A meta-analysis is a statistical analysis that combines the results of multiple scientific studies.
Meta-analysis can be performed when there are multiple scientific
studies addressing the same question, with each individual study
reporting measurements that are expected to have some degree of error.
The aim then is to use approaches from statistics
to derive a pooled estimate closest to the unknown common truth based
on how this error is perceived. Existing methods for meta-analysis yield
a weighted average
from the results of the individual studies, and what differs is the
manner in which these weights are allocated and also the manner in which
the uncertainty is computed around the point estimate thus generated.
In addition to providing an estimate of the unknown common truth,
meta-analysis has the capacity to contrast results from different
studies and identify patterns among study results, sources of
disagreement among those results, or other interesting relationships
that may come to light in the context of multiple studies.
A key benefit of this approach is the aggregation of information leading to a higher statistical power
and more robust point estimate than is possible from the measure
derived from any individual study. However, in performing a
meta-analysis, an investigator must make choices which can affect the
results, including deciding how to search for studies, selecting studies
based on a set of objective criteria, dealing with incomplete data,
analyzing the data, and accounting for or choosing not to account for publication bias.
Meta-analyses are often, but not always, important components of a systematic review
procedure. For instance, a meta-analysis may be conducted on several
clinical trials of a medical treatment, in an effort to obtain a better
understanding of how well the treatment works. Here it is convenient to
follow the terminology used by the Cochrane Collaboration, and use "meta-analysis" to refer to statistical methods of combining evidence, leaving other aspects of 'research synthesis'
or 'evidence synthesis', such as combining information from qualitative
studies, for the more general context of systematic reviews. A
meta-analysis is a secondary source.
History
The historical roots of meta-analysis can be traced back to 17th century studies of astronomy, while a paper published in 1904 by the statistician Karl Pearson in the British Medical Journal
which collated data from several studies of typhoid inoculation is seen
as the first time a meta-analytic approach was used to aggregate the
outcomes of multiple clinical studies.
The first meta-analysis of all conceptually identical experiments
concerning a particular research issue, and conducted by independent
researchers, has been identified as the 1940 book-length publication Extrasensory Perception After Sixty Years, authored by Duke University psychologists J. G. Pratt, J. B. Rhine, and associates. This encompassed a review of 145 reports on ESP
experiments published from 1882 to 1939, and included an estimate of
the influence of unpublished papers on the overall effect (the file-drawer problem). Although meta-analysis is widely used in epidemiology and evidence-based medicine
today, a meta-analysis of a medical treatment was not published until
1955. In the 1970s, more sophisticated analytical techniques were
introduced in educational research, starting with the work of Gene V. Glass, Frank L. Schmidt and John E. Hunter.
The term "meta-analysis" was coined in 1976 by the statistician Gene V. Glass, who stated "my
major interest currently is in what we have come to call ...the
meta-analysis of research. The term is a bit grand, but it is precise
and apt ... Meta-analysis refers to the analysis of analyses".
Although this led to him being widely recognized as the modern founder
of the method, the methodology behind what he termed "meta-analysis"
predates his work by several decades. The statistical theory surrounding meta-analysis was greatly advanced by the work of Nambury S. Raju, Larry V. Hedges, Harris Cooper, Ingram Olkin, John E. Hunter, Jacob Cohen, Thomas C. Chalmers, Robert Rosenthal, Frank L. Schmidt, and Douglas G. Bonett.
Advantages
Conceptually,
a meta-analysis uses a statistical approach to combine the results from
multiple studies in an effort to increase power (over individual
studies), improve estimates of the size of the effect and/or to resolve
uncertainty when reports disagree. A meta-analysis is a statistical
overview of the results from one or more systematic reviews. Basically,
it produces a weighted average of the included study results and this
approach has several advantages:
- Results can be generalized to a larger population
- The precision and accuracy of estimates can be improved as more data is used. This, in turn, may increase the statistical power to detect an effect
- Inconsistency of results across studies can be quantified and analyzed. For instance, inconsistency may arise from sampling error, or study results (partially) influenced by differences between study protocols
- Hypothesis testing can be applied on summary estimates
- Moderators can be included to explain variation between studies
- The presence of publication bias can be investigated
Steps in a meta-analysis
A
meta-analysis is usually preceded by a systematic review, as this
allows identification and critical appraisal of all the relevant
evidence (thereby limiting the risk of bias in summary estimates). The
general steps are then as follows:
- Formulation of the research question, e.g. using the PICO model (Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome).
