Greenhouse gas

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Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Energy influx and emittance are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m²).

A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.^[1] The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about 15 °C (27 °F) colder than the present average of 14 °C (57 °F).^[2][3][4] In the Solar System, the atmospheres of Venus, Mars and Titan also contain gases that cause a greenhouse effect.

Human activities since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (taken as the year 1750) have produced a 40% increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, from 280 ppm in 1750 to 400 ppm in 2015.^[5][6] This increase has occurred despite the uptake of a large portion of the emissions by various natural "sinks" involved in the carbon cycle.^[7][8] Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions (i.e. emissions produced by human activities) come from combustion of carbon-based fuels, principally coal, oil, and natural gas, along with deforestation.^[9]

It has been estimated that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the present rate, Earth's surface temperature could exceed historical values as early as 2047, with potentially harmful effects on ecosystems, biodiversity and the livelihoods of people worldwide.^[10]

Gases in Earth's atmosphere

Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric absorption and scattering at different wavelengths of electromagnetic waves. The largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the infrared.

Greenhouse gases are those that absorb and emit infrared radiation in the wavelength range emitted by Earth.^[1] In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are:

• Water vapor (H
  2O)
• Carbon dioxide (CO₂)
• Methane (CH
  4)
• Nitrous oxide (N
  2O)
• Ozone (O
  3)
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are determined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the atmosphere by conversion to a different chemical compound).^[11] The proportion of an emission remaining in the atmosphere after a specified time is the "airborne fraction" (AF). More precisely, the annual AF is the ratio of the atmospheric increase in a given year to that year's total emissions. For CO₂ the AF over the last 50 years (1956–2006) has been increasing at 0.25 ± 0.21%/year.^[12]

Non-greenhouse gases

Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions, the major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N
2), oxygen (O
2), and argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is because molecules containing two atoms of the same element such as N
2 and O
2 and monatomic molecules such as argon (Ar) have no net change in their dipole moment when they vibrate and hence are almost totally unaffected by infrared radiation. Although molecules containing two atoms of different elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl) absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. Because CO and HCl do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect, they are usually omitted when discussing greenhouse gases.

Indirect radiative effects

The false colors in this image represent concentrations of carbon monoxide in the lower atmosphere, ranging from about 390 parts per billion (dark brown pixels), to 220 parts per billion (red pixels), to 50 parts per billion (blue pixels).^[13]

Some gases have indirect radiative effects (whether or not they are greenhouse gases themselves). This happens in two main ways. One way is that when they break down in the atmosphere they produce another greenhouse gas. For example, methane and carbon monoxide (CO) are oxidized to give carbon dioxide (and methane oxidation also produces water vapor; that will be considered below). Oxidation of CO to CO₂ directly produces an unambiguous increase in radiative forcing although the reason is subtle. The peak of the thermal IR emission from Earth's surface is very close to a strong vibrational absorption band of CO₂ (667 cm⁻¹). On the other hand, the single CO vibrational band only absorbs IR at much higher frequencies (2145 cm⁻¹), where the ~300 K thermal emission of the surface is at least a factor of ten lower. On the other hand, oxidation of methane to CO₂, which requires reactions with the OH radical, produces an instantaneous reduction, since CO₂ is a weaker greenhouse gas than methane; but it has a longer lifetime. As described below this is not the whole story, since the oxidations of CO and CH
4 are intertwined by both consuming OH radicals. In any case, the calculation of the total radiative effect needs to include both the direct and indirect forcing.

A second type of indirect effect happens when chemical reactions in the atmosphere involving these gases change the concentrations of greenhouse gases. For example, the destruction of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) in the atmosphere can produce ozone. The size of the indirect effect can depend strongly on where and when the gas is emitted.^[14]

Methane has a number of indirect effects in addition to forming CO₂. Firstly, the main chemical that destroys methane in the atmosphere is the hydroxyl radical (OH). Methane reacts with OH and so more methane means that the concentration of OH goes down. Effectively, methane increases its own atmospheric lifetime and therefore its overall radiative effect. The second effect is that the oxidation of methane can produce ozone. Thirdly, as well as making CO₂ the oxidation of methane produces water; this is a major source of water vapor in the stratosphere, which is otherwise very dry. CO and NMVOC also produce CO₂ when they are oxidized. They remove OH from the atmosphere and this leads to higher concentrations of methane. The surprising effect of this is that the global warming potential of CO is three times that of CO₂.^[15] The same process that converts NMVOC to carbon dioxide can also lead to the formation of tropospheric ozone. Halocarbons have an indirect effect because they destroy stratospheric ozone. Finally hydrogen can lead to ozone production and CH
4 increases as well as producing water vapor in the stratosphere.^[14]

Contribution of clouds to Earth's greenhouse effect

The major non-gas contributor to Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the greenhouse gases. Clouds are water droplets or ice crystals suspended in the atmosphere.^[16][17]

Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect

Schmidt et al. (2010)^[18] analysed how individual components of the atmosphere contribute to the total greenhouse effect. They estimated that water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth's greenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, carbon dioxide 20%, and the minor greenhouse gases and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. In the study, the reference model atmosphere is for 1980 conditions. Image credit: NASA.^[19]

The contribution of each gas to the greenhouse effect is affected by the characteristics of that gas, its abundance, and any indirect effects it may cause. For example, the direct radiative effect of a mass of methane is about 72 times stronger than the same mass of carbon dioxide over a 20-year time frame^[20] but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is smaller, in part due to its shorter atmospheric lifetime. On the other hand, in addition to its direct radiative impact, methane has a large, indirect radiative effect because it contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. (2005)^[21] argue that the contribution to climate change from methane is at least double previous estimates as a result of this effect.^[22]

When ranked by their direct contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:^[16]

Compound	Formula	Concentration in atmosphere[23] (ppm)	Contribution (%)
Water vapor and clouds	H 2O	10–50,000(A)	36–72%
Carbon dioxide	CO2	~400	9–26%
Methane	CH 4	~1.8	4–9%
Ozone	O 3	2–8(B)	3–7%
notes: (A) Water vapor strongly varies locally[24] (B) The concentration in stratosphere. About 90% of the ozone in Earth's atmosphere is contained in the stratosphere.

