Intergenerational equity

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergenerational_equity 

 

Grandfather and grandchild

 

The U.S. National Debt is often cited as an example of intergenerational inequity, as future generations will have the responsibility of paying it off. The U.S. National Debt has grown substantially over the past several decades. Relative to total GDP, the debt burden has worsened in the past several years.

Intergenerational equity in economic, psychological, and sociological contexts, is the idea of fairness or justice between generations. The concept can be applied to fairness in dynamics between children, youth, adults, and seniors. It can also be applied to fairness between generations currently living and future generations.

Conversations about intergenerational equity occur across several fields. It is often discussed in public economics, especially with regard to transition economics, social policy, and government budget-making. Many cite the growing U.S. national debt as an example of intergenerational inequity, as future generations will shoulder the consequences. Intergenerational equity is also explored in environmental concerns, including sustainable development, and climate change. The continued depletion of natural resources that has occurred in the past century will likely be a significant burden for future generations. Intergenerational equity is also discussed with regard to standards of living, specifically on inequities in the living standards experienced by people of different ages and generations. Intergenerational equity issues also arise in the arenas of elderly care and social justice.

Public economics usage

History

Since the first recorded debt issuance in Sumaria in 1796 BC, one of the penalties for failure to repay a loan has been debt bondage. In some instances, this repayment of financial debt with labor included the debtor's children, essentially condemning the debtor family to perpetual slavery. About one millennium after written debt contracts were created, the concept of debt forgiveness appears in the Old Testament, called Jubilee (Leviticus 25), and in Greek law when Solon introduces Seisachtheia. Both of these historical examples of debt forgiveness involved freeing children from slavery caused by their parents' debt.

While slavery is illegal in all countries today, North Korea has a policy called, "Three Generations of Punishment" which has been documented by Shin Dong-hyuk and used as an example of punishing children for parents' mistakes. Stanley Druckenmiller and Geoffrey Canada have applied this concept (calling it "Generational Theft") to the large increase in government debt being left by the Baby Boomers to their children.

Investment management

In the context of institutional investment management, intergenerational equity is the principle that an endowed institution's spending rate must not exceed its after-inflation rate of compound return, so that investment gains are spent equally on current and future constituents of the endowed assets. This concept was originally set out in 1974 by economist James Tobin, who wrote that "The trustees of endowed institutions are the guardians of the future against the claims of the present. Their task in managing the endowment is to preserve equity among generations."

In an economical context intergenerational equity refers to the relationship that a particular family has with resources. An example is the forest-dwelling civilians in Papua New Guinea, who for generations have lived in a certain part of the forest which thus becomes their land. The adult population sell the trees for palm oil to make money. If they cannot make a sustainable development on managing their resources, their next or future generations will lose this resource.

U.S. national debt

See also: National debt of the United States

One debate about the national debt relates to intergenerational equity. If one generation is receiving the benefit of government programs or employment that is enabled by deficit spending and debt accumulation, to what extent does the resulting higher debt impose risks and costs on future generations? There are several factors to consider:

• For every dollar of debt held by the public, there is a government obligation (generally marketable Treasury securities) counted as an asset by investors. Future generations benefit to the extent these assets are passed on to them, which by definition must correspond to the level of debt passed on.
• As of 2010, approximately 72% of financial assets were held by the wealthiest 5% of the population. This presents a wealth and income distribution question, as only a fraction of the people in future generations will receive principal or interest from investments related to the debt incurred today.
• To the extent the U.S. debt is owed to foreign investors (approximately half the "debt held by the public" during 2012), principal and interest are not directly received by U.S. heirs.
• Higher debt levels imply higher interest payments, which create costs for future taxpayers (e.g., higher taxes, lower government benefits, higher inflation, or increased risk of fiscal crisis).
• To the extent that borrowed funds are invested today to improve the long-term productivity of the economy and its workers, such as via useful infrastructure projects, future generations may benefit.
• For every dollar of intragovernmental debt, there is an obligation to specific program recipients, generally non-marketable securities such as those held in the Social Security Trust Fund. Adjustments that reduce future deficits in these programs may also apply costs to future generations, via higher taxes or lower program spending.

Economist Paul Krugman wrote in March 2013 that by neglecting public investment and failing to create jobs, we are doing far more harm to future generations than merely passing along debt: "Fiscal policy is, indeed, a moral issue, and we should be ashamed of what we’re doing to the next generation's economic prospects. But our sin involves investing too little, not borrowing too much." Young workers face high unemployment and studies have shown their income may lag throughout their careers as a result. Teacher jobs have been cut, which could affect the quality of education and competitiveness of younger Americans.

Australian politician Christine Milne made similar statements in the lead-up to the 2014 Carbon Price Repeal Bill, naming the Liberal National Party (elected to parliament in 2013) and inherently its ministers, as intergenerational thieves; her statement was based on the party's attempts to roll back progressive carbon tax policy and the impact this would have on the intergenerational equity of future generations.

U.S. Social Security

See also: Social Security (United States)

The U.S. Social Security system has provided a greater net benefit to those who reached retirement closest to the first implementation of the system. The system is unfunded, meaning the elderly who retired right after the implementation of the system did not pay any taxes into the social security system, but reaped the benefits. Professor Michael Doran estimates that cohorts born previous to 1938 will receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes, while the reverse is true to cohorts born after. Also, that the long-term insolvency of Social Security will likely lead to further intergenerational transfers. However, Broad concedes that other benefits have been introduced into U.S. society via the welfare system, like Medicare and government-financed medical research, that benefit current and future elderly cohorts.