- Search of literature
- Selection of studies ('incorporation criteria')
- Based on quality criteria, e.g. the requirement of randomization and blinding in a clinical trial
- Selection of specific studies on a well-specified subject, e.g. the treatment of breast cancer.
- Decide whether unpublished studies are included to avoid publication bias (file drawer problem)
- Decide which dependent variables or summary measures are allowed.
For instance, when considering a meta-analysis of published (aggregate)
data:
- Differences (discrete data)
- Means (continuous data)
- Hedges' g
is a popular summary measure for continuous data that is standardized
in order to eliminate scale differences, but it incorporates an index of
variation between groups:
- in which is the treatment mean, is the control mean, the pooled variance.
- Selection of a meta-analysis model, e.g. fixed effect or random effects meta-analysis.
- Examine sources of between-study heterogeneity, e.g. using subgroup analysis or meta-regression.
Formal guidance for the conduct and reporting of meta-analyses is provided by the Cochrane Handbook.
For reporting guidelines, see the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.[14]
Methods and assumptions
Approaches
In general, two types of evidence can be distinguished when performing a meta-analysis: individual participant data (IPD), and aggregate data (AD). The aggregate data can be direct or indirect.
AD is more commonly available (e.g. from the literature) and
typically represents summary estimates such as odds ratios or relative
risks. This can be directly synthesized across conceptually similar
studies using several approaches (see below). On the other hand,
indirect aggregate data measures the effect of two treatments that were
each compared against a similar control group in a meta-analysis. For
example, if treatment A and treatment B were directly compared vs
placebo in separate meta-analyses, we can use these two pooled results
to get an estimate of the effects of A vs B in an indirect comparison as
effect A vs Placebo minus effect B vs Placebo.
IPD evidence represents raw data as collected by the study
centers. This distinction has raised the need for different
meta-analytic methods when evidence synthesis is desired, and has led to
the development of one-stage and two-stage methods.
In one-stage methods the IPD from all studies are modeled
simultaneously whilst accounting for the clustering of participants
within studies. Two-stage methods first compute summary statistics for
AD from each study and then calculate overall statistics as a weighted
average of the study statistics. By reducing IPD to AD, two-stage
methods can also be applied when IPD is available; this makes them an
appealing choice when performing a meta-analysis. Although it is
conventionally believed that one-stage and two-stage methods yield
similar results, recent studies have shown that they may occasionally
lead to different conclusions.
Statistical models for aggregate data
Direct evidence: Models incorporating study effects only
Fixed effects model
The
fixed effect model provides a weighted average of a series of study
estimates. The inverse of the estimates' variance is commonly used as
study weight, so that larger studies tend to contribute more than
smaller studies to the weighted average. Consequently, when studies
within a meta-analysis are dominated by a very large study, the findings
from smaller studies are practically ignored.
Most importantly, the fixed effects model assumes that all included
studies investigate the same population, use the same variable and
outcome definitions, etc. This assumption is typically unrealistic as
research is often prone to several sources of heterogeneity; e.g.
treatment effects may differ according to locale, dosage levels, study
conditions, ...
Random effects model
A
common model used to synthesize heterogeneous research is the random
effects model of meta-analysis. This is simply the weighted average of
the effect sizes of a group of studies. The weight that is applied in
this process of weighted averaging with a random effects meta-analysis
is achieved in two steps:
- Step 1: Inverse variance weighting
- Step 2: Un-weighting of this inverse variance weighting by applying a random effects variance component (REVC) that is simply derived from the extent of variability of the effect sizes of the underlying studies.
This means that the greater this variability in effect sizes
(otherwise known as heterogeneity), the greater the un-weighting and
this can reach a point when the random effects meta-analysis result
becomes simply the un-weighted average effect size across the studies.
At the other extreme, when all effect sizes are similar (or variability
does not exceed sampling error), no REVC is applied and the random
effects meta-analysis defaults to simply a fixed effect meta-analysis
(only inverse variance weighting).
