Regional effects of climate change

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_climate_change 

Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2019 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1978. Source: NASA.

Regional effects of climate change are long-term significant changes in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region due to climate change. The world average temperature is rising due to the greenhouse effect caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. When the global temperature changes, the changes in climate are not expected to be uniform across the Earth. In particular, land areas change more quickly than oceans, and northern high latitudes change more quickly than the tropics, and the margins of biome regions change faster than do their cores.

Regional effects of climate change vary in nature. Some are the result of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not necessarily follow the global trend. The increasing temperatures from greenhouse gases have been causing sea levels to rise for many years.

There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea level rise.

CMIP5 average of climate model projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under low and high emission scenarios.

The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian megadeltas are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change. Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity. Climate change is projected to decrease freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins. With population growth and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, are already exposed to extreme weather events and changes in sea level. This existing exposure will likely make these areas sensitive to the effects of climate change.

Past and projected Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps.

Background

With very high confidence, scientists have concluded that physical and biological systems on all continents and in most oceans had been affected by recent climate changes, particularly regional temperature increases. Impacts include changes in regional rainfall patterns, earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; changes in bird migrations in Europe, North America and Australia; and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities.

The human influence on the climate can be seen in the geographical pattern of observed warming, with greater temperature increases over land and in polar regions rather than over the oceans. Using models, it is possible to identify the human "signal" of global warming over both land and ocean areas.

Regional impacts

Highlights of recent and projected regional impacts are shown below:

Impacts on Africa

African countries are more affected by climate change because of the dependence on agriculture as well as their poor financial, technical and institutional capacity to adapt.

• Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity. Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation.
• By 2050, between 350 million and 601 million people are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change.
• Climate change is likely to lead to the increasing frequency and severity of Intense rainfall events across Africa. Since the 1980s climate change has resulted in the tripling in the frequency of extreme storms in the Sahel region of West Africa.
• Climate variability and change is projected to severely compromise agricultural production, including access to food, across Africa, which means there will be high food insecurity.
• Climate change can influence pest infestation and spread of animal disease because of increase in temperature and rainfall variability
• Toward the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will likely affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations
• Climate variability and change can negatively impact human health. In many African countries, other factors already threaten human health. For example, malaria threatens health in southern Africa and the Eastern Highlands.

Impacts on Arctic and Antarctic

• Climate change in the Arctic will likely reduce the thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets.
• Changes in natural ecosystems will likely have detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals, and higher predators. Climate change will likely cause changes in dominance structures in plant communities, with shrubs expanding.
• In the Arctic, climate changes will likely reduce the extent of sea ice and permafrost, which can have mixed effects on human settlements. Negative impacts could include damage to infrastructure and changes to winter activities such as ice fishing and ice road transportation. Positive impacts could include more navigable northern sea routes.
• Continued permafrost degradation will likely result in unstable infrastructure in Arctic regions, or Alaska before 2100. Thus, impacting roads, pipelines and buildings, as well as water distribution, and cause slope failures.
• The reduction and melting of permafrost, sea level rise, and stronger storms may worsen coastal erosion.
• Terrestrial and marine ecosystems and habitats are projected to be at risk to invasive species, as climatic barriers are lowered in both polar regions.

Impacts on Asia

• Glaciers in Asia are melting at a faster rate than ever documented in historical records. Melting glaciers increase the risks of flooding and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes.
• Climate change is projected to decrease freshwater availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins. With population growth and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.
• Increased flooding from the sea and, in some cases, from rivers, threatens coastal areas, especially heavily populated delta regions in south, east, and southeast Asia.
• By the mid-21st century, crop yields could increase up to 20% in east and southeast Asia. In the same period, yields could decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia.
• Sickness and death due to diarrhoeal disease are projected to increase in east, south, and southeast Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle associated with climate change.
• Agricultural demand from China's crops lead to land degradation and land modifications which in turn leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental factor#Socioeconomic Drivers

Impacts on Europe

• Wide-ranging impacts of climate change have already been documented in Europe. These impacts include retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, species range shifts, and heat wave-related health impacts.
• Future impacts of climate change are projected to negatively affect nearly all European regions. Many economic sectors, such as agriculture and energy, could face challenges.
• In southern Europe, higher temperatures and drought may reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and crop productivity.
• In central and eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress. Forest productivity is projected to decline. The frequency of peatland fires is projected to increase.
• In northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields, and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, negative impacts are likely to outweigh benefits. These include more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems, and increasing ground instability.

Impacts on South America

• By mid-century, increases in temperature and decreases in soil moisture are projected to cause savanna to gradually replace tropical forest in the eastern Amazon basin.
• In drier areas, climate change will likely worsen drought, leading to salinization (increased salt content) and desertification (land degradation) of agricultural land. The productivity of livestock and some important crops such as maize and coffee are projected to decrease, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybean yields are projected to increase.
• Sea level rise is projected to increase risk of flooding, displacement of people, salinization of drinking water resources, and coastal erosion in low-lying areas.
• Changes in precipitation patterns and the melting of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy generation.

