Nuclear terrorism refers to any person or persons who detonate a nuclear weapon in an act of terrorism (meaning illegal or immoral use of violence for a political or religious cause). Some definitions of nuclear terrorism include the sabotage of a nuclear facility and/or the detonation of a radiological device, colloquially termed a dirty bomb, but consensus is lacking. In legal
terms, nuclear terrorism is an offense committed if a person unlawfully
and intentionally “uses in any way radioactive material … with the
intent to cause death or serious bodily injury; or with the intent to
cause substantial damage to property or to the environment; or with the
intent to compel a natural or legal person, an international
organization or a State to do or refrain from doing an act”, according
to the 2005 United Nations International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism.
The possibility of terrorist organizations using nuclear weapons (including those of a small size, such as those contained within suitcases) is something which is known of within U.S. culture, and at times previously discussed within the political settings of the U.S. It is considered plausible that terrorists could acquire a nuclear weapon. However, despite thefts and trafficking of small amounts of fissile material, all low-concern and less than Category III Special nuclear material (SNM), there is no credible evidence that any terrorist group has succeeded in obtaining Category I SNM, the necessary multi-kilogram critical mass amounts of weapons grade plutonium required to make a nuclear weapon.
The possibility of terrorist organizations using nuclear weapons (including those of a small size, such as those contained within suitcases) is something which is known of within U.S. culture, and at times previously discussed within the political settings of the U.S. It is considered plausible that terrorists could acquire a nuclear weapon. However, despite thefts and trafficking of small amounts of fissile material, all low-concern and less than Category III Special nuclear material (SNM), there is no credible evidence that any terrorist group has succeeded in obtaining Category I SNM, the necessary multi-kilogram critical mass amounts of weapons grade plutonium required to make a nuclear weapon.
Scope
Nuclear terrorism could include:
- Acquiring or fabricating a nuclear weapon
- Fabricating a dirty bomb
- Attacking a nuclear reactor, e.g., by disrupting critical inputs (e.g. water supply)
- Attacking or taking over a nuclear-armed submarine, plane, or base.
Nuclear terrorism, according to a 2011 report published by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, can be executed and distinguished via four pathways:
- The use of a nuclear weapon that has been stolen or purchased on the black market
- The use of a crude explosive device built by terrorists or by nuclear scientists who the terrorist organization has furtively recruited
- The use of an explosive device constructed by terrorists and their accomplices using their own fissile material
- The acquisition of fissile material from a nation-state.
- The creation of a device that may give information about the configuration of components needed for a nuclear weapon
Former U.S. President Barack Obama
called nuclear terrorism "the single most important national security
threat that we face". In his first speech to the U.N. Security Council,
President Obama said that "Just one nuclear weapon exploded in a city
-- be it New York or Moscow, Tokyo or Beijing, London or Paris -- could
kill hundreds of thousands of people". It would "destabilize our
security, our economies, and our very way of life".
History
As
early as December 1945, politicians worried about the possibility of
smuggling nuclear weapons into the United States, though this was still
in the context of a battle between the superpowers of the Cold War. Congressmen quizzed the "father of the atomic bomb," J. Robert Oppenheimer, about the possibility of detecting a smuggled atomic bomb:
Sen. Millikin: We... have mine-detecting devices, which are rather effective... I was wondering if anything of that kind might be available to use as a defense against that particular type of use of atomic bombs.
Dr. Oppenheimer: If you hired me to walk through the cellars of Washington to see whether there were atomic bombs, I think my most important tool would be a screwdriver to open the crates and look. I think that just walking by, swinging a little gadget would not give me the information.
This sparked further work on the question of smuggled atomic devices during the 1950s.
Discussions of non-state nuclear terrorism among experts go back at least to the 1970s. In 1975 The Economist
warned that "You can make a bomb with a few pounds of plutonium. By the
mid-1980s the power stations may easily be turning out 200,000 lb of
the stuff each year. And each year, unless present methods are
drastically changed, many thousands of pounds of it will be transferred
from one plant to another as it proceeds through the fuel cycle. The
dangers of robbery in transit are evident.... Vigorous co-operation
between governments and the International Atomic Energy Agency could,
even at this late stage, make the looming perils loom a good deal
smaller." And the New York Times commented in 1981 that The Nuclear Emergency Search Team's "origins go back to the aftershocks of the Munich Olympic massacre
in mid-1972. Until that time, no one in the United States Government
had thought seriously about the menace of organized, international
terrorism, much less nuclear terrorism. There was a perception in
Washington that the value of what is called 'special nuclear material' -
plutonium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) - was so enormous that the
strict financial accountability of the private contractors who dealt
with it would be enough to protect it from falling into the wrong hands.
But it has since been revealed that the physical safeguarding of
bomb-grade material against theft was almost scandalously neglected."
