The unbearably low standards in "basics of science" at MIT
The Boston Globe recently published an exchange between legendary
physicist Freeman Dyson and eight of his opponents who are employed by
MIT, including a quark expert and a string theorist:
The second, anti-Dyson text was written by the hurricane
opportunist Kerry Emanuel and by Robert Jaffe, a veteran of quark
theory, and it was signed by 6 more MIT employees. In total, 3 of the
people are physicists; the list includes string theorist Wati Taylor.
It is very obvious that to pretend that they have debunked Dyson, they
felt that they have needed to collect a larger number of "authorities".
The logic based on the "ad hominem fallacy" makes the anti-Dyson reply
totally analogous to the 1931 pseudoscientific rant against relativity
that was named
A Hundred Authors Against Einstein.
These 2nd class authors wanted to return physics to the 16th or 17th
century and Einstein replied in a simple way: "If relativity were wrong,
one author would have been enough to show it."
Richard Lindzen (who happens to be one man) wrote an insightful and
amusing third-person analysis of the exchange between Dyson and 8 MIT
employees at Anthony Watts' well-known website:
Lindzen: A recent exchange in the Boston Globe clearly illustrated the sophistic nature of the defense of global warming alarm
Dyson and Lindzen are climate skeptics which doesn't mean that they uncritically repeat the words of each other.
On the contrary, most climate skeptics typically avoid the group think
and that's true even "inside" the climate skeptic community. Lindzen's
report shows an example of that characteristic independence. When Dyson
and Lindzen disagree with each other, I mostly agree with Dick although I
am not as pure a Lindzen as he is. ;-)
The most obvious point of a disagreement between Dyson and Lindzen is
that Dyson says that the IPCC says that the science (of climate change)
is settled; and it's the IPCC that is the Urquell of the efforts to
reduce CO2 emissions. Lindzen says that the IPCC says that the science
is work in progress (because the IPCC members' salaries are derived from
the assumption that they keep on doing research so it can't be settled
yet); and the IPCC avoids policy recommendations and dramatic
interpretations which are only later added by activists and politicians.
The IPCC only cooperates passively by not objecting.
I think that Lindzen's description is the more accurate one. The actual
IPCC reports are written by people hired as scientists so they simply
can't pretend that the science is over because that would make their
daily job redundant. And yes, I do think that the actual IPCC reports
are mostly filled with regular science, sometimes boring science and
often legitimate science, and the dramatic oversimplified alarmist
interpretations are added as a bonus by "leaders" and especially
"outsiders".
Well, it's more complicated than that. The bulk of the IPCC reports are
"conventional, often boring science" but that bulk isn't too important.
The summaries are way more important and they're way more
policy-oriented, hysterical, and oversimplified. And even the summaries
are considered too long and complicated by too many people, including
most of the alarmist politicians, so these effectively work with even
more concise (and oversimplified, distorted, and dramatic) summaries of
the summaries. And with summaries of summaries of summaries – which are
equivalent to idiotic hysterical slogans that have almost nothing to do
with the science.
Moreover, one shouldn't forget that the IPCC has three working groups –
and only the first one (focusing on the physical mechanisms of the
"problem") fully agrees with Dick's description. The other two IPCC
working groups are increasingly social and political in character. For
these other two working groups, Dyson's description is increasingly
close to the truth.
There's one additional point where I totally agree with Dick. The main
problem with the alarmist interpretation of the climate science isn't
the magnitude of the climate sensitivity (although I find Lindzen's own
below-1-Celsius-degree values to be more likely than those above 2
degrees); the main problem is that many people love to deduce
far-reaching, sensational consequences out of the effect of CO2 even
though the effect is almost certainly very minor even according to the
IPCC reports themselves.
The "refined" statement about the important role of the humans in global warming is formulated by the IPCC Working Group 1 as:
The IPCC report presents strong evidence that more than half of the climate change seen in recent decades is human-driven.
And many people tend to use the agreement or disagreement
with the statement above as a criterion to distinguish alarmists from
skeptics. Well, like Lindzen, I consider myself a full-fledged denier
but I am totally open-minded about the quote above. In my opinion,
people just don't think carefully and rationally about the sentence
above.
