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Monday, March 23, 2020

Economy of Denmark

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Economy of Denmark
Kopenhamn Danmark, Johannes Jansson.jpg
CurrencyDanish krone (DKK, kr)
calendar year
Trade organisations
EU, WTO, OECD and others
Country group
Statistics
PopulationIncrease 5,806,081 (1 January 2019)
GDP
  • Decrease $347.176 billion (nominal, 2019 est.)
  • Increase $312.842 billion (PPP, 2019 est.)
GDP rank
GDP growth
  • 2.3% (2017) 1.5% (2018)
  • 1.7% (2019e) 1.9% (2020e)
GDP per capita
  • Decrease $59,795 (nominal, 2019 est.)
  • Increase $53,882 (PPP, 2019 est.)
GDP per capita rank
GDP by sector
  • agriculture: 1.6%
  • mining and quarrying: 1.2%
  • industry: 14.4%
  • utilities and construction: 7.7%
  • services: 75.2% (2017)
  • 1.5% (2020 est.)
  • 1.3% (2019 est.)
  • 0.7% (2018)
Population below poverty line
  • Negative increase 5.8% in poverty (2016)
  • Positive decrease 16.5% at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2019)
Positive decrease 27.5 low (2019)
  • Increase 0.930 very high (2018)
  • 0.873 very high IHDI (2018)
Labour force
  • Increase 3,009,405 (2019)
  • Increase 77.5% employment rate (Target: 80%; 2018)
Labour force by occupation
  • agriculture: 2.4%
  • mining and quarrying: 0.1%
  • industry: 10.7%
  • utilities and construction: 6.7%
  • services: 79.9% (2017)
Unemployment
  • Steady 4.9% (January, 2020)
  • Positive decrease 10.1% youth unemployment (2018)
Average gross salary
DKK 38,596 / €5,179 / $5,819 monthly (2017)
DKK 24,315 / €3,263 / $3,666 monthly (2017)
Main industries
wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, shipbuilding and refurbishment, iron, steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, food processing, machinery and transportation equipment, textiles and clothing, electronics, construction, furniture and other wood products
Decrease 4th (very easy, 2020)
External
ExportsIncrease $113.6 billion (2017 est.)
Export goods
wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, machinery and instruments, meat and meat products, dairy products, fish, furniture and design
Main export partners
ImportsIncrease $94.93 billion (2017 est.)
Import goods
machinery and equipment, raw materials and semimanufactures for industry, chemicals, grain and foodstuffs, consumer goods
Main import partners
FDI stock
  • Increase $188.7 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
  • Increase Abroad: $287.9 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
Increase $24.82 billion (2017 est.)
Positive decrease $484.8 billion (31 March 2016 est.)
64.6% of GDP (1 July 2018)
Public finances
  • Positive decrease 34.2% of GDP (2018)
  • Positive decrease DKK 759.286 billion (2018)
  • Decrease +0.8% of GDP (2018)
  • Decrease +DKK 17.533 billion (2018)
Revenues52.0% of GDP (2018)
Expenses51.5% of GDP (2018)
Economic aidODA, 0.72% of GNI (2017)
  • Standard & Poor's:
  • AAA (Domestic)
  • AAA (Foreign)
  • AAA (T&C Assessment)
  • Scope:
  • AAA
  • Outlook: Stable
Foreign reserves
Increase $75.25 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
Main data source: CIA World Fact Book
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

The economy of Denmark is a modern market economy with comfortable living standards, a high level of government services and transfers, and a high dependence on foreign trade. The economy is dominated by the service sector with 80% of all jobs, whereas about 11% of all employees work in manufacturing and 2% in agriculture. Nominal gross national income per capita was the tenth-highest in the world at $55,220 in 2017. Correcting for purchasing power, per capita income was Int$52,390 or 16th-highest globally. Income distribution is relatively equal, but inequality has increased somewhat during the last decades, however, due to both a larger spread in gross incomes and various economic policy measures. In 2017, Denmark had the seventh-lowest Gini coefficient (a measure of economic inequality) of the 28 European Union countries. With 5,789,957 inhabitants (1 July 2018), Denmark has the 39th largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and 60th largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity (PPP).

As a small open economy, Denmark generally advocates a liberal trade policy, and its exports as well as imports make up circa 50% of GDP. Since 1990 Denmark has consistently had a current account surplus, with the sole exception of 1998. As a consequence, the country has become a considerable creditor nation, having acquired a net international investment position amounting to 65% of GDP in 2018. A decisive reason for this are the widespread compulsory funded labour market pensions schemes which have caused a considerable increase in private savings rates and today play an important role for the economy.

Denmark has a very long tradition of adhering to a fixed exchange-rate system and still does so today. It is unique among OECD countries to do so while maintaining an independent currency: The Danish krone, which is pegged to the euro. Though eligible to join the EMU, the Danish voters in a referendum in 2000 rejected exchanging the krone for the euro. Whereas Denmark's neighbours like Norway, Sweden, Poland and United Kingdom generally follow inflation targeting in their monetary policy, the priority of Denmark's central bank is to maintain exchange rate stability. Consequently, the central bank has no role in domestic stabilization policy. Since February 2015, the central bank has maintained a negative interest rate in order to contain an upward exchange rate pressure.

In an international context a relatively large proportion of the population is part of the labour force, in particular because the female participation rate is very high. In 2017 78.8% of all 15-64-year-old people were active on the labour market, the sixth-highest number among all OECD countries. Unemployment is relatively low among European countries; in October 2018 4.8% of the Danish labour force were unemployed as compared to an average of 6.7% for all EU countries. There is no legal minimum wage in Denmark. The labour market is traditionally characterized by a high degree of union membership rates and collective agreement coverage. Denmark invests heavily in active labor market policies and the concept of flexicurity has been important historically.

Denmark is an example of the Nordic model, characterized by an internationally high tax level, and a correspondingly high level of government-provided services (e.g. health care, child care and education services) and income transfers to various groups like retired or disabled people, unemployed persons, students, etc. Altogether, the amount of revenue from taxes paid in 2017 amounted to 46.1% of GDP. Danish fiscal policy is generally considered healthy. Net government debt is very close to zero, amounting to 1.3% of GDP in 2017. Danish fiscal policy is characterized by a long-term outlook, taking into account likely future fiscal demands. During the 2000s a challenge was perceived to government expenditures in future decades and hence ultimately fiscal sustainability from demographic development, in particular higher longevity. Responding to this, age eligibility rules for receiving public age-related transfers were changed. From 2012 calculations of future fiscal challenges from the government as well as independent analysts have generally perceived Danish fiscal policy to be sustainable - indeed in recent years overly sustainable.

History

Denmark's long-term economic development has largely followed the same pattern as other Northwestern European countries. In most of recorded history Denmark has been an agricultural country with most of the population living on a subsistence level. Since the 19th century Denmark has gone through an intense technological and institutional development. The material standard of living has experienced formerly unknown rates of growth, and the country has been industrialized and later turned into a modern service society.

Almost all of the land area of Denmark is arable. Unlike most of its neighbours, Denmark has not had extractable deposits of minerals or fossil fuels, except for the deposits of oil and natural gas in the North Sea, which started playing an economic role only during the 1980s. On the other hand, Denmark has had a logistic advantage through its long coastal line and the fact that no point on Danish land is more than 50 kilometers from the sea - an important fact for the whole period before the industrial revolution when sea transport was cheaper than land transport. Consequently, foreign trade has always been very important for the economic development of Denmark.

Danish silver penning from the time of Valdemar I of Denmark.