Environmental usage

Further information: Climate justice

 

Global warming is an example of intergenerational inequity, see climate justice

Intergenerational equity is often referred to in environmental contexts, as younger age cohorts will disproportionately experience the negative consequences of environmental damage. For instance, it is estimated that children born in 2020 (e.g. "Generation Alpha") will experience 2–7 as many extreme weather events over their lifetimes, particularly heat waves, compared to people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Moreover, on average, the elderly played "a leading role in driving up GHG emissions in the past decade and are on the way to becoming the largest contributor" due to factors such as demographic transition, low informed concern about climate change and high expenditures on carbon-intensive products like energy which is used i.a. for heating rooms and private transport.

Ethical perspectives on amelioration

Two perspectives have been proposed on what should be done to ameliorate environmental intergenerational equity: the "weak sustainability" perspective and the "strong sustainability" perspective. From the "weak" perspective, intergenerational equity would be achieved if losses to the environment that future generations face were offset by gains in economic progress (as measured by contemporary mechanisms/metrics). From the "strong" perspective, no amount of economic progress (or as measured by contemporary metrics) can justify leaving future generations with a degraded environment. According to Professor Sharon Beder, the "weak" perspective is undermined by a lack of knowledge of the future, as we do not know which intrinsically valuable resources will not be able to be replaced by technology. We also do not know to what extent environmental damage is irreversible. Further, more harm cannot be avoided to many species of plants and animals. Other scholars contest Beder's point of view. Professor Wilfred Beckerman insists that "strong sustainability" is "morally repugnant", particularly when it overrides other moral concerns about those alive today. Beckerman insists that the optimal choice for society is to prioritize the welfare of current generations – albeit, depending e.g. on lifespans, these are also affected by unsustainability – above future generations. He suggests placing a discount rate on outcomes for future generations when accounting for generational equity. Beckerman is extensively criticized by Brian Barry and Nicholas Vrousalis.

Climate-related lawsuit

See also: Climate change litigation and Right to a healthy environment

In September 2015, a group of youth environmental activists filed a lawsuit against the U.S. federal government for insufficiently protecting against climate change: Juliana v. United States. Their statement emphasized the disproportionate cost of climate-related damage younger generations would bear: “Youth Plaintiffs represent the youngest living generation, beneficiaries of the public trust. Youth Plaintiffs have a substantial, direct, and immediate interest in protecting the atmosphere, other vital natural resources, their quality of life, their property interests, and their liberties. They also have an interest in ensuring that the climate system remains stable enough to secure their constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property, rights that depend on a livable Future.” In November 2016, the case was allowed to go to trial after US District Court Judge Ann Aiken denied the federal government’s motion to dismiss the case. In her opinion and order, she said, "Exercising my ‘reasoned judgment,’ I have no doubt that the right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society." As of April 2017, the trial was put on hold with a stay. The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments on the stay in November of 2017 and a ruling is expected in February of 2018.

Standards of living usage

Discussions of intergenerational equity in standards of living reference differences between people of different ages or of different generations. Two perspectives on intergenerational equity in living standards have been distinguished by Rice, Temple, and McDonald. The first perspective – a "cross-sectional" perspective – focuses how living standards at a particular point in time vary between people of different ages. The relevant issue is the degree to which, at a particular point in time, people of different ages enjoy equal living standards. The second perspective – a "cohort" perspective – focuses on how living standards over a lifetime vary between people of different generations. For intergenerational equity, the relevant issue becomes the degree to which people of different generations enjoy equal living standards over their lifetimes. Three indicators of intergenerational equity in economic flows, such as income, have been proposed by d'Albis, Badji, El Mekkaoui, and Navaux. Their first indicator originates from a cross-sectional perspective and describes the relative situation of an age group (retirees) with respect to the situation of another age group (younger people). Their second indicator originates from a cohort perspective and compares the standards of living of successive generations at the same age. D'Albis, Badji, El Mekkaoui, and Navaux's third indicator is a combination of the two previous criteria and is both an inter-age indicator and an intergenerational indicator.

In Australia, notable equality has been achieved in living standards, as measured by consumption, among people between the ages of 20 and 75 years. Substantial inequalities exist, however, between different generations, with older generations experiencing lower living standards in real terms at particular ages than younger generations. One way to illustrate these inequalities is to look at how long different generations took to achieve a level of consumption of $30,000 per year (2009–10 Australian dollars). At one extreme, people born in 1935 achieved this level of consumption when they were roughly 50 years of age, on average. At the other extreme, Millennials born in 1995 had achieved this level of consumption by the time they were around 10 years of age.

Considerations such as this have led some scholars to argue that standards of living have tended to increase generation over generation in most countries, as development and technology have progressed. When taking this into account, younger generations may have inherent privileges over older generations, which may offset the redistribution of wealth towards older generations.

Elderly care usage

Some scholars consider the cultural decay of the norm of adult children caring for elderly parents to be an intergenerational equity issue. Older generation had to care for their parents, as well as their own children, while the younger generation must only care for their children. This is especially true in countries with weak social security systems. Professor Sang-Hyop Lee describes this phenomenon in South Korea, explaining that the current elderly have the highest poverty rate among any developed country. He notes that it is particularly frustrating because the elderly usually invest a lot in their children's education, and they now feel betrayed.

Other scholars express different opinions on which generation is disadvantaged by elderly care. Professor Steven Wisensale describes the burden on current working age adults in developed economies, who must care for more elderly parents and relatives for a longer period of time. This problem is exacerbated by the increasing involvement of women in the workforce, and by the dropping fertility rate, leaving the burden for caring for parents, as well as aunts, uncles, and grandparents, on fewer children.

