned or running away. They are sometimes the subjects of folklore and legends, typically portrayed as having been raised by animals. While there are many cases of children being found in proximity to wild animals, there are no eyewitness accounts of animals feeding children.

Description

Feral children lack the basic social skills that are normally learned in the process of enculturation. For example, they may be unable to learn to use a toilet, have trouble learning to walk upright after walking on fours all their lives, or display a complete lack of interest in the human activity around them. They often seem mentally impaired and have almost insurmountable trouble learning a human language. The impaired ability to learn a natural language after having been isolated for so many years is often attributed to the existence of a critical period for language learning, and taken as evidence in favor of the critical period hypothesis.

There is little scientific knowledge about feral children. One of the best-documented cases has supposedly been that of sisters Amala and Kamala, described by Reverend J. A. L. Singh in 1926 as having been "raised by wolves" in a forest in India. French surgeon Serge Aroles, however, has persuasively argued that the case was a fraud, perpetrated by Singh in order to raise money for his orphanage. Child psychologist Bruno Bettelheim states that Amala and Kamala were born mentally and physically disabled. Yet other scientific studies of feral children exist, such as the case of Genie.

History

Prior to the 1600s, feral and wild children stories were usually limited to myths and legends. In those tales, the depiction of feral children included hunting for food, running on all fours instead of two, and not knowing language. Philosophers and scientists were interested in the concept of such children, and began to question if these children were part of a different species from the human family.

The question was taken seriously as science tried to name and categorize the development of humans, and the understanding of the natural world in the 18th and 19th century. Around the 20th century, psychologists were attempting to differentiate between biological behavior and culture. Feral children who lived in isolation or with animals provided examples of this dilemma.

Journalistic accounts of children raised by animals

Raised by primates/monkeys

• Marina Chapman claimed to have lived with weeper capuchin monkeys in the Colombian jungle from the age of five to about nine, following a botched kidnapping in about 1954. Unusual for feral children, she went on to marry, have children and live a largely normal life with no persisting problems.
• Robert Mayanja (1982) lost his parents in the Ugandan Civil War at the age of three, when Milton Obote's soldiers raided their village, around 50 miles (80 km) from Kampala. Robert then survived in the wild, presumably with vervet monkeys, for three years until he was found by soldiers of National Resistance Army.
• Saturday Mthiyane (or Mifune) (1987), a boy of around five, was found after spending about a year in the company of monkeys in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. He was given the name Saturday after the day he was found, and Mthiyane was the name of the headmistress of the Special School which took him in. At the age of around 17, he could still not talk, and still walked and jumped like a monkey. He never ate cooked food and refused to share or play with other children. In 2005 he was killed in a fire.
• John Ssebunya, from Uganda, was a toddler when his father killed his mother and hanged himself. Instead of going into a care facility, he went to live with vervet monkeys. For two years he learned how to forage and travel. The monkeys protected him in the wild. When he was around seven years old, he was brought back to civilization. According to a local villager, the only forms of communication he was capable of were crying and demanding food, and he was a "wild boy" whom everyone feared.

Raised by wolves

Dina Sanichar as a young man, ca. 1889–1894

• Hessian wolf-children (1304, 1341 and 1344) lived with the Eurasian wolf in the forests of Hesse.
• Dina Sanichar, discovered among wolves in a cave in Sikandra (near Agra) in Uttar Pradesh, India in 1872, at the age of 6. He went on to live among humans for over twenty years, including picking up smoking, but never learned to speak and remained seriously impaired for his entire life.
• Marcos Rodríguez Pantoja (c. 1946, Sierra Morena, Spain) lived for 12 years with wolves in the mountains of Southern Spain. He was discovered at age 19. Rodríguez's story was depicted in the 2010 Spanish-German film Entrelobos. For his portrayal of Rodríguez, young actor Manuel Camacho received a Best New Actor nomination at the 2011 Goya Awards.

Raised by dogs

• Oxana Malaya was an eight-year-old Ukrainian girl who lived with Black Russian Terriers for six years. She was found in a kennel with dogs in 1991. She was neglected by her parents, who were alcoholics. The three-year-old, looking for comfort, crawled into the farm and snuggled in with the dogs. Her behavior imitated dogs more than humans. She walked on all fours, bared her teeth, and barked. She was removed from her parents' custody by the social services. As she lacked human contact she did not know any words besides "yes" and "no". Upon adulthood, Oxana has been taught to subdue her dog-like behavior. She learned to speak fluently and intelligently and works at the farm milking cows, but remains somewhat intellectually impaired.
• Ivan Mishukov, a six-year-old boy born in Reutov, Russia, was rescued by the police in 1998 from wild dogs, with whom he lived for two years. He ran from his mother and her abusive alcoholic boyfriend at the age of four. He earned the dogs' trust by giving them food and in return the dogs protected him. The boy had risen to being "alpha male" of the pack. When the police found him, they set a trap for him and the dogs by leaving food in a restaurant kitchen. Because he had lived among the dogs for only two years, he relearned language fairly rapidly. He studied in military school and served in the Russian Army.
• A 10-year-old Chilean boy (Dog Boy) was rescued after living with street dogs for two years. At the age of five, the boy was abandoned by his parents. After fleeing a subsequent child care facility, he roamed the streets with 15 stray dogs. He spent his time with them living in a cave and searching for food, sometimes finding leftovers in garbage cans. In 2001, his situation was brought to the attention of the police. Upon a rescue attempt, the boy tried to escape by jumping into frigid ocean water. However, he was caught and hospitalized. He exhibited depression and aggressive tendencies, and although he could speak, he would rarely do so.
• Traian Căldărar, Romania (found in 2002) also known as "the Romanian Dog Boy" or "Mowgli". From the ages of four to seven, Traian lived without his family. The boy was found at the age of seven and was described as a three-year-old due to undernutrition. His mother had left her home because of domestic violence, and Traian ran from home sometime after his mother left. He lived in the wild and took shelter in a cardboard box. He suffered from infected wounds, having poor circulation, and a children's disease caused by vitamin D deficiency. Traian was found by Manolescu Ioan, who had been walking across the country after his car broke down. In the surrounding area, a dog that had been eaten was also found. Many assume that the boy was eating the dog to stay alive. When Traian was being cared for, he would usually sleep under the bed and wanted to eat all the time. In 2007, Traian was being taken care of by his grandfather and was doing well in 3rd grade at school.
• Andrei Tolstyk (2004) was raised by dogs in a remote part of Siberia from the age of three months to 7 years. He was neglected by his parents because he had speaking and hearing problems. Social workers who found the boy were curious about why the boy was not admitted to his local school. This boy was not able to talk as he lacked human interaction and had many dog-like characteristics including walking on all fours, biting people, and sniffing his food before eating.
• Madina, a three-year-old girl found in Russia in 2013. Madina lived with dogs from birth until she was three years old. She slept with them in the cold, ate food with them, and played with them. Her father left her after she was born, which caused her mother to become an alcoholic and neglect Madina. When found by social workers in 2013 she was completely nude and engaged in dog-like behavior including chewing on bones. Afterwards doctors confirmed that she was still mentally and physically capable despite being neglected for nearly her entire life.

Raised by bears

• The three Lithuanian bear-boys (1657, 1669, 1694) – Serge Aroles shows from the archives of the Queen of Poland (1664–1688) that these are false. There was only one boy who lived in the forests of Lithuania with the Eurasian brown bear; he was found in the spring of 1663 and then brought to Poland's capital.

Raised by sheep

• An Irish boy brought up by sheep, reported by Nicolaes Tulp in his book Observationes Medicae (1672). Serge Aroles gives evidence that this boy was severely disabled and was exhibited for money.
• A 14-year-old boy also known as the sheep boy (2009), was found in Kyrgyzstan living in a sheep flock. He was raised by sheep for 8 years. He had no communication skills and could not use the toilet. His parents left to find work and he was left with his grandmother. His grandmother took care of him until she died.

Raised by cattle

• The Bamberg boy – who grew up among cattle (late 16th century).

Raised by goats

• Daniel, Andes Goat Boy (1990) lived in the wild for about 8 years. He was discovered in the mountains of Peru and was raised by goats or llamas. He walked and ran on all fours with the mountain goats. He drank goat's milk, and ate berries and roots.

Other cases

Kaspar Hauser.

