https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_care Global
concentrations of health care resources, as depicted by the number of
physicians per 10,000 individuals, by country. Data is sourced from a
World Health Statistics 2010, a WHO report.
Access to healthcare may vary across countries, communities, and individuals, influenced by social and economic conditions and health policies.
Providing health care services means "the timely use of personal health
services to achieve the best possible health outcomes". Factors to consider in terms of healthcare access include financial limitations (such as insurance coverage), geographical and logistical barriers (such as additional transportation costs and the ability to take paid time off work to use such services), sociocultural expectations, and personal limitations (lack of ability to communicate with health care providers, poor health literacy, low income).
Limitations to health care services affect negatively the use of
medical services, the efficacy of treatments, and overall outcome
(well-being, mortality rates).
Health systems are the organizations established to meet the health needs of targeted populations. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a well-functioning healthcare system requires a financing mechanism, a well-trained and adequately paid workforce, reliable information on which to base decisions and policies, and well-maintained health facilities to deliver quality medicines and technologies.
An efficient healthcare system can contribute to a significant part of a country's economy, development, and industrialization. Health care is an important determinant in promoting the general physical and mental health and well-being of people around the world. An example of this was the worldwide eradication of smallpox in 1980, declared by the WHO, as the first disease in human history to be eliminated by deliberate healthcare interventions.
While the definitions of the various types of health care vary depending on the different cultural,
political, organizational, and disciplinary perspectives, there appears
to be some consensus that primary care constitutes the first element of
a continuing health care process and may also include the provision of
secondary and tertiary levels of care. Health care can be defined as either public or private.
The emergency room is often a frontline venue for the delivery of primary medical care.
Primary care refers to the work of health professionals who act as a first point of consultation for all patients within the health care system. The primary care model supports first-contact, accessible, continuous, comprehensive and coordinated person-focused care. Such a professional would usually be a primary care physician, such as a general practitioner or family physician. Another professional would be a licensed independent practitioner such as a physiotherapist, or a non-physician primary care provider such as a physician assistant or nurse practitioner.
Depending on the locality and health system organization, the patient
may see another health care professional first, such as a pharmacist or nurse. Depending on the nature of the health condition, patients may be referred for secondary or tertiary care.
Primary care is often used as the term for the health care
services that play a role in the local community. It can be provided in
different settings, such as Urgent care centers that provide same-day appointments or services on a walk-in basis.
Primary care involves the widest scope of health care, including all ages of patients, patients of all socioeconomic and geographic origins, patients seeking to maintain optimal health, and patients with all types of acute and chronic physical, mental and social health issues, including multiple chronic diseases. Consequently, a primary care practitioner must possess a wide breadth of knowledge in many areas. Continuity is a key characteristic of primary care, as patients usually prefer to consult the same practitioner for routine check-ups and preventive care, health education, and every time they require an initial consultation about a new health problem. The International Classification of Primary Care
(ICPC) is a standardized tool for understanding and analyzing
information on interventions in primary care based on the reason for the
patient's visit.
Common chronic illnesses usually treated in primary care may include, for example, hypertension, diabetes, asthma, COPD, depression and anxiety, back pain, arthritis or thyroid dysfunction. Primary care also includes many basic maternal and child health care services, such as family planning services and vaccinations. In the United States, the 2013 National Health Interview Survey
found that skin disorders (42.7%), osteoarthritis and joint disorders
(33.6%), back problems (23.9%), disorders of lipid metabolism (22.4%),
and upper respiratory tract disease (22.1%, excluding asthma) were the
most common reasons for accessing a physician.
In the United States, primary care physicians have begun to
deliver primary care outside of the managed care (insurance-billing)
system through direct primary care which is a subset of the more familiar concierge medicine.
Physicians in this model bill patients directly for services, either on
a pre-paid monthly, quarterly, or annual basis, or bill for each
service in the office. Examples of direct primary care practices include
Foundation Health in Colorado and Qliance in Washington.
In the context of global population aging, with increasing numbers of older adults at greater risk of chronic non-communicable diseases, rapidly increasing demand for primary care services is expected in both developed and developing countries. The World Health Organization attributes the provision of essential primary care as an integral component of an inclusive primary health care strategy.
Secondary care includes acute care:
necessary treatment for a short period of time for a brief but serious
illness, injury, or other health condition. This care is often found in a
hospitalemergency department. Secondary care also includes skilled attendance during childbirth, intensive care, and medical imaging services.
The term "secondary care" is sometimes used synonymously with "hospital care". However, many secondary care providers, such as psychiatrists, clinical psychologists, occupational therapists, most dental specialties or physiotherapists,
do not necessarily work in hospitals. Some primary care services are
delivered within hospitals. Depending on the organization and policies
of the national health system, patients may be required to see a primary
care provider for a referral before they can access secondary care.
In countries that operate under a mixed market health care system, some physicians
limit their practice to secondary care by requiring patients to see a
primary care provider first. This restriction may be imposed under the
terms of the payment agreements in private or group health insurance plans. In other cases, medical specialists may see patients without a referral, and patients may decide whether self-referral is preferred.
In other countries patient self-referral to a medical specialist
for secondary care is rare as prior referral from another physician
(either a primary care physician or another specialist) is considered
necessary, regardless of whether the funding is from private insurance schemes or national health insurance.
Tertiary care is specialized consultative health care, usually for inpatients and on referral from a primary or secondary health professional, in a facility that has personnel and facilities for advanced medical investigation and treatment, such as a tertiary referral hospital.
The term quaternary care is sometimes used as an extension of tertiary care in reference to advanced levels of medicine which are highly specialized and not widely accessed. Experimental medicine and some types of uncommon diagnostic or surgical
procedures are considered quaternary care. These services are usually
only offered in a limited number of regional or national health care
centers.
Many types of health care interventions are delivered outside of health facilities. They include many interventions of public health interest, such as food safety surveillance, distribution of condoms and needle-exchange programs for the prevention of transmissible diseases.
Community rehabilitation services can assist with mobility and independence after the loss of limbs or loss of function. This can include prostheses, orthotics, or wheelchairs.
Many countries are dealing with aging populations, so one of the
priorities of the health care system is to help seniors live full,
independent lives in the comfort of their own homes. There is an entire
section of health care geared to providing seniors with help in
day-to-day activities at home such as transportation to and from
doctor's appointments along with many other activities that are
essential for their health and well-being. Although they provide home
care for older adults in cooperation, family members and care workers
may harbor diverging attitudes and values towards their joint efforts.
This state of affairs presents a challenge for the design of ICT
(information and communication technology) for home care.
Because statistics show that over 80 million Americans have taken time off of their primary employment to care for a loved one,
many countries have begun offering programs such as the Consumer
Directed Personal Assistant Program to allow family members to take care
of their loved ones without giving up their entire income.
With obesity in children rapidly becoming a major concern, health
services often set up programs in schools aimed at educating children
about nutritional eating habits, making physical education a requirement
and teaching young adolescents to have a positive self-image.
Health care ratings are ratings or evaluations
of health care used to evaluate the process of care and health care
structures and/or outcomes of health care services. This information is
translated into report cards that are generated by quality
organizations, nonprofit, consumer groups and media. This evaluation of
quality is based on measures of:
Access to healthcare may vary across countries, communities, and
individuals, influenced by social and economic conditions as well as health policies.
Providing health care services means "the timely use of personal health
services to achieve the best possible health outcomes". Factors to consider in terms of healthcare access include financial limitations (such as insurance coverage), geographical and logistical barriers (such as additional transportation costs and the ability to take paid time off work to use such services), sociocultural expectations, and personal limitations (lack of ability to communicate with health care providers, poor health literacy, low income).
Limitations to health care services affects negatively the use of
medical services, the efficacy of treatments, and overall outcome
(well-being, mortality rates).
Related sectors
Health
care extends beyond the delivery of services to patients, encompassing
many related sectors, and is set within a bigger picture of financing
and governance structures.
A health system, also sometimes referred to as health care system or healthcare system, is the organization of people, institutions, and resources that deliver health care services to populations in need.
