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Friday, January 31, 2025

Christian population growth

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_population_growth

Christian population growth
is the population growth of the global Christian community. According to a 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there were more than 2.2 billion Christians around the world in 2010, more than three times as many as the 600 million recorded in 1910. However, this rate of growth is slower than the overall population growth over the same time period. In 2020, Pew estimated the number of Christians worldwide to be around 2.38 billion. According to various scholars and sources, high birth rates and conversions in the Global South were cited as the reasons for the Christian population growth. In 2023, it was reported: "There will be over 2.38 billion Christians worldwide by the middle of 2023 and around 2.9 billion by 2050, according to a report published by the Pew research centre.

Summary

Demographics of major traditions within Christianity (Pew Research Center, 2010 data)
Tradition Followers % of the Christian population % of the world population Follower dynamics Dynamics in- and outside Christianity
Catholicism 1,094,610,000 50.1 15.9 Increase Growing Steady Stable
Protestantism 800,640,000 36.7 11.6 Increase Growing Increase Growing
Orthodoxy 260,380,000 11.9 3.8 Decrease Shrinking Decrease Shrinking
Other denominations 28,430,000 1.3 0.4 Increase Growing Increase Growing
Christianity 2,184,060,000 100 31.7 Steady Stable Steady Stable

World Christianity by tradition in 2024 as per World Christian Database

  Catholic (48.6%)
  Protestant (39.8%)
  Orthodox (11.1%)
  Other (0.5%)
Regional median ages of Christians compared with overall median ages (Pew Research Center, 2010 data)

Christian median age in region (years) Regional median age (years)
World 30
Sub-Saharan Africa 19 18
Latin America-Caribbean 27 27
Asia-Pacific 28 29
Middle East-North Africa 29 24
North America 39 37
Europe 42 40

The Christian fertility rate is 2.7 children per woman, which is higher than the global average fertility rate of 2.5. Globally, Christians were only slightly older (median age of 30) than the global average median age of 28 in 2010. According to Pew Research religious switching is projected to have a modest impact on changes in the Christian population. According to various scholars and sources, Pentecostalism is the fastest-growing religious movement in the world; this growth is primarily due to religious conversion to Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity.

According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, approximately 2.7 million converting to Christianity from another religion, World Christian Encyclopedia also cited that Christianity rank at first place in net gains through religious conversion. While according to "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion", approximately 15.5 million converting to Christianity from another religion, while approximately 11.7 million leave Christianity, and most of them become irreligious, resulting in a net gain of 3.8 million. Christianity earns about 65.1 million people due to factors such as birth rate and religious conversion while losing 27.4 million people due to factors such as death rate and religious apostasy. Most of the net growth in the numbers of Christians are in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

Fertility rate

The Christian fertility rate has varied throughout history. The Christian fertility rate also varies from country to country. In the 20-year period from 1989 to 2009, the average world fertility rate decreased from 3.50 to 2.58, a fall of 0.92 children per woman, or 26%. The weighted average fertility rate for Christian nations decreased in the same period from 3.26 to 2.58, a fall of 0.68 children per woman, or 21%. The weighted average fertility rate for Muslim nations decreased in the same period from 5.17 to 3.23, a fall of 1.94 children per woman, or 38%. While Muslims have an average of 3.1 children per woman—the highest rate of all religious groups—Christians are second, with 2.7 children per woman.

The gap in fertility between the Christian- and Muslim-dominated nations fell from 67% in 1990 to 17% in 2010. According to a study published by the Pew Research Center in 2017, births to Muslims between the years of 2010 and 2015 made up an estimated 31% of all babies born around the world. By the Pew Research Center's estimates, the Muslim fertility rate and Christian fertility rate will converge by 2040.

Country Fertility rate
(2019)
(births/woman)
Percent Christian
 Ecuador 2.40 94%
 East Timor 3.94 99%
 Armenia 1.76 98.6%
 Equatorial Guinea 4.43 92%
 Moldova 1.27 95.3%
 Venezuela 2.25 88.0%
 Greece 1.35 90%

Conversion

  • According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, approximately 2.7 million convert to Christianity annually from another religion; World Christian Encyclopedia also stated that Christianity ranks in first place in net gains through religious conversion. While, according to book "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion", which published by the professor of Christian mission Charles E. Farhadian, and the professor of psychology Lewis Ray Rambo, between 1990 and 2000, approximately 1.9 million people converted to Christianity from another religion, with Christianity ranking first in net gains through religious conversion.
  • According to "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion", in mid-2005 approximately 15.5 million converted to Christianity from another religion, approximately 11.7 million left Christianity, and most of them became irreligious, resulting in a net gain of 3.8 million. Christianity added about 65.1 million people due to factors such as birth rate and religious conversion, while it lost 27.4 million people due to factors such as death rate and religious apostasy in mid-2005. Most of the net growth in the numbers of Christians is in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
  • According to scholar Philip Jenkins Christianity was growing rapidly in China and some other Asian countries and sub-Saharan Africa around 2002.
  • According to various scholars and sources, Pentecostalism is the fastest-growing religious movement in the world; this growth is primarily due to religious conversion to Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity. According to Pulitzer Center 35,000 people become Pentecostal or "Born again" every day. According to scholar Keith Smith of Georgia State University "many scholars claim that Pentecostalism is the fastest growing religious phenomenon in human history", and according to scholar Peter L. Berger of Boston University "the spread of Pentecostal Christianity may be the fastest growing movement in the history of religion".
  • According to a 2012 report by the Singapore Management University, more people in Southeast Asia were converting to Christianity, and these new converts are mostly Chinese business managers. Scholars Juliette Koning and Heidi Dahles of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam stated that there was a "rapid expansion of charismatic Christianity from the 1980s onwards. Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia were said to have the fastest-growing Christian communities and the majority of the new believers are "upwardly mobile, urban, middle-class Chinese". Asia has the second largest Pentecostal-charismatic Christians of any continent, with the number growing from 10 million to 135 million between 1970 and 2000". According to scholar Wang Zuoa, 500,000 Chinese convert to Protestantism annually. According to scholar Todd Hartch of Eastern Kentucky University, by 2005, around 6 million Africans converted to Christianity annually.
  • Conversion into Christianity has significantly increased among Korean, Chinese, and Japanese in the United States. In 2012, the percentage of Christians in these communities were 71%, 30% and 37% respectively.
  • Due to conversion, the number of Chinese Christians increased significantly from 4 million before 1949 to 67 million in 2010.
  • It's been reported also that increasing numbers of young people or educated people are becoming Christians in several countries such as China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.
  • The 2015 Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census study published by Baylor University institute for studies of religion estimates that 10.2 million Muslims converted to Christianity based on global missionary data. Countries with the largest numbers of Muslims converted to Christianity according to this study include Indonesia (6,500,000), Nigeria (600,000), Iran (500,000 versus only 500 in 1979), the United States (450,000), Ethiopia (400,000) and Algeria (380,000). Indonesia is home to the largest Christian community made up of converts from their former Islamic faith; according to various sources, since the mid and late 1960s, between two million and 2.5 million Muslims converted to Christianity.
  • According to the Council on Foreign Relations, in 2007 experts estimated that thousands of Muslims in the Western world were converting to Christianity annually, but did not publicize their conversions due to fear of retribution.

