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Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Cumulus cloud

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Cumulus
GoldenMedows.jpg
Small cumulus humilis clouds that can have noticeable vertical development and clearly defined edges.
AbbreviationCu
SymbolCL 1.png
GenusCumulus (heap)
Species
  • Fractus
  • Humilis
  • Mediocris
  • Congestus
Variety
  • Radiatuse
Altitude200–2,000 m
(1,000–7,000 ft)
ClassificationFamily C (Low-level)
AppearanceLow-altitude, fluffy heaps of clouds with cotton-like appearance.
Precipitation cloud?Uncommon Rain, Snow or Snow pellets

Cumulus clouds are clouds which have flat bases and are often described as "puffy", "cotton-like" or "fluffy" in appearance. Their name derives from the Latin cumulo-, meaning heap or pile. Cumulus clouds are low-level clouds, generally less than 2,000 m (6,600 ft) in altitude unless they are the more vertical cumulus congestus form. Cumulus clouds may appear by themselves, in lines, or in clusters.

Cumulus clouds are often precursors of other types of clouds, such as cumulonimbus, when influenced by weather factors such as instability, moisture, and temperature gradient. Normally, cumulus clouds produce little or no precipitation, but they can grow into the precipitation-bearing congests or cumulonimbus clouds. Cumulus clouds can be formed from water vapour, supercooled water droplets, or ice crystals, depending upon the ambient temperature. They come in many distinct subforms and generally cool the earth by reflecting the incoming solar radiation. Cumulus clouds are part of the larger category of free-convective cumuliform clouds, which include cumulonimbus clouds. The latter genus-type is sometimes categorized separately as cumulonimbiform due to its more complex structure that often includes a cirriform or anvil top. There are also cumuliform clouds of limited convection that comprise stratocumulus (low-étage), altocumulus (middle-étage) and cirrocumulus (high-étage). These last three genus-types are sometimes classified separately as stratocumuliform.

Formation

Cumulus clouds form via atmospheric convection as air warmed by the surface begins to rise. As the air rises, the temperature drops (following the lapse rate), causing the relative humidity (RH) to rise. If convection reaches a certain level the RH reaches one hundred percent, and the "wet-adiabatic" phase begins. At this point a positive feedback ensues: since the RH is above 100%, water vapor condenses, releasing latent heat, warming the air and spurring further convection.

In this phase, water vapor condenses on various nuclei present in the air, forming the cumulus cloud. This creates the characteristic flat-bottomed puffy shape associated with cumulus clouds. The height of the cloud (from its bottom to its top) depends on the temperature profile of the atmosphere and of the presence of any inversions. During the convection, surrounding air is entrained (mixed) with the thermal and the total mass of the ascending air increases. Rain forms in a cumulus cloud via a process involving two non-discrete stages. The first stage occurs after the droplets coalesce onto the various nuclei. Langmuir writes that surface tension in the water droplets provides a slightly higher pressure on the droplet, raising the vapor pressure by a small amount. The increased pressure results in those droplets evaporating and the resulting water vapor condensing on the larger droplets. Due to the extremely small size of the evaporating water droplets, this process becomes largely meaningless after the larger droplets have grown to around 20 to 30 micrometres, and the second stage takes over. In the accretion phase, the raindrop begins to fall, and other droplets collide and combine with it to increase the size of the raindrop. Langmuir was able to develop a formula which predicted that the droplet radius would grow unboundedly within a discrete time period.

Description

Cumulus clouds seen from above

The liquid water density within a cumulus cloud has been found to change with height above the cloud base rather than being approximately constant throughout the cloud. In one particular study, the concentration was found to be zero at cloud base. As altitude increased, the concentration rapidly increased to the maximum concentration near the middle of the cloud. The maximum concentration was found to be anything up to 1.25 grams of water per kilogram of air. The concentration slowly dropped off as altitude increased to the height of the top of the cloud, where it immediately dropped to zero again.

Lines of Cumulus clouds over Brittany

Cumulus clouds can form in lines stretching over 480 kilometres (300 mi) long called cloud streets. These cloud streets cover vast areas and may be broken or continuous. They form when wind shear causes horizontal circulation in the atmosphere, producing the long, tubular cloud streets. They generally form during high-pressure systems, such as after a cold front.

The height at which the cloud forms depends on the amount of moisture in the thermal that forms the cloud. Humid air will generally result in a lower cloud base. In temperate areas, the base of the cumulus clouds is usually below 550 metres (1,800 ft) above ground level, but it can range up to 2,400 metres (7,900 ft) in altitude. In arid and mountainous areas, the cloud base can be in excess of 6,100 metres (20,000 ft).

Some cumulus mediocris clouds

Cumulus clouds can be composed of ice crystals, water droplets, supercooled water droplets, or a mixture of them. The water droplets form when water vapor condenses on the nuclei, and they may then coalesce into larger and larger droplets.

One study found that in temperate regions, the cloud bases studied ranged from 500 to 1,500 metres (1,600 to 4,900 ft) above ground level. These clouds were normally above 25 °C (77 °F), and the concentration of droplets ranged from 23 to 1,300 droplets per cubic centimetre (380 to 21,300 per cubic inch). This data was taken from growing isolated cumulus clouds that were not precipitating. The droplets were very small, ranging down to around 5 micrometres in diameter. Although smaller droplets may have been present, the measurements were not sensitive enough to detect them. The smallest droplets were found in the lower portions of the clouds, with the percentage of large droplets (around 20 to 30 micrometres) rising dramatically in the upper regions of the cloud. The droplet size distribution was slightly bimodal in nature, with peaks at the small and large droplet sizes and a slight trough in the intermediate size range. The skew was roughly neutral. Furthermore, large droplet size is roughly inversely proportional to the droplet concentration per unit volume of air.

In places, cumulus clouds can have "holes" where there are no water droplets. These can occur when winds tear the cloud and incorporate the environmental air or when strong downdrafts evaporate the water.

Subforms

Cumulus clouds come in four distinct species, cumulus humilis, mediocris, congestus, and fractus. These species may be arranged into the variety, cumulus radiatus; and may be accompanied by up to seven supplementary features, cumulus pileus, velum, virga, praecipitatio, arcus, pannus, and tuba.

The species Cumulus fractus is ragged in appearance and can form in clear air as a precursor to cumulus humilis and larger cumulus species-types; or it can form in precipitation as the supplementary feature pannus (also called scud) which can also include stratus fractus of bad weather. Cumulus humilis clouds look like puffy, flattened shapes. Cumulus mediocris clouds look similar, except that they have some vertical development. Cumulus congestus clouds have a cauliflower-like structure and tower high into the atmosphere, hence their alternate name "towering cumulus". The variety Cumulus radiatus forms in radial bands called cloud streets and can comprise any of the four species of cumulus.

Cumulus supplementary features are most commonly seen with the species congestus. Cumulus virga clouds are cumulus clouds producing virga (precipitation that evaporates while aloft), and cumulus praecipitatio produce precipitation that reaches the Earth's surface. Cumulus pannus comprise shredded clouds that normally appear beneath the parent cumulus cloud during precipitation. Cumulus arcus clouds have a gust front, and cumulus tuba clouds have funnel clouds or tornadoes. Cumulus pileus clouds refer to cumulus clouds that have grown so rapidly as to force the formation of pileus over the top of the cloud. Cumulus velum clouds have an ice crystal veil over the growing top of the cloud. There are also cumulus cataractagenitus. These are formed by waterfalls.

Forecast

Cumulus humilis clouds usually indicate fair weather. Cumulus mediocris clouds are similar, except that they have some vertical development, which implies that they can grow into cumulus congestus or even cumulonimbus clouds, which can produce heavy rain, lightning, severe winds, hail, and even tornadoes. Cumulus congestus clouds, which appear as towers, will often grow into cumulonimbus storm clouds. They can produce precipitation. Glider pilots often pay close attention to cumulus clouds, as they can be indicators of rising air drafts or thermals underneath that can suck the plane high into the sky—a phenomenon known as cloud suck.