The healthcare industry
incorporates several sectors that are dedicated to providing health
care services and products. As a basic framework for defining the
sector, the United Nations' International Standard Industrial Classification
categorizes health care as generally consisting of hospital activities,
medical and dental practice activities, and "other human health
activities." The last class involves activities of, or under the
supervision of, nurses, midwives, physiotherapists, scientific or
diagnostic laboratories, pathology clinics, residential health
facilities, patient advocates or other allied health professions.
For example, pharmaceuticals and other medical devices are the leading high technology exports of Europe and the United States. The United States dominates the biopharmaceutical field, accounting for three-quarters of the world's biotechnology revenues.
The quantity and quality of many health care interventions are
improved through the results of science, such as advanced through the medical model of health which focuses on the eradication of illness through diagnosis and effective treatment. Many important advances have been made through health research, biomedical research and pharmaceutical research, which form the basis for evidence-based medicine and evidence-based practice
in health care delivery. Health care research frequently engages
directly with patients, and as such issues for whom to engage and how to
engage with them become important to consider when seeking to actively
include them in studies. While single best practice does not exist, the
results of a systematic review on patient engagement suggest that
research methods for patient selection need to account for both patient
availability and willingness to engage.
Health services research can lead to greater efficiency and equitable delivery of health care interventions, as advanced through the social model of health and disability, which emphasizes the societal changes that can be made to make populations healthier. Results from health services research often form the basis of evidence-based policy in health care systems. Health services research
is also aided by initiatives in the field of artificial intelligence
for the development of systems of health assessment that are clinically
useful, timely, sensitive to change, culturally sensitive, low-burden, low-cost, built into standard procedures, and involve the patient.
In most countries, there is a mix of all five models, but this varies
across countries and over time within countries. Aside from financing
mechanisms, an important question should always be how much to spend on
health care. For the purposes of comparison, this is often expressed as
the percentage of GDP spent on health care. In OECD countries for every extra $1000 spent on health care, life expectancy falls by 0.4 years. A similar correlation is seen from the analysis carried out each year by Bloomberg.
Clearly this kind of analysis is flawed in that life expectancy is only
one measure of a health system's performance, but equally, the notion
that more funding is better is not supported.
In 2011, the health care industry consumed an average of 9.3 percent of the GDP or US$ 3,322 (PPP-adjusted) per capita across the 34 members of OECD countries. The US (17.7%, or US$ PPP 8,508), the Netherlands (11.9%, 5,099), France (11.6%, 4,118), Germany (11.3%, 4,495), Canada (11.2%, 5669), and Switzerland (11%, 5,634) were the top spenders, however life expectancy in total population at birth was highest in Switzerland (82.8 years), Japan and Italy (82.7), Spain and Iceland (82.4), France (82.2) and Australia
(82.0), while OECD's average exceeds 80 years for the first time ever
in 2011: 80.1 years, a gain of 10 years since 1970. The US (78.7 years)
ranges only on place 26 among the 34 OECD member countries, but has the
highest costs by far. All OECD countries have achieved universal (or
almost universal) health coverage, except the US and Mexico. (see also international comparisons.)
In the United States, where around 18% of GDP is spent on health care, the Commonwealth Fund analysis of spend and quality shows a clear correlation between worse quality and higher spending.
Expand the OECD charts below to see the breakdown:
"Government/compulsory": Government spending and compulsory health insurance.
"Voluntary": Voluntary health insurance and private funds such as
households' out-of-pocket payments, NGOs and private corporations.
They are represented by columns starting at zero. They are not stacked. The 2 are combined to get the total.
At the source you can run your cursor over the columns to get the year and the total for that country.
Click the table tab at the source to get 3 lists (one after another)
of amounts by country: "Total", "Government/compulsory", and
"Voluntary".
Health information technology (HIT) is "the application of
information processing involving both computer hardware and software
that deals with the storage, retrieval, sharing, and use of health care
information, data, and knowledge for communication and decision making."
Health information technology components:
Electronic health record (EHR) – An EHR contains a patient's comprehensive medical history, and may include records from multiple providers.
Electronic Medical Record (EMR) – An EMR contains the standard medical and clinical data gathered in one's provider's office.
Health information exchange
(HIE) – Health Information Exchange allows health care professionals
and patients to appropriately access and securely share a patient's
vital medical information electronically.
Medical practice management software
(MPM) – is designed to streamline the day-to-day tasks of operating a
medical facility. Also known as practice management software or practice
management system (PMS).
Personal health record (PHR) – A PHR is a patient's medical history that is maintained privately, for personal use.
Internet research is the practice of using Internet information, especially free information on the World Wide Web, or Internet-based resources (like Internet discussion forum) in research.
Internet research has had a profound impact on the way ideas are formed and knowledge
is created. Common applications of Internet research include personal
research on a particular subject (something mentioned on the news, a
health problem, etc.), students doing research for academic projects and papers, and journalists and other writers researching stories.
Research is a broad term. Here, it is used to mean
"looking something up (on the Web)". It includes any activity where a
topic is identified, and an effort is made to actively gather
information for the purpose of furthering understanding.
It may include some post-collection activities, like reading the
material, and analysis, such as of quality or synthesis to determine
whether it should be read in-depth.
Through searches on the Internet, pages
with some relation to a give topic can be visited and read, or be
quickly found and gathered. In addition, the Web can be used to
communicate with people with relevant interests and experience, such as experts, to learn their opinions and what they know. Communication tools used for this purpose on the Web include email (including mailing lists), online discussion forums (aka message boards, BBS's), and other personal communication facilities (instant messaging, IRC, newsgroups, etc.). can provide direct access to experts and other individuals with relevant interests and knowledge.
Internet research is distinct from library research (focusing on library-bound resources) and commercial database research (focusing on commercial databases).
While many commercial databases are delivered through the Internet, and
some libraries purchase access to library databases on behalf of their
patrons, searching such databases is generally not considered part of
“Internet research”. It should also be distinguished from scientific research
(research following a defined and rigorous process) carried out on the
Internet, from straightforward retrieving of details like a name or
phone number, and from research about the Internet.
Internet research can provide quick, immediate, and worldwide access to information, although results may be affected by unrecognized bias, difficulties in verifying a writer's credentials
(and therefore the accuracy or pertinence of the information obtained)
and whether the searcher has sufficient skill to draw meaningful results
from the abundance of material typically available.
The first resources retrieved may not be the most suitable resources to
answer a particular question. Popularity is often a factor used in
structuring Internet search results but popular information is not
always most correct or representative of the breadth of knowledge and
opinion on a topic.
While conducting commercial research fosters a deep concern with
costs, and library research fosters a concern with access, Internet
research fosters a deep concern for quality, managing the abundance of
information and with avoiding unintended bias. This is partly because
Internet research occurs in a less mature information environment: an
environment with less sophisticated / poorly communicated search skills
and much less effort in organizing information. Library and commercial
research has many search tactics and strategies unavailable on the
Internet and the library and commercial environments invest more deeply
in organizing and vetting their information.
Search tools
Search tools for finding information on the Internet include web search engines, the search engines on individual websites, the browsers' hotkey-activated feature for searching in the current page, meta search engines, web directories, and specialty search services.
A Web search allows a user to enter a search query, in the form of
keywords or a phrase, into either a search box or on a search form, and
then finds matching results and displays them on the screen. The results
are accessed from a database, using search algorithms that select web
pages based on the location and frequency of keywords on them, along
with the quality and number of external hyperlinks pointing at them. The
database is supplied with data from a web crawler
that follows the hyperlinks that connect web pages, and copies their
content, records their URLs, and other data about the page along the
way. The content is then indexed, to aid retrieval.
To view this information, a user enters their search query, in
the form of keywords or a phrase, into a search box or search form.
Then, the search engine uses its algorithms to query a database,
selecting
Websites often have a search engine of their own, for searching just
the site's content, often displayed at the top of every page. For
example, Wikipedia provides a search engine for exploring its content. A
search engine within a website allows a user to focus on its content
and find desired information with more precision than with a web search
engine. It may also provide access to information on the website for
which a web search engine does not.