In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small quantities.^[25]

Proportion of direct effects at a given moment

It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases.^[16][17]
In addition, some gases such as methane are known to have large indirect effects that are still being quantified.^[26]

Atmospheric lifetime

Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,^[27] major greenhouse gases are well mixed and take many years to leave the atmosphere.^[28] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)^[29] defines the lifetime of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically can be defined as the ratio of the mass (in kg) of X in the box to its removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box (), chemical loss of X (), and deposition of X () (all in kg/s): .^[29] If one stopped pouring any of this gas into the box, then after a time , its concentration would be about halved.

The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following a sudden increase or decrease in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime.

Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.^[30] The atmospheric lifetime of CO₂ is estimated of the order of 30–95 years.^[31] This figure accounts for CO₂ molecules being removed from the atmosphere by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, and other processes. However, this excludes the balancing fluxes of CO₂ into the atmosphere from the geological reservoirs, which have slower characteristic rates.^[32] Although more than half of the CO₂ emitted is removed from the atmosphere within a century, some fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.^{[33] [34] [35]} Similar issues apply to other greenhouse gases, many of which have longer mean lifetimes than CO₂. E.g., N₂O has a mean atmospheric lifetime of 114 years.^[20]

Radiative forcing

Earth absorbs some of the radiant energy received from the sun, reflects some of it as light and reflects or radiates the rest back to space as heat.^[36] Earth's surface temperature depends on this balance between incoming and outgoing energy.^[36] If this energy balance is shifted, Earth's surface could become warmer or cooler, leading to a variety of changes in global climate.^[36]

A number of natural and man-made mechanisms can affect the global energy balance and force changes in Earth's climate.^[36] Greenhouse gases are one such mechanism.^[36] Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and re-emit some of the outgoing energy radiated from Earth's surface, causing that heat to be retained in the lower atmosphere.^[36] As explained above, some greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, and therefore can affect Earth's energy balance over a long time period.^[36] Factors that influence Earth's energy balance can be quantified in terms of "radiative climate forcing."^[36] Positive radiative forcing indicates warming (for example, by increasing incoming energy or decreasing the amount of energy that escapes to space), whereas negative forcing is associated with cooling.^[36]

Global warming potential

The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO₂ and evaluated for a specific timescale. Thus, if a gas has a high (positive) radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20-year scale but a small one on a 100-year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO₂ its GWP will increase with the timescale considered. Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.

Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years. The 2007 IPCC report lists the GWP as 72 over a time scale of 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 years.^[20] A 2014 analysis, however, states that although methane's initial impact is about 100 times greater than that of CO₂, because of the shorter atmospheric lifetime, after six or seven decades, the impact of the two gases is about equal, and from then on methane's relative role continues to decline.^[37] The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO₂ through chemical reactions in the atmosphere.

Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO₂ for several greenhouse gases are given in the following table:^[20]

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO₂ at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.

Gas name	Chemical formula	Lifetime (years)	Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
			20-yr	100-yr	500-yr
Carbon dioxide	CO2	30–95	1	1	1
Methane	CH 4	12	72	25	7.6
Nitrous oxide	N 2O	114	289	298	153
CFC-12	CCl 2F 2	100	11 000	10 900	5 200
HCFC-22	CHClF 2	12	5 160	1 810	549
Tetrafluoromethane	CF 4	50 000	5 210	7 390	11 200
Hexafluoroethane	C 2F 6	10 000	8 630	12 200	18 200
Sulfur hexafluoride	SF 6	3 200	16 300	22 800	32 600
Nitrogen trifluoride	NF 3	740	12 300	17 200	20 700

The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.^[38] The phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.^[39]

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere if half of global-warming emissions^[40][41] are not absorbed.
(NASA simulation; 9 November 2015)

Nitrogen dioxide 2014 – global air quality levels
(released 14 December 2015).^[42]

Natural and anthropogenic sources

Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured in the atmosphere and reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

This diagram shows a simplified representation of the contemporary global carbon cycle. Changes are measured in gigatons of carbon per year (GtC/y). Canadell et al. (2007) estimated the growth rate of global average atmospheric CO₂ for 2000–2006 as 1.93 parts-per-million per year (4.1 petagrams of carbon per year).^[43]

Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly constant. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.^[44][45]

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century".^[46] In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.

Abbreviations used in the two tables below: ppm = parts-per-million; ppb = parts-per-billion; ppt = parts-per-trillion; W/m² = watts per square metre

Current greenhouse gas concentrations^[5]

Gas	Pre-1750 tropospheric concentration[47]	Recent tropospheric concentration[48]	Absolute increase since 1750	Percentage increase since 1750	Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)[49]
Carbon dioxide (CO2)	280 ppm[50]	395.4 ppm[51]	115.4 ppm	41.2%	1.88
Methane (CH 4)	700 ppb[52]	1893 ppb /[53] 1762 ppb[53]	1193 ppb / 1062 ppb	170.4% / 151.7%	0.49
Nitrous oxide (N 2O)	270 ppb[49][54]	326 ppb /[53] 324 ppb[53]	56 ppb / 54 ppb	20.7% / 20.0%	0.17
Tropospheric ozone (O 3)	237 ppb[47]	337 ppb[47]	100 ppb	42%	0.4[55]

Relevant to radiative forcing and/or ozone depletion; all of the following have no natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial^[5]

Gas	Recent tropospheric concentration	Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)
CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane) (CCl 3F)	236 ppt / 234 ppt	0.061
CFC-12 (CCl 2F 2)	527 ppt / 527 ppt	0.169
CFC-113 (Cl 2FC-CClF 2)	74 ppt / 74 ppt	0.022
HCFC-22 (CHClF 2)	231 ppt / 210 ppt	0.046
HCFC-141b (CH 3CCl 2F)	24 ppt / 21 ppt	0.0036
HCFC-142b (CH 3CClF 2)	23 ppt / 21 ppt	0.0042
Halon 1211 (CBrClF 2)	4.1 ppt / 4.0 ppt	0.0012
Halon 1301 (CBrClF 3)	3.3 ppt / 3.3 ppt	0.001
HFC-134a (CH 2FCF 3)	75 ppt / 64 ppt	0.0108
Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4)	85 ppt / 83 ppt	0.0143
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6)	7.79 ppt /[56] 7.39 ppt[56]	0.0043
Other halocarbons	Varies by substance	collectively 0.02
Halocarbons in total		0.3574

400,000 years of ice core data

Ice cores provide evidence for greenhouse gas concentration variations over the past 800,000 years (see the following section). Both CO₂ and CH
4 vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record that indicates CO₂ mole fractions stayed within a range of 180 ppm to 280 ppm throughout the last 800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO₂ levels were likely 10 times higher than now.^[57] Indeed, higher CO₂ concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma.^[58][59][60] The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO₂ concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of CO₂ have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.^[61] Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing that raised the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day.^[62] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.^[62][63][64]

Ice cores

Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial emissions started atmospheric CO₂ mole fractions were about 280 parts per million (ppm), and stayed between 260 and 280 during the preceding ten thousand years.^[65] Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago,^[66] though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO₂ variability.^[67][68] Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels.