Already during the Stone Age there was some foreign trade, and even though trade has made up only a very modest share of total Danish value added until the 19th century, it has been decisive for economic development, both in terms of procuring vital import goods (like metals) and because new knowledge and technological skills have often come to Denmark as a byproduct of goods exchange with other countries. The emerging trade implied specialization which created demand for means of payments, and the earliest known Danish coins date from the time of Svend Tveskæg around 995.

Count Otto Thott was the foremost representative of Mercantilist thought in Denmark.

According to economic historian Angus Maddison, Denmark was the sixth-most prosperous country in the world around 1600. The population size relative to arable agricultural land was small so that the farmers were relatively affluent, and Denmark was geographically close to the most dynamic and economically leading European areas since the 16th century: the Netherlands, the northern parts of Germany, and Britain. Still, 80 to 85% of the population lived in small villages on a subsistence level.

Mercantilism was the leading economic doctrine during the 17th and 18th century in Denmark, leading to the establishment of monopolies like Asiatisk Kompagni, development of physical and financial infrastructure like the first Danish bank Kurantbanken in 1736 and the first "kreditforening" (a kind of building society) in 1797, and the acquisition of some minor Danish colonies like Tranquebar.

At the end of the 18th century major agricultural reforms took place that entailed decisive structural changes. Politically, mercantilism was gradually replaced by liberal thoughts among the ruling elite. Following a monetary reform after the Napoleonic wars, the present Danish central bank Danmarks Nationalbank was founded in 1818.

There exist national accounting data for Denmark from 1820 onwards thanks to the pioneering work of Danish economic historian Svend Aage Hansen. They find that there has been a substantial and permanent, though fluctuating, economic growth all the time since 1820. The period 1822-94 saw on average an annual growth in factor incomes of 2% (0.9% per capita) From around 1830 the agricultural sector experienced a major boom lasting several decades, producing and exporting grains, not least to Britain after 1846 when British grain import duties were abolished. When grain production became less profitable in the second half of the century, the Danish farmers made an impressive and uniquely successful change from vegetarian to animal production leading to a new boom period. Parallelly industrialization took off in Denmark from the 1870s. At the turn of the century industry (including artisanry) fed almost 30% of the population.

During the 20th century agriculture slowly dwindled in importance relative to industry, but agricultural employment was only during the 1950s surpassed by industrial employment. The first half of the century was marked by the two world wars and the Great Depression during the 1930s. After World War II Denmark took part in the increasingly close international cooperation, joining OEEC/OECD, IMF, GATT/WTO, and from 1972 the European Economic Community, later European Union. Foreign trade increased heavily relative to GDP. The economic role of the public sector increased considerably, and the country was increasingly transformed from an industrial country to a country dominated by production of services. The years 1958-73 were an unprecedented high-growth period. The 1960s are the decade with the highest registered real per capita growth in GDP ever, i.e. 4.5% annually.

As a chairman of the Danish Economic Council and of several policy-preparing commissions, Professor Torben M. Andersen has played an important role in Danish economic policy debates for the last decades.

During the 1970s Denmark was plunged into a crisis, initiated by the 1973 oil crisis leading to the hitherto unknown phenomenon stagflation. For the next decades the Danish economy struggled with several major so-called "balance problems": High unemployment, current account deficits, inflation, and government debt. From the 1980s economic policies have increasingly been oriented towards a long-term perspective, and gradually a series of structural reforms have solved these problems. In 1994 active labour market policies were introduced that via a series of labour market reforms have helped reducing structural unemployment considerably. A series of tax reforms from 1987 onwards, reducing tax deductions on interest payments, and the increasing importance of compulsory labour market-based funded pensions from the 1990s have increased private savings rates considerably, consequently transforming secular current account deficits to secular surpluses. The announcement of a consistent and hence more credible fixed exchange rate in 1982 has helped reducing the inflation rate. 

In the first decade of the 21st century new economic policy issues have emerged. A growing awareness that future demographic changes, in particular increasing longevity, could threaten fiscal sustainability, implying very large fiscal deficits in future decades, led to major political agreements in 2006 and 2011, both increasing the future eligibility age of receiving public age-related pensions. Mainly because of these changes, from 2012 onwards the Danish fiscal sustainability problem is generally considered to be solved. Instead, issues like decreasing productivity growth rates and increasing inequality in income distribution and consumption possibilities are prevalent in the public debate.

The global Great Recession during the late 2000s, the accompanying Euro area debt crisis and their repercussions marked the Danish economy for several years. Until 2017, unemployment rates have generally been considered to be above their structural level, implying a relatively stagnating economy from a business-cycle point of view. From 2017/18 this is no longer considered to be the case, and attention has been redirected to the need of avoiding a potential overheating situation.

Income, wealth and income distribution

Average per capita income is high in an international context. According to the World Bank, gross national income per capita was the tenth-highest in the world at $55,220 in 2017. Correcting for purchasing power, income was Int$52,390 or 16th-highest among the 187 countries.

During the last three decades household saving rates in Denmark have increased considerably. This is to a large extent caused by two major institutional changes: A series of tax reforms from 1987 to 2009 considerably reduced the effective subsidization of private debt implicit in the rules for tax deductions of household interest payments. Secondly, compulsory funded pension schemes became normal for most employees from the 1990s. Over the years, the wealth of the Danish pension funds have accumulated so that in 2016 it constituted twice the size of Denmark's GDP. The pension wealth consequently is a very important both for the life-cycle of a typical individual Danish household and for the national economy. A large part of the pension wealth is invested abroad, thus giving rise to a fair amount of foreign capital income. In 2015, average household assets were more than 600% of their disposable income, among OECD countries second only to the Netherlands. At the same time, average household gross debt was almost 300% of disposable income, which is also at the highest level in OECD. Household balance sheets are consequently very large in Denmark compared to most other countries. Danmarks Nationalbank, the Danish central bank, has attributed this to a well-developed financial system.

Income inequality

Income inequality has traditionally been low in Denmark. According to OECD figures, in 2000 Denmark had the lowest Gini coefficient of all countries. However, inequality has increased during the last decades. According to data from Statistics Denmark, the Gini coefficient for disposable income has increased from 22.1 in 1987 to 29.3 in 2017. The Danish Economic Council found in an analysis from 2016 that the increasing inequality in Denmark is due to several components: Pre-tax labour income is more unequally distributed today than before, capital income, which is generally less equally distributed than labour income, has increased as share of total income, and economic policy is less redistributive today, both because public income transfers play a smaller role today and because the tax system has become less progressive.

In international comparisons, Denmark has a relatively equal income distribution. According to the CIA World Factbook, Denmark had the twentieth-lowest Gini coefficient (29.0) of 158 countries in 2016. According to data from Eurostat, Denmark was the EU country with the seventh-lowest Gini coefficient in 2017. Slovakia, Slovenia, Czechia, Finland, Belgium and the Netherlands had a lower Gini coefficient for disposable income than Denmark.

Labour market and employment

The Danish labour market is characterized by a high degree of union membership rates and collective agreement coverage dating back from Septemberforliget (The September Settlement) in 1899 when the Danish Confederation of Trade Unions and the Confederation of Danish Employers recognized each other's right to organise and negotiate. The labour market is also traditionally characterized by a high degree of flexicurity, i.e. a combination of labour market flexibility and economic security for workers. The degree of flexibility is in part maintained through active labour market policies. Denmark first introduced active labour market policies (ALMPs) in the 1990s after an economic recession that resulted in high unemployment rates. Its labour market policies are decided through tripartite cooperation between employers, employees and the government. Denmark has one of the highest expenditures on ALMPs and in 2005, spent about 1.7% of its GDP on labour market policies. This was the highest amongst the OECD countries. Similarly, in 2010 Denmark was ranked number one amongst Nordic countries for expenditure on ALMPs.

