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Friday, December 27, 2013

Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years as Shown by the IPCC






Global Tempratures and Solar Activity.  As for solar activity/climate warming, the chart above shows the remarkable correlation over many centuries (sorry it is a bit blurred).  The repeated rises and falls demonstrate that this is not mere correlation but that there is a real cause and effect going on.  Deviations from the pattern only appear ~1950 and after.  This could be an anthropogenic effect, as the IPCC would claim.



The top two charts show the IPCC's vision of past (~1000 years) global temperatures.  While largely based on testimonial, historical, and archeological evidence (e.g., the Viking settlement ~1000AD on west Greenland during the Medieval warm period, and its collapse !1400AD when temperatures dropped and Greenland became to cold and ice covered -- see Jared Diamond) there is little reason to doubt the left side record.  On the right we see Mann et al "Hockey Stick" chart which thoroughly eliminates the past aberrations of the left chart, based on selected temperature "proxies" (e.g., tree rings, ice cores, etc.).

As for solar activity/climate warming, the chart above shows the remarkable correlation over many centuries (sorry it is a bit blurred).  The repeated rises and falls demonstrate that this is not mere correlation but that there is a real cause and effect going on.

Astonishingly, Mann's revolutionary chart was accepted quite quickly, with little argument, by the IPCC in 2001.  Current models still follow Mann's original data, but are more variable, somewhat approaching the pre 2000 model.  A typical example is shown below, with the red line showing the pre-2000 model, and the black and blue lines representing amended Mann models.  Again, these models only seem accurate to around 1950 or so.

Representation of a Lie group

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representation_of_a_Lie_group...