Browsers' local search features
Browsers
typically provide separate input boxes to search history titles,
bookmarks, and the currently displayed web page, though the latter only
shows up when a hot key is pressed.
Browsers' search hot key
Using
a key combo (two or more keys pressed down at the same time), the user
can search the current page displayed by the browser. This is especially
useful for long articles. A common key combo for this is Ctrl+f.
Meta search engines
A
Meta search engine enables users to enter a search query once and it
runs against multiple search engines simultaneously, creating a list of
aggregated search results. Since no single search engine covers the
entire web, a meta search engine can produce a more comprehensive search
of the web. Most meta search engines automatically eliminate duplicate
search results. However, meta search engines have a significant
limitation because the most popular search engines, such as Google, are not included because of legal restrictions.
Web directories
A
Web directory organizes subjects in a hierarchical fashion that lets
users investigate the breadth of a specific topic and drill down to find
relevant links and content. Web directories can be assembled
automatically by algorithms or handcrafted. Human-edited Web directories
have the distinct advantage of higher quality and reliability, while
those produced by algorithms can offer more comprehensive coverage. The
scope of Web directories are generally broad, such as Curlie and The WWW Virtual Library, covering a wide range of subjects, while others focus on specific topics.
Specialty search tools
Specialty
search tools enable users to find information that conventional search
engines and meta search engines cannot access because the content is
stored in databases. In fact, the vast majority of information on the
web is stored in databases that require users to go to a specific site
and access it through a search form. Often, the content is generated
dynamically. As a consequence, Web crawlers are unable to index this
information. In a sense, this content is "hidden" from search engines,
leading to the term invisible or deep Web.
Specialty search tools have evolved to provide users with the means to
quickly and easily find deep Web content. These specialty tools rely on
advanced bot and intelligent agent technologies to search the deep Web and automatically generate specialty Web directories, such as the Virtual Private Library.
Website authorship
When
using the Internet for research, a large number of websites may appear
in the search results for whatever search query is entered. Each of
these sites has one or more authors or associated organizations
providing content, and the accuracy and reliability of the content may
be extremely variable. It is necessary to identify authorship of web
content so that reliability and bias can be assessed.
The author or sponsoring organization of a website may be found
in several ways. Sometimes the author or organization can be found at
the bottom of the website home page. Another way is by looking in the
‘Contact Us’ section of the website. It may be directly listed,
determined from the email address, or by emailing and asking. If the
author's name or sponsoring organization cannot be determined, one
should question the trustworthiness of the website. If the author's name
or sponsoring organization is found, an Internet search might provide
information that can be used to determine if the website is reliable and
unbiased.
Internet research software
Internet
research software captures information while performing Internet
research. This information can then be organized in various ways
included tagging and hierarchical trees. The goal is to collect
information relevant to a specific research project in one place, so
that it can be found and accessed again quickly.
These tools also allow captured content to be edited and
annotated and some allow the ability to export to other formats. Other
features common to outliners
include the ability to use full text search which aids in quickly
locating information and filters enable you to drill down to see only
information relevant to a specific query. Captured and kept information
also provides an additional backup, in case web pages and sites
disappear or are inaccessible later.
The COVID-19 recession was a global economic recession caused by COVID-19 lockdowns.
The recession began in most countries in February 2020. After a year of
global economic slowdown that saw stagnation of economic growth and
consumer activity, the COVID-19 lockdowns and other precautions taken in early 2020 drove the global economy into crisis. Within seven months, every advanced economy had fallen to recession.
The first major sign of recession was the 2020 stock market crash,
which saw major indices drop 20 to 30% in late February and March.
Recovery began in early April 2020; by April 2022, the GDP for most
major economies had either returned to or exceeded pre-pandemic levels and many market indices recovered or even set new records by late 2020.
The recession saw unusually high and rapid increases in
unemployment in many countries. By October 2020, more than 10 million
unemployment cases had been filed in the United States, swamping state-funded unemployment insurance computer systems and processes.
The United Nations (UN) predicted in April 2020 that global
unemployment would wipe out 6.7% of working hours globally in the second
quarter of 2020—equivalent to 195 million full-time workers.
In some countries, unemployment was expected to be around 10%, with
more severely affected nations from the pandemic having higher
unemployment rates. Developing countries were also affected by a drop in remittances and exacerbating COVID-19 pandemic-related famines.
Since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, there has been a large increase in corporate debt, rising from 84% of gross world product in 2009 to 92% in 2019, or about $72 trillion.
In the world's eight largest economies—China, United States, Japan,
United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and Germany—total corporate debt
was about $51 trillion in 2019, compared to $34 trillion in 2009.
If the economic climate worsens, companies with high levels of debt run
the risk of being unable to make their interest payments to lenders or refinance their debt, forcing them into restructuring. The Institute of International Finance
forecast in 2019 that, in an economic downturn half as severe as the
2008 crisis, $19 trillion in debt would be owed by non-financial firms
without the earnings to cover the interest payments on the debt they
issued. The McKinsey Global Institute warned in 2018 that the greatest risks would be to emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil, where 25–30% of bonds have been issued by high-risk companies.
2019 global economic slowdown
During 2019, the IMF reported that the world economy was going through a "synchronized slowdown", which entered into its slowest pace since the Global Financial Crisis. 'Cracks' were showing in the consumer market as global markets began to suffer through a 'sharp deterioration' of manufacturing activity. Global growth was believed to have peaked in 2017, when the world's total industrial output began to start a sustained decline in early 2018. The IMF blamed 'heightened trade and geopolitical tensions' as the main reason for the slowdown, citing Brexit and the China–United States trade war as primary reasons for slowdown in 2019, while other economists blamed liquidity issues.
In April 2019, the U.S. yield curve inverted, which sparked fears of a 2020 recession across the world. The inverted yield curve and China–U.S. trade war fears prompted a sell-off in global stock markets during March 2019, which prompted more fears that a recession was imminent.
Rising debt levels in the European Union and the United States had
always been a concern for economists. However, in 2019, that concern was
heightened during the economic slowdown, and economists began warning
of a 'debt bomb' occurring during the next financial crisis. Debt in 2019 was 50% higher than that during the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Economists have argued that this increased debt is what led to debt defaults in economies and businesses across the world during the recession. The first signs of trouble leading up to the collapse occurred in September 2019, when the US Federal Reserve began intervening in the role of investor to provide funds in the repo markets;
the overnight repo rate spiked above an unprecedented 6% during that
time, which would play a crucial factor in triggering the events that
led up to the crash.
From 2018 to early 2020, U.S. President Donald Trumpset tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. described as "unfair trade practices".
Among those trade practices and their effects had been the growing
trade deficit, the theft of intellectual property, and the forced
transfer of American technology to China.
Trump's tariffs caused significant damage to the economy of countries around the world.
In the United States, it brought struggles for farmers and
manufacturers and higher prices for consumers, which resulted in the
U.S. manufacturing industry entering into a "mild recession" during
2019.
In other countries it also caused economic damage, including violent
protests in Chile and Ecuador due to transport and energy price surges,
though some countries had benefited from increased manufacturing to fill
the gaps. It also led to stock market instability. Governments around
the world took steps to address some of the damage caused by the
tariffs.
During the recession, the downturn of consumerism and manufacturing
from the trade war is believed to have worsened the economic crisis.
In Europe, economies were hampered due to uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union, better known as Brexit.
British and EU growth stagnated during 2019 leading up to Brexit,
mainly due to uncertainty in the UK caused by political figures and
movements aiming to oppose, reverse or otherwise impede the 2016 Brexit
Referendum, resulting in delays and extensions.
Many businesses left the United Kingdom to move into the EU, which
resulted in trade loss and economic downturn for both EU members and the
UK.
In August 2021, it was reported that China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group, was entrenched in $300 billion (~$333 billion in 2023) of debt. As the company missed several payment deadlines in September 2021,
it seemed likely the company would fail without government
intervention, as stocks within the company having already plummeted by
85%. Since China is the second largest economy in the world and property
makes up a large amount of their GDP, it threatens to destabilise the
COVID-19 recession even further, especially considering China is
currently deep within a housing bubble eclipsing the United States housing bubble that led to the previous global recession.
