NASA recently posted that Greenland is currently losing ice at 238 (or maybe 287) billion tons/year. When I pointed out that this is only 0.1% of the total Greenland ice mass, I was criticized for not taking into account that (a), only a very small fraction of the melt could significantly rise sea levels, and that (b) the melting had been (recently) rising about 2-fold over six year, such that the entire melt could happen before 2100. Fair enough, though I could point out out other facts that could challenge the criticisms, and that the point of my comment -- scary sound bites out of context that didn't promote scientific literacy about science -- was being ignored.
A new, and critical, fact about arctic warming has just been pointed out by "Climate News" (see link above), one that throws a serious monkey wrench into the entire debate. I'll repeat the entire post below:
Arctic and Antarctic Temperature Anomaly & The AMO
The 'Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation' (AMO) entered its warm-phase in the mid 1990's. When this happened, Arctic temperature began to warm and Arctic ice began to decline.
The attached graph [above] shows Arctic and Antarctic temperature anomalies. Notice the increase in Arctic temperature anomaly in the mid 1990's? Something triggered it; and I bet it was the warm-phase of the AMO.
The top graph is the Arctic Temperature Anomaly. The graphic on the right is the AMO Index (graphed [above]). We can clearly see that the Arctic began to warm when the AMO flipped to its warm-phase.
Observations seem to show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has an influence on Arctic temperature, and on sea ice.
The graph at the bottom shows Antarctic temperature anomaly. As you can see, Antarctica hasn't been warming.
Climate data Source: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS)
The graph at the bottom shows Antarctic temperature anomaly. As you can see, Antarctica hasn't been warming.
Climate data Source: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS)
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This data, which I doubt was first discovered by Climate News, strongly suggests that the current arctic warm period will come to and end in the early to mid 2020s; that the arctic will cool (at least relatively), and the melting will be reduced significantly. If data from the Antarctic are any guide, arctic temperatures could even cool back to pre 1990 levels, and ice melting likewise.
All of which brings me back to my point. Frightening numbers posted out of any context only confuse people and counter scientific literacy. It also suggests that NASA is biased (probably due to Hansen's reign), and so should not be in the in the climate prediction business (though they are of course a necessary part of it).