Effects on climate

Cumulus congestus clouds compared against a cumulonimbus cloud in the background

Due to reflectivity, clouds cool the earth by around 12 °C (22 °F), an effect largely caused by stratocumulus clouds. However, at the same time, they heat the earth by around 7 °C (13 °F) by reflecting emitted radiation, an effect largely caused by cirrus clouds. This averages out to a net loss of 5 °C (9.0 °F). Cumulus clouds, on the other hand, have a variable effect on heating the earth's surface. The more vertical cumulus congestus species and cumulonimbus genus of clouds grow high into the atmosphere, carrying moisture with them, which can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. The researchers speculated that this might even produce a positive feedback, where the increasing upper atmospheric moisture further warms the earth, resulting in an increasing number of cumulus congestus clouds carrying more moisture into the upper atmosphere.

Relation to other clouds

Cumulus clouds are a genus of free-convective low-level cloud along with the related limited-convective cloud stratocumulus. These clouds form from ground level to 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) at all latitudes. Stratus clouds are also low-level. In the middle level are the alto- clouds, which consist of the limited-convective stratocumuliform cloud altocumulus and the stratiform cloud altostratus. Mid-level clouds form from 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) to 7,000 metres (23,000 ft) in polar areas, 7,000 metres (23,000 ft) in temperate areas, and 7,600 metres (24,900 ft) in tropical areas. The high-level cloud, cirrocumulus, is a stratocumuliform cloud of limited convection. The other clouds in this level are cirrus and cirrostratus. High clouds form 3,000 to 7,600 metres (9,800 to 24,900 ft) in high latitudes, 5,000 to 12,000 metres (16,000 to 39,000 ft) in temperate latitudes, and 6,100 to 18,000 metres (20,000 to 59,100 ft) in low, tropical latitudes. Cumulonimbus clouds, like cumulus congestus, extend vertically rather than remaining confined to one level.

Cirrocumulus clouds

A large field of cirrocumulus clouds in a blue sky, beginning to merge near the upper left.
A large field of cirrocumulus clouds
 

Cirrocumulus clouds form in patches and cannot cast shadows. They commonly appear in regular, rippling patterns or in rows of clouds with clear areas between. Cirrocumulus are, like other members of the cumuliform and stratocumuliform categories, formed via convective processes. Significant growth of these patches indicates high-altitude instability and can signal the approach of poorer weather. The ice crystals in the bottoms of cirrocumulus clouds tend to be in the form of hexagonal cylinders. They are not solid, but instead tend to have stepped funnels coming in from the ends. Towards the top of the cloud, these crystals have a tendency to clump together. These clouds do not last long, and they tend to change into cirrus because as the water vapor continues to deposit on the ice crystals, they eventually begin to fall, destroying the upward convection. The cloud then dissipates into cirrus. Cirrocumulus clouds come in four species which are common to all three genus-types that have limited-convective or stratocumuliform characteristics: stratiformis, lenticularis, castellanus, and floccus. They are iridescent when the constituent supercooled water droplets are all about the same size.

Altocumulus clouds

Altocumulus clouds
 

Altocumulus clouds are a mid-level cloud that forms from 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) high to 4,000 metres (13,000 ft) in polar areas, 7,000 metres (23,000 ft) in temperate areas, and 7,600 metres (24,900 ft) in tropical areas. They can have precipitation and are commonly composed of a mixture of ice crystals, supercooled water droplets, and water droplets in temperate latitudes. However, the liquid water concentration was almost always significantly greater than the concentration of ice crystals, and the maximum concentration of liquid water tended to be at the top of the cloud while the ice concentrated itself at the bottom. The ice crystals in the base of the altocumulus clouds and in the virga were found to be dendrites or conglomerations of dendrites while needles and plates resided more towards the top. Altocumulus clouds can form via convection or via the forced uplift caused by a warm front.

Stratocumulus clouds

Stratocumulus clouds
 

A stratocumulus cloud is another type of stratocumuliform cloud. Like cumulus clouds, they form at low levels and via convection. However, unlike cumulus clouds, their growth is almost completely retarded by a strong inversion. As a result, they flatten out like stratus clouds, giving them a layered appearance. These clouds are extremely common, covering on average around twenty-three percent of the earth's oceans and twelve percent of the earth's continents. They are less common in tropical areas and commonly form after cold fronts. Additionally, stratocumulus clouds reflect a large amount of the incoming sunlight, producing a net cooling effect. Stratocumulus clouds can produce drizzle, which stabilizes the cloud by warming it and reducing turbulent mixing.

Cumulonimbus clouds

Cumulonimbus clouds are the final form of growing cumulus clouds. They form when cumulus congestus clouds develop a strong updraft that propels their tops higher and higher into the atmosphere until they reach the tropopause at 18,000 metres (59,000 ft) in altitude. Cumulonimbus clouds, commonly called thunderheads, can produce high winds, torrential rain, lightning, gust fronts, waterspouts, funnel clouds, and tornadoes. They commonly have anvil clouds.

Horseshoe clouds

A short-lived horseshoe cloud may occur when a horseshoe vortex deforms a cumulus cloud.

Extraterrestrial

Some cumuliform and stratocumuliform clouds have been discovered on most other planets in the solar system. On Mars, the Viking Orbiter detected cirrocumulus and stratocumulus clouds forming via convection primarily near the polar icecaps. The Galileo space probe detected massive cumulonimbus clouds near the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. Cumuliform clouds have also been detected on Saturn. In 2008, the Cassini spacecraft determined that cumulus clouds near Saturn's south pole were part of a cyclone over 4,000 kilometres (2,500 mi) in diameter. The Keck Observatory detected whitish cumulus clouds on Uranus. Like Uranus, Neptune has methane cumulus clouds. Venus, however, does not appear to have cumulus clouds.

Astronaut training

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
A test subject being suited up for studies on the Reduced Gravity Walking Simulator. This position meant that a person's legs experienced only one sixth of their weight, which was the equivalent of being on the lunar surface. The purpose of this simulator was to study the subject while walking, jumping or running. (1963)

Astronaut training describes the complex process of preparing astronauts in regions around the world for their space missions before, during and after the flight, which includes medical tests, physical training, extra-vehicular activity (EVA) training, procedure training, rehabilitation process, as well as training on experiments they will accomplish during their stay in space.

Virtual and physical training facilities have been integrated to familiarize astronauts with the conditions they will encounter during all phases of flight and prepare astronauts for a microgravity environment. Special considerations must be made during training to ensure a safe and successful mission, which is why the Apollo astronauts received training for geology field work on the Lunar surface and why research is being conducted on best practices for future extended missions, such as the trip to Mars.

Purpose of training

Training flow

The selection and training of astronauts are integrated processes to ensure the crew members are qualified for space missions. The training is categorized into five objectives to train the astronauts on the general and specific aspects: basic training, advanced training, mission-specific training, onboard training, and proficiency maintenance training. The trainees must learn medicine, language, robotics and piloting, space system engineering, the organization of space systems, and the acronyms in aerospace engineering during the basic training. While 60% to 80% of the astronauts will experience space motion sickness, including pallor, cold sweating, vomiting, and anorexia, the astronaut candidates are expected to overcome the sickness. During the advanced training and the mission specific training, astronauts will learn about the operation of specific systems and skills required associated with their assigned positions in a space mission. The mission specific training typically requires 18 months to complete for Space Shuttle and International Space Station crews. It is important to ensure the astronauts’ well-being, physical and mental health prior, during, and after the mission period. Proficiency maintenance aims to help the crew members to maintain a minimum level of performance, including topics such as extravehicular activity, robotics, language, diving, and flight training.

Launch and landing

The effects of launching and landing has various effects on astronauts, with the most significant effects that occur being space motion sickness, orthostatic intolerance, and cardiovascular events.