Impacts on North America

Projected change in seasonal mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060). The left panel shows changes for June–July–August (JJA) seasonal averages, and the right panel shows changes for December–January–February (DJF). The change is in response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions (SRES emissions scenario A1B). Warming is projected to be larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) (Credit: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory).

• Warming in western mountains is projected to decrease snowpack, increase winter flooding, and reduce summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.
• Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to increasingly affect forests, with extended periods of high fire risk and large increases in area burned.
• Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or that depend on highly utilized water resources will likely face major challenges.
• Increases in the number, intensity, and duration of heat waves during the course of the century are projected to further challenge cities that currently experience heat waves, with potential for adverse health impacts. Older populations are most at risk.
• Climate change will likely increasingly stress coastal communities and habitats, worsening the existing stresses of development and pollution.

As to 2019, climate change have already increased wildfires frequency and power in Canada, especially in Alberta.

Impacts on Oceania

• Water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia, and in the northern and some eastern parts of New Zealand.
• Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and the Wet Tropics of Queensland.
• Sea level rise and more severe storms and coastal flooding will likely impact coastal areas. Coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), would place more people and infrastructure at risk.
• By 2030, increased drought and fire is projected to cause declines in agricultural and forestry production over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand.
• Extreme storm events are likely to increase failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage and sewerage, as well as damage from storms and fires.
• More heat waves may cause more deaths and more electrical blackouts.

Impacts on small islands

• Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, are already exposed to extreme weather events and changes in sea level. This existing exposure will likely make these areas sensitive to the effects of climate change.
• Deterioration in coastal conditions, such as beach erosion and coral bleaching, will likely affect local resources such as fisheries, as well as the value of tourism destinations.
• Sea level rise is projected to worsen inundation, storm surge, erosion, and other coastal hazards. These impacts would threaten vital infrastructure, settlements, and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.
• By mid-century, on many small islands (such as the Caribbean and Pacific), climate change is projected to reduce already limited water resources to the point that they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods.
• Invasion by non-native species is projected to increase with higher temperatures, particularly in mid- and high-latitude islands.

Inundation, displacement, and national sovereignty of small islands

According to scholar Tsosie, environmental disparities among disadvantaged communities including poor and racial minorities, extend to global inequalities between the developed and developing countries. For example, according to Barnett, J. and Adger, W.N. the projected damage to small islands and atoll communities will be a consequence of climate change caused by developing countries that will disproportionately affect these developing nations.

Sea-level rise and increased tropical cyclones are expected to place low-lying small islands in the Pacific, Indian, and Caribbean regions at risk of inundation and population displacement.

According to N. Mimura's study on the vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change, financially burdened island populations living in the lowest-lying regions are most vulnerable to risks of inundation and displacement. On the islands of Fiji, Tonga and western Samoa for example, high concentrations of migrants that have moved from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts.

Atoll nations, which include countries that are composed entirely of the smallest form of islands, called motus, are at risk of entire population displacement. These nations include Kiribati, Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tokelau, and Tuvalu. According to a study on climate dangers to atoll countries, characteristics of atoll islands that make them vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts include their small size, their isolation from other land, their low income resources, and their lack of protective infrastructure.

A study that engaged the experiences of residents in atoll communities found that the cultural identities of these populations are strongly tied to these lands. The risk of losing these lands therefore threatens the national sovereignty, or right to self-determination, of Atoll nations. Human rights activists argue that the potential loss of entire atoll countries, and consequently the loss of cultures and indigenous lifeways cannot be compensated with financial means. Some researchers suggest that the focus of international dialogues on these issues should shift from ways to relocate entire communities to strategies that instead allow for these communities to remain on their lands.

Especially affected regions

The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian megadeltas are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.

Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk from future climate change, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.

The Arctic

The Arctic is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of the high projected rate of regional warming and associated impacts. Temperature projections for the Arctic region were assessed by Anisimov et al. (2007). These suggested areally averaged warming of about 2 °C to 9 °C by the year 2100. The range reflects different projections made by different climate models, run with different forcing scenarios. Radiative forcing is a measure of the effect of natural and human activities on the climate. Different forcing scenarios reflect, for example, different projections of future human greenhouse gas emissions.

Africa

Africa is likely to be the continent most vulnerable to climate change. With high confidence, Boko et al. (2007) projected that in many African countries and regions, agricultural production and food security would probably be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2007) produced a post-conflict environmental assessment of Sudan. According to UNEP (2007), environmental stresses in Sudan are interlinked with other social, economic and political issues, such as population displacement and competition over natural resources. Regional climate change, through decreased precipitation, was thought to have been one of the factors which contributed to the conflict in Darfur. Along with other environmental issues, climate change could negatively affect future development in Sudan. One of the recommendations made by UNEP (2007) was for the international community to assist Sudan in adapting to climate change.

