Envisioned by the AU Assembly decision to achieve a Universal Accession of AU Member States to the APRM by 2023
The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) is a mutually agreed instrument voluntarily acceded to by the member states of the African Union (AU) as a self-monitoring mechanism. It was founded in 2003.
A Specialized Agency of the African Union
(AU), the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) was initiated in 2002
and established in 2003 by the African Union in the framework of the
implementation of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).
APRM is a tool for sharing experiences, reinforcing best
practices, identifying deficiencies, and assessing capacity-building
needs to foster policies, standards and practices that lead to political
stability, high economic growth, sustainable development and accelerated sub-regional and continental economic integration.
Member countries within the APRM undertake self-monitoring in all
aspects of their governance and socio-economic development. African
Union (AU) stakeholders participate in the self-assessment of all
branches of government – executive, legislative and judicial – as well
as the private sector, civil society
and the media. The APRM Review Process gives member states a space for
national dialogue on governance and socio-economic indicators and an
opportunity to build consensus on the way forward.
The APR Forum of Heads of State and Government adopted the 2016-2020 Strategic Plan and the APRM Statute at the 25th Summit of the APR Forum held in Nairobi,
Kenya. The 28th AU Assembly of Heads of States and Government further
extended the APRM's mandate to include tracking of the implementation
and overseeing the Continent's key governance initiatives. In addition,
the AU Assembly further extended the mandate of the APRM to include
monitoring of the implementation of the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063
and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Agenda 2030.
In 2018, the 11th AU Extraordinary Summit of Head of States and
Government reached the decision to fully integrate the APRM to the
African Union in accordance to Assembly/AU/Dec.635(XXVIII) decision
adopted by 28th Ordinary Session of the Assembly Union held in Addis
Ababa. The Assembly further encouraged the universal accession of AU
member countries to the APRM, now counting 40 members with the accession
of the Republic of Seychelles and Zimbabwe at the 32nd APR Forum in
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in January 2020.
Four types of country reviews
1. Base Review – carried out immediately after a country becomes a member of the APRM
2. Periodic Review every four years
3. Targeted Review – requested by the member country itself outside the framework of mandated reviews
4. A Review commissioned by the APR Forum when there are early signs of pending political and economic crisis.
Four Thematic Areas
1. Democracy and Political Governance (DPG)
2. Economic Governance and Management (EGM)
3. Corporate Governance (CG)
4. Broad-based Sustainable Socio-economic Development (SED)
The five stages of a peer review
Consultation
The
APR Secretariat and the Country under review consult on the process
overview and terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The Country
under review creates a Focal Point to liaise with the Secretariat and
provide it with relevant laws, treaty ratifications, budgets and
development plans. The Secretariat prepares a background assessment
document. At the same time, the Country under review independently
completes the APR Self-Assessment Questionnaire, gathers inputs from
civil society and drafts a paper outlining the nation's issues and a
National Programme of Action (NPoA) with clear steps and deadlines on
how it plans to conform to APRM codes and standards, the African Union
Charter, and UN obligations. The Country Review Team that is set up
writes a report outlining issues to be focused on during the review
mission.
2.THE REVIEW MISSION
Visits the Country under review and conducts broad-based
consultations with government, officials, political parties,
parliamentarians, and representatives of civil society organisations
(e.g. media, academia, trade unions, professional bodies), and the
private sector. The mission typically lasts two-and-a-half to three
weeks.
3.DRAFT REPORT
The APR Country Review Team drafts a report on the Country under review.
4.THE PEER REVIEW
takes place at the level of the APR Forum, using the APR Panel's
report on the team's findings as a basis. The APR Forum discusses these
recommendations with the Reviewed Country's leadership.
5.FINAL REPORT
Within six months, after the peer review, the published Country
Review Report must be tabled in sub-regional institutions (Pan-African
Parliament, African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights, AU Peace
and Security Council, Economic, Social and Cultural Council of the
African Union [ECOSOCC AU]). The report is then made publicly available.
The second generation review
The
objective of the APRM Second Generation Review is to assess progress
made in Governance and Socio-economic Development in Member States in
the period since the Base Review. The specific objectives are to:
reinvigorate, rationalize and institutionalize the APRM in governance reforms within a Member States.
appraise to what extent the National Programme of Action (NPoA) is
implemented and its continued relevance, on the basis of which a new
NPOA with a few key actions will be proposed;
facilitate the development of a second NPOA with greater focus and based only on key actions; and
make the APRM Review process more relevant to citizens' needs, more
cost-effective and in tune with the Agenda 2063 priorities and goals.
What happens after the country review
The
National Programme of Action (NPoA) is divided into short-term,
medium-term and long-term goals and is continuously monitored by the
National Governance Commission/Governing Council, or a smaller body of
state and non-state representatives. Progress Reports on implementation
are presented annually to the APR Forum. The APR Secretariat follows up
on commitments made, holds regional workshops to share best practices
identified in the reviews, and offers technical support to fulfill APRM
plans.
Governing bodies of the APRM
APR FORUM
(Committee of Participating Heads of State and Government)
Highest decision-making authority.
APR PANEL
(Panel of Eminent Persons)
Oversees the review process to ensure its independence,
professionalism and credibility, and reports to the Forum. The APR Panel
is also responsible for selecting and appointing and the Review Teams.