Social justice usage

Conversations about intergenerational equity are also relevant to social justice arenas, where issues such as health care are equal in importance to youth rights and youth voice are pressing and urgent. There is a strong interest within the legal community towards the application of intergenerational equity in law.

Advocacy groups

Generation Squeeze is a Canadian not-for-profit organization that advocates for intergenerational equity.

Urushiol

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urushiol 

 

Urushiol

R = (CH2)14CH3 or R = (CH2)7CH=CH(CH2)5CH3 or R = (CH2)7CH=CHCH2CH=CH(CH2)2CH3 or R = (CH2)7CH=CHCH2CH=CHCH=CHCH3 or R = (CH2)7CH=CHCH2CH=CHCH2CH=CH2 and others

Urushiol /ʊˈruːʃi.ɒl/ is an oily mixture of organic compounds with allergenic properties found in plants of the family Anacardiaceae, especially Toxicodendron spp. (e.g., poison oak, Chinese lacquer tree, poison ivy, poison sumac), Comocladia ssp. (maidenplums) and also in parts of the mango tree as well as the fruit of the cashew tree.

In most individuals, urushiol causes an allergic skin rash on contact, known as urushiol-induced contact dermatitis.

The name urushiol is derived from the Japanese word for the lacquer tree, Toxicodendron vernicifluum (漆, urushi). The oxidation and polymerization of urushiol in the tree's sap in the presence of moisture allows it to form a hard lacquer, which is used to produce traditional Chinese, Korean and Japanese lacquerware.

History

Although urushiol-containing lacquers and their skin-irritating properties were well known in East Asia for several millennia, its first recorded Western texts were in 1624 by John Smith and he initially likened poison ivy to English Ivy. He did not classify it as a poison at first due to the speed with which its rash disappeared and Smith hypothesized that there may actually be medicinal uses for the plant. In the 18th and 19th centuries, many experiments were done in this area to determine whether or not this theory was true. Because that era's medicinal culture was dominated by plant-based treatments, physicians were hopeful that the strong effect this chemical produced on the body could be effective in some way. André-Ignace-Joseph Dufresnoy was one of the first to come up with a medicinal use for this chemical in 1780 when he boiled poison ivy to produce an infusion for internal use. This led to a distilled extract of poison ivy which he prescribed to many people suffering from skin problems and even paralysis. He claimed this treatment to have yielded several positive results.

For many years, poison ivy was thought to fall into the Rhus genus; however, in the 1900s, it was reclassified into a more appropriate genus, Toxicodendron, meaning poison tree. There were many documented cases of irritations and allergic reactions from the plant, and its propensity for medicinal use quickly dwindled. After this new categorization, scientists began attempts to determine what it was that rendered plants of this genus noxious, starting with a hypothesis of a volatile oil present in the plants. While this proved incorrect, Rikou Majima from Japan was able to determine that the chemical urushiol was the irritant. Further, he determined that the substance was a type of alkyl catechol, and due to its structure it was able to penetrate the skin and survive on surfaces for months to years. Urushiol's ability to polymerise into a hard glossy coating is the chemical basis for traditional lacquerware in many Asian countries. After urushiol comes in contact with oxygen, under certain conditions it become a black lacquer and has been named urushi lacquer.

Characteristics

Urushiol in its pure form is a pale-yellow liquid with a specific gravity of 0.968 and a boiling point of 200 °C (392 °F). It is soluble in diethyl ether, acetone, ethanol, carbon tetrachloride, and benzene.

Urushiol is a mixture of several closely related organic compounds. Each consists of a catechol substituted in the 3 position with a hydrocarbon chain that has 15 or 17 carbon atoms. The hydrocarbon group may be saturated or unsaturated. The exact composition of the mixture varies, depending on the plant source. Whereas western poison oak urushiol contains chiefly catechols with C₁₇ side-chains, poison ivy and poison sumac contain mostly catechols with C₁₅ sidechains.

The likelihood and severity of allergic reaction to urushiol is dependent on the degree of unsaturation of the hydrocarbon chain. Less than half of the general population experience a reaction with the saturated urushiol alone, but over 90% do so with urushiol that contains at least two degrees of unsaturation (double bonds). Longer side chains tend to produce a stronger reaction.

Urushiol is an oleoresin contained within the sap of poison ivy and related plants, and after injury to the plant, or late in the fall, the sap leaks to the surface of the plant, where under certain temperature and humidity conditions the urushiol becomes a blackish lacquer after being in contact with oxygen. Urushi lacquer is very stable. It is able to withstand disturbances from alkali, acid, and alcohol, while also being able to resist temperatures of over 300 °C. However, the lacquer can be degraded by UV rays from the sun and other sources.

Within the United States, urushiol-containing plants are distributed throughout. Poison ivy can be found in all states except California, Alaska, and Hawaii. Poison Oak can be found on the west coast or some states in the southeast, while poison sumac can be found only in the eastern half of the country.

These plants all have distinguishing features that will help in identification. Poison ivy always grows with three shiny, pointy leaves. Poison oak has a similar look, but with larger and more rounded leaves that are hairy and grow in groups of 3, 5, or 7. Poison sumac grows in groups of 7 to 13 leaves, but always in an odd number. The leaves are feather-shaped and shiny.

Allergic response and treatment

Before the urushiol has been absorbed by the skin, it can be removed with soap and water. Substantial amounts of urushiol may be absorbed within minutes. Once urushiol has penetrated the skin, attempting to remove it with water is ineffective. After being absorbed by the skin, it is recognized by the immune system's dendritic cells, otherwise called Langerhans cells. These cells then migrate to the lymph nodes, where they present the urushiol to T-lymphocytes and thus recruit them to the skin, and the T-lymphocytes cause pathology through the production of cytokines and cytotoxic damage to the skin. This causes the painful rash, blisters, and itching.

