In logic, more precisely in deductive reasoning, an argument is valid if and only if it takes a form that makes it impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion nevertheless to be false. It is not required for a valid argument to have premises that are actually true, but to have premises that, if they were true, would guarantee the truth of the argument's conclusion. Valid arguments must be clearly expressed by means of sentences called well-formed formulas (also called wffs or formulas). The validity of an argument can be tested, proved or disproved, and depends on its logical form.
Arguments
Argument terminology used in logic
In logic, an argument is a set of statements expressing the premises (whatever consists of empirical evidences and axiomatic truths) and an evidence-based conclusion.
An argument is valid if and only if it would be contradictory for the conclusion to be false if all of the premises are true.
Validity doesn't require the truth of the premises, instead it merely
necessitates that conclusion follows from the formers without violating
the correctness of the logical form. If also the premises of a valid argument are proven true, this is said to be sound.
An argument that is not valid is said to be "invalid".
An example of a valid argument is given by the following well-known syllogism:
All men are mortal.
Socrates is a man.
Therefore, Socrates is mortal.
What makes this a valid argument is not that it has true premises and
a true conclusion, but the logical necessity of the conclusion, given
the two premises. The argument would be just as valid were the premises
and conclusion false. The following argument is of the same logical form but with false premises and a false conclusion, and it is equally valid:
All cups are green.
Socrates is a cup.
Therefore, Socrates is green.
No matter how the universe might be constructed, it could never be the case
that these arguments should turn out to have simultaneously true
premises but a false conclusion. The above arguments may be contrasted
with the following invalid one:
All men are immortal.
Socrates is a man.
Therefore, Socrates is mortal.
In this case, the conclusion contradicts the deductive logic of the
preceding premises, rather than deriving from it. Therefore, the
argument is logically 'invalid', even though the conclusion could be
considered 'true' in general terms. The premise 'All men are immortal'
would likewise be deemed false outside of the framework of classical
logic. However, within that system 'true' and 'false' essentially
function more like mathematical states such as binary 1s and 0s than the
philosophical concepts normally associated with those terms.
A standard view is that whether an argument is valid is a matter of the argument's logical form.
Many techniques are employed by logicians to represent an argument's
logical form. A simple example, applied to two of the above
illustrations, is the following: Let the letters 'P', 'Q', and 'S'
stand, respectively, for the set of men, the set of mortals, and
Socrates. Using these symbols, the first argument may be abbreviated
as:
All P are Q.
S is a P.
Therefore, S is a Q.
Similarly, the second argument becomes:
All P are not Q.
S is a P.
Therefore, S is a Q.
An argument is termed formally valid if it has structural
self-consistency, i.e. if when the operands between premises are all
true, the derived conclusion is always also true. In the third example,
the initial premises cannot logically result in the conclusion and is
therefore categorized as an invalid argument.
Valid formula
A formula of a formal language is a valid formula if and only if it is true under every possible interpretation of the language. In propositional logic, they are tautologies.
Statements
A statement can be called valid, i.e. logical truth, if it is true in all interpretations.
Soundness
Validity of deduction is not affected by the truth of the premise or
the truth of the conclusion. The following deduction is perfectly valid:
All animals live on Mars.
All humans are animals.
Therefore, all humans live on Mars.
The problem with the argument is that it is not sound. In order for a deductive argument to be sound, the deduction must be valid and all the premises true.
Satisfiability
Model theory
analyzes formulae with respect to particular classes of interpretation
in suitable mathematical structures. On this reading, formula is valid
if all such interpretations make it true. An inference is valid if all
interpretations that validate the premises validate the conclusion.
This is known as semantic validity.
Preservation
In truth-preserving validity, the interpretation under which all variables are assigned a truth value of 'true' produces a truth value of 'true'.
In a false-preserving validity, the interpretation under which all variables are assigned a truth value of 'false' produces a truth value of 'false'.
Logical truths (including tautologies) are truths which are considered to be necessarily true.
This is to say that they are considered to be such that they could not
be untrue and no situation could arise which would cause us to reject a
logical truth. It must be true in every sense of intuition, practices,
and bodies of beliefs. However, it is not universally agreed that there
are any statements which are necessarily true.
A logical truth is considered by some philosophers to be a statement which is true in all possible worlds. This is contrasted with facts (which may also be referred to as contingent claims or synthetic claims) which are true in this world, as it has historically unfolded, but which is not true in at least one possible world, as it might have unfolded. The proposition
"If p and q, then p" and the proposition "All married people are
married" are logical truths because they are true due to their inherent
structure and not because of any facts of the world.
Later, with the rise of formal logic a logical truth was considered to
be a statement which is true under all possible interpretations.
The existence of logical truths has been put forward by rationalist philosophers as an objection to empiricism because they hold that it is impossible to account for our knowledge
of logical truths on empiricist grounds. Empiricists commonly respond
to this objection by arguing that logical truths (which they usually
deem to be mere tautologies), are analytic and thus do not purport to
describe the world.
Logical truths and analytic truths
Logical truths, being analytic statements, do not contain any information about any matters of fact.
