Futures studies
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Moore's law is an example of futures studies; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accurately
extrapolating future trends.
Futures studies (also called
futurology and
futurism) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable
futures
and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as
to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be
considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field
of
history.
History studies the past, futures studies considers the future. Futures
studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's
practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what
could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic
and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine
the likelihood of future events and trends.
[1]
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is
studied, futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world
system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared
to
natural science or even
social science like
sociology,
economics, and
political science.
Overview
Futures studies is an
interdisciplinary field,
studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing
both lay and professional strategies and opinions with respect to
tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of
change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight and to map
possible futures. Around the world the field is variously referred to as
futures studies,
strategic foresight,
futuristics,
futures thinking,
futuring,
futurology, and
futurism. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the
English-speaking world.
Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense by
H.G. Wells in 1932.
[2]
"Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used
almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the
English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the
future."
[3] The term was coined by
German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim
[citation needed] in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of
probability.
This term may have fallen from favor in recent decades because modern
practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures,
rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and
probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
[citation needed]
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research
conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines
overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines
not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card"
futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a
holistic or
systemic
view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third,
futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant
and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but
fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the
collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others
believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight
approach would seek to analyse and so highlight the assumptions
underpinning such views.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as
interest rates over the next
business cycle,
or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most
strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred
futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered
futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that
specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely
part of the field.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed
supernatural
means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the models such
groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.
History
Johan Galtung and
Sohail Inayatullah[4] argue in
Macrohistory and Macrohistorians that the search for grand patterns of social change goes all the way back to
Ssu-Ma Chien (145-90BC) and his theory of the cycles of virtue, although the work of
Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) such as
The Muqaddimah[5]
would be an example that is perhaps more intelligible to modern
sociology. Some intellectual foundations of futures studies appeared in
the mid-19th century; according to Wendell Bell,
Comte's discussion of the metapatterns of
social change presages futures studies as a scholarly
dialogue.
[6]
The first works that attempt to make systematic predictions for the future were written in the 18th century.
Memoirs of the Twentieth Century written by
Samuel Madden
in 1733, takes the form of a series of diplomatic letters written in
1997 and 1998 from British representatives in the foreign cities of
Constantinople,
Rome,
Paris, and
Moscow.
[7]
However, the technology of the 20th century is identical to that of
Madden's own era - the focus is instead on the political and religious
state of the world in the future. Madden went on to write
The Reign of George VI, 1900 to 1925, where (in the context of the
boom in canal construction at the time)
he envisioned a large network of waterways that would radically
transform patterns of living - "Villages grew into towns and towns
became cities".
[8]
The genre of science fiction became established towards the end of the 19th century, with notable writers, including
Jules Verne and
H. G. Wells, setting their stories in an imagined future world.
Origins
H. G. Wells first advocated for 'future studies', in a lecture delivered in 1902.
According to
W. Warren Wagar, the founder of future studies was
H. G. Wells. His
Anticipations of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought: An Experiment in Prophecy, was first serially published in
The Fortnightly Review in 1901.
[9]
Anticipating what the world would be like in the year 2000, the book is
interesting both for its hits (trains and cars resulting in the
dispersion of population from cities to suburbs; moral restrictions
declining as men and women seek greater sexual freedom; the defeat of
German
militarism, and the existence of a European Union) and its misses (he did not expect successful
aircraft
before 1950, and averred that "my imagination refuses to see any sort
of submarine doing anything but suffocate its crew and founder at sea").
[10][11]
Moving from narrow technological predictions, Wells envisioned the eventual collapse of the
capitalist world system after a series of destructive
total wars. From this havoc would ultimately emerge a world of peace and plenty, controlled by competent
technocrats.
[9]
The work was a
bestseller, and Wells was invited to deliver a lecture at the
Royal Institution in 1902, entitled
The Discovery of the Future.
The lecture was well-received and was soon republished in book form. He
advocated for the establishment of a new academic study of the future
that would be grounded in scientific methodology rather than just
speculation. He argued that a scientifically ordered vision of the
future "will be just as certain, just as strictly science, and perhaps
just as detailed as the picture that has been built up within the last
hundred years to make the geological past." Although conscious of the
difficulty in arriving at entirely accurate predictions, he thought that
it would still be possible to arrive at a "working knowledge of things
in the future".
[9]
In his fictional works, Wells predicted the invention and use of the
atomic bomb in
The World Set Free (1914).