Located in the Greater Horn of Africa region, Kenya also experiences high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The main climate hazards include droughts and floods with current projects forecasting more intense and less predictable rainfall. In addition, other projections anticipate temperatures rising by 0.5 to 2 °C. In crowded, urban settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, the conditions of informal settlements or “slums” may exacerbate the impacts of climate change and disaster-related risk. In particular, the living conditions of large informal settlements often create a warmer "micro-climate" due to home construction materials, lack of ventilation, sparse green space, and poor access to electrical power and other services. To mitigate climate change-related risks in these informal neighborhood settlements, it will be important to upgrade these settlements through urban development interventions that are built for climate resilience. Such interventions include upgrades for waste.

Small and large islands

Small islands are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Harsh and extreme weather conditions is a part of everyday life however as the climate changes these small islands find it difficult to adapt to the rising scale and intensity of storm surges, salt water intrusion and coastal destruction.

The Caribbean

Map of the Caribbean

 

Climate change in the Caribbean poses major risks to the islands in the Caribbean. The main environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a rise in sea level, stronger hurricanes, longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons. As a result, climate change is expected to lead to changes in the economy, environment and population of the Caribbean. Temperature rise of 2°C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by four to five times in the Bahamas and three times in Cuba and Dominican Republic. Rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin America and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29 – 32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be the most affected because at least 80% of the total land is below the sea level.

The Philippines

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. The archipelago of 7,109 islands is situated along the Pacific Ocean's typhoon belt, leaving the country vulnerable to an average of 20 typhoons every year, five of which are destructive. In addition, the Philippines is also located within the “Pacific Ring of Fire" which makes the country prone to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Compounding these issues, the impacts of climate change, such as accelerated sea level rise, exacerbate the state's high susceptibility to natural disasters, which also flooding and landslides.

Recognizing the Philippines’ considerable disaster risk, there is considerable need for disaster risk reduction and preparedness as well as humanitarian relief efforts. The Philippines institutionalizes the humanitarian cluster approach, and it plans and administers disaster relief through its National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). NDRRMC also oversees the 18 regional Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils (LDRRMCs), which in turn supervise disaster risk reduction and management operations at the provincial, city, and barangay levels (barangay is the lowest level of government, similar to the "village" level.

Middle East

The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves, sea level rise. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, the region can become uninhabitable before the year 2100.

South Asia

Afghanistan

Climate change impacts in Afghanistan culminate from overlapping interactions of natural disasters (due to changes in the climate system), conflict, agricultural dependency, and severe socio-economic hardship. Combined with infrequent earthquakes, climate-related disasters such as floods, flash floods, avalanches and heavy snowfalls on average affect 200,000 people every year, causing massive losses of lives, livelihoods and properties. Unfortunately, these interacting factors, particularly protracted conflicts which erode and challenge the ability to handle, adapt to and plan for climate change at individual and national levels, often turn climate change risks and hazards into disasters.

Ice-cover changes

Permanent ice cover on land is a result of a combination of low peak temperatures and sufficient precipitation. Some of the coldest places on Earth, such as the dry valleys of Antarctica, lack significant ice or snow coverage due to a lack of snow. Sea ice however maybe formed simply by low temperature, although precipitation may influence its stability by changing albedo, providing an insulating covering of snow and affecting heat transfer. Global warming has the capacity to alter both precipitation and temperature, resulting in significant changes to ice cover. Furthermore, the behaviour of ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers is altered by changes in temperature and precipitation, particularly as regards the behaviour of water flowing into and through the ice.

Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice minima in 2005, 2007, and the 1979-2000 average.

Recent projections of sea ice loss suggest that the Arctic ocean will likely be free of summer sea ice sometime between 2059 and 2078.

Models showing decreasing sea ice also show a corresponding decrease in polar bear habitat. Some scientists see the polar bear as a species which will be affected first and most severely by global warming because it is a top-level predator in the Arctic, which is projected to warm more than the global average. Recent reports show polar bears resorting to cannibalism, and scientists state that these are the only instances that they have observed of polar bears stalking and killing one another for food.

Antarctica

The collapse of Larsen B, showing the diminishing extent of the shelf from 1998 to 2002

The Antarctic peninsula has lost a number of ice shelves recently. These are large areas of floating ice which are fed by glaciers. Many are the size of a small country. The sudden collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 took 5 weeks or less and may have been due to global warming. Larsen B had previously been stable for up to 12,000 years.

Concern has been expressed about the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet. A collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet could occur "within 300 years [as] a worst-case scenario. Rapid sea-level rise (>1 m per century) is more likely to come from the WAIS than from the [Greenland ice sheet]."

Greenland

As the Greenland ice sheet loses mass from calving of icebergs as well as by melting of ice, any such processes tend to accelerate the loss of the ice sheet.

The IPCC suggest that Greenland will become ice free at around 5 Celsius degrees over pre-industrial levels, but subsequent research comparing data from the Eemian period suggests that the ice sheet will remain at least in part at these temperatures. The volume of ice in the Greenland sheet is sufficient to cause a global sea level rise of 7 meters. It would take 3,000 years to completely melt the Greenland ice sheet. This figure was derived from the assumed levels of greenhouse gases over the duration of the experiment. In reality, these greenhouse gas levels are of course affected by future emissions and may differ from the assumptions made in the model.