Other than logical truths, there is also a second class of analytic
statements, typified by "no bachelor is married". The characteristic of
such a statement is that it can be turned into a logical truth by
substituting synonyms for synonyms salva veritate.
"No bachelor is married" can be turned into "no unmarried man is
married" by substituting "unmarried man" for its synonym "bachelor".
In his essay Two Dogmas of Empiricism, the philosopher W. V. O. Quine
called into question the distinction between analytic and synthetic
statements. It was this second class of analytic statements that caused
him to note that the concept of analyticity itself stands in need of
clarification, because it seems to depend on the concept of synonymy,
which stands in need of clarification. In his conclusion, Quine rejects
that logical truths are necessary truths. Instead he posits that the
truth-value of any statement can be changed, including logical truths,
given a re-evaluation of the truth-values of every other statement in
one's complete theory.
Truth values and tautologies
Considering different interpretations of the same statement leads to the notion of truth value. The simplest approach to truth values means that the statement may be "true" in one case, but "false" in another. In one sense of the term tautology, it is any type of formula or proposition which turns out to be true under any possible interpretation of its terms (may also be called a valuation or assignment depending upon the context). This is synonymous to logical truth.
However, the term tautology is also commonly used to refer to what could more specifically be called truth-functional tautologies. Whereas a tautology or logical truth is true solely because of the logical terms it contains in general (e.g. "every", "some", and "is"), a truth-functional tautology is true because of the logical terms it contains which are logical connectives (e.g. "or", "and", and "nor"). Not all logical truths are tautologies of such a kind.
Logical truth and logical constants
Logical constants, including logical connectives and quantifiers, can all be reduced conceptually to logical truth. For instance, two statements or more are logically incompatibleif, and only if their conjunction is logically false. One statement logically implies another when it is logically incompatible with the negation
of the other. A statement is logically true if, and only if its
opposite is logically false. The opposite statements must contradict
one another. In this way all logical connectives can be expressed in
terms of preserving logical truth. The logical form of a sentence is
determined by its semantic or syntactic structure and by the placement
of logical constants. Logical constants determine whether a statement
is a logical truth when they are combined with a language that limits
its meaning. Therefore, until it is determined how to make a
distinction between all logical constants regardless of their language,
it is impossible to know the complete truth of a statement or argument.
Logical truth and rules of inference
The concept of logical truth is closely connected to the concept of a rule of inference.
Logical truth and logical positivism
Logical positivism
was a movement in the early 20th century that tried to reduce the
reasoning processes of science to pure logic. Among other things, the
logical positivists claimed that any proposition that is not empirically
verifiable is neither true nor false, but nonsense. This movement faded
out due to various problems with their approach among which was a
growing understanding that science does not work in the way that the
positivists described. Another problem was that one of the favorite
slogans of the movement: "any proposition that is not empirically
verifiable is nonsense" was itself not empirically verifiable, and
therefore, by its own terms, nonsense.
Non-classical logics
Non-classical logic is the name given to formal systems which differ in a significant way from standard logical systems such as propositional and predicate logic.
There are several ways in which this is done, including by way of
extensions, deviations, and variations. The aim of these departures is
to make it possible to construct different models of logical consequence and logical truth.
The limited success of Newly Industrialized Countries
The reason that there have been so few scientists, who have made their mark globally, from most NIC's (Newly Industrialized Countries) is partly historical and partly social
A true scientist is nurtured from the school upwards to scientific
establishments. Only if there are inspired and dedicated school science
teachers in abundance, there will be a sufficient number of inspired
students who would like to take science as a career option and who may
one day become a successful scientist.
The common thread
A
common thread can indeed be discerned in the state of science in many
NICs. Thus although, most of the science establishments in the major
NICs can be said to be doing fairly well, none of them have been as
successful as the developed countries.
After the Second World War, a small technical elite arose in developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Brazil, and Iraq
who had been educated as scientists in the industrialized world. They
spearheaded the development of science in these countries, presuming
that by pushing for Manhattan project-type enterprises in nuclear power, electronics, pharmaceuticals, or space exploration
they could leapfrog the dismally low level of development of science
establishments in their countries. India, for example, started a nuclear
energy program that mobilized thousands of technicians and cost
hundreds of millions of dollars but had limited success. Though China, North Korea, India and Pakistan have been successful in deploying nuclear weapons and some of them e.g. China and India have launched fairly successful space programs, (for example, Chandrayaan I (Sanskrit चंद्रयान-1), which literally means "Moon Craft," is an unmanned lunar mission by the Indian Space Research Organisation and it hopes to land a motorised rover on the moon in 2010 or 2011 as a part of its second Chandrayaan mission; Chang'e I,
China's moon probing project is proceeding in full swing in a
well-organized way), the fact remains that most of the scientists
responsible for these deeds had received their terminal education from
some institution or university in US or Europe. In addition there have
been hardly any Nobel laureates in science who have conducted the path-breaking research in a native science establishment.
Science in Brazil
Brazilian science effectively began in the 19th century, until then,
Brazil was a poor colony, without universities, printing presses,
libraries, museums, etc. This was perhaps a deliberate policy of the
Portuguese colonial power, because they feared that the appearance of
educated Brazilian classes would boost nationalism and aspirations
toward political independence.