The extent of this reversal is solely dependent on two factors:
- Heterogeneity of precision
- Heterogeneity of effect size
Since neither of these factors automatically indicates a faulty
larger study or more reliable smaller studies, the re-distribution of
weights under this model will not bear a relationship to what these
studies actually might offer. Indeed, it has been demonstrated that
redistribution of weights is simply in one direction from larger to
smaller studies as heterogeneity increases until eventually all studies
have equal weight and no more redistribution is possible.
Another issue with the random effects model is that the most commonly
used confidence intervals generally do not retain their coverage
probability above the specified nominal level and thus substantially
underestimate the statistical error and are potentially
overconfident in their conclusions. Several fixes have been suggested but the debate continues on.
A further concern is that the average treatment effect can sometimes be
even less conservative compared to the fixed effect model
and therefore misleading in practice. One interpretational fix that has
been suggested is to create a prediction interval around the random
effects estimate to portray the range of possible effects in practice.
However, an assumption behind the calculation of such a prediction
interval is that trials are considered more or less homogeneous entities
and that included patient populations and comparator treatments should
be considered exchangeable and this is usually unattainable in practice.
The most widely used method to estimate between studies variance (REVC) is the DerSimonian-Laird (DL) approach.
Several advanced iterative (and computationally expensive) techniques
for computing the between studies variance exist (such as maximum
likelihood, profile likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood
methods) and random effects models using these methods can be run in
Stata with the metaan command.
The metaan command must be distinguished from the classic metan (single
"a") command in Stata that uses the DL estimator. These advanced
methods have also been implemented in a free and easy to use Microsoft
Excel add-on, MetaEasy.
However, a comparison between these advanced methods and the DL method
of computing the between studies variance demonstrated that there is
little to gain and DL is quite adequate in most scenarios.
However, most meta-analyses include between 2 and 4 studies and
such a sample is more often than not inadequate to accurately estimate
heterogeneity. Thus it appears that in small meta-analyses, an incorrect
zero between study variance estimate is obtained, leading to a false
homogeneity assumption. Overall, it appears that heterogeneity is being
consistently underestimated in meta-analyses and sensitivity analyses in
which high heterogeneity levels are assumed could be informative.
These random effects models and software packages mentioned above
relate to study-aggregate meta-analyses and researchers wishing to
conduct individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses need to consider
mixed-effects modelling approaches.
IVhet model
Doi
& Barendregt working in collaboration with Khan, Thalib and
Williams (from the University of Queensland, University of Southern
Queensland and Kuwait University), have created an inverse variance
quasi likelihood based alternative (IVhet) to the random effects (RE)
model for which details are available online. This was incorporated into MetaXL version 2.0,
a free Microsoft excel add-in for meta-analysis produced by Epigear
International Pty Ltd, and made available on 5 April 2014. The authors
state that a clear advantage of this model is that it resolves the two
main problems of the random effects model. The first advantage of the
IVhet model is that coverage remains at the nominal (usually 95%) level
for the confidence interval unlike the random effects model which drops
in coverage with increasing heterogeneity.
The second advantage is that the IVhet model maintains the inverse
variance weights of individual studies, unlike the RE model which gives
small studies more weight (and therefore larger studies less) with
increasing heterogeneity. When heterogeneity becomes large, the
individual study weights under the RE model become equal and thus the RE
model returns an arithmetic mean rather than a weighted average. This
side-effect of the RE model does not occur with the IVhet model which
thus differs from the RE model estimate in two perspectives:
Pooled estimates will favor larger trials (as opposed to penalizing
larger trials in the RE model) and will have a confidence interval that
remains within the nominal coverage under uncertainty (heterogeneity).
Doi & Barendregt suggest that while the RE model provides an
alternative method of pooling the study data, their simulation results
demonstrate that using a more specified probability model with
untenable assumptions, as with the RE model, does not necessarily
provide better results. The latter study also reports that the IVhet
model resolves the problems related to underestimation of the
statistical error, poor coverage of the confidence interval and
increased MSE seen with the random effects model and the authors
conclude that researchers should henceforth abandon use of the random
effects model in meta-analysis. While their data is compelling, the
ramifications (in terms of the magnitude of spuriously positive results
within the Cochrane database) are huge and thus accepting this
conclusion requires careful independent confirmation. The availability
of a free software (MetaXL) that runs the IVhet model (and all other models for comparison) facilitates this for the research community.