Changes since the Industrial Revolution

Recent year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO₂.

Major greenhouse gas trends.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased. For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 ppm by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern pre-industrial levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to around 1973.^{[citation needed]}; however the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.^[69]

Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.^[70]
Today, the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 million tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock.^{[clarification needed]} This increase is the result of human activities by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and boreal regions.^[71]

The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases

This graph shows changes in the annual greenhouse gas index (AGGI) between 1979 and 2011. ^[72] The AGGI measures the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on their ability to cause changes in Earth's climate.^[72]

This bar graph shows global greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2005, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents.^[73]

Modern global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

Since about 1750 human activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.^[74] Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity,^[75] but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks, mainly photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. As a result of this balance, the atmospheric mole fraction of carbon dioxide remained between 260 and 280 parts per million for the 10,000 years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the industrial era.^[76]

It is likely that anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.^[77] Future warming is projected to have a range of impacts, including sea level rise,^[78] increased frequencies and severities of some extreme weather events,^[78] loss of biodiversity,^[79] and regional changes in agricultural productivity.^[79]

The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:

• burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. Land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) account for up to one third of total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.^[76]
• livestock enteric fermentation and manure management,^[80] paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane.
• use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes.
• agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N
  2O) concentrations.

The seven sources of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):^[81]

Seven main fossil fuel combustion sources	Contribution (%)
Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil)	36%
Solid fuels (e.g., coal)	35%
Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas)	20%
Cement production	3 %
Flaring gas industrially and at wells	< 1%
Non-fuel hydrocarbons	< 1%
"International bunker fuels" of transport not included in national inventories[82]	4 %

Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide (N
2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride (SF
6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs)) are the major anthropogenic greenhouse gases,^[83]:147[84] and are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol international treaty, which came into force in 2005.^[85] Emissions limitations specified in the Kyoto Protocol expired in 2012.^[85] The Cancún agreement, agreed in 2010, includes voluntary pledges made by 76 countries to control emissions.^[86] At the time of the agreement, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.^[86]

Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media.

Tourism[edit]

According to UNEP global tourism is closely linked to climate change. Tourism is a significant contributor to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Tourism accounts for about 50% of traffic movements. Rapidly expanding air traffic contributes about 2.5% of the production of CO₂. The number of international travelers is expected to increase from 594 million in 1996 to 1.6 billion by 2020, adding greatly to the problem unless steps are taken to reduce emissions.^[87]

Road Haulage

The road haulage industry plays a part in production of CO₂, contributing around 20% of the UK’s total carbon emissions a year, with only the energy industry having a larger impact at around 39%.^[88] Average carbon emissions within the haulage industry are falling—in the thirty-year period from 1977–2007, the carbon emissions associated with a 200-mile journey fell by 21 percent; NOx emissions are also down 87 percent, whereas journey times have fallen by around a third.^[89] Due to their size, HGVs often receive criticism regarding their CO2 emissions; however, rapid development in engine technology and fuel management is having a largely positive effect.

Role of water vapor

Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere at Boulder, Colorado.

Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds.^[17] Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not significantly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales, such as near irrigated fields. The atmospheric concentration of vapor is highly variable and depends largely on temperature, from less than 0.01% in extremely cold regions up to 3% by mass at in saturated air at about 32 °C.^[90] (See Relative humidity#other important facts.)

The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH
4 and CO₂.^[91] Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation establishes that more water vapor will be present per unit volume at elevated temperatures. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor (assuming that the relative humidity remains approximately constant; modeling and observational studies find that this is indeed so). Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this results in further warming and so is a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. Eventually other earth processes offset these positive feedbacks, stabilizing the global temperature at a new equilibrium and preventing the loss of Earth's water through a Venus-like runaway greenhouse effect.^[92]

Direct greenhouse gas emissions

Between the period 1970 to 2004, GHG emissions (measured in CO₂-equivalent)^[93] increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year, with CO₂ emissions from the use of fossil fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per year.^[94][95] Total anthropogenic emissions at the end of 2009 were estimated at 49.5 gigatonnes CO₂-equivalent.^[96]:15 These emissions include CO₂ from fossil fuel use and from land use, as well as emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and other GHGs covered by the Kyoto Protocol.
At present, the primary source of CO₂ emissions is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum for electricity and heat.^[97]

Regional and national attribution of emissions

This figure shows the relative fraction of anthropogenic greenhouse gases coming from each of eight categories of sources, as estimated by the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project [1]. These values are intended to provide a snapshot of global annual greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000. The top panel shows the sum over all anthropogenic greenhouse gases, weighted by their global warming potential over the next 100 years. This consists of 72% carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8% nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower panels show the comparable information for each of these three primary greenhouse gases, with the same coloring of sectors as used in the top chart. Segments with less than 1% fraction are not labeled.

There are several different ways of measuring GHG emissions, for example, see World Bank (2010)^[98]:362 for tables of national emissions data. Some variables that have been reported^[99] include:

• Definition of measurement boundaries: Emissions can be attributed geographically, to the area where they were emitted (the territory principle) or by the activity principle to the territory produced the emissions. These two principles result in different totals when measuring, for example, electricity importation from one country to another, or emissions at an international airport.
• Time horizon of different GHGs: Contribution of a given GHG is reported as a CO₂ equivalent. The calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always known accurately and calculations must be regularly updated to reflect new information.
• What sectors are included in the calculation (e.g., energy industries, industrial processes, agriculture etc.): There is often a conflict between transparency and availability of data.
• The measurement protocol itself: This may be via direct measurement or estimation. The four main methods are the emission factor-based method, mass balance method, predictive emissions monitoring systems, and continuous emissions monitoring systems. These methods differ in accuracy, cost, and usability.