This discussion took on a larger public character in the 1980s after NBC aired Special Bulletin, a television dramatization of a nuclear terrorist attack on the United States. In 1986 a private panel of experts known as the International Task Force on the Prevention of Terrorism
released a report urging all nuclear-armed states to beware the dangers
of terrorism and work on equipping their nuclear arsenals with permissive action links.
"The probability of nuclear terrorism," the experts warned, "is
increasing and the consequences for urban and industrial societies could
be catastrophic."
The World Institute for Nuclear Security is an organization which seeks to prevent nuclear terrorism and improve world nuclear security. It works alongside the International Atomic Energy Agency. WINS was formed in 2008, less than a year after a break-in at the Pelindaba nuclear facility in South Africa, which contained enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs.
The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism
(GICNT) is an international partnership of 86 nations and 4 official
observers working to improve capacity on a national and international
level for prevention, detection, and response to a nuclear terrorist
event. Partners join the GICNT by endorsing the Statement of
Principles, a set of broad nuclear security objectives. GICNT partner
nations organize and host workshops, conferences, and exercises to share
best practices for implementing the Statement of Principles. The GICNT
also holds Plenary meetings to discuss improvements and changes to the
partnership.
Militant groups
Nuclear weapons materials on the black market are a global concern, and there is concern about the possible detonation of a small, crude nuclear weapon by a militant group in a major city, with significant loss of life and property.
It is feared that a terrorist group could detonate a dirty bomb, a type of radiological weapon.
A dirty bomb is made of any radioactive source and a conventional
explosive. There would be no nuclear blast and likely no fatalities, but
the radioactive material is dispersed and can cause extensive fallout depending on the material used.
There are other radiological weapons called radiological exposure
devices where an explosive is not necessary. A radiological weapon may
be very appealing to terrorist groups as it is highly successful in
instilling fear and panic among a population (particularly because of
the threat of radiation poisoning)
and would contaminate the immediate area for some period of time,
disrupting attempts to repair the damage and subsequently inflicting
significant economic losses.
al-Qaeda
According to Bunn & Wier, Osama bin Laden requested a ruling (a fatwa), and was subsequently informed via a cleric of Saudi Arabia during 2003, of it being in accordance with Islamic law
for him to use a nuclear device against civilians if it were the only
course of action available to him in a situation of defending Muslims
against the actions of the U.S. military.
According to leaked diplomatic documents, al-Qaeda can produce radiological weapons, after sourcing nuclear material and recruiting rogue scientists to build "dirty bombs". Al-Qaeda, along with some North Caucasus terrorist groups that seek to establish an Islamic Caliphate in Russia, have consistently stated they seek nuclear weapons and have tried to acquire them.
Al-Qaeda has sought nuclear weapons for almost two decades by
attempting to purchase stolen nuclear material and weapons and has
sought nuclear expertise on numerous occasions. Osama bin Laden stated
that the acquisition of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass
destruction is a “religious duty.”
While pressure from a wide range of counter-terrorist activity has
hampered Al-Qaeda's ability to manage such a complex project, there is
no sign that it has jettisoned its goals of acquiring fissile material. Statements made as recently as 2008 indicate that Al-Qaeda's nuclear ambitions are still very strong.
ISIS
ISIS has demonstrated ambition to use weapons of mass destruction.
Although the chances of them obtaining a nuclear bomb are small, the
group have been trying/suspected of trying to obtain a nuclear dirty bomb. In July 2014, ISIS militants captured nuclear materials from Mosul University. In a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Iraq's UN Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim
said that the materials had been kept at the university and "can be
used in manufacturing weapons of mass destruction". However, Nuclear
experts regarded the threat as insignificant. International Atomic Energy Agency
spokeswoman Gill Tudor said that the seized materials were "low grade
and would not present a significant safety, security or nuclear
proliferation risk".
In October 2015 it was reported that Moldovan
authorities working with the FBI have stopped four attempts from 2010
to 2015 by gangs with suspected connections to Russia's intelligence
services that sought to sell radioactive material to ISIS and other
Middle Eastern extremists. The last reported case came in February 2015
when a smuggler with a large amount of radioactive caesium specifically
sought a buyer from ISIS. The Criminal organizations are thriving on
black market nuclear materials in Moldova. Since relations between
Russia and the West have deteriorated, it is difficult to know whether
smugglers are succeeding in selling radioactive material originating
from Russia to Islamist terrorists and elsewhere.
In March 2016, it was reported that a senior Belgian nuclear official was being monitored by ISIS suspects linked to the November 2015 Paris attacks
leading Belgium authorities to suspect that ISIS was planning on
abducting the official to obtain nuclear materials for a dirty bomb.