Imagine that the sentence speaks about the recent 60 years or so. In
those 60 years, the global mean temperature could have increased by
something like 0.6 °C – that's the end-minus-beginning difference of a
linear function interpolating the noisy temperature graphs via linear
regression. With these values, the IPCC WG1 "iconic" statement says
The IPCC believes that the mankind has contributed at least 0.3 °C of warming of the globe in the recent 60 years.
Is it true? I honestly don't know. My estimate is that the
right figure is probably below 0.3 °C but the degree of my "certainty"
about that claim is very limited, not strongly exceeding 50 percent. In
other words, as far as I can say, the sentence may be either true or
false. But if the sentence is true, does it mean that there is a reason
for panic or reductions of CO2 emissions justified by the fear of
climate change? The sentence just says that since 1955 when most of the
TRF readers weren't born yet, the temperatures have increased by
three tenths of a Celsius degree
because of CO2 (only the partial CO2 contribution is counted in the
temperature figure). This is such a small temperature change that you
just can't feel it on your skin even when it occurs abruptly. It's much
harder to "feel it" if you have to wait for 60 years; and if you need to
deduce the value from careful measurements and statistical analyses
(averaging over the places, days+nights, and seasons) of the
temperatures on the whole globe.
Many people, including those who consider themselves skeptics, just
become totally irrational when they're expected to think about these
matters. The point is that this change of the temperature by 0.3 °C –
and IPCC doesn't really claim to be too convinced about any "faster"
warming trend – is indistinguishable from zero for all practical
purposes. It's a temperature change smaller than the effect of one large
volcano eruption; one El Niño episode.
Or take our very mild winter. We Central Europeans had a nice spring day
today; the temperature has reached 11 °C in the afternoon. People
living in the Eastern part of the U.S. can say something similar; the
western portions of the U.S. enjoy a rather old-fashioned winter,
however.
But now, it's natural for many people to think about the mild winter in
the context of the man-made climate change. By the constant repetition,
people's intuitive thinking – including mine – has been contaminated and
we just can't avoid thinking about "global warming" whenever the
weather is mild or hot. The problem with that knee-jerk reaction is that
the iconic IPCC statement is just "somewhat convinced" that in the last
60 years, the CO2 emissions have contributed at least 0.3 °C. It means
that if there had been no CO2 emissions, the today's high temperature in
Pilsen would be – according to the IPCC statement – not 11 °C but at
most 10.7 °C. Look at these two numbers carefully.
The qualitative point is that according to the scientifically
justifiable evidence, the CO2 emissions have had such a small effect on
the temperature that if there had been no emissions since the World War
II at all, it would make virtually no impact on the fact that the 2015
Christmas had no chance to be a white Christmas in Pilsen! Even if the
CO2 sensitivity were 3 times higher than that, we would have over 8 °C
in the afternoon and the snow (if any) would have no chance to survive.
Dick's point, one that I totally agree with, is that
even according to the IPCC Working Group 1,
the CO2 effect is so incredibly weak that it just wouldn't make any
detectable difference for the qualitative things that matter – like a
sunny Czech Christmas in 2015. We have had winds mostly from the South
for a week or two and that makes a difference, especially during a very
strong El Niño episode.
But I have spent too much time with the "flavors of skeptics". In
various contexts, I feel closest to Richard Lindzen or Bob Carter or
other great men. Needless to say, most of the actual confrontation and
disagreement isn't in between pairs of skeptics; it's between skeptics
and the alarmists.
Lindzen says that the reply by the 8 MIT physicists is "sophistic". I
think that the shallow reply by Wati Taylor and his 7 comrades could be
written on an MIT
place mat
– what you, an MIT freshman, should tell your family and uncle about
the climate change during the Christmas conversations. I am really
baffled that e.g. Wati Taylor isn't ashamed of adding his signature
under similarly incredibly misleading and sometimes downright false
slogans. This is just so pathetic, Wati. And something is extremely sick
about the MIT physics department when you fail to become an instant
anti-science pariah with this kind of junk.