The first attempts of having a Brazilian science establishment
were made around 1783, with the expedition of Portuguese naturalist
Alexandre Rodrigues, who was sent by Portugal's prime minister, the
Marquis of Pombal, to explore and identify Brazilian fauna, flora and
geology. His collections, however, were lost to the French, when Napoleon invaded, and were transported to Paris by Étienne Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire. In 1772, the first learned society, the Sociedade Scientifica, was founded in Rio de Janeiro, but lasted only until 1794. Also, in 1797, the first botanic institute was founded in Salvador, Bahia.
In the second and third decades of the twentieth century, the main
universities in Brazil were organised from a set of existing medical,
engineering and law schools. The University of Brazil dates from 1927,
the University of São Paulo - today the largest in the Country - dates from 1934.
Today, Brazil has a well-developed organization of science and
technology. Basic research in science is largely carried out in public
universities and research centers and institutes, and some in private
institutions, particularly in non-profit non-governmental organizations.
More than 90% of funding for basic research comes from governmental
sources.
Applied research, technology and engineering is also largely
carried out in the university and research centers system, contrary-wise
to more developed countries such as the United States, South Korea, Germany, Japan, etc. A significant trend is emerging lately. Companies such as Motorola, Samsung, Nokia
and IBM have established large R&D&I centers in Brazil. One of
the incentive factors for this, besides the relatively lower cost and
high sophistication and skills of Brazilian technical manpower, has been
the so-called Informatics Law, which exempts from certain taxes up to
5% of the gross revenue of high technology manufacturing companies in
the fields of telecommunications, computers, digital electronics, etc.
The Law has attracted annually more than 1,5 billion dollars of
investment in Brazilian R&D&I. Multinational companies have also
discovered that some products and technologies designed and developed
by Brazilians are significantly competitive and are appreciated by other
countries, such as automobiles, aircraft, software, fiber optics,
electric appliances, and so on.
The challenges Brazilian science faces today are: to expand the
system with quality, supporting the installed competence; transfer
knowledge from the research sector to industry; embark on government
action in strategic areas; enhance the assessment of existing programmes
and commence innovative projects in areas of relevance for the Country.
Furthermore, scientific dissemination plays a fundamental role in
transforming the perception of the public at large of the importance of
science in modern life. The government has undertaken to meet these
challenges using institutional base and the operation of existing
qualified scientists.
Science in China
A question that has been intriguing many historians studying China is
the fact that China did not develop a scientific revolution and Chinese
technology fell behind that of Europe. Many hypotheses have been
proposed ranging from the cultural to the political and economic. Nathan Sivin
has argued that China indeed had a scientific revolution in the 17th
century and that we are still far from understanding the scientific
revolutions of the West and China in all their political, economic and
social ramifications. Some like John K. Fairbank are of the opinion that the Chinese political system was hostile to scientific progress.
Needham
argued, and most scholars agreed, that cultural factors prevented these
Chinese achievements from developing into what could be called
"science". It was the religious and philosophical framework of the
Chinese intellectuals which made them unable to believe in the ideas of
laws of nature. More recent historians have questioned political and
cultural explanations and have focused more on economic causes. Mark
Elvin's high level equilibrium trap
is one well-known example of this line of thought, as well as Kenneth
Pomeranz' argument that resources from the New World made the crucial
difference between European and Chinese development.
Thus, it was not that there was no order in nature for the
Chinese, but rather that it was not an order ordained by a rational
personal being, and hence there was no conviction that rational personal
beings would be able to spell out in their lesser earthly languages the
divine code of laws which he had decreed aforetime. The Taoists,
indeed, would have scorned such an idea as being too naive for the
subtlety and complexity of the universe as they intuited it. Similar
grounds have been found for questioning much of the philosophy behind
traditional Chinese medicine, which, derived mainly from Taoist
philosophy, reflects the classical Chinese belief that individual human
experiences express causative principles effective in the environment
at all scales. Because its theory predates use of the scientific method,
it has received various criticisms based on scientific thinking. Even
though there are physically verifiable anatomical or histological bases
for the existence of acupuncture points or meridians, for instance skin
conductance measurements show increases at the predicted points.
Today, science and technology establishment in the People's
Republic of China is growing rapidly. Even as many Chinese scientists
debate what institutional arrangements will be best for Chinese science,
reforms of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
continue. The average age of researchers at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences has dropped by nearly ten years between 1991 and 2003. However,
many of them are educated in the United States and other foreign
countries.
Chinese university undergraduate and graduate enrollments more
than doubled from 1995 to 2005. The universities now have more cited PRC
papers than CAS in the Science Citation Index. Some Chinese scientists
say CAS is still ahead on overall quality of scientific work but that
lead will only last five to ten years.