By branches

Catholic Church

  • Church membership in 2019 was 1.34 billion people (18% of the global population at the time), increasing from the 1950 figure of 437 million and 654 million in 1970. On 31 December 2008, membership was 1.166 billion, an increase of 11.54% over the same date in 2000, and slightly greater than the rate of increase of the world population (10.77%). The increase was 33.02% in Africa, but only 1.17% in Europe. It was 15.91% in Asia, 11.39% in Oceania, and 10.93% in Americas. As a result, Catholics were 17.77% of the total population in Africa, 63.10% in Americas, 3.05% in Asia, 39.97% in Europe, 26.21% in Oceania, and 17.40% of the world population. Of the world's Catholics, the proportion living in Africa grew from 12.44% in 2000 to 14.84% in 2008, while those living in Europe fell from 26.81% to 24.31%. However, Catholic numbers have grown in Scandinavia where the Catholics in Nordic dioceses have tripled or even quadrupled. For example, in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland, 330,000 Catholics have now registered in their dioceses. Membership of the Catholic Church is attained through baptism, and from 1983 to 2009, if someone formally left the Church, that fact was noted in the register of the person's baptism.
  • Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in a 2008 interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us." He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4 percent of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2 percent. "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer", the monsignor said, though Africa and parts of Asia are the exception. If the UN report in 2018 is on target, Africa's population will grow to 4.5 billion by 2100, adding to all African religious groups. Muslims in 2010 represented as much as 23.4% of the total world population and this is expected to increase to 26.3% by 2030. In 2016, the global Catholic population was projected to grow to 1.63 billion in 2050.

Eastern Orthodoxy

Protestantism

  • According to Mark Jürgensmeyer of the University of California, popular Protestantism is one of the most dynamic religious movements in the contemporary world. Changes in worldwide Protestantism over the last century have been significant. Since 1900, due primarily to conversion, Protestantism has spread rapidly in Africa, Asia, Oceania and Latin America.
  • There are more than 1.17 billion Protestants worldwide, among approximately 2.4 billion Christians. In 2010, a total of more than 800 million included 300 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 260 million in the Americas, 140 million in Asia-Pacific region, 100 million in Europe and 2 million in Middle East-North Africa. Protestants account for nearly forty percent of Christians worldwide and more than one tenth of the total human population.
  • Protestantism is growing in Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America, Muslim world, and Oceania, while remaining stable or declining in Anglo America and Europe, with some exceptions such as France, where it was nearly eradicated after the abolition of the Edict of Nantes by the Edict of Fontainebleau and the following persecution of Huguenots, but now is claimed to be stable in number or even growing slightly and the Spain, where the Protestantism is growing faster than other religious groups. According to some, Russia is another country to see a Protestant revival.
  • According to various scholars and sources, Pentecostalism is the fastest-growing religious movement in the world; this growth is primarily due to religious conversion to Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity. According to Pulitzer Center 35,000 people become Pentecostal or "Born again" every day. According to scholar Keith Smith of Georgia State University "many scholars claim that Pentecostalism is the fastest growing religious phenomenon in human history", and according to scholar Peter L. Berger of Boston University "the spread of Pentecostal Christianity may be the fastest growing movement in the history of religion".

By continent

  • According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.84%), the Baháʼí Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%) and Christianity (1.32%). High birth rates and conversions in the global South were cited as the reasons for the Christian population growths.
  • The U.S. Center for World Mission stated a growth rate of Christianity at 2.3% for the period 1970 to 1996 (slightly higher than the world population growth rate at the time). This increased the claimed percentage of adherents of Christianity from 33.7% to 33.9%.
  • The World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the growth rate of Christianity at 1.32%. High birth rates and conversions were cited as the main reasons.
  • Using data from the period 2000–2005 the 2006 Christian World Database estimated that by number of new adherents, Christianity was the fastest growing religion in the world with 30,360,000 new adherents in 2006. This was followed by Islam with 23,920,000 and Hinduism with 13,224,000 estimated new adherents in the same period.
  • According to 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there are more than 2.2 billion Christians around the world in 2010, up from about 600 million in 1910.
  • The 2015 "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census" estimates 10,283,700 Muslim converted to Christianity around the world.
  • On 2 April 2015, the Pew Research Center published a Demographic Study about "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050" with projections regarding Christianity. The projection begins with 2010 statistics when "Christianity was by far the world's largest religion, with an estimated 2.2 billion adherents, nearly a third (31%) of all 6.9 billion people on Earth. Islam was second, with 1.6 billion adherents, or 23% of the global population."
Projected growth of Christianity by 2050
Some of the projections are as follows:
  1. Over the 2010-2050 period, Christians will remain the largest religious group with 30.7% of the world's population. However, Islam will grow faster and become 29.7% of the world's population. Therefore, by 2050 there will be 2.8 billion Muslims compared to 2.9 billion Christians.
  2. "In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050".
  3. "Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa".
Reasons given for the projected growth
Some of the reasons the Study gives are as follows:
  1. The change in the world's religious is "driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world's major religions, as well as by people switching faiths".
  2. Fertility rates. "Religions with many adherents in developing countries, where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling, are likely to grow quickly." Therefore, much of the growth of Christianity is projected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, Christians have a birth rate of 2.7 children per woman. But Muslims have a higher rate, namely, an average of 3.1 children per woman. This differential is one of the reasons that the Muslim population is growing faster than the Christian.
  3. Size of youth population. "In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's total population (27%) was under the age of 15." Christian youth under 15 were the same as the 27% global average. But an even higher percentage of Muslims (34%) were younger than 15. This higher youth population is one of the reasons that from 2010 to 2050 Muslims are projected to grow faster than Christians.
  4. Size of old population. In 2010, "11% of the world's population was at least 60 years old", 14% of the Christian population was over 60 years old, but only 7% of Muslims were over 60. This is another reason that Muslims are projected to grow faster than Christians.
  5. Switching. A loss of 66 million Christians is projected to come through switching. Most of the loss is projected to come from Christians "joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated".
The whole Pew Research Center can be read by clicking The Future of World Religions.

Africa

  • Christianity has been estimated to be growing rapidly in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In Africa, for instance, in 1900, there were only 8.7 million adherents of Christianity; now there are 390 million, and it is expected that by 2025 there will be 600 million Christians in Africa. The number of Catholics in Africa has increased from one million in 1902 to 329,882,000. From 2015 to 2016 alone, Africa saw an increase of 49,767,000 Catholics, a larger increase than any other continent.
  • According to scholar Todd Hartch of Eastern Kentucky University, by 2005, around 6 million Africans converted to Christianity annually.
  • According to scholar R.V. Dmitriev, over 3.3 million African converted to Christianity in 2010.
  • A 2015 study estimates 2,161,000 Muslim Africans that convert to Christianity.

Algeria

  • Since 1960 a growing number of Algerian Muslims are converting to Christianity.
  • Converts to Christianity may be investigated and searched by the authorities. Conversions to Christianity have been most common in Kabylie, especially in the wilaya of Tizi-Ouzou.
  • A 2015 study estimates 380,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Algeria.

Benin

  • A 2015 study estimates 40,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Benin.

Burkina Faso

  • A 2015 study estimates 200,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Burkina Faso.

Burundi

  • A 2015 study estimates 2,200 Muslims converted to Christianity in Burundi.