These different measures are sometimes used by different countries to assert various policy/ethical positions on climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 94).^[100] This use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.^[99]

Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs (IEA, 2007, p. 199).^[101]

The national accounts balance would be positively related to carbon emissions. The national accounts balance shows the difference between exports and imports. For many richer nations, such as the United States, the accounts balance is negative because more goods are imported than they are exported. This is mostly due to the fact that it is cheaper to produce goods outside of developed countries, leading the economies of developed countries to become increasingly dependent on services and not goods. We believed that a positive accounts balance would means that more production was occurring in a country, so more factories working would increase carbon emission levels.(Holtz-Eakin, 1995, pp.;85;101).^[102]

Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995).^[83]:146,149 A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year.

Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population.^[98]:370 Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 106–107).^[100]

Land-use change

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use, 1970–2010.

Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.^[103] Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure "net" emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all GHG sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 92–93).^[100]

There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.^[104] Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 93).^[100] For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.

Greenhouse gas intensity

Greenhouse gas intensity in the year 2000, including land-use change.

Carbon intensity of GDP (using PPP) for different regions, 1982–2011.

Carbon intensity of GDP (using MER) for different regions, 1982–2011.

Greenhouse gas intensity is a ratio between greenhouse gas emissions and another metric, e.g., gross domestic product (GDP) or energy use. The terms "carbon intensity" and "emissions intensity" are also sometimes used.^[105] GHG intensities may be calculated using market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP) (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 96).^[100] Calculations based on MER show large differences in intensities between developed and developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences.

Cumulative and historical emissions

Cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between the years 1850–2005 grouped into low-income, middle-income, high-income, the EU-15, and the OECD countries.

Cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between the years 1850–2005 for individual countries.

Map of cumulative per capita anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ emissions by country. Cumulative emissions include land use change, and are measured between the years 1950 and 2000.

Regional trends in annual CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion between 1971 and 2009.

Regional trends in annual per capita CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion between 1971 and 2009.

Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming,^[106] and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change.^[107]:15

Top-5 historic CO₂ contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)

Region	Industrial CO2	Total CO2
OECD North America	33.2	29.7
OECD Europe	26.1	16.6
Former USSR	14.1	12.5
China	5.5	6.0
Eastern Europe	5.5	4.8

The table above to the left is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94).^[100] Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO₂ emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO₂ emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO₂ emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO₂ emissions. The estimate of total CO₂ emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94)^[100] calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countries and developing countries was estimated at more than 10 to 1.

Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 93–94).^[100] The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by how carbon sinks are allocated between regions and the dynamics of the climate system.

Non-OECD countries accounted for 42% of cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between 1890–2007.^{[108]:179–180} Over this time period, the US accounted for 28% of emissions; the EU, 23%; Russia, 11%; China, 9%; other OECD countries, 5%; Japan, 4%; India, 3%; and the rest of the world, 18%.^{[108]:179–180}

Changes since a particular base year

Between 1970–2004, global growth in annual CO₂ emissions was driven by North America, Asia, and the Middle East.^[109] The sharp acceleration in CO₂ emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. 

China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported.^[81] In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N
2O by 0.25% y⁻¹.
Using different base years for measuring emissions has an effect on estimates of national contributions to global warming.^{[107]:17–18[110]} This can be calculated by dividing a country's highest contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year, by that country's minimum contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year. Choosing between different base years of 1750, 1900, 1950, and 1990 has a significant effect for most countries.^{[107]:17–18} Within the G8 group of countries, it is most significant for the UK, France and Germany. These countries have a long history of CO₂ emissions (see the section on Cumulative and historical emissions).

Annual emissions[edit]

Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000 including land-use change.

Annual per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.^[83]:144 Due to China's fast economic development, its annual per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e., the developed countries excluding the USA).^[111] Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia (which apart from the oil rich Persian Gulf states, now has the highest percapita emission rate in the world). On the other hand, annual per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the USA are gradually decreasing over time.^[111] Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries.^[112]
Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's annual emissions in 2008, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.^[111]
The GHG footprint, or greenhouse gas footprint, refers to the amount of GHG that are emitted during the creation of products or services. It is more comprehensive than the commonly used carbon footprint, which measures only carbon dioxide, one of many greenhouse gases.

Top emitter countries[edit]

The top 40 countries emitting all greenhouse gases, showing both that derived from all sources including land clearance and forestry and also the CO2 component excluding those sources. Per capita figures are included. Data taken from World Resources Institute, Washington. Note that Indonesia and Brazil show very much higher than on graphs simply showing fossil fuel use.

See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions, List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita, List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions and List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita

Annual[edit]

In 2009, the annual top ten emitting countries accounted for about two-thirds of the world's annual energy-related CO₂ emissions.^[113]

Top-10 annual energy-related CO₂ emitters for the year 2009^{[citation needed]}

Country	% of global total annual emissions	Tonnes of GHG per capita
People's Rep. of China	23.6	5.13
United States	17.9	16.9
India	5.5	1.37
Russian Federation	5.3	10.8
Japan	3.8	8.6
Germany	2.6	9.2
Islamic Rep. of Iran	1.8	7.3
Canada	1.8	15.4
Korea	1.8	10.6
United Kingdom	1.6	7.5

Cumulative[edit]

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Top-10 cumulative energy-related CO₂ emitters between 1850–2008^{[citation needed]}

Country	% of world total	Metric tonnes CO2 per person
United States	28.5	1,132.7
China	9.36	85.4
Russian Federation	7.95	677.2
Germany	6.78	998.9
United Kingdom	5.73	1,127.8
Japan	3.88	367
France	2.73	514.9
India	2.52	26.7
Canada	2.17	789.2
Ukraine	2.13	556.4

Embedded emissions

One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as "embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production, rather than consumption.^[114] For example, in the main international treaty on climate change (the UNFCCC), countries report on emissions produced within their borders, e.g., the emissions produced from burning fossil fuels.^{[108]:179[115]:1} Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing country, rather than the exporting, country.