Once this response starts, only a few treatments, such as cortisone or prednisone, are effective. Medications that can reduce the irritation include antihistamines (diphenhydramine (Benadryl) or cetirizine (Zyrtec)). Other treatments include applying cold water or calamine lotion to soothe the pain and stop the itching.

Mechanism of action

Main article: Urushiol-induced contact dermatitis

To cause an allergic dermatitis reaction, the urushiol is first oxidized to create two double-bonded oxygens on the chemical. It then reacts with a protein nucleophile to trigger a reaction within the skin. Dermatitis is mediated by an induced immune response. Urushiol is too small a molecule to directly activate an immune response. Instead, it attaches to certain proteins of the skin, where it acts as a hapten, leading to a type IV hypersensitive reaction.

Hydrocortisone, the active ingredient in cortisone, works to alleviate this condition by stopping the release of chemicals that cause the dermatitis reaction. Hydrocortisone itself does not react with urushiol in any way.

Basic mechanism of Urushiol causing allergic dermatitis

Use as lacquer

A Chinese six-pointed tray, red lacquer over wood, from the Song Dynasty (960–1279), 12th–13th century, Metropolitan Museum of Art.

Urushiol-based lacquers differ from most others, being slow-drying, and set by oxidation and polymerization, rather than by evaporation alone. The active ingredient of the resin is urushiol, a mixture of various phenols suspended in water, plus a few proteins. In order for it to set properly it requires a humid and warm environment. The phenols oxidize and polymerize under the action of laccase enzymes, yielding a substrate that, upon proper evaporation of its water content, is hard. These lacquers produce very hard, durable finishes that are both beautiful and very resistant to damage by water, acid, alkali or abrasion. The resin is derived from trees indigenous to East Asia, like lacquer tree Toxicodendron vernicifluum, and wax tree Toxicodendron succedaneum. The fresh resin from the T. vernicifluum trees causes urushiol-induced contact dermatitis and great care is therefore required in its use. The Chinese treated the allergic reaction with crushed shellfish, which supposedly prevents lacquer from drying properly. Lacquer skills became very highly developed in Asia, and many highly decorated pieces were produced.

It has been confirmed that the lacquer tree has existed in Japan since 12,600 years ago in the incipient Jōmon period. This was confirmed by radioactive carbon dating of the lacquer tree found at the Torihama shell mound, and is the oldest lacquer tree in the world found as of 2011. Lacquer was used in Japan as early as 7000 BCE, during the Jōmon period. Evidence for the earliest lacquerware was discovered at the Kakinoshima "B" Excavation Site in Hokkaido. The ornaments woven with lacquered red thread were discovered in a pit grave dating from the first half of the Initial Jōmon period. Also, at Kakinoshima "A" Excavation Site, earthenware with a spout painted with vermilion lacquer, which was made 3200 years ago, was found almost completely intact.

During the Shang Dynasty (1600–1046 BC), the sophisticated techniques used in the lacquer process were first developed and it became a highly artistic craft, although various prehistoric lacquerwares have been unearthed in China dating back to the Neolithic period. The earliest extant Chinese lacquer object, a red wooden bowl, was unearthed at a Hemudu culture (5000–4500 BC) site in China. By the Han Dynasty (206 BC – 220 AD), many centres of lacquer production became firmly established. The knowledge of the Chinese methods of the lacquer process spread from China during the Han, Tang and Song dynasties. Eventually it was introduced to Korea and Japan.

Trade of lacquer objects travelled through various routes to the Middle East. Known applications of lacquer in China included coffins, music instruments, furniture, and various household items. Lacquer mixed with powdered cinnabar is used to produce the traditional red lacquerware from China.

A maki-e and mother-of-pearl inlay cabinet that was exported from Japan to Europe in the 16th century.

From the 16th century to the 17th century, lacquer was introduced to Europe on a large scale for the first time through trade with Japanese. Until the 19th century, lacquerware was one of Japan's major exports, and European royalty, aristocrats and religious people represented by Marie-Antoinette, Maria Theresa and The Society of Jesus collected Japanese lacquerware luxuriously decorated with maki-e. The terms related to lacquer such as "Japanning", "Urushiol" and "maque" which means lacquer in Mexican Spanish, are derived from Japanese.

The trees must be at least ten years old before cutting to bleed the resin. It sets by a process called "aqua-polymerization", absorbing oxygen to set; placing in a humid environment allows it to absorb more oxygen from the evaporation of the water.

Lacquer-yielding trees in Thailand, Vietnam, Burma and Taiwan, called Thitsi, are slightly different; they do not contain urushiol, but similar substances called laccol or thitsiol. The result is similar but softer than the Chinese or Japanese lacquer. Burmese lacquer sets slower, and is painted by craftsmen's hands without using brushes.

Raw lacquer can be "coloured" by the addition of small amounts of iron oxides, giving red or black depending on the oxide. There is some evidence that its use is even older than 8,000 years from archaeological digs in Japan and China. Later, pigments were added to make colours. It is used not only as a finish, but mixed with ground fired and unfired clays applied to a mould with layers of hemp cloth, it can produce objects without need for another core like wood. The process is called "kanshitsu" in Japan. In the lacquering of the Chinese musical instrument, the guqin, the lacquer is mixed with deer horn powder (or ceramic powder) to give it more strength so it can stand up to the fingering.