2021–2023 global energy crisis and sanctions on Russia
The 2021–2023 global energy shortage is the most recent in a series
of cyclical energy shortages experienced over the last fifty years. The
Russian military buildup outside Ukraine and subsequent invasion have
also threatened the energy supply from Russia to Europe, while
increasing the cost of oil causing European countries to diversify their
source of energy import.
The economic fallout from the 2021–2023 global energy crisis and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has had an impact on oil prices worldwide,
most notably the unprecedented measures taken on the SWIFT System and
Tit-for-Tat Responses to comprehensive sanctions from other countries.
Preceding an official announcement regarding import bans on 8 March
2022, there were reports of proposed bans regarding Russian oil and gas
imports by the US and the EU.
This was in addition to the already existing actions taken by
American companies on multiple Russian entities with ties to the Russian
government, with Russia's trading status also being called into
question on security grounds. Prior to the ban having been implemented,
the value of the Russian ruble had dropped by record levels as the price
of oil hit a 14-year high.
The talks about whether or not to implement an International Energy
Embargo were already reported to have been impacting the Russian oil
market due to pre-existing fears by investors
by 10 March, there were reports stating that Russia's debt rating was
downgraded by Fitch from "B" to "C", indicating a potential default was
imminent. This ultimately came to pass after 27 June with the 2022 Russian debt default.
The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disruptive pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. When the pandemic first arose in late 2019 and more consequently in 2020, the world was going through economic stagnation and significant consumer downturn. Most economists believed a recession, though one which would not be particularly severe, was coming. As a result of the rapid spread of the pandemic, economies across the world initiated population lockdowns to curb the spread of the pandemic. This resulted in the collapse of various industries and consumerism all at once, which put major pressure on banks and employment. This caused a stock market crash and, thereafter, the recession. With new social distancing measures taken in response to the pandemic, lockdowns occurred across much of the world economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic was a pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); the outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, declared to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern from 30 January 2020 to 5 May 2023, and recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020. The response to the pandemic has led to severe global economic disruption, the postponement or cancellation of sporting, religious, political and cultural events, and widespread shortages of supplies exacerbated by panic buying. Schools, universities and colleges have closed
either on a nationwide or local basis in 63 countries, affecting
approximately 47 percent of the world's student population. Many
governments have restricted or advised against all non-essential travel
to and from countries and areas affected by the outbreak.
However, the virus is already spreading within communities in large
parts of the world, with many not knowing where or how they were
infected.
Scanning electron microscope image of SARS-CoV-2 (centre, yellow)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences beyond the
spread of the disease and efforts to quarantine it. As the pandemic has
spread around the globe, concerns have shifted from supply-side
manufacturing issues to decreased business in the services sector.
The pandemic is considered unanimously as a major factor in causing the
recession. The pandemic has affected nearly every major industry
negatively, was one of the main causes of the stock market crash and has
resulted in major restrictions of social liberties and movement.
The COVID-19 crisis affected worldwide economic activity, resulting in a 7% drop in global commercial commerce in 2020. While GVCs
have persisted, several demand and supply mismatches caused by the
pandemic have resurfaced throughout the recovery period and have been
spread internationally through trade.
During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses lost 25% of their revenue and 11% of their workforce, with contact-intensive sectors and SMEs
being particularly heavily impacted. However, considerable policy
assistance helped to avert large-scale bankruptcies, with just 4% of
enterprises declaring for insolvency or permanently shutting at the time of the COVID wave.
Aid to people and businesses in the form of employment retention
schemes, subsidies, tax relief, and loan guarantee programs totalled
roughly 9% of GDP, with substantial cross-country variance, which might
reflect policy space and development levels. In the face of considerable
liquidity challenges, debt moratoriums and revisions to bankruptcy rules also safeguarded businesses and people during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In response to the pandemic's infection rates and death toll,
countries in the Western Balkans, the Eastern Neighborhood, and Central
and Eastern Europe faced severe recessions.
While stay-at-home orders
clearly affect many types of business, especially those that provide
in-person services (including retail stores, restaurants and hotels,
entertainment venues and museums, medical offices, and beauty salons and
spas), government orders are not the sole pressure on those businesses.
In the United States, people began to change their economic behavior
10–20 days before their local governments declared stay-at-home orders, and by May, changes in individuals' rates of movement (according to smartphone data) did not always correlate with local laws.
According to a 2021 study, only 7% of the decline in economic activity
was due to government-imposed restrictions on activity; the vast
majority of the decline was due to individuals voluntarily disengaging
from commerce.
The reduction in the demand for travel and the lack of factory activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted demand for oil, causing its price to fall.
The Russian–Saudi Arabia oil price war further worsened the recession,
due to it crashing the price of oil. In mid-February, the International Energy Agency forecasted that oil demand growth in 2020 would be the smallest since 2011. A slump in Chinese demand resulted in a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to discuss a potential cut in production to balance the loss in demand.
The cartel initially made a tentative agreement to cut oil production
by 1.5 million barrels per day following a meeting in Vienna on 5March 2020, which would bring the production levels to the lowest it has been since the Iraq War.
After OPEC and Russia failed to agree on oil production cuts on 6March and Saudi Arabia and Russia both announced increases in oil production on 7 March, oil prices fell by 25 percent. On 8March,
Saudi Arabia unexpectedly announced that it would increase production
of crude oil and sell it at a discount (of $6–8 a barrel) to customers
in Asia, the US, and Europe, following the breakdown of negotiations, as
Russia resisted calls to cut production. The biggest discounts targeted
Russian oil customers in northwestern Europe.
Prior to the announcement, the price of oil had gone down by more
than 30% since the start of the year, and upon Saudi Arabia's
announcement, it dropped a further 30 percent, though later recovered
somewhat. Brent Crude, an oil market used to price two-thirds of the world's crude oil supplies, experienced the largest drop since the 1991 Gulf War on the night of 8March. Concurrently, the price of West Texas Intermediate, another market used as a benchmark for global oil prices, fell to its lowest level since February 2016. Energy expert Bob McNally noted, "This is the first time since 1930 and '31 that a massive negative demand shock has coincided with a supply shock;" in that case it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act precipitating a collapse in international trade during the Great Depression, coinciding with discovery of the East Texas Oil Field during the Texas oil boom.
Fears surrounding the Russian–Saudi Arabian oil price war caused a
plunge in U.S. stocks, and have had a particular impact on American
producers of shale oil.
In early April 2020, Saudi Arabia and Russia both agreed to cut their oil production. Reuters
reported that "If Saudi Arabia failed to rein in output, US senators
called on the White House to impose sanctions on Riyadh, pull out US troops from the kingdom and impose import tariffs on Saudi oil." The price of oil briefly went negative on 20 April 2020.
Movement of the DJIA between January 2017 and December 2020.The
Federal Reserve balance sheet expanded greatly through quantitative
easing on multiple occurrences between 2008 and mid-2020. During
September 2019, there was a spike in the overnight repo interest rate,
which caused the Federal Reserve to recommence quantitative easing; the
balance sheet expanded parabolically after the pandemic declaration.
The 2020 stock market crash began on 20 February 2020, although the economic aspects of the COVID-19 recession began to materialize in late 2019. Due to COVID-19 lockdowns, global markets, banks and businesses were all facing crises not seen since the Great Depression in 1929.
Three days after Black Monday I there was another drop, Black
Thursday, where stocks across Europe and North America fell more than
9%. Wall Street experienced its largest single-day percentage drop since Black Monday in 1987, and the FTSE MIB of the Borsa Italiana fell nearly 17%, becoming the worst-hit market during Black Thursday.
Despite a temporary rally on 13 March (with markets posting their best
day since 2008), all three Wall Street indexes fell more than 12% when
markets re-opened on 16 March. During this time, one benchmark stock market index in all G7 countries and 14 of the G20 countries had been declared to be in Bear markets.