Glaciers

Glacier retreat does not only affect the communities and ecosystems around the actual glacier but the entire downstream region. The most notable example of this is in India, where river systems such as the Indus and Ganges are ultimately fed by glacial meltwater from the Himalayas. Loss of these glaciers will have dramatic effects on the downstream region, increasing the risk of drought as lower flows of meltwater reduce summer river flows unless summer precipitation increases. Altered patterns of flooding can also affect soil fertility.

The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:

"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the world.... In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring floods and mudflows.... In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the Indus and the Ganges. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."

Permafrost regions

Regions of permafrost cover much of the Arctic. In many areas, permafrost is melting, leading to the formation of a boggy, undulating landscape filled with thermokarst lakes and distinctive patterns of drunken trees. The process of permafrost melting is complex and poorly understood since existing models do not include feedback effects such as the heat generated by decomposition.

Arctic permafrost soils are estimated to store twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere in the form of CO2. Warming in the Arctic is causing increased emissions of CO2 and Methane (CH₄).

Precipitation and vegetation changes

The Eastern Amazon rainforest may be replaced by Caatinga vegetation as a result of global warming.

Much of the effect of global warming is felt through its influence on rain and snow. Regions may become wetter, drier, or may experience changes in the intensity of precipitation - such as moving from a damp climate to one defined by a mixture of floods and droughts. These changes may have a very severe impact on both the natural world and human civilisation, as both naturally occurring and farmed plants experience regional climate change that is beyond their ability to tolerate.

A U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) analysis published in the Journal of Climate October 2011, and cited on Joseph J. Romm's, climateprogress.org, found that increasing droughts in the Middle East during the wintertime when the region traditionally receives most of its rainfall to replenish aquifers, and anthropogenic climate change is partly responsible. Per Earth System Research Laboratory's Martin Hoerling “The magnitude and frequency of the drying that has occurred is too great to be explained by natural variability alone,” and “This is not encouraging news for a region that already experiences water stress, because it implies natural variability alone is unlikely to return the region’s climate to normal.” the lead author of the paper. Twelve of the world's fifteen most water-scarce countries — Bahrain, Qatar, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Israel and Palestine — are in the Middle East.

Arctic and Alpine regions

Polar and alpine ecosystems are assumed to be particularly vulnerable to climate change as their organisms dwell at temperatures just above the zero degree threshold for a very short summer growing season. Predicted changes in climate over the next 100 years are expected to be substantial in arctic and sub-arctic regions. Already there is evidence of upward shifts of plants in mountains and in arctic shrubs are predicted to increase substantially to warming.

Amazon

One modeling study suggested that the extent of the Amazon rainforest may be reduced by 70% if global warming continues unchecked, due to regional precipitation changes that result from weakening of large-scale tropical circulation.

North America

By the year 2100, severe storms that used to happen on average once every 20, 50, or 100 years ("twenty-year," "fifty-year," and "hundred-year storms") may happen every couple of years, according to a study published in June 2020 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Sahara

Some studies suggest that the Sahara desert may have been more vegetated during the warmer Mid-Holocene period, and that future warming may result in similar patterns.

Sahel

Some studies have found a greening of the Sahel due to global warming. Other climate models predict "a doubling of the number of anomalously dry years [in the Sahel] by the end of the century".

Desert expansion

Expansion of subtropical deserts is expected as a result of global warming, due to expansion of the Hadley Cell.

Coastal regions

Past sea-level changes and relative temperatures. Global warming is expected to dramatically affect sea level.

Global sea level is currently rising due to the thermal expansion of water in the oceans and the addition of water from ice sheets. Because of this, there low-lying coastal areas, many of which are heavily populated, are at risk of flooding.

Areas threatened by current sea level rise include Tuvalu and the Maldives. Regions that are prone to storm surges, such as London, are also threatened.

With very high confidence, IPCC (2007) projected that by the 2080s, many millions more people would experience floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected were projected to be largest in the densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa. Small islands were judged to be especially vulnerable.

Ocean effects

North Atlantic region

It has been suggested that a shutdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation may result in relative cooling of the North Atlantic region by up to 8C in certain locations. Recent research suggests that this process is not currently underway.

Tropical surface and troposphere temperatures

In the tropics, basic physical considerations, climate models, and multiple independent data sets indicate that the warming trend due to well-mixed greenhouse gases should be faster in the troposphere than at the surface.