There are a number of forms of urushiol. They vary by the length of the R chain, which depends on the species of plant producing the urushiol. Urushiol can also vary in the degree of saturation in the carbon chain. Urushiol can be drawn as follows: , where:

R = (CH₂)₁₄CH₃ or
R = (CH₂)₇CH=CH(CH₂)₅CH₃ or
R = (CH₂)₇CH=CHCH₂CH=CH(CH₂)₂CH₃ or
R = (CH₂)₇CH=CHCH₂CH=CHCH=CHCH₃ or
R = (CH₂)₇CH=CHCH₂CH=CHCH₂CH=CH₂

Gallery

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  Armorial screen

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  A Chinese carved lacquer oval tray, Yuan Dynasty, ca. 13th century.

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  Ming Dynasty Chinese lacquerware container, dated 16th century.

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  Clothing box decorated with peony scrolls, Joseon Dynasty Korea, 17th century.

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  Inro in maki-e Lacquer, Edo period Japan, 18th century

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  Picnic Box with Design of the Scene from The Tale of Genji in Maki-e Lacquer, Edo or Meiji period Japan, 19th century

Types of lacquer

Lacquer mixed with water and turpentine, ready for applying to surface.

Types of lacquer vary from place to place but they can be divided into unprocessed and processed categories.

The basic unprocessed lacquer is called raw lacquer (生漆: ki-urushi in Japanese, shengqi in Chinese). This is directly from the tree itself with some impurities filtered out. Raw lacquer has a water content of around 25% and appears in a light brown colour. This comes in a standard grade made from Chinese lacquer, which is generally used for ground layers by mixing with a powder, and a high quality grade made from Japanese lacquer called kijomi-urushi (生正味漆) which is used for the last finishing layers.

The processed form (in which the lacquer is stirred continuously until much of the water content has evaporated) is called guangqi (光漆) in Chinese but comes under many different Japanese names depending on the variation, for example, kijiro-urushi (木地呂漆) is standard transparent lacquer sometimes used with pigments and roiro-urushi (黒呂色漆) is the same but pre-mixed with iron hydroxide to produce a black coloured lacquer. Nashiji-urushi (梨子地漆) is the transparent lacquer but mixed with gamboge to create a yellow-tinged lacquer and is especially used for the sprinkled-gold technique. These lacquers are generally used for the middle layers. Japanese lacquers of this type are generally used for the top layers and are prefixed by the word jo- (上) which means 'top (layer)'.

Processed lacquers can have oil added to them to make them glossy, for example, shuai-urushi (朱合漆) is mixed with linseed oil. Other specialist lacquers include ikkake-urushi (釦漆) which is thick and used mainly for applying gold or silver leaf.

State collapse

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_collapse

State collapse, breakdown, or downfall, is the complete failure of a mode of government within a sovereign state. Sometimes this brings about a failed state, as in Somalia and the final decade of Yugoslavia. More often, there is an immediate process of transition to a new administration, and basic services such as tax collection, defence, police, civil service, and courts are maintained throughout, as in South Africa following the end of the apartheid system.

State collapse may coincide with economic collapse. State collapse is not always synonymous with societal collapse, which often is a more prolonged process, as in the fall of the western Roman Empire.

Not all attempts at regime change succeed in bringing about state collapse. The 16th-century Babington plot to assassinate Queen Elizabeth I of England, the 19th-century Decembrist revolt in Russia, and the 20th-century Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba failed.

History of the concept

For Aristotle (384–322 BC), the inherent dangers of democracy were, first, that conflict between the aristocracy and the poor was inevitable; and second, that it would usher in "mischief and corruption". Both processes would lead to collapse unless independent controls and separation of powers were enforced. The ancient Greek philosopher Polybius (c.200 – c.118 BC) asserted that all nations follow a cycle: democracy, oligarchy, dictatorship, tyranny and collapse.

Islamic scholar Ibn Khaldun (1332 – 1406) also produced a general theory of state collapse. A "theological rationalist", he transformed the study of history into a "new science". In his eyes, dynasties repeatedly become "sedentary, senile, coercive, pompous, subservient to desire ... liable to divisions in the dynasty." Group feeling (asabiyyah, groupthink) disappears as the dynasty grows senile. Ibn Khaldun was fatalistic: "This senility is a chronic disease which cannot be cured because it is something natural". He observed that dynasties last for three generations before a new invading clique, "restless, alert and courageous", will cause the old to collapse in accordance with the principle in the Book of Exodus, chapter 20, verse four: God "visits the sins of the fathers onto their children, even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate Him". Professor Geoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups."

J.J. Saunders, claiming in 1966 that "our age, like his, is one of misery", regrets that Ibn Khaldun had "no predecessors and no successors ... not until four centuries after his death did he rise from his long sleep." In 1868 French Arabists translated the Muqaddimah; "the world was amazed, but he remained a lonely pioneer without followers ... the world has yet to prove that history can exist independently of the theological setting that gives it meaning".

The Japanese philosopher Hajime Tanabe points to the quasi-religious role of the state to mediate between mortal individuals and the eternal universe, so that states regularly collapse; like religious figures, they must undergo a process of death and resurrection. In his view this may account for the perennial popularity of states because they regularly demonstrate their ability to transcend death.

According to psychologist Erich Fromm it is possible for an entire nation, if they all share the same vices and errors, to become insane—a "folie a millions". Inhuman treatment by the rulers inevitably leads to collapse;

Despots and ruling cliques can succeed in dominating and exploiting their fellow man ... but their subjects react ... with apathy, impairment of intelligence, initiative and skills ... or they react by the accumulation of such hate and destructiveness as to bring about an end to themselves, their rulers and their system. ... if man lives under conditions contrary to his nature and to human growth and sanity, he cannot help reacting.'