For example, take the simple and absolutely uncontroversial statement at
the end of Dyson's article that "the main effect of CO2 is to make the
planet greener". Taylor and 7 comrades obviously find this statement to
be an inconvenient truth so they try to hide it in a bizarre demagogic
fog such as
The proposal that the “main effect of carbon dioxide is to
make the planet greener” overlooks the constraints imposed by the
availability of other nutrients and the disruption of the biosphere
caused by the direct effects of climate change.
Wati, can't you see how incredibly demagogic, dumb, and
misleading such a comment about "overlooked constraints" is? Dyson has
said just something that every fifth grader should or must know before
she becomes a sixth grader. Plants eat CO2. In the process of
photosynthesis, with the help of the solar energy coming to the leaves,
the oxygen and carbon atoms are separated while CO2 is removed from the
atmosphere, the chemical energy of the atoms increases by the separation
(it's just like when you are recharging a battery; the carbon and
oxygen atoms are ready to be usefully "burned" by animals or power
plants), the carbon atoms are incorporated to the plants' biomass, and
the oxygen is returned to the air.
It's obvious that because CO2 is the main material from which the
"solid" part of the plants is ultimately built (no, the big tree hasn't
removed the same amount of "solid" material from the soil, it took the
"solid" material mostly from the air!), a higher concentration of CO2
makes the life of the plants easier. Some plant species are very
sensitive about the shortage of CO2; other species are less sensitive.
An "average" plant's growth increases by 0.5% whenever you increase the
concentration of CO2 in the air by 1%.
Microscopically, the plants like a higher CO2 concentration because
their pores may be smaller or less numerous and it's still enough to get
the required amount of CO2 from the air (when and because the CO2
levels are higher). And when the pores are smaller or less numerous, the
leaves lose less water vapor – which evaporates through the pores. In
this way, the plants become more water-efficient and less sensitive to
shortage of water and that's the ultimate reason why they flourish in
high-CO2 environments.
Hundreds of experiments have been performed and hundreds of papers have
been written about these most direct effects of CO2. There exist
greenhouses where the higher CO2 is actively exploited. And I think that
there may exist schoolkids who actually know much more than the basic
wisdom I have sketched above. Now, Wati, are you smarter than a fifth
grader? Do you want to avoid the discussion of all the details by
denying the very basic point by Dyson
that the increased plant growth is the most direct effect of higher CO2
concentrations? Can you appreciate how incredibly stupid this denial
is? Are there any people left at MIT who are smarter than a fifth grader
and who will point out to you that you may be a string theorist but
when it comes to basics of biology, you are just a complete, 100%
imbecile?
And it's not just your straight denial of photosynthesis as the main
life process that depends on CO2 levels in the air. There are tons of
other, incredibly stupid slogans in your rant – some of them are written
down explicitly and some of them are written down implicitly. In the
sentence in which you denied photosynthesis (and claimed that Dyson has
"overlooked" something – be sure that he hasn't overlooked anything when
his point was just to make the spectacularly obviously correct claim
about photosynthesis), you also wrote about "the disruption of biosphere
caused by the direct effects of the climate change".
What? Have you lost your mind?
There is absolutely nothing "direct" about the hypothetical effects of
CO2 on the plant's life through meteorological phenomena. According to
the IPCC, the elevated CO2 levels only increase the global mean
temperature by more than 0.3 °C in 60 years with a probability just
barely exceeding 50%, according to their estimate. It is spectacularly
clear that a change of the temperature by 0.3 °C in either direction has
a negligible effect on a plant relatively to the change of the amount
of the available "food" by 40%.
Just think about it from a human perspective. Imagine that you solve
similar problems as a plant. You ate something last week. Next week, you
may either have the same amount of food and the temperatures higher or
lower than 0.3 °C; or you may enjoy the same temperature but the amount
of available food (I mean sugars, fats, and proteins) you may eat will
drop by 30 or 40 percent. Which change is more important or more
directly consequential for your well-being, (a) a temperature change by
0.3 °C or (b) the decrease of food supply by 30 or 40 percent? Do you
realize that by your unhinged anti-Dyson rant, you have picked the
answer (a)? Are you serious?