The United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 2000 points, described by The News International as "the biggest ever fall in intraday trading". The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a number of trading "circuit breakers" to curb panicked selling. Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%. The Nasdaq Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points.The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%. Oil prices fell 22%, and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell below 0.40% and 1.02% respectively. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day off by more than 10%. Brazil's IBOVESPA gave up 12%, erasing over 15 months of gains for the index. Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3%—its biggest daily drop since 2008, though it rebounded later in the day. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis. BP and Shell Oil experienced intraday price drops of nearly 20% The FTSE MIB, CAC 40, and DAX tanked as well, with Italy affected the most as the COVID-19 pandemic in the country continues. They fell 11.2%, 8.4%, and 7.9% respectively. The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year.
In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and
Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks,
entering bear market territory. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%. In China, the CSI 300 Index lost 3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index sank 4.2%. In Pakistan, the PSX saw the largest ever intra-day plunge in the country's history, losing 2,302 points or 6.0%. The market closed with the KSE 100 Index down 3.1%. In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1,942 points lower at 35,635 while the NSE Nifty 50 was down by 538 points to 10,451.
The Washington Post posited that pandemic-related turmoil could spark a collapse of the corporate debt bubble, sparking and worsening a recession. The Central Bank of Russia announced that it would suspend foreign exchange market purchases in domestic markets for 30 days, while the Central Bank of Brazil
auctioned an additional $3.465 billion the foreign exchange market in
two separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased its foreign
exchange auctions program from $20 billion to $30 billion. After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2December, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending, while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well.
Black Thursday (12 March)
Black Thursday was a global stock market crash
on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. US
stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall
since the 1987 stock market crash. Following Black Monday three days earlier, Black Thursday was attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and a lack of investor confidence in US President Donald Trump after he declared a 30-day travel ban against the Schengen Area. Additionally, the European Central Bank, under the lead of Christine Lagarde, decided to not cut interest rates despite market expectations, leading to a drop in S&P 500 futures of more than 200 points in less than an hour.
Bank Indonesia announced open market purchases of Rp4 trillion (or $276.53 million) in government bonds, while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo
stated that Bank Indonesia's open market purchases of government bonds
had climbed to Rp130 trillion on the year and Rp110 trillion since the
end of January. Despite declining to cut its deposit rate, the European Central Bank increased its asset purchases by €120 billion (or $135 billion), while the Federal Reserve announced $1.5 trillion in open market purchases. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a A$17.6 billion fiscal stimulus package. The Reserve Bank of India announced that it would conduct a six-month $2 billion currency swap for U.S. dollars, while the Reserve Bank of Australia announced A$8.8 billion in repurchases of government bonds. The Central Bank of Brazil auctioned $1.78 billion Foreign exchange spots.
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed down (with the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the IDX Composite of the Indonesia Stock Exchange falling to more than 20% below their 52-week highs), European stock markets closed down 11% (with the FTSE 100 Index on the London Stock Exchange, the DAX on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the CAC 40 on the Euronext Paris, and the FTSE MIB on the Borsa Italiana all closing more than 20% below their most recent peaks), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down an additional 10% (eclipsing the one-day record set on 9March),
the NASDAQ Composite was down 9.4%, and the S&P 500 was down 9.5%
(with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also falling to more than 20% below
their peaks), and the declines activated the trading curb at the New York Stock Exchange for the second time that week. Oil prices dropped by 8%, while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities increased to 0.86% and 1.45% (and their yield curve finished normal).
Crash
The US's Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash, as did the UK's FTSE 100, which fell 10.87%. The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 12%, its largest one-day drop since 1940. The FTSE MIB Italian index closed with a 16.92% loss, the worst in its history. Germany's DAX fell 12.24% and France's CAC 12.28%. In Brazil, the IBOVESPA plummeted 14.78%, after trading in the B3 was halted twice within the intraday; it also moved below the 70,000 mark before closing above it. The NIFTY 50 on the National Stock Exchange of India fell 7.89% to more than 20% below its most recent peak, while the BSE SENSEX on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 2,919 (or 8.18%) to 32,778. The benchmark stock market index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 9.3%. The MERVAL on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange fell 9.5% to 19.5% on the week. 12 March was the second time, following 9March, that the 7%-drop circuit breaker was triggered since being implemented in 2013.
In Colombia, the peso set an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, when it traded above 4000 pesos for the first time on record. The Mexican peso also set an all-time record low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 22.99 pesos.
Black Monday II (16 March)
Over
the preceding weekend, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority announced a
$13 billion credit-line package to small- and medium-sized companies, while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a fiscal stimulus package.
The Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds rate
target to 0%–0.25%, lower reserve requirements to zero, and begin a
$700 billion quantitative easing program.
Dow futures tumbled more than 1,000 points and Standard & Poor's 500 futures dropped 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. On Monday 16 March, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed down (with the S&P/ASX 200 setting a one-day record fall of 9.7%, collapsing 30% from the peak that was reached on 20 February).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and the S&P
500 all fell by 12–13%, with the Dow eclipsing the one-day drop record
set on 12 March and the trading curb being activated at the beginning of
trading for the third time (after 9and 12 March). Oil prices fell by 10%, while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.76% and 1.38% respectively (while their yield curve remained normal for the third straight trading session).
The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 82.69 on 16 March, the highest ever closing for the index (though there were higher intraday peaks in 2008). Around noon on 16 March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would conduct a $500 billion repurchase through the afternoon of that day. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced an additional Rp22 trillion in tax-related fiscal stimulus. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its reserve requirement from 8% to 6%.
The Bank of Japan announced that it would not cut its bank rate lower
from minus 0.1% but that it would conduct more open market purchases of Exchange-traded funds. After cutting its bank rate by 25 basis points on 7February, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would keep its bank rate at 6%, while the Bank of Korea announced that it would cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%. The Central Bank of Chile cut its benchmark rate, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 75 basis points to 0.25%. The Czech National Bank announced that it would cut its bank rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.
Impact by region or country
Africa
In April 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa appeared poised to enter its first recession in 25 years, but this time for a longer duration.
The World Bank predicted that overall sub-Saharan Africa's economy would shrink by 2.1%–5.1% during 2020. African countries cumulatively owe $152 billion to China from loans
taken 2000–2018; as of May 2020, China was considering granting deadline
extensions for repayment, and in June 2020, Chinese leaderXi Jinping said that some interest-free loans to certain countries would be forgiven.
Botswana
Botswana has been affected by sharp falls in the diamond trade, tourism and other sectors.
Egypt
The Economy of Egypt
suffered from the COVID-19 recession. Tourism, which employs one in ten
Egyptians and contributes about 5% of the GDP, has largely stopped,
while remittances from migrant workers abroad (9% of GDP) are also
expected to fall. The cheap fuel prices and slower demand have also led some shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, and instead opt for traveling by the Cape of Good Hope, leading to reduced transit fees for the government. However, despite this, Egypt were one of the few African countries to have a positive growth rate during the recession.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia is heavily dependent for export income on its national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, which has announced suspensions on 80 flight routes. Exports of flowers and other agricultural products have dropped sharply.
Namibia
Namibia's central bank sees the nation's economy shrinking by 6.9% This will be the biggest shrink of GDP since its independence in 1990. The tourism and hospitality industries has accounted for N$26 billion being lost as 125 000 jobs have been affected. The central bank also announced that the diamond-mining sector will decline by 14.9% in 2020, while uranium mining may shrink 22%.
Zambia
Zambia faced a severe debt crisis.
Almost half the national budget goes towards interest payments, with
questions about whether the country will be able to make all future
payments.
Argentina entered its 9th sovereign default in history due to the recession.
The government has proposed taking over one of the largest
agroexporting companies Vicentín S.A.I.C after it incurred in a debt of
more than $1.35 billion.
Belize
The fall in travel was expected to drive Belize into a deep recession in 2020.In
2020, the economy contracted 13.4% with the sharpest declines observed
in net foreign demand and private consumption. On an annualized base,
the unemployment rate increased 19.1% from September 2019 to September
2020.
The Brazilian government forecast that its economy will experience
its biggest crash since 1900, with a gross domestic product contraction
of 4.7%.
At the first trimester of 2020 the gross domestic product was 1.5%
smaller than the GDP of the first trimester of 2019, and it decreased to
the same level of 2012.