[12] In
The Shape of Things to Come (1933) the impending
World War and cities destroyed by aerial bombardment was depicted.
[13] However, he didn't stop advocating for the establishment of a futures science. In a 1933
BBC
broadcast he called for the establishment of "Departments and
Professors of Foresight", foreshadowing the development of modern
academic futures studies by approximately 40 years.
[14]
Emergence
Futures studies emerged as an academic discipline in the mid-1960s. First-generation futurists included
Herman Kahn, an American
Cold War strategist who wrote
On Thermonuclear War (1960),
Thinking about the unthinkable (1962) and
The Year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years (1967);
Bertrand de Jouvenel, a French economist who founded
Futuribles International in 1960; and
Dennis Gabor, a Hungarian-British scientist who wrote
Inventing the Future (1963) and
The Mature Society. A View of the Future (1972).
[6]
Future studies had a parallel origin with the birth of
systems science in
academia, and with the idea of national economic and political
planning, most notably in
France and the
Soviet Union.
[6][15]
In the 1950s, France was continuing to reconstruct their war-torn
country. In the process, French scholars, philosophers, writers, and
artists searched for what could constitute a more positive future for
humanity. The
Soviet Union similarly participated in postwar rebuilding, but did so in the context of an established
national economic planning process,
which also required a long-term, systemic statement of social goals.
Future studies was therefore primarily engaged in national planning, and
the construction of national symbols.
By contrast, in the
United States of America, futures studies as a discipline emerged from the successful application of the tools and perspectives of
systems analysis,
especially with regard to quartermastering the war-effort. These
differing origins account for an initial schism between futures studies
in America and futures studies in Europe: U.S. practitioners focused on
applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis, whereas
Europeans preferred to investigate the long-range future of humanity and the
Earth, what might constitute that future, what symbols and
semantics might express it, and who might articulate these.
[16][17]
By the 1960s, academics, philosophers, writers and artists across the
globe had begun to explore enough future scenarios so as to fashion a
common dialogue. Inventors such as
Buckminster Fuller
also began highlighting the effect technology might have on global
trends as time progressed. This discussion on the intersection of
population growth, resource availability and use, economic growth,
quality of life, and environmental sustainability – referred to as the
"global problematique" – came to wide public attention with the
publication of
Limits to Growth, a study sponsored by the
Club of Rome.
[18]
Further development
International dialogue became institutionalized in the form of the
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967, with the noted sociologist,
Johan Galtung, serving as its first president. In the United States, the publisher
Edward Cornish, concerned with these issues, started the
World Future Society, an organization focused more on interested laypeople.
1975 saw the founding of the first graduate program in futures
studies in the United States, the M.S. program in Studies of the Future
at the
University of Houston–Clear Lake;
[19] there followed a year later the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the
University of Hawaii at Manoa.
[20]
The Hawaii program provides particular interest in the light of the
schism in perspective between European and U.S. futurists; it bridges
that schism by locating futures studies within a pedagogical space
defined by
neo-Marxism, critical political
economic theory, and
literary criticism.
In the years following the foundation of these two programs, single
courses in Futures Studies at all levels of education have proliferated,
but complete programs occur only rarely.
As a transdisciplinary field, futures studies attracts generalists.
This transdisciplinary nature can also cause problems, owing to it
sometimes falling between the cracks of disciplinary boundaries; it also
has caused some difficulty in achieving recognition within the
traditional curricula of the sciences and the humanities. In contrast to
"Futures Studies" at the undergraduate level, some graduate programs in
strategic
leadership or
management offer masters or doctorate programs in "
strategic foresight"
for mid-career professionals, some even online. Nevertheless,
comparatively few new PhDs graduate in Futures Studies each year.
The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a coherent
conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented curriculum (or
curricula) featuring widely accepted and consistent concepts and
theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and qualitative methods,
exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines for their ethical
and appropriate application within society. As an indication that
previously disparate intellectual dialogues have in fact started
converging into a recognizable discipline,
[21]
at least six solidly-researched and well-accepted first attempts to
synthesize a coherent framework for the field have appeared: Eleonora
Masini's Why Futures Studies,
[22] James Dator's Advancing Futures Studies,
[23] Ziauddin Sardar's Rescuing all of our Futures,
[24] Sohail Inayatullah's Questioning the future,
[25] Richard A. Slaughter's
The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies,
[26] a collection of essays by senior practitioners, and Wendell Bell's two-volume work,
The Foundations of Futures Studies.
