Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines; that is, the number of births plus in-migrants equals the number of deaths plus out-migrants. ZPG has been a prominent political movement since the 1960s.
As part of the concept of optimum population, the movement
considers zero population growth to be an objective towards which
countries and the whole world should strive in the interests of
accomplishing long-term optimal standards and conditions of living.
Definition
The growth rate of a population in a given year equals the number of births minus the number of deaths plus immigration minus emigration expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the given year.
For example, suppose a country begins a year with one million
people and during the year experiences one hundred thousand births,
eighty thousand deaths, one thousand immigrants and two hundred
emigrants.
Change in population = 100,000 – 80,000 +1,000 – 200 = 20,800
Population growth rate = (20,800 ÷ 1,000,000) x 100% = 2.1%
Zero population growth for a country occurs when the sum of these
four numbers – births minus deaths plus immigration minus emigration -
is zero.
To illustrate, suppose a country begins the year with one million
people and during the year experiences 85,000 births, 86,000 deaths,
1,500 immigrants and 500 emigrants.
Change in population = 85,000 – 86,000 + 1,500 – 500 = 0
Population growth rate = (0 ÷ 1,000,000) x 100% = 0%
For the planet Earth as a whole, zero population growth occurs when the number of births equals the number of deaths.
In the late 1960s, ZPG became a prominent political movement in the U.S. and parts of Europe, with strong links to environmentalism and feminism. Yale University
was a stronghold of the ZPG activists who believed "that a constantly
increasing population is responsible for many of our problems:
pollution, violence, loss of values and of individual privacy." Prominent advocates of the movement were Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, Richard Bowers, a Connecticut lawyer, and Professor Charles Lee Remington.
Mechanisms
In the long term, zero population growth can be achieved when the birth rate of a population equals the death rate. That is, the total fertility rate is at replacement level
and birth and death rates are stable, a condition also called
demographic equilibrium. Unstable rates can lead to drastic changes in
population levels. This analysis is valid for the planet as a whole, but
not necessarily for a region or country as it ignores migration.
Population momentum. Even when the total fertility rate of
a population reaches replacement level, that population usually
continues to grow because of population momentum.
A population that has been growing in the past will have a higher
proportion of young people. As it is younger people who have children,
there is a time lag between the point at which the fertility rate (mean
total number of children each woman has) falls to the replacement level
and the point at which the population stops growing.
The reason for this is that even though the fertility rate has dropped
to replacement level, people already continue to live for some time
within a population. Therefore, equilibrium, with a static population,
will not be reached until the first "replacement level" birth cohorts
reach old age and die.
Aging populations. Conversely, with fertility below
replacement, the fraction of elderly grows; but since that generation
failed to replace itself during its fertile
years, a subsequent "population bust", or decrease in population, will
occur when the older generation dies off. This effect has been termed birth dearth.
In addition, if a country's fertility is at replacement level, and has
been that way for at least several decades (to stabilize its age
distribution), then that country's population could still experience
growth due to increasing life expectancy, even though the population growth is likely to be smaller than it would be from natural population increase.
Reaching zero population growth
Zero population growth is often a goal of demographic planners and environmentalists who believe that reducing population growth is essential for the health of the ecosystem.
Achieving ZPG in the short run is difficult because a country's
population growth is often determined by economic factors, incidence of
poverty, natural disasters, disease, etc.
By the voluntary action of all of humanity prior to the human
population exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth. If any group or
even if a single-family failed to control its population the entire
program would fail.
By coercive population control prior to the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth.
A loosely defined goal of ZPG is to match the replacement fertility rate,
which is the average number of children per woman which would hold the
population constant. This replacement fertility will depend on mortality rates and the sex ratio at birth, and varies from around 2.1 in developed countries to over 3.0 in some developing countries.
China and India
China and India are the largest countries by population in the world, each having some 1.4 billion people (as of 2023).
China reached a population plateau (zero growth) in 2022.
China's population growth has slowed since the beginning of this
century. This has been mostly the result of China's economic growth and
increasing living standards. However, many demographers also credit
China's family planning policy,
formulated in the early 1970s, that encouraged late marriages, late
childbearing, and the use of contraceptives, and after 1980 limited most
urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children.
According to government projections, the long-term effect of
these policies will be a reduction of the working-age population to 700
million by 2050 vs 925 million in 2011, a decline of 24%.
In November 2013, a relaxation of the one-child policy was announced
amid unpopularity and the forecast of a reduced labor pool and support
for an aging population.
India reached replacement level in 2021. However, the Indian population will keep growing for decades, given its relatively young population (see Mechanisms above).
