Search This Blog

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Integral theory

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_theory

Integral theory
as developed by Ken Wilber is a synthetic metatheory aiming to unify a broad spectrum of Western theories and models and Eastern meditative traditions within a singular conceptual framework. The original basis, which dates to the 1970s, is the concept of a "spectrum of consciousness" that ranges from archaic consciousness to the highest form of spiritual consciousness, depicting it as an evolutionary developmental model. This model incorporates stages of development as described in structural developmental stage theories, as well as eastern meditative traditions and models of spiritual growth, and a variety of psychic and supernatural experiences.

In the advancement of his framework, Wilber introduced the AQAL (All Quadrants All Levels) model in 1995, which further expanded the theory through a four-quadrant grid (interior-exterior and individual-collective). This grid integrates theories and ideas detailing the individual's psychological and spiritual development, collective shifts in consciousness, and levels or holons in neurological functioning and societal organization. Integral theory aims to be a universal metatheory in which all academic disciplines, forms of knowledge, and experiences cohesively align.

As per 2010, integral theory had found its primary audience within certain subcultures, with only limited engagement from the broader academic community, though a number of dissertations have used integral theories as their theoretical foundation, in addition to ca. 150 publications on the topic. The Integral Institute published the Journal of Integral Theory and Practice, and SUNY Press has published twelve books under the "SUNY series in Integral Theory" in the early 2010s, and a number of texts applying integral theory to various topics have been released by other publishers.

Origins and background

Origins

Ken Wilber's integral theory is a synthetic metatheory, a theory whose subject matter he intended to organize and integrate pre-existing theories themselves, doing so in a clear and systematic way. A synthetic metatheory "classifies whole theories according to some overarching typology." Wilber's metatheory started in the 1970s, with the publication of The Spectrum of Consciousness (1977), synthesizing Eastern religious traditions with Western schools of psychotherapy and Western developmental psychology. In The Atman Project (1980), this spectrum was presented as a developmental model, akin to western structural stage theory, models of psychology development that describe human development as following a set course of stages of development.

According to these early presentations, which rely strongly on perceived analogies between disparate theories (Sri Aurobindo's integral yoga, stage theories of psychological development, and Gebser's theory of collective mutations of consciousness), human development follows a set course, from pre-personal infant development, to personal adult development, culminating in trans-personal spiritual development. In Wilber's model, development starts with the separation of individual consciousness from a transcendental reality. The whole course of human development aims at reconnecting spirit to itself through developing a transcendental consciousness that passes through and then dis-identifies from a mature adult ego. The pre-personal and personal stages are taken from western structural stage theories, which are correlated with other stage theories. In his early work he posited four stages of properly spiritual development, going from the psychic to the subtle to the causal to the nondual (the last of which according to Wilber is not properly conceived of as a stage, but as the essence of all stages). This model has a broad resonance with many Eastern models of spiritual development, particularly those found in the Hindu and Buddhist tantric traditions. They also find rough correlations with the concepts of the great chain of being and Aurobindo's elaboration of the five sheaths or koshas in Hindu thought.

Wilber's ideas have grown more and more inclusive over the years, incorporating theories of ontology, epistemology, and methodology, creating a framework which he calls AQAL, which is shorthand for "All Quadrants All Levels All Lines All States All Types." In this, Wilber's older frameworks are primarily reworked using what Wilber calls the four quadrant model. This model divides views of reality into the individual-subjective (upper left), the individual-objective (upper right), the collective-intersubjective (lower left) and the collective-interobjective (lower right) quadrants. This model can then be used to contextualize and comprehend differing views on individual development, collective evolution of consciousness, and levels or holons of neurological functioning and societal organization more clearly, ultimately integrating them into a single metatheory in which all academic disciplines and every form of knowledge and experience are argued to fit together.

Main influences

Sri Aurobindo

The integral yoga of Sri Aurobindo describes five levels of being (physical; vital; mind or mental being; the higher reaches of mind or psychic being; Supermind), akin to the five koshas or sheaths, and three types of being (outer being, inner being, psychic being). The psychic being refers to the higher reaches of mind (higher mind, illuminated mind, intuition, overmind). It correlates with buddhi, the connecting element between purusha and prakriti in Samkhya, and correlated by Wilber with his transpersonal stages. Aurobindo focuses on spiritual development and the process of unifying of all parts of one's being with the Divine. As described by Sri Aurobindo and his co-worker The Mother (1878–1973), this spiritual teaching involves an integral divine transformation of the entire being, rather than the liberation of only a single faculty such as the intellect or the emotions or the body.

Structural stage theory

Structural stage theories are based on the observation that humans develop through a pattern of distinct stages over time, and that these stages can be described based on their distinguishing characteristics. In Piaget's theory of cognitive development, and related models like those of James Mark Baldwin, Jane Loevinger, Robert Kegan, Lawrence Kohlberg, and James W. Fowler, stages have a constant order of succession, later stages integrate the achievements of earlier stages, and each is characterized by a particular type of structure of mental processes which is specific to it. The time of appearance may vary to a certain extent depending upon environmental conditions.

Jean Gebser - mutations of consciousness

The word integral was independently suggested by Jean Gebser (1905–1973), a Swiss phenomenologist and interdisciplinary scholar, in 1939 to describe his own intuition regarding the structure of human consciousness that would follow the modern or mental structure. Gebser was the author of The Ever-Present Origin, which describes human history as a series of mutations in consciousness. He only afterwards discovered the similarity between his own ideas and those of Sri Aurobindo and Teilhard de Chardin.

Spiral Dynamics and collaboration with Don Beck

After completing Sex, Ecology, Spirituality (1995), Ken Wilber started to collaborate with Don Beck, whose Spiral Dynamics is based on the work of Clare W. Graves, and which shows strong correlations with Wilber's model. Beck and Christopher Cowan had published their application and extension of Graves's work in 1996 in Spiral Dynamics: Mastering Values, Leadership, and Change. Wilber also referenced Graves's emergent cyclical levels of existence in Sex, Ecology, Spirituality, when he introduced his quadrant model, and began to incorporate Spiral Dynamics in the "Integral Psychology" section of The Collected Works of Ken Wilber (Vol. 4) in 1999, and gave it a prominent place in the 2000 edition of A Theory of Everything.

Wilber and Beck put a strong emphasis on the distinctions between the 1st tier (Green and earlier) vs 2nd tier (Yellow and later) levels, associating integral thinking with the 2nd tier. They developed the concept of the "Mean Green Meme" (MGM) regarding the Green level of Spiral Dynamics, which they associated with postmodernism. Wilber further developed this idea into the "Boomeritis" concept, devoting a chapter to each in A Theory of Everything. As Beck explained:

Ken and I asked: How do we uncap GREEN? How do we keep it moving? Because so much of it has become a stagnant pond, in our view. So we said, let's invent the Mean Green Meme. Let's shame it a bit. Let's hold up a mirror and show it what it's doing, with the hope that it will separate the Mean Green Meme from legitimate healthy GREEN. Let's expose enough people to the duplicity and artificiality and self-serving nature of their own belief systems around political correctness to finally get the word out that there's something beyond that.

Cowan and his business partner Natasha Todorovic disagreed with this view, leading Todorovic to publish a paper refuting it based on psychological trait mapping research. Todorovic charged that when the Mean Green Meme concept is used to criticize a person making an argument, it "usurps arguments by undermining an individual before the debate has begun." After his collaboration with Cowan ended, Beck announced his own version of Spiral Dynamics, namely "Spiral Dynamics integral" (SDi) at the very end of 2001, while Cowan and his business partner Natasha Todorovic stayed closer to Graves' original model.