[27]
Probability and predictability
Some aspects of the future, such as
celestial mechanics,
are highly predictable, and may even be described by relatively simple
mathematical models. At present however, science has yielded only a
special minority of such "easy to predict" physical processes. Theories
such as
chaos theory,
nonlinear science and standard
evolutionary theory have allowed us to understand many complex systems as
contingent (sensitively dependent on complex environmental conditions) and
stochastic (random within constraints), making the vast majority of future events unpredictable,
in any specific case.
Not surprisingly, the tension between
predictability and
unpredictability
is a source of controversy and conflict among futures studies scholars
and practitioners. Some argue that the future is essentially
unpredictable, and that "the best way to predict the future is to create
it." Others believe, as Flechtheim, that advances in science,
probability, modeling and statistics will allow us to continue to
improve our understanding of probable futures, while this area presently
remains less well developed than methods for exploring possible and
preferable futures.
As an example, consider the process of electing the president of the
United States. At one level we observe that any U.S. citizen over 35 may
run for president, so this process may appear too unconstrained for
useful prediction. Yet further investigation demonstrates that only
certain public individuals (current and former presidents and vice
presidents, senators, state governors, popular military commanders,
mayors of very large cities, etc.) receive the appropriate "social
credentials" that are historical prerequisites for election. Thus with a
minimum of effort at formulating the problem for statistical
prediction, a much reduced pool of candidates can be described,
improving our probabilistic foresight. Applying further statistical
intelligence to this problem, we can observe that in certain election
prediction markets such as the
Iowa Electronic Markets,
reliable forecasts have been generated over long spans of time and
conditions, with results superior to individual experts or polls. Such
markets, which may be operated publicly or as an
internal market, are just one of several promising frontiers in predictive futures research.
Such improvements in the predictability of individual events do not though, from a
complexity theory
viewpoint, address the unpredictability inherent in dealing with entire
systems, which emerge from the interaction between multiple individual
events.
Methodologies
Futures practitioners use a wide range of models and methods (theory
and practice), many of which come from other academic disciplines,
including
economics,
sociology,
geography,
history,
engineering,
mathematics,
psychology,
technology,
tourism,
physics,
biology,
astronomy, and aspects of
theology (specifically, the range of future beliefs).
One of the fundamental assumptions in futures studies is that the
future is plural not singular, that is, that it consists of alternative
futures of varying likelihood but that it is impossible in principle to
say with certainty which one will occur. The primary effort in Futures
studies, therefore, is to identify and describe alternative futures.
This effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about
the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plurality
of the term "futures" in futures studies denotes the rich variety of
alternative futures, including the subset of preferable futures
(normative futures), that can be studied.
Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on
extrapolating present
technological,
economic or
social trends, or on attempting to
predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social
systems and
uncertainties and to build
scenarios, question the worldviews behind such scenarios via the
causal layered analysis
method (and others), create preferred visions of the future, and use
backcasting to derive alternative implementation strategies. Apart from
extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques are
used in futures research (see below).
Futures studies also includes normative or preferred futures, but a
major contribution involves connecting both extrapolated (exploratory)
and normative research to help individuals and organisations to build
better social futures amid a (presumed) landscape of shifting social
changes. Practitioners use varying proportions of inspiration and
research. Futures studies only rarely uses the
scientific method
in the sense of controlled, repeatable and falsifiable experiments with
highly standardized methodologies, given that environmental conditions
for repeating a predictive scheme are usually quite hard to control.
However, many futurists are informed by scientific techniques. Some
historians project patterns observed in past civilizations upon
present-day society to anticipate what will happen in the future. Oswald
Spengler's "Decline of the West" argued, for instance, that western
society, like imperial Rome, had reached a stage of cultural maturity
that would inexorably lead to decline, in measurable ways.
Futures studies is often summarized as being concerned with "three Ps
and a W", or possible, probable, and preferable futures, plus
wildcards,
which are low probability but high impact events (positive or
negative), should they occur. Many futurists, however, do not use the
wild card approach. Rather, they use a methodology called
Emerging Issues Analysis. It searches for the seeds of change, issues that are likely to move from unknown to the known, from low impact to high impact.