Mark Blyth alleges that a democracy can also collapse "if voters don't get what they want and merely affirm the status quo." In these circumstances, voters deprived of real choice may opt for the least democratic option.

Marina Ottaway discusses the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Ottoman Empire in 1918, British India in 1947, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the collapse of South Africa's white supremacist government in 1993, of Czechoslovakia the following year, and of Yugoslavia. Harold Perkin sees "an acceleration of the process of collapse ... the [20th century] saw the collapse of seven great empires: Imperial China, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Turkey, the Japanese empire, the British Empire, and Russia, twice". Furthermore, the 20th Century saw the collapse of the French and Portuguese Empires.

John Kenneth Galbraith regrets the "very slight" amount of research on political power in such cases. Power regularly passes to those who "assert the unknown with the greatest conviction... not necessarily related to intelligence." What we call "power" is, "in practice, the illusion of power." Discussing how the "powerless" Mahatma Gandhi brought about the collapse of militarily "powerful" British India, Galbraith reflects that power, mostly seen as a possession of states and their leaders, would be better viewed as a flow, into and away from "those instruments that enforce it".

Few political scientists credibly predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or agreed on its causes. No one predicted the Arab spring. Though many writings study particular cases of state collapse in isolation, there appears to be no contemporary text which compares events on a global historical basis and identifies common features.

Martin Wight, like Saunders, deplored the "demonic concentrations of power" of the defeated countries in the two world wars. A devout Christian, he saw their "triumphant self-destruction" as "Antichrist moments". He disliked the modern secular tendency to view politics as a succession of questions (the Eastern question, the two-state solution) with "solutions" which are devoid of moral content, because

The members of international society are, on the whole, immortals. States do die or disappear occasionally, but mostly they outlive the span of human life. They are partnerships of the living with posterity ... A society of immortals will be looser than one of mortals ... there are moral difficulties about indicting a whole nation, because (to do so) would make the passive majority suffer for the acts of the criminal minority, and future generations for the sins of the fathers.

Regarding the idea of a state being immortal, the nation called Russia has survived the collapse of two different political systems: Imperial Russia, a monarchy, in 1917; and the Soviet Union, a communist totalitarianism, in 1991. Likewise, though Germany, ruled by the Nazi Party, was defeated in 1945 and the nation, Germany, was dismembered, it was resurrected in 1990.

Christopher Booker describes a fantasy cycle of Wishful thinking in politics in which a 'dream stage' of optimism and expansion is followed by 'frustration' and 'nightmare' stages and a final 'explosion into reality'.

Examples

Examples of state collapse through civil war include: the War of the Roses in 15th-century England; the Thirty years war (1618–48); the Irish Civil War (1916–22); the Chinese Communist Revolution (1949); and the Cuban Revolution (1958). State collapses through revolutions, not featuring civil war, took place in Imperial China (1911), in Russia (1917), and in Iran (1979). Collapse through Coups d'etat occurred in Egypt (1952), in Iraq (1958), and in Libya (1969). Negotiated surrenders of power took place in the English Commonwealth (1660); and in the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991), when it fragmented into fifteen independent states.

Medieval England was the scene of several violent dynastic collapses: the fall of the West Saxon kings, when William the Conqueror defeated Harold Godwinson in 1066; the civil war known as The Anarchy from 1139–1153 between Stephen and Empress Matilda, a time when 'Christ and his saints were asleep', which ended the Norman line of kings; the reign of the last Angevin, John, King of England, known as 'Lackland'; the tyranny of the last Plantagenet monarch, Richard II, who was defeated by Henry, duke of Lancaster, later Henry IV; the destruction of the Lancastrian dynasty during the Wars of the Roses, and especially at the battle of Tewkesbury in 1471; and the battle of Bosworth, which saw the end of Richard III and the Yorkist line 

The Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864) was a civil war in China between the established Manchu-led Qing dynasty and the Christian millenarian movement of the Heavenly Kingdom of Peace. It was the second-worst conflict in history; 20-30 million died over 15 years. In 1858–60 the Qing dynasty effectively collapsed as France and the UK invaded and imposed unequal treaties. In 1864 the Taiping regime also collapsed and the dynasty was reshaped in the Tongzhi Restoration.

The partition of India in 1947 led to the creation of two independent nations, India and Pakistan. The partition displaced between 10 and 12 million Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, creating overwhelming refugee crises; there was large-scale violence, with estimates of loss of life accompanying or preceding the partition disputed and varying between several hundred thousand and two million.

Failed attempts at reform in the Soviet Union, a standstill economy, and defeat in the war in Afghanistan led to a general feeling of discontent, especially in the Baltic republics and Eastern Europe. Greater political and social freedoms, instituted by the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev's policies of Glasnost and Perestroika encouraged open criticism of the communist regime. The dramatic drop of the price of oil in 1985 and 1986 profoundly influenced actions of the Soviet leadership. The Reagan administration in the 1980s placed Pershing II missiles in western Europe in order to escalate the Cold War, overstretch the USSR economy and bring about its downfall because 'they can't sustain military spending the way we can'. The Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991 when Boris Yeltsin seized power in the aftermath of a failed coup that had attempted to topple Gorbachev. Soviet nuclear weapons were all reassigned to Russia;

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia collapsed in the 1990s, when its six socialist republics broke apart to become separate countries; though Slovenia seceded peacefully, civil wars broke out in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, then part of Serbia. Ethnic cleansing and genocide erupted, including the Srebrenica massacre and Bosnian genocide.