In April 2016, EU and NATO security chiefs warned that ISIS are plotting to carry out nuclear attacks on the UK and Europe.
North Caucasus terrorists
North Caucasus
terrorists have attempted to seize a nuclear submarine armed with
nuclear weapons. They have also engaged in reconnaissance activities on
nuclear storage facilities and have repeatedly threatened to sabotage
nuclear facilities. Similar to Al-Qaeda,
these groups’ activities have been hampered by counter-terrorism
activity; nevertheless they remain committed to launching such a
devastating attack within Russia.
Aum Shinrikyo
The Japanese terror cult Aum Shinrikyo, which used nerve gas to attack a Tokyo subway in 1995, has also tried to acquire nuclear weapons. However, according to nuclear terrorism researchers at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, there is no evidence that they continue to do so.
Incidents involving nuclear material
Information reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) shows "a persistent problem with the illicit trafficking in
nuclear and other radioactive materials, thefts, losses and other
unauthorized activities".
The IAEA Illicit Nuclear Trafficking Database notes 1,266 incidents
reported by 99 countries over the last 12 years, including 18 incidents
involving HEU or plutonium trafficking:
- There have been 18 incidents of theft or loss of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium confirmed by the IAEA.
- British academic Shaun Gregory alleged in 2009 that terrorists had attacked Pakistani nuclear facilities three times; twice in 2007 and once in 2008. However, the then Director General ISPR Athar Abbas said the claims were "factually incorrect", adding that the sites were "military facilities, not nuclear installations".
- In November 2007, burglars with unknown intentions infiltrated the Pelindaba nuclear research facility near Pretoria, South Africa. The burglars escaped without acquiring any of the uranium held at the facility.
- In June 2007, the Federal Bureau of Investigation released to the press the name of Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah, allegedly the operations leader for developing tactical plans for detonating nuclear bombs in several American cities simultaneously.
- In November 2006, MI5 warned that al-Qaida were planning on using nuclear weapons against cities in the United Kingdom by obtaining the bombs via clandestine means.
- In February 2006, Oleg Khinsagov of Russia was arrested in Georgia, along with three Georgian accomplices, with 79.5 grams of 89 percent HEU.
- In November 2006, the Alexander Litvinenko poisoning with radioactive polonium "represents an ominous landmark: the beginning of an era of nuclear terrorism," according to Andrew J. Patterson.
- In June 2002, U.S. citizen José Padilla was arrested for allegedly planning a radiological attack on the city of Chicago; however, he was never charged with such conduct. He was instead convicted of charges that he conspired to "murder, kidnap and maim" people overseas.
- There have been incidents where individuals such as David Hahn (aka the radioactive boy scout) and others have been initially charged under the relevant legislation due to the extent of contamination but the charges later withdrawn either due to lack of evidence or other reasons. This can be problematic when it is later proven that the intent was benign such as scientific research without the appropriate licenses or affiliation with an institution.
Pakistan
In 2009, a paper published in West Point Military Academy's journal alleged that Pakistan's nuclear sites had been attacked by al-Qaeda and the Taliban at least three times. However, Pakistan's military rejected the allegations. Talat Masood, a political analyst, said that the nuclear link was "absolute nonsense". All three attacks were suicide and appeared to aim at causing maximum damage and not seizing weapons.
In January 2010, it was revealed that the US army was training a
specialised unit "to seal off and snatch back" Pakistani nuclear weapons
in the event that militants would obtain a nuclear device or materials
that could make one. Pakistan supposedly possesses about 80 nuclear
warheads. US officials refused to speak on the record about the American
safety plans.
A study by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University
titled "Securing the Bomb 2010," found that Pakistan's stockpile "faces
a greater threat from Islamic terror groups seeking nuclear weapons
than any other nuclear stockpile on earth." In 2016, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vincent R. Stewart
said that Pakistan "continues to take steps to improve its nuclear
security, and is aware of the threat presented by extremists to its
program".
According to Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former investigator with the
CIA and the US Department of Energy, there is "a greater possibility of a
nuclear meltdown in Pakistan than anywhere else in the world. The
region has more violent extremists than any other, the country is
unstable, and its arsenal of nuclear weapons is expanding." In 2015, White House press secretary Josh Earnest
said that the US has confidence that Pakistan is "well aware of the
range of potential threats to its nuclear arsenal". He added that the US
is "confident that Pakistan has a professional and dedicated security
force that understands the importance and the high priority that the
world places on nuclear security".
Nuclear weapons expert David Albright
and author of "Peddling Peril" has also expressed concerns that
Pakistan's stockpile may not be secure despite assurances by both
Pakistan and U.S. government. He stated that Pakistan "has had many
leaks from its program of classified information and sensitive nuclear
equipment, and so you have to worry that it could be acquired in
Pakistan". In 2015, Richard G. Olson, former US Ambassador to Pakistan, expressed confidence in the capabilities of the Pakistani security forces to control and
secure its nuclear weapons. He added that Islamabad has "specifically taken into account the insider threat".