A Guide for the Perplexed

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Guide_for_the_Perplexed 

 

A Guide for the Perplexed

First edition (US)
Author	E. F. Schumacher
Genre	Non-fiction
Published	1977
Publisher	Harper & Row (US) Jonathan Cape (UK)
Pages	160 pages
ISBN	978-0-06-090611-5

 

A Guide for the Perplexed is a short book by E. F. Schumacher, published in 1977. The title is a reference to Maimonides's The Guide for the Perplexed. Schumacher himself considered A Guide for the Perplexed to be his most important achievement, although he was better known for his 1973 environmental economics bestseller Small Is Beautiful, which made him a leading figure within the ecology movement. His daughter wrote that her father handed her the book on his deathbed, five days before he died and he told her "this is what my life has been leading to". As the Chicago Tribune wrote, "A Guide for the Perplexed is really a statement of the philosophical underpinnings that inform Small Is Beautiful".

Schumacher describes his book as being concerned with how humans live in the world. It is also a treatise on the nature and organisation of knowledge and is something of an attack on what Schumacher calls "materialistic scientism". Schumacher argues that the current philosophical "maps" that dominate western thought and science are both overly narrow and based on some false premises. However, this book is only in small part a critique.

Four Great Truths

Schumacher put forward what he considers to be the four great truths of philosophical map making:

• The world is a hierarchical structure with at least four "levels of being".
• The "Principle of Adequateness" determines human ability to accurately perceive the world.
• Human learning relates to four "fields of knowledge".
• The art of living requires an understanding of two types of problem: "convergent" and "divergent".

Critique of materialistic scientism

Schumacher was very much in favor of the scientific spirit, but felt that the dominant methodology within science, which he called materialistic scientism, was flawed and stood in the way of achieving knowledge in any other arena than inanimate nature. Schumacher believed that this flaw originated in the writings of Descartes and Francis Bacon, when modern science was first established.

He makes a distinction between the descriptive and instructional sciences. According to Schumacher the descriptive sciences are primarily concerned with what can be seen or otherwise experienced, e.g. botany and sociology, while the instructional sciences are concerned with how certain systems work and can be manipulated to produce certain results, e.g. biology and chemistry. Instructional science is primarily based on evidence gained from experimentation.

Materialistic scientism is based on the methodology of the instructional sciences, which developed to study and experiment with inanimate matter. According to Schumacher many philosophers of science fail to recognize the difference between descriptive and instructional science, or ascribe this difference to stages in the evolution of a specific science, which for these philosophers means that the instructional sciences are seen as being the most advanced variety of science.

He is particularly offended by the view that instructional science is the most advanced form of science, because for Schumacher, it is the study of the low hanging fruit of inanimate matter, or less metaphorically the study of the lowest and least complex level of being. As Schumacher sees it, knowledge gained about the higher levels of being, while far harder to get and far less certain, is all the more valuable.

He argues that applying the standards and procedures of instructional science to descriptive sciences is erroneous, because in the descriptive fields it is simply not possible to use the experimental techniques of instructional sciences. Experimentation is a very effective methodology when dealing with inanimate matter, but applying it to the living world is liable to destroy or damage living things and systems, and is therefore inappropriate.

He uses the term scientism because he argues that many people, including some philosophers of science, have misunderstood the theory behind instructional science and believe that it produces truth. But the instructional sciences are based on induction; and as David Hume famously points out induction is not the same as truth. Furthermore, according to Schumacher, instructional sciences are primarily concerned only with the parts of truth that are useful for manipulation, i.e. they focus on those instructions which are necessary to reliably produce certain results. But this does not mean that an alternative instruction set won't work, or indeed an alternative instruction set based on quite different principles. For Schumacher, instructional sciences therefore produce theories which are useful: pragmatic truths. By contrast, Schumacher argues that the descriptive sciences are interested in the truth in the wider sense of the word.

He argues that materialistic scientism follows a policy of leaving something out if it is in doubt. Consequently, the maps of western science fail to show large 'unorthodox' parts of both theory and practice of science and social science, and reveal a complete disregard for art and many other high level humanistic qualities. Such an approach, Schumacher argues, provides a grey, limited, utilitarian worldview without room for vitally important phenomena like beauty and meaning.

He observes that the mere mention of spirituality and spiritual phenomena in academic discussion is seen among scientists as a sign of 'mental deficiency' . Schumacher argues that where there is near total agreement a subject becomes effectively dead; it therefore is the subjects where there is doubt that deserve the most intense research. Schumacher believes in contrast to materialistic science that what is in doubt should be shown prominently, not hidden away or ignored.

His biggest complaint against materialistic scientism is that it rejects the validity of certain questions, which for Schumacher are actually the most important questions of all. Materialistic scientism rejects the idea of levels of being, but for Schumacher this leads to a one-sided view of nature. For Schumacher, you can learn much about humanity by studying from the perspective of minerals, plants and animals, because humans contain the lower levels of being. But that is not the full or even the most important part of the story, as he puts "...everything can be learned about him except that which makes us human."

Evolutionism

Schumacher first states that the evolutionist doctrine clearly sits in the descriptive sciences rather than instructive sciences. Schumacher accepts that evolution as a generalization within the descriptive science of biological change has been established beyond any doubt whatsoever. However, he considers the 'evolutionist doctrine' to be a very different matter. The evolutionist doctrine purports to prove and explain biological change in the same manner as the proof and explanation offered by the instructional sciences. Schumacher quotes the 1975 Encyclopædia Britannica as an example of this view "Darwin did two things: he showed that evolution was in fact contradicting scriptural legends of creation and that its cause, natural selection, was automatic leaving no room for divine guidance or design."