Several Chinese immigrants to the United States have also been awarded the Nobel Prize, including:, Samuel C. C. Ting, Chen Ning Yang, Tsung-Dao Lee, Yuan T. Lee, Daniel C. Tsui, and Gao Xingjian. Other overseas ethnic Chinese that have achieved success in sciences include Fields Medal recipient Shing-Tung Yau and Terence Tao, and Turing Award recipient Andrew Yao. Tsien Hsue-shen was a prominent scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, while Chien-Shiung Wu contributed to the Manhattan Project (some argue she never received the Nobel Prize unlike her colleagues Tsung-Dao Lee and Chen Ning Yang due to sexism by the selection committee). Others include Charles K. Kao, a pioneer in fiber optics technology, and Dr. David Ho,
one of the first scientists to propose that AIDS was caused by a virus,
thus subsequently developing combination antiretroviral therapy to
combat it. Dr. Ho was named TIME magazine's 1996 Man of the Year. In 2015, Tu Youyou,
a pharmaceutical chemist, became the first native Chinese scientist,
born and educated and carried out research exclusively in the People's
Republic of China, to receive the Nobel Prize in natural sciences.
Science in India
The earliest applications of science in India
took place in the context of medicine, metallurgy, construction
technology (such as ship building, manufacture of cement and paints) and
in textile production and dyeing. But in the process of understanding
chemical processes, led to some theories about physical processes and
the forces of nature that are today studied as specific topics within
the fields of chemistry and physics.
Many mathematical concepts today were contributed by Indian mathematicians like Aryabhata.
There was really no place for scientists in the Indian caste system. Thus while there were/are castes for the learned brahmins, the warriors kshatriyas, the traders vaishyas and the menial workers shudras,
maybe even the bureaucrats (the kayasths) there was/is hardly any
formal place in the social hierarchy for a people who discover new
knowledge
or invent new devices based on the recently discovered knowledge, even
though scientific temper has always been in India, in the form of logic,
reasoning and method of acquiring knowledge. Its therefore no wonder
that some Indians quickly learned to value science, especially those
belonging to the privileged Brahmin caste during the British colonial
rule that lasted over two centuries. Some Indians did succeed to achieve
notable success and fame, examples include Satyendra Nath Bose, Meghnad Saha, Jagdish Chandra Bose and C. V. Raman
even though they belonged to different castes. The science
communication had begun with publication of a scientific journal,
Asiatick Researches
in 1788. Thereafter, the science communication in India has evolved in
many facets. Following this, there has been a continuing development in
the formation of scientific institutions and publication of scientific
literature. Subsequently, scientific publications also started appearing
in Indian languages by the end of eighteenth century. The publication
of ancient scientific literature and textbooks at mass scale started in
the beginning of nineteenth century. The scientific and technical terms,
however, had been a great difficulty for a long time for popular
science writing.
Newly industrialized countries shown in blue, developing countries are shown in green, Baltic Tigers in red, developing unrecognised countries in light green (2014).
NICs
are countries whose economies have not yet reached a developed
country's status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their
developing counterparts. Such countries are still considered developing
nations and only differ from other developing nations in the rate at
which an NIC's growth is much higher over a shorter allotted time period
compared to other developing nations. Another characterization of NICs is that of countries undergoing rapid economic growth (usually export-oriented). Incipient or ongoing industrialization
is an important indicator of an NIC. In many NICs, social upheaval can
occur as primarily rural, or agricultural, populations migrate to the
cities, where the growth of manufacturing concerns and factories
can draw many thousands of laborers. NIC's introduce many new
immigrants looking to improve their social and or political status
through newly formed democracies and the increase in wages that most
individuals who partake in such changes would obtain.
Characteristics of newly industrialized countries
Newly
industrialized countries can bring about an increase of stabilization
in a country's social and economic status, allowing the people living in
these nations to begin to experience better living conditions and
better lifestyles. Another characteristic that appears in newly
industrialized countries is the further development in government
structures, such as democracy, the rule of law, and less corruption.
Other such examples of a better lifestyle people living in such
countries can experience are better transportation, electricity, and
better access to water, compared to other developing countries.
The table below presents the list of countries consistently considered NICs by different authors and experts. Turkey and South Africa are classified as developed countries by the CIA. Turkey was a founding member of the OECD in 1961 and Mexico joined in 1994. The G8+5 group is composed of the original G8 members in addition to China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Brazil.
Note: Green-colored cells indicate higher value or best performance in index, while yellow-colored cells indicate the opposite.
For China and India, the immense population of these two countries
(each with over 1.2 billion people as of September 2015) means that per capita income
will remain low even if either economy surpasses that of the United
States in overall GDP. When GDP per capita is calculated according to purchasing power parity (PPP), this takes into account the lower costs of living in each newly industrialized country. GDP per capita typically is an indicator for living standards in a given country as well.
Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa meet annually with
the G8 countries to discuss financial topics and climate change, due to
their economic importance in today's global market and environmental
impact, in a group known as G8+5. This group is expected to expand to G14 by adding Egypt alongside the five aforementioned countries.
Other
Authors set
lists of countries accordingly to different methods of economic
analysis. Sometimes a work ascribes NIC status to a country that other
authors don't consider a NIC. This is the case of countries such as Argentina, Egypt, Sri Lanka and Russia.
Criticism
NICs
usually benefit from comparatively low wage costs, which translates
into lower input prices for suppliers. As a result, it is often easier
for producers in NICs to outperform and outproduce factories in developed countries, where the cost of living is higher, and trade unions and other organizations have more political sway. This comparative advantage is often criticized by advocates of the fair trade movement.