On 9 April 2020, at least 600,000 businesses went bankrupt, and 9 million people were fired.
Even with the pandemic, the state of São Paulo was the only Brazilian state to see a GDP growth in 2020, of about 0.4%.
Total unemployment increased by 3 million and total hours worked fell
by 30% between February and April 2020. Canadian manufacturing sales in
March fell to the lowest level since mid-2016, as sales by auto
manufacturers and parts suppliers plunged more than 30%.
Mexico's outlook was already poor before the COVID-19 pandemic, with a mild recession in 2019. The economic development plans of president Andrés Manuel López Obrador were predicated on revenue from the state oil company Pemex, but the oil price collapse has now raised doubts on those plans.
Beyond oil, the country's economy also relies on tourism, trade with
the United States, as well as remittances, which all are also being
affected. All of this leading to what could be Mexico's worst recession in a century, and the worst in Latin America after Venezuela.
Beside this prediction, Mexico's economy shrinking in 2020 was less
than that of Venezuela, Peru, Panama, Argentina and equal to that of
Ecuador.
The National Bureau of Economic Research,
considered the arbiter of recession declarations, found the United
States recession began in February 2020 and ended roughly two months
later, in April 2020, making it the shortest recession on records dating
to 1854.
Before the pandemic, there were signs of recession. The US yield curve inverted in mid-2019, usually indicative of a forthcoming recession.
Starting in March 2020, job loss was rapid. About 16 million jobs were lost in the United States in the three weeks ending on 4April.
Unemployment claims reached a record high, with 3.3 million claims made
in the week ending on 21 March. (The previous record had been 700,000
from 1982.)
The week ending 28 March, however, unemployment claims set another
record at 6.7 million and by 13 May, new claims had topped 35 million.
On 8 May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a U-3 unemployment
(official unemployment) figure of 14.7%, the highest level recorded
since 1941, with U-6 unemployment (total unemployed plus marginally
attached and part-time underemployed workers) reaching 22.8%.
For individual states, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
the highest U-3 unemployment occurred in April 2020 in Nevada (30.1%),
Michigan (24.0%) and Hawaii (23.8%), levels not seen since the Great Depression. This was followed by Rhode Island in April (18.1%), Massachusetts in June (17.7%), and Ohio in April (17.6%).
By December 2020, unemployment rates for the highest three states were
recovering: Nevada (9.2%), Michigan (7.5%), and Hawaii (9.3%), with
seven other states having recovered to below 4.0%.
However, a high percentage of those gains may have been part-time work,
job gains in May 2020 were reported to be 40% part-time.
Restaurant patronage fell sharply across the country, and major airlines reduced their operations on a large scale. The Big Three car manufacturers all halted production. In April, construction of new homes dropped by 30%, reaching the lowest level in five years.
Approximately 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance from February to May 2020 after losing their jobs.
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index increased sharply from below zero to 5.8 during March 2020. The United States Department of Commerce reported that consumer spending
fell by 7.5 percent during the month of March 2020. It was the largest
monthly drop since record keeping began in 1959. As a result, the
country's gross domestic product reduced at a rate of 4.8 percent during
the first quarter of 2020.
The largest economic stimulus legislation in American history, a $2 trillion (~$2.32 trillion in 2023) package called the CARES Act, was signed into law on 27 March 2020.
The unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February to 14.7%
in April, representing a decline of more than 25 million people
employed, plus another 8 million persons that exited the labor force.
Job declines were focused on industries that rely on "in-person
interactions" such as retail, education, health services, leisure and
hospitality. For example, 8 of the 17 million leisure and hospitality
jobs were lost in March and April.
The economic impact was expected to hit smaller and newer businesses harder, as they typically have less financial cushion.
Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending fell 17% from February
to April, as social distancing reached its peak. In April, car and light
truck sales were 49% below the late 2019 monthly average. Mortgage
applications fell 30% in April 2020 versus April 2019.
Real GDP was forecast to fall at a nearly 38% annual rate in the
second quarter, or 11.2% versus the prior quarter, with a return to
positive quarter-to-quarter growth of 5.0% in Q3 and 2.5% in Q4 2020.
However, real GDP was not expected to regain its Q4 2019 level until
2022 or later.
The unemployment rate was forecast to average 11.5% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021.
The COVID recession increased wealth and racial inequality. According to a study, the pandemic drove 8 million Americans into poverty between May and September 2020. On 30 July 2020, it was reported that the U.S. 2nd quarter gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 33%.
Latin America
The recession caused by COVID-19 is expected to be the worst in the history of Latin America.
Latin American countries are expected to fall into a "lost decade", with
Latin America's GDP returning to 2010 levels, falling by 9.1%.
The amount by which the GDP is expected to fall per country is listed
below.
Country
GDP contraction
Venezuela
−26%
Peru
−13%
Brazil
−10.5%
Argentina
−9.2%
Ecuador
−9%
Mexico
−9%
El Salvador
−8.6%
Nicaragua
−8.3%
Cuba
−8%
Chile
−7.9%
Panama
−6.5%
Honduras
−6.1%
Colombia
−5.6%
Costa Rica
−5.5%
Dominican Republic
−5.3%
Bolivia
−5.2%
Uruguay
−5%
Guatemala
−4.1%
Paraguay
−2.3%
Other sources may expect different figures.
In Panama, COVID-19 is expected to subtract US$5.8 billion from Panama's GDP.
Aiding Chile's downfall is reduced demand for copper from the US and
China, and an increase in price volatility, as consequences of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Australia before the recession was suffering from an unusually severe and expensive bushfire season which damaged the economy and domestic trade routes.
Not only that, but Australia had experienced significant slowdown in
their economic growth, with economists in late 2019 saying that
Australia was 'teetering on the edge of a recession'.
As a result of this and the effects of the recession, analysts in
Australia expected a deep recession with at least 10.0% of the able
working population becoming unemployed according to the Australian
treasury and at least a 6.7% GDP retraction according to the IMF.
In April 2020, a water consultant predicted a shortage of rice and
other staples during the pandemic unless farmers' water allocations were
changed.
The unemployment level of 5.1% was projected to rise to a 25-year
high of 10.0%, according to Treasury data released in April 2020. The JobSeeker Payment
unemployment benefit had an A$550 per fortnight Coronavirus Supplement
added to it from April to September, when it reduced to A$250, then to
A$150 after 31 December. The Supplement ceased on 31 March 2021.
As of April 2020, up to a million people have been laid off due to effects of the recession. Over 280,000 individuals applied for unemployment support at the peak day.
On 23 July 2020, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg
delivered a quarterly budget update stating the government had
implemented a $289 billion (~$335 billion in 2023) economic support
package. As a result, the 2020–21 budget will record a $184 billion
(~$213 billion in 2023) deficit, the largest since WWII. Australia will
maintain their triple A credit rating. Net debt will increase to
$677.1 billion (~$751 billion in 2023) at 20 June 2021. Further, real
GDP was forecast to have fallen sharply by 7% in the June quarter with
unemployment anticipated to peak at 9.25% in the December quarter.
However, due to the further reinstatement of restrictions on Victoria,
notably stage 4 restrictions, national unemployment was expected to
reach 11%.
In August 2020, national unemployment peaked at 7.5%, falling to 5.6% by April 2021.
In December 2020, it was announced Australia had pulled out of
recession after experiencing a 3.3% growth in GDP in the September
quarter. Treasurer Frydenberg however stated the effects of the
recession has had lasting impacts and the recovery is far from over.
Australia is set to avoid an economic depression as once forecast
earlier in the year, though GDP is still likely to have experienced a
contraction from 2019 figures.
Bangladesh is one of the few countries who had a generally positive gdp growth during the pandemic. The Bangladeshi economy is heavily dependent on the garment industry and remittances from migrant workers. The garment industry has been heavily affected, having already been contracting in 2019. Remittances in turn expected to fall 22 percent.
As a result of the recession, China's economy contracted for the first time in almost 50 years. The national GDP for the first quarter of 2020 dropped 6.8% year-on-year, 10.0% quarter on quarter, and the GDP for Hubei Province dropped 39.2% in the same period.