COMMITTEE OF FOCAL POINTS
Committee of representatives of Heads of State and Government
Manages the budgetary process, resource mobilisation through
Member States, Strategic and Development Partners, and the APRM Trust
Fund and Audit.
National Governing Council (NGC)
The National Governance Commission/National Governing Council
(NGC) is the body that oversees implementation of the APRM process at
the Member State level. In addition to providing guidance in terms of
policy direction, the NGC ensures professionalism, credibility and
independence of the national APRM self-assessment and review processes.
The NGC is composed of key stakeholder groups from government, civil
society and the private sector, in line with the APRM principle of
broad-based participation.
APRM SECRETARIAT
Provides technical, coordinating and administrative support
services. It must have sufficient capacity for the analytical work that
underpins the peer review process.
Membership of the APRM
Membership of the APRM is voluntary and open to all African Union
(AU) countries. Accession begins with an expression of interest in
membership followed by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) between the country and the APR Forum.
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Chad
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mozambique
Niger
Namibia
Nigeria
Republic of Congo
Rwanda
São Tomé and Príncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Strategic Partners
The
APRM has entered into special support agreements with partner
institutions designated by the Forum as Strategic Partners. These are:
African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF), the African Development
Bank (AfDB); Mo Ibrahim Foundation; United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA); Office of the Special Advisor on Africa (OSAA); United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Regional Bureau for Africa.
Self-regulated learning (SRL) is one of the domains of self-regulation, and is aligned most closely with educational aims. Broadly speaking, it refers to learning that is guided by metacognition (thinking about one's thinking), strategic action (planning, monitoring, and evaluating personal progress against a standard), and motivation to learn.
A self-regulated learner "monitors, directs, and regulates actions
toward goals of information acquisition, expanding expertise, and
self-improvement”.
In particular, self-regulated learners are cognizant of their academic
strengths and weaknesses, and they have a repertoire of strategies they
appropriately apply to tackle the day-to-day challenges of academic
tasks. These learners hold incremental beliefs about intelligence (as
opposed to entity, or fixed views of intelligence) and attribute their
successes or failures to factors (e.g., effort expended on a task,
effective use of strategies) within their control.
Finally, self-regulated learners take on challenging tasks,
practice their learning, develop a deep understanding of subject matter,
and exert effort towards academic success. In part, these characteristics may help to explain why self-regulated learners usually exhibit a high sense of self-efficacy. In the educational psychology literature, researchers have linked these characteristics to success in and beyond school.
Self-regulated learners are successful because they control their
learning environment. They exert this control by directing and
regulating their own actions toward their learning goals.
Self-regulated learning should be used in three different phases of
learning. The first phase is during the initial learning, the second
phase is when troubleshooting a problem encountered during learning and
the third phase is when they are trying to teach others.
Phases of self-regulation
According to Winne and Hadwin, self-regulation unfolds over “four flexibly sequenced phases of recursive cognition.” These phases are task perception, goal setting and planning, enacting, and adaptation.
During the task perception phase, students
gather information about the task at hand and personalize their
perception of it. This stage involves determining motivational states,
self-efficacy, and information about the environment around them.
Next, students set goals and plan how to
accomplish the task. Several goals may be set concerning explicit
behaviors, cognitive engagement, and motivation changes. The goals that
are set depend on how the students perceive the task at hand.
The students will then enact the plan they have
developed by using study skills and other useful tactics they have in
their repertoire of learning strategies.
The last phase is an adaptation, wherein
students evaluate their performance and determine how to modify their
strategy in order to achieve higher performance in the future. They may
change their goals or their plan; they may also choose not to attempt
that particular task again. Winne and Hadwin state that all academic
tasks encompass these four phases.
Zimmerman suggested that self-regulated learning process has three stages:
Forethought, learners' preparing work before the performance on their studying;
Volitional control, which is also called "performance control",
occurs in the learning process. It involves learners' attention and
willpower;
Self-reflection happens in the final stage when learners review
their performance toward final goals. Focusing on one's learning
strategies during the process also helps towards achieving the learning
outcomes.
Baba and Nitta (2015) demonstrated that Zimmerman's cyclical
self-regulatory processes can be extended to longer periods of time and
self-reflection has a close connection to second language writing
development. From a Complex Dynamic Systems Theory perspective, Wind and Harding (2020) found that attractor states might negatively affect the cyclicality of self-regulatory processes.
Sources of self-regulated learning
According
to Iran-Nejhad and Chissom, there are three sources of self-regulated
learning: active/executive, dynamic, and interest-creating discovery
model (1992).
Active/executive self-regulation is regulated by
the person and is intentional, deliberate, conscious, voluntary, and
strategic. The individual is aware and effortful in using
self-regulation strategies. Under this source of SRL, learning happens
best in a habitual mode of functioning.
Dynamic self-regulation is also known as
unintentional learning because it is regulated by internal subsystems
other than the “central executive.” The learner is not consciously aware
they are learning because it occurs “outside the direct influence of
deliberate internal control.”
The third source of self-regulated learning is
the interest-creating discovery module, which is described as
“bifunctional” as it is developed from both the active and dynamic
models of self-regulation. In this model, learning takes place best in a
creative mode of functioning and is neither completely person-driven
nor unconscious, but a combination of both.