Critics of NICs argue economic freedom is not always associated with political freedom in countries such as China, pointing out that Internet censorship and human rights violations are common. The case is diametrically opposite for India; while being a liberal democracy throughout after its independence,
India has been widely criticized for its inefficient, bureaucratic
governance and slow process of structural reform. Thus, while political
freedom in China remains limited, the average Chinese citizen enjoys a
much higher standard of living than his or her counterpart in India.
Problems
South
Africa faces an influx of immigrants from countries such as Zimbabwe,
although many also come from Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Rwanda, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.
While South Africa is considered wealthy on a wealth-per-capita basis,
economic inequality is persistent and extreme poverty remains high in
the region.
Mexico's economic growth is hampered in some areas by an ongoing drug war.
Other NICs face common problems such as widespread corruption
and/or political instability as well as other circumstances that cause
them to face the "middle income trap".
Sign reads "Political change not climate change" at the Melbourne climate strike in 2019
The complex politics of global warming results from numerous cofactors arising from the global economy's dependence on carbon dioxide (CO 2) emitting fossil fuels; and because greenhouse gases such as CO 2, methane and N 2O (mostly from agriculture) cause global warming — making global warming a non-traditional environmental challenge.
Overview
Implications to all aspects of a nation-state's economy: The vast majority of the world economy relies on energy sources or manufacturing techniques that release greenhouse gases at almost every stage of production, transportation, storage, delivery & disposal while a consensus of the world's scientists attribute global warming to the release of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases.
This intimate linkage between global warming and economic vitality
implicates almost every aspect of a nation-state's economy;
Perceived lack of adequate advanced energy technologies: Fossil fuel
abundance and low prices continue to put pressure on the development of
adequate advanced energy technologies that can realistically replace the role of fossil fuels—as of 2010, over 91% of the world's energy is derived from fossil fuels and non-carbon-neutral technologies.
Without adequate and cost effective post-hydrocarbon energy sources, it
is unlikely the countries of the developed or developing world would
accept policies that would materially affect their economic vitality or
economic development prospects;
Industrialization of the developing world: As developing nationsindustrialize their energy needs increase and since conventional energy sources produce CO 2, the CO 2
emissions of developing countries are beginning to rise at a time when
the scientific community, global governance institutions and advocacy
groups are telling the world that CO 2 emissions should be decreasing. Without access to cost effective and abundant energy sources many developing countries see climate change as a hindrance to their unfettered economic development;
Metric selection (transparency) and perceived responsibility / ability to respond:
Among the countries of the world, disagreements exist over which
greenhouse gas emission metrics should be used like total emissions per
year, per capita emissions per year, CO2 emissions only, deforestation emissions, livestock emissions or even total historical emissions. Historically, the release of CO 2
has not been even among all nation-states, and nation-states have
challenges with determining who should restrict emissions and at what
point of their industrial development they should be subject to such
commitments;
Vulnerable developing countries and developed country legacy emissions:
Some developing nations blame the developed world for having created
the global warming crisis because it was the developed countries that
emitted most of the CO 2
over the twentieth century and vulnerable countries perceive that it
should be the developed countries that should pay to fix the problem;
Consensus-driven global governance models: The global governance
institutions that evolved during the 20th century are all consensus
driven deliberative forums where agreement is difficult to achieve and
even when agreement is achieved it is almost impossible to enforce;
Well organized and funded special-interest lobbying bodies: Special interest lobbying by well organized groups distort and amplify aspects of the challenge (fossil fuels lobby, other special interest lobbying);
Politicization of climate science: Although there is a consensus on the science of global warming and its likely effects—some special interests groups work to suppress the consensus
while others work to amplify the alarm of global warming. All parties
that engage in such acts add to the politicization of the science of
global warming. The result is a clouding of the reality of the global
warming problem.
The focus areas for global warming politics are Adaptation, Mitigation, Finance, Technology and Losses
which are well quantified and studied but the urgency of the global
warming challenge combined with the implication to almost every facet of
a nation-state's economic interests places significant burdens on the
established largely-voluntary global institutions that have developed
over the last century; institutions that have been unable to effectively
reshape themselves and move fast enough to deal with this unique
challenge. Rapidly developing countries which see traditional energy
sources as a means to fuel their development, well funded environmental
lobbying groups and an established fossil fuel energy paradigm boasting a
mature and sophisticated political lobbying infrastructure all combine
to make global warming politics extremely polarized. Distrust between
developed and developing countries at most international conferences
that seek to address the topic add to the challenges. Further adding to
the complexity is the advent of the Internet and the development of
media technologies like blogs and other mechanisms for disseminating
information that enable the exponential growth in production and
dissemination of competing points of view which make it nearly
impossible for the development and dissemination of an objective view
into the enormity of the subject matter and its politics.