The apartheid system in South Africa ended through negotiations between the governing National Party, the African National Congress, and other political organizations, resulting in South Africa's first non-racial election, which was won by the African National Congress. Concerns were raised about the future of its nuclear weapons but they were dismantled.

Potential for instability

In a totalitarian state or an ideocracy, individuals may develop a closed mind and an authoritarian personality, making them more likely to resist threats to the incumbent regime. Psychologists speak of a "Masada complex" that may drive fanatics to a suicidal, violent last-ditch stand. Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has commented that "History teaches that dangers are never greater than when empires break up."

The new regime gains power, not through the truth of its doctrines and promises, but through its ability to organize and absorb the frustrated masses. As Pope Francis warned in 2017, "in times of crisis, we lack judgement". The timidity of the old regime contrasts with the boldness of those in rebellion against it; "Where power is not joined with faith in the future, it is used mainly to ward off the new and preserve the status quo. On the other hand, extravagant hope, even when not backed by actual power, is likely to generate reckless daring." "The frustrated see in a general downfall an approach to the brotherhood of all. Chaos, like the grave, is a haven of equality."

According to political scientists, in an ideocracy there must be a ruthless charismatic leader: "the leader is the movement", and all individuals are required to submit to, and worship him. "Followers who lead barren, insecure, frustrated lives obey the leader, not through faith in his vision of a 'Promised land', but because he leads them away from their unwanted selves". When collapse threatens he may insist on a "fight to the finish".

Hitler, according to Walter Langer had a Messiah complex and saw himself as the "Saviour of Germany" who performed "miracles" with the economy. He was unnaturally fond of his mother, to the extent that Germany became a "mother symbol". His drive to destroy (the Jews, communism, Europe) was an unconscious attempt to resolve his Oedipus complex and the injustices of his childhood. He "dismantled the German state ... and replaced it with a war machine". He was swept along by a tide of events.

Mussolini, according to Denis Mack Smith, "was an actor, playing the part that Italians wanted him to be". He was vindictive, sadistic, impulsive, proud and cruel, full of "demonic wilfulness" and did not know right from wrong. When in 1944 he led a puppet state in northern Italy, he "divided Italy in two and initiated 18 months of terrible civil war." Ken Livingstone has compared Slobodan Milosevic to Hitler for his racism and expansionist goals. Saddam Hussein, who also suffered from a Messiah complex, was similar: "Hitler was not one of a kind. As long as millions of people passionately long for his return, it is only a matter of time until their wish is fulfilled."

Nicolae Ceaușescu "went mad" as early as 1971 according to John Sweeney, when, "blind to his own Messianism", he attempted to recreate North Korean totalitarianism in Romania. He "played the king" and the role of "chosen one" and "saviour". Czar Nicholas II by contrast was deferential. Acceding at an early age, 26, he was untrained in governance. Grand Duke Vladimir's son Cyril was a rival candidate for the throne. Liberals and revolutionaries challenged his autocracy. By 1916 he had become apathetic, dominated by the Czarina and Rasputin, a "Christ in the image of the rejected and agonizing monarchy".

In the case of the USSR, a Marxist Revolutionary wave had formed in which several subordinate regimes in Eastern Europe and Africa collapsed almost simultaneously with the central power. Mikhail Gorbachev saw the USSR as "on the way to civil war" and tried to conciliate both reformers and hardliners. He and F.W. De Klerk in South Africa focused on acknowledging and managing decline, rather than "heroically" attempting to deny it. They have enjoyed better reputations, although in China, Gorbachev is seen as a dismal failure who capitulated to the West.

Sequence of events

Buildup to collapse

State collapse is often a gradual process of slow, imperceptible, generational change. Only the courageous are prepared for speaking truth to power; the majority 'go with the flow', as with Jewish passivity in the face of the creeping corruption of Nazi Germany.

Collapse is often preceded externally by war, and internally by overpopulation and repression. As Paul Kennedy points out, 'Nations in decline instinctively spend more on "security" and thus compound their long-term dilemma.' In the case of a revolution the crisis is reached when 'the old regime is no longer able to mobilise force'.

Regeneration

Either the incumbent regime itself, or an extremist reactionary group dissatisfied with its performance, may attempt to postpone or avoid collapse by regenerating popular support; 'At the end of a dynasty there often appears some show of power giving the impression that the dynasty's senility has been made to disappear. It lights up brilliantly just before it is extinguished, like a candle which leaps up brilliantly just before it is put out.' 

To do so they may have to take 'heroic' measures; 'Throughout history there have always been in the event of defeat two paths of action; the one aims at saving enough of the substance as possible. the other at leaving behind a stirring legend.' According to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, they may rethink or adapt the ideology, or replace it by a completely new set of ideals. For example, in Poland, according to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, communist ideocracy failed in 1980; the recognition of Lech Walesa's Solidarity Trade Union led to a military coup and authoritarian military rule.

According to Sabrina Ramet, regenerative changes occurred in Yugoslavia in the 1980s when the communist ideology was replaced by a nationalist drive for a Greater Serbia and by an anti-bureaucratic revolution in support of Slobodan Milosevic. The Young Turk coup of 1908, the 1991 Soviet coup d'etat attempt, and the financial/industrial reforms of Sergei Witte in Imperial Russia, were all aimed at regenerating causes which were nearing collapse.

Crisis point

When collapse - whether through civil war, revolution, coup d'état, or military defeat and/or invasion - becomes unavoidable and immediate, law and order may break down. There may be ethnic cleansing or genocide. Hitler ordered the killing of invalids, Gypsies, Russians and Jews in the Final solution. In Ottoman Turkey, estimates for the death toll in the Armenian genocide vary between 300,000 and 1.5 million.