Denmark's active labour market policies particularly focus on tackling youth unemployment. They have had a "youth initiative" or the Danish Youth Unemployment Programme in place since 1996. This includes mandatory activation for those unemployed under the age of 30. While unemployment benefits are provided, the policies are designed to motivate job-seeking. For example, unemployment benefits decrease by 50% after 6 months. This is combined with education, skill development and work training programs. For instance, the Building Bridge to Education program was started in 2014 to provide mentors and skill development classes to youth that are at risk of unemployment. Such active labour market policies have been successful for Denmark in the short-term and the long-term. For example, 80% of participants in the Building Bridge for Education program felt that "the initiative has helped them to move towards completing an education". On a more macro scale, a study of the impact of ALMPs in Denmark between 1995 and 2005 showed that such policies had positive impact not just on employment but also on earnings. The effective compensation rate for unemployed workers has been declining for the last decades, however. Unlike in most Western countries there is no legal minimum wage in Denmark.

A relatively large proportion of the population is active on the labour market, not least because of a very high female participation rate. The total participation rate for people aged 15 to 64 years was 78.8% in 2017. This was the 6th-highest number among OECD countries, only surpassed by Iceland, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand and the Netherlands. The average for all OECD countries together was 72.1%.

According to Eurostat, the unemployment rate was 5.7% in 2017. This places unemployment in Denmark somewhat below the EU average, which was 7.6%. 10 EU member countries had a lower unemployment rate than Denmark in 2017.

Altogether, total employment in 2017 amounted to 2,919,000 people according to Statistics Denmark.

The share of employees leaving jobs every year (for a new job, retirement or unemployment) in the private sector is around 30% - a level also observed in the U.K. and U.S.- but much higher than in continental Europe, where the corresponding figure is around 10%, and in Sweden. This attrition can be very costly, with new and old employees requiring half a year to return to old productivity levels, but with attrition bringing the number of people that have to be fired down.

Foreign trade

As a small open economy, Denmark is very dependent on its foreign trade. In 2017, the value of total exports of goods and services made up 55% of GDP, whereas the value of total imports amounted to 47% of GDP. Trade in goods made up slightly more than 60% of both exports and imports, and trade in services the remaining close to 40%.

Machinery, chemicals and related products like medicine and agricultural products were the largest groups of export goods in 2017. Service exports were dominated by freight sea transport services from the Danish merchant navy. Most of Denmark's most important trading partners are neighbouring countries. The five main importers of Danish goods and services in 2017 were Germany, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States and Norway. The five countries from which Denmark imported most goods and services in 2017 were Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, China and United Kingdom.

After having almost consistently an external balance of payments current account deficit since the beginning of the 1960s, Denmark has maintained a surplus on its BOP current account for every year since 1990, with the single exception of 1998. In 2017, the current account surplus amounted to approximately 8% of GDP. Consequently, Denmark has changed from a net debtor to a net creditor country. By 1 July 2018, the net foreign wealth or net international investment position of Denmark was equal to 64.6% of GDP, Denmark thus having the largest net foreign wealth relative to GDP of any EU country.

As the annual current account is equal to the value of domestic saving minus total domestic investment, the change from a structural deficit to a structural surplus is due to changes in these two national account components. In particular, the Danish national saving rate in financial assets increased by 11 per cent of GDP from 1980 to 2015. Two main reasons for this large change in domestic saving behaviour were the growing importance of large-scale compulsory pension schemes and several Danish fiscal policy reforms during the period which considerably decreased tax deductions of household interest expense, thus reducing the tax subsidy to private debt.

Currency and monetary policy

The building of Danmarks Nationalbank, the central bank of Denmark, built by the Danish architect Arne Jacobsen.

The Danish currency is the Danish krone, subdivided into 100 øre. The krone and øre were introduced in 1875, replacing the former rigsdaler and skilling. Denmark has a very long tradition of maintaining a fixed exchange-rate system, dating back to the period of the gold standard during the time of the Scandinavian Monetary Union from 1873 to 1914. After the breakdown of the international Bretton Woods system in 1971, Denmark devalued the krone repeatedly during the 1970s and the start of the 1980s, effectively maintaining a policy of "fixed, but adjustable" exchange rates. Rising inflation led to Denmark declaring a more consistent fixed exchange-rate policy in 1982. At first, the krone was pegged to the European Currency Unit or ECU, from 1987 to the Deutschmark, and from 1999 to the euro.

Although eligible, Denmark chose not to join the European Monetary Union when it was founded. In 2000, the Danish government advocated Danish EMU membership and called a referendum to settle the issue. With a turn-out of 87.6%, 53% of the voters rejected Danish membership. Occasionally, the question of calling another referendum on the issue has been discussed, but since the Financial crisis of 2007–2008 opinion polls have shown a clear majority against Denmark joining the EMU, and the question is not high on the political agenda presently. 

Maintenance of the fixed exchange rate is the responsibility of Danmarks Nationalbank, the Danish central bank. As a consequence of the exchange rate policy, the bank must always adjust its interest rates in order to ensure a stable exchange rate and consequently cannot at the same time conduct monetary policy in order to stabilize e.g. domestic inflation or unemployment rates. This makes the conduct of stabilization policy fundamentally different from the situation in Denmark's neighbouring countries like Norway, Sweden, Poland og United Kingdom, in which the central banks have a central stabilizing role. Denmark is presently the only OECD member country maintaining an independent currency with a fixed exchange rate. Consequently, the Danish krone is the only currency in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II).

In the first months of 2015, Denmark experienced the largest pressure against the fixed exchange rate for many years because of very large capital inflows, causing a tendency for the Danish krone to appreciate. Danmarks Nationalbank reacted in various ways, chiefly by lowering its interest rates to record low levels. On 6 February 2015 the certificates of deposit rate, one of the four official Danish central bank rates, was lowered to -0.75%. In January 2016 the rate was raised to -0.65%, at which level it has been maintained since then.

Inflation in Denmark as measured by the official consumer price index of Statistics Denmark was 1.1% in 2017. Inflation has generally been low and stable for the last decades. Whereas in 1980 annual inflation was more than 12%, in the period 2000-2017 the average inflation rate was 1.8%.

Government

Overall organization

Since a local-government reform in 2007, the general government organization in Denmark is carried out on three administrative levels: central government, regions, and municipalities. Regions administer mainly health care services, whereas municipalities administer primary education and social services. Municipalities in principle independently levy income and property taxes, but the scope for total municipal taxation and expenditure is closely regulated by annual negotiations between the municipalities and the Finance Minister of Denmark. At the central government level, the Ministry of Finance carries out the coordinating role of conducting economic policy. In 2012, the Danish parliament passed a Budget Law (effective from January 2014) which governs the over-all fiscal framework, stating among other things that the structural deficit must never exceed 0.5% of GDP, and that Danish fiscal policy is required to be sustainable, i.e. have a non-negative fiscal sustainability indicator. The Budget Law also assigned the role of independent fiscal institution (IFI, informally known as "fiscal watchdog") to the already-existing independent advisory body of the Danish Economic Councils.

Budget and fiscal position

Danish fiscal policy is generally considered healthy. Government net debt was close to zero at the end of 2017, amounting to DKK 27.3 billion, or 1.3% of GDP. The government sector having a fair amount of financial assets as well as liabilities, government gross debt amounted to 36.1% of GDP at the same date. The gross EMU-debt as percentage of GDP was the sixth-lowest among all 28 EU member countries, only Estonia, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania having a lower gross debt. Denmark had a government budget surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2017.