• Jean de Liège. Described by natural philosopher Sir Kenelm Digby in his book 'Two Treatises' (1644).
• The girl of Oranienburg (1717).
• The two Pyrenean boys (1719).
• Peter the Wild Boy of Hamelin (1724) – Mentally disabled boy, affected with Pitt-Hopkins Syndrome. He lived only one year in the wild.
• Victor of Aveyron (1800) – Victor was a feral child in the forests of Aveyron for twelve years. The subject is treated with a certain amount of realism in François Truffaut's 1970 film L'Enfant Sauvage (UK: The Wild Boy, US: The Wild Child), where a scientist's efforts in trying to rehabilitate a feral boy meet with great difficulty.
• Marie-Angélique Memmie Le Blanc, was a famous feral child of the 18th century in France who was known as The Wild Girl of Champagne, The Maid of Châlons, or The Wild Child of Songy. Marie-Angélique survived for ten years living wild in the forests of France, between the ages of nine and 19, before she was captured by villagers in Songy in Champagne in September 1731. She was likely born in 1712 as a Native American of the Meskwaki (or "Fox") people, and brought to France in 1720; or she was born in an unknown location in 1712. Marie died in Paris in 1775. Documents show that she learned to read and write as an adult, thus making her unique among feral children.
• Hany Istók (a.k.a. Steve of the Marsh) of Kapuvár, Hungary (1749). According to documents stored at the Catholic parish of Kapuvár, an abandoned child was once found in a marshy lakeside forest by two fishermen. He was brought to the town of Kapuvár, where he was christened and received the name Steven. The local governor took him to his castle and tried to raise him, but the boy eventually escaped and ran back to the forest. Later, numerous folk tales developed around his character, depicting him as a "half fish, half human creature" who lived in a nearby lake.
• Kaspar Hauser (early 19th century), portrayed in the 1974 Werner Herzog film The Enigma of Kaspar Hauser (Jeder für sich und Gott gegen alle), who existed but whose account of his own early isolation may well have been a hoax.
• Ramachandra (1970s and 1980s) – First reported in 1973 in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, at roughly 12 years old, and as living an amphibian lifestyle in the Kuwano River. He was rescued in 1979 and taken to a nearby village. He only partly adapted to a conventional lifestyle, still preferring raw food, walking with an awkward gait, and spending most of his time alone in nearby rivers and streams. He died in 1982 after approaching a woman who was frightened by him, and who badly scalded Ramachandra with boiling water. Historian Mike Dash speculates that Ramachandra's uncharacteristically bold approach to the woman was sparked by a burgeoning sexual attraction coupled with his ignorance of cultural mores and taboos.
• Cambodian jungle girl (2007) – Alleged to be Rochom P'ngieng, who lived 19 years in the Cambodian jungle. Other sources questioned these claims. In August 2016, after immigration officials spent two weeks reviewing the case, the woman left Cambodia with her family and returned to Vietnam. Vietnamese media reported that her birth father discovered her through photographs on Facebook. The woman never learned to speak while living with her adoptive family in Cambodia, and according to her Vietnamese birth family, she has been that way since birth.
• Name Unknown, Uzbekistan (2007) – A teenage boy found acting like a wild animal and snarling in the mountains of Samarkand after being reported missing in 1998.
• Ng Chhaidy, Theiva near Saiha, Mizoram, India (2012) – She went missing in a jungle aged four, returning 38 years later. When she was first seen, she was naked, long-haired, and with long fingernails, which caused her to be seen as a "wild woman".
• Ho Van Lang (2013) was found in Quang Ngai, Vietnam. His father, Ho Van Thanh, took him into the jungle (leaving behind a brother, Ho Van Tri) to flee from the Vietnam War where he was raised for four decades in isolation. Upon discovery he barely spoke a few words of the local dialect from the Cor minority. According to his brother, he was developmentally stunted like a child and could not distinguish good from bad. He died of liver cancer on September 7, 2021, at age 52.

Alleged cases of feral children

Ancient reports

The historian Herodotus wrote that Egyptian pharaoh Psammetichus I (Psamtik) sought to discover the origin of language, and prove Egypt was the oldest people on Earth by conducting an experiment with two children. Allegedly, he gave two newborn babies to a shepherd, with the instructions that no one should speak to them, but that the shepherd should feed and care for them while listening to determine their first words. The hypothesis was that the first word would be uttered in the root language of all people. When both of the children cried βεκος (bekos) with outstretched arms, the shepherd concluded that the word was Phrygian because that was the sound of the Phrygian word for bread. Thus, they concluded that the Phrygians were an older people than the Egyptians.

Modern reports

• The Lobo Wolf Girl of Devil's River (1845) – A figure in Texas folklore, was captured in 1846, but escaped. She was last spotted at age 17 in 1852.
• Vicente Caucau (1948) – Chilean boy found in a savage state at age 12, allegedly raised by pumas.
• The "ostrich boy" – A boy named Hadara was lost by his parents in the Sahara desert at the age of two, and was adopted by ostriches. At the age of 12, he was rescued and taken back to society and his parents. He later married and had children. The story of Hadara is often told in west Sahara. In 2000, Hadara's son Ahmedu told his father's story to the Swedish author of children's books, Monica Zak. Zak states that she did not believe the story but published it as an example of tales told in the desert. Zak states: "This book I have built on all the strange and exciting details I got from Hadara's son, the rest I have fantasized together."

Raised in confinement

• Isabelle (1938) was almost seven years old when she was discovered. She had spent the first years of her life isolated in a dark room with her mother, who was deaf and unable to speak, as her only contact. Only seven months later, she had learned a vocabulary of around 1,500 to 2,000 words. She is reported to have acquired normal linguistic abilities.
• Anna (1938) was six years old when she was found, having been kept in a dark room for most of her life. She was born in March 1932 in Pennsylvania, United States. She was her mother's second illegitimate child. Her mother had tried to give Anna up for several months but no agency was willing to take the financial burden, as this was during the Great Depression. Anna was kept in a store room at least until she was five and half, out of the way of her disapproving grandfather, who was infuriated by her presence. Her mother also resented her, considering her troublesome. She was tied to a broken chair which was too small for her, and is believed to have also been tied to a cot for long periods of time. She was mostly fed milk and was never bathed, trained, or caressed by anyone. When she was found, she was suffering from malnutrition as well as muscle atrophy. She was immobile, expressionless, and indifferent to everything. She was believed to be deaf as she did not respond to others (later it was found that her deafness was functional rather than physical). She could not talk, walk, feed herself, or do anything that showed signs of cognition. Once she was taken away and placed in a foster home, she showed signs of improvement. At the age of 9, she began to develop speech. She had started to conform to social norms and was able to feed herself, though only using a spoon. Her teachers described her as having a pleasant disposition. Anna died on August 6, 1942, at the age of 10 of hemorrhagic jaundice.
• Genie (1970) is the pseudonym given to a feral girl born in 1957 in Los Angeles. Confined to one room without external stimulation of any kind, Genie was strapped to a child's toilet and restrained in a makeshift harness for up to 13 hours per day and immobilized in a crib overnight. It was also theorized that Genie's father would beat her with a wooden plank kept in the room if Genie vocalized at all, and that he would growl like a dog outside of her door. This abuse continued from the age of 20 months until approximately 13 years and 7 months. Attempts were made to teach Genie language, but results were limited. After the first 5 years in which Genie received treatment, her living situation was mostly unstable, often moving between foster homes and hospitals, as her mother proved unable to care for her by herself. As of 2016, Genie is a ward of the state of California.
• Sujit Kumar (1979), named the "Chicken Boy of Fiji" by the media, was born with cerebral palsy and epilepsy. Sujit's mother committed suicide when he was a toddler and his father left him confined under the house to live with the chickens. Sujit was rescued while still a boy and committed to the Samabula Old People's Home where he was confined to his room and tied to his bed. He could not speak and his only verbalisation was clucking; his only interaction with people consisted of outbursts. Sujit remained at the old people's home for 20 years until he was found by Elizabeth Clayton, a wealthy Australian businesswoman who founded the Happy Home Trust to care for Sujit and other at-risk Fijian children. Sujit's behaviour has improved, but it is assumed that he will never learn to speak, and he remains profoundly disabled.
• Danielle Crockett (2007–2008) of Plant City, Florida, United States had been locked in her room and deprived of any human interaction for the first 7 years of her life, causing a variety of severe developmental delays. She was found and adopted and as of 2017 Dani lives in a group home. She has not learned how to speak but can now let people touch her, look others in the eyes, swim, and more progress acclimating to human conditioning.
• Vanya Yudin (2008), the "Russian bird boy," is a seven-year-old boy who spent his entire life living in a tiny two bedroom apartment surrounded by birds. His mother never spoke to him and treated him as a pet, and when found he was unable to communicate except for chirping and flapping his arms like wings.
• Natasha (2009), born in Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai, is a five-year-old girl who spent her entire life locked in a room with cats and dogs, and no heat, water, or sewage system. When she was found, she could not speak, would jump at the door and bark as caretakers left, and had "clear attributes of an animal."
• Sasha T. (2012) is a two-year-old Russian boy who was kept in a room with goats his entire life by his mother. Without any human contact, he had not learned how to speak, and weighed only about two-thirds as much as a typical child his age when he was discovered by Russian social workers.