In May 2020, Chinese PremierLi Keqiang announced that, for the first time in history, the central government
would not set an economic growth target for 2020, with the economy
having contracted by 6.8% compared to 2019 and China facing an
"unpredictable" time. However, the government also stated an intention
to create 9 million new urban jobs until the end of 2020.
In October 2020, it was announced that China's third-quarter GDP
has grown with 4.9%, hereby missing analysts expectations (which was set
at 5.2%). However, it does show that China's economy has indeed been
steadily recovering from the coronavirus shock that caused decades-low
growth. To fuel economic growth, the country set aside hundreds of billions of dollars for major infrastructure projects and used population tracking policies and enforced the stringent lockdown to contain the virus. It is the only major economy that is expected to grow in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.
By December 2020, China's economic recovery was accelerating amid increasing demand for manufactured goods. The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research
projected that China's "skilful management of the pandemic" would cause
the Chinese economy to surpass the United States and become the world's
largest economy by nominal GDP in 2028, five years sooner than
previously expected. China's economy expanded by 2.3% in 2020.
In the first quarter of 2020, China's economy shrank by 6.8% due
to the nationwide lockdown at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. With
the help of strict virus containment measures and emergency corporate
relief, the economy has steadily recovered since the pandemic. China's
economy grew by a record 18.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021
compared with the same period last year.
The urban unemployment rate reached a 21-month all-time high of 6.1% in April 2022 amid the impact of the epidemic.
Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the second
quarter of 2020 fell 3.3 percent from the previous quarter. This is the
second consecutive quarter of negative growth following the first
quarter (−1.3 percent). It was the lowest performance in 22 years and
three months since the first quarter of 1998 (−6.8 percent) after the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Experts cited exports, which account for 40 percent of the Korean
economy, as the worst performance report in 57 years since 1963, as the
main factor for negative growth.
The employment market situation is also a big blow. According to
the National Statistical Office, the number of employed people decreased
by more than 350,000 in June from a year earlier due to the shock of
the job market caused by the spread of COVID-19. The unemployment rate
soared to the highest since 1999 when the statistics began to be
compiled. In particular, the number of economically active young people
decreased a lot, and the number of unemployed reached 1.66 million, up
120,000 from a year earlier.
Fiji
On 18 March, the Reserve Bank of Fiji reduced its overnight policy rate (OPR) and predicted the domestic economy to fall into a recession after decades of economic growth.
Later on 25 June, the national bank predicted the Fijian economy to
contract severely this year due to falling consumption and investment
associated with ongoing job-losses. Annual inflation remained in negative territory in May (−1.7%) and is forecast to edge up to 1.0 percent by year-end.
The OPR is the key interest rate used by the Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) to officially indicate and communicate its monetary policy stance. A reduction in the OPR signifies an easing of monetary policy.
The IMF predicted the growth rate of India in the financial year of 2020–21 as 1.9%, but in the following financial year, they predict it to be 7.4%. IMF also predicted that India and China are the only two major economies that will maintain positive growth rates. However the prediction later turned out to be wrong.
On 24 June 2020, IMF revised India's growth rate to −4.5%, a
historic low. However, IMF said India's economy is expected to bounce
back in 2021 with a robust six percent growth rate.
On 31 August 2020, the National Statistical Office (NSO) released
the data, which revealed that the country's GDP contracted by 23.9 per
cent in the first quarter of 2020–21 financial year. The economic
contraction followed the severe lockdown to contain the COVID-19
pandemic, where an estimated 140 million jobs were lost. According to
the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, it was the worst fall in history.
Iraq
As 90% of the government income comes from oil, it will be extremely heavily hit by the drop in prices.
The employment market has also taken a huge hit. The excessive
dependence on oil exposes the country to macroeconomic volatility. As of
January 2021, Iraq's unemployment rate was more than 10 percentage
points higher than its pre-COVID-19 level of 12.7%.
In Japan, the 2019 4th quarter GDP shrank 7.1% from the previous quarter due to two main factors. One is the government's raise in consumption tax from 8% to 10% despite opposition from the citizens. The other is the devastating effects of Typhoon Hagibis, the strongest typhoon in decades to strike mainland Japan. It was the costliest Pacific typhoon on record. Japanese exports to South Korea were also negatively affected by the Japan–South Korea trade dispute, lowering aggregate demand
and GDP growth. This all adds to the effect of the pandemic on people's
lives and the economy, the prime minister unveiling a 'massive"
stimulus amounting to 20% of GDP.
Since August 2019, Lebanon had been experiencing a major economic
crisis that was caused by an increase in the official exchange rate
between the Lebanese pound and the United States dollar. This was further escalated by a large explosion in Beirut, which delivered critical damage to the Port of Beirut, harming Lebanese trade, and protests throughout the country.
Malaysia
The COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia has had a significant impact on the Malaysian economy, leading to the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit
(MYR) and the decline in the country's gross domestic product. The
pandemic also adversely affected several key sectors including
entertainment, markets, retail, hospitality, and tourism. Besides
shortages in goods and services, many businesses had to cope with social
distancing and lockdown restrictions, which affected their operations
and revenue. The pandemic also drew attention to workplace safety and
the exploitation of migrant workers working in Malaysian industries.
Nepal
As
millions of Nepalis work outside of the country, at least hundreds of
thousands are expected to return due to layoffs abroad, in what has been
labelled a "crisis" that may "overwhelm the Nepali state".[318]
In April 2020, the New Zealand Treasury projected that the country
could experience an unemployment rate of 13.5 percent if the country
remained in lockdown for four weeks, with a range of 17.5 and 26 percent
if the lockdown was extended. Prior to the lockdown, the unemployment
rate was at 4.2%. Finance Minister Grant Robertson vowed that the Government would keep the unemployment rate below 10%.
In the second quarter of 2020, unemployment fell 0.2 percentage points
to 4 percent; however, the under-use rate (a measure of spare capacity
in the labor market) rose to a record 12 percent, up 1.6 percentage
points from the previous quarter, and working hours fell by 10 percent.
The GDP of New Zealand contracted 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
The country officially entered a recession after a GDP contraction of
12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 which was reported by Statistics New Zealand in September.
The Philippines' real GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of
2020, the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 1998, a year
after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The economy slipped in technical recession after a 16.5% decline was recorded in the second quarter.
The government projects that the GDP will contract by 5.5% in
2020. The First Metro Investment Corp projects a year-on-year GDP
decline of 8–9%. The decline is led by a decrease in household spending
which typically accounts for 70% of the country's GDP and hesitancy on
spending due to COVID-19 community quarantine measures.
In its annual economic performance report released on 28 January 2021, the Philippine Statistics Authority
reported that the Philippines' GDP contracted by 9.5% in 2020, its
worst contraction since World War II. The last full-year contraction was
during the 1997 Asian financial crisis where the GDP grew by −0.5%. The 2020 contraction was also worse than the 7% contraction in 1984.
Property investment sales in Singapore fell 37 per cent to
$3.02 billion in the first quarter of this year from the previous three
months as the pandemic took its toll on investor sentiment, a report
from Cushman & Wakefield on 13 April showed.
On 28 April, the Monetary Authority of Singapore
(MAS) said in its latest half-yearly macroeconomic review Singapore
will enter into a recession this year because of the blow from the
COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in job losses and lower wages, with
"significant uncertainty" over how long and intense the downturn will
be. Depending on how the pandemic evolves and the efficacy of policy
responses around the world, Singapore's economic growth could even dip
below the forecast range of minus four to minus one per cent to record
its worst-ever contraction.
On 29 April, the Ministry of Manpower
(MOM) said that total employment excluding foreign domestic workers
dropped by 19,900 in the first three months of the year, mainly due to a
significant reduction in foreign employment. Among Singapore citizens,
the unemployment rate increased from 3.3 per cent to 3.5 per cent, while
the resident unemployment rate, which includes permanent residents,
increased from 3.2 per cent to 3.3 per cent.
On 14 May, Singapore Airlines
(SIA) posted its first annual net loss in 48 years – a net loss of
S$732.4 million in the fourth quarter, reversing from a net profit of
S$202.6 million in the corresponding quarter a year ago.