Social cognitive perspective
Self-regulation from the social cognitive
perspective looks at the triadic interaction between the person (e.g.,
beliefs about success), their behavior (e.g., engaging in a task), and
the environment (e.g., feedback from a teacher). Zimmerman et al. specified three important characteristics of self-regulated learning:
self-observation (monitoring one's activities); seen as the most important of these processes
self-judgment (self-evaluation of one's performance) and
self-reactions (reactions to performance outcomes).
To the extent that one accurately reflects about one's progress
towards a learning goal, and appropriately adjusts the actions to be
performed in order to maximize performance and foreseeable outcome;
effectively, at this point, one's self has become self-regulated. During
a student's school career, the primary goal of teachers is to produce
self-regulated learners by using such theories as the Information Processing Model (IPM). By storing the information into long-term memory (or a live document like a Runbook) the learner can retrieve it upon demand and apply meta-learning to tasks, and thereby become a self-regulated learner.
Information processing perspective
Winne
and Marx posited that motivational thoughts and beliefs are governed by
the basic principles of cognitive psychology, which should be conceived
in information-processing terms. Motivation plays a major role in
self-regulated learning. Motivation is needed to apply effort and
continue on when faced with difficulty. Control also plays a role in
self-regulated learning as it helps the learner to stay on track in
reaching their learning goal and avoid being distracted from things that
stand in the way of the learning goal.
Student performance perspective
Lovett,
Meyer and Thille observed comparable student performance between
instructor-led and self-regulated learning environments. In a subsequent
study, self-regulated learning was shown to enable accelerated learning
while maintaining long-term retention rates.
Cassandra B. Whyte noted the importance of internal locus of control
tendencies on successful academic performance, also compatible with
self-regulated learning. Whyte recognized and appreciated external
factors, to include the benefit of working with a good teacher, while
encouraging self-regulated hard work, skill-building, and a positive
attitude to perform better in academic situations.
To increase positive attitudes and academic performance, expert
learners should be created. Expert learners develop self-regulated
learning strategies. One of these strategies is the ability to develop
and ask questions and use these questions to expand on their own prior
knowledge. This technique allows the learners to test the true
understanding of their knowledge and make correction about content areas
that have a misunderstanding. When learners engage in questioning, it
forces them to be more actively engaged in their learning. It also
allows them to self analyze and determine their level of comprehension.
This active engagement allows the learner to organize concepts
into existing schemas. Through the use of questions, learners can
accommodate and then assimilate their new knowledge with existing
schema. This process allows the learner to solve novel problems and when
the existing schema does not work on the novel problem the learner must
reevaluate and assess their level of understanding.
Application in practice
There
are many practical applications for self-regulated learning in schools
and classrooms. Paris and Paris state there are three main areas of
direct application in classrooms: literacy instruction, cognitive
engagement, and self-assessment.
In the area of literacy instruction, educators can teach students the
skills necessary to lead them to become self-regulated learners by using
strategies such as reciprocal teaching, open-ended tasks, and
project-based learning.
Other tasks that promote self-regulated learning are authentic
assessments, autonomy-based assignments, and portfolios. These
strategies are student-centered and inquiry-based, which cause students
to gradually become more autonomous, creating an environment of
self-regulated learning. However, students do not simply need to know
the strategies, but they need to realize the importance of utilizing
them in order to experience academic success.
According to Dweck and Master, "Students' use of learning
strategies – and their continued use of them in the face of difficulty –
is based on the beliefs that these strategies are necessary for
learning, and that they are effective ways of overcoming obstacles."
Students who are not self-regulated learners may daydream, rarely
complete assignments, or forget assignments completely. Those who do
practice self-regulation ask questions, take notes, allocate their time
effectively, and use resources available to them. Pajares lists several
practices of successful students that Zimmerman and his colleagues
developed in his chapter of Motivation and Self-Regulated Learning: Theory, Research, and Applications.
These behaviors include, but are not limited to: finishing
homework assignments by deadlines, studying when there are other
interesting things to do, concentrating on school subjects, taking
useful class notes of class instruction, using the library for
information for class assignments, effectively planning schoolwork,
effectively organizing schoolwork, remembering information presented in
class and textbooks, arranging a place to study at home without
distractions, motivating oneself to do schoolwork, and participating in
class discussions.
Examples of self-regulated learning strategies in practice:
Self-Assessment: fosters planning, assess what
skills the learner has and what skills are needed. Allows students to
internalize standards of learning so they can regulate their own
learning.
Wrapper Activity: activity based on pre-existing
learning or assessment task. This can be done as a homework assignment.
Consist of self-assessment questions to complete before completing
homework and then after the completion of homework. This will allow the
learner to draw their own conclusions about the learning process.
Think Aloud: This involves the teacher describing their thought process in solving a problem.
Questioning: Following new material, student develops questions about the material.
Reciprocal Teaching: the learner teaches new material to fellow learners.
Self-regulation has recently been studied in relation to certain age and socioeconomic groups. Programs such as CSRP target different groups in order to increase effortful control in the classroom to enhance early learning.
Measurement
There are two perspectives on how to measure student self-regulation behaviour.
First, the perspective sees SRL as an aptitude. This perspective
measures the regulation behaviour based on the perception of the student
about their regulation behaviour. The instrument that is frequently
used in this perspective is a questionnaire. The second perspective sees
SRL as an event which can be measured by observing the actual behaviour
of the student. The most commonly used methods of measurement in this
perspective are the think-aloud protocol and direct observation.