In his 2006 book Integral Spirituality, Wilber created the AQAL "altitudes" through which different lines of development move. The first eight of these "altitudes" parallel Spiral Dynamics, but the new concept was argued to create a more comprehensive, integrated system. By 2006, Wilber and Beck had diverged in their interpretations of the Spiral Dynamics model, with Beck positioning the spiral of levels at the center of the quadrants, while Wilber placed it solely in the lower left quadrant (e.g., the collective-intersubjective quadrant that relates to a culture's interpersonal values and beliefs). Beck saw Wilber's modifications as distortions of the model, and expressed frustration with what he saw as Wilber's undue emphasis on spirituality, while Wilber declared Spiral Dynamics to be incomplete, as those who study only Spiral Dynamics "will never have a satori" (e.g., a high spiritual state experience). Beck continued to use the SDi name along with the 4Q/8L (four quadrants/eight levels) system from A Theory of Everything, while Wilber went on to criticize both Beck and Cowan.

Wilber's metatheory

In Sex, Ecology, Spirituality (1995), Wilber introduced his AQAL (All Quadrants All Levels All Lines All States All Types) metatheory, a framework which consists of five fundamental concepts, sometimes called the five elements. This includes the four quadrant model, levels of development, lines of development, states of consciousness, as well as the notion of types. In this schema the four quadrant model is foundational, and the remaining four elements are then added to flesh out topics more fully. According to Wilber, the AQAL model is one of the most comprehensive approaches to reality, a metatheory in which all academic disciplines and every form of knowledge and experience fit together coherently.

"Levels" are the generalized stages of development, from pre-personal through personal to transpersonal. "Lines" are specific domains of development - akin to the concept of multiple intelligences - which may progress unevenly in a given person or a given group. That is, different lines can be, and often are, at different levels or altitudes at the same time. "States" are states of consciousness. According to Wilber persons (and, in a somewhat different way, cultures and collectives) may go through a wide variety of states. These can include higher spiritual states, as well as states of depression or anxiety, as well as psychologically regressive states that are holdovers from earlier stages of development.[note 5] "Types" is a category meant to describe idiosyncratic styles or emphases that one might bring to any of these other elements. For example, a certain culture might bring a particular style or emphasis to the actualization of a specific stage or state, i.e., the experience of higher spiritual states within Zen Buddhism might be colored by Japanese cultural norms, while the higher states experienced by a Hindu might be colored by the philosophy of Advaita Vedanta. Types are considered non-hierarchical and non-normative, whereas other features of Levels and Lines and States can be understood hierarchically. The individual building blocks of Wilber's model are holons, a term first introduced by the philosopher Arthur Koestler, which means that every entity and concept is both an entity on its own, and a hierarchical part of a larger whole.

In order for an account of the Kosmos to be complete, Wilber believes that it must include each of these five categories. For Wilber, only such an account can be accurately called "integral," describing AQAL as "one suggested architecture of the Kosmos."

Four quadrants

Upper-Left (UL)

"I"
Interior Individual
Intentional

e.g. Jane Loevinger and Sigmund Freud

Upper-Right (UR)

"It"
Exterior Individual
Behavioral

e.g. Skinner

Lower-Left (LL)

"We"
Interior Collective
Cultural

e.g. Jean Gebser and Jurgen Habermas

Lower-Right (LR)

"Its"
Exterior Collective
Social

e.g. Marx

The AQAL-framework has a four-quadrant grid with two axes, specifically the "interior-exterior" axes, akin to the subjective-objective distinction, and "individual-collective" axes. The left side of the model (interior) mirrors the individual development from structural stage theory, and the collective mutations of consciousness suggested by Gebser or through the collective value memes as offered by Spiral Dynamics. The right side of the model describes, among other things, levels of neurological functioning and societal organization. Wilber uses this quadrant diagram to categorize the perspectives of various theories and scholars:

  • Interior individual perspective (upper-left quadrant) describes individual psychological development, as described in structural stage theory, focusing on "I";
  • Interior collective perspective (lower-left) describes collective mutations in consciousness, as in Gebser's theory, focusing on "we";
  • Exterior individual perspective (upper-right) describes the physical (neurological) correlates of consciousness, from atoms through the nerve-system to the neo-cortex, focusing on observable behavior, "it";
  • Exterior collective perspective (lower-right) describes the organizational levels of society (i.e. a plurality of people) as functional entities seen from outside, e.g. "they."

Each of the four approaches has a valid perspective to offer. The upper-left subjective emotional pain of a person who suffers a tragedy is one perspective; the upper-right objective neurological reaction of the brain during and after a tragedy offers an additional perspective; the lower-left way a culture understands and conceptualizes a tragedy and how to cope with it offers an additional perspective; and a lower-right analysis of how society is set up to practically respond to tragedies (i.e., through systemic interventions or reparative measures) offers yet another viewpoint. According to Wilber all are needed for real appreciation of a matter.

According to Wilber, all four perspectives offer complementary, rather than contradictory, perspectives. It is possible for all to be "correct," and all are necessary for a complete account of human existence. According to Wilber, each by itself offers only a partial view of reality. According to Wilber modern Western society has a pathological focus on the exterior or objective perspective. Such perspectives value that which can be externally measured and tested in a laboratory, but tend to deny or marginalize subjectivity, individual experience, feelings, and values (the left-hand quadrants) as unproven or having no reality. Wilber identifies this as a fundamental cause of modern society's malaise, and names the situation resulting from such perspectives "flatland".

The Integral or AQAL model places a great value on the highest stages and states. This can be referred to as nondual awareness or "the simple feeling of being," which is equated with a range of "ultimates" that are recorded and sought in a variety of Eastern and Western esoteric spiritual traditions. This nondual awareness transcends and includes the phenomenal world, which is understood to be only an emanation or manifestation of a transcendental reality. Thus, Wilber promotes a type of panentheism, which signifies that God (or spirit) is both present as the manifest universe but also transcends it. Wilber argues this is the "ultimate" truth or nature of life. According to Wilber, the AQAL categories—quadrants, lines, levels, states, and types—describe the relative truths we encounter at previous stages and states.

Levels or stages

The basis of Wilber's theory is his developmental model. Wilber's model follows the discrete structural stages of development, as described in the structural stage theories of developmental psychology, including but-not-limited to Loevinger's stages of ego development, Piaget's theory of cognitive development, Kohlberg's stages of moral development, Erikson's stages of psychosocial development, and Fowler's stages of spiritual development.

To these stages are added psychic and supernatural experiences and various models of spiritual development, presented as additional and higher stages of structural development. According to Wilber, these stages can be grouped in pre-personal (subconscious motivations), personal (conscious mental processes), and transpersonal (integrative and mystical structures) stages. All of these mental structures are considered to be complementary and legitimate, rather than mutual exclusive. Wilber's equates the levels in psychological and cultural development, with the hierarchical nature of matter itself.

Lines, streams, or intelligences

According to Wilber, various domains or lines of development, or intelligences can be discerned. They include cognitive, ethical, aesthetic, spiritual, kinesthetic, affective, musical, spatial, and logical-mathematical. For example, one can be highly developed cognitively (cerebrally smart) without being highly developed morally (as in the case of Nazi doctors).

States

States are temporary states of consciousness, such as waking, dreaming and sleeping, bodily sensations, and drug-induced and meditation-induced states. Some states are interpreted as temporary intimations of higher stages of development. Wilber's formulation is: "States are free, structures are earned". A person has to build or earn structure; it cannot be peak-experienced for free. What can be peak-experienced, however, are higher states of freedom from the stage a person is habituated to, so these deeper or higher states can be experienced at any level.