Europe
The European Purchasing Managers' Index, a key indicator of economic activity, crashed to a record-low of 13.5 in April 2020. Normally, any figure below 50 is a sign of economic decline.
Armenia
The Armenian economy shrank sharply by 7.6%, erasing all the gains from 2019.
Belarus
The
Belarusian economy is being negatively affected by the loss of Russian
oil subsidies, and the drop in price of Belarus's refined oil products.
Belgium
The
Belgian economy exhibited low real GDP growth prior to the onset of the
public health crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. An already
weakened economy, Belgium experienced a contraction of its real GDP
during the first half of 2020 with a decline of 2.8% in the first
quarter and an 11.4% contraction in the second quarter,
suggesting a recession. After a trough in the second quarter, the
economy bounced back and experience an 11.8% expansion of its real GDP
(insert OECD GDP link using the reference button). That recovery was
followed by a minor contraction of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020
and a recovery the first quarter of 2021 with an economic expansion of
about 2%.
Despite the instability of Belgium’s GDP in 2020, the labor market
showed resilience avoiding a more significant decline as observed in
other countries at the time. The unemployment rate in Belgium remained
relatively steady during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the
previous quarter and it only increased by about a percentage point in
April 2024 compared to the 5.2% unemployment in October 2019.
Subsequently to the contraction of GDP in the first quarter of 2020,
the unemployment rate peaked with 6.4% in august 2020 but receded to
6.8% at the end of the year.
The business cycle fluctuations of the Belgian economy did not bring
significant changes to inflation rates which remained rather low since
the end of 2019 and through 2020.
France
France has been hit hard by the pandemic, with two months of 'strict lockdown' imposed before mid-year. On 8 April 2020, the Bank of France declared that the French economy was in recession, shrinking by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
Italy's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 11.2%, with 51% fearing unemployment in March.
The preliminary estimate of 1Q20 Italian GDP showed a 4.7%
quarter on quarter fall (−4.8% YoY), a much steeper decline than in any
quarter either during the Great Recession or the European debt crisis.
On 19 March 2020 the Bank of England cut the interest rate to a historic low of 0.1%. Quantitative easing was extended by £200 billion to a total of £645 billion since the start of the Great Recession. A day later, the Chancellor of the ExchequerRishi Sunak announced the government would spend £350 billion to bolster the economy. On 24 March non-essential business and travel were officially banned in the UK to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
In April the Bank agreed to extend the government's overdraft facility
from £370 million to an undisclosed amount for the first time since
2008. Household spending fell 41.2% in April 2020 compared with April 2019. April's Purchasing Managers' Index score was 13.8 points, the lowest since records began in 1996, indicating a severe downturn of business activity.
By the start of May, 23% of the British workforce had been
furloughed (temporarily laid off). Government schemes were launched to
help furloughed employees and self-employed workers whose incomes had
been affected by the outbreak, effectively paying 80% of their regular
incomes, subject to eligibility.
The Bank estimated that the UK economy could shrink 30% in the first
half of 2020 and that unemployment was likely to rise to 9% in 2021. Economic growth was already weak before the COVID-19 pandemic, with 0% growth in the fourth quarter of 2019. On 13 May, the Office for National Statistics
announced a 2% fall in GDP in the first quarter of 2020, including a
then-record 5.8% monthly fall in March. The Chancellor warned it was
very likely the UK was going through a significant recession.
HSBC,
which is based in London, reported $4.3 billion (~$4.99 billion in
2023) in pre-tax profits during the first half of 2020; this was only
one-third of the profits it had taken in the first half of the previous
year.
On 12 August, it was announced that the UK had entered into recession for the first time in 11 years.
During the pandemic, exports of many food and drink products from the UK declined significantly, partly because the hospitality industry worldwide experienced a major slump. According to news reports in February 2021, the Scotch whisky sector alone had experienced £1.1 billion in lost sales.
Tourism in the UK (by visitors from both the UK and from other
countries) declined substantially due to travel restrictions and
lockdowns. For much of 2020, and into 2021, vacation travel was not
permitted and entry into the UK was very strictly limited. Business
travel, for example, declined by nearly 90% over previous years. This not only affected revenue from tourism but also led to numerous job losses.
Middle East
In
the Middle East, the economic situation in the United Arab Emirates and
Saudi Arabia deteriorated more than any other country in the region.
Relying highly on tourism, Dubai was one of the first to reopen tourism.
However, by January 2021, a significant surge in Covid cases in the UAE
was observed, while several countries across the world also began to
blame the Emirati city for spreading the virus abroad.
On the other hand, the economy of the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, faced a deep recession, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the second quarter, Saudi's economy shrank by 7 per cent, hitting
both the oil and non-oil sectors. Besides, unemployment during the
quarter also hit a record high of 15.4 per cent.
For the third quarter, the Kingdom didn't release its labor market
report for the assessment of the unemployment rate. In January 2021, it
was reported that Saudi was supposed to release the data on citizen
unemployment in December 2020. However, it was delayed four times,
before the officials permanently removed the release date from the Saudi
statistics authority's website.
Impact by sector
Various service sectors have been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 recession.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the restaurant business. In the
beginning of March 2020, some major cities in the US announced that bars
and restaurants would be closed to sit-down diners and limited to takeout orders and delivery. Some employees were fired, and more employees lacked sick leave in the sector compared to similar sectors.
Retail
Shopping
centers and other retailers around the world have reduced hours or
closed down entirely. Many were expected not to recover, thereby
accelerating the effects of the retail apocalypse. Department stores and clothing shops have been especially hit.
A nearly empty flight from Beijing to Los Angeles during the pandemic
The pandemic has had a significant impact on the aviation industry due to the resulting travel restrictions
as well as slump in demand among travelers. Significant reductions in
passenger numbers have resulted in planes flying empty between airports
and the cancellation of flights.
The following airlines have gone bankrupt or into administration:
The cruise ship industry has also been heavily affected by a downturn, with the share prices of the major cruise lines down 70–80%.
U.S. impact by occupation and demographic
Differences
across occupations caused difference in the economic effects across
groups. Certain jobs were less suitable for remote work, e.g. because
they involve working with people closely or with particular materials.
Women tended to be affected more than men.
The employment of immigrants in the U.S. declined more than for the
native-born partly because the kinds of job immigrants held.
Inequity in economic impact on workers in similar professions occurred
when employees laid-off completely were awarded both State unemployment
benefits and up to $600/week in federal pandemic assistance – which
together could equal or exceed pre-layoff income – while peers reduced
to part-time employment struggled, ineligible for either unemployment
insurance compensation or the accompanying pandemic payments.
Unlike the Great Recession, it is expected that the COVID-19 recession will also affect the majority of developing nations. On 21 April, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that a famine "of biblical proportions" was expected in several parts of the world as a result of the pandemic.The release of 2020 Global Report on Food Crises indicated that 55 countries were at risk, with David Beasley estimating that in a worst-case scenario "about three dozen" countries would succumb to famine. This is particularly an issue in several countries affected by war, including the Yemeni Civil War, the Syrian civil war, insurgency in the Maghreb and the Afghanistan Conflict and occurs on a background of the 2019 locust infestations in East Africa. Nestlé, PepsiCo, the United Nations Foundation and farmers' unions have written to the G20 for support in maintaining food distributions to prevent food shortages. It is estimated that double the number of people "will go hungry" when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The United Nations forecasts that the following member states will have significant areas with poor food security categorised as under "stress" (IPC phase 2), "crisis" (IPC phase 3), "emergency" (IPC phase 4) or "critical emergency" (IPC phase 5) in 2020:
Donetsk People's Republic (not recognised by the UN)
Luhansk People's Republic (not recognised by the UN)
On 9 July, Oxfam
released a report warning that "12,000 people per day could die from
COVID-19 linked hunger" by 2021, estimating an additional 125 million
people are at risk of starvation due to the pandemic.
In particular the report highlighted "emerging epicentres" of hunger,
alongside famine-stricken areas, including areas in Brazil, India, Yemen
and the Sahel.
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