Evaluation
A qualitative study reported that learners use SRL effectively when provided with enhanced guided notes (EGN) instead of standard guided notes (SGN) by the instructor.
Moreover, students tend to use shallow level processing strategies such
as rote memorization, rehearsal, and reviewing notes which are largely
related to the learning cultures that they have been exposed to.
However, other learning contexts encourage social influences such as
group work and social assistance as ways of developing SRL through
reciprocal interaction which facilitates self-reflection. Therefore, it
is a challenge for researchers to develop a suitable framework to
evaluate SRL, as learners tend to use some strategies over others with
specific focus on SRL in different contexts.
Project governance is the management framework within which
project decisions are made. Project governance is a critical element of
any project, since the accountabilities and responsibilities associated
with an organization's business as usual activities are laid down in
their organizational governance arrangements; seldom does an equivalent
framework exist to govern the development of its capital investments
(projects). For instance, the organization chart provides a good
indication of who in the organization is responsible for any particular
operational activity the organization conducts. But unless an
organization has specifically developed a project governance policy, no
such chart is likely to exist for project development activity.
Therefore, the role of project governance is to provide a
decision making framework that is logical, robust and repeatable to
govern an organization's capital investments. In this way, an
organization will have a structured approach to conducting both its
business as usual activities and its business change, or project,
activities.
Three pillars of project governance
The decision making framework is supported by three pillars:
Structure
This refers to the governance committee structure. In the first instance the Capital Expenditure Board that sanction resources
(capital, human and other) to projects. Secondly the portfolio
committee who ensures that the right project are selected. As well as
there being a Project Board or Project Steering Committee, the broader governance environment may include various stakeholder
groups and perhaps user groups. Additionally, there may be a
Programme, governing a group of related projects of which this is one,
and possibly some form of portfolio decision making group. The decision
rights of all these committees and how they relate must be laid down in
policy and procedural documentation. In this way, the project's
governance can be integrated within the wider governance arena.
The other governing bodies include the following:
Functional Management responsible for the tactical governance of project team members and their work and deliverables
Project team for operational governance of project resources and activities
Review and auditing functions as independent process governance and deliverable and information quality
Financial auditing for independent financial compliance auditing
People
The
effectiveness of the committee structure is dependent upon the people
that populate the various governance committees. Committee membership
is determined by the nature of the project - other factors come into
play when determining membership of programme and portfolio boards -
which in turn determines which organisational roles should be
represented on the committee.
Information
This
concerns the information that informs decision makers and consists of
regular reports on the project, issues and risks that have been
escalated by the Project Manager and certain key documents that describe the project, foremost of which is the business case.
Core project governance principles
Project governance frameworks should be based around a number of core principles in order to ensure their effectiveness.
Principle 1: Ensure a single point of accountability for the success of the project
The
most fundamental project accountability is accountability for the
success of the project. A project without a clear understanding of who
assumes accountability for its success has no clear leadership. With no
clear accountability for project success, there is no one person driving
the solution of the difficult issues that beset all projects at some
point in their life. It also slows the project during the crucial
project initiation phase since there is no one person to take the
important decisions necessary to place the project on a firm footing.
The concept of a single point of accountability is the first principle
of effective project governance.
However, it is not enough to nominate someone to be accountable –
the right person must be made accountable. There are two aspects to
this. The accountable person must hold sufficient authority within the
organisation to ensure they are empowered to make the decisions
necessary for the project's success. Beyond this however is the fact
that the right person from the correct area within the organisation be
held accountable. If the wrong person is selected, the project is no
better placed than if no one was accountable for its success. The
single person who will assume accountability for the success of the
project is the subject of Principle 2.
Principle 2: Project ownership independent of Asset ownership, Service ownership or other stakeholder group
Often organisations promote the allocation of the project owner
role to the service owner or asset owner with the goal of providing
more certainty that the project will meet these owner's fundamental
needs, which is also a critical project success measure. However, the
result of this approach can involve wasteful scope inclusions and failure to achieve alternative stakeholder and customer requirements:
The benefit of the doubt goes to the stakeholder allocated with the project owner responsibility, skewing the project outcome;
Project owner requirements receive less scrutiny, reducing innovation and reducing outcome efficiency;
Different skill sets surround project ownership, Asset ownership and
Service ownership placing sound project decision making and procedure
at risk;
Operational needs always prevail, placing the project at risk of being neglected during such times;
Project contingencies are at risk of being allocated to additional scope for the stakeholder allocated project ownership.
The only proven mechanism for ensuring projects meet customer and
stakeholder needs, while optimising value for money, is to allocate
project ownership to specialist party, that otherwise would not be a
stakeholder to the project. This is principle No. 2 of project
governance.
The project owner is engaged under clear terms which outline the
organisations key result areas and the organisation's view of the key
project stakeholders. Often, organisations establish a Governance of
Projects Committee, which identifies the existence of projects and
appoints project owners as early as possible in a project's life,
establishes Project Councils which form the basis of customer and
stakeholder engagement, establishes the key result areas for a project
consistent with the organisations values, and, oversees the performance
of projects. These parameters are commonly detailed in a Project
Governance Plan which remains in place for the life of the project (and
is distinct from a Project Management Plan which is more detailed and
only comes into existence during the development of the project).
Projects have many stakeholders and an effective project
governance framework must address their needs. The next principle deals
with the manner in which this should occur.