Space motion sickness is an event that can occur within minutes of being in changing gravity environments (i.e. from 1g on Earth prior to launch to more than 1g during launch, and then from microgravity in space to hypergravity during re-entry and again to 1g after landing). The symptoms range from drowsiness and headaches, to nausea and vomiting. There are three general categories of space motion sickness:

  • Mild: One to several transient symptoms, no operational impact
  • Moderate: Several symptoms of persistent nature, minimal operational impact
  • Severe: Several symptoms of persistent nature, significant impact on performance

About three-fourths of astronauts experience space motion sickness, with effects rarely exceeding two days. There is a risk for post-flight motion sickness, however this is only significant following long-duration space missions.

Post-flight, following exposure to microgravity, the vestibular system, located in the inner ear is disrupted because of the microgravity-induced unresponsiveness of the otoliths which are small calcareous concretions that sense body postures and are responsible for ensuring proper balance. In most cases, this leads to some postflight postural illusions.

Cardiovascular events represent important factors during the three phases of a space mission. They can be divided in:

  • Pre-existing cardiovascular diseases: these are typically selected-out during astronaut selection, but if they are present in an astronaut they can worsen over the course of the spaceflight.
  • Cardiovascular events and changes occurring during spaceflight: these are due to body fluids shift and redistribution, heart rhythm disturbances and decrease in maximal exercise capacity in the micro gravity environment. These effects can potentially lead the crew to be severely incapacitated upon return to a gravitational environment and thus unable to egress a spacecraft without assistance.
  • Orthostatic intolerance leading to syncope during post-flight stand test.

On-orbit operations

Astronauts are trained in preparation for the conditions of launch as well as the harsh environment of space. This training aims to prepare the crew for events falling under two broad categories: events relating to operation of the spacecraft (internal events), and events relating to the space environment (external events)

An internal view of ESA's Columbus module training mockup, located at the European Astronaut Centre in Cologne, Germany. Astronauts must familiarize themselves with all the spacecraft components during their training.

During training, astronauts are familiarized with the engineering systems of the spacecraft including spacecraft propulsion, spacecraft thermal control, and life support systems. In addition to this, astronauts receive training in orbital mechanics, scientific experimentation, earth observation, and astronomy. This training is particularly important for missions when an astronaut will encounter multiple systems (for example on the International Space Station (ISS)). Training is performed in order to prepare astronauts for events that may pose a hazard to their health, the health of the crew, or the successful completion of the mission. These types of events may be: failure of a critical life support system, capsule depressurization, fire, and other life-threatening events. In addition to the need to train for hazardous events, astronauts will also need to train to ensure the successful completion of their mission. This could be in the form of training for EVA, scientific experimentation, or spacecraft piloting.

External events

External events refers more broadly to the ability to live and work in the extreme environment of space. This includes adaptation to microgravity (or weightlessness), isolation, confinement, and radiation. The difficulty associated with living and working in microgravity include spatial disorientation, motion sickness, and vertigo. During long-duration missions, astronauts will often experience isolation and confinement. This has been known to limit performance of astronaut crews and hence training aims to prepare astronauts for such challenges. The long-term effects of radiation on crews is still largely unknown. However, it is theorized that astronauts on a trip to Mars will likely receive more than 1000x the radiation dosage of a typical person on earth. As such, present and future training must incorporate systems and processes for protecting astronauts against radiation.

Science experiments

Scientific experimentation has historically been an important element of human spaceflight, and is the primary focus of the International Space Station. Training on how to successfully carry out these experiments is an important part of astronaut training, as it maximizes the scientific return of the mission. Once on-orbit, communication between astronauts and scientists on the ground can be limited, and time is strictly apportioned between different mission activities. It is vital that astronauts are familiar with their assigned experiments in order to complete them in a timely manner, with as little intervention from the ground as possible.

For missions to the ISS, each astronaut is required to become proficient at one hundred or more experiments. During training, the scientists responsible for the experiments do not have direct contact with the astronauts who will be carrying them out. Instead, scientists instruct trainers who in turn prepare the astronauts for carrying out the experiment. Much of this training is done at the European Astronaut Center.

For human experiments, the scientists describe their experiments to the astronauts who then choose whether to participate on board the ISS. For these experiments, the astronauts will be tested before, during, and after the mission to establish a baseline and determine when the astronaut returned to the baseline.

A researcher using VR headset to investigate ideas for controlling rovers on a planet.

Purpose of virtual reality training

Virtual reality training for astronauts intends to give the astronauts candidates an immersive training experience. Virtual reality has been explored as a technology to artificially expose astronauts to space conditions and procedures prior to going into space. Using virtual reality, astronauts can be trained and evaluated on performing an EVA (extravehicular activity) with all the necessary equipment and environmental features simulated. This modern technology also allows the scenario to be changed on the go, such as to test emergency protocols. The VR training systems can reduce the effects of the space motion sickness through a process of habituation. Preflight VR training can be a countermeasure for space motion sickness and disorientation due to the weightlessness of the microgravity environment. When the goal is to act as a practice tool, virtual reality is commonly explored in conjunction with robotics and additional hardware to increase the effect of immersion or the engagement of the trainee.

Training by region

United States

At NASA, following the selection phase, the so-called "AsCans" (Astronaut candidates) have to undergo up to two years of training/indoctrination period to become fully qualified astronauts. Initially, all AsCans must go through basic training to learn both technical and soft skills. There are 16 different technical courses in:

Astronauts train in the Neutral Buoyancy Facility at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas
 
The Crew of STS-135 practices rendezvous and docking with the ISS in the Systems Engineering Simulator at the Johnson Space Center on June 28, 2011 in Houston, Texas.

AsCans initially go through Basic Training, where they are trained on Soyuz, and ISS systems, flight safety and operations, as well as land or water survival. Pilot AsCans will receive training on NASA's T-38 Trainer Jet. Furthermore, because modern space exploration is done by a consortium of different countries and is a very publicly visible area, astronauts received professional and cultural training, as well as language courses (specifically in Russian).

Following completion of Basic Training candidates proceed to NASA's Advanced Training. AsCans are trained on life-sized models to get a feel of what they will be doing in space. This was done both through the use of the Shuttle Training Aircraft while it was still operational and is done through simulation mock-ups. The shuttle training aircraft was exclusively used by the commander and pilot astronauts for landing practices until the retirement of the Shuttle, while advanced simulation system facilities are used by all the candidates to learn how to work and successfully fulfill their tasks in the space environment. Simulators and EVA training facilities help candidates to best prepare their different mission operations. In particular, vacuum chambers, parabolic flights, and neutral buoyancy facilities (NBF) allow candidates to get acclimated to the micro gravity environment, particularly for EVA. Virtual reality is also becoming increasingly used as a tool to immerse AsCans into the space environment.

The final phase is the Intensive Training. It starts at about three months prior to launch, preparing candidates for their assigned mission. Flight-specific integrated simulations are designed to provide a dynamic testing ground for mission rules and flight procedures. The final Intensive Training joint crew/flight controller training is carried out in parallel with mission planning. This phase is where candidates will undergo mission specific operational training, as well as experience with their assigned experiments. Crew medical officer training is also included to effectively intervene with proactive and reactive actions in case of medical issues.

Notable training facilities

It can take up to two years for an AsCan to become formally qualified as an astronaut. Usually, the training process are completed with various training facilities available in NASA: Space training facilities try to replicate or simulate the experience of spaceflight in a spacecraft as closely and realistically as possible. This includes full-size cockpit replicas mounted on hydraulic rams and controlled by state of the art computer technology; elaborate watertanks for simulation of weightlessness; and devices used by scientists to study the physics and environment of outer space.