The notion of states find additional clarification in the formulation called the Wilber-Combs lattice, which argues that states are experienced and are immediately interpreted by the level or main structure of consciousness operating in the person. In this way, relatively high states can be interpreted by more or less developed and mature persons.

Types

Types are models and theories that do not fit into Wilber's other categorizations. Wilber makes types part of his model in order to point out that these distinctions are different from the already mentioned distinctions: quadrants, lines, levels and states. They are styles, emphases, or interpretations that influence a person's or a culture's perspectives, but that are non-hierarchical and non-normative. No type is in-and-of-itself better than another. Examples includes masculine/feminine typologies, the nine Enneagram categories, and Jung's psychological typologies. All types are considered potentially valid, though Wilber also argued the evidence for types is somewhat less persuasive than the four other elements of AQAL theory.

Holons

Holons are the individual building blocks of Wilber's model. Wilber borrowed the concept of holons from Arthur Koestler's description of the great chain of being, a mediaeval description of levels of being. "Holon" means that every entity and concept is both an entity on its own, and a hierarchical part of a larger whole. For example, a cell in an organism is both a whole as a cell, and at the same time a part of another whole, the organism. Likewise a letter is a self-existing entity and simultaneously an integral part of a word, which then is part of a sentence, which is part of a paragraph, which is part of a page; and so on. Everything from quarks to matter to energy to ideas can be looked at in this way. The relation between individuals and society is not the same as between cells and organisms though, because individual holons can be members but not parts of social holons.

In his book Sex, Ecology, Spirituality: The Spirit of Evolution, Wilber outlines twenty fundamental properties, called "tenets", that characterize all holons. For example, they must be able to maintain their "wholeness" and also their "part-ness;" a holon that cannot maintain its wholeness will cease to exist and will break up into its constituent parts.

Holons form natural holarchies, like Russian dolls, where a whole is a part of another whole, in turn part of another whole, and so on. Each holon can be seen from within (subjective, interior perspective) and from the outside (objective, exterior perspective), and from an individual or a collective perspective.

Reception

Reception in mainstream academia

According to Frank Visser, Wilber's early work was praised by transpersonal psychologists, but support for Wilber "even in transpersonal circles" had waned by the early 1990s. In 2002 Wilber stated that he had long since stopped identifying himself with the transpersonal field, citing what he found to be deep and irreconcilable confusions in the field.

Andrew P. Smith, writing in 2004, notices that Wilber, though probably widely known, is mostly ignored and hardly criticised by "conventional scholars," likely because Wilber's work is not peer-reviewed. According to Zimmerman in 2005, integral theory is irrelevant in, and widely ignored at mainstream academic institutions, as well as sharply contested by critics. The independent scholar Frank Visser argued there is a problematic relation between Wilber and academia for several reasons, including a "self-referential discourse" wherein Wilber tends to describe his work as being at the forefront of science.

Forman and Esbjörn-Hargens responded directly in 2008 to criticisms by Frank Visser regarding the acceptance of Wilber's work in the academic world by criticizing Visser's often critical website, noting it lacks peer review, resulting in an un-academic presentation of critiques of Wilber's work. They also said that presenters at the first academic integral theory conference in 2008 had largely mainstream academic credentials, and pointed to existing programs in the alternative universities John F. Kennedy University (closed in 2020), Fielding Graduate University and CIIS as an indication of the emergence of a integral movement. Esbjörn-Hargens (2010) argued that integral theory was making inroads in the academics, both in terms of the number of academics interested in the theory as well as through its use in a number of doctoral dissertations.

Criticisms and responses

While receiving attention in publications on humanistic and transpersonal psychology in the 1980s and early 1990s, since the publication of Sex, Ecology, Spirituality in 1995 Wilber's work has mostly been discussed in alternative and non-academic fora and websites. While responding to criticisms in Ken Wilber in Dialogue (1998), Wilber has mostly ignored criticisms of his work. In 2006 Wilber created a great deal of controversy when he argued in a derisive tone that many of the critiques he received were simply ad hominem and also failed to understand his model. It was argued this essay "insulted his critics, degrading and dismissing them by basically stating that he was smarter than everybody else."

Psychologist Kirk J. Schneider, a proponent of humanistic-existential psychology, critiqued Transpersonal Psychology and Ken Wilber in the late 1980s in the Journal of Humanistic Psychology, for its spiritually absolutist tendencies, which he argued ignore human fallibility, a critique to which Wilber was invited to respond.

In 1998 an edited volume was published by Rothberg and Kelly entitled Ken Wilber in Dialogue which compiled written, critical exchanges between Wilber and over ten of his critics. Among the critics was Michael Washburn, who previously engaged Wilber in an argument about the nature of spiritual development, with Washburn seeing it as a u-turn to the Dynamic Ground also experienced in childhood but lost in maturity, giving way to ego-transcendence, and Wilber seeing it as a novel understanding only emerging after adult development.

Psychologist Jorge Ferrer, in his 2001 publication Revisioning Transpersonal Theory, included a criticism of the AQAL model as overly hierarchical and culturally biased, arguing for a more pluralistic understanding of the world's spiritual traditions. The book received positive reviews for presenting fundamental new developments in transpersonal psychology. According to Gregg Lahood and Edward Dale it was representative for the changes in transpersonal psychology, after the initial east-west synthesis and Wilber's neo-Perennial hierarchical models. Wilber responded strongly to the criticisms in an interview, and criticized Ferrer's book in a short statement as being exemplary of the 'green mean meme', a rhetorical term jointly coined by Wilber and Don Beck that criticizes what they saw as the tendency for post-modern (i.e., green) thinkers to be aggressive, judgmental, and implicitly hierarchical while explicitly claiming to be caring, sensitive, and non-hierarchical. Ferrer in turn rejected Wilber's criticism.

A long standing critic of Wilber's is former fan Frank Visser, who published a biography of Ken Wilber and his work. Visser also has dedicated a website to Wilber's work, including critical essays by himself and others. and a bibliography of online criticism of Wilber's Integral Theory.

A major, specific criticism of Visser's is that Wilber misunderstands Darwinian evolutionary theory, and erroneously posits a role for "spirit" in the evolution of both subjective and objective realities. According to David C. Lane, writing in 2017, Wilber's integral theory is a religious myth build on "a deeply held theological doctrine that evolution is driven by a divine purpose."

Influence

Integral movement

Wilber's work began to draw attention from people interested in 'integral thinking' following the completion of Sex, Ecology, Spirituality in 1995. Some individuals affiliated with Ken Wilber have said that there exists a loosely defined "Integral movement". Others, however, have disagreed. Whatever its status as a "movement", there are a variety of religious organizations, think tanks, conferences, workshops, and publications in the US and internationally that utilize the term integral and that explicitly refer to Wilber's definition of the term.

Steve McIntosh (2007) pointed to Henri Bergson and Teilhard de Chardin as pre-figuring Wilber as integral thinkers. Gary Hampson (2007) suggested that there are six intertwined genealogical branches of Integral, based on those who first used the term: those aligned with Aurobindo, Gebser, Wilber, Gangadean, László and Steiner (noting that the Steiner branch is via the conduit of Gidley). The editors of What Is Enlightenment? (2007) listed as contemporary Integralists Don Edward Beck, Allan Combs, Robert Godwin, Sally Goerner, George Leonard, Michael Murphy, William Irwin Thompson, and Wilber.