Hoaxes

Following the 2008 disclosure by Belgian newspaper Le Soir that the bestselling book Misha: A Mémoire of the Holocaust Years and movie Survivre avec les loups ("Surviving with Wolves") was a media hoax, the French media debated the credulity with which numerous cases of feral children have been unquestioningly accepted. Although there are numerous books on these children, almost none of them have been based on archives; the authors instead have used dubious second- or third-hand printed information. According to the French surgeon Serge Aroles, who wrote a general study of feral children based on archives (L'Enigme des Enfants-loups or The Enigma of Wolf-children, 2007), many alleged cases are totally fictitious stories:

• The teenager of Kronstadt (1781) – According to the Hungarian document published by Serge Aroles, this case is a hoax: the boy, mentally disabled, had a goitre and was exhibited for money.
• Syrian Gazelle Boy (1946) – A boy aged around 10 was reported to have been found in the midst of a herd of gazelles in the Syrian desert in the 1950s, and was only rescued with the help of an Iraqi army jeep, because he could run at speeds of up to 50 km/h (30 mph). However, it was supposedly a hoax, as are several other gazelle-boy cases.
• Amala and Kamala – Claimed to have been found in 1920 by missionaries near Midnapore, Calcutta region, India, later proved to be a hoax to gain charity for Rev. Singh's orphanage. Scholars from Japan and France launched a new inquiry about Amala and Kamala, and validated the discoveries and conclusions done by Serge Aroles 20 years before: the story was a hoax.
• Ramu, Lucknow, India, (1954) – A girl taken by a wolf as a baby, and raised in the jungle until the age of seven. Aroles made inquiries on the scene and classifies this as another hoax.
• The bear-girl of Krupina, Slovakia (1767) – Serge Aroles found no traces of her in the Krupina archives.

Legend, fiction, and popular culture

Main article: List of fictional feral children

Myths, legends, and fiction have depicted feral children reared by wild animals such as wolves, apes, monkeys, and bears. Famous examples include Romulus and Remus, Ibn Tufail's Hayy, Ibn al-Nafis' Kamil, Rudyard Kipling's Mowgli, Edgar Rice Burroughs's Tarzan, George of the Jungle and the legends of Atalanta and Enkidu.

The Capitoline Wolf suckling Romulus and Remus

Roman legend has it that Romulus and Remus, twin sons of Rhea Silvia and Mars, were suckled by a she-wolf. Rhea Silvia was a priestess, and when it was found that she had been pregnant and had children, King Amulius, who had usurped his brother's throne, ordered her to be buried alive and for the children to be killed. The servant who was given the order set them in a basket on the Tiber river instead, and the children were taken by Tiberinus, the river god, to the shore where a she-wolf found them and raised them until they were discovered as toddlers by a shepherd named Faustulus. He and his wife Acca Larentia, who had always wanted a child but never had one, raised the twins, who would later feature prominently in the events leading up to the founding of Rome (named after Romulus, who eventually killed Remus in a fight over whether the city should be founded on the Palatine Hill or the Aventine Hill).

Legendary and fictional children are often depicted as growing up with relatively normal human intelligence and skills and an innate sense of culture or civilization, coupled with a healthy dose of survival instincts. Their integration into human society is made to seem relatively easy. One notable exception is Mowgli, for whom living with humans proved to be extremely difficult.

The book Knowledge of Angels involves a feral girl found on a fictional island based upon Mallorca. She is the subject of an experiment to see if the knowledge of God is learned or innate. Placed in a convent, while she is there the nuns are instructed not to teach her about God or even mention him in front of her. This is to see whether an atheist who washed up there should be condemned or not.

The Earthsea series by Ursula K. Le Guin mentions a brother and sister who were abandoned on a remote island as children, and thus grew up as feral children; in A Wizard of Earthsea, Ged washes up on their island and is unable to communicate much with them, as they only know a few words in their native language (which he did not speak at the time). They were both elderly and very frightened of him, but the sister gives him one of her few possessions when he leaves. Later in The Tombs of Atuan, Ged tells Tenar about the sister and brother (named Anthil and Ensar respectively), and Tenar explains their names, lineage, and how the abandonment was known about in their (and her) home country. Tenar and Ged agree that abandonment was kinder than the murder the children would have otherwise been victims of, but Ged remarks that it was still very cruel and "They scarcely knew human speech."

The 2006 novel Magic Hour by Kristin Hannah is about a six-year-old feral child living during her formative years inside a cave in the Olympic National Forest. The girl wanders one day into the fictional small town of Rain Valley, Washington, searching for food and carrying her pet wolf pup and unable to speak. The police chief calls in her psychiatrist sister to teach the girl how to speak and to find the girl's family.

Hazard

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would allow them, even just theoretically, to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk, a term often used synonymously in colloquial speech.

Hazards can be classified in several ways; they can be classified as natural, anthropogenic, technological, or any combination, such as in the case of the natural phenomenon of wildfire becoming more common due to human-made climate change or more harmful due to changes in building practices. A common theme across many forms of hazards in the presence of stored energy that, when released, can cause damage. The stored energy can occur in many forms: chemical, mechanical, thermal hazards and by the populations that may be affected and the severity of the associated risk. In most cases, a hazard may affect a range of targets and have little or no effect on others.

Identification of hazards assumes that the potential targets are defined, and is the first step in performing a risk assessment.

Characteristics

A proposed level crossing at railroad tracks would result in "the worse death trap in Los Angeles", a California traffic engineer warned in 1915, because of the impaired view of the railway by automobile drivers. A viaduct was built instead.

Environmental hazards include long term environmental deterioration such as acidification of soils and build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide to communal and involuntary social hazards such as crime and terrorism to voluntary and personal hazards such as drug abuse and mountain climbing. Environmental hazards usually have defined or common characteristics including their tendency to be rapid onset events meaning they occur with a short warning time, they have a clear source of origin which is easily identified, the impact will be swift and losses suffered quickly during or shortly after the onset of the event, risk of exposure is usually involuntary due to location or proximity of people to the hazard and the "disaster occurs with an intensity and scale that justifies an emergency response".

Hazards may be grouped according to their characteristics. These factors are related to geophysical events, which are not process specific:

1. Areal extent of damage zone
2. Intensity of impact at a point
3. Duration of impact at a point
4. Rate of onset of the event
5. Predictability of the event

Natural hazards may be defined as "extreme events that originate in the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere or atmosphere" or "a potential threat to humans and their welfare" which include earthquake, landslide, hurricane and tsunamis. Technological and human-made hazards include explosions, the release of toxic materials, episodes of severe contamination, structural collapses, and transportation, construction and manufacturing accidents etc. A distinction can also be made between rapid-onset natural hazards, technological hazards, and social hazards, which are described as being of sudden occurrence and relatively short duration, and the consequences of longer-term environmental degradation such as desertification and drought.

In defining hazard Keith Smith argues that what may be defined as the hazard is only a hazard if there is the presence of humans to make it a hazard and that it is otherwise merely an event of interest. In this sense, the environmental conditions we may consider hostile or hazardous can be seen as neutral in that it is our perception, human location and actions which identify resources and hazards within the range of natural events. In this regard, human sensitivity to environmental hazards is a combination of both physical exposure (natural and/or technological events at a location related to their statistical variability) and human vulnerability (about social and economic tolerance of the same location).

Smith states that natural hazards are best seen in an ecological framework to distinguish between natural events as natural hazards. He says, "natural hazards, therefore, result from the conflict of geophysical processes with people and they lie at the interface what has been called the natural events system and the human interface system." He says that "this interpretation of natural hazards gives humans a central role. Firstly through location, because it is only when people and their possessions get in the way of natural processes that hazard exists."

A natural hazard can be considered as a geophysical event when it occurs in extremes and a human factor is involved that may present a risk. In this context, we can see that there may be an acceptable variation of magnitude which can vary from the estimated normal or average range with upper and lower limits or thresholds. In these extremes, the natural occurrence may become an event that presents a risk to the environment or people. Smith says "most social and economic activities are geared to some expectation of the 'average' conditions. As long as the variation of the environmental element remains fairly close to this expected performance, insignificant damage occurs and the element will be perceived as beneficial. However, when the variability exceeds some threshold beyond the normal band of tolerance, the same variable starts to impose a stress on society and become a hazard." Thus, above-average wind speeds resulting in a tropical depression or hurricane according to intensity measures on the Saffir–Simpson scale will provide an extreme natural event that may be considered a hazard.

Classification

Hazards can be classified as different types in several ways. One of these ways is by specifying the origin of the hazard. One key concept in identifying a hazard is the presence of stored energy that, when released, can cause damage. The stored energy can occur in many forms: chemical, mechanical, thermal, radioactive, electrical, etc. Another class of hazard does not involve the release of stored energy, but the presence of hazardous situations. Examples include confined or limited egress spaces, oxygen-depleted atmospheres, awkward positions, repetitive motions, low-hanging or protruding objects, etc.