An ecovillage is a traditional or intentional community that aims to become more socially, culturally, economically and/or environmentally sustainable.
An ecovillage strives to have the least possible negative impact on the
natural environment through the intentional physical design and
behavioural choices of its inhabitants.It is consciously designed through locally owned, participatory
processes to regenerate and restore its social and natural environments.
Most range from a population of 50 to 250 individuals, although some
are smaller, and traditional ecovillages are often much larger. Larger
ecovillages often exist as networks of smaller sub-communities. Some
ecovillages have grown through like-minded individuals, families, or
other small groups—who are not members, at least at the outset—settling
on the ecovillage's periphery and participating de facto in the community. There are currently more than 10,000 ecovillages around the world.
Ecovillagers are united by shared ecological, social-economic and cultural-spiritual values.
Concretely, ecovillagers seek alternatives to ecologically destructive
electrical, water, transportation, and waste-treatment systems, as well
as the larger social systems that mirror and support them. Many see the
breakdown of traditional forms of community, wasteful consumerist lifestyles, the destruction of natural habitat, urban sprawl, factory farming, and over-reliance on fossil fuels as trends that must be changed to avert ecological disaster and create richer and more fulfilling ways of life.
The concept of the ecovillage has undergone significant
development over time, as evidenced by the remarkable growth and
evolution of these communities over the past few decades. The various
facets of the ecovillage include case studies of community models,
discussions on sustainability alignment for diverse needs, examinations
of their environmental impact, explorations of governance structures,
and considerations of the challenges faced on their path towards a
successful ecovillage.
Definition
Multiple sources define ecovillages as a subtype of intentional communities focusing on sustainability. More pronounced definitions are listed here:
"human-scale
full-featured settlement in which human activities are harmlessly
integrated into the natural world in a way that is supportive of healthy
human development, and can be successfully continued into the
indefinite future."
Diana Michelle Fischetti
2008
"intentional community whose members strive to live in a socially
and environmentally sustainable manner, to practice voluntary
simplicity, and to cultivate meaning, life satisfaction, and
fulfillment."
Kosha Anja Joubert, Executive Director of the GEN
2016
"intentional or traditional communities, consciously designed
through participatory process to regenerate their social and natural
environments. The social, ecological, economic, and cultural
aspects are integrated into a holistic sustainable development
model that is adapted to local contexts. Ecovillages are rural
or urban settlements with vibrant social structures, vastly diverse,
yet united in their actions towards low impact, high quality
lifestyles."
GEN
2018
"intentional, traditional or urban community that is
consciously designed through locally owned, participatory processes in
all 5 dimensions of sustainability (social, culture, ecology, economy
and whole systems design) to regenerate their social and natural
environments"
GEN
2024
"An ecovillage is an intentional, traditional or urban community
that is consciously designed through locally owned, participatory
processes in all four dimensions of sustainability (social, culture, ecology and economy) to regenerate their social and natural environments."
In Joubert's view, ecovillages are seen as an ongoing process, rather
than a particular outcome. They often start off with a focus on one of
the four dimensions of sustainability, e.g. ecology, but evolve into
holistic models for restoration. In this view, aiming for sustainability
is not enough; it is vital to restore and regenerate the fabric of life
and across all four dimensions of sustainability: social,
environmental, economic and cultural.
Ecovillages have developed in recent years as technology has
improved, so they have more sophisticated structures as noted by
Baydoun, M. 2013.
Generally, the ecovillage concept is not tied to specific
sectarian (religious, political, corporate) organizations or belief
systems not directly related to environmentalism, such as monasteries,
cults, or communes.
History
The
modern-day desire for community was notably characterized by the
communal "back to the land" movement of the 1960s and 1970s through
communities such as the earliest example that still survives, the Miccosukee Land Co-op
co-founded in May 1973 by James Clement van Pelt in Tallahassee,
Florida. In the same decades, the imperative for alternatives to
radically inefficient energy-use patterns, in particular
automobile-enabled suburban sprawl,
was brought into focus by recurrent energy crises. The term
"eco-village" was introduced by Georgia Tech Professor George Ramsey in a
1978 address, "Passive Energy Applications for the Built Environment",
to the First World Energy Conference of the Association of Energy
Engineers,
to describe small-scale, car-free, close-in developments, including
suburban infill, arguing that "the great energy waste in the United
States is not in its technology; it is in its lifestyle and concept of
living."
Ramsey's article includes a sketch for a "self-sufficient pedestrian
solar village" by one of his students that looks very similar to
eco-villages today.