Principle 3: Ensure separation of stakeholder management and project decision making activities
The
decision making effectiveness of a committee can be thought of as being
inversely proportional to its size. Not only can large committees fail
to make timely decisions, those it does make are often ill-considered
because of the particular group dynamics at play.
As project decision making forums grow in size, they tend to morph into stakeholder management
groups. When numbers increase, the detailed understanding of each
attendee of the critical project issues reduces. Many of those present
attend not to make decisions but as a way of finding out what is
happening on the project. Not only is there insufficient time for each
person to make their point, but those with the most valid input must
compete for time and influence with those with only a peripheral
involvement in the project. Further not all present will have the same
level of understanding of the issues and so time is wasted bringing
everyone up to speed on the particular issues being discussed. Hence,
to all intents and purposes, large project committees are constituted
more as a stakeholder management forum than a project decision making
forum. This is a major issue when the project is depending upon the
committee to make timely decisions.
There is no question that both activities, project decision
making and stakeholder management, are essential to the success of the
project. The issue is that they are two separate activities and need to
be treated as such. This is the third principle of effective project
governance. If this separation can be achieved, it will avoid clogging
the decision making forum with numerous stakeholders by constraining its
membership to only those select stakeholders absolutely central to its
success.
There is always the concern that this solution will lead to a
further problem if disgruntled stakeholders do not consider their needs
are being met. Whatever stakeholder management mechanism that is put in
place must adequately address the needs of all project stakeholders. It
will need to capture their input and views and address their concerns
to their satisfaction. This can be achieved in part by chairing of any
key stakeholder groups by the chair of the Project Board. This ensures
that stakeholders have the project owner (or SRO) to champion their
issues and concerns within the Project Board.
Principle 4: Ensure separation of project governance and organisational governance structures
Project
governance structures are established precisely because it is
recognised that organisation structures do not provide the necessary
framework to deliver a project. Projects require flexibility and speed
of decision making and the hierarchical mechanisms associated with
organisation charts do not enable this. Project governance structures
overcome this by drawing the key decision makers out of the organisation
structure and placing them in a forum thereby avoiding the serial
decision-making process associated with hierarchies.
Consequently, the project governance framework established for a
project should remain separate from the organisation structure. It is
recognised that the organisation has valid requirements in terms of
reporting and stakeholder involvement. However dedicated reporting
mechanisms established by the project can address the former and the
project governance framework must itself address the latter. What
should be avoided is the situation where the decisions of the steering
committee or project board are required to be ratified by one or more
persons in the organisation outside of that project decision making
forum; either include these individuals as members of the project
decision-making body or fully empower the current steering
committee/project board. The steering committee/project board is
responsible for approving, reviewing progress, and delivering the
project outcomes, and its intended benefits, therefore, they must have
capacity to make decisions, which may commit resources and funding
outside the original plan. This is the final principle of effective
project governance.
Adoption of this principle will minimise multi layered decision
making and the time delays and inefficiencies associated with it. It
will ensure a project decision-making body empowered to make decisions
in a timely manner.
Additional and complementary principles of governance
The
board has overall responsibility for governance of project management.
The roles, responsibilities and performance criteria for the governance
of project management are clearly defined. Disciplined governance
arrangements, supported by appropriate methods and controls are applied
throughout the project life cycle. A coherent and supportive
relationship is demonstrated between the overall business strategy and
the project portfolio.
All projects have an approved plan containing authorisation
points, at which the business case is reviewed and approved. Decisions
made at authorisation points are recorded and communicated. Members of
delegated authorisation bodies have sufficient representation,
competence, authority and resources to enable them to make appropriate
decisions. The project business case is supported by relevant and
realistic information that provides a reliable basis for making
authorisation decisions. The board or its delegated agents decide when
independent scrutiny of projects and project management systems is
required, and implement such scrutiny accordingly.
There are clearly defined criteria for reporting project status
and for the escalation of risks and issues to the levels required by the
organisation. The organisation fosters a culture of improvement and of
frank internal disclosure of project information. Project stakeholders
are engaged at a level that is commensurate with their importance to the
organisation and in a manner that fosters trust.
Principles for multi-owned projects
Multi-owned is defined as being a project where the board shares ultimate control with other parties. The principles are:
There should be formally agreed governance arrangements
There should be a single point of decision making for the project
There should be a clear and unambiguous allocation of authority for
representing the project in contacts with owners, stakeholders and third
parties
The project business case should include agreed, and current,
definitions of project objectives, the role of each owner, their
incentives, inputs, authority and responsibility
Each owner should assure itself that the legal competence and
obligations and internal governance arrangements of co-owners, are
compatible with its acceptable standards of governance for the project
There should be project authorisation points and limiting
constraints to give owners the necessary degree of control over the
project
There should be agreed recognition and allocation or sharing of
rewards and risks taking into account ability to influence the outcome
and creating incentives to foster co-operative behaviour
Project leadership should exploit synergies arising from
multi-ownership and should actively manage potential sources of conflict
or inefficiency
There should be a formal agreement that defines the process to be
invoked and the consequences for assets and owners when a material
change of ownership is considered
Reporting during both the project and the realisation of benefits
should provide honest, timely, realistic and relevant data on progress,
achievements, forecasts and risks to the extent required for good
*governance by owners
There should be a mechanism in place to invoke independent review or
scrutiny when it is in the legitimate interests of one or more of the
project owners.