Cameroon

  • A 2015 study estimates 90,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Cameroon.

Central African Republic

Egypt

  • A 2015 study estimates some 14,000 Muslims who converted to Christianity in Egypt.

Ethiopia

  • A 2015 study estimates 400,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Ethiopia most belonging to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.

Libya

  • A 2015 study estimated some 1,500 believers in Christ from a Muslim background living in the country.

Morocco

  • Since 1960 a growing number of Moroccan Muslims are converting to Christianity.
  • On 27 March 2010, the Moroccan magazine TelQuel stated that thousands of Moroccans had converted to Christianity. Pointing out the absence of official data, Service de presse Common Ground cites unspecified sources that stated that about 5,000 Moroccans became Christians between 2005 and 2010. According to the International Religious Freedom Report for 2014 estimate that there may be as many as 8,000 Christian citizens throughout the country, but many reportedly do not meet regularly due to fear of government surveillance and social persecution.
  • According to different estimates, there are about 25,000-45,000 Moroccan Christians of Berber or Arab descent mostly converted from Islam. Other sources give a number of a bit more than 1,000. A popular Christian program by Brother Rachid has led many former Muslims in North Africa and the Middle East to convert to Christianity. His programs have been credited with assisting in the conversion of over 150,000 former Muslims to Christianity in Morocco.

Nigeria

  • The percentage of Christians in Nigeria grew from 21.4% in 1953 to 48.2% in 2011.
  • ِA 2015 study estimates some 600,000 believers in Christ are from a Muslim background living in Nigeria.

South Africa

  • In South Africa, Pentecostalism has grown from 0.2% in 1951 to 7.6% in 2001.

Tunisia

  • International Religious Freedom Report for 2007 estimate thousands of Tunisian Muslims who convert to Christianity.

Americas

Argentina

  • A 2015 study estimates some 2,200 Christian believers from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.
  • Data from 2013, show that 64,000 Argentine Jews identify themselves as Christians.

Canada

  • According to 1991/2001/2011-Census, the number of Christians in Canada has decreased from 22.5 million to 22.1 million.
  • A 2015 study estimates some 43,000 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in Canada, most of whom belong to the evangelical tradition.

Mexico

United States

The United States government does not collect religious data in its census. The survey below, the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008, was a random digit-dialed telephone survey of 54,461 American residential households in the contiguous United States. The 1990 sample size was 113,723; 2001 sample size was 50,281.

Adult respondents were asked the open-ended question, "What is your religion, if any?" Interviewers did not prompt or offer a suggested list of potential answers. The religion of the spouse or partner was also asked. If the initial answer was "Protestant" or "Christian" further questions were asked to probe which particular denomination. About one-third of the sample was asked more detailed demographic questions.

Among the Asian population in the United States, conversion into Christianity is significantly increasing among Korean, Chinese, and Japanese. By 2012 the percentage of Christians in these communities was 71%, 31%, and 38% respectively.

Data from the Pew Research Center states that, as of 2013, about 1.6 million adult American Jews identify themselves as Christians, most as Protestants. According to the same data, most of the Jews who identify themselves as some sort of Christian (1.6 million) were raised as Jewish or are Jews by ancestry. According to a 2014 study by the Pew Research Center, 19% of those who say they were raised Jewish in the United States, consider themselves Christian.

According to Pew Research, Christianity loses more people than it gains from religious conversion. It found that 23% of Americans raised as Christians no longer identified with Christianity, whereas 6% of current Christians converted. This was in contrast to Islam in America, where the number of people who leave the religion is roughly equal to the number who convert to it. The National Catholic Register claims that in 2015 there were 450,000 American Muslim converts to Christianity and that 20,000 Muslims convert to Christianity annually in the United States. According to scholar Rob Scott of University of Tasmania in 2010 there were "approximately 180,000 Arab Americans and about 130,000 Iranian Americans who converted from Islam to Christianity".

Religious Self-Identification of the U.S. Adult Population: 1990, 2001, 2008

Figures are not adjusted for refusals to reply; investigators suspect refusals are possibly more representative of "no religion" than any other group.

Source:ARIS 2008
Group
1990
adults
x 1,000
2001
adults
x 1,000
2008
adults
x 1,000

Numerical
Change
1990–
2008
as %
of 1990
1990
% of
adults
2001
% of
adults
2008
% of
adults
change
in % of
total
adults
1990–
2008
Adult population, total 175,440 207,983 228,182 30.1%



Adult population, Responded 171,409 196,683 216,367 26.2% 97.7% 94.6% 94.8% −2.9%
Total Christian 151,225 159,514 173,402 14.7% 86.2% 76.7% 76.0% −10.2%
Catholic 46,004 50,873 57,199 24.3% 26.2% 24.5% 25.1% −1.2%
non-Catholic Christian 105,221 108,641 116,203 10.4% 60.0% 52.2% 50.9% −9.0%
Baptist 33,964 33,820 36,148 6.4% 19.4% 16.3% 15.8% −3.5%
Mainline Christian 32,784 35,788 29,375 −10.4% 18.7% 17.2% 12.9% −5.8%
Methodist 14,174 14,039 11,366 −19.8% 8.1% 6.8% 5.0% −3.1%
Lutheran 9,110 9,580 8,674 −4.8% 5.2% 4.6% 3.8% −1.4%
Presbyterian 4,985 5,596 4,723 −5.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1% −0.8%
Episcopalian/Anglican 3,043 3,451 2,405 −21.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% −0.7%
United Church of Christ 438 1,378 736 68.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Christian Generic 25,980 22,546 32,441 24.9% 14.8% 10.8% 14.2% −0.6%
Christian Unspecified 8,073 14,190 16,384 102.9% 4.6% 6.8% 7.2% 2.6%
Non-denominational Christian 194 2,489 8,032 4040.2% 0.1% 1.2% 3.5% 3.4%
Protestant – Unspecified 17,214 4,647 5,187 −69.9% 9.8% 2.2% 2.3% −7.5%
Evangelical/Born Again 546 1,088 2,154 294.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6%
Pentecostal/Charismatic 5,647 7,831 7,948 40.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.5% 0.3%
Pentecostal – Unspecified 3,116 4,407 5,416 73.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Assemblies of God 617 1,105 810 31.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Church of God 590 943 663 12.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Other Protestant Denominations 4,630 5,949 7,131 54.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.5%
Churches of Christ 1,769 2,593 1,921 8.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% −0.2%
Seventh-Day Adventist 668 724 938 40.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Jehovah's Witnesses 1,381 1,331 1,914 38.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints 2,487 2,697 3,158 27.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Total non-Christian religions 5,853 7,740 8,796 50.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 0.5%
Jewish 3,137 2,837 2,680 −14.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% −0.6%
Eastern Religions 687 2,020 1,961 185.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5%
Buddhist 404 1,082 1,189 194.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Muslim 527 1,104 1,349 156.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
New Religious Movements & Others 1,296 1,770 2,804 116.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
None/ No religion, total 14,331 29,481 34,169 138.4% 8.2% 14.2% 15.0% 6.8%
Agnostic+Atheist 1,186 1,893 3,606 204.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6% 0.9%
Did Not Know/ Refused to reply 4,031 11,300 11,815 193.1% 2.3% 5.4% 5.2% 2.9%