The movement became more focused and organized in the cohousing and related alternative-community movements of the mid-1980s. Then, in 1991, Robert Gilman and Diane Gilman
co-authored a germinal study called "Ecovillages and Sustainable
Communities" for Gaia Trust, in which the ecological and communitarian
themes were brought together.
The first Eco-Village in North America began its first stages in
1990. Earthaven Eco-Village in Black Mountain, NC was the first
community called an Eco-Village and was designed using permaculture
(holistic) principles. The first residents moved onto the vacant land in
1993. As of 2019 Earthaven Eco-Village has over 70 families living off
the grid on 368 acres of land.
The ecovillage movement began to coalesce at the annual autumn conference of Findhorn,
in Scotland, in 1995. The conference was called: "Ecovillages and
Sustainable Communities", and conference organizers turned away hundreds
of applicants. According to Ross Jackson,
"somehow they had struck a chord that resonated far and wide. The word
'ecovillage'... thus became part of the language of the Cultural Creatives."
After that conference, many intentional communities, including
Findhorn, began calling themselves "ecovillages", giving birth to a new
movement. The Global Ecovillage Network,
formed by a group of about 25 people from various countries who had
attended the Findhorn conference, crystallized the event by linking
hundreds of small projects from around the world, that had similar goals
but had formerly operated without knowledge of each other. Gaia Trust
of Denmark agreed to fund the network for its first five years.
Since the 1995 conference, a number of the early members of the
Global Ecovillage Network have tried other approaches to ecovillage
building in an attempt to build settlements that would be attractive to
mainstream culture in order to make sustainable development more
generally accepted. One of these with some degree of success is Living Villages
and The Wintles where eco-houses are arranged so that social
connectivity is maximized and residents have shared food growing areas,
woodlands, and animal husbandry for greater sustainability.
The most recent worldwide update emerges from the 2022 Annual
Report of GEN International, detailing the mapping of 1,043 ecovillage
communities on GEN's interactive ecovillage map.
GEN collaborated closely with a diverse array of researchers and
ecovillage communities spanning the globe to develop the Ecovillage
Impact Assessment. Their innovative tool serves as a means for
communities, groups, and individuals to accurately report, chart,
evaluate, and present their efforts toward fostering participatory
cultural, social, ecological, and economic regeneration. Over the course
of three years, from February 2021 to April 2024, data from 140 surveys
conducted within 75 ecovillages formed the basis of the comprehensive
results. Through this assessment ecovillages are empowered to understand
their impact and influence their community has had.
Case studies
Ecovillage
Location
Summary
Dancing Rabbit Ecovillage
Missouri, United States
The Dancing Rabbit Ecovillage was founded in 1997 and is located in a
rural landscape of northeastern Missouri. This community prides itself
on its organic permaculture gardens, natural buildings, alternative
energy solutions, and self-governance. As an intentional community, they
aim to live ecologically sustainable and socially share the principles
and practices of sustainable living with others. They offer many
programs such as women's retreats, work exchange and natural building
workshops demonstrating how they prioritize outreach, education, and
advocacy. As stated on their website they are committed stewards of the
land, focusing on wildlife habitat preservation, biodiversity
restoration, and sustainable forestry.
Cloughjordan
Ireland
The Cloughjordan Ecovillage was founded in 1999 and is located in a
sustainable neighborhood in a rural Ireland. This community encompasses a
67-acre site and has prided itself on their fiber optic broadband,
eco-hostels, and a thriving community with over 50 homes and businesses.
Cloughjordan serves as a sustainable neighborhood and is a focus for
research into sustainability, resilience, and rural regeneration.
Through renewable energy, community farming, and educational outreach,
Cloughjordan has demonstrated the potential for transitioning to a
low-carbon society. It also serves as a not-for-profit cooperative and
educational charity, proving their commitment to sustainability and
community development.
Sustainability alignment
Ecovillages
are defined by their commitment sustainability through a multitude of
design, lifestyle, and community objectives. They prioritize
environmental stewardship through various methods, including the
utilization of renewable energy sources, the minimization of waste
through recycling and composting, and the practice of organic
agriculture and permaculture. In many cases, these communities strive
for self-sufficiency in food production, with the aim of reducing the
ecological footprint associated with food transportation.
Ecovillage communities place a strong emphasis on the conservation of
resources through the application of green building techniques,
including passive solar design, natural insulation, and rainwater
harvesting. Additionally, they promote alternative modes of
transportation, such as cycling and walking, as a means of reducing
reliance on fossil fuels.
The objective of ecovillages is to cultivate robust social connections
and a sense of belonging among residents through the promotion of
collaboration, consensus-based decision-making, and shared
responsibilities. This approach fosters a supportive environment that
enhances both individual and collective resilience.