Long-run annual fiscal projections from the Danish government as well as the independent Danish Economic Council, taking into account likely future fiscal developments caused by demographic developments etc. (e.g. a likely ageing of the population caused by a considerable expansion of life expectancy), consider the Danish fiscal policy to be overly sustainable in the long run. In Spring 2018, the so-called Fiscal Sustainability Indicator was calculated to be 1.2 (by the Danish government) respectively 0.9% (by the Danish Economic Council) of GDP. This implies that under the assumptions employed in the projections, fiscal policy could be permanently loosened (via more generous public expenditures and/or lower taxes) by ca. 1% of GDP while still maintaining a stable government debt-to-GDP ratio in the long run.

Taxation

The tax level as well as the government expenditure level in Denmark ranks among the highest in the world, which is traditionally ascribed to the Nordic model of which Denmark is an example, including the welfare state principles which historically evolved during the 20th century. In 2017, the official Danish tax level amounted to 46.1% of GDP. The all-record highest Danish tax level was 49.8% of GDP, reached in 2014 because of high extraordinary one-time tax revenues caused by a reorganization of the Danish-funded pension system. The Danish tax-to-GDP-ratio of 46% was the second-highest among all OECD countries, second only to France. The OECD average was 34.2%. The tax structure of Denmark (the relative weight of different taxes) also differs from the OECD average, as the Danish tax system in 2015 was characterized by substantially higher revenues from taxes on personal income, whereas on the other hand, no revenues at all derive from social security contributions. A lower proportion of revenues in Denmark derive from taxes on corporate income and gains and property taxes than in OECD generally, whereas the proportion deriving from payroll taxes, VAT, and other taxes on goods and services correspond to the OECD average.

In 2016, the average marginal tax rate on labour income for all Danish tax-payers was 38.9%. The average marginal tax on personal capital income was 30.7%.

Professor of Economics at Princeton University Henrik Kleven has suggested that three distinct policies in Denmark and its Scandinavian neighbours imply that the high tax rates cause only relatively small distortions to the economy: widespread use of third-party information reporting for tax collection purposes (ensuring a low level of tax evasion), broad tax bases (ensuring a low level of tax avoidance), and a strong subsidization of goods that are complementary to working (ensuring a high level of labour force participation).

Government Expenditures

Parallel to the high tax level, government expenditures make up a large part of GDP, and the government sector carries out many different tasks. By September 2018, 831,000 people worked in the general government sector, corresponding to 29.9% of all employees. In 2017, total government expenditure amounted to 50.9% of GDP. Government consumption took up precisely 25% of GDP (e.g. education and health care expenditure), and government investment (infrastructure etc.) expenditure another 3.4% of GDP. Personal income transfers (for e.g. elderly or unemployed people) amounted to 16.8% of GDP.

Denmark has an unemployment insurance system called the A-kasse (arbejdsløshedskasse). This system requires a paying membership of a state-recognized unemployment fund. Most of these funds are managed by trade unions, and part of their expenses are financed through the tax system. Members of an A-kasse are not obliged to be members of a trade union. Not every Danish citizen or employee qualifies for a membership of an unemployment fund, and membership benefits will be terminated after 2 years of unemployment. A person that is not a member of an A-kasse cannot receive unemployment benefits. Unemployment funds do not pay benefits to sick members, who will be transferred to a municipal social support system instead. Denmark has a countrywide, but municipally administered social support system against poverty, securing that qualified citizens have a minimum living income. All Danish citizens above 18 years of age can apply for some financial support if they cannot support themselves or their family. Approval is not automatic, and the extent of this system has generally been diminished since the 1980s. Sick people can receive some financial support throughout the extent of their illness. Their ability to work will be re-evaluated by the municipality after 5 months of illness.

The welfare system related to the labor market has experienced several reforms and financial cuts since the late 1990s due to political agendas for increasing the labor supply. Several reforms of the rights of the unemployed have followed up, partially inspired by the Danish Economic Council. Halving the time unemployment benefits can be received from four to two years, and making it twice as hard to regain this right, was implemented in 2010 for example.

Disabled people can apply for permanent social pensions. The extent of the support depends on the ability to work, and people below 40 can not receive social pension unless they are deemed incapable of any kind of work.

Industries

Agriculture

Pasture grazing cattle (Rømø)

Agriculture was once the most important industry in Denmark. Nowadays, it is of minor economic importance. In 2016, 62,000 people, or 2.5% of all employed people worked in agriculture and horticulture. Another 2,000 people worked in fishing. As value added per person is relatively low, the share of national value added is somewhat lower. Total gross value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing amounted to 1.6% of total output in Denmark (in 2017). Despite this, Denmark is still home to various types of agricultural production. Within animal husbandry, it includes dairy and beef cattle, pigs, poultry and fur animals (primarily mink) - all sectors that produce mainly for export. Regarding vegetable production, Denmark is a leading producer of grass-, clover- and horticultural seeds. The agriculture and food sector as a whole represented 25% of total Danish commodity exports in 2015.

63% of the land area of Denmark is used for agricultural production - the highest share in the world according to a report from University of Copenhagen in 2017. The Danish agricultural industry is historically characterized by freehold and family ownership, but due to structural development farms have become fewer and larger. In 2017 the number of farms was approximately 35,000, of which approximately 10,000 were owned by full-time farmers.

Animal production

The tendency toward fewer and larger farms has been accompanied by an increase in animal production, using fewer resources per produced unit.

The number of dairy farmers has reduced to about 3,800 with an average herd size of 150 cows. The milk quota is 1,142 tonnes. Danish dairy farmers are among the largest and most modern producers in Europe. More than half of the cows live in new loose-housing systems. Export of dairy products accounts for more than 20 percent of the total Danish agricultural export. The total number of cattle in 2011 was approximately 1.5 million. Of these, 565,000 were dairy cows and 99,000 were suckler cows. The yearly number of slaughtering of beef cattle is around 550,000.

For more than 100 years the production of pigs and pig meat was a major source of income in Denmark. The Danish pig industry is among the world's leaders in areas such as breeding, quality, food safety, animal welfare and traceability creating the basis for Denmark being among the world's largest pig meat exporters. Approximately 90 percent of the production is exported. This accounts for almost half of all agricultural exports and for more than 5 percent of Denmark's total exports. About 4,200 farmers produce 28 million pigs annually. Of these, 20.9 million are slaughtered in Denmark.

Fur animal production on an industrial scale started in the 1930s in Denmark. Denmark is now the world's largest producer of mink furs, with 1,400 mink farmers fostering 17.2 million mink and producing around 14 million furs of the highest quality every year. Approximately 98 percent of the skins sold at Kopenhagen Fur Auction are exported. Fur ranks as Danish agriculture's third largest export article, at more than DKK 7 billion annually. The number of farms peaked in the late 1980s at more than 5,000 farms, but the number has declined steadily since, as individual farms grew in size. Danish mink farmers claim their business to be sustainable, feeding the mink food industry waste and using all parts of the dead animal as meat, bone meal and biofuel. Special attention is given to the welfare of the mink, and regular "Open Farm" arrangements are made for the general public. Mink thrive in, but are not a native to Denmark, and it is considered an invasive species. American Mink are now widespread in Denmark and continues to cause problems for the native wildlife, in particular waterfowl. Denmark also has a small production of fox, chinchilla and rabbit furs.