There should be a dispute resolution process agreed between owners that does not endanger the achievement of project objectives.
Roles
A key role in project governance is that of the project sponsor.
The project sponsor has three main areas of responsibility which are to
the board, the project manager and the project stakeholders.
The board
For
the board, the sponsor provides leadership on culture and values, owns
the business case, keeps the project aligned with the organisation's
strategy and portfolio direction, governs project risk, works with other
sponsors, focuses on realisation of benefits, recommends opportunities
to optimise cost/benefits, ensures continuity of sponsorship, provides
assurance and provides feedback and lessons learnt.
The project manager
For
the project manager, the sponsor provides timely decisions, clarifies
decision making framework, clarifies business priorities and strategy,
communicates business issues, provides resources, engenders trust,
manages relationships, and promotes ethical working.
Project stakeholders
For
other project stakeholders, the project sponsor engages stakeholders,
governs stakeholder communications, directs client relationship, directs
governance of users, directs governance of suppliers and arbitrates
between stakeholders.
North
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to the Power Dissipation
Index, 1949–2015. Sea surface temperature has been plotted alongside the
PDI to show how they compare. The lines have been smoothed using a
five-year weighted average, plotted at the middle year.
Climate change can affect tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of rainfall and wind speed, a decrease in overall frequency, an increase in the frequency of very intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are among the possible consequences of human-induced climate change. Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their source of energy or "fuel". As climate change is warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available.
Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The trend was most clear in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Indian Ocean. In the North Pacific, tropical cyclones have been moving poleward into colder waters and there was no increase in intensity over this period. With 2 °C (3.6 °F) warming, a greater percentage (+13%) of tropical cyclones are expected to reach Category 4 and 5 strength. A 2019 study indicates that climate change has been driving the observed trend of rapid intensification
of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Rapidly intensifying
cyclones are hard to forecast and therefore pose additional risk to
coastal communities.
Warmer air can hold more water vapor: the theoretical maximum water vapor content is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, which yields ≈7% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere per 1 °C (1.8 °F) warming. All models that were assessed in a 2019 review paper show a future increase of rainfall rates. Additional sea level rise will increase storm surge levels. It is plausible that extreme wind waves
see an increase as a consequence of changes in tropical cyclones,
further exacerbating storm surge dangers to coastal communities. The compounding effects from floods, storm surge, and terrestrial flooding (rivers) are projected to increase due to global warming.
There is currently no consensus on how climate change will affect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones. A majority of climate models show a decreased frequency in future projections.
For instance, a 2020 paper comparing nine high-resolution climate
models found robust decreases in frequency in the Southern Indian Ocean
and the Southern Hemisphere more generally, while finding mixed signals for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. Observations have shown little change in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones worldwide,
with increased frequency in the North Atlantic and central Pacific, and
significant decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North
Pacific.
There has been a poleward expansion of the latitude at which the
maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs, which may be associated
with climate change. In the North Pacific, there may also have been an eastward expansion.
Between 1949 and 2016, there was a slowdown in tropical cyclone
translation speeds. It is unclear still to what extent this can be
attributed to climate change: climate models do not all show this
feature.
Background
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized
by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation,
strong winds and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce
heavy rain or squalls. The majority of these systems form each year in
one of seven tropical cyclone basins, which are monitored by a variety
of meteorological services and warning centres.
Tropical cyclones are known as hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and the northeastern Pacific Ocean, typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and cyclones in the southern Pacific or the Indian Ocean. Fundamentally, they are all the same type of storm.
Global ocean heat content in the top 700 m of the ocean.North
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to the Accumulated Cyclone
Energy Index, 1950–2020. For a global ACE graph visit this link.
Measurement
Based on satellite imagery, the Dvorak technique is the primary technique used to estimate globally the tropical cyclone intensity.
The Potential Intensity (PI) of tropical cyclones can be computed
from observed data, primarily derived from vertical profiles of
temperature, humidity and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The convective available potential energy (CAPE), was computed from radiosonde
stations in parts of the tropics from 1958 to 1997, but is considered
to be of poor quality. The Power Dissipation Index (PDI) represents the
total power dissipation for the North Atlantic and western North
Pacific, and is strongly correlated with tropical SSTs. Various tropical cyclone scales exist to classify a system.
Historical record
Since
the satellite era, which began around 1970, trends are considered to be
robust enough in regards to the connection of storms and sea surface
temperatures. Agreement exists that there were active storm periods in
the more distant past, but the sea surface temperature related Power
Dissipation Index was not as high. Paleotempestology
is the science of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological
proxies (flood sediment), or historical documentary records, such as
shipwrecks or tree ring anomalies. As of 2019, paleoclimate studies are
not yet sufficiently consistent to draw conclusions for wider regions,
but they do provide some useful information about specific locations.
Modelling tropical cyclones
Climate models
are used to study expected future changes in cyclonic activity.
Lower-resolution climate models cannot represent convection directly,
and instead use parametrizations
to approximate the smaller scale processes. This poses difficulties for
tropical cyclones, as convection is an essential part of tropical
cyclone physics.
Higher-resolution global models and regional climate models may
be more computer-intensive to run, making it difficult to simulate
enough tropical cyclones for robust statistical analysis. However, with
growing advancements in technology, climate models have improved
simulation abilities for tropical cyclone frequency and intensity.