Estimates of probability are involved with two of the four central
concerns of foresight professionals (discerning and classifying both
probable and wildcard events), while considering the range of possible
futures, recognizing the plurality of existing alternative futures,
characterizing and attempting to resolve normative disagreements on the
future, and envisioning and creating preferred futures are other major
areas of scholarship. Most estimates of probability in futures studies
are normative and qualitative, though significant progress on
statistical and quantitative methods (technology and information growth
curves, cliometrics, predictive psychology,
prediction markets, etc.) has been made in recent decades.
Futures techniques
While forecasting – i.e., attempts to predict future states from
current trends – is a common methodology, professional scenarios often
rely on "
backcasting": asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the
Policy Reform and
Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the
Global Scenario Group rely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or
foresight practitioners).
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including:
Shaping alternative futures
Futurists use scenarios – alternative possible futures – as an
important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider
probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods.
By
looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the
future, rather than merely predicting it. Shaping alternative futures
starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes
place as a process with many stages. One of those stages involves the
study of trends. A trend persists long-term and long-range; it affects
many societal groups, grows slowly and appears to have a profound basis.
In contrast, a fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of
fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Sample predicted futures range from predicted
ecological catastrophes, through a
utopian
future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day
observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation
of humanity into a
posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a
nanotechnological disaster.
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record
at successful prediction. For reasons of convenience, they often
extrapolate present technical and societal trends and assume they will
develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and
social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in
different areas at different rates.
Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace
space tourism by the year 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap
computers, while
Marxist
expectations have failed to materialise to date. On the other hand,
many forecasts have portrayed the future with some degree of accuracy.
Current futurists often present multiple
scenarios
that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of merely
"predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential
scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their
risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify
wild cards – low probability, potentially high-impact risks.
[28] Every successful and unsuccessful
business
engages in futuring to some degree – for example in research and
development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor
behavior and so on.
[29][30]
Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards
In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced,
noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems
that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory
action. There is confusion about the definition of weak signal by
various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future
oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. Elina
Hiltunen (2007), in her new concept
the future sign has tried to
clarify the confusion about the weak signal definitions, by combining
signal, issue and interpretation to the future sign, which more
holistically describes the change.
[31]
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events, such as
existential risks.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and
introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to
increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in
turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might
constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system.
Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are
incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information
might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals
are considered as synonyms, which they are not.
[32]
Near-term predictions
A long-running tradition in various
cultures, and especially in the
media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These
predictions
sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies,
fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major
events might take place over the course of the next year.
Some of these predictions come true as the year unfolds, though many
fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the
predictions often state that misinterpretation of the "
signs" and
portents may explain the failure of the prediction.
Marketers
have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to
benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast
production cycles, using such techniques as
trendspotting as popularized by
Faith Popcorn.
[dubious – discuss]
Trend analysis and forecasting
Mega-trends
Trends come in different sizes. A mega-trend extends over many
generations, and in cases of climate, mega-trends can cover periods
prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between
many factors. The increase in population from the
palaeolithic period to the present provides an example.
Potential trends
Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or
actions that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in
the future. For example, just a few years ago,
alternative medicine remained an outcast from
modern medicine. Now it has links with
big business
and has achieved a degree of respectability in some circles and even in
the marketplace. This increasing level of acceptance illustrates a
potential trend of society to move away from the sciences, even beyond
the scope of medicine.
Branching trends
Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk
relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement
toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend.
The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women
in the
Western world could form a twig on that branch.
Life-cycle of a trend
When does a potential trend gain acceptance as a bona fide trend?
When it gets enough confirmation in the various media, surveys or
questionnaires to show it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior
or
technology.
Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends
perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim
that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation,
project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes
mainstream.
Education
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the
United States of America
in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries.
Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes
that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and
imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
- conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
- develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures.
- understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
- conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of
Richard A. Slaughter (2004),
[33] David Hicks, Ivana Milojević
[34] and
Jennifer Gidley[35][36][37] to name a few.
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition,
numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary
from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to
programs that incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for
example in
planning, business, environmental studies,
economics, development studies,
science
and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on
six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have
incorporated futures studies. A recent survey documented approximately
50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.
[38]
The largest Futures Studies program in the world is at
Tamkang University, Taiwan.
[citation needed]
Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with
between three to five thousand students taking classes on an annual
basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA
Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program.
Associated with the program is the
Journal of Futures Studies.
[39]
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the
world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The
World Futures Studies Federation[40] has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The
Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.
[41]
Futurists
Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research
trends, particularly in technology, and write their observations,
conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, many futurists were at
academic institutions.