Applications and publications

SUNY Press published twelve books in their "SUNY series in Integral Theory" in the early 2010s. A select group of the white papers submitted for the 2008 integral conference were edited and compiled by Esbjörn-Hargens and published in 2010 in the SUNY series as Integral Theory in Action in Integral Theory,

A number of texts have sought to apply Wilber's AQAL model to psychotherapy and psychopathology. The Missing Myth (2013) by Gilles Herrada utilized an Integral framework to examine the topic of same-sex love and relationships from a biological, social, and symbolic/mythic perspective.

Besides psychology and psychotherapy, Wilber's ideas have also found applicability in consultancy and management, most notably Don Beck's and Wilber's Spiral Dynamics Integral. Reinventing Organizations (2014) by Frederick Laloux examines the topic of organizational developmental from an Integral and Spiral Dynamics perspective, with a foreword by Wilber. Elza Maalouf used the AQAL-model in her corporate consulting work in the Middle East.

Michael E. Zimmerman and Sean Esbjörn-Hargens have applied Wilber's integral theory in their environmental studies and ecological research, calling it "integral ecology". Marilyn Hamilton used the term "integral city", describing the city as a living human system, using an integral lens.

Alternative approaches

Bonnitta Roy has introduced a process model of integral theory, combining Western process philosophy, Dzogchen ideas, and Wilberian theory. She distinguishes between Wilber's concept of perspective and the Dzogchen concept of view, arguing that Wilber's view is situated within a framework or structural enfoldment which constrains it, in contrast to the Dzogchen intention of being mindful of view.

Wendelin Küpers, a German scholar specializing in phenomenological research, has proposed that an "integral pheno-practice" based on aspects of the work of Maurice Merleau-Ponty can provide the basis of an "adequate phenomenology" useful in integral research. His proposed approach is intended to offer a more inclusive and coherent approach than classical phenomenology, including procedures and techniques called epoché, bracketing, reduction, and free variation.

Sean Esbjörn-Hargens has proposed a new approach to climate change called "integral pluralism", which builds on Wilber's recent work but emphasizes elements such as ontological pluralism that are understated or absent in Wilber's own writings.

Esbjörn-Hargens later expanded his interest in new approaches to meta-theorizing into engagements with French complexity theorist Edgar Morin as well as philosophy-of-science writer Roy Bhaskar. A multi-year exchange took place at multiple symposia between a group of integral theorists and a group versed in Bhaskar's Critical Realism, which included Bhaskar himself. The details of the meetings and its participants are recounted in a joint publication Metatheory for the Twenty-First Century (2015), which "examines the points of connection and divergence between critical realism and integral theory." P. Marshall's A Complex Integral Realist Perspective (2016), applying the "integrative metatheories" of Morin, Wilber and Baskar to "[outline] a ‘new axial vision’ for the twenty-first century," was also "informed, broadened and deepened" by these conferences.

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Cloud seeding

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding
Cloud seeding can be done by ground generators or planes
Cloud Seeding
This image explaining cloud seeding shows a substance – either silver iodide or dry ice – being dumped onto the cloud, which then becomes a rain shower. The process shown in the upper-right is what is happening in the cloud and the process of condensation upon the introduced material.

Cloud seeding is a type of weather modification that aims to change the amount or type of precipitation, mitigate hail or disperse fog. The usual objective is to increase rain or snow, either for its own sake or to prevent precipitation from occurring in days afterward.

Cloud seeding is undertaken by dispersing substances into the air that serve as cloud condensation or ice nuclei. Common agents include silver iodide, potassium iodide, and dry ice, with hygroscopic materials like table salt gaining popularity due to their ability to attract moisture. Techniques vary from static seeding, which encourages ice particle formation in supercooled clouds to increase precipitation, to dynamic seeding, designed to enhance convective cloud development through the release of latent heat.

Methods of dispersion include aircraft and ground-based generators, with newer approaches involving drones delivering electric charges to stimulate rainfall, or infrared laser pulses aimed at inducing particle formation. Despite decades of research and application, cloud seeding's effectiveness remains a subject of debate among scientists, with studies offering mixed results on its impact on precipitation enhancement. Some studies suggest it is "difficult to show clearly that cloud seeding has a very large effect".

Environmental and health impacts are considered minimal due to the low concentrations of substances used. But concerns persist over the potential accumulation of seeding agents in sensitive ecosystems. The practice has a long history, with initial experiments dating back to the 1940s, and has been used for various purposes, including agricultural benefits, water supply augmentation, and event planning. Legal frameworks primarily focus on prohibiting the military or hostile use of weather modification techniques, leaving the ownership and regulation of cloud-seeding activities to national discretion. Despite skepticism and debate over its efficacy and environmental impact, cloud seeding continues to be explored and applied in regions worldwide as a tool for weather modification.

Methods

Salts

Ground Based Silver Iodide Generator – Colorado, US

The most common chemicals used for cloud seeding include silver iodide, potassium iodide and dry ice (solid carbon dioxide). Liquid propane, which expands into a gas, has also been used. It can produce ice crystals at higher temperatures than silver iodide. After promising research, the use of hygroscopic materials, such as table salt, is becoming more popular.

When cloud seeding, increased snowfall takes place when temperatures within the clouds are between −20 and −7 °C. Freezing nucleation is induced by the introduction of substances similar to silver iodide, which has a crystalline structure like ice.

In mid-altitude clouds, the usual seeding strategy has been based on the fact that the equilibrium vapor pressure is lower over ice than over water. The formation of ice particles in supercooled clouds allows those particles to grow at the expense of liquid droplets. If sufficient growth takes place, the particles become heavy enough to fall as precipitation from clouds that otherwise would produce no precipitation. This process is known as "static" seeding.

Seeding of warm-season or tropical cumulonimbus (convective) clouds seeks to exploit the latent heat released by freezing. This strategy of "dynamic" seeding assumes that the additional latent heat adds buoyancy, strengthens updrafts, ensures more low-level convergence, and ultimately causes rapid growth of properly selected clouds. Cloud seeding chemicals may be dispersed by aircraft or by dispersion devices on the ground (generators or canisters fired from anti-aircraft guns or rockets). For release by aircraft, silver iodide flares are ignited and dispersed as an aircraft flies through the inflow of a cloud. When released by devices on the ground, the fine particles are carried downwind and upward by air currents after release.

Electric charges

Since 2021, the United Arab Emirates have been using drones equipped with a payload of electric-charge emission instruments and customized sensors that fly at low altitudes and deliver an electric charge to air molecules. This method produced a significant rainstorm in July 2021. For instance, in Al Ain it rained 6.9 millimeters on 20–21 July.

Infrared laser pulses

An electronic mechanism was tested in 2010, when infrared laser pulses were directed to the air above Berlin by researchers from the University of Geneva. The experimenters posited that the pulses would encourage atmospheric sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide to form particles that would then act as seeds.

Effectiveness

Whether cloud seeding is effective in producing a statistically significant increase in precipitation is a matter of academic debate, with contrasting results depending on the study in question and contrasting opinion among experts.

A study conducted by the United States National Academy of Sciences failed to find statistically significant support for cloud seeding's effectiveness. Based on its findings, Stanford University ecologist Jerry Bradley said: "I think you can squeeze out a little more snow or rain in some places under some conditions, but that's quite different from a program claiming to reliably increase precipitation." Data similar to that of the NAS study was acquired in a separate study conducted by the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project, but whereas the NAS study concluded that "it is difficult to show clearly that cloud seeding has a very large effect", the WWMPP study concluded that "seeding could augment the snowpack by a maximum of 3% over an entire season."

In 2003, the US National Research Council (NRC) released a report stating, "science is unable to say with assurance which, if any, seeding techniques produce positive effects. In the 55 years following the first cloud-seeding demonstrations, substantial progress has been made in understanding the natural processes that account for our daily weather. Yet scientifically acceptable proof for significant seeding effects has not been achieved".