Davis and Caldeira (2010)^[115]:4 found that a substantial proportion of CO₂ emissions are traded
internationally. The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO₂ per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US (22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6).^[115]:5 Carbon Trust research revealed that approximately 25% of all CO₂ emissions from human activities 'flow' (i.e. are imported or exported) from one country to another. Major developed economies were found to be typically net importers of embodied carbon emissions — with UK consumption emissions 34% higher than production emissions, and Germany (29%), Japan (19%) and the USA (13%) also significant net importers of embodied emissions.^[116]

Effect of policy

Governments have taken action to reduce GHG emissions (climate change mitigation). Assessments of policy effectiveness have included work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,^[117] International Energy Agency,^[118][119] and United Nations Environment Programme.^[120] Policies implemented by governments have included^{[121][122][123]} national and regional targets to reduce emissions, promoting energy efficiency, and support for renewable energy such as Solar energy as an effective use of renewable energy because solar uses energy from the sun and does not release pollutants into the air.
Countries and regions listed in Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (i.e., the OECD and former planned economies of the Soviet Union) are required to submit periodic assessments to the UNFCCC of actions they are taking to address climate change.^[123]:3 Analysis by the UNFCCC (2011)^[123]:8 suggested that policies and measures undertaken by Annex I Parties may have produced emission savings of 1.5 thousand Tg CO₂-eq in the year 2010, with most savings made in the energy sector. The projected emissions saving of 1.5 thousand Tg CO₂-eq is measured against a hypothetical "baseline" of Annex I emissions, i.e., projected Annex I emissions in the absence of policies and measures. The total projected Annex I saving of 1.5 thousand CO₂-eq does not include emissions savings in seven of the Annex I Parties.^[123]:8

Projections

A wide range of projections of future GHG emissions have been produced.^[124] Rogner et al. (2007)^[125] assessed the scientific literature on GHG projections. Rogner et al. (2007)^[94] concluded that unless energy policies changed substantially, the world would continue to depend on fossil fuels until 2025–2030. Projections suggest that more than 80% of the world's energy will come from fossil fuels. This conclusion was based on "much evidence" and "high agreement" in the literature.^[94] Projected annual energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2030 were 40–110% higher than in 2000, with two-thirds of the increase originating in developing countries.^[94] Projected annual per capita emissions in developed country regions remained substantially lower (2.8–5.1 tonnes CO₂) than those in developed country regions (9.6–15.1 tonnes CO₂).^[126] Projections consistently showed increase in annual world GHG emissions (the "Kyoto" gases,^[127] measured in CO₂-equivalent) of 25–90% by 2030, compared to 2000.^[94]

Relative CO₂ emission from various fuels

One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces 2.32 kg (about 1300 liters or 1.3 cubic meters) of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. One US gallon produces 19.4 lb (1,291.5 gallons or 172.65 cubic feet)^{[128][129][130]}

Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels^[131]

Fuel name	CO2 emitted (lbs/106 Btu)	CO2 emitted (g/MJ)
Natural gas	117	50.30
Liquefied petroleum gas	139	59.76
Propane	139	59.76
Aviation gasoline	153	65.78
Automobile gasoline	156	67.07
Kerosene	159	68.36
Fuel oil	161	69.22
Tires/tire derived fuel	189	81.26
Wood and wood waste	195	83.83
Coal (bituminous)	205	88.13
Coal (sub-bituminous)	213	91.57
Coal (lignite)	215	92.43
Petroleum coke	225	96.73
Tar-sand Bitumen	[citation needed]	[citation needed]
Coal (anthracite)	227	97.59

Life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of energy sources

A literature review of numerous energy sources CO₂ emissions by the IPCC in 2011, found that, the CO₂ emission value that fell within the 50th percentile of all total life cycle emissions studies conducted was as follows.^[132]

 

Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by electricity source.

Technology	Description	50th percentile (g CO2/kWhe)
Hydroelectric	reservoir	4
Ocean Energy	wave and tidal	8
Wind	onshore	12
Nuclear	various generation II reactor types	16
Biomass	various	18
Solar thermal	parabolic trough	22
Geothermal	hot dry rock	45
Solar PV	Polycrystalline silicon	46
Natural gas	various combined cycle turbines without scrubbing	469
Coal	various generator types without scrubbing	1001

Removal from the atmosphere ("sinks")

Natural processes

Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of:

• a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere).
• a chemical reaction within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally occurring hydroxyl radical, OH· and degraded to CO₂ and water vapor (CO₂ from the oxidation of methane is not included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
• a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans.
• a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the case for CO₂, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification).
• a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl· and F· as free radicals in the stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction in the atmosphere).

Negative emissions

A number of technologies remove greenhouse gases emissions from the atmosphere. Most widely analysed are those that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage^{[133][134][135]} and carbon dioxide air capture,^[135] or to the soil as in the case with biochar.^[135] The IPCC has pointed out that many long-term climate scenario models require large scale manmade negative emissions to avoid serious climate change.^[136]

History of scientific research

In the late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N
2 and O
2 do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation"), while water (both as true vapor and condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds) and CO₂ and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. In the early 20th century researchers realized that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere made Earth's overall temperature higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system,^[137] with consequences for the environment and for human health.

Younger Dryas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Three temperature proxies showing the Younger Dryas event at around 12,000 calendar years BP. The NGRIP sequence (red – mislabelled as GRIP) uses the water molecule isotopic composition – δ18O. The Vostok and EPICA Dome C series show delta-deuterium. All 3 proxies use the same vertical axis.

The Younger Dryas, from c. 12,900 to c. 11,700 calendar years ago (BP), was a sharp decline in temperature over most of the northern hemisphere, at the end of the Pleistocene epoch, immediately preceding the current warmer Holocene. It was the most recent and longest of several interruptions to the gradual warming of the Earth's climate since the severe Last Glacial Maximum, c. 27,000 to 24,000 calendar years BP. The change was relatively sudden, taking place in decades, and resulted in a decline of 2 to 6 degrees Celsius, advances of glaciers and drier conditions, over much of the temperate northern hemisphere. It is thought to have been caused by a decline in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which transports warm water from the equator towards the North Pole, and which in turn is thought to have been caused by an influx of fresh cold water from North America into the Atlantic. The Younger Dryas was a period of climatic change, but the effects were complex and variable. In the southern hemisphere, and some areas of the north such as the south-eastern United States, there was a slight warming.^[1]

The presence of a distinct cold period at the end of the Late Glacial interval has been known for a long time. Paleobotanical and lithostratigraphic studies of Swedish and Danish bog and lake sites, e.g. the Allerød clay pit in Denmark, first recognized and described the Younger Dryas.^[2][3][4] The Younger Dryas is named after an indicator genus, the alpine-tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala. Leaves of Dryas octopetala are occasionally abundant in the Late Glacial, often minerogenic-rich, lake sediments of Scandinavian lakes.