He considers the evolutionist doctrine to be a major philosophical and scientific error. Schumacher argues that the evolutionist doctrine starts with the perfectly reasonable explanation of change in living beings, and then jumps to using it as an explanation for the development of consciousness, self-awareness, language, social institutions and the origin of life itself. Schumacher points out that making this conceptual leap simply does not meet the standards of scientific rigor and the uncritical acceptance of this leap is, for Schumacher, completely unscientific.

Levels of being

For Schumacher one of science's major mistakes has been rejecting the traditional philosophical and religious view that the universe is a hierarchy of being. Schumacher makes a restatement of the traditional chain of being.

He agrees with the view that there are four kingdoms: Mineral, Plant, Animal, Human. He argues that there are critical differences of kind between each level of being. Between mineral and plant is the phenomenon of life. Schumacher says that although scientists say we should not use the phrase 'life energy', the difference still exists and has not been explained by science. Schumacher points out that though we can recognize life and destroy it, we can't create it. Schumacher notes that the 'life sciences' are 'extraordinary' because they hardly ever deal with life as such, and instead content themselves with analyzing the "physico-chemical body which is life's carrier." Schumacher goes on to say there is nothing in physics or chemistry to explain the phenomenon of life.

For Schumacher, a similar jump in level of being takes place between plant and animal, which is differentiated by the phenomenon of consciousness. We can recognize consciousness, not least because we can knock an animal unconscious, but also because animals exhibit at minimum primitive thought and intelligence.

The next level, according to Schumacher, is between Animal and Human, which are differentiated by the phenomenon of self-consciousness or self awareness. Self-consciousness is the reflective awareness of one's consciousness and thoughts.

Schumacher realizes that the terms—life, consciousness and self-consciousness—are subject to misinterpretation so he suggests that the differences can best be expressed as an equation which can be written thus:

• "Mineral" = m
• "Plant" = m + x
• "Animal" = m + x + y
• "Human" = m + x + y + z

In his theory, these three factors (x, y and z) represent ontological discontinuities. He argues that the differences can be likened to differences in dimension; and from one perspective it could be argued that only humans have 'real' existence insofar as they possess the three dimensions of life, consciousness and self-consciousness. Schumacher uses this perspective to contrast with the materialistic scientism view, which argues that what is 'real' is inanimate matter, denying the realness of life, consciousness and self-consciousness, despite the fact each individual can verify those phenomena from their own experience.

He directs our attention to the fact that science has generally avoided seriously discussing these discontinuities, because they present such difficulties for strictly materialistic science, and they largely remain mysteries.

Next he considers the animal model of humanity which has grown popular in science. Schumacher notes that within the humanities the distinction between consciousness and self consciousness is now seldom drawn. Consequently, people have become increasingly uncertain about whether there is any difference between animals and humans. Schumacher notes that a great deal of research about humans has been conducted by studying animals. Schumacher argues that this is analogous to studying physics in the hope of understanding life. Schumacher goes on to say that much can be learned about humanity by studying minerals, plants and animals because humans have inherited those levels of being: all, that is, "except that which makes him [sic] human."

Schumacher goes on to say that nothing is "more conducive to the brutalisation of the modern world" than calling humans the "naked ape". Schumacher argues that once people begin viewing humans as "animal machines" they soon begin treating them accordingly.

Schumacher argues that what defines humanity are our greatest achievements, not the common run of the mill things. He argues that human beings are open-ended because of self-awareness, which as distinct from life and consciousness has nothing mechanical or automatic about it. For Schumacher "the powers of self awareness are, essentially, a limitless potentiality rather than an actuality. They have to be developed and 'realized' by each human individual if one is to become truly human, that is to say, a person."

Progressions

Schumacher points out that there are a number of progressions that take place between the levels. The most striking he believes is the movement from passivity to activity, there is a change in the origination of movement between each level:

• Cause (Mineral kingdom)
• Stimulus (Plant kingdom)
• Motive (Animal kingdom)
• Will (Humanity)

One consequence of this progression is that each level of being becomes increasingly unpredictable, and it is in this sense that humans can be said to have free will.

He notes increasing integration is a consequence of levels of being. A mineral can be subdivided and it remains of the same composition. Plants are more integrated; but sometimes parts of a plant can survive independently of the original plant. Animals are physically integrated; and so an appendage of an animal does not make another animal. However, while animals are highly integrated physically, they are not integrated in their consciousness. Humans, meanwhile, are not only physically integrated but have an integrated consciousness; however they are poorly integrated in terms of self-consciousness.

Another interesting progression, for him, is the change in the richness of the world at each level of being. A mineral has no world as such. A plant has some limited awareness of its immediate conditions. An animal, however, has a far more rich and complex world. Finally, humans have the most rich and complicated world of all.