  • Space Vehicle Mock-up Facility (SVMF): located in the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX. The SVMF consists of life-size models of vehicles of the ISS, the Orion, and different other commercial programs. The purpose of SVMF is to provide a unique simulated experience for astronauts to get familiar with their tasks in space vehicles. Potential training projects include preparation of emergency, on-orbit intra-vehicular maintenance, and airlock operations. The facility also provides experiences for astronauts in real-time communications with the ground team for mission support.
  • KC-135 Stratotanker: the KC-135 is an air-refueling plane designed by Boeing. Known as the “Weightless Wonder” or the “Vomit Comet”, this plane is the most famous of its kind, which has served to simulate reduced or microgravity environments for NASA astronauts since 1994. The “roller coaster” maneuvers that the plane is capable of doing provide people as well as equipment onboard about 20–25 seconds of weightlessness.
  • The Precision Air-Bearing Floor (PABF): located in the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX. Because of the microgravity environment in space, the resulting lack of friction posts difficulties for astronauts to move and stop large objects. The PABF is a “flat floor” that uses compressed air to suspend typical hardwares or mock-ups that astronauts may encounter in space above the ground. It is used to simulate low-friction environments for astronauts to learn to move large objects.
  • The Neutral Buoyancy Lab: (NBL): located in the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX. Through a combination of weighting and floating effects, the NBL creates a balance between the tendencies to sink and to float, and therefore simulating the experience of weightlessness. In the NBL, several full-size models of the space vehicles are present in a large “water tank”. Unlike the SVMF, the NBL helps astronauts train on projects such as maintenance, but outside of the space vehicle.

Europe

Astronaut training in Europe is carried out by the European Astronaut Centre (EAC), headquartered in Cologne, Germany. European training has three phases: Basic training, Advanced training, and Increment Specific Training.

Soyuz capsule simulator located at the EAC in Cologne, Germany. ESA astronauts will simulate operations in the capsule at the EAC.

For all ESA selected astronauts, Basic Training begins at the EAC headquarters. This section of the training cycle has four separate training blocks that last 16 months. Astronauts will receive an orientation on the major spacefaring nations, their space agencies, and all major crewed and uncrewed space programs. Training in this phase also looks into applicable laws and policies of the space sector. Technical (including engineering, astrodynamics, propulsion, orbital mechanics, etc.) and scientific (including human physiology, biology, earth observation, and astronomy) basics are introduced, to ensure that all new astronauts have the required base level of knowledge. Training is done on ISS operations and facilities, including an introduction to all major operating systems on board the ISS that are required for its functionality as a crewed space research laboratory. This phase also covers in-depth systems operations for all spacecraft that service the ISS (e.g. Soyuz, Progress, Automatic Transfer Vehicle (ATV), and the H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV)), as well as ground control and launch facility training. This training phase also focuses on skills such as robotic operations, rendezvous and docking, Russian language courses, human behavior and performance, and finally a PADI open water scuba diving course. This scuba course provides basic EVA training at ESA's NBF before moving onto the larger NASA training facility at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center.

Advanced Training includes a much more in-depth look into the ISS, including learning how to service and operate all systems. Enhanced science training is also implemented at this time to ensure all astronauts can perform science experiments on board the ISS. This phase takes around one year to complete and training is completed across the ISS partner network, no longer only at the EAC. It is only upon completion of this phase that astronauts are assignment to a spaceflight.

Increment-Specific Training starts only after an astronaut has been assigned to a flight. This phase lasts 18 months and prepares them for their role on their assigned mission. During this phase crew members as well as backup crews will train together. The crew tasks on the ISS are individually tailored, with consideration to the astronaut's particular experience and professional background. There are three different user levels for all on-board equipment (i.e. user level, operator level, and specialist level). A crew member can be a specialist on systems while also only being an operator or user on others, hence why the training program is individually tailored. Increment Specific Training also includes training to deal with off-nominal situations. Astronauts will also learn how to run the experiments that are specifically scheduled for their assigned missions.

Russia

The grounds of the Gagarin Cosmonauts Training Center

Training for cosmonauts falls into three phases: General Space Training, Group Training, and Crew Training. General Space Training lasts about two years and consists of classes, survival training, and a final exam which determines whether a cosmonaut will be a test or research cosmonaut. The next year is devoted to Group Training where cosmonauts specialize in the Soyuz or ISS as well as professional skills. The final phases, the Crew Training phase, lasts a year and a half and is dedicated to detailed vehicle operations procedures, ISS training, and the English language.

Training primarily takes place at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center. The center facilities have full size mockups of all major Soviet and Russian spacecraft including the ISS. As with the ISS astronauts, cosmonauts train in the US, Germany, Japan, and Canada for specific training in the various ISS modules.

Japan

The Japanese human spaceflight program has historically focused on training astronauts for Space Shuttle missions. As such, training previously took place at NASA's Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, and followed that of NASA astronauts and other international participants in the Space Shuttle program.

H-II rocket outside the Tsukuba Space Center where training of JAXA astronauts takes place

Since the development of domestic training facilities at the Tsukuba Space Center, training has increasingly taken place in Japan. With Japan's participation in the ISS, the training of Japanese astronauts follows a similar structure to that of other ISS partners. Astronauts carry out 1.5 years of Basic Training mainly at Tsukuba, followed by 1.5–2 years of Advanced Training at Tsukuba and ISS partner sites. Training for any international ISS astronauts involving the Kibo module will also be carried out at Tsukuba Space Center.

Advanced Training is followed by Increment-Specific Training, which, along with any Kibo training, will be carried out at Tsukuba. EVA training for Kibo takes place in the Weightless Environment Test System (WETS). WETS is a Neutral Buoyancy Facility featuring a full-scale mock-up of the Kibo module on the ISS. The Tsukuba Space Center also includes medical facilities for assessing suitability of candidates, an isolation chamber for simulating some of the mental and emotional stressors of long duration spaceflight, and a hypobaric chamber for training in hull breach or Life Support System failure scenarios resulting in a reduction or loss of air pressure.

China

Although official detail of the selection process for the Shenzhou program is not available, what is known is that candidates are chosen by the Chinese National Space Administration from the Chinese air force and must be between 25 and 30 years of age, with a minimum of 800 hours flying time, and a degree-level education. Candidates must be between 160 cm and 172 cm in height, and between 50 kg and 70 kg in weight.

For China's Shenzhou astronauts, training begins with a year-long program of education in the basics of spaceflight. During this period, candidates are also introduced to human physiology and psychology. The second phase of training, lasting nearly 3 years involves extensive training in piloting the Shenzhou vehicle in nominal and emergency modes. The third and final stage of training is mission specific training, and lasts approximately 10 months. During this phase of training, astronauts are trained in the high fidelity Shenzhou trainer, as well as the Neutral Buoyancy Facility located at the Astronaut Center of China (ACC), in Beijing. As well as time spent in the Neutral Buoyancy Facility (NBF), training for EVA takes place in a high vacuum, low temperature chamber that simulates the environmental conditions of space. At all stages of training, astronauts undergo physical conditioning, including time in a human centrifuge located at the ACC, and a program of micro gravity flights, carried out in Russia.

India

The Indian human space flight program still awaits a formal go ahead. Once cleared the mission is expected to take two Indians in a Soyuz-type orbital vehicle into low Earth orbit. The training for these astronauts should be based on the lessons learned from training India's only Cosmonaut Wing Commander Rakesh Sharma (See Salyut-7 1984) and through India's international co-operation with NASA and Roscosmos. This would allow India to gain insights from their rich experiences in human spaceflight. There also lies a possibility that India may go proceed through its human spaceflight program individually, necessitating the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to develop its own training program. For astronaut training, India is deciding a place which is at a distance of 8 to 10 km from Kempegowda international airport. This land is under the ownership of ISRO. Astronaut training and biomedical engineering centers will be built on it. Though India's first man mission training will take place in USA or in Russia, this place can be used for future training. Moreover, center will have chambers for radiation regulation, thermal cycling and centrifugal for the acceleration training.