Two hundred professional producers are responsible for the Danish egg production, which was 66 million kg in 2011. Chickens for slaughter are often produced in units with 40,000 broilers. In 2012, 100 million chickens were slaughtered. In the minor productions of poultry, 13 million ducks, 1.4 million geese and 5.0 million turkeys were slaughtered in 2012.

Organic production

Organic farming and production has increased considerably and continuously in Denmark since 1987 when the first official regulations of this particular agricultural method came into effect. In 2017, the export of organic products reached DK 2.95 billion, a 153% increase from 2012 five years earlier, and a 21% increase from 2016. The import of organic products has always been higher than the exports though and reached DK 3.86 billion in 2017. After some years of stagnation, close to 10% of the cultivated land is now categorized as organically farmed, and 13.6% for the dairy industry, as of 2017.

Denmark has the highest retail consumption share for organic products in the world. In 2017, the share was at 13.3%, accounting for a total of DKK 12.1 billion.

Natural resource extraction

Denmark has some sources of oil and natural gas in the North Sea with Esbjerg being the main city for the oil and gas industry. Production has decreased in recent years, though. Whereas in 2006 output (measured as gross value added or GVA) in mining and quarrying industries made up more than 4% of Denmarks's total GVA, in 2017 it amounted to 1.2%. The sector is very capital-intensive, so the share of employment is much lower: About 2,000 persons worked in the oil and gas extraction sector in 2016, and another 1,000 persons in extraction of gravel and stone, or in total about 0.1% of total employment in Denmark.

Engineering and High-tech

Denmark houses a number of significant engineering and high-technology firms, within the sectors of industrial equipment, aerospace, robotics, pharmaceutical and electronics.

Electronics and industrial equipment

Danfoss, headquartered in Sønderborg, designs and manufactures industrial electronics, heating and cooling equipment, as well as drivetrains and power solutions.
 
Denmark is also a large exporter of pumps, with the company Grundfos holding 50% of the market share, manufacturing circulation pumps.

Manufacturing

The labour productivity level of Denmark is one of the highest in Europe. OECD, 2015[103]

In 2017 total output (gross value added) in manufacturing industries amounted to 14.4% of total output in Denmark. 325,000 people or a little less than 12% of all employed persons worked in manufacturing (including utilities, mining and quarrying) in 2016. Main sub-industries are manufacture of pharmaceuticals, machinery, and food products.

Service industry

In 2017 total output (gross value added) in service industries amounted to 75.2% of total output in Denmark, and 79.9% of all employed people worked here (in 2016). Apart from public administration, education and health services, main service sub-industries were trade and transport services, and business services.

Transport

Copenhagen Central Station with S-Trains.

Significant investment has been made in building road and rail links between Copenhagen and Malmö, Sweden (the Øresund Bridge), and between Zealand and Funen (the Great Belt Fixed Link). The Copenhagen Malmö Port was also formed between the two cities as the common port for the cities of both nations.

The main railway operator is Danske Statsbaner (Danish State Railways) for passenger services and DB Schenker Rail for freight trains. The railway tracks are maintained by Banedanmark. Copenhagen has a small Metro system, the Copenhagen Metro and the greater Copenhagen area has an extensive electrified suburban railway network, the S-train

Private vehicles are increasingly used as a means of transport. New cars are taxed by means of a registration tax (85% to 150%) and VAT (25%). The motorway network now covers 1,300 km.

Denmark is in a strong position in terms of integrating fluctuating and unpredictable energy sources such as wind power in the grid. It is this knowledge that Denmark now aims to exploit in the transport sector by focusing on intelligent battery systems (V2G) and plug-in vehicles.

Energy

Denmark has invested heavily in windfarms. In 2015, 42% of the domestic electricity consumption comes from wind.
 
Fossil fuel consumption in Denmark.
 
Denmark has changed its energy consumption from 99% fossil fuels (92% oil (all imported) and 7% coal) and 1% biofuels in 1972 to 73% fossil fuels (37% oil (all domestic), 18% coal and 18% natural gas (all domestic)) and 27% renewables (largely biofuels) in 2015. The goal is a full independence of fossil fuels by 2050. This drastic change was initially inspired largely by the discovery of Danish oil and gas reserves in the North Sea in 1972 and the 1973 oil crisis. The course took a giant leap forward in 1984, when the Danish North Sea oil and gas fields, developed by native industry in close cooperation with the state, started major productions. In 1997, Denmark became self-sufficient with energy and the overall CO2 emission from the energy sector began to fall by 1996. Wind energy contribution to the total energy consumption has risen from 1% in 1997 to 5% in 2015.

Since 2000, Denmark has increased gross domestic product (GDP) and at the same time decreased energy consumption. Since 1972, the overall energy consumption has dropped by 6%, even though the GDP has doubled in the same period. Denmark had the 6th best energy security in the world in 2014. Denmark has had relatively high energy taxation to encourage careful use of energy since the oil crises in the 1970s, and Danish industry has adapted to this and gained a competitive edge. The so-called "green taxes" have been broadly criticised partly for being higher than in other countries, but also for being more of a tool for gathering government revenue than a method of promoting "greener" behaviour.

2015 overall energy taxes, in billions DKK

Oil Gasoline Natural gas Coal Electricity
Excise&VAT 9.3 7.3 3.3 2.5 11.7

Denmark has low electricity costs (including costs for cleaner energy) in EU, but general taxes (11.7 billion DKK in 2015)[118] make the electricity price for households the highest in Europe. As of 2015, Denmark has no environment tax on electricity.

Denmark is a long time leader in wind energy and a prominent exporter of Vestas and Siemens wind turbines, and as of May 2011 Denmark derives 3.1% of its gross domestic product from renewable (clean) energy technology and energy efficiency, or around €6.5 billion ($9.4 billion). It has integrated fluctuating and less predictable energy sources such as wind power into the grid. Wind produced the equivalent of 43% of Denmark's total electricity consumption in 2017. The share of total energy production is smaller: In 2015, wind accounted for 5% of total Danish energy production.

Energinet.dk is the Danish national transmission system operator for electricity and natural gas. The electricity grids of western Denmark and eastern Denmark were not connected until 2010 when the 600MW Great Belt Power Link went into operation.

Cogeneration plants are the norm in Denmark, usually with district heating which serves 1.7 million households.

Waste-to-energy incinerators produce mostly heating and hot water. Vestforbrænding in Glostrup Municipality operates Denmark's largest incinerator, a cogeneration plant which supplies electricity to 80,000 households and heating equivalent to the consumption in 63,000 households (2016). Amager Bakke is an example of a new incinerator being built.

Greenland and the Faroe Islands

In addition to Denmark proper, the Kingdom of Denmark comprises two autonomous constituent countries in the North Atlantic Ocean: Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Both use the Danish krone as their currency, but form separate economies, having separate national accounts etc. Both countries receive an annual fiscal subsidy from Denmark which amounts to about 25% of Greenland's GDP and 11% of Faroese GDP. For both countries, fishing industry is a major economic activity.

Neither Greenland nor the Faroe Islands are members of the European Union. Greenland left the European Economic Community in 1986, and the Faroe Islands declined membership in 1973, when Denmark joined.