Hazards may also be classified as natural, anthropogenic, or technological. They may also be classified as health or safety hazards and by the populations that may be affected and the severity of the associated risk.

In most cases, a hazard may affect a range of targets and have little or no effect on others. Identification of hazards assumes that the potential targets are defined.

Hazards to navigation are another formal classification of hazard. They are usually only hazardous in the context of obstructions to the passage of shipping in their vicinity.

Based on origin

Natural hazards

Main article: Natural hazard

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, volcanoes and tsunami have threatened people, society, the natural environment, and the built environment, particularly more vulnerable people, throughout history, and in some cases, on a day-to-day basis. According to the Red Cross, each year 130,000 people are killed, 90,000 are injured and 140 million are affected by unique events known as natural disasters.

Recent policy-oriented work into hazard management began with the work of Gilbert White, the first person to study engineering schemes as a means of mitigating flooding in the US. From 1935 to 1967 White and his colleagues led the research into flood defences, and further collaboration on the investigation was undertaken at the University of Chicago.

In December 1989, after several years of preparation, the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 44/236 proclaiming the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. The objective of that decade was stated in the annexe of Resolution 44/236 as follows:

"…to reduce through concerted international action, especially in developing countries, the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, wind-storms, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, wildfire, grasshopper and locust infestations, drought and desertification and other calamities of natural origin."

Methods to reduce risk from natural hazards include construction of high-risk facilities away from areas with high risk, engineering redundancy, emergency reserve funds, purchasing relevant insurance, and the development of operational recovery plans.

Anthropogenic hazards

Main article: Anthropogenic hazard

Hazards due to human behaviour and activity. The social, natural and built environment are not only at risk from geophysical hazards but also from technological hazards including industrial explosions, the release of chemical hazards and major accident hazards (MAHs).

Technological hazards

Further information: Disaster area § Technological hazards

Hazards due to technology, and therefore a sub-class of anthropogenic hazards.

Sociological hazards

Further information: Disaster area § Sociological hazards

Hazards due to sociological causes, also a sub-class of anthropogenic hazards. Sociological hazards include crime, terrorist threats and war.

Based on energy source

Biological hazard

Main article: biological hazard

Biological hazards, also known as biohazards, originate in biological processes of living organisms and refer to agents that pose a threat to the health of living organisms, the security of property, or the health of the environment. The term and its associated symbol may be used as a warning so that those potentially exposed to the substances will know to take precautions. The biohazard symbol was developed in 1966 by Charles Baldwin, an environmental-health engineer working for the Dow Chemical Company on the containment products. and is used in the labelling of biological materials that carry a significant health risk, such as viral samples and used hypodermic needles.

Biological hazards include viruses, parasites, bacteria, food, fungi, and foreign toxins. Many specific biological hazards have been identified. For example, the hazards of naturally occurring bacteria such as Escherichia coli and Salmonella are well known as disease-causing pathogens, and a variety of measures have been taken to limit human exposure to these microorganisms through food safety, good personal hygiene, and education. However, the potential for new biological hazards exists through the discovery of new microorganisms and the development of new genetically modified (GM) organisms. The use of new GM organisms is regulated by various governmental agencies. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) controls GM plants that produce or resist pesticides (i.e. Bt corn and Roundup ready crops). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates GM plants that will be used as food or for medicinal purposes.

Biological hazards can include medical waste or samples of a microorganism, virus or toxin (from a biological source) that can affect health. Many biological hazards are associated with food, including certain viruses, parasites, fungi, bacteria, and plant and seafood toxins. Pathogenic Campylobacter and Salmonella are common foodborne biological hazards. The hazards from these bacteria can be avoided through risk mitigation steps such as proper handling, storing, and cooking of food. Disease in humans can come from biological hazards in the form of infection by bacteria, antigens, viruses, or parasites.

Chemical hazard

Main article: Chemical hazard

See also: poison

A chemical can be considered a hazard if by its intrinsic properties it can cause harm or danger to humans, property, or the environment. Health hazards associated with chemicals are dependent on the dose or amount of the chemical. For example, iodine in the form of potassium iodate is used to produce iodised salt. When applied at a rate of 20  mg of potassium iodate per 1000  mg of table salt, the chemical is beneficial in preventing goitre, while iodine intakes of 1200–9500  mg in one dose has been known to cause death. Some chemicals have a cumulative biological effect, while others are metabolically eliminated over time. Other chemical hazards may depend on concentration or total quantity for their effects.

A variety of chemical hazards (e.g. DDT, atrazine, etc.) have been identified. However, every year companies produce more new chemicals to fill new needs or to take the place of older, less effective chemicals. Laws, such as the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act in the US, require protection of human health and the environment for any new chemical introduced. In the US, the EPA regulates new chemicals that may have environmental impacts (i.e., pesticides or chemicals released during a manufacturing process), while the FDA regulates new chemicals used in foods or as drugs. The potential hazards of these chemicals can be identified by performing a variety of tests before the authorization of usage. The number of tests required and the extent to which the chemicals are tested varies, depending on the desired usage of the chemical. Chemicals designed as new drugs must undergo more rigorous tests than those used as pesticides.

Some harmful chemicals occur naturally in certain geological formations, such as radon gas or arsenic. Other chemicals include products with commercial uses, such as agricultural and industrial chemicals, as well as products developed for home use. Pesticides, which are normally used to control unwanted insects and plants, may cause a variety of negative effects on non-target organisms. DDT can build up, or bioaccumulate, in birds, resulting in thinner-than-normal eggshells, which can break in the nest. The organochlorine pesticide dieldrin has been linked to Parkinson's disease. Corrosive chemicals like sulfuric acid, which is found in car batteries and research laboratories, can cause severe skin burns. Many other chemicals used in industrial and laboratory settings can cause respiratory, digestive, or nervous system problems if they are inhaled, ingested, or absorbed through the skin. The negative effects of other chemicals, such as alcohol and nicotine, have been well documented.

Ergonomic hazard

Main article: Ergonomic hazard

Ergonomic hazards are physical conditions that may pose a risk of injury to the musculoskeletal system, such as the muscles or ligaments of the lower back, tendons or nerves of the hands/wrists, or bones surrounding the knees. Ergonomic hazards include things such as awkward or extreme postures, whole-body or hand/arm vibration, poorly designed tools, equipment, or workstations, repetitive motion, and poor lighting. Ergonomic hazards occur in both occupational and non-occupational settings such as in workshops, building sites, offices, home, school, or public spaces and facilities.

Mechanical hazard

Main article: Mechanical hazard

Further information: Traffic accident and Road safety

A mechanical hazard is any hazard involving a machine or industrial process. Motor vehicles, aircraft, and air bags pose mechanical hazards. Compressed gases or liquids can also be considered a mechanical hazard. Hazard identification of new machines and/or industrial processes occurs at various stages in the design of the new machine or process. These hazard identification studies focus mainly on deviations from the intended use or design and the harm that may occur as a result of these deviations. These studies are regulated by various agencies such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Physical hazard

Main article: Physical hazard

A physical hazard is a naturally occurring process that has the potential to create loss or damage. Physical hazards include earthquakes, floods, fires, and tornadoes. Physical hazards often have both human and natural elements. Flood problems can be affected by the natural elements of climate fluctuations and storm frequency, and by land drainage and building in a flood plain, human elements. Another physical hazard, X-rays, naturally occur from solar radiation, but have also been utilized by humans for medical purposes; however, overexposure can lead to cancer, skin burns, and tissue damage.

Psychosocial hazard

Main article: Psychosocial hazard

Psychological or psychosocial hazards are hazards that affect the psychological well-being of people, including their ability to participate in a work environment among other people. Psychosocial hazards are related to the way work is designed, organized, and managed, as well as the economic and social contexts of work, and are associated with psychiatric, psychological, and/or physical injury or illness. Linked to psychosocial risks are issues such as occupational stress and workplace violence, which are recognized internationally as major challenges to occupational health and safety.

Based on effects

Health hazards

Hazards that would affect the health of exposed persons, usually having an acute or chronic illness as the consequence. Fatality would not normally be an immediate consequence. Health hazards may cause measurable changes in the body which are generally indicated by the development of signs and symptoms in the exposed persons, or non-measurable, subjective symptoms.

Safety hazards

Hazards that would affect the safety of individuals, usually having an injury or immediate fatality as the consequence of an incident.

Economic hazards

Hazards that would affect property, wealth and the economy.

Environmental hazards

Main article: Environmental hazard

Any single or combination of toxic chemical, biological, or physical agents in the environment, resulting from human activities or natural processes, that may affect the health of exposed subjects, including pollutants such as heavy metals, pesticides, biological contaminants, toxic waste, and industrial and home chemicals Hazards that would affect the environment, particularly the natural environment and ecosystems.