John McHale, author of
The Future of the Future, published a 'Futures Directory', and directed a
think tank called
The Centre For Integrative Studies at a university. Futurists have started
consulting groups or earn money as speakers, with examples including
Alvin Toffler,
John Naisbitt and
Patrick Dixon.
Frank Feather is a business speaker that presents himself as a pragmatic futurist. Some futurists have commonalities with
science fiction, and some science-fiction writers, such as
Arthur C. Clarke, are known as futurists.
[citation needed] In the introduction to
The Left Hand of Darkness,
Ursula K. Le Guin
distinguished futurists from novelists, writing of the study as the
business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists. In her words, "a
novelist's business is lying".
A survey of 108 futurists
[42] found the following shared assumptions:
- We are in the midst of a historical transformation. Current times are not just part of normal history.
- Multiple perspectives are at heart of futures studies, including
unconventional thinking, internal critique, and cross-cultural
comparison.
- Consideration of alternatives. Futurists do not see themselves as
value-free forecasters, but instead aware of multiple possibilities.
- Participatory futures. Futurists generally see their role as
liberating the future in each person, and creating enhanced public
ownership of the future. This is true worldwide.[clarification needed]
- Long term policy transformation. While some are more policy-oriented
than others, almost all believe that the work of futurism is to shape
public policy, so it consciously and explicitly takes into account the
long term.
- Part of the process of creating alternative futures and of
influencing public (corporate, or international) policy is internal
transformation. At international meetings, structural and individual
factors are considered equally important.
- Complexity. Futurists believe that a simple one-dimensional or
single-discipline orientation is not satisfactory. Trans-disciplinary
approaches that take complexity seriously are necessary. Systems
thinking, particularly in its evolutionary dimension, is also crucial.
- Futurists are motivated by change. They are not content merely to
describe or forecast. They desire an active role in world
transformation.
- They are hopeful for a better future as a "strange attractor".
- Most believe they are pragmatists in this world, even as they
imagine and work for another. Futurists have a long term perspective.
- Sustainable futures, understood as making decisions that do not
reduce future options, that include policies on nature, gender and other
accepted paradigms. This applies to corporate futurists and the NGO. Environmental
sustainability is reconciled with the technological, spiritual and
post-structural ideals. Sustainability is not a "back to nature" ideal,
but rather inclusive of technology and culture.
Application of foresight to specific fields
Fashion and design
Fashion is one area of trend forecasting. The industry typically works 18 months ahead of the current selling season.
[citation needed]
Large retailers look at the obvious impact of everything from the
weather forecast to runway fashion for consumer tastes. Consumer
behavior and statistics are also important for a long-range forecast.
Artists and conceptual designers, by contrast, may feel that consumer
trends are a barrier to creativity. Many of these ‘startists’ start
micro trends but do not follow trends themselves.
[citation needed]
Design
Foresight and futures thinking are rapidly being adopted by the
design industry to insure more sustainable, robust and humanistic
products. Design, much like future studies is an interdisciplinary field
that considers global trends, challenges and opportunities to foster
innovation. Designers are thus adopting futures methodologies including
scenarios, trend forecasting, and futures research.
Holistic thinking that incorporates strategic, innovative and
anticipatory solutions gives designers the tools necessary to navigate
complex problems and develop novel future enhancing and visionary
solutions.
The Association for Professional Futurists has also held meetings
discussing the ways in which Design Thinking and Futures Thinking
intersect.
Energy and Alternative Sources
While the price of oil probably will go down and up, the basic price
trajectory is sharply up. Market forces will play an important role, but
there are not enough new sources of oil in the Earth to make up for
escalating demands from China, India, and the Middle East, and to
replace declining fields. And while many alternative sources of energy
exist in principle, none exists in fact in quality or quantity
sufficient to make up for the shortfall of oil soon enough. A growing
gap looms between the effective end of the Age of Oil and the possible
emergence of new energy sources.
[43]
Research centers
- Graduate Degree in Foresight, University of Houston[44]
- Institute for Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch
- Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- The Foresight Programme, London, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
- The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland
- Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
- Institute for Futures Research, South Africa
- Kairos Future, Sweden
- Institute for the Future, Palo Alto, California
- National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Washington DC
- Singularity Institute, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Tellus Institute, Boston MA
- World Future Society
- World Futures Studies Federation, world
- Future of Humanity Institute
Futurists and foresight thought leaders
Books
Periodicals and Monographs
Organizations