A 2010 Tel Aviv University study claimed that the common practice of cloud seeding to improve rainfall, with materials such as silver iodide and frozen carbon dioxide, seems to have little if any impact on the amount of precipitation. A 2011 study suggested that airplanes may produce ice particles by freezing cloud droplets that cool as they flow around the tips of propellers, over wings or over jet aircraft, and thereby unintentionally seed clouds. This could have potentially serious consequences for particular hail stone formation.

In 2016, Jeff Tilley, director of weather modification at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, claimed that new technology and research has produced reliable results that make cloud seeding a dependable and affordable water supply practice for many regions. Moreover, in 1998 the American Meteorological Society held that "precipitation from supercooled orographic clouds (clouds that develop over mountains) has been seasonally increased by about 10%."

Despite the mixed scientific results, cloud seeding was attempted during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing to coax rain showers out of clouds before they reached the city in order to prevent rain during the opening and closing ceremonies. Whether this attempt was successful is a matter of dispute, with Roelof Bruintjes, who leads the National Center for Atmospheric Research's weather-modification group, remarking, "we cannot make clouds or chase clouds away".

Impact on environment and health

With an NFPA 704 health hazard rating of 2, silver iodide can cause temporary incapacitation or possible residual injury to humans and other mammals with intense or chronic exposure. But several detailed ecological studies have shown negligible environmental and health impacts. The toxicity of silver and silver compounds (from silver iodide) was shown to be of low order in some studies. These findings likely result from the minute amounts of silver generated by cloud seeding, which are about one percent of industry emissions into the atmosphere in many parts of the world, or individual exposure from tooth fillings.

Accumulations in the soil, vegetation, and surface runoff have not been large enough to measure above natural background. A 1995 environmental assessment in the Sierra Nevada of California and a 2004 independent panel of experts in Australia confirmed these earlier findings.

"In 1978, an estimated 3,000 tonnes of silver were released into the US environment. This led the US Health Services and EPA to conduct studies regarding the potential for environmental and human health hazards related to silver. These agencies and other state agencies applied the Clean Water Act of 1977 and 1987 to establish regulations on this type of pollution."

Cloud seeding over Kosciuszko National Park – a biosphere reserve – is problematic in that several rapid changes of environmental legislation were made to enable the trial. Environmentalists are concerned about the uptake of elemental silver in a highly sensitive environment affecting the pygmy possum, among other species, as well as recent high-level algal blooms in once pristine glacial lakes. Research 50 years ago and analysis by the former Snowy Mountains Authority led to the cessation of the cloud seeding program in the 1950s with non-definitive results. Formerly, cloud seeding was rejected in Australia on environmental grounds because of concerns about the pygmy possum. The claims of negative environmental impact are disputed by peer-reviewed research, as summarized by the International Weather Modification Association.

History

Beech 18 used dry ice for cloud seeding in the early postwar era US
Lockheed 18 cloud seeding from Wagga Airport in 1958 Australia
T-28A Trojan rain maker 1960 US
Curtiss P-40 rain maker 1964 US, now at Yanks Air Museum
Curtiss P-40N N1232N Weather Modification Company - cloud seeding
Harvard hail defence 1964 Canada
Cessna 210 2006 Austria
Cessna Skymaster 2015 Israel
Alpha jet 2014 Morocco

In 1891, Louis Gathmann suggested shooting liquid carbon dioxide into rain clouds to cause them to rain. During the 1930s, the Bergeron–Findeisen process theorized that supercooled water droplets present, while ice crystals are released into rain clouds, would cause rain. While researching aircraft icing, General Electric (GE)'s Vincent Schaefer and Irving Langmuir confirmed the theory. Schaefer discovered the principle of cloud seeding in July 1946 through a series of serendipitous events. Following ideas he and Langmuir generated while climbing Mt. Washington in New Hampshire, Schaefer, Langmuir's research associate, created a way of experimenting with supercooled clouds using a deep freeze unit of potential agents to stimulate ice crystal growth, i.e., table salt, talcum powder, soils, dust, and various chemical agents with minor effect. Then, on July 14, 1946, he wanted to try a few experiments at GE's Schenectady Research Lab.

He was dismayed to find that the deep freezer was not cold enough to produce a "cloud" using breath air. He decided to move the process along by adding a chunk of dry ice just to lower the temperature of his experimental chamber. To his astonishment, as soon as he breathed into the deep freezer, he noted a bluish haze, followed by an eye-popping display of millions of microscopic ice crystals, reflecting the strong light rays from the lamp illuminating a cross-section of the chamber. He instantly realized that he had discovered a way to change super-cooled water into ice crystals. The experiment was easily replicated, and he explored the temperature gradient to establish the −40 °C (−40 °F) limit for liquid water.

Within the month, Schaefer's colleague, the atmospheric scientist Bernard Vonnegut, was credited with discovering another method for "seeding" super-cooled cloud water. Vonnegut accomplished his discovery at the desk, looking up information in a basic chemistry text and then tinkering with silver and iodide chemicals to produce silver iodide. Together with Professor Henry Chessin, of SUNY Albany, a crystallographer, he co-authored a publication in Science and received a patent in 1975. Both methods were adopted for use in cloud seeding during 1946 while working for GE in the state of New York.

Schaefer's method altered a cloud's heat budget; Vonnegut's altered formative crystal structure, an ingenious property related to a good match in lattice constant between the two types of crystal. (The crystallography of ice later played a role in Vonnegut's brother Kurt Vonnegut's novel Cat's Cradle). The first attempt to modify natural clouds in the field through "cloud seeding" began during a flight that began in upstate New York on 13 November 1946. Schaefer was able to cause snow to fall near Mount Greylock in western Massachusetts after he dumped six pounds (2.5 kg) of dry ice into the target cloud from a plane after a 60-mile (100 km) easterly chase from the Schenectady County Airport.

Dry ice and silver iodide agents are effective in changing super-cooled clouds' physical chemistry, and thus useful in augmenting winter snowfall over mountains and, under certain conditions, in lightning and hail suppression. While not a new technique, hygroscopic seeding for enhancement of rainfall in warm clouds is enjoying a revival, based on positive indications from research in South Africa, Mexico, and elsewhere. The hygroscopic material most commonly used is table salt. It is postulated that hygroscopic seeding causes the droplet size spectrum in clouds to become more maritime (bigger drops) and less continental, stimulating rainfall through coalescence. From 1967 to 1972, the U.S. military's Operation Popeye cloud-seeded silver iodide to extend the monsoon season over North Vietnam, specifically the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The operation extended the monsoon period an average of 30 to 45 days in the targeted areas. The 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron carried out the operation to "make mud, not war".

One private organization that offered, during the 1970s, to conduct weather modification (cloud seeding from the ground using silver iodide flares) was Irving P. Krick and Associates of Palm Springs, California. They were contracted by Oklahoma State University in 1972 to conduct a seeding project to increase warm cloud rainfall in the Lake Carl Blackwell watershed. That lake was, at that time (1972–73), the primary water supply for Stillwater, Oklahoma, and was dangerously low. The project did not operate for a long enough time to show statistically any change from natural variations.

An attempt by the U.S. military to modify hurricanes in the Atlantic basin using cloud seeding in the 1960s was called Project STORMFURY. Scientists tested four hurricanes across eight days and observed decreased wind speeds of 10% to 30% on four of these days. They originally attributed the lack of results to faulty execution, but the results came into question because of the lack of supercooled water in the hurricane and the inability to determine if the effects were due to human intervention or the natural processes of hurricanes.