Highlights:

  1. The ARIS 2008 survey was carried out from February–November 2008 and collected answers from 54,461 respondents who were questioned in English or Spanish.
  2. The American population self-identifies as predominantly Christian but Americans are slowly becoming less Christian.
    • 86% of American adults identified as Christians in 1990 and 76% in 2008.
    • The historic Mainline churches and denominations have experienced the steepest declines while the non-denominational Christian identity has been trending upward particularly since 2001.
    • The challenge to Christianity in the United States does not come from other religions but rather from a rejection of all forms of organized religion.
  3. 34% of American adults considered themselves "Born Again or Evangelical Christians" in 2008.
  4. The U.S. population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, with one out of every seven Americans failing to indicate a religious identity in 2008.
    • The "Nones" (no stated religious preference, atheist, or agnostic) continue to grow, though at a much slower pace than in the 1990s, from 8.2% in 1990 to 14.1% in 2001, to 15.0% in 2008.
    • Asian Americans are substantially more likely to indicate no religious identity than other racial or ethnic groups.
  5. One sign of the lack of attachment of Americans to religion is that 27% do not expect a religious funeral at their death.
  6. Based on their stated beliefs rather than their religious identification in 2008, 70% of Americans believe in a personal God, roughly 12% of Americans are atheist (no God) or agnostic (unknowable or unsure), and another 12% are deistic (a higher power but no personal God).
  7. America's religious geography has been transformed since 1990. Religious switching along with Hispanic immigration has significantly changed the religious profile of some states and regions. Between 1990 and 2008, the Catholic population proportion of the New England states fell from 50% to 36% and in New York it fell from 44% to 37%, while it rose in California from 29% to 37% and in Texas from 23% to 32%.
  8. Overall the 1990–2008 ARIS time series shows that changes in religious self-identification in the first decade of the 21st century have been moderate in comparison to the 1990s, which was a period of significant shifts in the religious composition of the United States

Asia

  • According to scholar Philip Jenkins Christianity is growing rapidly in China and some other Asian countries.
  • According to a report by the Singapore Management University, more people in Southeast Asia are converting to Christianity, and these new converts are mostly Chinese business managers.
  • According to scholar Juliette Koning and Heidi Dahles of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam there is a "rapid expansion of charismatic Christianity from the 1980s onwards. Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia are said to have the fastest-growing Christian communities and the majority of the new believers are "upwardly mobile, urban, middle-class Chinese". Asia has the second largest Pentecostal-charismatic Christians of any continent, with the number growing from 10 million to 135 million between 1970 and 2000".

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

  • According to scholars Khalil Bilici, during the Bangladesh Liberation War (March–December 1971), a significant number of Bangladeshis left Islam to join Christianity (because missionaries stood with them during their difficult times during the civil strife) or to atheism after 1971 due to their experience of oppression conducted by fellow Muslims from West Pakistan.
  • A 2015 study estimates some 130,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in the Bangladesh, though not all are necessarily citizens.
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated the numbers of the Muslim who convert to Christianity in Bangladesh has risen from two hundred thousand to four hundred thousand between 1971 and 1991.
  • The Home Office estimated that up to 91,000 Muslims have converted to Christianity in Bangladesh from 2012 to 2018.

China

  • In recent years, the number of Chinese Christians has increased significantly, particularly since the easing of restrictions on religious activity during economic reforms in the late 1970s; Christians were 4 million before 1949 (including Catholics and Protestants), and reaching 67 million (unofficial figure) in 2010. Various statistical analyses have found that between 2% and 4% of the Chinese identify as Christian.
  • The government declared in 2018 that there are over 44 million Christians (Protestant: 38M, Catholic: 6M) in China.
  • According to a study by a scholar Fenggang Yang from Purdue University, Christianity is "spreading among the Chinese of South-East Asia", and "Evangelical and Pentecostal Christianity is growing more quickly in China", also according to him, more than half of them have university degrees.
  • According to the Council on Foreign Relations the "number of Chinese Protestants has grown by an average of 10 percent annually since 1979" as of 2018.

India

  • Christianity is the third largest religion in India after Hinduism and Islam, with approximately 30 million followers.
  • A 2015 study estimates some 40,000 Christian believers from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism or Catholicism.
  • While the exact number of Dalit converts to Christianity in India is not available, scholar William R. Burrow of Colorado State University estimated that about 8% of Dalit have converted to Christianity.
  • According to a 2021 study by the Pew Research Center, Christianity in India gained an increase from conversion, most of the Christian converts in India are former Hindus.

Indonesia

  • According to various sources, between 1965 and 1985 about 2.5 million Indonesian converted from Islam to Christianity.
  • The "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census" found that between 1960 and 2015 about 6.5 million Indonesian Muslims convert to Christianity.
  • Some reports also show that many of the Chinese Indonesians minority convert to Christianity. Demographer Aris Ananta reported in 2008 that "anecdotal evidence suggests that more Buddhist Chinese have become Christians as they increased their standards of education".

Iran

  • Significant numbers of Muslims convert to Christianity in Iran, estimates range from 300,000 to 500,000 by various sources. Other estimates put the numbers between 800,000 and 3 million.
  • According to scholar Ladan Boroumand "Iran [as of 2020 was] witnessing the highest rate of Christianization in the world", and according to scholar Shay Khatiri of Johns Hopkins University "Islam is the fastest shrinking religion in there [Iran], while Christianity is growing the fastest", and in 2018 "up to half a million Iranians are Christian converts from Muslim families, and most of these Christians are evangelicals", and he adds "recent estimates claim that the number might have climbed up to somewhere between 1 million and 3 million".
  • Christianity is reportedly the fastest growing religion in Iran with an average annual rate of 5.2%. A 2015 study estimates between 100,000 and 500,000 believers Christians from a Muslim background living in Iran, most of them evangelical Christians.

Israel

  • Several thousand Israelis practice Messianic Jewish denominations, which are often considered as Christian sects. The Messianic Jews usually combine Jewish and Christian practices but do recognize Jesus as the Messiah. There are no exact numbers on those communities, but it is believed that several hundred to several thousand ethnic Jews belong to this tradition as well as several thousand Israelis of mixed ancestry (mostly mixed Jewish and Slavic).

Japan

  • Christianity is one of several minority religions in Japan, accounting for about not more than 1 percent of the population.
  • According to a poll conducted by the Gallup Organization in 2006, Christianity has increased significantly in Japan, particularly among youth, and a high number of teens are becoming Christians.

Jordan

  • A 2015 study estimates some 6,500 Christian believers from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Eastern Orthodoxy.

Kazakhstan

  • In spite of the persecution of converts from Islam to Christianity, a 2015 study estimates some 50,000 believers in Christ from a Muslim background residing in the country.

Kuwait

  • There are a number of believers in Christ from a Muslim background in the country, though many are not citizens. A 2015 study estimates that around 350 people in the country follow these beliefs.

Kyrgyzstan

  • A 2015 study estimates some 19,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in the country, though not all are necessarily citizens of Kyrgyzstan.
  • Exact numbers of Muslim Kyrgyz converts to Christianity vary but an estimate of around 20,000 is generally accepted among scholars.

Malaysia

  • There is no well researched agreement on the actual number of Malaysian Muslim converts to Christianity in Malaysia. But according to Tan Sri Dr Harussani Zakaria, they are 260,000.