Direct evidence: Models incorporating additional information
Quality effects model
Doi and Thalib originally introduced the quality effects model. They
introduced a new approach to adjustment for inter-study variability by
incorporating the contribution of variance due to a relevant component
(quality) in addition to the contribution of variance due to random
error that is used in any fixed effects meta-analysis model to generate
weights for each study. The strength of the quality effects
meta-analysis is that it allows available methodological evidence to be
used over subjective random effects, and thereby helps to close the
damaging gap which has opened up between methodology and statistics in
clinical research. To do this a synthetic bias variance is computed
based on quality information to adjust inverse variance weights and the
quality adjusted weight of the ith study is introduced. These adjusted weights are then used in meta-analysis. In other words, if study i
is of good quality and other studies are of poor quality, a proportion
of their quality adjusted weights is mathematically redistributed to
study i giving it more weight towards the overall effect size. As
studies become increasingly similar in terms of quality,
re-distribution becomes progressively less and ceases when all studies
are of equal quality (in the case of equal quality, the quality effects
model defaults to the IVhet model – see previous section). A recent
evaluation of the quality effects model (with some updates) demonstrates
that despite the subjectivity of quality assessment, the performance
(MSE and true variance under simulation) is superior to that achievable
with the random effects model.
This model thus replaces the untenable interpretations that abound in
the literature and a software is available to explore this method
further.
Indirect evidence: Network meta-analysis methods
Indirect comparison meta-analysis methods (also called network
meta-analyses, in particular when multiple treatments are assessed
simultaneously) generally use two main methodologies. First, is the
Bucher method
which is a single or repeated comparison of a closed loop of
three-treatments such that one of them is common to the two studies and
forms the node where the loop begins and ends. Therefore, multiple
two-by-two comparisons (3-treatment loops) are needed to compare
multiple treatments. This methodology requires that trials with more
than two arms have two arms only selected as independent pair-wise
comparisons are required. The alternative methodology uses complex statistical modelling
to include the multiple arm trials and comparisons simultaneously
between all competing treatments. These have been executed using
Bayesian methods, mixed linear models and meta-regression approaches.
Bayesian framework
Specifying a Bayesian network meta-analysis model involves writing a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model for general-purpose Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) software such as WinBUGS.
In addition, prior distributions have to be specified for a number of
the parameters, and the data have to be supplied in a specific format.
Together, the DAG, priors, and data form a Bayesian hierarchical model.
To complicate matters further, because of the nature of MCMC
estimation, overdispersed starting values have to be chosen for a number
of independent chains so that convergence can be assessed.
Currently, there is no software that automatically generates such
models, although there are some tools to aid in the process. The
complexity of the Bayesian approach has limited usage of this
methodology. Methodology for automation of this method has been
suggested
but requires that arm-level outcome data are available, and this is
usually unavailable. Great claims are sometimes made for the inherent
ability of the Bayesian framework to handle network meta-analysis and
its greater flexibility. However, this choice of implementation of
framework for inference, Bayesian or frequentist, may be less important
than other choices regarding the modeling of effects (see discussion on models above).
Frequentist multivariate framework
On
the other hand, the frequentist multivariate methods involve
approximations and assumptions that are not stated explicitly or
verified when the methods are applied (see discussion on meta-analysis
models above). For example, the mvmeta package for Stata enables network
meta-analysis in a frequentist framework.
However, if there is no common comparator in the network, then this has
to be handled by augmenting the dataset with fictional arms with high
variance, which is not very objective and requires a decision as to what
constitutes a sufficiently high variance.
The other issue is use of the random effects model in both this
frequentist framework and the Bayesian framework. Senn advises analysts
to be cautious about interpreting the 'random effects' analysis since
only one random effect is allowed for but one could envisage many.
Senn goes on to say that it is rather naıve, even in the case where
only two treatments are being compared to assume that random-effects
analysis accounts for all
uncertainty about the way effects can vary from trial to trial. Newer
models of meta-analysis such as those discussed above would certainly
help alleviate this situation and have been implemented in the next
framework.