J. B. S. Haldane

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
J. B. S. Haldane

J. B. S. Haldane.jpg
Haldane in 1914
Born5 November 1892
Oxford, England
Died1 December 1964 (aged 72)
Bhubaneswar, India
Citizenship
  • British (until 1961)
  • Indian
EducationEton College
Alma materUniversity of Oxford
Known for
Spouse(s)
Awards
Scientific career
Fields
Institutions
Academic advisorsFrederick Gowland Hopkins
Doctoral students
Military career
Service/branchBritish Army
Years of service1914–1920
RankCaptain
Battles/warsFirst World War

John Burdon Sanderson Haldane FRS (/ˈhɔːldn/; 5 November 1892 – 1 December 1964) was a British-Indian scientist known for his work in the study of physiology, genetics, evolutionary biology, and mathematics. He made innovative contributions to the fields of statistics and biostatistics.

His article on abiogenesis in 1929 introduced the "primordial soup theory", and it became the foundation to build physical models for the chemical origin of life. Haldane established human gene maps for haemophilia and colour blindness on the X chromosome, and codified Haldane's rule on sterility in the heterogametic sex of hybrids in species. He correctly proposed that sickle-cell disease confers some immunity to malaria. He was the first to suggest the central idea of in vitro fertilisation, as well as concepts such as hydrogen economy, cis and trans-acting regulation, coupling reaction, molecular repulsion, the darwin (as a unit of evolution) and organismal cloning. In 1957 he articulated Haldane's dilemma, a limit on the speed of beneficial evolution which subsequently proved incorrect. He willed his body for medical studies, as he wanted to remain useful even in death. He is also remembered for coining the words "clone" and "cloning" in human biology, and "ectogenesis".

Haldane's first paper in 1915 demonstrated genetic linkage in mammals. Subsequent works established a unification of Mendelian genetics and Darwinian evolution by natural selection whilst laying the groundwork for modern evolutionary synthesis and thus helped to create population genetics.

Haldane was a professed socialist, Marxist, atheist and humanist whose political dissent led him to leave England in 1956 and live in India, becoming a naturalised Indian citizen in 1961. He was the son of John Scott Haldane.

Arthur C. Clarke credited him as "perhaps the most brilliant science populariser of his generation". Nobel laureate Peter Medawar called Haldane "the cleverest man I ever knew". According to Theodosius Dobzhansky, "Haldane was always recognized as a singular case"; and to Michael J. D. White, "the most erudite biologist of his generation, and perhaps of the century."

Biography

His father John Scott Haldane c. 1910

Early life and education

Haldane was born in Oxford to John Scott Haldane, a physiologist, scientist, a philosopher and a Liberal, and Louisa Kathleen Trotter, a Conservative. His younger sister, Naomi Mitchison, became a writer, and his uncle was Viscount Haldane and his aunt the author Elizabeth Haldane. Descended from an aristocratic and secular family of the Clan Haldane, he would later claim that his Y chromosome could be traced back to Robert the Bruce.

He grew up at 11 Crick Road, North Oxford. He learnt to read at the age of three, and at four, after injuring his forehead he asked the doctor, "Is this oxyhaemoglobin or carboxyhaemoglobin?". From age eight he worked with his father in their home laboratory where he experienced his first self-experimentation, the method he would later be famous for. He and his father became their own "human guinea pigs", such as in their investigation on the effects of poison gases. In 1899 his family moved to "Cherwell", a late Victorian house at the outskirts of Oxford with its own private laboratory.
His formal education began in 1897 at Oxford Preparatory School (now Dragon School), where he gained a First Scholarship in 1904 to Eton. In 1905 he joined Eton, where he experienced severe abuse from senior students for allegedly being arrogant. The indifference of authority left him with a lasting hatred for the English education system. However, the ordeal did not stop him from becoming Captain of the school. He studied mathematics and classics at New College at the University of Oxford and obtained first-class honours in mathematical moderations in 1912 and first-class honours in Greats in 1914. He became engrossed in genetics and presented a paper on gene linkage in vertebrates in the summer of 1912. His first technical paper, a 30-page long article on haemoglobin function, was published that same year, as a co-author alongside his father.

Career

His education was interrupted by the First World War during which he fought in the British Army, being commissioned a temporary second lieutenant in the 3rd Battalion of the Black Watch (Royal Highland Regiment) on 15 August 1914. He was promoted to temporary lieutenant on 18 February 1915 and to temporary captain on 18 October. He served in France and Iraq, where he was wounded. He relinquished his commission on 1 April 1920, retaining his rank of captain. For his ferocity and aggressiveness in battles, his commander called him the "bravest and dirtiest officer in my Army."

Between 1919 and 1922 he was a Fellow of New College, Oxford, where he researched physiology and genetics. He then moved to the University of Cambridge, where he accepted a readership in Biochemistry and taught until 1932. From 1927 until 1937 he was also Head of Genetical Research at the John Innes Horticultural Institution. During his nine years at Cambridge, Haldane worked on enzymes and genetics, particularly the mathematical side of genetics. He was the Fullerian Professor of Physiology at the Royal Institution from 1930 to 1932 and in 1933 he became full Professor of Genetics at University College London, where he spent most of his academic career. Four years later he became the first Weldon Professor of Biometry at University College London.

In 1924, Haldane met Charlotte Franken. So that they could marry, Charlotte divorced her husband, Jack Burghes, causing some controversy. Haldane was almost dismissed from Cambridge for the way he handled his meeting with her. They married in 1926. Following their separation in 1942, the Haldanes divorced in 1945. Later that year he married Helen Spurway.

Haldane, inspired by his father, would expose himself to danger to obtain data. To test the effects of acidification of the blood he drank dilute hydrochloric acid, enclosed himself in an airtight room containing 7% carbon dioxide, and found that it 'gives one a rather violent headache'. One experiment to study elevated levels of oxygen saturation triggered a fit which resulted in him suffering crushed vertebrae. In his decompression chamber experiments, he and his volunteers suffered perforated eardrums. But, as Haldane stated in What is Life, "the drum generally heals up; and if a hole remains in it, although one is somewhat deaf, one can blow tobacco smoke out of the ear in question, which is a social accomplishment."

In India

Marcello Siniscalco (standing) and Haldane in Andhra Pradesh, India, 1964
 
J. B. S. Haldane Avenue in Kolkata, the busy connecting road from Eastern Metropolitan Bypass to Park Circus area containing Science City
 
In 1956, Haldane left University College London, and joined the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) in Kolkata, India, where he headed the biometry unit. Officially he stated that he left the UK because of the Suez Crisis, writing: "Finally, I am going to India because I consider that recent acts of the British Government have been violations of international law." He believed that the warm climate would do him good, and that India shared his socialist dreams. The university had sacked his wife Helen for excessive drinking and refusing to pay a fine, triggering Haldane's resignation. He declared he would no longer wear socks, "Sixty years in socks is enough." and always dressed in Indian attire.

He was keenly interested in inexpensive research. He wrote to Julian Huxley about his observations on Vanellus malabaricus, the yellow-wattled lapwing. He advocated the use of Vigna sinensis (cowpea) as a model for studying plant genetics. He took an interest in the pollination of Lantana camara. He lamented that Indian universities forced those who took up biology to drop mathematics. Haldane took an interest in the study of floral symmetry. In January 1961 he befriended Gary Botting, 1960 U.S. Science Fair winner in zoology (who had first visited the Haldanes along with Susan Brown, 1960 U.S. National Science Fair winner in botany), inviting him to share the results of his experiments hybridising Antheraea silk moths. J.B.S., his wife Helen Spurway, and Krishna Dronamraju were present at the Oberoi Grand Hotel in Kolkata when Brown reminded the Haldanes that she and Botting had a previously scheduled event that would prevent them from accepting an invitation to a banquet proposed by J.B.S. and Helen in their honour and had regretfully declined the honour. After the two students had left the hotel, Haldane went on his much-publicized hunger strike to protest what he regarded as a "U.S. insult." When the director of the ISI, P. C. Mahalanobis, confronted Haldane about both the hunger strike and the unbudgeted banquet, Haldane resigned from his post (in February 1961), and moved to a newly established biometry unit in Odisha.