Future training

Suborbital astronaut training

Ecuadorian Civilian Space Agency (EXA)

While the first generation of non-government spaceflight astronauts will likely perform suborbital trajectories, currently companies like Virgin Galactic and Xcor Aerospace are developing proprietary suborbital astronaut training programs. However, the first official Suborbital Astronaut Training program was a joint effort between two government agencies. The Ecuadorian Air Force and the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center developed the ASA/T (Advanced Suborbital Astronaut Training) program which lasted up to 16 months between 2005 to 2007 and focused on command and research duties during short missions with suborbital trajectories up to 180 kilometers. This program had one Ecuadorian citizen graduate in 2007, the Ecuadorian Space Agency made a call for a new class of ASA/T training candidates, accordingly to the EXA, they will focus on renting commercial suborbital vehicles in order to perform crewed space research

Commercial astronauts

Human centrifuge at DLR in Cologne, Germany used for human physiological tests. The high accelerations experienced during suborbital flights may necessitate testing or even training on human centrifuges to determine if participants are fit for space flight

Looking ahead, the emergence of commercial space tourism will necessitate new standards for flight participants that currently do not exist. These standards will be to ensure that medical screenings are done properly in order to ensure safe and successful flights. This process will differ from that for space agency astronauts because the goal is not to fly the best individual, but to ensure a safe flight for the passengers. The main considerations for this type of travel will be:

  • What type and extent of training is sufficient?
  • Who will qualify space tourists as fit for travel?
  • How will new regulations comply with existing medical boards?
  • What selection-out criteria need to be employed to reduce dangers to space tourists?

Medical regulations for commercial space flight might mitigate commercial space company risk by selecting only those capable of passing standard medical criteria, as opposed to allowing anyone who can purchase a ticket to fly. The first generation of commercial space flight will likely be suborbital trajectories which invoke significant acceleration changes, causing cardiovascular and pulmonary issues. Because of this any future medical criteria for commercial spaceflight participants needs to focus specifically on the detrimental effects of rapidly changing gravitational levels, and which individuals will be capable of tolerating this.

A fundamentals of scientist-astronaut formative program along with additional Bioastronautics, Extravehicular activity, Space Flight Operations, Flight Test Engineering and Upper-Atmospheric Research courses have been conducted by Project PoSSUM scientist-astronaut candidates since 2015.  As of January 2021, the program has attracted members from 46 different countries and published research on mesospheric dynamics, human performance in space suits, microgravity research in various fields, and post-landing environments. The programs are run by the International Institute of Astronautical Sciences that has also partnered with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Final Frontier Design Spacesuits, Survival Systems USA, National Research Council of Canada, Canadian Space Agency and the National Association of Underwater Instructors.

Current research on fitness training and strategies for commercial astronauts conducted by Astrowright Spaceflight Consulting, the first commercial firm to offer dedicated fitness training for space tourists, suggests that conventional fitness training is inadequate to support safe movement in microgravity, and that training utilizing reduced points of stability should be emphasized.

Long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars

Astronaut during virtual reality training

Astronauts for long term missions–such as those to the Moon or Mars–need to carry out multiple tasks and duties, because on such missions the astronauts will need to function largely autonomously, and will need to be proficient in many different areas. For these types of missions, the training to prepare astronauts will likely include training as doctors, scientists, engineers, technicians, pilots, and geologists. In addition there will be a focus on the psychological aspects of long-duration missions where crew is largely isolated.

Currently a six-month mission to the ISS requires up to five years of astronaut training. This level of training is to be expected and likely to be expanded upon for future space exploration missions. It may also include in-flight training aspects. It may be possible that the ISS will be used as a long-duration astronaut training facility in the future.

A powerful tool for astronaut training will be the continuing use of analog environments, including NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NOAA NEEMO), NASA's Desert Research and Technology Studies (Desert RATS), Envihab (planned), Flight Analog Research Unit, Haughton-Mars Project (HMP), or even the ISS (in-flight). In fact, at NEEMO a total of 15 mission astronauts (known as aquanauts) have been trained for future missions to asteroids. The use of virtual reality will also continue to be used as a means of training astronauts in a cost-effective manner, particularly for operations such as extra-vehicular activity (EVA).

Robonaut2 onboard ISS

These missions are not completely independent without the presence of robots. This opens up a new avenue towards Human-Robot Interaction which has to be thoroughly understood and practised to develop a harmonious relationship between astronauts and robots. These robots would aid the astronauts from being their personal assistants to next generation of extreme environment explorers. Currently there is a robot on the ISS aiding the astronauts in their mammoth tasks with a human touch. Intercultural and human robot interaction training is the need of the hour for long duration missions.

Training also has to be evolved for future Moon landings to a human mission to Mars. Factors like crew dynamics, crew size, and crew activities play a crucial role as these missions would last from one year to Moon to three years on Mars. The training required for such missions has to be versatile and easy to learn, adapt, and improvise.

A journey to Mars will require astronauts to remain in the crew capsule for nine months. The monotony and isolation of the journey present new psychological challenges. The long period spent in the crew capsule is comparable to other forms of solitary confinement, such as in submarines or Antarctic bases. Being in an isolated and confined environment generates stress, interpersonal conflict, and other behavioral and mental problems. However, natural scenery and communication with loved ones has shown to relax and lessen these effects. A Network of Social Interactions for Bilateral Life Enhancement (ANSIBLE), which provides natural scenery and socialization in a virtual reality environment, is being researched as a solution to behavioral health.

Researchers are looking into how current mental health tools can be adjusted to help the crew face stressors that will arise in an isolated, confined environment (ICE) during extended missions. The International Space Station uses a behavioral conflict management system known as the Virtual Space Station (VSS) to minimize conflict between crew members and address psychological challenges. The program has modules that focus on relationship management, stress and depression that guide astronaut’s through a virtual therapy session in space.

Virtual reality astronaut training

History

Virtual reality technologies first came to a commercial release in the 1990s. It is not until then did people realize that VR can be used in training astronauts. The earlier VR gears for astronaut training are dedicated to enhance the communication between robot arm operators and the astronaut during Extravehicular Activities (EVA). It brings EVA crew members and robot arm operators together, in live, even when they are on board a spacecraft. It is also used to replace some of the oversized models that cannot fit in the Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL).

In 1993, astronauts were trained and evaluated on working on the Hubble Space Telescope through a virtual reality training tool, Research in Human Factors Aspects of Enhanced Virtual Environments for EVA Training and Simulation (RAVEN). However, the aim of RAVEN was not to train astronauts but to evaluate the efficacy of training using virtual reality versus underwater and other setup.

Through the years of technological development in VR, the hardware for the VR Lab in NASA has also significantly improved. Both the material and the resolution of the display are being renovated:

  • 1991: Liquid-Crystal Display (LCD) - 320x420
  • 1992: Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) - 1280x1024
  • 2005: Micro Organic Light-Emitting Diode (micro-OLED) - 800x600
  • 2012: LCD - 1280x720
  • 2015: OLED - 1920x1080

Virtual reality has also been adopted to a much wider range of fields in space exploration throughout the history of technology renovation. The newer applications of VR include but are not limited to:

  • Mission planning
  • Cooperative and interactive designing
  • Engineering problem-solving
  • Data modeling
Astronauts Tom Marshburn, left, and Dave Wolf train for a spacewalk in the Integrated EVA-RMS Virtual Reality Simulator Facility at Johnson Space Center

Current virtual reality training

While the extravehicular activities (EVAs) training facility can simulate the space conditions, including pressure and lighting, the Micro-g environment cannot be fully reconstructed in the Earth’s 1-G environment. Virtual reality is utilized during EVA training to increase the immersion of the training process. NASA Johnson Space Center has facilities such as the Space Vehicle Mockup Facility (SVMF), Virtual Reality Laboratory (VRL), and Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL).

The SVMF uses the Partial Gravity Simulator (PGS) and air bearing floor (PABF) to simulate the zero-gravity and the effects of Newton's laws of motion. Similar training systems originated from the Apollo and Gemini training. Virtual reality enhances an astronaut’s senses during training modules like fluid quick disconnect operations, spacewalks, and the orbiter’s Space Shuttle thermal protection system (TPS) repairs.