Generalized pairwise modelling framework
An
approach that has been tried since the late 1990s is the implementation
of the multiple three-treatment closed-loop analysis. This has not been
popular because the process rapidly becomes overwhelming as network
complexity increases. Development in this area was then abandoned in
favor of the Bayesian and multivariate frequentist methods which emerged
as alternatives. Very recently, automation of the three-treatment
closed loop method has been developed for complex networks by some
researchers
as a way to make this methodology available to the mainstream research
community. This proposal does restrict each trial to two interventions,
but also introduces a workaround for multiple arm trials: a different
fixed control node can be selected in different runs. It also utilizes
robust meta-analysis methods so that many of the problems highlighted
above are avoided. Further research around this framework is required to
determine if this is indeed superior to the Bayesian or multivariate
frequentist frameworks. Researchers willing to try this out have access
to this framework through a free software.
Tailored meta-analysis
Another
form of additional information comes from the intended setting. If the
target setting for applying the meta-analysis results is known then it
may be possible to use data from the setting to tailor the results thus
producing a ‘tailored meta-analysis’.
This has been used in test accuracy meta-analyses, where empirical
knowledge of the test positive rate and the prevalence have been used to
derive a region in Receiver Operating Characteristic
(ROC) space known as an ‘applicable region’. Studies are then selected
for the target setting based on comparison with this region and
aggregated to produce a summary estimate which is tailored to the target
setting.
Validation of meta-analysis results
The meta-analysis estimate represents a weighted average across studies and when there is heterogeneity
this may result in the summary estimate not being representative of
individual studies. Qualitative appraisal of the primary studies using
established tools can uncover potential biases,
but does not quantify the aggregate effect of these biases on the
summary estimate. Although the meta-analysis result could be compared
with an independent prospective primary study, such external validation
is often impractical. This has led to the development of methods that
exploit a form of leave-one-out cross validation, sometimes referred to as internal-external cross validation (IOCV).
Here each of the k included studies in turn is omitted and compared
with the summary estimate derived from aggregating the remaining k- 1
studies. A general validation statistic, Vn based on IOCV has been developed to measure the statistical validity of meta-analysis results.
For test accuracy and prediction, particularly when there are
multivariate effects, other approaches which seek to estimate the
prediction error have also been proposed.
Challenges
A meta-analysis of several small studies does not always predict the results of a single large study.
Some have argued that a weakness of the method is that sources of bias
are not controlled by the method: a good meta-analysis cannot correct
for poor design or bias in the original studies.
This would mean that only methodologically sound studies should be
included in a meta-analysis, a practice called 'best evidence
synthesis'.
Other meta-analysts would include weaker studies, and add a study-level
predictor variable that reflects the methodological quality of the
studies to examine the effect of study quality on the effect size.
However, others have argued that a better approach is to preserve
information about the variance in the study sample, casting as wide a
net as possible, and that methodological selection criteria introduce
unwanted subjectivity, defeating the purpose of the approach.
Publication bias: the file drawer problem
Another potential pitfall is the reliance on the available body of
published studies, which may create exaggerated outcomes due to publication bias, as studies which show negative results or insignificant
results are less likely to be published. For example, pharmaceutical
companies have been known to hide negative studies and researchers may
have overlooked unpublished studies such as dissertation studies or
conference abstracts that did not reach publication. This is not easily
solved, as one cannot know how many studies have gone unreported.
This file drawer problem
(characterized by negative or non-significant results being tucked away
in a cabinet), can result in a biased distribution of effect sizes thus
creating a serious base rate fallacy,
in which the significance of the published studies is overestimated, as
other studies were either not submitted for publication or were
rejected. This should be seriously considered when interpreting the
outcomes of a meta-analysis.
The distribution of effect sizes can be visualized with a funnel plot
which (in its most common version) is a scatter plot of standard error
versus the effect size. It makes use of the fact that the smaller
studies (thus larger standard errors) have more scatter of the magnitude
of effect (being less precise) while the larger studies have less
scatter and form the tip of the funnel. If many negative studies were
not published, the remaining positive studies give rise to a funnel plot
in which the base is skewed to one side (asymmetry of the funnel plot).
In contrast, when there is no publication bias, the effect of the
smaller studies has no reason to be skewed to one side and so a
symmetric funnel plot results. This also means that if no publication
bias is present, there would be no relationship between standard error
and effect size.
A negative or positive relation between standard error and effect size
would imply that smaller studies that found effects in one direction
only were more likely to be published and/or to be submitted for
publication.