Two federal agencies have supported various weather modification research projects, which began in the early 1960s: The United States Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation; Department of the Interior) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; Department of Commerce). Reclamation sponsored several cloud-seeding research projects under the umbrella of Project Skywater from 1964 to 1988, and NOAA conducted the Atmospheric Modification Program from 1979 to 1993. The sponsored projects were carried out in several states and two countries (Thailand and Morocco), studying both winter and summer cloud seeding. From 1962 to 1988 Reclamation developed cloud seeding applied research to augment water supplies in the western U.S. The research focused on winter orographic seeding to enhance snowfall in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, and precipitation in coast ranges of southern California. In California Reclamation partnered with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) to sponsor the Serra Cooperative Pilot Project (SCPP), based in Auburn, to conduct seeding experiments in the central Sierra. The University of Nevada and Desert Research Institute provided cloud physics, physical chemistry, and other field support. The High Plains Cooperative Pilot Project (HIPLEX) focused on convective cloud seeding to increase rainfall during the growing season in Montana, Kansas, and Texas from 1974 to 1979.

In 1979, the World Meteorological Organization and other member-states led by the Government of Spain conducted a Precipitation Enhancement Project (PEP) in Spain, with inconclusive results due probably to location selection issues.

Reclamation sponsored research at several universities, including Colorado State University, the Universities of Wyoming, Washington, UCLA, Utah, Chicago, NYU, Montana, and Colorado, and research teams at Stanford, Meteorology Research Inc., and Penn State University, and the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, North Dakota, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. Cooperative efforts with state water resources agencies in California, Colorado, Montana, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Arizona assured that the applied research met state water management needs. HIPLEX also partnered with NASA, Environment Canada, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). From 2002 to 2006, in cooperation with six western states, Reclamation sponsored a small cooperative research program called the Weather Damage Modification Program.

In the U.S., funding for research has declined in the last two decades. But the Bureau of Reclamation sponsored a six-state research program from 2002 to 2006 called the "Weather Damage Modification Program". A 2003 study by the United States National Academy of Sciences urges a national research program to clear up remaining questions about weather modification's efficacy and practice.

In Australia, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) conducted major trials between 1947 and the early-1960s:

Only the trial conducted in the Snowy Mountains produced statistically significant rainfall increases over the entire experiment.

Hydro Tasmania (at the time still known as the Hydro Electric Commission) began experimenting with cloud-seeding over lake catchments in central Tasmania in the early 1960s in order to determine if their electricity-producing dams could be kept at high water levels through cloud seeding. Tasmania proved to be one place where cloud seeding was highly effective. Various trials were undertaken between 1964 and 2005, and again between 2009 and 2016, but none have taken place since then. Hydro Tasmania also undertook soil and water survey samples and found negligible trace elements of the materials used for cloud seeding (such as silver iodine), and determined it did not have a detrimental effect on the environment.

An Austrian study to use silver iodide seeding for hail prevention ran during 1981–2000, and the technique is still actively deployed there.

Asia

China

Xian MA60 cloud seeding aircraft of China Meteorological Administration

The largest cloud seeding system is in the People's Republic of China. They believe that it increases the amount of rain over several increasingly arid regions, including its capital city, Beijing, by firing silver iodide rockets into the sky where rain is desired. There is even political strife caused by neighboring regions that accuse each other of "stealing rain" using cloud seeding. China used cloud seeding in Beijing just before the 2008 Olympic Games in order to have a dry Olympic season. In February 2009, China also blasted iodide sticks over Beijing to artificially induce snowfall after four months of drought, and blasted iodide sticks over other areas of northern China to increase snowfall. The snowfall in Beijing lasted for approximately three days and led to the closure of 12 main roads around Beijing. At the end of October 2009 Beijing claimed it had its earliest snowfall since 1987 due to cloud seeding. According to "research paper from Tsinghua University, the Chinese weather authorities used weather modification to ensure the sky was clear and lower air pollution" on July 1, 2021. The Chinese Communist party celebrated its centenary on July 1 with a major celebration. The celebration took place in Tiananmen Square. The paper was published on November 26, 2021 in a peer-review journal called Environment Science (via South China Morning Post). The research shows that the Chinese government used cloud-seeding techniques to force rainfall the evening before the celebration event. This rainfall lowered the amount of PM2.5 pollution by more than two-thirds. That helped improve the air quality at the time from "moderate" to "good".

India

In India, cloud seeding operations were conducted during the years 1983, 1984–87, and 1993–94 by the Tamil Nadu Government due to severe drought. In the years 2003 and 2004 Karnataka government initiated cloud seeding. Cloud seeding operations were also conducted in the same year through US-based Weather Modification Inc. in the state of Maharashtra.

The company Srishti Aviation is actively involved in air defense with two Cessna 340 aircraft for its cloud seeding operations. On the ground at the radar facility the Meteorologist assigns the pilots the cloud that has a high concentration of super cooled liquid water. The aircraft will find the altitude where the temperatures are about -5 °C. This is the altitude at which the seeding agent is most active.

Pakistan

Pakistan has undergone its first-ever artificial rain experiment using cloud seeding, in a move carried out with the help of the United Arab Emirates.there was drizzle in 'at least 10 areas' of Lahore, consistently ranked the most polluted city in the world.

On Friday, November 15, 2024, Pakistan successfully conducted a cloud seeding operation using locally developed technology, resulting in artificial rainfall to tackle the region’s smog crisis. The Meteorological Department confirmed rainfall in Jhelum, Gujar Khan, Chakwal, and Talagang, attributing it to the cloud seeding effort. Cloud seeding was conducted around 2 p.m., with subsequent rainfall observed within hours in Jhelum and Gujar Khan.

Indonesia

In Jakarta, cloud seeding was used to minimize flood risk in anticipation of heavy floods in 2013, according to the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology.

Iran

In 1946, the Iranian government tried to fertilize Iran's clouds with the help of Americans, but it was unsuccessful. Then in 1947, in Article 19 of the Law on Water and its Nationalization, the then Ministry of Water and Electricity was obliged to provide the water needed by the country in various ways, including cloud fertilization. Accordingly, the Ministry of Energy between 1953 and 1957, in cooperation with a Canadian company and using aircraft and silver iodide compound fertilized the clouds that were over the Karaj and Jajrud dam area.

After the revolution of 1978, in the years 1989 to 1995, cloud fertilization was carried out in a scattered manner using ground generators in the heights of Shirkuh, Yazd. Then, with the announcement of the Minister of Energy in February 1996, the National Center for Cloud Fertility Research and Studies was established in Yazd and officially started working in 1997.

Israel

Israel conducted experimental cloud seeding for seven years from 2014 to 2021. The practice involved emitting silver iodide from airplanes and ground stations and took place only in the northern parts of the country. Israel stopped the rain enhancement project in 2021 due to the experiment data showing that the practice was largely ineffective and expensive, and because there had been some recent years of unrelated significant rainfall.

Kuwait

To counter drought and a growing population in a desert region, Kuwait is embarking on its own cloud seeding program, with the local Environment Public Authority conducting a study to gauge its viability locally.

United Arab Emirates

Beechcraft King Air C90 used for cloud seeding operations in UAE
Cloud seeding in the United Arab Emirates is a weather modification technique used by the government to address water challenges in the country. Cloud seeding is also referred to as man made precipitation and artificial rain making. The United Arab Emirates is one of the first countries in the Persian Gulf region to use cloud seeding technology. UAE scientists use cloud seeding technology to supplement the country's water insecurity, which stems from the extremely hot climate. They use weather radars to continuously monitor the atmosphere of the country. Forecasters and scientists have estimated that cloud seeding operations can enhance rainfall by as much as 30-35% percent in a clear atmosphere, and up to 10-15% in a more humid atmosphere. This practice has caused concerns regarding the impact on the environment because it is difficult to predict its long-term global implications.