Now, there are other nutrients beyond sugars, fats, and proteins that
humans need. Does it change anything about the fact that the change of
the amount of sugars, fats, and proteins available to you by 30-40
percent is the most consequential change among those we have considered?
If you realize that the answer is a resounding "no, it changes
nothing", why the hell do you mention other nutrients at all? You're
just trying to make people look at some distractions instead of the key
thing and you must know that, mustn't you? Or are you really a complete
idiot?
And be sure about it, the greenhouse effect of CO2 causes a pretty much
uniform warming across the Earth's surface. It's because by the
diffusion, the CO2 concentration gets quickly homogeneous; and the
greenhouse effect controls the absorption of Earth's thermal radiation
which is always comparable at relatively nearby places of the Earth –
because the thermal radiation is proportional to the fourth power of the
absolute temperature.
The greenhouse effect doesn't change much about pressure and temperature
differences, vortices, storms, precipitation etc. If there is any
influence of the mostly uniform change on the more visible weather
phenomena, it's a spectacularly small 2nd or 3rd order effect. Even the
1st order effect, a change of the temperature by "at least 0.3 °C", was
almost certainly negligible. Now try to calculate the non-uniformities
of the greenhouse effect and its impact on pressure differences or the
ability to increase torrential rains or hurricanes that can influence a
plant. Can these effects be stronger than a 40% increase of the main
"food"? Is your brain enough to see that those influences of CO2 through
the weather patterns are absolutely negligible relatively to the change
of the food by 40%? If you're not, I won't really believe that it is
you who wrote the papers about string theory. In that case, you are dumb
as a doorknob and you must have someone else who was writing them and
you are declared as the author because author lists with unhinged
climate alarmists in them look more politically correct.
And the problems with the rant that you signed go on and on and on. The
rant is very short but literally every sentence contains several
explosive stupidities and easy-to-spot demagogy. You are basically
working hard to deny all basic facts about Earth and life sciences,
along with tons of basics of physics – the importance of photosynthesis,
the importance of the Sun for the climate, the fact that ice ages bring
a much more substantial cooling than the warming caused by CO2, the
fact that some known episodes of climate change in the past have
occurred within decades so it's simply not true that it always takes
thousands of years. You also try to deny the self-evident point that
every individual human and animal is capable of
instantaneous
adaptation to the temperature change by a degree or two. Your pretty
much explicit claim that one needs thousands of years to adapt to 1 °C
of warming is absolutely idiotic so that the intelligent third graders
will see it, too.
Moreover, your vague suggestion that the humans and other species are
significantly evolving in the time frame of thousands of years (during
the glaciation cycles) – when the temperature changes by several degrees
– is mostly rubbish, too. Real revolution occurs much more slowly than
the glaciation cycles. Glaciation cycles take tens or at most hundreds
of years; evolution normally needs millions of years. No significant
biological evolution has been taking place in between the phases of the
glaciation cycles; at most, one race of subspecies etc. became more
widespread than others.
Even though the anti-Dyson rant is so short, this essay could continue for hours.
It just drives me up the wall how incredibly lousy intellectual
standards are routinely tolerated e.g. in the MIT physics department
when some politically correct "causes" are being defended. You know,
communism has been crippling our society and the nation's morality in
many ways but I honestly don't remember a single example of Czechoslovak
communists' distorting influence of the natural sciences that could be
at least remotely compared to the climate alarmists' distortions of
photosynthesis, ice ages, solar output, sensitivity of plants on the
temperature, CO2, nutrients, water, whatever. The only good enough
analogy I can think of is the ban of genetics in the Soviet Union. I am
sure that you love to suggest that you're better than the Lysenkoists
but you are not.
The authors of the anti-Dyson rant in the Boston Globe should be deeply
ashamed and I encourage their students to spit into the authors' faces
and to demand a significant discount if they pay a tuition.