Apart from the visual funnel plot, statistical methods for
detecting publication bias have also been proposed. These are
controversial because they typically have low power for detection of
bias, but also may make false positives under some circumstances.
For instance small study effects (biased smaller studies), wherein
methodological differences between smaller and larger studies exist, may
cause asymmetry in effect sizes that resembles publication bias.
However, small study effects may be just as problematic for the
interpretation of meta-analyses, and the imperative is on meta-analytic
authors to investigate potential sources of bias.
A Tandem Method for analyzing publication bias has been suggested for cutting down false positive error problems.
This Tandem method consists of three stages. Firstly, one calculates
Orwin's fail-safe N, to check how many studies should be added in order
to reduce the test statistic to a trivial size. If this number of
studies is larger than the number of studies used in the meta-analysis,
it is a sign that there is no publication bias, as in that case, one
needs a lot of studies to reduce the effect size. Secondly, one can do
an Egger's regression test, which tests whether the funnel plot is
symmetrical. As mentioned before: a symmetrical funnel plot is a sign
that there is no publication bias, as the effect size and sample size
are not dependent. Thirdly, one can do the trim-and-fill method, which
imputes data if the funnel plot is asymmetrical.
The problem of publication bias is not trivial as it is suggested
that 25% of meta-analyses in the psychological sciences may have
suffered from publication bias.
However, low power of existing tests and problems with the visual
appearance of the funnel plot remain an issue, and estimates of
publication bias may remain lower than what truly exists.
Most discussions of publication bias focus on journal practices
favoring publication of statistically significant findings. However,
questionable research practices, such as reworking statistical models
until significance is achieved, may also favor statistically significant
findings in support of researchers' hypotheses.
Studies often do not report the effects when they do not reach statistical significance[citation needed].
For example, they may simply say that the groups did not show
statistically significant differences, without report any other
information (e.g. a statistic or p-value). Exclusion of these studies
would lead to a situation similar to publication bias, but their
inclusion (assuming null effects) would also bias the meta-analysis.
MetaNSUE, a new method created by Joaquim Radua, has shown to allow researchers to include unbiasedly these studies. Its steps are as follows:
- Maximum likelihood estimation of the meta-analytic effect and the heterogeneity between studies.
- Multiple imputation of the NSUEs adding noise to the estimate of the effect.
- Separate meta-analyses for each imputed dataset.
- Pooling of the results of these meta-analyses.
Other
weaknesses are that it has not been determined if the statistically
most accurate method for combining results is the fixed, IVhet, random
or quality effect models, though the criticism against the random
effects model is mounting because of the perception that the new random
effects (used in meta-analysis) are essentially formal devices to
facilitate smoothing or shrinkage and prediction may be impossible or
ill-advised.
The main problem with the random effects approach is that it uses the
classic statistical thought of generating a "compromise estimator" that
makes the weights close to the naturally weighted estimator if
heterogeneity across studies is large but close to the inverse variance
weighted estimator if the between study heterogeneity is small. However,
what has been ignored is the distinction between the model we choose to analyze a given dataset, and the mechanism by which the data came into being.
A random effect can be present in either of these roles, but the two
roles are quite distinct. There's no reason to think the analysis model
and data-generation mechanism (model) are similar in form, but many
sub-fields of statistics have developed the habit of assuming, for
theory and simulations, that the data-generation mechanism (model) is
identical to the analysis model we choose (or would like others to
choose). As a hypothesized mechanisms for producing the data, the random
effect model for meta-analysis is silly and it is more appropriate to
think of this model as a superficial description and something we choose
as an analytical tool – but this choice for meta-analysis may not work
because the study effects are a fixed feature of the respective
meta-analysis and the probability distribution is only a descriptive
tool.
Problems arising from agenda-driven bias
The most severe fault in meta-analysis often occurs when the person or persons doing the meta-analysis have an economic, social, or political agenda such as the passage or defeat of legislation. People with these types of agendas may be more likely to abuse meta-analysis due to personal bias. For example, researchers favorable to the author's agenda are likely to have their studies cherry-picked
while those not favorable will be ignored or labeled as "not credible".
In addition, the favored authors may themselves be biased or paid to
produce results that support their overall political, social, or
economic goals in ways such as selecting small favorable data sets and
not incorporating larger unfavorable data sets. The influence of such
biases on the results of a meta-analysis is possible because the
methodology of meta-analysis is highly malleable.