Nontraditional environmental challenge
Traditional environmental challenges generally involve behavior by a
small group of industries which create products or services for a
limited set of consumers in a manner that causes some form of damage to
the environment which is clear. As an example, a gold mine might
release a dangerous chemical byproduct into a waterway that kills the
fish there: a clear environmental damage. By contrast, CO 2 is a naturally occurring colorless odorless trace gas that is essential to the biosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO 2)
is produced by all animals and utilized by plants and algae to build
their body structures. Plant structures buried for tens of millions of
years sequester carbon to form coal, oil and gas which modern industrial
societies find essential to economic vitality. Over 80% of the worlds
energy is derived from CO 2 emitting fossil fuels and over 91% of the world's energy is derived from non carbon-neutral energy sources. Scientists attribute the increases of CO 2 in the atmosphere to industrial emissions and scientists agree the increase in CO 2
causes global warming. This essential nature to the world's economies
combined with the complexity of the science and the interests of
countless interested parties make climate change a non-traditional
environmental challenge.
Carbon dioxide and a nation-state's economy
The vast majority of developed countries rely on CO 2 emitting energy sources for large components of their economic activity. Fossil fuel energy generally dominates the following areas of an OECD economy:
Perceived lack of adequate advanced low-carbon technologies
As of 2019 fast growing cities in developing countries lack alternatives to traditional high-carbon cement, and the hydrogen economy and carbon capture and storage are not widespread.
Industrialization of the developing world
The developing world sees economic and industrial development as a
natural right and the evidence shows that the developing world is
industrializing. The developing world is using CO 2
emitting fossil fuels as one of the primary energy sources to fuel
their development. At the same time the scientific consensus on climate
change and the existing global governance bodies like the United
Nations are urging all countries to decrease their CO 2
emissions. Developing countries logically resist this lobbying to
decrease their use of fossil fuels without significant concessions like:
Metric selection and perceived responsibility / ability to respond
There are significant disagreements over which metrics to use when tracking global warming and there are also disagreements over which countries should be subject to emissions restrictions.
While the biosphere is indifferent to whether the greenhouse
gases are produced by one country or by a multitude, the countries of
the world do express an interest in such matters. As such disagreements
arise on whether per capita emissions should be used or whether total
emissions should be used as a metric for each individual country.
Countries also disagree over whether a developing country should share
the same commitment as a developed country that has been emitting CO 2 and other greenhouse gases for close to a century.
Some developing countries expressly state that they require
assistance if they are to develop, which is seen as a right, in a
fashion that does not contribute CO 2
or other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Many times, these needs
materialize as profound differences in global conferences by countries
on the subject and the debates quickly turn to pecuniary matters.
Most developing countries are unwilling to accept limits on their CO 2 and other greenhouse gas emissions while most developed countries place very modest limits on their willingness to assist developing countries.
Vulnerable developing countries and developed country legacy emissions
Some developing countries fall under the category of vulnerable to
climate change. These countries involve small, sometimes isolated,
island nations, low lying nations, nations which rely on drinking water
from shrinking glaciers etc. These vulnerable countries see themselves
as the victims of climate change and some have organized themselves
under groups like the Climate Vulnerable Forum. These countries seek climate finance
from the developed and the industrializing countries to help them adapt
to the impending catastrophes that they see climate change will bring
upon them.
For these countries climate change is seen as an existential threat and
the politics of these countries is to seek reparation and adaptation
monies from the developed world and some see it as their right.
Governance
Global warming politics focus areas
Government policies regarding climate change and many official
reports on the subject usually revolve around one of the following:
Adaptation: social and other changes that must be undertaken to successfully adapt to climate change. Adaptation might encompass, but is not limited to, changes in agriculture and urban planning.
Finance: how countries will finance adaptation to and mitigation
of climate change, whether from public or private sources or from
wealth/technology transfers from developed countries to developing
countries and the management mechanisms for those monies.
Mitigation: steps and actions that the countries of the world can take to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Restoration: steps and actions that the countries of the world can take towards climate restoration to reduce the amount of CO2 causing the of climate change and aim at reducing global temperatures.
Technology: the technologies that are needed lower carbon emissions through increasing energy efficiency or replacement or CO 2
emitting technologies and technologies needed to adapt or mitigate
climate change. Also encompasses ways that developed countries can
support developing countries in adopting new technologies or increasing
efficiency.
Loss and damage: first articulated at the 2012 conference and in part based on the agreement that was signed at the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun.
It introduces the principle that countries vulnerable to the effects of
climate change may be financially compensated in future by countries
that fail to curb their carbon emissions.
Suppression of science: The U.S. government has also responded by silencing climate scientists and muzzling government whistleblowers. Political appointees
at a number of federal agencies prevented scientists from reporting
their findings, changed data modeling to arrive at conclusions they had
set out a prior to prove, and shut out the input of career scientists of the agencies.
Government Targeting of Climate Activists: Domestic
intelligence services of the U.S. have targeted environmental activists
and climate change organizations as "domestic terrorists," investigating
them, questioning them, and placing them on national "watchlists" that
could make it more difficult for them to board airplanes and could
instigate local law enforcement monitoring.
Stonewalling international cooperation: The United States has rejected international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol of 2005 to reduce production of greenhouse gasses, and has said that in 2020 it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, signed by all UN member countries.