Implications

For Schumacher, recognizing these different levels of being is vital, because the governing rules of each level are different, which has clear implications for the practice of science and the acquisition of knowledge. Schumacher denies the democratic principles of science. He argues that all humans can practice the study of the inanimate matter, because they are a higher level of being; but only the spiritually aware can know about self-consciousness and possibly higher levels. Schumacher states that "while the higher comprises and therefore in a sense understands the lower, no being can understand anything higher than themselves."

Schumacher argues that by removing the vertical dimension from the universe and the qualitative distinctions of "higher" and "lower" qualities which go with it, materialistic scientism can in the societal sphere only lead to moral relativism and utilitarianism. While in the personal sphere, answering the question "What do I do with my life?" leaves us with only two answers: selfishness and utilitarianism.

In contrast, he argues that appreciating the different levels of being provides a simple but clear morality. The traditional view, as Schumacher says, has always been that the proper goal of humanity is "...to move higher, to develop one's highest faculties, to gain knowledge of the higher and highest things, and, if possible, to "see God". If one moves lower, develops only one's lower faculties, which we share with the animals, then one makes oneself deeply unhappy, even to the point of despair." This is a view, Schumacher says, which is shared by all the major religions. Many things, Schumacher says, while true at a lower level, become absurd at a higher level, and vice versa.

Schumacher does not claim there is any scientific evidence for a level of being above self-consciousness, contenting himself with the observation that this has been the universal conviction of all major religions.

Adequateness

Schumacher explains that the bodily senses are adequate for perceiving inanimate matter; but we need 'intellectual' senses for other levels. Schumacher observes that science has shown that we perceive not only with the senses, but also with the mind. He illustrates this with the example of a complex scientific book; it means quite different things to an animal, illiterate man, educated man and scientist. Each person possesses different internal 'senses' which means they 'understand' the book in quite different manners.

He argues that the common view that "...the facts should speak for themselves" is problematic because it is not a simple matter to distinguish fact and theory or perception and interpretation. He quotes R. L. Gregory in Eye and Brain, "Perception is not determined simply by the stimulus pattern, rather it is a dynamic searching for the best interpretation of data." He argues that we 'see' not just with our eyes; but our mental equipment and "since this mental equipment varies greatly from person to person, there are inevitably many things which some people can 'see' while others cannot, or, to put it differently, for which some people are adequate while others are not."

For him, higher and more significant perceptive abilities are based on the ability to be critically aware of one's presuppositions. Schumacher writes "There is nothing more difficult than to be aware of one's thought. Everything can be seen directly except the eye through which we see. Every thought can be scrutinised directly except the thought by which we scrutinise. A special effort, an effort of self-awareness is needed — that almost impossible feat of thought recoiling upon itself: almost impossible but not quite. In fact, this is the power that makes man human and also capable of transcending his humanity."

He notes that for anyone who views the world through materialistic scientism this talk of higher perception is meaningless. For a scientist who believes in materialistic scientism, higher levels of being "simply do not exist, because his faith excludes the possibility of their existence."

He points out that materialistic science is principally based on the sense of sight and looks only at the external manifestation of things. Necessarily according to the principle of adequateness, materialistic science cannot know more than a limited part of nature. Schumacher argues that by restricting the modes of observation, a limited "objectivity" can be attained; but this is attained at the expense of knowledge of the object as a whole. Only the 'lowest' and most superficial aspects are accessible to objective scientific instruments.

He notes that science became "science for manipulation" following Descartes. Descartes promised humanity would become "masters and possessors of nature", a point of view first popularised by Francis Bacon. For Schumacher this was something of a wrong turn, because it meant the devaluation of "science for understanding" or wisdom. One of Schumacher's criticisms is that "science for manipulation" almost inevitably leads from the manipulation of nature to the manipulation of people. Schumacher argues that 'science for manipulation' is a valuable tool when subordinated for "science for understanding" or wisdom; but until then "science for manipulation" has become a danger to humanity.

Schumacher argues that if materialistic scientism grows to dominate science even further, then there will be three negative consequences:

1. Quality of life will fall, because solutions of quantity are incapable of solving problems of quality.
2. 'Science for understanding' will not develop, because the dominant paradigm will prevent it being treated as a serious subject.
3. Problems will become insoluble, because the higher powers of man will atrophy through lack of use.

Schumacher argues that the ideal science would have a proper hierarchy of knowledge from pure knowledge for understanding at the top of the hierarchy to knowledge for manipulation at the bottom. At the level of knowledge for manipulation, the aims of prediction and control are appropriate. But as we deal with higher levels they become increasingly absurd. As he says "Human beings are highly predictable as physico-chemical systems, less predictable as living bodies, much less so as conscious beings and hardly at all as self aware persons."

The result of materialistic scientism is that humanity has become rich in means and poor in ends. Lacking a sense of higher values Western societies are left with pluralism, moral relativism and utilitarianism, and for Schumacher the inevitable result is chaos.