Disasters

Main article: Disaster

See also: Emergency management

Disaster can be defined as a serious disruption, occurring over a relatively short time, of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic, societal or environmental loss and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. Disaster can manifest in various forms, threatening those people or environments specifically vulnerable. Such impacts include loss of property, death, injury, trauma or post-traumatic stress disorder.

Disaster can take various forms, including hurricane, volcano, tsunami, earthquake, drought, famine, plague, disease, rail crash, car crash, tornado, deforestation, flooding, toxic release, and spills (oil, chemicals). These can affect people and the environment on the local regional level, national level or international level (Wisner et al., unknown) where the international community becomes involved with aid donation, governments give money to support affected countries' economies with disaster response and post-disaster reconstruction.

A disaster hazard is an extreme geophysical event that is capable of causing a disaster. 'Extreme' in this case means a substantial variation in either the positive or the negative direction from the normal trend; flood disasters can result from exceptionally high precipitation and river discharge, and drought is caused by exceptionally low values. The fundamental determinants of hazard and the risk of such hazards occurring is timing, location, magnitude and frequency. For example, magnitudes of earthquakes are measured on the Richter scale from 1 to 10, whereby each increment of 1 indicates a tenfold increase in severity. The magnitude-frequency rule states that over a significant period of time many small events and a few large ones will occur. Hurricanes and typhoons on the other hand occur between 5 degrees and 25 degrees north and south of the equator, tending to be seasonal phenomena that are thus largely recurrent in time and predictable in location due to the specific climate variables necessary for their formation.

Major disaster, as it is usually assessed on quantitative criteria of death and damage, was defined by Sheehan and Hewitt (1969), having to conform to the following criteria:

• At least 100 people dead,
• at least 100 people injured, or
• at least $1 million damage

This definition includes indirect losses of life caused after the initial onset of the disaster such as secondary effects of, e.g., cholera or dysentery. This definition is still commonly used but has the limitations of number of deaths, injuries, and damage (in $). UNDRO (1984) defined a disaster in a more qualitative fashion as:

an event, concentrated in time and space, in which a community undergoes severe danger and incurs such losses to its members and physical appurtenances that the social structure is disrupted and the fulfilment of all or some of the essential functions of the society is prevented.

As with other definitions of disaster, this definition not only encompasses the social aspect of disaster impact and stresses potentially caused but also focuses on losses, implying the need for emergency response as an aspect of the disaster. It does not, however, set out quantitative thresholds or scales for damage, death, or injury, respectively.

Status of a hazard

Wreck on rocks off Orchard Beach, New York, The Bronx during the winter of 2007.

 

Ukrainian "danger" road sign. Stop for dangers, including traffic accidents, natural disasters or other road obstructions

Hazards are sometimes classified into three modes or statuses:

• Dormant—The situation environment is currently affected. For instance, a hillside may be unstable, with the potential for a landslide, but there is nothing below or on the hillside that could be affected.
• Armed—People, property, or environment are in potential harm's way.
• Active—A harmful incident involving the hazard has actually occurred. Often this is referred to not as an "active hazard" but as an accident, emergency, incident, or disaster.

Risk

Main article: Risk

See also: Risk assessment

The terms "hazard" and "risk" are often used interchangeably. However, in terms of risk assessment, these are two very distinct terms. A hazard is an agent that can cause harm or damage to humans, property, or the environment. Risk is the probability that exposure to a hazard will lead to a negative consequence, or more simply, a hazard poses no risk if there is no exposure to that hazard.

Risk can be defined as the likelihood or probability of a given hazard of a given level causing a particular level of loss of damage. The elements of risk are populations, communities, the built environment, the natural environment, economic activities and services which are under threat of disaster in a given area. The total risk according to UNDRO 1982 is the "sum of predictable deaths, injuries, destruction, damage, disruption, and costs of repair and mitigation caused by a disaster of a particular level in a given area or areas".

David Alexander  distinguishes between risk and vulnerability, saying that "vulnerability refers to the potential for casualty, destruction, damage, disruption or other forms of loss in a particular element: risk combines this with the probable level of loss to be expected from a predictable magnitude of hazard (which can be considered as the manifestation of the agent that produces the loss)." Since hazards have varying degrees of severity, the more intense or severe the hazard, the greater vulnerability there will be since the potential for damage and destruction is increased for the severity of the hazard. Ben Wisner argues that risk or disaster is "a compound function of the natural hazard and the number of people, characterised by their varying degrees of vulnerability to that specific hazard, who occupy the space and time of exposure to the hazard event." (Wisner, et al., 1994).

Another definition of risk is "the probable frequency and probable magnitude of future losses". This definition also focuses on the probability of future loss whereby the degree of vulnerability to hazard represents the level of risk on a particular population or environment. The threats posed by a hazard are:

1. Hazards to people – death, injury, disease and stress
2. Hazards to goods – property damage and economic loss
3. Hazards to environment –loss of flora and fauna, pollution and loss of amenity

Marking of hazards

Main article: Hazard symbol

Hazard symbols or warning symbols are easily recognizable symbols designed to warn about hazardous materials, locations, or objects. The use of hazard symbols is often regulated by law and directed by standards organizations. Hazard symbols may appear with different colours, backgrounds, borders and supplemental information to specify the type of hazard and the level of threat (for example, toxicity classes). Warning symbols are used in many places in place of or in addition to written warnings as they are quickly recognized (faster than reading a written warning) and more universally understood, as the same symbol can be recognized as having the same meaning to speakers of different languages. Navigational hazards are generally marked on nautical charts, and are also often marked by moored buoys, and changes are published in notices to mariners.

Risk

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk 

Firefighters are exposed to risks of fire and building collapse during their work.

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas (business, economics, environment, finance, information technology, health, insurance, safety, security etc). This article provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. The international standard for risk management, ISO 31000, provides principles and general guidelines on managing risks faced by organizations.

Definitions of risk

Oxford English Dictionary

The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) cites the earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque from its French original, 'risque') as of 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. While including several other definitions, the OED 3rd edition defines risk as:

(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or welcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.

The Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary gives a simple summary, defining risk as "the possibility of something bad happening".

International Organization for Standardization

The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide 73 provides basic vocabulary to develop common understanding on risk management concepts and terms across different applications. ISO Guide 73:2009 defines risk as:

effect of uncertainty on objectives

Note 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected – positive or negative.

Note 2: Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide, project, product and process).

Note 3: Risk is often characterized by reference to potential events and consequences or a combination of these.

Note 4: Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence.

Note 5: Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood.

This definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts. It was first adopted in 2002. Its complexity reflects the difficulty of satisfying fields that use the term risk in different ways. Some restrict the term to negative impacts ("downside risks"), while others include positive impacts ("upside risks").

ISO 31000:2018 "Risk management — Guidelines" uses the same definition with a simpler set of notes.

Other

Many other definitions of risk have been influential:

"Source of harm". The earliest use of the word "risk" was as a synonym for the much older word "hazard", meaning a potential source of harm. This definition comes from Blount’s "Glossographia" (1661) and was the main definition in the OED 1st (1914) and 2nd (1989) editions. Modern equivalents refer to "unwanted events" or "something bad that might happen".

"Chance of harm". This definition comes from Johnson’s "Dictionary of the English Language" (1755), and has been widely paraphrased, including "possibility of loss" or "probability of unwanted events".

"Uncertainty about loss". This definition comes from Willett’s "Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance" (1901). This links "risk" to "uncertainty", which is a broader term than chance or probability.

"Measurable uncertainty". This definition comes from Knight’s "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" (1921). It allows "risk" to be used equally for positive and negative outcomes. In insurance, risk involves situations with unknown outcomes but known probability distributions.

"Volatility of return". Equivalence between risk and variance of return was first identified in Markovitz’s "Portfolio Selection" (1952). In finance, volatility of return is often equated to risk.

"Statistically expected loss". The expected value of loss was used to define risk by Wald (1939) in what is now known as decision theory. The probability of an event multiplied by its magnitude was proposed as a definition of risk for the planning of the Delta Works in 1953, a flood protection program in the Netherlands. It was adopted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1975), and remains widely used.

"Likelihood and severity of events". The "triplet" definition of risk as "scenarios, probabilities and consequences" was proposed by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). Many definitions refer to the likelihood/probability of events/effects/losses of different severity/consequence, e.g. ISO Guide 73 Note 4.

"Consequences and associated uncertainty". This was proposed by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). This definition is preferred in Bayesian analysis, which sees risk as the combination of events and uncertainties about them.

"Uncertain events affecting objectives". This definition was adopted by the Association for Project Management (1997). With slight rewording it became the definition in ISO Guide 73.

"Uncertainty of outcome". This definition was adopted by the UK Cabinet Office (2002) to encourage innovation to improve public services. It allowed "risk" to describe either "positive opportunity or negative threat of actions and events".

"Asset, threat and vulnerability". This definition comes from the Threat Analysis Group (2010) in the context of computer security.