In 2014, the UN with Peru and France created the Global Climate Action portal for writing and checking all the climate commitments
Voluntary emissions reductions
The perceived slow process of efforts for countries to agree to a
comprehensive global level binding agreements has led some countries to
seek independent/voluntary steps and focus on alternative high-value
voluntary activities like the creation of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Sweden
which seeks to regulate short-lived pollutants such as methane, black
carbon and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) which together are believed to
account for up to 1/3 of current global warming but whose regulation is
not as fraught with wide economic impacts and opposition. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
(CCAC) was launched on 16 February 2012 to regulate short-lived climate
pollutants (SLCPs) that together contribute up to 1/3 of global
warming. The coalition's creation is seen as a necessary and pragmatic
step given the slow pace of global climate change agreements under the
UNFCCC.
As part of the 2010 Cancún agreements, 76 developed and developing countries have made voluntary pledges to control their emissions of greenhouse gases.
These voluntary steps are seen by some as a new model where countries
pledge to voluntarily take action against global warming outside of
international treaties or obligations to other parties. This voluntary
mechanism, while promising, does not address many of the challenges seen
by the developing world in their efforts to mitigate global warming,
adapt to global warming, and increasingly to deal with losses and
damages that they directly attribute to global warming that they blame
on the developed world's historical emissions.
National Politics
In 2019 climate change became an increasingly important political issue in Germany. On the Australian Sunday morning political discussion show The Bolt Report, Richard Lindzen said in a 2011 interview that governments might use global warming as a rationale for additional taxes.
In 2019 the highest court in the Netherlands has upheld a landmark
ruling that defines protection from the devastation of climate change as
a human right and requires the government to be more ambitious in
cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
City Politics
City politicians advocating measures which have local short-term benefits for their constituents, such as low emission zones, may also have the co-benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Politics of scrapping fossil fuel subsidies
The International Monetary Fund periodically assesses global subsidies for fossil fuels
as part of its work on climate, and it found in a working paper
published in 2019, that the fossil fuel industry received $5.2 trillion
in subsidies in 2017. This amounts to 6.4 percent of the global gross
domestic product.
In line with these findings, the Central Banks of France and the United
Kingdom appealed to stop subsidies to fossil fuels and the European
Investment bank has announced it will stop financing fossil fuels
projects by the end of 2021.
According to the International Institute for Sustainable Development
most attempts to remove fossil fuel subsidies are successful and the
keys points are to: consult, compensate poor people affected by the
change, and implement step-by-step.
Politics of trees
As of 2019 the preservation of forests is emerging as a global political issue.
Special interests and lobbying by non-country interested parties
There are numerous special interest groups, PACs,
organizations, corporations who have public and private positions on
the multifaceted topic of global warming. The following is a partial
list of the types of special interest parties that have demonstrated an
interest in the politics of global warming:
Financial Institutions: Financial institutions generally
support policies against global warming, particularly the implementation
of carbon trading schemes and the creation of market mechanisms that
associate a price with carbon. These new markets would require trading
infrastructures which banking institutions are well positioned to
provide. Financial institutions would also be positioned well to
invest, trade and develop various financial instruments that they could
profit from through speculative positions on carbon prices and the use
of brokerage and other financial functions like insurance and derivative
instruments.
Environmental groups: Environmental advocacy groups generally favor strict restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Environmental groups, as activists, engage in raising awareness.
Fossil fuel companies: Traditional fossil fuel corporations
could benefit or lose from stricter global warming regulations. A
reduction in the use of fossil fuels could negatively impact fossil fuel
corporations. However, the fact that fossil fuel companies are a large source of energy, are also the primary source of CO 2,
and are engaged in energy trading might mean that their participation
in trading schemes and other such mechanisms might give them a unique
advantage and makes it unclear whether traditional fossil fuel companies
would all and always be against stricter global warming policies. As an example, Enron, a traditional gas pipeline company with a large trading desk heavily lobbied the government for the EPA to regulate CO2: they thought that they would dominate the energy industry if they could be at the center of energy trading.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency companies: companies
in wind, solar and energy efficiency generally support stricter global
warming policies. They would expect their share of the energy market to
expand as fossil fuels are made more expensive through trading schemes
or taxes.
Nuclear energy companies: nuclear energy companies could see a
renaissance in a world where fossil fuels are taxed directly or through
a carbon trading mechanism. For this reason, it is likely that nuclear
energy companies would support stricter global warming policies.
Electricity distribution companies: may lose from solar panels but benefit from electric vehicles.
Traditional retailers and marketers: traditional retailers,
marketers, and the general corporations respond by adopting policies
that resonate with their customers. If "being green" helps a general
corporation, then they could undertake modest programs to please and
better align with their customers. However, since the general
corporation does not make a profit from their particular position, it is
unlikely that they would strongly lobby either for or against a
stricter global warming policy position.
The various interested parties sometimes align with one another to
reinforce their message. Sometimes industries will fund specialty
nonprofit organizations to raise awareness and lobby on their behest.
The combinations and tactics that the various interested parties use
are nuanced and sometimes unlimited in the variety of their approaches
to promote their positions onto the general public.
Interaction of climate science and policy
Global warming has attracted the attention of central bank governors, as here with Mark Carney, appointed UN envoy for climate action in 2019.