Four fields of knowledge

Schumacher identifies four fields of knowledge for the individual:

1. I → inner
2. I → other persons (inner)
3. other persons → I
4. I → the world

These four fields arise from combining two pairs: Myself and the World; and Outer Appearance and Inner Experience. He notes that humans only have direct access to fields one and four.

Field one is being aware of your feelings and thoughts and most closely correlates to self awareness. He argues this is fundamentally the study of attention. He differentiates between when your attention is captured by the item it focuses upon, which is when a human being functions much like a machine; and when a person consciously directs their attention according to their choosing. This for him is the difference between being lived and living.

Field two is being aware of what other people are thinking and feeling.

Despite these problems we do experience a 'meeting of minds' with other individuals at certain times. People are even able to ignore the words actually said, and say something like "I don't agree with what you are saying; but I do agree with what you mean." Schumacher argues that one of the reasons we can understand other people is through bodily experience, because so many bodily expressions, gestures and postures are part of our common human heritage.

Schumacher observes that the traditional answer to the study of field two has been "You can understand others to the extent you understand yourself." Schumacher points out that this a logical development of the principle of adequateness, how can you understand someone's pain unless you too have experienced pain?

Field three is understanding yourself as an objective phenomenon. Knowledge in field three requires you to be aware what other people think of you. Schumacher suggests that the most fruitful advice in this field can be gained by studying the Fourth Way concept of external considering.

Schumacher observes that relying on just field one knowledge makes you feel that you are the centre of the universe; while focusing on field three knowledge makes you feel that you are far more insignificant. Seeking self-knowledge via both fields provides more balanced and accurate self-knowledge.

Field four is the behaviourist study of the outside world. Science is highly active in this area of knowledge and many people believe it is the only field in which true knowledge can be gained. For Schumacher, applying the scientific approach is highly appropriate in this field.

Schumacher summarises his views about the four fields of knowledge as follows:

• Only when all four fields of knowledge are cultivated can you have true unity of knowledge. Instruments and methodologies of study should be only applied to the appropriate field they are designed for.
• Clarity of knowledge depends on relating the four fields of knowledge to the four levels of being.
• The instructional sciences should confine their remit to field four, because it is only in the field of appearances that mathematical precision can be obtained. The descriptive sciences, however, are not behaving appropriately if they focus solely on appearances, and must delve in meaning and purpose or they will produce sterile results.
• Self-knowledge can only be effectively pursued by balanced study of field one (self awareness) and field three (objective self-knowledge).
• Study of field two (understanding other individuals) is dependent on first developing a powerful insight into field one (self awareness).

Two types of problems

Schumacher argues that there are two types of problems in the world: convergent and divergent. For him, discerning whether a problem is convergent or divergent is one of the arts of living.

Convergent problems are ones in which attempted solutions gradually converge on one solution or answer. An example of this has been the development of the bicycle. Early attempts at developing human-powered vehicles included three- and four-wheelers and involved wheels of different sizes. Modern bicycles look much the same nowadays.

Divergent problems are ones which do not converge on a single solution. A classic example he provides is that of education. Is discipline or freedom the best way to teach? Education researchers have debated this issue for thousand of years without converging on a solution.

He summarises by saying that convergent problems are those that are concerned with the non-living universe. While divergent problems are concerned with the universe of the living, and so there is always a degree of inner experience and freedom to contend with. According to Schumacher, the only solution to divergent problems is to transcend them, arguing that in education, for instance, that the real solution involves love or caring; love and discipline work effectively, but so does love and freedom.

Art

Schumacher in a digression from his main argument discusses the nature and importance of art. He notes that there is considerable confusion about the nature and meaning of art; but argues that this confusion dissipates when one considers art with relation to its effect on human beings. Most art fits into two categories. If art is designed to primarily affect our feelings then it is entertainment; while if art is primarily designed to affect our will then it is propaganda.

Great art is a multi-faceted phenomenon, which is not content to be merely propaganda or entertainment; but by appealing to people's higher intellectual and emotional faculties, it is designed to communicate truth. When entertainment and propaganda are transcended by, and subordinated to the communication of truth, art helps develop our higher faculties and that makes it great.

Tasks of humanity

Schumacher notes that within philosophy there is no field in more disarray than ethics. He argues that this is because most ethical debate sidesteps any "prior clarification of the purpose of human life on the earth." Schumacher believes that ethics is the study of divergent problems; which require transcendence by the individual, not a new type of ethics to be adopted by all.

He argues that there is an increasing recognition among individuals that many solutions to human problems must be made by individuals not by society, and cannot be solved by political solutions that rearrange the system. For Schumacher, the "modern attempt to live without religion has failed."

He says that the tasks of an individual can be summed up as follows:

1. Learn from society and tradition.
2. Interiorize this knowledge, learn to think for yourself and become self-directed.
3. Grow beyond the narrow concerns of the ego.

Humanity, he says, in the larger sense must learn again to subordinate the sciences of manipulation to the sciences of wisdom; a theme he further develops in his book Small Is Beautiful.