The Younger Dryas is the youngest and longest of three stadials that resulted from typically abrupt climatic changes that took place over the last 16,000 calendar years.^[5] Within the Byltt-Sernander classification of north European climatic phases, the prefix ‘Younger’ refers to the recognition that this original ‘Dryas’ period was preceded by a warmer stage, the Allerød oscillation, which in turn was preceded by the Older Dryas around 14,000 calendar years BP. This is not securely dated, and estimates vary by 400 years, but it is generally accepted that it lasted around 200 years. In northern Scotland the glaciers were thicker and more extensive than during the Younger Dryas.^[6] The Older Dryas, in turn, is preceded by another warmer stage, the Bølling oscillation that separates it from a third and even older stadial. This stadial is often, but not always, known as the Oldest Dryas. The Oldest Dryas, occurred approximately 1,770 calendar years before the Younger Dryas and lasted about 400 calendar years. According to the GISP2 ice core from Greenland, the Oldest Dryas occurred between about 15,070 and 14,670 calendar years BP.^[7]

In Ireland, the Younger Dryas has also been known as the Nahanagan Stadial, while in the United Kingdom it has been called the Loch Lomond Stadial.^[8][9] In the Greenland Summit ice core chronology, the Younger Dryas corresponds to Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1). The preceding Allerød warm period (interstadial) is subdivided into three events: Greenland Interstadial-1c to 1a (GI-1c to GI-1a).^[10]

Abrupt climate change

Since 1916 and the onset and later refinement of pollen analytical techniques and a steadily growing number of pollen diagrams, palynologists have concluded that the Younger Dryas represented a distinct period of vegetational change in large parts of Europe during which warmer climate vegetation was replaced by generally cold climate – glacial plant succession that often contained Dryas octopetala. This drastic change in vegetation is typically interpreted to be an effect of a sudden decrease in (annual) temperature, unfavorable for the previously rapidly northward-spreading forest vegetation. This cooling not only favored the expansion of cold-tolerant, light-demanding plants and associated steppe fauna, it also led to regional glacial advances in Scandinavia and a lowering of the regional equilibrium line altitude (snow line).^[2]

The change to glacial conditions at the onset of the younger Dryas in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900–11,500 BP in calendar years has been argued to have been quite abrupt.^[11] in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding Older Dryas interstadial. It has been inferred that its end occurred over a period of a decade or so,^[12] but the onset may have been faster.^[13] Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice core GISP2 indicate that the summit of Greenland was approximately 15 °C (27 °F) colder during the Younger Dryas^[12] than today. In the UK, coleopteran (beetle) fossil evidence suggests that mean annual temperature dropped to −5 °C (23 °F),^[14] and periglacial conditions prevailed in lowland areas, while icefields and glaciers formed in upland areas.^[15] Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since its end.^[11]

In addition to the Younger, Older, and Oldest dryases, a century-long period of colder climate similar to the Younger Dryas in abruptness has occurred within both the Bølling oscillation and the Allerød oscillation interstadials. The cold period, which occurred the Bølling oscillation, is known as the intra-Bølling cold period (ICBP) and the cold period, which occurred in the Allerød oscillation, is known as the intra-Allerød cold period (ICAP ). Both of these cold periods are comparable in duration and intensity with the Older Dyras and began and ended quite abruptly. These cold periods have been recognized in sequence and relative magnitude in paleoclimatic records from Greenland ice cores, European lacustrine sediments, Atlantic Ocean sediments, and Cariaco Basin, Venezuela.^[16]

Examples of older Younger Dryas-like events have been reported from the ends, which are called terminations,^[17] of older glacial periods. Temperature-sensitive lipids, long chain alkenones, found in lake and marine sediments are well-regarded as a powerful paleothermometer for the quantitative reconstruction of past continental climates.^[18] The application of alkenone paleothermometers to high-resolution paleotemperature reconstructions of older glacial terminations have found that very similar Younger Dryas-like paleoclimatic oscillations occurred during Terminations II and IV. If so, then the Younger Dryas is not the unique paleoclimatic event, in terms of size, extent, and rapidity, as it has been often regarded to be.^[18][19] Furthermore, paleoclimatologists and Quaternary geologists reported finding what they characterized as well-expressed Younger Dryas events in the Chinese (δ18O records of Termination III in stalagmites from high-altitude caves in Shennongjia area, Hubei Province, China.^[20] Various paleoclimatic records from ice cores, deep sea sediments, speleothems, continental paleobotanical data, and loesses show similar abrupt climate events, which are consistent with Younger Dryas events, during the terminations of the last four glacial periods. They argue that Younger Dryas events might be an intrinsic feature of deglaciations that occur at the end of glacial periods.^[20][21][22]

Timing of the Younger Dryas

During the early 1990s, it became obvious with an increasing number of high-resolution radiocarbon dates associated with the Younger Dryas that this distinct paleoclimatic period is very difficult to date in detail using radiocarbon dating. Radiocarbon dating of samples on either side of the Allerød–Younger Dryas Boundary yielded dates that exhibited a very rapid age shift. Typically, they jump from 11,000 radiocarbon years BP to 10,700–10,600 radiocarbon years BP at the boundary. The 11,000 radiocarbon years BP dates clearly pre-dates the boundary. The first (oldest) overlying Younger Dryas radiocarbon samples often yielded ages of 10,700–10,600 radiocarbon years BP without any evidence of either an intervening unconformity or other evidence of erosion or nondeposition. Radiocarbon dates of terrestrial macrofossils and tree rings in Europe show that this decline in apparent radiocarbon age occurred over about a 50-year period. For the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition, high-resolution dating of identified plant macrofossils yielded dates that fall within so-called radiocarbon plateau, i.e., a 200–250 year long period when radiocarbon dating yields dates that are all roughly the same. As a result, the end of Younger Dryas can at best can only be estimated to have occurred sometime about 10,000–10,050 radiocarbon years BP.^[2][23]

The analyses of stable isotopes from Greenland ice cores provide a more precise estimate for the onset and end of the Younger Dryas period. The analysis of Greenland Summit ice cores as a part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project-2 (GISP-2) and Greenland Icecore Project (GRIP) estimated that the Younger Dryas started about 12,800 ice (calendar) years BP. Depending on the specific ice core analysis consulted, the Younger Dryas is estimated to have lasted 1,150–1,300 years.^[2][23] Measurements of oxygen isotopes from the GISP2 ice core suggest the ending of the Younger Dryas took place over just 40–50 years in three discrete steps, each lasting five years. Other proxy data, such as dust concentration, and snow accumulation, suggest an even more rapid transition, requiring about a 7 °C (13 °F) warming in just a few years.^{[11][12][24][25]} Total warming in Greenland was 10 ± 4 °C (18 ± 7 °F).^[26]