The politicization of science in the sense of a manipulation of
science for political gains is a part of the political process. It is
part of the controversies about intelligent design (compare the Wedge strategy) or Merchants of Doubt,
scientists that are under suspicion to willingly obscure findings. e.g.
about issues like tobacco smoke, ozone depletion, global warming or
acid rain. However, e.g. in case of the Ozone depletion, global regulation based on the Montreal Protocol has been successful, in a climate of high uncertainty and against strong resistance while in case of Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol failed.
While the IPCC process tries to find and orchestrate the findings
of global (climate) change research to shape a worldwide consensus on
the matter it has been itself been object of a strong politicization. Anthropogenic climate change evolved from a mere science issue to a top global policy topic.
The IPCC process having built a broad science consensus does not hinder governments to follow different, if not opposing goals.
In case of the ozone depletion challenge, there was global regulation
already being installed before a scientific consensus was established.
A linear model of policy-making, based on a more knowledge we have, the better the political response will be does therefore not apply. Knowledge policy,
successfully managing knowledge and uncertainties as base of political
decision making requires a better understanding of the relation between
science, public (lack of) understanding and policy instead. Michael Oppenheimer
confirms limitations of the IPCC consensus approach and asks for
concurring, smaller assessments of special problems instead of large
scale attempts as in the previous IPCC assessment reports. He claims that governments require a broader exploration of uncertainties in the future.
History
Historical annual CO2 emissions for the top six countries and confederations.
CO2 emissions per capita from 1900 to 2017.
Historically, the politics of climate change dates back to several
conferences in the late 1960s and the early 1970s under NATO and
President Richard Nixon. 1979 saw the world's first World Climate Conference. 1985 was the year that the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer was created and two years later in 1987 saw the signing of the Montreal Protocol
under the Vienna convention. This model of using a Framework
conference followed by Protocols under the Framework was seen as a
promising governing structure that could be used as a path towards a
functional governance approach that could be used to tackle broad global
multi-nation/state challenges like global warming.
In 1991 the book The First Global Revolution was published by the Club of Rome
report which sought to connect environment, water availability, food
production, energy production, materials, population growth and other
elements into a blueprint for the twenty-first century: political
thinking was evolving to look at the world in terms of an integrated
global system not just in terms of weather and climate but in terms of
energy needs, food, population, etc.
1992 was the year that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
and the framework entered into force 21 March 1994. The conference
established a yearly meeting, a conference of the parties or COP meeting
to be held to continue work on Protocols which would be enforceable
treaties.
1995 saw the creation of the phrase "preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (also called avoiding dangerous climate change) first appeared in a policy document of a governmental organization, the IPCC's Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995. and in 1996 the European Union adopt a goal of limiting temperature rises to a maximum 2 °C rise in average global temperature.
Since the 1992 UNFCCC
treaty, eighteen COP sessions and eight CMP sessions have been held
under the existing structure. In that time, global CO2 emissions have
risen significantly and developing countries have grown significantly
with China replacing the United States
as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. To some, the UNFCCC has
made significant progress in helping the world become aware of the
perils of global warming and has moved the world forward in the
addressing of the challenge. To others, the UNFCCC process has been a
failure due to its inability to control the rise of greenhouse gas
emissions.
1969, on Initiative of US President Richard Nixon, NATO
tried to establish a third civil column and planned to establish itself
as a hub of research and initiatives in the civil region, especially on
environmental topics. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Nixons NATO delegate for the topic named acid rain and the greenhouse effect
as suitable international challenges to be dealt by NATO. NATO had
suitable expertise in the field, experience with international research
coordination and a direct access to governments. After an enthusiastic start on authority level, the German government reacted skeptically. The initiative was seen as an American attempt
to regain international terrain after the lost Vietnam War. The topics
and the internal coordination and preparation effort however gained
momentum in civil conferences and institutions in Germany and beyond
during the Brandt government.
1987: Montreal Protocol on restricting ozone layer-damaging CFCs demonstrates the possibility of coordinated international action on global environmental issues.
July 2005: 31st G8 summit has climate change on the agenda, but makes relatively little concrete progress
November/December 2005: United Nations Climate Change Conference;
the first meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol, alongside the
11th Conference of the Parties (COP11), to plan further measures for
2008–2012 and beyond.
30 October 2006: The Stern Review
is published. It is the first comprehensive contribution to the global
warming debate by an economist and its conclusions lead to the promise
of urgent action by the UK government to further curb Europe's CO 2
emissions and engage other countries to do so. It discusses the
consequences of climate change, mitigation measures to prevent it,
possible adaptation measures to deal with its consequences, and
prospects for international cooperation.
12 December 2015: World leaders meet in Paris, France for the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC. One hundred eighty seven countries eventually signed on to the Paris Agreement.
As of September 2016, 187 UNFCCC members have signed the treaty, 60 of
which have ratified it. The agreement will only enter into force
provided that 55 countries that produce at least 55% of the world's
greenhouse gas emissions ratify, accept, approve or accede to the
agreement; although the minimum number of ratifications has been
reached, the ratifying states do not produce the requisite percentage of
greenhouse gases for the agreement to enter into force.
.jpg)