Mongolia

Oman

  • A 2015 study estimates a mere 200 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in the country, and not all of those are necessarily citizens.

Saudi Arabia

A 2015 study estimates 60,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Saudi Arabia.

Singapore

  • The percentage of Christians among Singaporeans increased from 12.7% in 1990 to 17.5% in 2010.
  • According to scholar Michael Nai-Chiu Poon of University of Toronto conversion to Christianity was increasing among Chinese Singaporeans as of 2010.
  • It's been reported also that increasing numbers of young people or educated people are becoming Christians in Singapore.

South Korea

  • In South Korea, Christianity has grown from 20.7% in 1985 to 29.5% in 2005 according to the World Christian Database.

Syria

  • A 2015 study estimates some 2,000 Muslims who converted to Christianity in Syria, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism or Oriental Orthodoxy.
  • Converting to Christianity is growing among Muslims in the Syrian diaspora, and among Kurds in Syria.
  • By one estimate made by Elisabet Granli from University of Oslo, around 1,920 Syrian Druz converted to Christianity.

Tajikistan

  • In spite of opposition in relation to conversion from Islam to Christianity, a 2015 study estimates some 2,600 to 3,000 Christians with Muslim backgrounds reside in the country.

Turkey

  • According to the newspaper "Milliyet", 35,000 Muslim Turks converted to Christianity in 2008.
  • A 2015 study estimates some 4,500 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in Turkey, most of them Turks. The ethnic Turkish Protestant Christian community in Turkey number about 4,000-5,000 adherents most of them came from Muslim Turkish background.

Uzbekistan

  • A 2015 study estimates some 10,000 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some sort of evangelical or charismatic Protestant community.

Vietnam

Europe

Albania

  • Since 1960 a growing number of Albanian Muslims are converting to Christianity.
  • A 2015 study estimated some 13,000 followers of Christ from a Muslim background, though it is not clear to which Christian churches these people had converted.
  • Converting to Christianity is growing among Muslims in the Albanian diaspora.

Belgium

  • Reports estimated that "many" Muslims convert every year to Christianity in Belgium.

Bulgaria

  • Reports estimated that thousands of Muslims (mostly Bulgarian Turks) convert every year to Christianity in Bulgaria. A 2015 study estimates 45,000 Christian believers from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.

Denmark

  • There are around 8,000 Christians who have converted from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.

France

  • Protestants have increased as a percentage of total population from 1% in 1987 to 3% in 2009.
  • Reports form Le Monde estimated that 15,000 Muslims convert every year to Christianity.
  • Some scholars and media reports indicate that there been increasing numbers of conversions to Christianity among the Maghrebis in France.

Georgia

  • More than 20,000 Muslims have converted to Christianity in Georgia (Abkhazia).

Germany

Kosovo

  • Reports estimated that hundreds of Muslims convert every year to Christianity in Kosovo.

Norway

Netherlands

  • Reports estimated that 4,500 Muslims have converted to Christianity in the Netherlands.
  • In recent years a number of Dutch Muslims have converted to Christianity.

Russia

  • According to Roman Silantyev the executive secretary of the Inter-religious Council in Russia, about 2 million Muslims in Russia have converted to Christianity between during the last fifteen years while only 2,500 Russians converted to Islam.
  • According to a 2012 study, 17% of Jews in Russia identify themselves as Christians.

Spain

  • Between 1998 and 2018, Protestantism grew from 0.24% to 1.96% of the Spanish population.

Sweden

  • In recent years a number of Swedish Muslims have converted from Islam to the Church of Sweden, most noticeably by Iranians, but also by Arabs and Pakistanis.

United Kingdom

  • A 2015 study estimated some 25,000 believers in Christ from a Muslim background, most of whom belong to an evangelical or Pentecostal community.
  • In recent years a number of Muslims have converted to Christianity in the United Kingdom.

Oceania

Australia

A 2015 study estimates some 20,000 Muslim converted to Christianity in Australia, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Muslim population growth

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth
World Muslim population by percentage (Pew Research Center, 2014)

Between 2015 and 2060, Muslim population is projected to increase by 70%, from 1.76 billion to 3 billion. This compares with the 32% growth of world population during the same period.

According to a study published in 2011 by Pew Research, whilst there is a lack of reliable data, religious conversion might have no net impact on the Muslim population as the number of people who convert to Islam is thought to be similar to those who leave Islam. According to another study published in 2015 by the Pew Research Center, Islam is expected to gain a net of 3 million adherents through religious conversion between 2010 and 2050, which makes Islam the second largest religion in terms of net gains through religious conversion after religiously unaffiliated, mostly comes from Sub-Saharan Africa (2.9 million). In 1900 Muslims only numbered 200 million followers or 12% of the world population. This percentage drastically increased over the last 100 years due to higher birth rate in Muslim majority countries. Pew Research have estimated the number will be around 2.2 billion in 2030 and 2.8 billion, or 30 percent of the world population, in 2050.

By region

World

The six fastest-growing religions in the world are estimated to be Islam (1.84%), the Baháʼí Faith (1.70%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%), and Christianity (1.38%), with high birth rates being cited as the major reason.

Asia

Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, 27.3% of the people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and 21.6% in 1990.

India

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in India. Growth rate of Muslims has been consistently higher than the growth rate of Hindus, ever since the census data of independent India has been available. For example, during the 1991–2001 decade, Muslim growth rate was 29.5% (vs 19.9% for Hindus). However, Muslims population growth rate declined to 24.6% during 2001–2011 decade, in keeping with the similar decline in most religious groups of India.

In India regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are supporting so. (ages 20–30). Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women know less than do older (ages 20–30). "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger (ages 10–19). A 2016 study suggested that urban north Indian Muslim women's use of contraceptives was more influenced by socioeconomic factors than by religion. Making up 14.2% of the country's population with about 172 million adherents (2011 census). In 2010, India had the second or third largest population of Muslims.

China

In China, Muslim population growth has been estimated to be as much as 2.7% from 1964 to 1982, however the Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China. By contrast, China's Christian population growth has been estimated at 4.7% based on total population figures from the year 1949. The number of permitted births in China varies between one and three children depending on geographic area.

Europe

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe. According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, and 44 million in 2010; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010. In recent years, "Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing from Syria and predominantly Muslim countries" due to various conflicts in its country. And, the wave of Muslim migrants has caused debates about immigration and security policies and raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe. There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%). Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration. Additionally, average Muslims today are younger and have a higher fertility than other Europeans. Between the mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe. Approximately, 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than employment and education. And, more than 1.3 million Muslims received and are expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to stay in Europe.

In 2016, the median age of Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, 13 years younger than the median age of other Europeans. 50% of all European Muslims are younger than 30, however, only 32% of non-Muslims in Europe were under the age of 30. A survey conducted by Pew Research Center in 2016 found that Muslims make up 4.9% of all Europe's population. According to a same study conversion does not add significantly to the growth of the Muslim population in Europe, with roughly 160,000 more people leaving Islam than converting into Islam between 2010 and 2016.

France

In France, there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986. The population mostly originate from the Maghreb, and, France is home to a third of EU Muslims. As of mid-2016, there are 5.7 million Muslims in France (8.8% of the population) and the Muslim population continues to grow.