One challenge that scientists face when modeling is determining
whether the recent changes in tropical cyclones are associated with
anthropogenic forcing, or if these changes are still within their
natural variability.
This is most apparent when examining tropical cyclones at longer
temporal resolutions. One study found a decreasing trend in tropical
storms along the eastern Australian coast over a century-long historical
record.
Changes in tropical cyclones
1970 Bhola cyclone before landfall. It became the deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded with more than 300,000 casualties.
Climate change may affect tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an
intensification of rainfall and wind speed, a decrease in overall
frequency, an increase in frequency of very intense storms and a
poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are
among the possible consequences of human-induced climate change.
Rainfall
Warmer air can hold more water vapor: the theoretical maximum water vapor content is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, which yields ≈7% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere per 1 °C warming.
All models that were assessed in a 2019 review paper show a future
increase of rainfall rates, which is the rain that falls per hour. The World Meteorological Organization stated in 2017 that the quantity of rainfall from Hurricane Harvey had very likely been increased by climate change.
A tropical cyclone's rainfall area (in contrast to rate) is primarily controlled by its environmental sea surface temperature
(SST) – relative to the tropical mean SST, called the relative sea
surface temperature. Rainfall will expand outwards as the relative SST
increases, associated with an expansion of a storm wind field. The
largest tropical cyclones are observed in the western North Pacific tropics, where the largest values of relative SST and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are located. Assuming that ocean temperatures rise uniformly, a warming climate is not likely to impact rainfall area.
Intensity
The
20-year average of the number of annual Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in
the Atlantic region has approximately doubled since the year 2000.
Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their source of energy or "fuel". As climate change is warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available.
A study published in 2012 suggests that SSTs may be valuable as a proxy
to measure potential intensity (PI) of tropical cyclones, as cyclones
are sensitive to ocean basin temperatures. Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale, which are cyclones with wind speeds over 178 km per hour. The trend was most clear in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Indian Ocean.
In the North Pacific, tropical cyclones have been moving poleward into
colder waters and there was no increase in intensity over this period. With 2 °C warming, a greater percentage (+13%) of tropical cyclones are expected to reach Category 4 and 5 strength.
A study of 2020's storms of at least tropical storm-strength concluded
that human-induced climate change increased extreme 3-hourly storm
rainfall rates by 10%, and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by
5%, and for hurricane-strength storms the figures increased to 11% and
8%.limate change has likely been driving the observed trend of rapid intensification
of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, with the proportion of
storms undergoing intensification nearly doubling over the years 1982 to
2009. Rapidly intensifying cyclones are hard to forecast and pose additional risk to coastal communities. Storms have also begun to decay more slowly once they make landfall, threatening areas further inland than in the past. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was exceptionally active and broke numerous records for frequency and intensity of storms.
There is no consensus on how climate change will affect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones. A majority of climate models show a decreased frequency in future projections.
For instance, a 2020 paper comparing nine high-resolution climate
models found robust decreases in frequency in the Southern Indian Ocean
and the Southern Hemisphere more generally, while finding mixed signals
for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. Observations have shown little change in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones worldwide.
A study published in 2015 concluded that there would be more
tropical cyclones in a cooler climate, and that tropical cyclone genesis
is possible with sea surface temperatures below 26 °C.
With warmer sea surface temperatures, especially in the Southern
Hemisphere, in tandem with increased levels of carbon dioxide, it is
likely tropical cyclone frequency will be reduced in the future.
Research conducted by Murakami et al. following the 2015
hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean where a record
number of tropical cyclones and three simultaneous category 4 hurricanes
occurred, concludes that greenhouse gas forcing enhances subtropical
Pacific warming which they project will increase the frequency of
extremely active tropical cyclones in this area.
Storm tracks
There
has been a poleward expansion of the latitude at which the maximum
intensity of tropical cyclones occurs, which may be associated with
climate change. In the North Pacific, there may also be an eastward expansion.
Between 1949 and 2016, there was a slowdown in tropical cyclone
translation speeds. It is unclear still to what extent this can be
attributed to climate change: climate models do not all show this
feature.
Storm surges and flood hazards
Additional sea level rise will increase storm surge levels. It is plausible that extreme wind waves
see an increase as a consequence of changes in tropical cyclones,
further exacerbating storm surge dangers to coastal communities. Between 1923 and 2008, storm surge incidents along the US Atlantic coast showed a positive trend.
A 2017 study looked at compounding effects from floods, storm surge,
and terrestrial flooding (rivers), and projects an increase due to climate change.
However, scientists are still uncertain whether recent increases of
storm surges are a response to anthropogenic climate change.
Studies conducted in 2008 and 2016 looked at the duration of the
Atlantic hurricane season, and found it may be getting longer,
particular south of 30°N and east of 75°W, or the tendency toward more
early- and late-season storms, correlated to warming sea surface
temperatures. However, uncertainty is still high, and one study found no
trend, another mixed results.
A 2011 study linked increased activity of intense hurricanes in
the North Atlantic with a northward shift and amplification of
convective activities from the African easterly waves (AEWs).
In addition to cyclone intensity, both size and translation speed have
been shown to be substantial contributors to the impacts resulting from
hurricane passage. A 2014 study investigated the response of AEWs to
high emissions scenarios, and found increases in regional temperature
gradients, convergence and uplift along the Intertropical Front of
Africa, resulting in strengthening of the African easterly waves,
affecting the climate over West Africa and the larger Atlantic basin.