The end of the Younger Dryas has been dated to around 11.55 ka BP, occurring at 10 ka bp (uncalibrated radiocarbon year), a "radiocarbon plateau" by a variety of methods, with mostly consistent results:

11.50 ± 0.05	ka BP:	GRIP ice core, Greenland[27]
11.53 + 0.04 − 0.06	ka BP:	Krakenes Lake, western Norway[28]
11.57	ka BP:	Cariaco Basin core, Venezuela[29]
11.57	ka BP:	German oak/pine dendrochronology[30]
11.64 ± 0.28	ka BP:	GISP2 ice core, Greenland[24]

Although the start of the Younger Dryas is regarded to be synchronous across the North Atlantic region, recent research concluded that the start of the Younger Dryas might be time-trangressive even within this region. After an examination of laminated varve sequences, Muschitiello and Wohlfarth found that the environmental changes that define the beginning of the Younger Dryas are diachronous in their time of occurrence according to latitude. According to these changes, the Younger Dryas occurred as early as c. 12,900–13,100 calendar years ago along latitude 56–54°N. Further north, they found that these changes occurred at c. 12,600–12,750 calendar years ago.^[31]

According to the analyses of varved sediments from Lake Suigetsu, Japan and other paleonenvironmental records from Asia, a substantial delay occurred in onset and end of the Younger Dryas between Asia and the North Atlantic. For example, paleoenvironmental analysis of sediment cores from Lake Suigetsu in Japan found the Younger Dryas temperature decline of 2–4 °C between 12,300 and 11,250 varve (calendar) years BP instead of about 12,900 calendar years BP in the North Atlantic region. In contrast, the abrupt shift in the radiocarbon signal from apparent radiocarbon dates of 11,000 radiocarbon years to radiocarbon dates of 10,700–10,600 radiocarbon years BP in terrestrial macrofossils and tree rings in Europe over a fifty-year period occurred at the same time in the varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu. However, this same shift in the radiocarbon signal predates the start of Younger Dryas at Lake Suigetsu by a few hundred years. Interpretations of data from Chinese also confirms the observation that the Younger Dryas dry and cold event in East Asia lags the North Atlantic Younger Dryas cooling with at least 200–300 years. Although, the interpretation of the data is more murky and ambiguous, it is likely that end of the Younger Dryas and start of Holocene warming was similarly delayed in time in Japan, and in other parts of East Asia.^[32]

Similarly, an analysis of a stalagmite growing from a cave in Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Palawan, Philippines, found that the onset of the Younger Dryas was also delayed in that region. Proxy data recorded in the stalagmite indicated that it took more than 550 calendar years for Younger Dryas drought conditions to reach their full extent in the region, and about 450 calendar years to return to pre-Younger Dryas levels after it ended.^[33]

Global effects

In western Europe and Greenland, the Younger Dryas is a well-defined synchronous cool period.^[34] But cooling in the tropical North Atlantic may have preceded this by a few hundred years; South America shows a less well defined initiation but a sharp termination. The Antarctic Cold Reversal appears to have started a thousand years before the Younger Dryas, and has no clearly defined start or end; Peter Huybers has argued that there is fair confidence in the absence of the Younger Dryas in Antarctica, New Zealand and parts of Oceania.^[35] Timing of the tropical counterpart to the Younger Dryas – the Deglaciation Climate Reversal (DCR) – is difficult to establish as low latitude ice core records generally lack independent dating over this interval. An example of this is the Sajama ice core (Bolivia), for which the timing of the DCR has been pinned to that of the GISP2 ice core record (central Greenland). Climatic change in the central Andes during the DCR, however, was significant and characterized by a shift to much wetter, and likely colder, conditions.^[36] The magnitude and abruptness of these changes would suggest that low latitude climate did not respond passively during the YD/DCR.

Effects in North America

In western North America it is likely that the effects of the Younger Dryas were less intense than in Europe; however, evidence of glacial re-advance^[37] indicates Younger Dryas cooling occurred in the Pacific Northwest.

Other effects

Other features include:

• Replacement of forest in Scandinavia with glacial tundra (which is the habitat of the plant Dryas octopetala)
• Glaciation or increased snow in mountain ranges around the world
• Formation of solifluction layers and loess deposits in Northern Europe
• More dust in the atmosphere, originating from deserts in Asia
• Drought in the Levant, perhaps motivating the Natufian culture to develop agriculture
• The Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal in the Southern Hemisphere ended at the same time
• Decline of the Clovis Culture and extinction of animal species in North America

Effects on agriculture

The Younger Dryas is often linked to the adoption of agriculture in the Levant.^[38][39] It is argued that the cold and dry Younger Dryas lowered the carrying capacity of the area and forced the sedentary Early Natufian population into a more mobile subsistence pattern. Further climatic deterioration is thought to have brought about cereal cultivation. While there exists relative consensus regarding the role of the Younger Dryas in the changing subsistence patterns during the Natufian, its connection to the beginning of agriculture at the end of the period is still being debated.^[40][41]

Sea level

Based upon solid geological evidence, consisting largely of the analysis of numerous deep cores from coral reefs, variations in rates of sea level rise have been reconstructed for the postglacial period. For the early part of deglacial sea level rise, three major periods of accelerated sea level rise, called meltwater pulses, occurred. They are commonly called meltwater pulse 1A0 between 19,000 and 19,500 calendar years ago; meltwater pulse 1A between circa 14,600 and 14,300 calendar years ago; and meltwater pulse 1B between circa 11,400 and 11,100 calendar years ago. The Younger Dryas occurred after meltwater pulse 1A, which was a 13.5 m rise over about 290 years centered at about 14,200 calendar years ago and before meltwater pulse 1B, which was a 7.5 m rise over about 160 years centered at about 11,000 calendar years ago.^[42][43][44] Between meltwater pulse 1A and meltwater pulse 1B, the Younger Dryas was an interval of a significantly reduced rate of sea level rise relative to the periods of time before and after it. For example, the analysis of cores from Tahiti coral reefs found that sea level rose at a rate of about 7.5 ± 1.1  mm/yr during the Younger Dryas. Just after the end of the Younger Dryas, the rate of sea level rise accelerated to 17.4 ± 0.4  mm/yr and just before its start, it was 12.1 ± 0.6  mm/yr. This reduction in the rate of sea level rise directly reflected a substantial reduction of the global inflow of meltwater into the world's oceans during the Younger Dryas.^[42][45]