A 2011 study done to disclose possible conflicts of interests in
underlying research studies used for medical meta-analyses reviewed 29
meta-analyses and found that conflicts of interests in the studies
underlying the meta-analyses were rarely disclosed. The 29 meta-analyses
included 11 from general medicine journals, 15 from specialty medicine
journals, and three from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. The 29 meta-analyses reviewed a total of 509 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Of these, 318 RCTs reported funding sources, with 219 (69%) receiving funding from industry[clarification needed].
Of the 509 RCTs, 132 reported author conflict of interest disclosures,
with 91 studies (69%) disclosing one or more authors having financial
ties to industry. The information was, however, seldom reflected in the
meta-analyses. Only two (7%) reported RCT funding sources and none
reported RCT author-industry ties. The authors concluded "without
acknowledgment of COI due to industry funding or author industry
financial ties from RCTs included in meta-analyses, readers'
understanding and appraisal of the evidence from the meta-analysis may
be compromised."
For example, in 1998, a US federal judge found that the United States Environmental Protection Agency
had abused the meta-analysis process to produce a study claiming cancer
risks to non-smokers from environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) with the
intent to influence policy makers to pass smoke-free–workplace laws. The
judge found that:
EPA's study selection is disturbing. First, there is evidence in the record supporting the accusation that EPA "cherry picked" its data. Without criteria for pooling studies into a meta-analysis, the court cannot determine whether the exclusion of studies likely to disprove EPA's a priori hypothesis was coincidence or intentional. Second, EPA's excluding nearly half of the available studies directly conflicts with EPA's purported purpose for analyzing the epidemiological studies and conflicts with EPA's Risk Assessment Guidelines. See ETS Risk Assessment at 4-29 ("These data should also be examined in the interest of weighing all the available evidence, as recommended by EPA's carcinogen risk assessment guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1986a) (emphasis added)). Third, EPA's selective use of data conflicts with the Radon Research Act. The Act states EPA's program shall "gather data and information on all aspects of indoor air quality" (Radon Research Act § 403(a)(1)) (emphasis added).
As a result of the abuse, the court vacated Chapters 1–6 of and the
Appendices to EPA's "Respiratory Health Effects of Passive Smoking: Lung
Cancer and other Disorders".
Applications in modern science
Modern
statistical meta-analysis does more than just combine the effect sizes
of a set of studies using a weighted average. It can test if the
outcomes of studies show more variation than the variation that is
expected because of the sampling of different numbers of research
participants. Additionally, study characteristics such as measurement
instrument used, population sampled, or aspects of the studies' design
can be coded and used to reduce variance of the estimator (see
statistical models above). Thus some methodological weaknesses in
studies can be corrected statistically. Other uses of meta-analytic
methods include the development and validation of clinical prediction
models, where meta-analysis may be used to combine individual
participant data from different research centers and to assess the
model's generalisability, or even to aggregate existing prediction models.
Meta-analysis can be done with single-subject design as well as group research designs. This is important because much research has been done with single-subject research designs. Considerable dispute exists for the most appropriate meta-analytic technique for single subject research.
Meta-analysis leads to a shift of emphasis from single studies to
multiple studies. It emphasizes the practical importance of the effect
size instead of the statistical significance of individual studies. This
shift in thinking has been termed "meta-analytic thinking". The results
of a meta-analysis are often shown in a forest plot.
Results from studies are combined using different approaches. One
approach frequently used in meta-analysis in health care research is
termed 'inverse variance method'. The average effect size across all studies is computed as a weighted mean,
whereby the weights are equal to the inverse variance of each study's
effect estimator. Larger studies and studies with less random variation
are given greater weight than smaller studies. Other common approaches
include the Mantel–Haenszel method
and the Peto method.
Seed-based d mapping
(formerly signed differential mapping, SDM) is a statistical technique
for meta-analyzing studies on differences in brain activity or structure
which used neuroimaging techniques such as fMRI, VBM or PET.
Different high throughput techniques such as microarrays have been used to understand Gene expression. MicroRNA
expression profiles have been used to identify differentially expressed
microRNAs in particular cell or tissue type or disease conditions or to
check the effect of a treatment. A meta-analysis of such expression
profiles was performed to derive novel conclusions and to validate the
known findings.