Ecovillages represent an international phenomenon that encompasses
cultural diversity, frequently integrating traditional wisdom alongside
innovative practices. Many ecovillages espouse multiculturalism,
indigenous knowledge, and participation as means of enhancing
intergenerational learning. In essence, these communities endeavor to
achieve sustainable living through a multitude of diverse efforts,
offering valuable insight into the creation of a sustainable
relationship between humanity and the natural world.
In essence, these communities aim for sustainable living through a
multitude of various efforts and offer valuable insight for creating a
sustainable relationship between humanity and the natural world.
Environmental impact
The
formation of ecovillages is frequently driven by a concern for
environmental stewardship and a commitment to sustainable practices.
Ecovillages frequently employ reusable power sources, such as solar and
wind energy, and utilize natural materials, including mud, wood, and
straw, in their construction. Such technologies as bioclimatic
agriculture are employed in this regard.
A study on an ecovillage in Ithaca, New York found that the
average ecological footprint of a resident in the ecovillage was 70%
less than the ecological footprint of most Americans. Ecovillage residents seek a sustainable lifestyle (for example, of voluntary simplicity) for inhabitants with a minimum of trade outside the local area, or ecoregion.
Many seek independence from existing infrastructures, although others,
particularly in more urban settings, pursue more integration with
existing infrastructure. Rural ecovillages are usually based on organic farming, permaculture and other approaches which promote ecosystem function and biodiversity.
Ecovillages, whether urban or rural, tend to integrate community and
ecological values within a principle-based approach to sustainability,
such as permaculture design.
In 2019, a study assessed the impact of community sustainability
through a life cycle assessment conducted on three ecovillages. The
results of this study revealed a substantial reduction in carbon
emissions among residents of these ecovillages when compared to the
average United States citizen. This study reported that residents had a
63% to 71% decrease in carbon emissions due to living in an ecovillage
with sustainable practices and mitigation efforts to environmental
impact.
Governance
Ecovillages,
while united by their commitment to sustainability and communal living,
often differ in their approaches to governance. Every ecovillage
strives to reflect the diverse needs and values of their communities.
Ultimately, the choice of governance model within ecovillages aims to
demonstrates a balance between fostering community cohesion, promoting
sustainability, and accommodating the varied needs and values of their
members.
Establishing governance is a common method used by ecovillages to align individual actions with community objectives.
Most ecovillages maintain a distinct set of policies to govern aspects
of what keeps their society functioning. Policies within ecovillages are
meant to evolve with new situations prompting revisions to existing
guidelines. Ecovillages commonly incorporate elements of consensus
decision-making into their governance processes. This approach aims to mitigate hierarchies, power imbalances, and inflexibility within their governments.
The governmental framework designed in the Ecovillage Tamera, Portugal
promotes inclusivity that actively works to combat hierarchical
structures. The Tamera community attributes their success to their
Women's Council who confront patriarchal norms and empower women within
the governance system.
Members of ecovillage communities will select their peers to serve as
government members based off established trust within the community,
this serves as an active strategy to mitigate the emergence of
hierarchies.
Through involvement of community members in reviewing and revising
existing rules, ecovillages ensure flexibility and adaptability to
evolving needs. Active participation in policy formulation fosters a
sense of ownership among members regarding community expectations and
boundaries.
Ecovillage community members express their contentment knowing they had
the opportunity to voice their concerns and contribute to the
decision-making process.
Each ecovillage exhibits a unique approach to how they will
develop their governance. Ecovillages acknowledge that there is a
delicate balance in maintaining a functioning community that appreciates
and considers the perspectives of its members. Through active
involvement in the governance processes, ecovillages demonstrate a
commitment to inclusivity, adaptability, and collective empowerment,
demonstrating the principles of collaborative decision-making and
community-driven change.
Challenges
While
ecovillages aim to embody admirable dimensions of sustainability and
community, they are not without their challenges. One significant
challenge is the initial investment required to establish or transition
to an ecovillage lifestyle.
The costs of acquiring land, implementing sustainable infrastructure,
and maintaining communal facilities can be prohibitive for some
individuals or groups making available funds a limiting factor.
Conflicts can arise regarding community rules, resource allocation, or
individual responsibilities, it can be difficult to maintain cohesion
which can be expected in any community type. An explorative study
results concluded that the perceived quality of life of residents in
eco-developments rated higher perceived quality of life than residents
of developments in conventional settings while still noting various
challenges they experienced.
Another noteworthy challenge can be limited access to resources, like
land that is adequate for agriculture, available water or renewable
energy potential which can limit the viability of ecovillage
initiatives.