Haldane took Indian citizenship; he was interested in Hinduism and became a vegetarian. In 1961, Haldane described India as "the closest approximation to the Free World." Jerzy Neyman objected that "India has its fair share of scoundrels and a tremendous amount of poor unthinking and disgustingly subservient individuals who are not attractive." Haldane retorted:
Perhaps one is freer to be a scoundrel in India than elsewhere. So one was in the U.S.A in the days of people like Jay Gould, when (in my opinion) there was more internal freedom in the U.S.A than there is today. The "disgusting subservience" of the others has its limits. The people of Calcutta riot, upset trams, and refuse to obey police regulations, in a manner which would have delighted Jefferson. I don't think their activities are very efficient, but that is not the question at issue.
When on 25 June 1962 he was described in print as a "Citizen of the World" by Groff Conklin, Haldane's response was as follows:
No doubt I am in some sense a citizen of the world. But I believe with Thomas Jefferson that one of the chief duties of a citizen is to be a nuisance to the government of his state. As there is no world state, I cannot do this. On the other hand, I can be, and am, a nuisance to the government of India, which has the merit of permitting a good deal of criticism, though it reacts to it rather slowly. I also happen to be proud of being a citizen of India, which is a lot more diverse than Europe, let alone the U.S.A, the U.S.S.R or China, and thus a better model for a possible world organisation. It may of course break up, but it is a wonderful experiment. So, I want to be labeled as a citizen of India.

Death

Shortly before his death from cancer, Haldane wrote a comic poem while in the hospital, mocking his own incurable disease. It was read by his friends, who appreciated the consistent irreverence with which Haldane had lived his life. The poem first appeared in print in 21 February 1964 issue of the New Statesman, and runs:
Cancer's a Funny Thing:
I wish I had the voice of Homer
To sing of rectal carcinoma,
This kills a lot more chaps, in fact,
Than were bumped off when Troy was sacked ...
The poem ends:
... I know that cancer often kills,
But so do cars and sleeping pills;
And it can hurt one till one sweats,
So can bad teeth and unpaid debts.
A spot of laughter, I am sure,
Often accelerates one's cure;
So let us patients do our bit
To help the surgeons make us fit.
Haldane died on 1 December 1964 in Bhubaneswar. He willed that his body be used for medical research and teaching  at the Rangaraya Medical College, Kakinada.
My body has been used for both purposes during my lifetime and after my death, whether I continue to exist or not, I shall have no further use for it, and desire that it shall be used by others. Its refrigeration, if this is possible, should be a first charge on my estate.

Academic achievements

Following his father's footsteps, Haldane's first publication was on the mechanism of gaseous exchange by haemoglobin. and subsequently worked on the chemical properties of blood as a pH buffer. He investigated several aspects of kidney functions and mechanism of excretion.

Enzyme kinetics

In 1925, with G. E. Briggs, Haldane derived a new interpretation of the enzyme kinetics law described by Victor Henri in 1903, different from the 1913 Michaelis–Menten equation. Leonor Michaelis and Maud Menten assumed that enzyme (catalyst) and substrate (reactant) are in fast equilibrium with their complex, which then dissociates to yield product and free enzyme. The Briggs–Haldane equation was of the same algebraic form; but their derivation is based on the quasi-steady state approximation, which is the concentration of intermediate complex (or complexes) does not change. As a result, the microscopic meaning of the "Michaelis Constant" (Km) is different. Although commonly referring to it as Michaelis–Menten kinetics, most of the current models typically use the Briggs–Haldane derivation.

Genetic linkage

With his sister Naomi Mitchison, Haldane started investigating Mendelian genetics in 1908, used guinea pigs and mice, publishing Reduplication in mice in 1915 the first demonstration of genetic linkage in mammals, showing that certain genetic traits tend to be inherited together (as was later discovered, because of their proximity on chromosomes). As the paper was written during Haldane's service in the First World War, James F. Crow called it "the most important science article ever written in a front-line trench". He was the first to demonstrate linkage in chickens in 1921, and (with Julia Bell) in humans in 1937.

Haldane's principle

In his essay On Being the Right Size he outlines Haldane's principle, which states that the size very often defines what bodily equipment an animal must have: "Insects, being so small, do not have oxygen-carrying bloodstreams. What little oxygen their cells require can be absorbed by simple diffusion of air through their bodies. But being larger means an animal must have complicated oxygen pumping and distributing systems to reach all the cells." The conceptual metaphor to animal allometry has been of use in energy economics and secession ideas.

Origin of life

Haldane introduced the modern concept of abiogenesis in an eight-page article titled The origin of life, in the Rationalist Annual in 1929, describing the primitive ocean as a "vast chemical laboratory" containing a mixture of inorganic compounds – like a "hot dilute soup" in which organic compounds could have formed. Under the solar energy the anoxic atmosphere containing carbon dioxide, ammonia and water vapour gave rise to a variety of organic compounds, "living or half-living things". The first molecules reacted with one another to produce more complex compounds, and ultimately the cellular components. At some point a kind of "oily film" was produced that enclosed self-replicating nucleic acids, thereby becoming the first cell. J. D. Bernal named the hypothesis biopoiesis or biopoesis, the process of living matter spontaneously evolving from self-replicating but lifeless molecules. Haldane further hypothesised that viruses were the intermediate entities between the prebiotic soup and the first cells. He asserted that prebiotic life would have been "in the virus stage for many millions of years before a suitable assemblage of elementary units was brought together in the first cell." The idea was generally dismissed as "wild speculation". Alexander Oparin had suggested a similar idea in Russian in 1924 (published in English in 1936). The gained some empirical support in 1953 with the classic Miller–Urey experiment. Since then, the primordial soup theory (Oparin–Haldane hypothesis) has become prevalent in the study of abiogenesis.

Malaria and Sickle-Cell Anemia

In 1949, Haldane proposed that genetic disorders in humans living in malaria-endemic regions provided a phenotype with immunity to blood-borne haemophiles. He noted that mutations expressed in red blood cells, such as sickle-cell anemia and various thalassemias, were prevalent only in tropical regions where malaria has been endemic. He further observed that these were favourable traits for natural selection which protected individuals from receiving malarial infection. This idea was eventually confirmed by Anthony C. Allison in 1954.

Population genetics

He was one of the three major figures to develop the mathematical theory of population genetics, along with Ronald Fisher and Sewall Wright. He thus played an important role in the modern evolutionary synthesis of the early 20th century. He re-established natural selection as the central mechanism of evolution by explaining it as a mathematical consequence of Mendelian inheritance. He wrote a series of ten papers, A Mathematical Theory of Natural and Artificial Selection, deriving expressions for the direction and rate of change of gene frequencies, and also analyzing the interaction of natural selection with mutation and migration. Haldane's book, The Causes of Evolution (1932), summarised these results, especially in its extensive appendix.

His contributions to statistical human genetics included: the first methods using maximum likelihood for the estimation of human linkage maps; pioneering methods for estimating human mutation rates; the first estimates of mutation rate in humans (2 × 10−5 mutations per gene per generation for the X-linked haemophilia gene); and the first notion that there is a "cost of natural selection". At the John Innes Horticultural Institution, he developed the complicated linkage theory for polyploids; and extended the idea of gene/enzyme relationships with the biochemical and genetic study of plant pigments.