Germany

In Germany, there are approximately 5 million Muslims (6.1% of the population), and at least 2.3 million trace their origin to Turkey. The "guest worker program" and the domination of Turkish religious authorities have increased German Islam. A report from Pew found "Germany as the top destination for Muslim migrants between 2010 and 2016". Other Muslims have origins in Syria, Tunisia and Afghanistan. 

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is home to 3.5 million Muslims (6.5% of the population) according to the 2021 census and has the highest number of Muslim migrants. Most originate from South Asia, particularly Pakistan.

Conversion

Counting the number of converts to a religion is difficult, because some national censuses ask people about their religion, but they do not ask if they have converted to their present faith, and, in some countries, legal and social consequences make conversion difficult, such as the death sentence for leaving Islam in some Muslim countries. Statistical data on conversion to and from Islam are scarce. According to a study published in 2011 by Pew Research, what little information is available suggests that religious conversion has no net impact on the global Muslim population as the number of people who convert to Islam is roughly similar to those who leave Islam. According to another study published on 2015 by Pew research center, Islam is expected to experience a modest gain of 3 million adherents through religious conversion between 2010 and 2050, although this modest impact will make Islam, compared with other religions, the second largest religion in terms of net gains through religious conversion after religiously unaffiliated, which expected has the largest net gains through religious conversion.

According to The New York Times, an estimated 25% of American Muslims are converts. In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and, according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey, the majority of new Muslim converts in Britain were women. According to The Huffington Post, "observers estimate that as many as 20,000 Americans convert to Islam annually."

According to Pew Research, the number of U.S. converts to Islam is roughly equal to the number of U.S. Muslims who leave the religion, unlike other religions, in which the number of those leaving is greater than the number of converts. 77% of new converts to Islam are from Christianity, whereas 19% were from non-religion. Conversely, 55% of Muslims who left Islam became non-religious, and 22% converted to Christianity. Data from the General Social Survey in the United States show that 32 percent of those raised Muslim no longer embrace Islam in adulthood, and 18 percent hold no religious identification.

According to historian Geoffrey Blainey from the University of Melbourne, since the 1960s, there has been a substantial increase in the number of conversions from Islam to Christianity, mostly to the Evangelical and Pentecostal forms. Many Muslims who convert to Christianity face social and governmental persecution. According to 2015 Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background": A Global Census study published by Baylor University institute for studies of religion, an estimated 10.2 million Muslims have converted to Christianity based on global missionary data. According to Guinness World Records 2003, approximately 12.5 million more people converted to Islam than people converted to Christianity between 1990 and 2000.

Despite this, Islam remains, on the global level, the second religion with the second largest number of net converts into the religion, with about 420,000 more people converting to Islam than leaving Islam between 2015 and 2020. This number being surpassed by the number of people (7,570,000) switching from "religious" to "unaffiliated".

Historical Muslim population

Year World population Muslim population Islamic followers share (%)
1800 1 billion 91 million (9.1%)
1900 1.6 billion 200 million (12.5%)
1970 3.7 billion 577 million (15.6%)
2000 6.14 billion 1.291 billion (21%)
2013 7.21 billion 1.635 billion (22.7%)
2016 7.46 billion 1.8 billion (24.1%)
2040 9 billion 2.2 billion (26%)
2050 9.7 billion 2.8 billion (30%)

 

Energy Information Administration

U.S. Energy Information Administration
Agency overview
FormedOctober 1, 1977
JurisdictionFederal Government of the United States
HeadquartersWashington, D.C.
United States
Annual budget$126.8 million (FY2021)
Agency executives
  • Stephen Nalley, Acting Administrator
  • Stephen Nalley, Deputy Administrator
Parent agencyUnited States Department of Energy
WebsiteEIA.gov

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA programs cover data on coal, petroleum, natural gas, electric, renewable and nuclear energy. EIA is part of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Background

The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established EIA as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis, building upon systems and organizations first established in 1974 following the oil market disruption of 1973.

EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows; generates short- and long-term domestic and international energy projections; and performs informative energy analyses.

EIA disseminates its data products, analyses, reports, and services to customers and stakeholders primarily through its website and the customer contact center.

Located in Washington, D.C., EIA has about 325 federal employees and a budget of $126.8 million in fiscal year 2021.

List of administrators

Portrait Administrator Took office Left office
Lincoln Moses 1978 1980
Erich Evered 1981 1984
Helmut Merklein 1985 1990
Calvin Kent 1990 1993
Jay Hakes 1993 2000
Guy Caruso 2002 2008
Richard G. Newell August 3, 2009 July 1, 2011
Adam Sieminski 2012 2017
Linda Capuano 2018 2021
Joseph DeCarolis April 11, 2022 2025

Independence

By law, EIA's products are prepared independently of policy considerations. EIA neither formulates nor advocates any policy conclusions. The Department of Energy Organization Act allows EIA's processes and products to be independent from review by Executive Branch officials; specifically, Section 205(d) says:

"The Administrator shall not be required to obtain the approval of any other officer or employee of the Department in connection with the collection or analysis of any information; nor shall the Administrator be required, prior to publication, to obtain the approval of any other officer or employee of the United States with respect to the substance of any statistical or forecasting technical reports which he has prepared in accordance with law."

Products

Offices in the James V. Forrestal Building
Figure 3 from the International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) report. Aggregate energy‑related carbon emissions remain constant to 2050 under the low GDP growth case, otherwise they rise significantly. The analysis is based on current ascertainable policy interventions.

More than two million people use the EIA's information online each month. Some of the EIA's products include:

  • General Interest Energy Information
    • Energy Explained: Energy information written for a general, non-technical audience. A nonpartisan guide to the entire range of energy topics from biodiesel to uranium.
    • Energy Kids: Educates students, citizens, and even policymakers and journalists about energy.
    • Energy Glossary: Common energy terms defined in plain language.
  • Timely Analysis
    • Today in Energy: Informative content published every weekday that includes a graph or map and a short, timely story written in plain language that highlights current energy issues, topics, and data trends.
    • This Week in Petroleum: Weekly summary and explanation of events in United States and world petroleum markets, including weekly data. This report, together with its companion, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, is a handy tool for investors. These are published every Wednesday (unless Monday is a holiday) at 10:30 AM Eastern Time (for the preliminary version) with the full report following at 1 PM Eastern. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report provides estimates of the amount of crude oil and petroleum products in storage, so that one may get a sense of whether stocks are building or declining, and of US oil production, so that an interested party can get a sense of whether it is decreasing or increasing. It is not unusual for the price of crude oil to jump up or down by a few percentage points, immediately after this report is released.
    • Natural Gas Weekly Update: Weekly summary and discussion of events and trends in U.S. natural gas markets.
  • Data and Surveys
    • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update: Weekly price data for U.S. national and regional averages.
    • Monthly Energy Review: Provides statistics on monthly and annual U.S. energy consumption going back in some cases to 1949. The figures are given in units of quads (quadrillion BTUs.)
    • Annual Energy Review: EIA's primary report of historical annual energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. This report has been superseded by the Monthly Energy Review and was not produced for 2012.
    • Country Energy Profiles: Data by country, region, and commercial group (OECD, OPEC) for 219 countries with additional country analysis notes for 87 of these.
    • Country Analysis Briefs: EIA's in-depth analyses of energy production, consumption, imports, and exports for 36 individual countries and regions.
    • Residential Energy Consumption Survey: EIA's comprehensive survey and analysis of residential energy consumption, household characteristics, and appliance saturation.
    • Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: A national sample survey that collects information on the stock of U.S. commercial buildings, including their energy-related building characteristics and energy usage data (consumption and expenditures).
  • Projections and Outlooks
    • Short-Term Energy Outlook: Energy projections for the next 13–24 months, updated monthly.
    • Annual Energy Outlook: Projection and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040 based on EIA's National Energy Modeling System. Projections are currently based on existing legislation, without assumption of any future congressional action or technological advancement. In 2015, EIA has been criticized by the Advanced Energy Economy (AEE) Institute after its release of the AEO 2015-report to "consistently underestimate the growth rate of renewable energy, leading to 'misperceptions' about the performance of these resources in the marketplace". AEE points out that the average power purchase agreement (PPA) for wind power was already at $24/MWh in 2013. Likewise, PPA for utility-scale solar PV are seen at current levels of $50–$75/MWh. These figures contrast strongly with EIA's estimated LCOE of $125/MWh (or $114/MWh including subsidies) for solar PV in 2020.[19] This criticism has been repeated every year since.
    • International Energy Outlook: EIA's assessment of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040.