In the Pacific theatre of World War II, Japan's collapse was hastened by nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

When Ottoman Turkey collapsed at the end of World War I, it lost territory, including what became Syria, Iraq and Palestine; the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire gave rise to Czechoslovakia, Hungary and the Austrian Republic, while Slovenia and Croatia became part of Yugoslavia. Nazi Germany in 1945 fragmented into East and West Germany, while Pomerania and Silesia became part of Poland.

Post-collapse

In 1946, the Diet ratified a new Constitution of Japan The new constitution drafted by Americans allowed access and control over the Japanese military through MacArthur and the Allied occupation on Japan. "The political project drew much of its inspiration from the U.S. Bill of Rights, New Deal social legislation, the liberal constitutions of several European states and even the Soviet Union."

Recovery from collapse is often improved by formal or informal efforts at justice, such as the Nuremberg trials and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (South Africa). Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein were also tried in court, but Mussolini and Colonel Gaddafi were murdered by mobs.

The collapse of the Ottomans in 1918 had long-term consequences, 'triggering most of the problems that plague the Middle East today.'  Hegemony in the Middle East has been subject to quarrels between British, French, Zionist, American, Arab nationalist, Saudi and Iranian interests ever since.

Hitler, says Sebastian Haffner, 'whether we like it or not', created many features of the postwar world, including the state of Israel, the end of European empires, the division of Germany, and the joint hegemony of the US and USSR.

States allegedly at risk of collapse

Paul Stares and Helia Ighani suggest that Saudi Arabia could lapse into a succession crisis and civil war if Mohammed bin Salman's accession is contested after the death of his aging father, King Salman. Lebanon and Jordan could collapse following the influx of refugees from Syria and the resultant burden on infrastructure.

In 2003, Colonel Gaddafi of Libya agreed to dismantle his nuclear and chemical weapons programme. In 2011 he was deposed and murdered. This is the reason, according to Forbes magazine, for North Korea to seek to guarantee its security and invulnerability through continuing its nuclear weapons programme. Tom Embury-Dennis claimed (in 2017) that North Korea could collapse "within a year" as new US sanctions take effect. In Venezuela, protests and riots against the authoritarian rule of Nicolas Maduro have steadily increased since 2014, while the economy and social infrastructure have worsened.

Emmanuel Todd, one of the first to predict the fall of the USSR, now predicts the collapse of the US in his book After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order. According to Iranian general Reza Naqdi, the US will collapse by 2035 and the Trump presidency is hastening that process. Margaret MacMillan has compared President Trump to Mussolini, on the grounds that President Trump similarly seeks attention, makes grand gestures, plays the 'strong man' and seeks out enemies.

Nigel Lawson predicts that the European Union will become a federal superstate; also likely to collapse, according to the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, journalist Stephen Pollard, German economist Thorsten Polleit, and a leaked German Government contingency plan.

S Daniel Abraham anticipates the collapse of Israel, where Palestinians will soon outnumber Jews, if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not resolved; Iqbal Jassat compares the situation to apartheid in South Africa. In Pakistan, Islamic militants are allegedly infiltrating the military and nuclear weapons systems. There are fears of collapse into nuclear war with India, or of chaos enabling extremists to seize weapons of mass destruction.

Gordon G. Chang, in editions of The Coming Collapse of China, has made several predictions of collapse, none of which have materialised. Bruce Gilley sees a largely peaceful process unfolding. David Shambaugh says China must either liberalise to become a developed economy–as Taiwan and South Korea have–or else remain authoritarian and endure a stagnating economy. "We cannot predict when Chinese communism will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are seeing its final phases."

Mark Katz suggests that the Islamic fundamentalist revolutionary wave led by Iran could collapse, but "must first expand significantly" and then experience a "crisis of confidence".

According to several sources, Myanmar, following the 2021 Myanmar coup d'etat, is on the brink of collapse into a' failed state'

Geoff Mulgan has called for; "new structures of government above the nation-state... this task is essential for human survival".

In Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic worsened the already slow economic growth of the country and exacerbated existing social issues such as economic inequality and high unemployment. Experts argue that if public policies are not implemented to reverse such issues, Brazil would run the risk of suffering a state collapse.

In popular culture

There are many semi-fictional books and films, which dramatically demonstrate the turbulent effects of collapse upon innocent or naive individuals. Bernardo Bertolucci's film, The Last Emperor, showed the collapse of both Imperial China and Manchukuo, as well as the post-collapse trial and rehabilitation of Pu Yi. Bruno Ganz played Hitler in Downfall, which depicts the final days of Germany's Third Reich. Events from the period, as seen by prisoners at Auschwitz, are shown in Primo Levi's memoir, If This Is a Man, and in the graphic novels Maus and Maus II. Kurt Vonnegut witnessed the bombing of Dresden and fictionalized the experience in Slaughterhouse-Five. Scum of the Earth (book) is a memoir by Arthur Koestler of the collapse of France in 1940.

Robert K. Massie's book about the last Russian tsar, Nicholas and Alexandra, was also filmed. Doctor Zhivago and And Quiet Flows the Don (filmed as War and Revolution) relate stories of families caught up in the collapse of The Russian Empire. The House of the Mosque and Persepolis depict the collapse of Iran.

The Left Behind series of novels by Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins features the supposed role of Israel in the apocalyptic End Times. In the spy novel, The Mask of Dimitrios (1939), Eric Ambler comments: "In a dying civilization, political prestige goes not to the man with the shrewdest diagnosis, but to the one with the best bedside manner."