A 2017 study concluded that the 2015 highly active hurricane season could not be attributed solely to a strong El Niño event. Instead, subtropical warming was an important factor as well, a feature more common as a consequence of climate change.
A 2019 study found that increasing evaporation and the larger
capability of the atmosphere to hold water vapor linked to climate
change, already increased the amount of rainfall from hurricanes
Katrina, Irma and Maria by 4 to 9 percent. Future increases of up to 30%
were projected.
A 2018 study found no significant trends in landfalling hurricane
frequency nor intensity for the continental United States since 1900.
Furthermore, growth in coastal populations and regional wealth served as
the overwhelming drivers of observed increases in hurricane-related
damage.
Research based on records from Japan and Hawaii indicate that typhoons
in the north-west Pacific intensified by 12–15% on average since 1977.
The observed strongest typhoons doubled, or tripled in some regions, the
intensity of particular landfalling systems is most pronounced. This
uptick in storm intensity affects coastal populations in China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines,
and has been attributed to warming ocean waters. The authors noted that
it is not yet clear to what extent global warming caused the increased
water temperatures, but observations are consistent with what the IPCC
projects for warming of sea surface temperatures. Vertical wind shear has seen decreasing trends in and around China, creating more favourable conditions for intense tropical cyclones. This is mainly in response to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon, a consequence of global warming.
Risk management and adaptation
There
are several risks associated with the increase of tropical storms, such
as it can directly or indirectly cause injuries or death. The most effective strategy to manage risks has been the development of early warning systems. A further policy that would mitigate risks of flooding is reforestation of inland areas in order to strengthen the soil of the communities and reduce coastal inundation.
It is also recommended that local schools, churches, and other
community infrastructure be permanently equipped to become cyclone
shelters.
Focusing on applying resources towards immediate relief to those
affected may divert attention from more long-term solutions. This is
further exacerbated in lower-income communities and countries as they
suffer most from the consequences of tropical cyclones.
Pacific region
Specific
national and supranational decisions have already been made and are
being implemented. The Framework for Resilient Development in the
Pacific (FRDP) has been instituted to strengthen and better coordinate
disaster response and climate change adaptation among nations and communities in the region. Specific nations such as Tonga and the Cook Islands in the Southern Pacific
under this regime have developed a Joint National Action Plan on
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (JNAP) to coordinate and
execute responses to the rising risk for climate change.These countries have identified the most vulnerable areas of their
nations, generated national and supranational policies to be
implemented, and provided specific goals and timelines to achieve these
goals. These actions to be implemented include reforestation, building of levees and dams, creation of early warning systems, reinforcing existing communication infrastructure, finding new sources of fresh water, promoting and subsidizing the proliferation renewable energy, improving irrigation techniques to promote sustainable agriculture, increase public education efforts on sustainable measures, and lobbying internationally for the increased use of renewable energy sources.
United States
The
number of $1 billion Atlantic hurricanes almost doubled from the 1980s
to the 2010s, and inflation-adjusted costs have increased more than
elevenfold. The increases have been attributed to climate change and to greater numbers of people moving to coastal areas.
In the United States,
there have been several initiatives taken to better prepare for the
strengthening of hurricanes, such as preparing local emergency shelters,
building sand dunes and levees, and reforestation initiatives. Despite better modeling capabilities of hurricanes, property damage has increased dramatically. The National Flood Insurance Program
incentivizes people to re-build houses in flood-prone areas, and
thereby hampers adaptation to increased risk from hurricanes and sea
level rise.
Due to the wind shear and storm surge, a building with a weak building
envelope is subject to more damages. Risk assessment using climate
models help determine the structural integrity of residential buildings
in hurricane-prone areas.
Some ecosystems, such as marshes, mangroves, and coral reefs, can serve as a natural obstacle to coastal erosion, storm surges, and wind damage caused by hurricanes. These natural habitats are seen to be more cost-effective as they serve as a carbon sink and support biodiversity of a region.Although there is substantial evidence of natural habitats being the
more beneficial barrier for tropical cyclones, built defenses are often
the primary solution for government agencies and decision makers. A study published in 2015, which assessed the feasibility of natural,
engineered, and hybrid risk-mitigation to tropical cyclones in Freeport,
Texas, found that incorporating natural ecosystems into risk-mitigation
plans could reduce flood heights and ease the cost of built defenses in
the future.
Media and public perception
The destruction from early 21st century Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, such as Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, and Sandy, caused a substantial upsurge in interest in the subject of climate change and hurricanes by news media and the wider public, and concerns that global climatic change may have played a significant role
in those events. In 2005 and 2017, related polling of populations
affected by hurricanes concluded in 2005 that 39 percent of Americans
believed climate change helped to fuel the intensity of hurricanes,
rising to 55 percent in September 2017.
After Typhoon Meranti
in 2016, risk perception in China was not measured to increase.
However, there was a clear rise in support for personal and community
action against climate change.
In Taiwan, people that had lived through a typhoon did not express more
anxiety about climate change. The survey did find a positive
correlation between anxiety about typhoons and anxiety about climate
change.
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Chad
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mozambique
Niger
Namibia
Nigeria
Republic of Congo
Rwanda
São Tomé and Príncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
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