Legislation

The Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974 created the Federal Energy Administration (FEA), the first U.S. agency with the primary focus on energy and mandated it to collect, assemble, evaluate, and analyze energy information. It also provided the FEA with data collection enforcement authority for gathering data from energy producing and major consuming firms. Section 52 of the FEA Act mandated establishment of the National Energy Information System to "… contain such energy information as is necessary to carry out the Administration's statistical and forecasting activities …"

The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, Public Law 95-91, created the Department of Energy. Section 205 of this law established the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis to carry out a " ...central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information which is relevant to energy resource reserves, energy production, demand, and technology, and related economic and statistical information, or which is relevant to the adequacy of energy resources to meet demands in the near and longer term future for the Nation's economic and social needs."

The same law established that EIA's processes and products are independent from review by Executive Branch officials.

The majority of EIA energy data surveys are based on the general mandates set forth above. However, there are some surveys specifically mandated by law, including:

  • EIA-28, Financial Reporting System - Section 205(h) of the DOE Organization Act.
  • EIA-1605 and 1605EZ, Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases - Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992.
  • EIA-886, Annual Survey of Alternative Fueled Vehicle Suppliers and Users - Section 503(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992.
  • EIA-858, Uranium Marketing Annual Survey - Section 1015 of the Energy Policy Act of 1992.
  • EIA-846A-C, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - Section 205(i) of the DOE Organization Act (the act calls for a biennial survey; however, this survey is done quadrennially due to resource constraints).
  • EIA-457A-G, Residential Energy Consumption Survey - Section 205(k) of the DOE Organization Act (the act calls for a triennial survey; however, this survey is done quadrennially due to resource constraints).
  • EIA-871A-F, Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey - Section 205(k) of the DOE Organization Act (the act calls for a triennial survey; however, this survey is done quadrennially due to resource constraints).
  • Petroleum Marketing Surveys - Section 507 of Part A of Title V of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 broadly directs EIA to collect information on the pricing, supply, and distribution of petroleum products by product category at the wholesale and retail levels, on a State-by-State basis, which was collected as of September 1, 1981, by the Energy Information Administration.

World energy resources

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

World energy resources are the estimated maximum capacity for energy production given all available resources on Earth. They can be divided by type into fossil fuel, nuclear fuel and renewable resources.

Fossil fuel

Remaining reserves of fossil fuel are estimated as:

Fuel Proven energy reserves in zettajoule (ZJ) as of the end of 2009
Coal 19.8
Gas 36.4
Oil 8.9

These are the proven energy reserves; real reserves may be four or more times larger. These numbers are very uncertain. Estimating the remaining fossil fuels on the planet depends on a detailed understanding of Earth's crust. With modern drilling technology, we can drill wells in up to 3 km of water to verify the exact composition of the geology; but half of the ocean is deeper than 3 km, leaving about a third of the planet beyond the reach of detailed analysis.

There is uncertainty in the total amount of reserves, but also in how much of these can be recovered gainfully, for technological, economic and political reasons, such as the accessibility of fossil deposits, the levels of sulfur and other pollutants in the oil and the coal, transportation costs, and societal instability in producing regions. In general the easiest to reach deposits are the first extracted.

Coal

Coal is the most abundant and burned fossil fuel. This was the fuel that launched the industrial revolution and continued to grow in use; China, which already has many of the world's most polluted cities, was in 2007 building about two coal-fired power plants every week. Coal's large reserves would make it a popular candidate to meet the energy demand of the global community, short of global warming concerns and other pollutants.

Natural gas

Countries by natural gas proven reserves (2014), based on data from The World Factbook.

Natural gas is a widely available fossil fuel with estimated 850 000 km3 in recoverable reserves and at least that much more using enhanced methods to release shale gas. Improvements in technology and wide exploration led to a major increase in recoverable natural gas reserves as shale fracking methods were developed. At present usage rates, natural gas could supply most of the world's energy needs for between 100 and 250 years, depending on increase in consumption over time.

Oil

Remaining oil: Breakdown of the remaining 57 zettajoule (ZJ) of oil on the planet. The annual oil consumption was 0.18 ZJ in 2005. There is significant uncertainty surrounding these numbers. The 11 ZJ of future additions to the recoverable reserves could be optimistic.

It is estimated that there may be 57 zettajoule (ZJ) of oil reserves on Earth (although estimates vary from a low of 8 ZJ, consisting of currently proven and recoverable reserves, to a maximum of 110 ZJ) consisting of available, but not necessarily recoverable reserves, and including optimistic estimates for unconventional sources such as oil sands and oil shale. Current consensus among the 18 recognized estimates of supply profiles is that the peak of extraction will occur in 2020 at the rate of 93-million barrels per day (mbd). Current oil consumption is at the rate of 0.18 ZJ per year (31.1 billion barrels) or 85 mbd.

There is growing concern that peak oil production may be reached in the near future, resulting in severe oil price increases. A 2005 French Economics, Industry and Finance Ministry report suggested a worst-case scenario that could occur as early as 2013. There are also theories that peak of the global oil production may occur in as little as 2–3 years. The ASPO predicts peak year to be in 2010. Some other theories present the view that it has already taken place in 2005. World crude oil production (including lease condensates) according to US EIA data decreased from a peak of 73.720 mbd in 2005 to 73.437 in 2006, 72.981 in 2007, and 73.697 in 2008. According to peak oil theory, increasing production will lead to a more rapid collapse of production in the future, while decreasing production will lead to a slower decrease, as the bell-shaped curve will be spread out over more years.

In a stated goal of increasing oil prices to $75/barrel, which had fallen from a high of $147 to a low of $40, OPEC announced decreasing production by 2.2 mbd beginning 1 January 2009.

Sustainability

Political considerations over the security of supplies, environmental concerns related to global warming and sustainability are expected to move the world's energy consumption away from fossil fuels. The concept of peak oil shows that about half of the available petroleum resources have been produced, and predicts a decrease of production.