NASA Virtual Reality Laboratory utilizes virtual reality to supplement the Simplified Aid For EVA Rescue (SAFER) as simplified aid. The VR training offers a graphical 3-dimensional simulation of the International Space Station (ISS) with a headset, haptic feedback gloves, and motion tracker. In 2018, two Expedition 55 astronauts Richard R. Arnold and Andrew J. Feustel, received virtual reality training and performed the 210th spacewalk. The Virtual Reality Laboratory offers astronauts an immersive VR experience for spacewalks before launching into space. The training process combines a graphical rendering program that replicates the ISS and a device called the Charlotte Robot that allows astronauts to visually explore their surroundings while interacting with an object.  The Charlotte robot is a simple device with a metal arm attached to the side that allows a user to interact with the device. The user wears haptic feedback gloves with force sensors that send signals to a central computer. In response, the central computer maneuvers the device using a web of cables and calculates how it would act in space through physics. While objects are weightless in space, an astronaut has to be familiar with an object's forces of inertia and understand how the object will respond to simple motions to avoid losing it in space. Training can be completed individually or with a partner. This allows astronauts to learn how to interact with mass and moments of inertia in a microgravity environment.

The Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) has advantages in simulating a zero-gravity environment and reproducing the sensation of floating in space. The training method is achieved by constructing a low gravity environment through Maintaining the Natural buoyancy in one of the largest pools in the world. The NBL pool used to practice extravehicular activities or spacewalks is 62 meters (202 feet) long, 31 meters (102 feet) wide, and 12 meters (40 feet) deep, with a capacity of 6.2 million gallons. Underwater head-mounted display virtual reality headset is used to provide visual information during the training with a frame rate of 60 fps and screen resolution of 1280 by 1440. The underwater VR training system has a reduced training cost because of the accessibility of the VR applications, and astronauts need less time to complete the assigned practice task.

Despite the NASA training modules, commercial spaceflight training also uses virtual reality technology to improve their training systems. Boeing’s virtual reality team develops a training system for Boeing Starliner to train astronauts to transport between the Earth and the ISS. The VR training system can simulate high-speed situations and emergency scenarios, for instance, launching, entering the space, and landing at an unexpected location.

Advantages of virtual reality training

Visual reorientation is a phenomenon that happens when the perception of an object changes because of the changing visual field and cues. This illusion will alter the astronaut’s perception of the orienting force of gravity and then lose spatial direction. The astronauts must develop good spatial awareness and orientation to overcome visual reorientation. In the traditional disorientation training, for instance, the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center trains the astronaut by simulating a microgravity environment through a centrifuge. In contrast, VR training requires less gear, training the astronauts more economically.

Virtual reality training utilizes the mix-realistic interaction devices, such as cockpits in flight simulators can reduce the simulation sickness and increase user movement. Compared to traditional training, VR training performs better to minimize the effects of space motion sickness and spatial disorientation. Astronauts who received VR training can perform the task 12% faster, with a 53% decrease in nausea symptoms.

While VR is used in astronaut training on the ground, immersive technology also contributes to on-orbit training. VR head-mounted display can help the astronaut maintain physical well-being as part of proficiency maintenance training. Moreover, VR systems are used to ensure the mental health of the crewmembers. The simulations of social scenarios can mitigate the stress and establish the connectedness under the isolated and confined environment (ICE).

Virtual reality acclimates astronauts to environments in space such as the International Space Station before leaving earth. While astronauts can familiarize themselves with the ISS during training in the NBL, they are only able to see certain sections of the station. While it prepares astronauts for the tasks they are performing in space, it does not necessarily give them a full spatial understanding of the station’s layout. That’s where Virtual Reality plays an important role. The Virtual Reality Lab uses a system known as the Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphics program (DOUG) to model the ISS’s exterior including decals, fluid lines, and electrical lines, so that the crew can acclimate to their new environment. The level of detail goes beyond the exterior of the station. When a user enters space, they see pure black until their pupil’s dilate and the sky fills with stars in an occurrence called the ‘blooming effect’.

Disadvantages of virtual reality training

While virtual reality prepares astronauts for the unfamiliar tasks they will face in outer space, the training is unable to replicate the psychological and emotional stress that astronauts face on a daily basis. This is because virtual tasks do not hold the same repercussions as the real task and the technology does not produce strong psychological effects, like claustrophobia, that often occurs in enclosed environments.

Stimulating a virtual microgravity environment can be costly due to additional equipment requirements. Unlike commercialized virtual reality, the equipment that NASA uses cannot be produced at a large scale because the systems require supplemental technology. Several VR programs work in combination with the Neutral Buoyancy Lab or the Charlotte Robot in the Virtual Reality Lab which requires expensive facilities and does not eliminate the travel component that VR can minimize. NASA’s Charlotte robot is restricted by cables that simulate the microgravity environment and the Virtual Reality Lab only has two machines in their possession. This particular training system requires a virtual glovebox system (GVX) that has been incorporated into training at NASA and the EVA virtual system at the Astronaut Center of China. Using sensors embedded in the fabric, the gloves can sense when the wearer  decides to  grasp an object or release it, but the technology needs to be further developed to integrate precise user movements into virtual programs. These gloves have been reported to be uncomfortable and only capture limited movements. Full-body motion sensors have also been incorporated into training and tend to be expensive but necessary in order to have effective tactile feedback in response to the astronauts movements. While virtual reality programs have been developed that do not require full-body sensors, the absence reduces the degree to which a user can interact with the virtual world.

Future

The primary focus of future research of virtual reality technologies in space exploration is to develop a method of simulating a microgravity environment. Although it has been a goal since the beginning of VR being used in astronaut training, minor progress has been made. The current setup uses a bungee rope attached to a person’s feet, a swing attached to the body, and finally a head mounted VR display. However, from participants in experiments that use this setup to simulate reduced gravity environments, they only experience the feel of moving around in space with the help of VR, but the experience does not resemble a real zero-gravity environment in outer space. Specifically, the pressure from the bungee rope and the swing because of the participants’ own weight creates an unreal and unpleasant feeling. The current technology may be enough for the general public to experience what moving around in space is like, but it is still far from being formally used as an astronaut training tool.

These efforts of simulating micro-gravity serve a similar purpose of creating an increasingly immersive environment for astronaut training. In fact, this is a developing trend for the entire VR industry. The ultimate scene VR experience that we are imagining will eventually be marked by the elimination between the real and the virtual world.

Prophecy

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

16th century woodcut of a soothsayer delivering a prophecy to a king, deriving it from stars, fishes, and noises from the mountains

In religion, a prophecy is a message that has been communicated to a person (typically called a prophet) by a supernatural entity. Prophecies are a feature of many cultures and belief systems and usually contain divine will or law, or preternatural knowledge, for example of future events. They can be revealed to the prophet in various ways depending on the religion and the story, such as visions, divination, or direct interaction with divine beings in physical form. Stories of prophetic deeds sometimes receive considerable attention and some have been known to survive for centuries through oral tradition or as religious texts.

Etymology

The English noun "prophecy", in the sense of "function of a prophet" appeared from about 1225, from Old French profecie (12th century), and from prophetia, Greek propheteia "gift of interpreting the will of God", from Greek prophetes (see prophet). The related meaning, "thing spoken or written by a prophet", dates from c. 1300, while the verb "to prophesy" is recorded by 1377.

