Search This Blog

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Abuse of Statistics in Obscuring ~2000-2013 Warming Plateau

David J Strumfels Again, note the plateau over the last 10-12 years. For that period we are told and shown that this decade+ is the hottest period for centuries, and is the result of over a centuries' worth of warming. Almost any peak in it, like 2013, 2010, or 2005 will be among the hottest years over those centuries, but just due to statistics. Clearly, from ~2000 onwards however, the warming has plateaued for some reason, possibly a ~30 year cycle in global temperature (this can also be seen 1880-1910 and 1940-1975 cooling periods, interspersed among stronger warming trends). It is nowhere near a straight warming line throughout the last century and into this, although AGWs and others often try to fit lines. It has been mathematical sign wave combined with a straight line describes the warming much better -- and even predicted the (albeit, perhaps temporary) hiatus in worming in the 21'st century; all supportive of this particular model (also, the straight line, starting at 1975-80 would predict a world today ~0.2C warmer, while the sine-modified line is right on target).
 
Wriiten in response to:
Asteroid Initiatives @AsteroidEnergy 12m
RT @EarthVitalSigns 2013 global surface temp tied for 7th warmest year on record http://1.usa.gov/Mg6Pe7 ‪#‎NASA‬ pic.twitter.com/aygxwowGA0
David J Strumfels I've explained the fallacy behind these statements enough that you should recognize them for the misleading propaganda they are.  If not, look above.

Major themes

  Photo taken during a Citizen Science Bioblitz The area integrates a series of fields and themes such as: Citizen science Consumer educat...