A government moving away from fossil fuels would most likely create economic pressure through carbon emissions and green taxation. Some countries are taking action as a result of the Kyoto Protocol, and further steps in this direction are proposed. For example, the European Commission has proposed that the energy policy of the European Union should set a binding target of increasing the level of renewable energy in the EU's overall mix from less than 7% in 2007 to 20% by 2020.

The antithesis of sustainability is a disregard for limits, commonly referred to as the Easter Island Effect, which is the concept of being unable to develop sustainability, resulting in the depletion of natural resources. Some estimate that, assuming current consumption rates, current oil reserves could be completely depleted by 2050.

Nuclear energy

Nuclear energy

The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates the remaining uranium resources to be equal to 2500 ZJ. This assumes the use of breeder reactors, which are able to create more fissile material than they consume. IPCC estimated currently proved economically recoverable uranium deposits for once-through fuel cycles reactors to be only 2 ZJ. The ultimately recoverable uranium is estimated to be 17 ZJ for once-through reactors and 1000 ZJ with reprocessing and fast breeder reactors.

Resources and technology do not constrain the capacity of nuclear power to contribute to meeting the energy demand for the 21st century. However, political and environmental concerns about nuclear safety and radioactive waste started to limit the growth of this energy supply at the end of last century, particularly due to a number of nuclear accidents. Concerns about nuclear proliferation (especially with plutonium produced by breeder reactors) mean that the development of nuclear power by countries such as Iran and Syria is being actively discouraged by the international community.

Although at the beginning of the 21st century uranium is the primary nuclear fuel worldwide, others such as thorium and hydrogen had been under investigation since the middle of the 20th century.

Thorium reserves significantly exceed those of uranium, and of course hydrogen is abundant. It is also considered by many to be easier to obtain than uranium. While uranium mines are enclosed underground and thus very dangerous for the miners, thorium is taken from open pits, and is estimated to be roughly three times as abundant as uranium in the Earth's crust.

Since the 1960s, numerous facilities throughout the world have burned Thorium.

Nuclear fusion

Alternatives for energy production through fusion of hydrogen have been under investigation since the 1950s. No materials can withstand the temperatures required to ignite the fuel, so it must be confined by methods which use no materials. Magnetic and inertial confinement are the main alternatives (Cadarache, Inertial confinement fusion) both of which are hot research topics in the early years of the 21st century.

Nuclear fusion is the process powering the sun and other stars. It generates large quantities of heat by fusing the nuclei of hydrogen or helium isotopes, which may be derived from seawater. The heat can theoretically be harnessed to generate electricity. The temperatures and pressures needed to sustain fusion make it a very difficult process to control. Fusion is theoretically able to supply vast quantities of energy, with relatively little pollution. Although both the United States and the European Union, along with other countries, are supporting fusion research (such as investing in the ITER facility), according to one report, inadequate research has stalled progress in fusion research for the past 20 years.

Renewable resources

Renewable resources are available each year, unlike non-renewable resources, which are eventually depleted. A simple comparison is a coal mine and a forest. While the forest could be depleted, if it is managed it represents a continuous supply of energy, vs. the coal mine, which once has been exhausted is gone. Most of earth's available energy resources are renewable resources. Renewable resources account for more than 93 percent of total U.S. energy reserves. Annual renewable resources were multiplied times thirty years for comparison with non-renewable resources. In other words, if all non-renewable resources were uniformly exhausted in 30 years, they would only account for 7 percent of available resources each year, if all available renewable resources were developed.

Biomass

Production of biomass and biofuels are growing industries as interest in sustainable fuel sources is growing. Utilizing waste products avoids a food vs. fuel trade-off, and burning methane gas reduces greenhouse gas emissions, because even though it releases carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide is 23 times less of a greenhouse gas than is methane. Biofuels represent a sustainable partial replacement for fossil fuels, but their net impact on greenhouse gas emissions depends on the agricultural practices used to grow the plants used as feedstock to create the fuels. While it is widely believed that biofuels can be carbon neutral, there is evidence that biofuels produced by current farming methods are substantial net carbon emitters. Geothermal and biomass are the only two renewable energy sources that require careful management to avoid local depletion.

Geothermal

Estimates of exploitable worldwide geothermal energy resources vary considerably, depending on assumed investments in technology and exploration and guesses about geological formations. According to a 1998 study, this might amount to between 65 and 138 GW of electrical generation capacity 'using enhanced technology'. Other estimates range from 35 to 2000 GW of electrical generation capacity, with a further potential for 140 EJ/year of direct use.

A 2006 report by the MIT that took into account the use of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) concluded that it would be affordable to generate 100 GWe (gigawatts of electricity) or more by 2050, just in the United States, for a maximum investment of 1 billion US dollars in research and development over 15 years. The MIT report calculated the world's total EGS resources to be over 13 YJ, of which over 0.2 YJ would be extractable, with the potential to increase this to over 2 YJ with technology improvements – sufficient to provide all the world's energy needs for several thousand years. The total heat content of the Earth is 13,000,000 YJ.

Hydropower

In 2005, hydroelectric power supplied 16.4% of world electricity, down from 21.0% in 1973, but only 2.2% of the world's energy.

Solar energy

Renewable energy sources are even larger than the traditional fossil fuels and in theory can easily supply the world's energy needs. 89 PW of solar power falls on the planet's surface. While it is not possible to capture all, or even most, of this energy, capturing less than 0.02% would be enough to meet the current energy needs. Barriers to further solar generation include the high price of making solar cells and reliance on weather patterns to generate electricity. Also, current solar generation does not produce electricity at night, which is a particular problem in high northern and southern latitude countries; energy demand is highest in winter, while availability of solar energy is lowest. This could be overcome by buying power from countries closer to the equator during winter months, and may also be addressed with technological developments such as the development of inexpensive energy storage. Globally, solar generation is the fastest growing source of energy, seeing an annual average growth of 35% over the past few years. China, Europe, India, Japan, and the United States are the major growing investors in solar energy. Solar power's share of worldwide electricity usage at the end of 2014 was 1%.

Wave and tidal power

At the end of 2005, 0.3 GW of electricity was produced by tidal power. Due to the tidal forces created by the Moon (68%) and the Sun (32%), and Earth's relative rotation with respect to Moon and Sun, there are fluctuating tides. These tidal fluctuations result in dissipation at an average rate of about 3.7 TW.

Another physical limitation is the energy available in the tidal fluctuations of the oceans, which is about 0.6 EJ (exajoule). Note this is only a tiny fraction of the total rotational energy of Earth. Without forcing, this energy would be dissipated (at a dissipation rate of 3.7 TW) in about four semi-diurnal tide periods. So, dissipation plays a significant role in the tidal dynamics of the oceans. Therefore, this limits the available tidal energy to around 0.8 TW (20% of the dissipation rate) in order not to disturb the tidal dynamics too much. 

Waves are derived from wind, which is in turn derived from solar energy, and at each conversion there is a drop of about two orders of magnitude in available energy. The total power of waves that wash against Earth's shores adds up to 3 TW.

Wind power

The available wind energy estimates range from 300 TW to 870 TW. Using the lower estimate, just 5% of the available wind energy would supply the current worldwide energy needs. Most of this wind energy is available over the open ocean. The oceans cover 71% of the planet and wind tends to blow more strongly over open water because there are fewer obstructions.

Quantum foundations

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_foundations Quantum foundation...