Definitions

The revolution of 1831. As prophesied by that learned astrologer General Ikey Wether-Bridge
  • Maimonides suggested that "prophecy is, in truth and reality, an emanation sent forth by Divine Being through the medium of the Active Intellect, in the first instance to man's rational faculty, and then to his imaginative faculty".
  • The views of Maimonides closely relate to the definition by Al-Fârâbî, who developed the theory of prophecy in Islam.
  • Much of the activity of Old Testament prophets involved conditional warnings rather than immutable futures. A summary of a standard Old Testament prophetic formula might run: Repent of sin X and turn to righteousness, otherwise consequence Y will occur.
  • Saint Paul emphasizes edification, exhortation and comfort in a definition of prophesying.
  • The Catholic Encyclopedia defines a Christian conception of prophecy as "understood in its strict sense, it means the foreknowledge of future events, though it may sometimes apply to past events of which there is no memory, and to present hidden things which cannot be known by the natural light of reason".
  • According to Western esotericist Rosemary Guiley, clairvoyance has been used as an adjunct to "divination, prophecy, and magic".
  • From a skeptical point of view, a Latin maxim exists: "prophecy written after the fact" (vaticinium ex eventu). The Jewish Torah already deals with the topic of the false prophet (Deuteronomy 13:2-6, 18:20-22).

In religion

Baháʼí Faith

In 1863, Bahá'u'lláh, the founder of the Baháʼí Faith, claimed to have been the promised messianic figure of all previous religions, and a Manifestation of God, a type of prophet in the Baháʼí writings that serves as intermediary between the divine and humanity and who speaks with the voice of a god. Bahá'u'lláh claimed that, while being imprisoned in the Siyah-Chal in Iran, he underwent a series of mystical experiences including having a vision of the Maid of Heaven who told him of his divine mission, and the promise of divine assistance; In Baháʼí belief, the Maid of Heaven is a representation of the divine.

Buddhism

The Haedong Kosung-jon (Biographies of High Monks) records that King Beopheung of Silla had desired to promulgate Buddhism as the state religion. However, officials in his court opposed him. In the fourteenth year of his reign, Beopheung's "Grand Secretary", Ichadon, devised a strategy to overcome court opposition. Ichadon schemed with the king, convincing him to make a proclamation granting Buddhism official state sanction using the royal seal. Ichadon told the king to deny having made such a proclamation when the opposing officials received it and demanded an explanation. Instead, Ichadon would confess and accept the punishment of execution, for what would quickly be seen as a forgery. Ichadon prophesied to the king that at his execution a wonderful miracle would convince the opposing court faction of Buddhism's power. Ichadon's scheme went as planned, and the opposing officials took the bait. When Ichadon was executed on the 15th day of the 9th month in 527, his prophecy was fulfilled; the earth shook, the sun was darkened, beautiful flowers rained from the sky, his severed head flew to the sacred Geumgang mountains, and milk instead of blood sprayed 100 feet in the air from his beheaded corpse. The omen was accepted by the opposing court officials as a manifestation of heaven's approval, and Buddhism was made the state religion in 527.

Christianity

According to Walter Brueggemann, the task of prophetic (Christian) ministry is to nurture, nourish and evoke a consciousness and perception alternative to the consciousness and perception of the dominant culture. A recognized form of Christian prophecy is the "prophetic drama" which Frederick Dillistone describes as a "metaphorical conjunction between present situations and future events".

Later Christianity

In his Dialogue with Trypho, Justin Martyr argued that prophets were no longer among Israel but were in the Church. The Shepherd of Hermas, written around the mid-2nd century, describes the way prophecy was being used within the church of that time. Irenaeus confirms the existence of such spiritual gifts in his Against Heresies. Although some modern commentators claim that Montanus was rejected because he claimed to be a prophet, a careful examination of history shows that the gift of prophecy was still acknowledged during the time of Montanus, and that he was controversial because of the manner in which he prophesied and the doctrines he propagated.

Prophecy and other spiritual gifts were somewhat rarely acknowledged throughout church history and there are few examples of the prophetic and certain other gifts until the Scottish Covenanters like Prophet Peden and George Wishart. From 1904 to 1906, the Azusa Street Revival occurred in Los Angeles, California and is sometimes considered the birthplace of Pentecostalism. This revival is well known for the "speaking in tongues" that occurred there. Some participants of the Azusa Street Revival are claimed to have prophesied. Pentecostals believe prophecy and certain other gifts are once again being given to Christians. The Charismatic Movement also accepts spiritual gifts like speaking in tongues and prophecy.

Since 1972, the neo-Pentecostal Church of God Ministry of Jesus Christ International has expressed a belief in prophecy. The church claims this gift is manifested by one person (the prophesier) laying their hands on another person, who receives an individual message said by the prophesier. Prophesiers are believed to be used by the Holy Ghost as instruments through whom their God expresses his promises, advice and commandments. The church claims people receive messages about their future, in the form of promises given by their God and expected to be fulfilled by divine action.

Apostolic-Prophetic Movement

In the Apostolic-Prophetic Movement, a prophesy is simply a word delivered under the inspiration of the Holy Spirit that accurately communicates God's "thoughts and intention".

The Apostolic Council of Prophetic Elders was a council of prophetic elders co-convened by C. Peter Wagner and Cindy Jacobs that included: Beth Alves, Jim Gool, Chuck Pierce, Mike and Cindy Jacobs, Bart Pierces, John and Paula Sanford, Dutch Sheets, Tommy Tenny, Heckor Torres, Barbara Wentroble, Mike Bickle, Paul Cain, Emanuele Cannistraci, Bill Hamon, Kingsley Fletcher, Ernest Gentile, Jim Laffoon, James Ryle, and Gwen Shaw.

Latter Day Saint movement

The Latter Day Saint movement maintains that its first prophet, Joseph Smith, was visited by God and Jesus Christ in 1820. The Latter Day Saints further claims that God communicated directly with Joseph Smith on many subsequent occasions, and that following the death of Joseph Smith God has continued to speak through subsequent prophets. Joseph Smith claims to have been led by an angel to a large hill in upstate New York, where he was shown an ancient manuscript engraved on plates of gold metal. Joseph Smith claimed to have translated this manuscript into modern English under divine inspiration by the gift and power of God, and the publication of this translation are known as the Book of Mormon.

Following Smith's murder, there was a succession crisis that resulted in a great schism. The majority of Latter-day Saints believing Brigham Young to be the next prophet and following him out to Utah, while a minority returned to Missouri with Emma Smith, believing Joseph Smith Junior's son, Joseph Smith III, to be the next legitimate prophet (forming the Reorganized Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, now the Community of Christ). Since even before the death of Joseph Smith in 1844, there have been numerous separatist Latter Day Saint sects that have splintered from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. To this day, there are an unknown number of organizations within the Latter Day Saint movement, each with their own proposed prophet.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) is the largest Latter Day Saint body. The current Prophet/President of the LDS Church is Russell M. Nelson. The church has, since Joseph Smith's death on June 27, 1844, held a belief that the president of their church is also a literal prophet of God. The church also maintains that further revelations claimed to have been given through Joseph Smith are published in the Doctrine and Covenants, one of the Standard Works. Additional revelations and prophecies outside the Standard Works, such as Joseph Smith's "White Horse Prophecy", concerning a great and final war in the United States before the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, can be found in other church published works.

Islam

The Arabic term for prophecy nubū'ah (Arabic: نُبُوْءَة) stems from the term for prophets, nabī (Arabic: نَبِي; pl. anbiyāʼ from nabā "tidings, announcement") who are lawbringers that Muslims believe were sent by God to every person, bringing God's message in a language they can understand. But there is also the term rasūl (Arabic: رسول "messenger, apostle") to classify those who bring a divine revelation (Arabic: رسالة risālah "message") via an angel. Knowledge of the Islamic prophets is one of the six articles of the Islamic faith, and specifically mentioned in the Quran. Along with Muhammad, many of the prophets in Judaism (such as Noah, Abraham, Moses, Aaron, Elijah, etc.) and prophets of Christianity (Adam, Zechariah the priest, John the Baptist, Jesus Christ) are mentioned by name in the Quran.