Possible evidence of short-term sea level changes have been reported for the beginning of the Younger Dryas. First, the plotting of data by Bard and others suggested a small step, less than 6 m, in sea level near the onset of the Younger Dryas. There is also possibly a corresponding change in the rate of change of sea level rise that they saw in the data from both Barbados and Tahiti. Given that this change is …within the overall uncertainty of the approach…, it was concluded that a relatively smooth sea-level rise, with no significant accelerations occurred at this time.^[45] Finally, research by Lohe and others in western Norway reported a sea-level low-stand at 13,640 calendar years ago and a subsequent Younger Dryas transgression starting at 13,080 calendar years ago. They concluded that the timing of the Allerød low-stand and the subsequent transgression were the result of increased regional loading of the crust and geoid changes caused by an expanding ice sheet that started growing and advancing in early Allerød about 13,600 calendar years ago and well before the start of the Younger Dryas.^[46]

Causes

The prevailing theory is that the Younger Dryas was caused by significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic "Conveyor", which circulates warm tropical waters northward, in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America. Geological evidence for such an event is thus far lacking.^[47] The global climate would then have become locked into the new state until freezing removed the fresh water "lid" from the north Atlantic Ocean. An alternative theory suggests instead that the jet stream shifted northward in response to the changing topographic forcing of the melting North American ice sheet, bringing more rain to the North Atlantic which freshened the ocean surface enough to slow the thermohaline circulation.^[48] There is also some evidence that a solar flare may have been responsible for the megafaunal extinction, though it cannot explain the apparent variability in the extinction across all continents.^[49]

Impact hypothesis

A hypothesized Younger Dryas impact event, presumed to have occurred in North America around 12,900 calendar years ago, has been proposed as the mechanism to have initiated the Younger Dryas cooling. Amongst other things findings of melt-glass material in sediments in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Syria have been reported. These researchers argue that this material, which dates back nearly 13,000 calendar years ago, was formed at temperatures of 1,700 to 2,200 °C (3,100 to 4,000 °F) as the result of a bolide impact. They argue that these findings support the controversial Younger Dryas Boundary (YDB) hypothesis, that the bolide impact occurred at the onset of the Younger Dryas.^[50] The hypothesis has been questioned by research that stated that most of the conclusions cannot be repeated by other scientists, misinterpretation of data, and the lack of confirmatory evidence.^[51][52][53] After a review of the sediments that are found at the sites, new research found that sediments claimed, by the hypothesis proponents, to be deposits resulting from a bolide impact were, in fact, dated from much later or much earlier time periods than the proposed date of the cosmic impact. The researchers examined 29 sites that are commonly referenced to support the impact theory to determine if they can be geologically dated to around 13,000 calendar years ago. Crucially, only 3 of the sites actually date from that time.^[54]
In a study in the Journal of Geology (August 2014), Prof. Kennett (et al.) looked at the distribution of nanodiamonds produced during extraterrestrial collisions; 50 million square kilometers of Northern Hemisphere at YDB was found to have these nanodiamonds. Only two layers exist showing such nanodiamonds: the YDB 12,800 calendar years ago and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary 65 million years ago, which is also marked by the mass extinctions.^[55]

“The evidence we present settles the debate about the existence of abundant YDB nanodiamonds,” Kennett said. “Our hypothesis challenges some existing paradigms within several disciplines, including impact dynamics, archaeology, paleontology, paleoceanography, and paleoclimatology, all affected by this relatively recent cosmic impact.”

Laacher See eruption hypothesis

Finally, it has been hypothesized that the eruption of Laacher See might have initiated the Younger Dryas stadial. Laacher See is a maar lake, a lake that lies within a broad, low-relief volcanic crater, that is about 2 km (1.2 mi) in diameter. It lies in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, about 24 km (15 mi) northwest of Koblenz and 37 km (23 mi) south of Bonn. This maar lake lies within the Eifel mountain range, and is part of the East Eifel volcanic field within the larger Vulkaneifel. The East Eifel volcanic field has been active since about 400-11 calendar years ago.^[56][57] The maar, which this lake occupies is the result of phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions as well as caldera collapse processes. Phreato-plinian eruption sent plumes of phonolitic to mafic phonolitic tephra over the region and pyroclastic flows and surges over the local countryside in predominantly in northeastern and southern directions. This eruption was of sufficient size, VEI 6, with over 10 km³ (2.4 cu mi) tephra ejected, to have caused significant temperature changes in the northern hemisphere.^[58][59]

However, there are problems with the hypothesis that the eruption of Laacher see volcano initiated the Younger Dryas. First, detailed dating of varved and other lake deposits in other maar lakes determined an age of at least 11,230 ± 40 radiocarbon years BP for the Laacher See eruption. This radiocarbon age would make the Laacher see eruption about 200 radiocarbon years older than the start of the Younger Dryas.^[60] More recently, the radiocarbon dating of trees killed by the Laacher See eruption and an examination of Swiss dendrochronology and volcanic sulphur in the Greenland ice cores concluded that the Laacher See eruption predated the onset of the Younger Dryas by some 203 calendar years on average.^[61] Second, Late-Glacial sediment cores from Switzerland demonstrate that a significant period of time separate the Laacher See eruption and the start of the Younger Dryas.^[60][62][63] Finally, Even if the Laacher See eruption was contemporaneous with the start of the Younger Dryas, as big as it was, the size of the Laacher see eruption was likely not large enough to initiate a new stadial. The paleoclimatic proxies found in Greenland ice cores show only a short-term climatic deterioration associated with the Laacher See eruption.^[61][64]

Cultural references

The failure of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is used to explain rapid climate change in some science fiction writings as early as Stanley G. Weinbaum's 1937 short story "Shifting Seas" where the author described the freezing of Europe after the Gulf Stream was disrupted, and more recently in Kim Stanley Robinson's novels, particularly Fifty Degrees Below. It also underpinned the 1999 book, The Coming Global Superstorm. Likewise, the idea of rapid climate change caused by disruption of North Atlantic ocean currents creates the setting for 2004 apocalyptic science-fiction film The Day After Tomorrow. Similar sudden cooling events have featured in other novels, such as John Christopher's The World in Winter, though not always with the same explicit links to the Younger Dryas event as is the case of Robinson's work.