Political views

A Low cartoon featuring Haldane – "Prophesies for 1949"
 
Lysenko speaking at the Kremlin in 1935. Behind him are (left to right) Stanislav Kosior, Anastas Mikoyan, Andrei Andreev and Joseph Stalin.
 
Haldane became a socialist during the First World War; supported the Second Spanish Republic during the Spanish Civil War; and then became an open supporter of the Communist Party in 1937. A pragmatic dialectical-materialist Marxist, he wrote many articles for the Daily Worker. In On Being the Right Size, he wrote: "while nationalization of certain industries is an obvious possibility in the largest of states, I find it no easier to picture a completely socialized British Empire or United States than an elephant turning somersaults or a hippopotamus jumping a hedge."

Haldane has been accused by authors including Peter Wright and Chapman Pincher to have been a Soviet GRU spy codenamed Intelligentsia.

In 1938, he proclaimed enthusiastically that "I think that Marxism is true." He joined the Communist Party of Great Britain in 1942. He was pressed to speak out about the rise of Lysenkoism and the persecution of geneticists in the Soviet Union as anti-Darwinist and the political suppression of genetics as incompatible with dialectical materialism. He shifted his polemic focus to the United Kingdom, criticizing the dependence of scientific research on financial patronage. In 1941 he wrote about the Soviet trial of his friend and fellow geneticist Nikolai Vavilov:
The controversy among Soviet geneticists has been largely one between the academic scientist, represented by Vavilov and interested primarily in the collection of facts, and the man who wants results, represented by Lysenko. It has been conducted not with venom, but in a friendly spirit. Lysenko said (in the October discussions of 1939): 'The important thing is not to dispute; let us work in a friendly manner on a plan elaborated scientifically. Let us take up definite problems, receive assignments from the People's Commissariat of Agriculture of the USSR and fulfil them scientifically. Soviet genetics, as a whole, is a successful attempt at synthesis of these two contrasted points of view.'
By the end of the Second World War Haldane had become an explicit critic of the regime. He left the party in 1950, shortly after considering standing for Parliament as a Communist Party candidate. He continued to admire Joseph Stalin, describing him in 1962 as "a very great man who did a very good job".

Social and scientific views

Human cloning

Haldane was the first to have thought of the genetic basis for human cloning, and the eventual artificial breeding of superior individuals. For this he introduced the terms "clone" and "cloning", modifying the earlier "clon" which had been used in agriculture since the early 20th century (from Greek klon, twig). He introduced the term in his speech on "Biological Possibilities for the Human Species of the Next Ten Thousand Years" at the Ciba Foundation Symposium on Man and his Future in 1963. He said:
It is extremely hopeful that some human cell lines can be grown on a medium of precisely known chemical composition. Perhaps the first step will be the production of a clone from a single fertilized egg, as in Brave New World...
On the general principle that men will make all possible mistakes before choosing the right path, we shall no doubt clone the wrong people [like Hitler]...
Assuming that cloning is possible, I expect that most clones would be made from people aged at least fifty, except for athletes
and dancers, who would be cloned younger. They would be made from people who were held to have excelled in a socially acceptable accomplishment.

Ectogenesis and in vitro fertilisation

His essay Daedalus; or, Science and the Future (1924) introduced the term ectogenesis for the concept of what is later known as in vitro fertilisation (test tube babies). He envisioned ectogenesis as a tool for creating better individuals (eugenics). Haldane's work was an influence on Huxley's Brave New World (1932) and was also admired by Gerald Heard. Various essays on science were collected and published in a volume titled Possible Worlds in 1927. His book, A.R.P. (Air Raid Precautions) (1938) combined his physiological research into the effects of stress upon the human body with his experience of air raids during the Spanish Civil War to provide a scientific account of the likely effects of the air raids that Britain was to endure during the Second World War.

Criticism of C.S. Lewis

Along with Olaf Stapledon, Charles Kay Ogden, I. A. Richards, and H. G. Wells, Haldane was accused by C. S. Lewis of scientism. Haldane criticised Lewis and his Ransom Trilogy for the "complete mischaracterisation of science, and his disparagement of the human race". He wrote a book for children titled My Friend Mr Leakey (1937), containing the stories "A Meal With a Magician", "A Day in the Life of a Magician", "Mr Leakey's Party", "Rats", "The Snake with the Golden Teeth", and "My Magic Collar Stud"; later editions featured illustrations by Quentin Blake.

Hydrogen-generating windmills

In 1923, in a talk given in Cambridge titled "Science and the Future", Haldane, foreseeing the exhaustion of coal for power generation in Britain, proposed a network of hydrogen-generating windmills. This is the first proposal of the hydrogen-based renewable energy economy.

Scientists

In his An Autobiography in Brief, published shortly before his death in India, Haldane named four close associates as showing promise to become illustrious scientists: T. A. Davis, Dronamraju Krishna Rao, Suresh Jayakar and S. K. Roy.

Awards and honours

Haldane was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1932. The French Government conferred him its National Order of the Legion of Honour in 1937. In 1952, he received the Darwin Medal from the Royal Society. In 1956, he was awarded the Huxley Memorial Medal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain. He received the Feltrinelli Prize from Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in 1961. He also received an Honorary Doctorate of Science, an Honorary Fellowship at New College, and the Kimber Award of the US National Academy of Sciences. He was awarded the Linnean Society of London's prestigious Darwin–Wallace Medal in 1958.

Legacy

The Haldane Lecture at the John Innes Centre, where Haldane worked from 1927 to 1937 is named in his honour. The JBS Haldane Lecture of The Genetics Society is also named in his honour. 

Haldane was parodied as "the biologist too absorbed in his experiments to notice his friends bedding his wife" by his friend Aldous Huxley in the novel Antic Hay (1923). Biography on him was published as A Dominant Character in 2019.

Quotations

Oxford University Museum of Natural History display dedicated to Haldane and his reply when asked to comment on the mind of the Creator.
  • He is famous for the (possibly apocryphal) response that he gave when some theologians asked him what could be inferred about the mind of the Creator from the works of His Creation: "An inordinate fondness for beetles." This is in reference to there being over 400,000 known species of beetles in the world, and that this represents 40% of all known insect species (at the time of the statement, it was over half of all known insect species).
  • He was often quoted as saying, "My own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose."
  • "It seems to me immensely unlikely that mind is a mere by-product of matter. For if my mental processes are determined wholly by the motions of atoms in my brain I have no reason to suppose that my beliefs are true. They may be sound chemically, but that does not make them sound logically. And hence I have no reason for supposing my brain to be composed of atoms."
  • "Teleology is like a mistress to a biologist: he cannot live without her but he's unwilling to be seen with her in public."
  • "I had gastritis for about fifteen years until I read Lenin and other writers, who showed me what was wrong with our society and how to cure it. Since then I have needed no magnesia."
  • "I suppose the process of acceptance will pass through the usual four stages: (i) This is worthless nonsense; (ii) This is an interesting, but perverse, point of view; (iii) This is true, but quite unimportant; (iv) I always said so."
  • "Three hundred and ten species in all of India, representing two hundred and thirty-eight genera, sixty-two families, nineteen different orders. All of them on the Ark. And this is only India, and only the birds."
  • "The stupidity of the mynah shows that in birds, as in men, linguistic and practical abilities are not very highly correlated. A student who can repeat a page of a text book may get first class honours, but may be incapable of doing research."
  • When asked whether he would lay down his life for his brother, Haldane, presaging Hamilton's rule, supposedly replied "two brothers or eight cousins".

Publications

Complexity economics

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexit...