Greenhouse gas (udated)

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Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Energy influx and emittance are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m²).

 

A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs and emits radiant energy within the thermal infrared range. Greenhouse gases cause the greenhouse effect. The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about −18 °C (0 °F), rather than the present average of 15 °C (59 °F). The atmospheres of Venus, Mars and Titan also contain greenhouse gases.

Human activities since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (around 1750) have produced a 40% increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂), from 280 ppm in 1750 to 406 ppm in early 2017. This increase has occurred despite the uptake of more than half of the emissions by various natural "sinks" involved in the carbon cycle. The vast majority of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (i.e., emissions produced by human activities) come from combustion of fossil fuels, principally coal, oil, and natural gas, with additional contributions coming from deforestation, changes in land use, soil erosion and agriculture (including livestock).

Should greenhouse gas emissions continue at their rate in 2017, Earth's surface temperature could exceed historical values as early as 2047, with potentially harmful effects on ecosystems, biodiversity and human livelihoods. At current emission rates temperatures could increase by 2 °C, which the United Nations' IPCC designated as the upper limit to avoid "dangerous" levels, by 2036.

Gases in Earth's atmosphere

Atmospheric absorption and scattering at different wavelengths of electromagnetic waves. The largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is not far from the maximum in the thermal emission from ground, and it partly closes the window of transparency of water; hence its major effect.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are those that absorb and emit infrared radiation in the wavelength range emitted by Earth. In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are:

• Water vapor (H
  ₂O)
• Carbon dioxide (CO
  ₂)
• Methane (CH
  ₄)
• Nitrous oxide (N
  ₂O)
• Ozone (O
  ₃)
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
• Hydrofluorocarbons (incl. HCFCs and HFCs)

Atmospheric concentrations are determined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the atmosphere by conversion to a different chemical compound or absorption by bodies of water). The proportion of an emission remaining in the atmosphere after a specified time is the "airborne fraction" (AF). The annual airborne fraction is the ratio of the atmospheric increase in a given year to that year's total emissions. As of 2006 the annual airborne fraction for CO₂ was about 0.45. The annual airborne fraction increased at a rate of 0.25 ± 0.21% per year over the period 1959–2006.

Non-greenhouse gases

The major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N
₂), oxygen (O
₂), and argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases because molecules containing two atoms of the same element such as N
₂ and O
₂ have no net change in the distribution of their electrical charges when they vibrate, and monatomic gases such as Ar do not have vibrational modes. Hence they are almost totally unaffected by infrared radiation. Some heterodiatomic molecules containing atoms of different elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl) do absorb infrared radiation, although these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. Therefore, they do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect and often are omitted when discussing greenhouse gases.

Indirect radiative effects

The false colors in this image represent concentrations of carbon monoxide in the lower atmosphere, ranging from about 390 parts per billion (dark brown pixels), to 220 parts per billion (red pixels), to 50 parts per billion (blue pixels).

 

Some gases have indirect radiative effects (whether or not they are greenhouse gases themselves). This happens in two main ways. One way is that when they break down in the atmosphere they produce another greenhouse gas. For example, methane and carbon monoxide (CO) are oxidized to give carbon dioxide (and methane oxidation also produces water vapor). Oxidation of CO to CO₂ directly produces an unambiguous increase in radiative forcing although the reason is subtle. The peak of the thermal IR emission from Earth's surface is very close to a strong vibrational absorption band of CO₂ (15 microns, or 667 cm⁻¹). On the other hand, the single CO vibrational band only absorbs IR at much shorter wavelengths (4.7 microns, or 2145 cm⁻¹), where the emission of radiant energy from Earth's surface is at least a factor of ten lower. Oxidation of methane to CO₂, which requires reactions with the OH radical, produces an instantaneous reduction in radiative absorption and emission since CO₂ is a weaker greenhouse gas than methane. However, the oxidation of CO and CH
₄ are entwined since both consume OH radicals. In any case, the calculation of the total radiative effect includes both direct and indirect forcing. 

A second type of indirect effect happens when chemical reactions in the atmosphere involving these gases change the concentrations of greenhouse gases. For example, the destruction of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) in the atmosphere can produce ozone. The size of the indirect effect can depend strongly on where and when the gas is emitted.

Methane has indirect effects in addition to forming CO₂. The main chemical that reacts with methane in the atmosphere is the hydroxyl radical (OH), thus more methane means that the concentration of OH goes down. Effectively, methane increases its own atmospheric lifetime and therefore its overall radiative effect. The oxidation of methane can produce both ozone and water; and is a major source of water vapor in the normally dry stratosphere. CO and NMVOCs produce CO₂ when they are oxidized. They remove OH from the atmosphere, and this leads to higher concentrations of methane. The surprising effect of this is that the global warming potential of CO is three times that of CO₂. The same process that converts NMVOCs to carbon dioxide can also lead to the formation of tropospheric ozone. Halocarbons have an indirect effect because they destroy stratospheric ozone. Finally, hydrogen can lead to ozone production and CH
₄ increases as well as producing stratospheric water vapor.

Contribution of clouds to Earth's greenhouse effect

The major non-gas contributor to Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on greenhouse gas radiative properties. Clouds are water droplets or ice crystals suspended in the atmosphere.

Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect

Schmidt et al. (2010) analyzed how individual components of the atmosphere contribute to the total greenhouse effect. They estimated that water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth's greenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, carbon dioxide 20%, and the minor greenhouse gases and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. In the study, the reference model atmosphere is for 1980 conditions. Image credit: NASA.

 

The contribution of each gas to the greenhouse effect is determined by the characteristics of that gas, its abundance, and any indirect effects it may cause. For example, the direct radiative effect of a mass of methane is about 84 times stronger than the same mass of carbon dioxide over a 20-year time frame but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is smaller, in part due to its shorter atmospheric lifetime. On the other hand, in addition to its direct radiative impact, methane has a large, indirect radiative effect because it contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. (2005) argue that the contribution to climate change from methane is at least double previous estimates as a result of this effect.

When ranked by their direct contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:

Compound	Formula	Concentration in atmosphere (ppm)	Contribution (%)
Water vapor and clouds	H 2O	10–50,000(A)	36–72%
Carbon dioxide	CO2	~400	9–26%
Methane	CH 4	~1.8	4–9%
Ozone	O 3	2–8(B)	3–7%
notes: (A) Water vapor strongly varies locally (B) The concentration in stratosphere. About 90% of the ozone in Earth's atmosphere is contained in the stratosphere.

In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small quantities.

Proportion of direct effects at a given moment

It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases. In addition, some gases, such as methane, are known to have large indirect effects that are still being quantified.

Atmospheric lifetime

Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days, major greenhouse gases are well mixed and take many years to leave the atmosphere. Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999) defines the lifetime ${\displaystyle \tau }$ of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically ${\displaystyle \tau }$ can be defined as the ratio of the mass ${\displaystyle m}$ (in kg) of X in the box to its removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box (${\displaystyle F_{out}}$), chemical loss of X (${\displaystyle L}$), and deposition of X (${\displaystyle D}$) (all in kg/s): ${\displaystyle \tau ={\frac {m}{F_{out}+L+D}}}$. If output of this gas into the box ceased, then after time ${\displaystyle \tau }$, its concentration would decrease by about 63%. 

The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following a sudden increase or decrease in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime.

Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely. The atmospheric lifetime of CO₂ is estimated of the order of 30–95 years. This figure accounts for CO₂ molecules being removed from the atmosphere by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, and other processes. However, this excludes the balancing fluxes of CO₂ into the atmosphere from the geological reservoirs, which have slower characteristic rates. Although more than half of the CO₂ emitted is removed from the atmosphere within a century, some fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years. Similar issues apply to other greenhouse gases, many of which have longer mean lifetimes than CO₂, e.g. N₂O has a mean atmospheric lifetime of 121 years.

Radiative forcing

Earth absorbs some of the radiant energy received from the sun, reflects some of it as light and reflects or radiates the rest back to space as heat. Earth's surface temperature depends on this balance between incoming and outgoing energy. If this energy balance is shifted, Earth's surface becomes warmer or cooler, leading to a variety of changes in global climate.

A number of natural and man-made mechanisms can affect the global energy balance and force changes in Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases are one such mechanism. Greenhouse gases absorb and emit some of the outgoing energy radiated from Earth's surface, causing that heat to be retained in the lower atmosphere. As explained above, some greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, and therefore can affect Earth's energy balance over a long period. Radiative forcing quantifies the effect of factors that influence Earth's energy balance, including changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Positive radiative forcing leads to warming by increasing the net incoming energy, whereas negative radiative forcing leads to cooling.

Global warming potential

The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO₂ and evaluated for a specific timescale. Thus, if a gas has a high (positive) radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20-year scale but a small one on a 100-year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO₂ its GWP will increase when the timescale is considered. Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.

Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years. The 2007 IPCC report lists the GWP as 72 over a time scale of 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 years. A 2014 analysis, however, states that although methane's initial impact is about 100 times greater than that of CO₂, because of the shorter atmospheric lifetime, after six or seven decades, the impact of the two gases is about equal, and from then on methane's relative role continues to decline. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO₂ through chemical reactions in the atmosphere.

Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO₂ for several greenhouse gases are given in the following table: 

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO₂ at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases

Gas name	Chemical formula	Lifetime (years)	Global warming potential for given time
			20-yr	100-yr	500-yr
Carbon dioxide	CO2	30–95	1	1	1
Methane	CH 4	12	84	28	7.6
Nitrous oxide	N 2O	121	264	265	153
CFC-12	CCl 2F 2	100	10 800	10 200	5 200
HCFC-22	CHClF 2	12	5 280	1 760	549
Tetrafluoromethane	CF 4	50 000	4 880	6 630	11 200
Hexafluoroethane	C 2F 6	10 000	8 210	11 100	18 200
Sulfur hexafluoride	SF 6	3 200	17 500	23 500	32 600
Nitrogen trifluoride	NF 3	500	12 800	16 100	20 700

The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties. The phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere if half of global-warming emissions are not absorbed.
(NASA simulation; 9 November 2015)

 

Nitrogen dioxide 2014 – global air quality levels
(released 14 December 2015).

Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured in the atmosphere and reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

 

This diagram shows a simplified representation of the contemporary global carbon cycle. Changes are measured in gigatons of carbon per year (GtC/y). Canadell et al. (2007) estimated the growth rate of global average atmospheric CO₂ for 2000–2006 as 1.93 parts-per-million per year (4.1 petagrams of carbon per year).

Natural and anthropogenic sources

Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly constant, because the large natural sources and sinks roughly balanced. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century". In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.

Abbreviations used in the two tables below: ppm = parts-per-million; ppb = parts-per-billion; ppt = parts-per-trillion; W/m² = watts per square meter

 

Current greenhouse gas concentrations

Gas	Pre-1750 tropospheric concentration	Recent tropospheric concentration	Absolute increase since 1750	Percentage increase since 1750	Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)
Carbon dioxide (CO2)	280 ppm	395.4 ppm	115.4 ppm	41.2%	1.88
Methane (CH 4)	700 ppb	1893 ppb / 1762 ppb	1193 ppb / 1062 ppb	170.4% / 151.7%	0.49
Nitrous oxide (N 2O)	270 ppb	326 ppb / 324 ppb	56 ppb / 54 ppb	20.7% / 20.0%	0.17
Tropospheric ozone (O 3)	237 ppb	337 ppb	100 ppb	42%	0.4

Relevant to radiative forcing and/or ozone depletion; all of the  following have no natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial

Gas	Recent tropospheric concentration	Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)
CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane) (CCl 3F)	236 ppt / 234 ppt	0.061
CFC-12 (CCl 2F 2)	527 ppt / 527 ppt	0.169
CFC-113 (Cl 2FC-CClF 2)	74 ppt / 74 ppt	0.022
HCFC-22 (CHClF 2)	231 ppt / 210 ppt	0.046
HCFC-141b (CH 3CCl 2F)	24 ppt / 21 ppt	0.0036
HCFC-142b (CH 3CClF 2)	23 ppt / 21 ppt	0.0042
Halon 1211 (CBrClF 2)	4.1 ppt / 4.0 ppt	0.0012
Halon 1301 (CBrClF 3)	3.3 ppt / 3.3 ppt	0.001
HFC-134a (CH 2FCF 3)	75 ppt / 64 ppt	0.0108
Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4)	85 ppt / 83 ppt	0.0143
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6)	7.79 ppt / 7.39 ppt	0.0043
Other halocarbons	Varies by substance	collectively 0.02
Halocarbons in total		0.3574

400,000 years of ice core data

Ice cores provide evidence for greenhouse gas concentration variations over the past 800,000 years . Both CO₂ and CH
₄ vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record that indicates CO₂ mole fractions stayed within a range of 180 ppm to 280 ppm throughout the last 800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO₂ levels were likely 10 times higher than now. Indeed, higher CO₂ concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma. The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO₂ concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of CO₂ have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks. Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing that raised the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day. This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are approximately 0.645 billion tons of CO₂ per year, whereas humans contribute 29 billion tons of CO₂ each year.

Ice cores

Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial emissions started atmospheric CO₂ mole fractions were about 280 parts per million (ppm), and stayed between 260 and 280 during the preceding ten thousand years. Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago, though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO₂ variability. Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels.

Changes since the Industrial Revolution

Recent year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO₂.

 

Major greenhouse gas trends.

 

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased. For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 ppm to 400 ppm, or 120 ppm over modern pre-industrial levels. The first 30 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to 1958; however the next 90 ppm increase took place within 56 years, from 1958 to 2014.

Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.

Today, the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 million tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock. This increase is the result of human activities by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and boreal regions.

The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases

This graph shows changes in the annual greenhouse gas index (AGGI) between 1979 and 2011.  The AGGI measures the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on their ability to cause changes in Earth's climate.

 

This bar graph shows global greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2005, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents.

 

Modern global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

 

Since about 1750 human activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels. Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity, but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks, mainly photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. As a result of this balance, the atmospheric mole fraction of carbon dioxide remained between 260 and 280 parts per million for the 10,000 years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the industrial era.

It is likely that anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. Future warming is projected to have a range of impacts, including sea level rise, increased frequencies and severities of some extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and regional changes in agricultural productivity.

The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:

• burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. Land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) account for up to one third of total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.
• livestock enteric fermentation and manure management, paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, man-made lakes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane.
• use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes.
• agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N
  ₂O) concentrations.

The seven sources of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):

Seven main fossil fuel combustion sources	Contribution (%)
Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil)	36%
Solid fuels (e.g., coal)	35%
Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas)	20%
Cement production	3 %
Flaring gas industrially and at wells	< 1%
Non-fuel hydrocarbons	< 1%
"International bunker fuels" of transport not included in national inventories	4 %

Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide (N
₂O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride (SF
₆), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs)) are the major anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol international treaty, which came into force in 2005. Emissions limitations specified in the Kyoto Protocol expired in 2012. The Cancún agreement, agreed on in 2010, includes voluntary pledges made by 76 countries to control emissions. At the time of the agreement, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.

Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming, though the two processes often are confused in the media. On 15 October 2016, negotiators from over 170 nations meeting at the summit of the United Nations Environment Programme reached a legally binding accord to phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in an amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

Sectors

This figure shows the relative fraction of anthropogenic greenhouse gases coming from each of eight categories of sources, as estimated by the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project [1]. These values are intended to provide a snapshot of global annual greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000. The top panel shows the sum over all anthropogenic greenhouse gases, weighted by their global warming potential over the next 100 years. This consists of 72% carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8% nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower panels show the comparable information for each of these three primary greenhouse gases, with the same coloring of sectors as used in the top chart. Segments with less than 1% fraction are not labeled.

Tourism

According to UNEP global tourism is closely linked to climate change. Tourism is a significant contributor to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Tourism accounts for about 50% of traffic movements. Rapidly expanding air traffic contributes about 2.5% of the production of CO₂. The number of international travelers is expected to increase from 594 million in 1996 to 1.6 billion by 2020, adding greatly to the problem unless steps are taken to reduce emissions.

Trucking and haulage

The trucking and haulage industry plays a part in production of CO₂, contributing around 20% of the UK's total carbon emissions a year, with only the energy industry having a larger impact at around 39%. Average carbon emissions within the haulage industry are falling—in the thirty-year period from 1977 to 2007, the carbon emissions associated with a 200-mile journey fell by 21 percent; NOx emissions are also down 87 percent, whereas journey times have fallen by around a third. Due to their size, HGVs often receive criticism regarding their CO2 emissions; however, rapid development in engine technology and fuel management is having a largely positive effect.

Plastic

Plastic is produced mainly from Fossil fuels. Plastic manufacturing is estimated to use 8 percent of yearly global oil production. The EPA estimates as many as five ounces of carbon dioxide are emitted for each ounce of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) produced—the type of plastic most commonly used for beverage bottles, the transportation produce greenhouse gases also. Plastic waste emits carbon dioxide when it degrades. In 2018 research claimed that some of the most common plastics in the environment release the greenhouse gases Methane and Ethylene when exposed to sunlight in an amount that can affect the earth climate.

From the other side, if it is placed in a landfill, it becomes a carbon sink although biodegradable plastics have caused methane emissions. Due to the lightness of plastic versus glass or metal, plastic may reduce energy consumption. For example, packaging beverages in PET plastic rather than glass or metal is estimated to save 52% in transportation energy, if the glass or metal packag is single use, of course .

Role of water vapor

Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere at Boulder, Colorado.

 

Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds. Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not directly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales, such as near irrigated fields. Indirectly, human activity that increases global temperatures will increase water vapor concentrations, a process known as water vapor feedback. The atmospheric concentration of vapor is highly variable and depends largely on temperature, from less than 0.01% in extremely cold regions up to 3% by mass in saturated air at about 32 °C.

The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH
₄ and CO₂. Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation establishes that more water vapor will be present per unit volume at elevated temperatures. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor (assuming that the relative humidity remains approximately constant; modeling and observational studies find that this is indeed so). Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this results in further warming and so is a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. Eventually other earth processes offset these positive feedbacks, stabilizing the global temperature at a new equilibrium and preventing the loss of Earth's water through a Venus-like runaway greenhouse effect.

Direct greenhouse gas emissions

Between the period 1970 to 2004, greenhouse gas emissions (measured in CO₂-equivalent) increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year, with CO₂ emissions from the use of fossil fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per year. Total anthropogenic emissions at the end of 2009 were estimated at 49.5 gigatonnes CO₂-equivalent. These emissions include CO₂ from fossil fuel use and from land use, as well as emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

At present, the primary source of CO₂ emissions is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum for electricity and heat.

Regional and national attribution of emissions

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), GHG emissions in the United States can be traced from different sectors. 

There are several different ways of measuring greenhouse gas emissions, for example, see World Bank (2010) for tables of national emissions data. Some variables that have been reported include:

• Definition of measurement boundaries: Emissions can be attributed geographically, to the area where they were emitted (the territory principle) or by the activity principle to the territory produced the emissions. These two principles result in different totals when measuring, for example, electricity importation from one country to another, or emissions at an international airport.
• Time horizon of different gases: Contribution of a given greenhouse gas is reported as a CO₂ equivalent. The calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always known accurately and calculations must be regularly updated to reflect new information.
• What sectors are included in the calculation (e.g., energy industries, industrial processes, agriculture etc.): There is often a conflict between transparency and availability of data.
• The measurement protocol itself: This may be via direct measurement or estimation. The four main methods are the emission factor-based method, mass balance method, predictive emissions monitoring systems, and continuous emissions monitoring systems. These methods differ in accuracy, cost, and usability.

These different measures are sometimes used by different countries to assert various policy/ethical positions on climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 94). The use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.

Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (IEA, 2007, p. 199).

The national accounts balance would be positively related to carbon emissions. The national accounts balance shows the difference between exports and imports. For many richer nations, such as the United States, the accounts balance is negative because more goods are imported than they are exported. This is mostly due to the fact that it is cheaper to produce goods outside of developed countries, leading the economies of developed countries to become increasingly dependent on services and not goods. We believed that a positive accounts balance would means that more production was occurring in a country, so more factories working would increase carbon emission levels.

Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995). A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year.

Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population. Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 106–07).

While cities are sometimes considered to be disproportionate contributors to emissions, per-capita emissions tend to be lower for cities than the averages in their countries.

From land-use change

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use, 1970–2010.

Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks. Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure "net" emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 92–93).

There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions. Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 93). For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.

Greenhouse gas intensity

Greenhouse gas intensity in the year 2000, including land-use change.

Carbon intensity of GDP (using PPP) for different regions, 1982–2011.

Carbon intensity of GDP (using MER) for different regions, 1982–2011.

Greenhouse gas intensity is a ratio between greenhouse gas emissions and another metric, e.g., gross domestic product (GDP) or energy use. The terms "carbon intensity" and "emissions intensity" are also sometimes used. Emission intensities may be calculated using market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP) (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 96). Calculations based on MER show large differences in intensities between developed and developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences.

Cumulative and historical emissions

Cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between the years 1850–2005 grouped into low-income, middle-income, high-income, the EU-15, and the OECD countries.

 

Cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between the years 1850–2005 for individual countries.

 

Map of cumulative per capita anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ emissions by country. Cumulative emissions include land use change, and are measured between the years 1950 and 2000.

 

Regional trends in annual CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion between 1971 and 2009.

 

Regional trends in annual per capita CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion between 1971 and 2009.

Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming, and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change.

Top-5 historic CO₂ contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)

Region	Industrial CO2	Total CO2
OECD North America	33.2	29.7
OECD Europe	26.1	16.6
Former USSR	14.1	12.5
China	5.5	6.0
Eastern Europe	5.5	4.8

The table above to the left is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94). Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO₂ emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO₂ emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO₂ emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO₂ emissions. The estimate of total CO₂ emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94) calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countries and developing countries was estimated at more than 10 to 1. 

Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 93–94). The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by how carbon sinks are allocated between regions and the dynamics of the climate system.

Non-OECD countries accounted for 42% of cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between 1890 and 2007. Over this time period, the US accounted for 28% of emissions; the EU, 23%; Russia, 11%; China, 9%; other OECD countries, 5%; Japan, 4%; India, 3%; and the rest of the world, 18%.

Changes since a particular base year

Between 1970 and 2004, global growth in annual CO₂ emissions was driven by North America, Asia, and the Middle East. The sharp acceleration in CO₂ emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localized plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported. In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N
₂O by 0.25% y⁻¹.

Using different base years for measuring emissions has an effect on estimates of national contributions to global warming. This can be calculated by dividing a country's highest contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year, by that country's minimum contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year. Choosing between different base years of 1750, 1900, 1950, and 1990 has a significant effect for most countries. Within the G8 group of countries, it is most significant for the UK, France and Germany. These countries have a long history of CO₂ emissions.

Annual emissions

Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000 including land-use change.

 

Annual per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries. Due to China's fast economic development, its annual per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e., the developed countries excluding the US). Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia (which apart from the oil rich Persian Gulf states, now has the highest per capita emission rate in the world). On the other hand, annual per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the US are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries.

Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's annual emissions in 2008, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.

The greenhouse gas footprint refers to the emissions resulting from the creation of products or services. It is more comprehensive than the commonly used carbon footprint, which measures only carbon dioxide, one of many greenhouse gases.

2015 was the first year to see both total global economic growth and a reduction of carbon emissions.

Top emitter countries

Global carbon dioxide emissions by country.

 

The top 40 countries emitting all greenhouse gases, showing both that derived from all sources including land clearance and forestry and also the CO2 component excluding those sources. Per capita figures are included. "World Resources Institute data".. Note that Indonesia and Brazil show very much higher than on graphs simply showing fossil fuel use.

Annual

In 2009, the annual top ten emitting countries accounted for about two-thirds of the world's annual energy-related CO₂ emissions.

Top-10 annual energy-related CO₂ emitters for the year 2009

Country	% of global total annual emissions	Tonnes of GHG per capita
China	23.6	5.1
United States	17.9	16.9
India	5.5	1.4
Russia	5.3	10.8
Japan	3.8	8.6
Germany	2.6	9.2
Iran	1.8	7.3
Canada	1.8	15.4
South Korea	1.8	10.6
United Kingdom	1.6	7.5

Cumulative

Top-10 cumulative energy-related CO₂ emitters between 1850 and 2008

Country	% of world total	Metric tonnes CO2 per person
United States	28.5	1,132.7
China	9.36	85.4
Russia	7.95	677.2
Germany	6.78	998.9
United Kingdom	5.73	1,127.8
Japan	3.88	367
France	2.73	514.9
India	2.52	26.7
Canada	2.17	789.2
Ukraine	2.13	556.4

Embedded emissions

One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as "embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production, rather than consumption. For example, in the main international treaty on climate change (the UNFCCC), countries report on emissions produced within their borders, e.g., the emissions produced from burning fossil fuels. Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing country, rather than the exporting, country. 

Davis and Caldeira (2010) found that a substantial proportion of CO₂ emissions are traded internationally. The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO₂ per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US (22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6). Carbon Trust research revealed that approximately 25% of all CO₂ emissions from human activities 'flow' (i.e., are imported or exported) from one country to another. Major developed economies were found to be typically net importers of embodied carbon emissions—with UK consumption emissions 34% higher than production emissions, and Germany (29%), Japan (19%) and the US (13%) also significant net importers of embodied emissions.

Effect of policy

Governments have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation). Assessments of policy effectiveness have included work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Energy Agency, and United Nations Environment Programme. Policies implemented by governments have included national and regional targets to reduce emissions, promoting energy efficiency, and support for renewable energy such as Solar energy as an effective use of renewable energy because solar uses energy from the sun and does not release pollutants into the air. 

Countries and regions listed in Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (i.e., the OECD and former planned economies of the Soviet Union) are required to submit periodic assessments to the UNFCCC of actions they are taking to address climate change. Analysis by the UNFCCC (2011) suggested that policies and measures undertaken by Annex I Parties may have produced emission savings of 1.5 thousand Tg CO₂-eq in the year 2010, with most savings made in the energy sector. The projected emissions saving of 1.5 thousand Tg CO₂-eq is measured against a hypothetical "baseline" of Annex I emissions, i.e., projected Annex I emissions in the absence of policies and measures. The total projected Annex I saving of 1.5 thousand CO₂-eq does not include emissions savings in seven of the Annex I Parties.

Projections

A wide range of projections of future emissions have been produced. Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the scientific literature on greenhouse gas projections. Rogner et al. (2007) concluded that unless energy policies changed substantially, the world would continue to depend on fossil fuels until 2025–2030. Projections suggest that more than 80% of the world's energy will come from fossil fuels. This conclusion was based on "much evidence" and "high agreement" in the literature. Projected annual energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2030 were 40–110% higher than in 2000, with two-thirds of the increase originating in developing countries. Projected annual per capita emissions in developed country regions remained substantially lower (2.8–5.1 tonnes CO₂) than those in developed country regions (9.6–15.1 tonnes CO₂). Projections consistently showed increase in annual world emissions of "Kyoto" gases, measured in CO₂-equivalent) of 25–90% by 2030, compared to 2000.

Relative CO₂ emission from various fuels

One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces 2.32 kg (about 1300 liters or 1.3 cubic meters) of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. One US gallon produces 19.4 lb (1,291.5 gallons or 172.65 cubic feet)

Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels

Fuel name	CO2 emitted (lbs/106 Btu)	CO2 emitted (g/MJ)	CO2 emitted (g/kWh)
Natural gas	117	50.30	181.08
Liquefied petroleum gas	139	59.76	215.14
Propane	139	59.76	215.14
Aviation gasoline	153	65.78	236.81
Automobile gasoline	156	67.07	241.45
Kerosene	159	68.36	246.10
Fuel oil	161	69.22	249.19
Tires/tire derived fuel	189	81.26	292.54
Wood and wood waste	195	83.83	301.79
Coal (bituminous)	205	88.13	317.27
Coal (sub-bituminous)	213	91.57	329.65
Coal (lignite)	215	92.43	332.75
Petroleum coke	225	96.73	348.23
Tar-sand Bitumen
Coal (anthracite)	227	97.59	351.32

Life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of energy sources

A literature review of numerous energy sources CO₂ emissions by the IPCC in 2011, found that, the CO₂ emission value that fell within the 50th percentile of all total life cycle emissions studies conducted was as follows.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by electricity source.

Technology	Description	50th percentile (g CO2/kWhe)
Hydroelectric	reservoir	4
Ocean Energy	wave and tidal	8
Wind	onshore	12
Nuclear	various generation II reactor types	16
Biomass	various	18
Solar thermal	parabolic trough	22
Geothermal	hot dry rock	45
Solar PV	Polycrystalline silicon	46
Natural gas	various combined cycle turbines without scrubbing	469
Coal	various generator types without scrubbing	1001

Removal from the atmosphere ("sinks")

Natural processes

Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of:

• a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere).
• a chemical reaction within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally occurring hydroxyl radical, OH· and degraded to CO₂ and water vapor (CO₂ from the oxidation of methane is not included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
• a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans.
• a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the case for CO₂, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification).
• a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl· and F· as free radicals in the stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction in the atmosphere).

Negative emissions

A number of technologies remove greenhouse gases emissions from the atmosphere. Most widely analysed are those that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide air capture, or to the soil as in the case with biochar. The IPCC has pointed out that many long-term climate scenario models require large-scale manmade negative emissions to avoid serious climate change.

History of scientific research

In the late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N₂ and O₂ do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation"), while water (both as true vapor and condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds) and CO₂ and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. In the early 20th century researchers realized that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere made Earth's overall temperature higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and for human health.

Petroleum politics

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Argentine president Néstor Kirchner and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez discuss the Gran Gasoducto del Sur, an energy and trade integration project for South America. They met on November 21, 2005 in Venezuela.

 

Petroleum politics have been an increasingly important aspect of diplomacy since the rise of the petroleum industry in the Middle East in the early 20th century. As competition continues for a vital resource, the strategic calculations of major and minor countries alike place prominent emphasis on the pumping, refining, transport, sale and use of petroleum products. However, international climate policy and unconventional oil and gas developments may change the balance of power between petroleum exporting and importing countries with major negative implications expected for the exporting states.

Quota agreements

The Achnacarry Agreement or "As-Is Agreement" was an early attempt to restrict petroleum production, signed in Scotland on 17 September 1928. The discovery of the East Texas Oil Field in the 1930s led to a boom in production that caused prices to fall, leading the Railroad Commission of Texas to control production. The Commission retained de facto control of the market until the rise of OPEC in the 1970s.

The Anglo-American Petroleum Agreement of 1944 tried to extend these restrictions internationally but was opposed by the industry in the United States and so Franklin Roosevelt withdrew from the deal. 

Venezuela was the first country to move towards the establishment of OPEC by approaching Iran, Gabon, Libya, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in 1949, but OPEC was not set up until 1960, when the United States forced import quotas on Venezuelan and Persian Gulf oil in order to support the Canadian and Mexican oil industries. OPEC first wielded its power with the 1973 oil embargo against the United States and Western Europe.

Oil and international conflict

The term "petro-aggression" has been used to describe the tendency of oil-rich states to instigate international conflicts. There are many examples including: Iraq’s invasion of Iran and Kuwait; Libya’s repeated incursions into Chad in the 1970s and 1980s; Iran’s long-standing suspicion of Western powers. Some scholars have also suggested that oil-rich states are frequently the targets of "resource wars."

Peak oil

In 1956, a Shell geophysicist named M. King Hubbert accurately predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970.

In June 2006, former U.S. president Bill Clinton said in a speech:

...We may be at a point of peak oil production. You may see $100 a barrel oil in the next two or three years, but what still is driving this globalization is the idea that is you cannot possibly get rich, stay rich and get richer if you don’t release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That was true in the industrial era; it is simply factually not true. What is true is that the old energy economy is well organized, financed and connected politically.

In a 1999 speech, Dick Cheney, the US Vice President and former CEO of Halliburton (one of the world's largest energy services corporations), said:

By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from?....While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow.

Cheney went on to argue that the oil industry should become more active in politics:

Oil is the only large industry whose leverage has not been all that effective in the political arena. Textiles, electronics, agriculture all seem often to be more influential. Our constituency is not only oilmen from Louisiana and Texas, but software writers in Massachusetts and specialty steel producers in Pennsylvania. I am struck that this industry is so strong technically and financially yet not as politically successful or influential as are often smaller industries. We need to earn credibility to have our views heard.

Pipeline diplomacy in the Caspian Sea area

The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline was built to transport crude oil and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline was built to transport natural gas from the western side (Azerbaijani sector) of the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea bypassing Russian pipelines and thus Russian control. Following the construction of the pipelines, the United States and the European Union proposed extending them by means of the proposed Trans-Caspian Oil Pipeline and the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline under the Caspian Sea to oil and gas fields on the eastern side (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan sectors) of the Caspian Sea. In 2007, Russia signed agreements with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to connect their oil and gas fields to the Russian pipeline system effectively killing the undersea route.

China has completed the Kazakhstan–China oil pipeline from the Kazakhstan oil fields to the Chinese Alashankou-Dushanzi Crude Oil Pipeline in China. China is also working on the Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline from the Kazakhstan gas fields to the Chinese West-East Gas Pipeline in China.

Politics of oil nationalization

Several countries have nationalised foreign-run oil businesses, often failing to compensate investors. Enrique Mosconi, the director of the Argentine state owned oil company Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF, which was the first state owned oil company in the world, preceding the French Compagnie française des pétroles (CFP, French Company of Petroleums), created in 1924 by the conservative Raymond Poincaré), advocated oil nationalization in the late 1920s among Latin American countries. The latter was achieved in Mexico during Lázaro Cárdenas's rule, with the Expropiación petrolera.

Similarly Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976.

Politics of alternative fuels

Vinod Khosla (a well known investor in IT firms and alternative energy) has argued that the political interests of environmental advocates, agricultural businesses, energy security advocates (such as ex-CIA director James Woolsey) and automakers, are all aligned for the increased production of ethanol. He pointed out that from 2003 to 2006, ethanol fuel in Brazil replaced 40% of its gasoline consumption while flex fuel vehicles went from 3% of car sales to 70%. Brazilian ethanol, which is produced using sugarcane, reduces greenhouse gases by 60-80% (20% for corn-produced ethanol). Khosla also said that ethanol was about 10% cheaper per given distance. There are currently ethanol subsidies in the United States but they are all blender's credits, meaning the oil refineries receive the subsidies rather than the farmers. There are indirect subsidies due to subsidising farmers to produce corn. Vinod says after one of his presentations in Davos, a senior Saudi oil official came up to him and threatened: "If biofuels start to take off, we will drop the price of oil." Since then, Vinod has come up with a new recommendation that oil should be taxed if it drops below $40.00/barrel in order to counter price manipulation.

Ex-CIA director James Woolsey and U.S. Senator Richard Lugar are also vocal proponents of ethanol.

In 2005, Sweden announced plans to end its dependence on fossil fuels by the year 2020.

Geopolitics of oil money

Multibillion-dollar inflows and outflows of petroleum money have worldwide macroeconomic consequences, and major oil exporters can gain substantial influence from their petrodollar recycling activities.

Key oil producing countries

Canada

As development in the Alberta oil sands, deep sea drilling in the North Atlantic and the prospects of arctic oil continue to grow Canada increasingly grows as a global oil exporter. There are currently three major pipelines under proposal that would ship oil to the pacific, atlantic and gulf ports. These projects have stirred internal controversy, receiving fierce opposition from First Nations groups and environmentalists.

Iran

Discovery of oil in 1908 at Masjed Soleiman in Iran initiated the quest for oil in the Middle East. The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) was founded in 1909. In 1951, Iran nationalized its oil fields initiating the Abadan Crisis. The United States of America and Great Britain thus punished Iran by arranging coup against its democratically elected prime minister, Mosaddeq, and brought the former Shah's son, a dictator, to power. In 1953 the US and GB arranged the arrest of the Prime Minister Mosaddeq. Iran exports oil to China and Russia.

Iraq

Iraq holds the world's second-largest proven oil reserves, with increasing exploration expected to enlarge them beyond 200 billion barrels (3.2×10¹⁰ m³) of "high-grade crude, extraordinarily cheap to produce." Organizations such as the Global Policy Forum (GPF) have asserted that Iraq's oil is "the central feature of the political landscape" there, and that as a result of the 2003 invasion,"'friendly' companies expect to gain most of the lucrative oil deals that will be worth hundreds of billions of dollars in profits in the coming decades." According to GPF, U.S. influence over the 2005 Constitution of Iraq has made sure it "contains language that guarantees a major role for foreign companies."

Mexico

Mexico has a largely oil-based economy, being the seventh largest producer of petroleum. Though Mexico has gradually explored different types of electricity, oil is still crucial, recently generating 10% of revenue.

Before 1938, all petroleum companies in Mexico were foreign based, often from the United States or Europe. The petroleum industry was nationalized in the late 1930s to early 1940s by then-president Lázaro Cárdenas, creating PEMEX. Mexico's oil industry still remains heavily nationalized. Though oil production has fallen in recent years, Mexico still remains in seventh place.

Nigeria

Petroleum in Nigeria was discovered in 1955 at Oloibiri in the Niger Delta.

High oil prices were the driving force behind Nigeria’s economic growth in 2005. The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew approximately 4.5 percent in 2005 and was expected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2006. The Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector, which accounts for 95 percent of government revenues. Even with the substantial oil wealth, Nigeria ranks as one of the poorest countries in the world, with a $1,000 per capita income and more than 70 percent of the population living in poverty. In October 2005, the 15-member Paris Club announced that it would cancel 60 percent of the debt owed by Nigeria. However, Nigeria must still pay $12.4 billion in arrears among meeting other conditions. In March 2006, phase two of the Paris Club agreement will include an additional 34 percent debt cancellation, while Nigeria will be responsible for paying back any remaining eligible debts to the lending nations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently praised the Nigerian government for adopting tighter fiscal policies, will be allowed to monitor Nigeria without having to disburse loans to the country.

Russia

High-priced oil allowed the Soviet Union to subsidize the struggling economies of the Soviet bloc for a time, and the loss of petrodollar income during the 1980s oil glut contributed to the bloc's collapse in 1989.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is an oil-based economy with strong government controls over major economic activities. It possesses both the world's largest known oil reserves, which are 25% of the world's proven reserves, and produces the largest amount of the world's oil. As of 2005, Ghawar field accounts for about half of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity.

Saudi Arabia ranks as the largest exporter of petroleum, and plays a leading role in OPEC, its decisions to raise or cut production almost immediately impact world oil prices. It is perhaps the best example of a contemporary energy superpower, in terms of having power and influence on the global stage (due to its energy reserves and production of not just oil, but natural gas as well). Saudi Arabia is often referred to as the world's only "oil superpower".

United States

In 1998, about 40% of the energy consumed by the United States came from oil. The United States is responsible for 25% of the world's oil consumption, while having only 3% of the world's proven oil reserves and less than 5% of the world's population. In January 1980, President Jimmy Carter explicitly declared: "An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States."

Venezuela

According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela has 77.2 billion barrels (1.227×10¹⁰ m³) of proven conventional oil reserves, the largest of any country in the Western Hemisphere. In addition it has non-conventional oil deposits similar in size to Canada's - at 1,200 billion barrels (1.9×10¹¹ m³) approximately equal to the world's reserves of conventional oil. About 267 billion barrels (4.24×10¹⁰ m³) of this may be producible at current prices using current technology. Venezuela's Orinoco tar sands are less viscous than Canada's Athabasca oil sands – meaning they can be produced by more conventional means, but are buried deeper – meaning they cannot be extracted by surface mining. In an attempt to have these extra heavy oil reserves recognized by the international community, Venezuela has moved to add them to its conventional reserves to give nearly 350 billion barrels (5.6×10¹⁰ m³) of total oil reserves. This would give it the largest oil reserves in the world, even ahead of Saudi Arabia. 

Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1975–1976, creating Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), the country's state-run oil and natural gas company. Along with being Venezuela's largest employer, PdVSA accounts for about one-third of the country’s GDP, 50 percent of the government’s revenue and 80 percent of Venezuela’s exports earnings. In recent years, under the influence of President Chavez, the Venezuelan government has reduced PdVSA’s previous autonomy and amended the rules regulating the country’s hydrocarbons sector.

In the 1990s, Venezuela opened its upstream oil sector to private investment. This collection of policies, called apertura, facilitated the creation of 32 operating service agreements (OSA) with 22 separate foreign oil companies, including international oil majors like Chevron, BP, Total, and Repsol-YPF. Hugo Chávez, the President of Venezuela sharply diverged from previous administrations' economic policies. PDVSA is now used as a cash-cow and as an employer-of-last-resort; foreign oil businesses were nationalised and the government refused to pay compensation.

Estimates of Venezuelan oil production vary. Venezuela claims its oil production is over 3 million barrels per day (480,000 m³/d), but oil industry analysts and the U.S. Energy Information Administration believe it to be much lower. In addition to other reporting irregularities, much of its production is extra-heavy oil, which may or may not be included with conventional oil in the various production estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimated Venezuela's oil production in December 2006 was only 2.5 million barrels per day (400,000 m³/d), a 24% decline from its peak of 3.3 million in 1997.

Recently, Venezuela has pushed the creation of regional oil initiatives for the Caribbean (Petrocaribe), the Andean region (Petroandino), and South America (Petrosur), and Latin America (Petroamerica). The initiatives include assistance for oil developments, investments in refining capacity, and preferential oil pricing. The most developed of these three is the Petrocaribe initiative, with 13 nations signing a preliminary agreement in 2005. Under Petrocaribe, Venezuela will offer crude oil and petroleum products to Caribbean nations under preferential terms and prices, with Jamaica as the first nation to sign on in August 2005.