"Human interaction with uncertainty". This definition comes from Cline (2015) in the context of adventure education.

Some resolve these differences by arguing that the definition of risk is subjective. For example:

No definition is advanced as the correct one, because there is no one definition that is suitable for all problems. Rather, the choice of definition is a political one, expressing someone’s views regarding the importance of different adverse effects in a particular situation.

The Society for Risk Analysis concludes that "experience has shown that to agree on one unified set of definitions is not realistic". The solution is "to allow for different perspectives on fundamental concepts and make a distinction between overall qualitative definitions and their associated measurements."

Practice areas

The understanding of risk, the common methods of management, the measurements of risk and even the definition of risk differ in different practice areas. This section provides links to more detailed articles on these areas.

Business risk

Main article: Business risks

Business risks arise from uncertainty about the profit of a commercial business due to unwanted events such as changes in tastes, changing preferences of consumers, strikes, increased competition, changes in government policy, obsolescence etc.

Business risks are controlled using techniques of risk management. In many cases they may be managed by intuitive steps to prevent or mitigate risks, by following regulations or standards of good practice, or by insurance. Enterprise risk management includes the methods and processes used by organizations to manage risks and seize opportunities related to the achievement of their objectives; see also Financial risk management § Corporate finance.

Economic risk

Economics is concerned with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. Economic risk arises from uncertainty about economic outcomes. For example, economic risk may be the chance that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates, government regulation, or political stability will affect an investment or a company’s prospects.

In economics, as in finance, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses.

Environmental risk

Environmental risk arises from environmental hazards or environmental issues.

In the environmental context, risk is defined as "The chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems".

Environmental risk assessment aims to assess the effects of stressors, often chemicals, on the local environment.

Financial risk

Main article: Financial risk

Finance is concerned with money management and acquiring funds. Financial risk arises from uncertainty about financial returns. It includes market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and operational risk.

In finance, risk is the possibility that the actual return on an investment will be different from its expected return. This includes not only "downside risk" (returns below expectations, including the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment) but also "upside risk" (returns that exceed expectations). In Knight’s definition, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. This contrasts with Knightian uncertainty, which cannot be quantified.

Financial risk modeling determines the aggregate risk in a financial portfolio. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using the variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. More recent risk measures include value at risk.

Because investors are generally risk averse, investments with greater inherent risk must promise higher expected returns.

Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk. It includes the use of a hedge to offset risks by adopting a position in an opposing market or investment.

In financial audit, audit risk refers to the potential that an audit report may fail to detect material misstatement either due to error or fraud.

Health risk

Health risks arise from disease and other biological hazards.

Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution, patterns and determinants of health and disease. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare.

In the context of public health, risk assessment is the process of characterizing the nature and likelihood of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain human activities. Health risk assessment can be mostly qualitative or can include statistical estimates of probabilities for specific populations.

A health risk assessment (also referred to as a health risk appraisal and health & well-being assessment) is a questionnaire screening tool, used to provide individuals with an evaluation of their health risks and quality of life

Health, safety, and environment risks

Health, safety, and environment (HSE) are separate practice areas; however, they are often linked. The reason is typically to do with organizational management structures; however, there are strong links among these disciplines. One of the strongest links is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. For example, the uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short-term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts, and much longer-term environmental impacts. Events such as Chernobyl, for example, caused immediate deaths, and in the longer term, deaths from cancers, and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects, impacts on wildlife, etc.

Information technology risk

Main articles: IT risk, Computer security, IT risk management, and Information security

Information technology (IT) is the use of computers to store, retrieve, transmit, and manipulate data. IT risk (or cyber risk) arises from the potential that a threat may exploit a vulnerability to breach security and cause harm. IT risk management applies risk management methods to IT to manage IT risks. Computer security is the protection of IT systems by managing IT risks.

Information security is the practice of protecting information by mitigating information risks. While IT risk is narrowly focused on computer security, information risks extend to other forms of information (paper, microfilm).

Insurance risk

Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss.

Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear a pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc.

The term "risk" has a long history in insurance and has acquired several specialised definitions, including "the subject-matter of an insurance contract", "an insured peril" as well as the more common "possibility of an event occurring which causes injury or loss".

Occupational risk

Main article: Occupational safety and health

Occupational health and safety is concerned with occupational hazards experienced in the workplace.

The Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) standard OHSAS 18001 in 1999 defined risk as the "combination of the likelihood and consequence(s) of a specified hazardous event occurring". In 2018 this was replaced by ISO 45001 "Occupational health and safety management systems", which use the ISO Guide 73 definition.

Project risk

A project is an individual or collaborative undertaking planned to achieve a specific aim. Project risk is defined as, "an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives". Project risk management aims to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project.

Safety risk

Harbor sign warning visitors that use of the walkway is "at your own risk"

Safety is concerned with a variety of hazards that may result in accidents causing harm to people, property and the environment. In the safety field, risk is typically defined as the "likelihood and severity of hazardous events". Safety risks are controlled using techniques of risk management.

A high reliability organisation (HRO) involves complex operations in environments where catastrophic accidents could occur. Examples include aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Some HROs manage risk in a highly quantified way. The technique is usually referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. The incidence rate can also be reduced due to the provision of better occupational health and safety programmes.

Security risk

Security is freedom from, or resilience against, potential harm caused by others.

A security risk is "any event that could result in the compromise of organizational assets i.e. the unauthorized use, loss, damage, disclosure or modification of organizational assets for the profit, personal interest or political interests of individuals, groups or other entities."

Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts.

Assessment and management of risk

Risk management

Main articles: Risk management and Operational risk management

Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and we all manage these risks, consciously or intuitively, whether we are managing a large organization or simply crossing the road. Intuitive risk management is addressed under the psychology of risk below.

Risk management refers to a systematic approach to managing risks, and sometimes to the profession that does this. A general definition is that risk management consists of "coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk".

ISO 31000, the international standard for risk management, describes a risk management process that consists of the following elements:

Communicating and consulting

Establishing the scope, context and criteria

Risk assessment - recognising and characterising risks, and evaluating their significance to support decision-making. This includes risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation.

Risk treatment - selecting and implementing options for addressing risk.

Monitoring and reviewing

Recording and reporting

In general, the aim of risk management is to assist organizations in "setting strategy, achieving objectives and making informed decisions". The outcomes should be "scientifically sound, cost-effective, integrated actions that [treat] risks while taking into account social, cultural, ethical, political, and legal considerations".

In contexts where risks are always harmful, risk management aims to "reduce or prevent risks". In the safety field it aims "to protect employees, the general public, the environment, and company assets, while avoiding business interruptions".

For organizations whose definition of risk includes "upside" as well as "downside" risks, risk management is "as much about identifying opportunities as avoiding or mitigating losses". It then involves "getting the right balance between innovation and change on the one hand, and avoidance of shocks and crises on the other".

Risk assessment

Main article: Risk assessment

Risk assessment is a systematic approach to recognising and characterising risks, and evaluating their significance, in order to support decisions about how to manage them. ISO 31000 defines it in terms of its components as "the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation".

Risk assessment can be qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative:

Qualitative approaches are based on qualitative descriptions of risks and rely on judgement to evaluate their significance.

Semi-quantitative approaches use numerical rating scales to group the consequences and probabilities of events into bands such as "high", "medium" and "low". They may use a risk matrix to evaluate the significance of particular combinations of probability and consequence.

Quantitative approaches, including Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), estimate probabilities and consequences in appropriate units, combine them into risk metrics, and evaluate them using numerical risk criteria.

The specific steps vary widely in different practice areas.

Risk identification

Risk identification is "the process of finding, recognizing and recording risks". It "involves the identification of risk sources, events, their causes and their potential consequences."

ISO 31000 describes it as the first step in a risk assessment process, preceding risk analysis and risk evaluation. In safety contexts, where risk sources are known as hazards, this step is known as "hazard identification".

There are many different methods for identifying risks, including:

Checklists or taxonomies based on past data or theoretical models.

Evidence-based methods, such as literature reviews and analysis of historical data.

Team-based methods that systematically consider possible deviations from normal operations, e.g. HAZOP, FMEA and SWIFT.

Empirical methods, such as testing and modelling to identify what might happen under particular circumstances.

Techniques encouraging imaginative thinking about possibilities of the future, such as scenario analysis.

Expert-elicitation methods such as brainstorming, interviews and audits.

Sometimes, risk identification methods are limited to finding and documenting risks that are to be analysed and evaluated elsewhere. However, many risk identification methods also consider whether control measures are sufficient and recommend improvements. Hence they function as stand-alone qualitative risk assessment techniques.

Risk analysis

Risk analysis is about developing an understanding of the risk. ISO defines it as "the process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk". In the ISO 31000 risk assessment process, risk analysis follows risk identification and precedes risk evaluation. However, these distinctions are not always followed.