Southeast Asia

In Southeast Asia, open-burning haze pollutes the regional environment. Cloud seeding has been used to improve the air quality by encouraging rainfall. On 20 June 2013, Indonesia said it will begin cloud-seeding operations following reports from Singapore and Malaysia that smog caused by forest and bush fires in Sumatra have disrupted daily activities in the neighboring countries. On 25 June 2013, hailstones were reported to have fallen over some parts of Singapore. Despite NEA denials, some believe that the hailstones are the result of cloud seeding in Indonesia.

Malaysia

In Malaysia, cloud seeding was first used in 1988 for three purposes: filling up dams, lessening the effects of haze, and fighting forest fires. In 2015, cloud seeding was done daily in Malaysia since the haze began in early-August. Johor Water Regulatory Body is focus to produce rain over dams with critically low water levels. They use Cessna 340 with tubes of ioidise salt their operation base is at Senai Airport WMKJ.

Thailand

CASA C-212 Aviocar of KASET Thailand

The Thailand Royal Rainmaking Project (Thai: โครงการฝนหลวง, RTGSkhrongkan fon luang) was initiated in November 1955 by King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Thai farmers repeatedly suffered the effects of drought. The king resolved to do something about it and proposed a solution to the dearth of rain: artificial rainmaking, or cloud seeding. The program is run by the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation. Thailand started a rain-making project in the late-1950s, known today as the Royal Rainmaking Project. Its first efforts scattered sea salt in the air to catch the humidity and dry ice to condense the humidity to form clouds. The project took about ten years of experiments and refinement. The first field operations began in 1969 above Khao Yai National Park. Since then the Thai government claims that rainmaking has been successfully applied throughout Thailand and neighboring countries. The king received recognition for the Royal Rainmaking Project from the Eureka organization in 2001 for an invention that is beneficial to the world. In 2009, Jordan received permission from Thailand to use the technique. On 12 October 2005 the European Patent Office granted to King Bhumibol Adulyadej the patent EP 1 491 088 Weather modification by royal rainmaking technology. The budget of the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation in FY2019 was 2,224 million baht.

Vietnam

In Vietnam, during the leadup to and initial stages of the Battle of Điện Biên Phủ in 1954, the French Far East Expeditionary Corps looked into the possibility of using cloud seeding to impede Việt Minh flow of supplies through Route Provinciale 41, a dirt road leading into Điện Biên Phủ that would become more difficult to navigate during the rainy season. General Henri Navarre authorized research into using cloud seeding this way on March 16, just before the outbreak of the battle, and a test commenced the following month. Results were disappointing; while it did not take long for the rain clouds to form and release precipitation, they often drifted away from Route Provinciale 41 in the process, reducing their ability to hinder Việt Minh logistics.

Sri Lanka

In January 2019, the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) and Ministry of Power, Energy and Business Development signed an agreement for a cloud seeding project, created in response to lower water levels for hydroelectric power due to dry weather. In February of that year, a group of officials from the SLAF, Ceylon Electricity Board, and meteorology and irrigation departments were sent to Thailand to study rainmaking projects carried out by the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation. On March 22, a Harbin Y-12 flew over the Maskeliya Reservoir at 8000 feet, dispersing cloud seeding chemicals. Rain arrived the next day on March 23, though project members had expected it to appear earlier on the 22nd. News First proclaimed that the pilot project had "proven to be a success", while Mongabay described it as a "failed attempt" that had "fallen short" and highlighted various climate experts who recommended that the government conduct more research into the project's potential environmental effects before proceeding further.

North America

United States

In the United States, cloud seeding is used to increase precipitation in areas experiencing drought, to reduce the size of hailstones that form in thunderstorms, and to reduce the amount of fog in and around airports. In the summer of 1948, the usually humid city of Alexandria, Louisiana, under Mayor Carl B. Close, seeded a cloud with dry ice at the municipal airport during a drought; quickly 0.85 inches (22 mm) of rain fell.

Major ski resorts occasionally use cloud seeding to induce snowfall. Eleven western states and one Canadian province (Alberta) had ongoing weather modification operational programs in 2012. In 2006, an $8.8 million project began in Wyoming to examine cloud seeding's effects on snowfall over Wyoming's Medicine Bow, Sierra Madre, and Wind River mountain ranges.

In Oregon, Portland General Electric used Hood River seeding to produce snow for hydro power in 1974-1975. The results were substantial, but caused an undue burden on the locals, who experienced overpowering rainfall, causing street collapses and mudslides. PGE discontinued its seeding practices the next year.

In 1978, the U.S. signed the Environmental Modification Convention, which bans the use of weather modification for hostile purposes.

As of 2022, seven agencies in California are conducting cloud seeding operations using silver iodide, including the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, which began employing the technique in 1969 to increase the water supply to its hydroelectric power plants, and reported that it results in "an average of 3 to 10% increase in [Sierra Nevada] snowpack".

Canada

During the sixties, Irving P. Krick & Associates operated a successful cloud seeding operation in the area around Calgary, Alberta. This utilized both aircraft and ground-based generators that pumped silver iodide into the atmosphere in an attempt to reduce the threat of hail damage. Ralph Langeman, Lynn Garrison, and Stan McLeod, all ex-members of the RCAF's 403 Squadron, attending the University of Alberta, spent their summers flying hail suppression. The Alberta Hail Suppression Project is continuing with C$3 million a year in funding from insurance companies to reduce hail damage in southern Alberta.

Europe

Partenavia P.68 Hagelflieger - Germany

Bulgaria

Bulgaria operates a national network of hail protection, silver iodide rocket sites, strategically located in agricultural areas such as the rose valley. Each site protects an area of 10 sq. km, the density of the site clusters is such that at least 2 sites will be able to target a single hail cloud, initial detection of hail cloud formation to firing of the rockets is typically 7–10 minutes in its entire process with a view to seed the formation of much smaller hailstones, high in the atmosphere that will melt before reaching ground level.

Data collated since the 1960s suggests huge agricultural sector losses are avoided yearly with the protection system, unseeded the hail will flatten entire regions, with seeding this can be reduced to minor leaf damage from the smaller hailstones that failed to melt.

France and Spain

Cloud seeding began in France during the 1950s with the intent of reducing hail damage to crops. The ANELFA project consists of local agencies acting within a non-profit organization. A similar project in Spain is managed by the Consorcio por la Lucha Antigranizo de Aragon. The success of the French program was supported by analysis made by Jean Dessens based on insurance data; that of the Spanish program in studies conducted by the Spanish Agricultural Ministry. However, Jean Dessens's results were heavily criticized and doubt was cast on the effectiveness of ground generator seeding.

Russia

The Soviet Union created a specifically designed version of the Antonov An-30 aerial survey aircraft, the An-30M Sky Cleaner, with eight containers of solid carbon dioxide in the cargo area plus external pods containing meteorological cartridges that could be fired into clouds. Russian government spends millions on 'cloud seeding' technology to ensure it doesn't rain on May Day public holiday. A single contractor was hired to employ a technique which involves dispersing clouds and forcing them to rain before the time they naturally would – dropping the rain on other places and at other times, so they don’t affect specific events. In 2020, Russia used cloud seeding to help fight Siberian forest fires. The Russian government has also used cloud seeding technology in Crimea to alleviate drought which was caused as a result of Ukraine blocking the Crimean Canal. Russia published a review of the weather electromagnetic correction technology in 2015, which was developed in the 1980s in the USSR and shares technology with India. 

Germany

In Germany civic engagement societies organize cloud seeding on a region level. A registered society maintains aircraft for cloud seeding to protect agricultural areas from hail in the district Rosenheim, the district Miesbach, the district Traunstein (all located in southern Bavaria, Germany) and the district Kufstein (located in Tyrol, Austria).

Cloud seeding is also used in Baden-Württemberg, a federal state particularly known for its winegrowing culture. The districts of Ludwigsburg, Heilbronn, Schwarzwald-Baar and Rems-Murr, as well as the cities Stuttgart and Esslingen participate in a program to prevent the formation of hailstones. Reports from a local insurance agency suggest that the cloud seeding activities in the Stuttgart area have prevented about 5 million euro in damages in 2015 while the project's annual upkeep is priced at only 325.000 euro. Another society for cloud seeding operates in the district of Villingen-Schwenningen.

Austria

Cessna 210B Hagelflieger Austria

Austria has two hail defense organizations: Steirische Hagel Abwehr, with four aircraft: Cessna 182 and Südflug with three aircraft: Cessna 150L, Cessna 182P, Partenavia P.68 at Graz Airport

Slovenia

Slovenia's oldest aeroclub Letalski center Maribor carries air defense against hail as a specialized EASA operation. The Cessna TU206G Turbo Stationair 6 II is equipped with external aggregates and flares for flying. Three crew members work in the operation. Two are the pilots in the plane and the third is the radar operator on the ground. The purpose of the defense is to prevent damage to farmland and cities in the areas of Styria and Prekmurje - aircraft hail suppression. They have been carrying out defense since 1983. Silver iodide is used as a reagent. The base is at Maribor Edvard Rusjan Airport. The activity is financed by local communities and the Ministry of Agriculture, it has great support among people and farmers from all over the countryside.

United Kingdom

Project Cumulus was a UK government initiative to investigate weather manipulation, in particular through cloud seeding experiments, operational between 1949 and 1952. A conspiracy theory has circulated that the Lynmouth flood of 1952 was caused by secret cloud seeding experiments carried out by the Royal Air Force. However, meteorologist Philip Eden has given several reasons why "it is preposterous to blame the Lynmouth flood on such experiments".

Australia

Cloud seeding at Corryong, Victoria Cessna 320 1966
Cessna 441 Conquest II used to conduct cloud-seeding flights in the Australian state of Tasmania

In Australia, summer activities of CSIRO and Hydro Tasmania over central and western Tasmania between the 1960s and the present day appear to have been successful. Seeding over the Hydro-Electricity Commission catchment area on the Central Plateau achieved rainfall increases as high as 30 percent in autumn. The Tasmanian experiments were so successful that the Commission has regularly undertaken seeding ever since in mountainous parts of the State.

In 2004, Snowy Hydro Limited began a trial of cloud seeding to assess the feasibility of increasing snow precipitation in the Snowy Mountains in Australia. The test period, originally scheduled to end in 2009, was later extended to 2014. The New South Wales (NSW) Natural Resources Commission, responsible for supervising the cloud seeding operations, believes that the trial may have difficulty establishing statistically whether cloud seeding operations are increasing snowfall. This project was discussed at a summit in Narrabri, NSW on 1 December 2006. The summit met with the intention of outlining a proposal for a 5-year trial, focusing on Northern NSW.

The various implications of such a widespread trial were discussed, drawing on the combined knowledge of several worldwide experts, including representatives from the Tasmanian Hydro Cloud Seeding Project however does not make reference to former cloud seeding experiments by the then-Snowy Mountains Authority, which rejected weather modification. The trial required changes to NSW environmental legislation in order to facilitate placement of the cloud seeding apparatus. The modern experiment is not supported for the Australian Alps.

In December 2006, the Queensland government of Australia announced a $7.6 million in funding for "warm cloud" seeding research to be conducted jointly by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the United States National Center for Atmospheric Research. Outcomes of the study are hoped to ease continuing drought conditions in the states South East region.

In March 2020, scientists from the Sydney Institute of Marine Science and Southern Cross University trialled marine cloud seeding off the coast of Queensland, Australia, with the aim to protect Great Barrier Reef from coral bleaching and dieoff during marine heatwaves. Using two high-pressure turbines, the team sprayed microscopic droplets of saltwater into the air. These then evaporate leaving behind very small salt crystals, which water vapour clings to, creating clouds that reflect the sun more effectively.

Africa

In Mali and Niger, cloud seeding is also used on a national scale. In 1985 the Moroccan Government started with a Cloud seeding program called 'Al-Ghait'. The system was first used in Morocco in 1999; it has also been used between 1999 and 2002 in Burkina Faso and from 2005 in Senegal. Cloud seeding experiments and operations were also conducted in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) between 1968 and 1980.

Existing international legislation

The Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD) is the only international framework related to the regulation of weather and climate modification technologies. Developed after cloud-seeding operations were conducted during the Vietnam War and the Cold War, the convention's scope of application solely encompasses military or any other hostile uses of weather modification technologies. Indeed, the use of weather modification programs for peaceful purposes is not prohibited by the treaty. ENMOD has been criticised for its many weaknesses, notably regarding the vagueness and ambiguity of notions leaving room for various interpretations.

Ownership of clouds

Given the growing attractiveness of weather modification programs, the legal framework offered by ENMOD is arguably insufficient, as the question of "ownership" is not answered. A 1948 article in the Stanford Law Review stated that attributing a "legal title to a cloud would be ridiculous" due to the distinct nature of clouds, their perpetual change of form and location, their emergence, disappearance and renewal. Similarly, Brooks considers private ownership of clouds as "nonsense" as control is limited to the short moment of the cloud being above somebody's land. Quilleré-Majzoub dismisses the concept of ownership of clouds altogether, given their specific nature, rendering the idea of a cloud ever belonging to somebody unsubstantiated. Indeed, clouds are beyond occupancy – similar to air, running water, the sea and animals ferae naturae – and should thus be considered as common property. Based on this assumption, it follows that a distinction between res communis, belonging to everybody and thus necessitating international regulation, and res nullis, belonging to nobody with states serving themselves as they please, is more suitable. Although water is generally considered as res nullis in international law, there is strong pressure to acknowledging it as res communis, but cloud moisture does currently not have a clearly defined status. It is thus suggested that international law should elaborate a jurisdictional regime that takes into account both the particular nature of clouds and the implications of new technologies.

The picture changes once the moisture in the clouds is made accessible through artificial rainmaking technologies as the rainwater can now be occupied. Typically, regarding naturally occurring precipitation, the first to reduce it to possession, normally the landowner, will gain rights in it as long as no existing rights are violated. Given that this benefit is accorded by nature, these natural rights should not allow the landowner to claim artificially induced rain. California legislation binds water generated through seeding to existing surface water rights and groundwater regulations, considering the produced water "natural supply". Yet courts could decide that the induced rain should be designated as "additional precipitation", permitting the cloud-seeding entity to claim a portion of this generated water. This approach would also face challenges, given the difficulty of determining the fraction of extra water procured by cloud seeding.

Conspiracy theories

Cloud seeding has been the focus of many theories based on the belief that governments manipulate the weather in order to control various conditions, including global warming, populations, military weapons testing, public health, and flooding. This speculation has been fueled in part by government interventions and programs like Operation Popeye.

A 2016 classified ad placed by Los Angeles County's Department of Public Works in the Pasadena Star News sparked claims that widespread weather modification was being confirmed. The department followed up with a clarification that it was only describing cloud seeding, used as an anti-drought measure intermittently for more than half a century in Los Angeles.

Absurdity

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absurdity...