In the sense of predicting events, the Quran contains verses believed to have predicted many events years before they happened and that such prophecies are proof of the divine origin of the Qur'an. The Qur'an itself states "For every announcement there is a term, and ye will come to know." [Quran 6:67] Muslims also recognize the validity of some prophecies in other sacred texts like in the Bible; however, they believe that, unlike the Qur'an, some parts of the Bible have been corrupted over the years, and as a result, not all of the prophecies and verses in the Bible are accurate.

Judaism

David and Saul, detail from an 1878 oil painting, Nationalmuseum, Stockholm

The Hebrew term for prophet, Navi (נבוא), literally means "spokesperson"; he speaks to the people as a mouthpiece of their God, and to their god on behalf of the people. "The name prophet, from the Greek meaning "forespeaker" (πρὸ being used in the original local sense), is an equivalent of the Hebrew Navi, which signifies properly a delegate or mouthpiece of another."

According to Judaism, authentic Nevuah (נבואה, "Prophecy") got withdrawn from the world after the destruction of the first Jerusalem Temple. Malachi is acknowledged to have been the last authentic prophet if one accepts the opinion that Nechemyah died in Babylon before 9th Tevet 3448 (313 BCE).

The Torah contains laws concerning the false prophet (Deuteronomy 13:2-6, 18:20-22). Prophets in Islam like Lot, for example, are false prophets according to Jewish standards.

In the Torah, prophecy often consisted of a conditioned warning by their God of the consequences should the society, specific communities, or their leaders not adhere to Torah's instructions in the time contemporary with the prophet's life. Prophecies sometimes included conditioned promises of blessing for obeying their god, and returning to behaviors and laws as written in the Torah. Conditioned warning prophecies feature in all Jewish works of the Tanakh.

Notably Maimonides, philosophically suggested there once were many levels of prophecy, from the highest such as those experienced by Moses, to the lowest where the individuals were able to apprehend the Divine Will, but not respond or even describe this experience to others, citing in example, Shem, Eber and most notably, Noah, who, in biblical narrative, does not issue prophetic declarations.

Maimonides, in his philosophical work The Guide for the Perplexed, outlines twelve modes of prophecy from lesser to greater degree of clarity:

  1. Inspired actions
  2. Inspired words
  3. Allegorical dream revelations
  4. Auditory dream revelations
  5. Audiovisual dream revelations/human speaker
  6. Audiovisual dream revelations/angelic speaker
  7. Audiovisual dream revelations/Divine speaker
  8. Allegorical waking vision
  9. Auditory waking revelation
  10. Audiovisual waking revelation/human speaker
  11. Audiovisual waking revelation/angelic speaker
  12. Audiovisual waking revelation/Divine speaker (that refers implicitly to Moses)

The Tanakh contains prophecies from various Hebrew prophets (55 in total) who communicated messages from God to the nation of Israel, and later the population of Judea and elsewhere. Experience of prophecy in the Torah and the rest of Tanakh was not restricted to Jews. Nor was the prophetic experience restricted to the Hebrew language.

Native American prophecy

There exists a problem in verifying most Native American prophecy, in that they remain primarily an oral tradition, and thus there is no way to cite references of where writings have been committed to paper. In their system, the best reference is an Elder, who acts as a repository of the accumulated wisdom of their tradition.

In another type of example, it is recorded that there are three Dogrib prophets who had claimed to have been divinely inspired to bring the message of Christianity's God to their people. This prophecy among the Dogrib involves elements such as dances and trance-like states.

China

In ancient Chinese, prophetic texts are known as Chen (谶). The most famous Chinese prophecy is the Tui bei tu (推背圖).

Nostradamus

Esoteric prophecy has been claimed for, but not by, Michel de Nostredame, popularly referred to as Nostradamus, who claimed to be a converted Christian. It is known that he suffered several tragedies in his life, and was persecuted to some degree for his cryptic esoteric writings about the future, reportedly derived through a use of a crystal ball. Nostradamus was a French apothecary and reputed seer who published collections of foreknowledge of future events. He is best known for his book Les Propheties ("The Prophecies"), the first edition of which appeared in 1555. Since Les Propheties was published, Nostradamus has attracted an esoteric following that, along with the popularistic press, credits him with foreseeing world events. His esoteric cryptic foreseeings have in some cases been assimilated to the results of applying the alleged Bible code, as well as to other purported pseudo-prophetic works.

Most reliable academic sources maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus's quatrains are largely the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate) or else are so tenuous as to render them useless as evidence of any genuine predictive power. Moreover, none of the sources listed offers any evidence that anyone has ever interpreted any of Nostradamus's pseudo-prophetic works specifically enough to allow a clear identification of any event in advance.

Explanations

According to skeptics, many apparently fulfilled prophecies can be explained as coincidences, possibly aided by the prophecy's own vagueness, and others may have been invented after the fact to match the circumstances of a past event (an act termed "postdiction").

Bill Whitcomb in The Magician's Companion observes,

One point to remember is that the probability of an event changes as soon as a prophecy (or divination) exists. . . . The accuracy or outcome of any prophecy is altered by the desires and attachments of the seer and those who hear the prophecy.

Many prophets make a large number of prophecies. This makes the chances of at least one prophecy being correct much higher by sheer weight of numbers.

Psychology

The phenomenon of prophecy is not well understood in psychology research literature. Psychiatrist and neurologist Arthur Deikman describes the phenomenon as an "intuitive knowing, a type of perception that bypasses the usual sensory channels and rational intellect."

"(P)rophecy can be likened to a bridge between the individual 'mystical self' and the communal 'mystical body'," writes religious sociologist Margaret Poloma. Prophecy seems to involve "the free association that occurred through the workings of the right brain."

Psychologist Julian Jaynes proposed that this is a temporary accessing of the bicameral mind; that is, a temporary separating of functions, such that the authoritarian part of the mind seems to literally be speaking to the person as if a separate (and external) voice. Jaynes posits that the gods heard as voices in the head were and are organizations of the central nervous system. God speaking through man, according to Jaynes, is a more recent vestige of God speaking to man; the product of a more integrated higher self. When the bicameral mind speaks, there is no introspection. In earlier times, posits Jaynes, there was additionally a visual component, now lost.

Child development and consciousness author Joseph Chilton Pearce remarked that revelation typically appears in symbolic form and "in a single flash of insight." He used the metaphor of lightning striking and suggests that the revelation is "a result of a buildup of resonant potential." Pearce compared it to the earth asking a question and the sky answering it. Focus, he said, feeds into "a unified field of like resonance (and becomes) capable of attracting and receiving the field's answer when it does form."

Some cite aspects of cognitive psychology such as pattern forming and attention to the formation of prophecy in modern-day society as well as the declining influence of religion in daily life.

Poetry and prophecy

For the ancient Greeks, prediction, prophesy, and poetry were often intertwined. Prophecies were given in verse, and a word for poet in Latin is “vates” or prophet. Both poets and oracles claimed to be inspired by forces outside themselves. In ancient China, divination is regarded as the oldest form of occult inquiry and was often expressed in verse. In contemporary Western cultures, theological revelation and poetry are typically seen as distinct and often even as opposed to each other. Yet the two still are often understood together as symbiotic in their origins, aims, and purposes.

Middle English poems of a political nature are linked with Latin and vernacular prophecies. Prophecies in this sense are predictions concerning kingdoms or peoples; and these predictions are often eschatological or apocalyptic. The prophetic tradition in English derives in from Geoffrey of Monmouth's History of the Kings of Britain (1136), otherwise called "Prophecies of Merlin;" this work is prelude to numerous books devoted to King Arthur. In 18th century England, prophecy as poetry is revived by William Blake who wrote: America: A Prophecy (1783) and Europe: A Prophecy (1794).

Contemporary American poetry is also rich in lyrics about prophesy, including poems entitled Prophecy by Dana Gioia and Eileen Myles. In 1962, Robert Frost published "The Prophets Really Prophesy as Mystics the Commentators Merely by Statistics". Other modern poets who write on prophets or prophecy include Carl Dennis, Richard Wilbur, and Derek Walcott.

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