Risk analysis may include:

Determining the sources, causes and drivers of risk

Investigating the effectiveness of existing controls

Analysing possible consequences and their likelihood

Understanding interactions and dependencies between risks

Determining measures of risk

Verifying and validating results

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Risk analysis often uses data on the probabilities and consequences of previous events. Where there have been few such events, or in the context of systems that are not yet operational and therefore have no previous experience, various analytical methods may be used to estimate the probabilities and consequences:

Proxy or analogue data from other contexts, presumed to be similar in some aspects of risk.

Theoretical models, such as Monte Carlo simulation and Quantitative risk assessment software.

Logical models, such as Bayesian networks, fault tree analysis and event tree analysis

Expert judgement, such as absolute probability judgement or the Delphi method.

Risk evaluation and risk criteria

Risk evaluation involves comparing estimated levels of risk against risk criteria to determine the significance of the risk and make decisions about risk treatment actions.

In most activities, risks can be reduced by adding further controls or other treatment options, but typically this increases cost or inconvenience. It is rarely possible to eliminate risks altogether without discontinuing the activity. Sometimes it is desirable to increase risks to secure valued benefits. Risk criteria are intended to guide decisions on these issues.

Types of criteria include:

Criteria that define the level of risk that can be accepted in pursuit of objectives, sometimes known as risk appetite, and evaluated by risk/reward analysis.

Criteria that determine whether further controls are needed, such as benefit-cost ratio.

Criteria that decide between different risk management options, such as multiple-criteria decision analysis.

The simplest framework for risk criteria is a single level which divides acceptable risks from those that need treatment. This gives attractively simple results but does not reflect the uncertainties involved both in estimating risks and in defining the criteria.

The tolerability of risk framework, developed by the UK Health and Safety Executive, divides risks into three bands:

Unacceptable risks – only permitted in exceptional circumstances.

Tolerable risks – to be kept as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP), taking into account the costs and benefits of further risk reduction.

Broadly acceptable risks – not normally requiring further reduction.

Descriptions of risk

There are many different risk metrics that can be used to describe or "measure" risk.

Triplets

Risk is often considered to be a set of triplets (also described as a vector):

${\displaystyle \text{R}=<{\text{s}}_{\text{i}}{,p}_{\text{i}}{,x}_{\text{i}}>}$ for i = 1,2,....,N

where:

${\displaystyle {\text{s}}_{\text{i}}}$ is a scenario describing a possible event

${\displaystyle {\text{p}}_{\text{i}}}$ is the probability of the scenario

${\displaystyle {\text{x}}_{\text{i}}}$ is the consequence of the scenario

${\displaystyle \text{N}}$ is the number of scenarios chosen to describe the risk

These are the answers to the three fundamental questions asked by a risk analysis:

What can happen?

How likely is it to happen?

If it does happen, what would the consequences be?

Risks expressed in this way can be shown in a table or risk register. They may be quantitative or qualitative, and can include positive as well as negative consequences.

The scenarios can be plotted in a consequence/likelihood matrix (or risk matrix). These typically divide consequences and likelihoods into 3 to 5 bands. Different scales can be used for different types of consequences (e.g. finance, safety, environment etc.), and can include positive as well as negative consequences.

An updated version recommends the following general description of risk:

${\displaystyle \text{R}=(\text{A, C, U, P, K})}$

where:

${\displaystyle \text{A}}$ is an event that might occur

${\displaystyle \text{C}}$ is the consequences of the event

${\displaystyle \text{U}}$ is an assessment of uncertainties

${\displaystyle \text{P}}$ is a knowledge-based probability of the event

${\displaystyle \text{K}}$ is the background knowledge that U and P are based on

Probability distributions

If all the consequences are expressed in the same units (or can be converted into a consistent loss function), the risk can be expressed as a probability density function describing the "uncertainty about outcome":

${\displaystyle \text{R}=\text{p(x)}}$

This can also be expressed as a cumulative distribution function (CDF) (or S curve).

One way of highlighting the tail of this distribution is by showing the probability of exceeding given losses, known as a complementary cumulative distribution function, plotted on logarithmic scales. Examples include frequency-number (FN) diagrams, showing the annual frequency of exceeding given numbers of fatalities.

A simple way of summarising the size of the distribution’s tail is the loss with a certain probability of exceedance, such as the Value at Risk.

Expected values

Risk is often measured as the expected value of the loss. This combines the probabilities and consequences into a single value. See also Expected utility. The simplest case is a binary possibility of Accident or No accident. The associated formula for calculating risk is then:

${\displaystyle \text{R}=(\text{probability of the accident occurring})\times (\text{expected loss in case of the accident})}$

For example, if there is a probability of 0.01 of suffering an accident with a loss of $1000, then total risk is a loss of $10, the product of 0.01 and $1000.

In a situation with several possible accident scenarios, total risk is the sum of the risks for each scenario, provided that the outcomes are comparable:

${\displaystyle \text{R}=\sum _{\text{i=1 to N}}{\text{p}}_{\text{i}}{\text{x}}_{\text{i}}}$ (terms defined above)

In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

A disadvantage of defining risk as the product of impact and probability is that it presumes, unrealistically, that decision-makers are risk-neutral. A risk-neutral person's utility is proportional to the expected value of the payoff. For example, a risk-neutral person would consider 20% chance of winning $1 million exactly as desirable as getting a certain $200,000. However, most decision-makers are not actually risk-neutral and would not consider these equivalent choices.^[12]

Volatility

In finance, volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using the variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. The risk is then:

${\displaystyle \text{R}=\sigma }$

The beta coefficient measures the volatility of an individual asset to overall market changes. This is the asset’s contribution to systematic risk, which cannot be eliminated by portfolio diversification. It is the covariance between the asset’s return r_i and the market return r_m, expressed as a fraction of the market variance:^[44]

${\displaystyle {\beta }_i=\frac{{\sigma }_{im}}{{\sigma }_m^2}=\frac{\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{v}(r_i,r_m)}{\mathrm{V}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{r}(r_m)}}$

Outcome frequencies

Risks of discrete events such as accidents are often measured as outcome frequencies, or expected rates of specific loss events per unit time. When small, frequencies are numerically similar to probabilities, but have dimensions of [1/time] and can sum to more than 1. Typical outcomes expressed this way include:

Individual risk - the frequency of a given level of harm to an individual. It often refers to the expected annual probability of death. Where risk criteria refer to the individual risk, the risk assessment must use this metric.

Group (or societal risk) – the relationship between the frequency and the number of people suffering harm.

Frequencies of property damage or total loss.

Frequencies of environmental damage such as oil spills.

Relative risk

In health, the relative risk is the ratio of the probability of an outcome in an exposed group to the probability of an outcome in an unexposed group.

Psychology of risk

Risk perception

Intuitive risk assessment

An understanding that future events are uncertain and a particular concern about harmful ones may arise in anyone living in a community, experiencing seasons, hunting animals or growing crops. Most adults therefore have an intuitive understanding of risk. This may not be exclusive to humans.

In ancient times, the dominant belief was in divinely determined fates, and attempts to influence the gods may be seen as early forms of risk management. Early uses of the word ‘risk’ coincided with an erosion of belief in divinely ordained fate.

Risk perception is the subjective judgement that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. At its most basic, the perception of risk is an intuitive form of risk analysis.

Heuristics and biases

Intuitive understanding of risk differs in systematic ways from accident statistics. When making judgements about uncertain events, people rely on a few heuristic principles, which convert the task of estimating probabilities to simpler judgements. These heuristics are useful but suffer from systematic biases.

The "availability heuristic" is the process of judging the probability of an event by the ease with which instances come to mind. In general, rare but dramatic causes of death are over-estimated while common unspectacular causes are under-estimated.

An "availability cascade" is a self-reinforcing cycle in which public concern about relatively minor events is amplified by media coverage until the issue becomes politically important.

Despite the difficulty of thinking statistically, people are typically over-confident in their judgements. They over-estimate their understanding of the world and under-estimate the role of chance. Even experts are over-confident in their judgements.

Psychometric paradigm

The "psychometric paradigm" assumes that risk is subjectively defined by individuals, influenced by factors that can be elicited by surveys. People’s perception of the risk from different hazards depends on three groups of factors:

• Dread – the degree to which the hazard is feared or might be fatal, catastrophic, uncontrollable, inequitable, involuntary, increasing or difficult to reduce.
• Unknown - the degree to which the hazard is unknown to those exposed, unobservable, delayed, novel or unknown to science.
• Number of people exposed.

Hazards with high perceived risk are in general seen as less acceptable and more in need of reduction.

Cultural theory of risk

Cultural Theory views risk perception as a collective phenomenon by which different cultures select some risks for attention and ignore others, with the aim of maintaining their particular way of life. Hence risk perception varies according to the preoccupations of the culture. The theory distinguishes variations known as "group" (the degree of binding to social groups) and "grid" (the degree of social regulation), leading to four world-views:

• Hierarchists (high group /high grid), who tend to approve of technology providing its risks are evaluated as acceptable by experts.
• Egalitarians (high group/low grid), who tend to object to technology because it perpetuates inequalities that harm society and the environment.
• Individualists (low group/low grid), who tend to approve of technology and see risks as opportunities.
• Fatalists (low group/high grid), who do not knowingly take risks but tend to accept risks that are imposed on them

Cultural Theory helps explain why it can be difficult for people with different world-views to agree about whether a hazard is acceptable, and why risk assessments may be more persuasive for some people (e.g. hierarchists) than others. However, there is little quantitative evidence that shows cultural biases are strongly predictive of risk perception.

Risk and emotion

The importance of emotion in risk

While risk assessment is often described as a logical, cognitive process, emotion also has a significant role in determining how people react to risks and make decisions about them. Some argue that intuitive emotional reactions are the predominant method by which humans evaluate risk. A purely statistical approach to disasters lacks emotion and thus fails to convey the true meaning of disasters and fails to motivate proper action to prevent them. This is consistent with psychometric research showing the importance of "dread" (an emotion) alongside more logical factors such as the number of people exposed.

The field of behavioural economics studies human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behaviour varies from what analysts call "rational". Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may improve naive risk assessments that presume rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases.

The affect heuristic

The "affect heuristic" proposes that judgements and decision-making about risks are guided, either consciously or unconsciously, by the positive and negative feelings associated with them. This can explain why judgements about risks are often inversely correlated with judgements about benefits. Logically, risk and benefit are distinct entities, but it seems that both are linked to an individual’s feeling about a hazard.

Fear, anxiety and risk

Worry or anxiety is an emotional state that is stimulated by anticipation of a future negative outcome, or by uncertainty about future outcomes. It is therefore an obvious accompaniment to risk, and is initiated by many hazards and linked to increases in perceived risk. It may be a natural incentive for risk reduction. However, worry sometimes triggers behaviour that is irrelevant or even increases objective measurements of risk.

Fear is a more intense emotional response to danger, which increases the perceived risk. Unlike anxiety, it appears to dampen efforts at risk minimisation, possibly because it provokes a feeling of helplessness.

Dread risk

It is common for people to dread some risks but not others: They tend to be very afraid of epidemic diseases, nuclear power plant failures, and plane accidents but are relatively unconcerned about some highly frequent and deadly events, such as traffic crashes, household accidents, and medical errors. One key distinction of dreadful risks seems to be their potential for catastrophic consequences, threatening to kill a large number of people within a short period of time. For example, immediately after the 11 September attacks, many Americans were afraid to fly and took their car instead, a decision that led to a significant increase in the number of fatal crashes in the time period following the 9/11 event compared with the same time period before the attacks.

Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain why people fear dread risks. First, the psychometric paradigm suggests that high lack of control, high catastrophic potential, and severe consequences account for the increased risk perception and anxiety associated with dread risks. Second, because people estimate the frequency of a risk by recalling instances of its occurrence from their social circle or the media, they may overvalue relatively rare but dramatic risks because of their overpresence and undervalue frequent, less dramatic risks. Third, according to the preparedness hypothesis, people are prone to fear events that have been particularly threatening to survival in human evolutionary history. Given that in most of human evolutionary history people lived in relatively small groups, rarely exceeding 100 people, a dread risk, which kills many people at once, could potentially wipe out one's whole group. Indeed, research found that people's fear peaks for risks killing around 100 people but does not increase if larger groups are killed. Fourth, fearing dread risks can be an ecologically rational strategy. Besides killing a large number of people at a single point in time, dread risks reduce the number of children and young adults who would have potentially produced offspring. Accordingly, people are more concerned about risks killing younger, and hence more fertile, groups.

Outrage

Outrage is a strong moral emotion, involving anger over an adverse event coupled with an attribution of blame towards someone perceived to have failed to do what they should have done to prevent it. Outrage is the consequence of an event, involving a strong belief that risk management has been inadequate. Looking forward, it may greatly increase the perceived risk from a hazard.

Human factors

Main articles: Decision theory and Prospect theory

One of the growing areas of focus in risk management is the field of human factors where behavioural and organizational psychology underpin our understanding of risk based decision making. This field considers questions such as "how do we make risk based decisions?", "why are we irrationally more scared of sharks and terrorists than we are of motor vehicles and medications?"

In decision theory, regret (and anticipation of regret) can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk aversion (preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off).

Framing is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality (our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcuts), the risk of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving – partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident.

For instance, an extremely disturbing event (an attack by hijacking, or moral hazards) may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies for error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.

All decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive bias, cultural bias, and notational bias: No group of people assessing risk is immune to "groupthink": acceptance of obviously wrong answers simply because it is socially painful to disagree, where there are conflicts of interest.

Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risky decision. The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing.

From the Theory of Leaky Modules McElroy and Seta proposed that they could predictably alter the framing effect by the selective manipulation of regional prefrontal activity with finger tapping or monaural listening. The result was as expected. Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored. This is a practical way of manipulating regional cortical activation to affect risky decisions, especially because directed tapping or listening is easily done.

Psychology of risk taking

A growing area of research has been to examine various psychological aspects of risk taking. Researchers typically run randomised experiments with a treatment and control group to ascertain the effect of different psychological factors that may be associated with risk taking. Thus, positive and negative feedback about past risk taking can affect future risk taking. In one experiment, people who were led to believe they are very competent at decision making saw more opportunities in a risky choice and took more risks, while those led to believe they were not very competent saw more threats and took fewer risks.

Other considerations

Risk and uncertainty

In his seminal 1921 work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight established the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

... Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term "risk," as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. ... The essential fact is that "risk" means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. ... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We ... accordingly restrict the term "uncertainty" to cases of the non-quantitive type.

Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable.

Another distinction between risk and uncertainty is proposed by Douglas Hubbard:

Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The "true" outcome/state/result/value is not known.

Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Example: "There is a 60% chance this market will double in five years."

Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome.

Measurement of risk: A set of possibilities each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses. Example: "There is a 40% chance the proposed oil well will be dry with a loss of $12 million in exploratory drilling costs."

In this sense, one may have uncertainty without risk but not risk without uncertainty. We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk. In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes.

Mild Versus Wild Risk

Benoit Mandelbrot distinguished between "mild" and "wild" risk and argued that risk assessment and analysis must be fundamentally different for the two types of risk. Mild risk follows normal or near-normal probability distributions, is subject to regression to the mean and the law of large numbers, and is therefore relatively predictable. Wild risk follows fat-tailed distributions, e.g., Pareto or power-law distributions, is subject to regression to the tail (infinite mean or variance, rendering the law of large numbers invalid or ineffective), and is therefore difficult or impossible to predict. A common error in risk assessment and analysis is to underestimate the wildness of risk, assuming risk to be mild when in fact it is wild, which must be avoided if risk assessment and analysis are to be valid and reliable, according to Mandelbrot.

Risk attitude, appetite and tolerance

Main articles: Risk aversion and Risk compensation

The terms risk attitude, appetite, and tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organisation's or individual's attitude towards risk-taking. One's attitude may be described as risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking. Risk tolerance looks at acceptable/unacceptable deviations from what is expected.^{[clarification needed]} Risk appetite looks at how much risk one is willing to accept. There can still be deviations that are within a risk appetite. For example, recent research finds that insured individuals are significantly likely to divest from risky asset holdings in response to a decline in health, controlling for variables such as income, age, and out-of-pocket medical expenses.

Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. The possibility of getting no return on an investment is also known as the rate of ruin.

Risk compensation is a theory which suggests that people typically adjust their behavior in response to the perceived level of risk, becoming more careful where they sense greater risk and less careful if they feel more protected. By way of example, it has been observed that motorists drove faster when wearing seatbelts and closer to the vehicle in front when the vehicles were fitted with anti-lock brakes.

Risk and autonomy

The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that 'risk' is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk averse. "People's autonomy used to be compromised by institution walls, now it's too often our risk management practices", according to John O'Brien. Michael Fischer and Ewan Ferlie (2013) find that contradictions between formal risk controls and the role of subjective factors in human services (such as the role of emotions and ideology) can undermine service values, so producing tensions and even intractable and 'heated' conflict.

Risk society

Main article: Risk society

Anthony Giddens and Ulrich Beck argued that whilst humans have always been subjected to a level of risk – such as natural disasters – these have usually been perceived as produced by non-human forces. Modern societies, however, are exposed to risks such as pollution, that are the result of the modernization process itself. Giddens defines these two types of risks as external risks and manufactured risks. The term Risk society was coined in the 1980s and its popularity during the 1990s was both as a consequence of its links to trends in thinking about wider modernity, and also to its links to popular discourse, in particular the growing environmental concerns during the period.