A 2016 study by the Congressional Research Service
titled 'Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons', noted that Pakistan's
"initiatives, such as strengthened export control laws, improved
personnel security, and international nuclear security cooperation
programs, have improved Pakistan's nuclear security".
United States
While in office, President Barack Obama reviewed Homeland Security policy and concluded that "attacks using improvised nuclear devices ... pose a serious and increasing national security risk".
In their presidential contest, President George W. Bush and Senator
John Kerry both agreed that the most serious danger facing the United
States is the possibility that terrorists could obtain a nuclear bomb.
Most nuclear-weapon analysts agree that "building such a device would
pose few technological challenges to reasonably competent terrorists".
The main barrier is acquiring highly enriched uranium.
In 2004, Graham Allison, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense
during the Clinton administration, wrote that “on the current path, a
nuclear terrorist attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely
than not". In 2004, Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information
stated: "I wouldn't be at all surprised if nuclear weapons are used
over the next 15 or 20 years, first and foremost by a terrorist group
that gets its hands on a Russian nuclear weapon or a Pakistani nuclear
weapon".
In 2006, Robert Galluccii, Dean of the Georgetown University School of
Foreign Service, estimated that, “it is more likely than not that
al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates will detonate a nuclear weapon in a
U.S. city within the next five to ten years." Despite a number of claims,
there is no credible evidence that any terrorist group has yet
succeeded in obtaining a nuclear bomb or the materials needed to make
one.
Detonation of a nuclear weapon in a major U.S. city could kill
more than 500,000 people and cause more than a trillion dollars in
damage.
Hundreds of thousands could die from fallout, the resulting fires and
collapsing buildings. In this scenario, uncontrolled fires would burn
for days and emergency services and hospitals would be completely
overwhelmed.
The likely socio-economic consequences in the United States outside the
immediate vicinity of an attack, and possibly in other countries, would
also likely be far-reaching. A Rand Corporation report speculates that there may be an exodus from other urban centers by populations fearful of another nuclear attack.
The Obama administration will focus on reducing the risk of
high-consequence, non-traditional nuclear threats. Nuclear security is
to be strengthened by enhancing "nuclear detection architecture and
ensuring that our own nuclear materials are secure," and by
"establishing well-planned, well-rehearsed, plans for co-ordinated
response."
According to senior Pentagon officials, the United States will make
"thwarting nuclear-armed terrorists a central aim of American strategic
nuclear planning." Nuclear attribution
is another strategy being pursued to counter terrorism. Led by the
National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center, attribution would allow the
government to determine the likely source of nuclear material used in
the event of a nuclear attack. This would prevent terrorist groups, and
any states willing to help them, from being able to pull off a covert
attack without assurance of retaliation.
In July 2010 medical personnel from the U.S. Army practiced the
techniques they would use to treat people injured by an atomic blast.
The exercises were carried out at a training center in Indiana, and were
set up to "simulate the aftermath of a small nuclear bomb blast, set
off in a U.S. city by terrorists."
Stuxnet is a computer worm discovered in June 2010 that is believed to have been created by the United States and Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
Nuclear power plants
After 9/11, nuclear power plants were to be prepared for an attack by a large, well-armed terrorist group. But the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
in revising its security rules, decided not to require that plants be
able to defend themselves against groups carrying sophisticated weapons.
According to a study by the Government Accountability Office, the
N.R.C. appeared to have based its revised rules "on what the industry
considered reasonable and feasible to defend against rather than on an
assessment of the terrorist threat itself". If terrorist groups could sufficiently damage safety systems to cause a core meltdown at a nuclear power plant, and/or sufficiently damage spent fuel pools, such an attack could lead to widespread radioactive contamination. The Federation of American Scientists
have said that if nuclear power use is to expand significantly, nuclear
facilities will have to be made extremely safe from attacks that could
release massive quantities of radioactivity into the community. New
reactor designs have features of passive safety,
which may help. In the United States, the NRC carries out "Force on
Force" (FOF) exercises at all Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) sites at least
once every three years.
The peace group Plowshares
have shown how nuclear weapons facilities can be penetrated, and the
groups actions represent extraordinary breaches of security at nuclear weapons plants in the United States. The National Nuclear Security Administration has acknowledged the seriousness of the 2012 Plowshares action. Non-proliferation
policy experts have questioned "the use of private contractors to
provide security at facilities that manufacture and store the
government's most dangerous military material".
Hoaxes
In late 1974, President Gerald Ford was warned that the FBI received a communication from an extortionist wanting $200,000 ($1,000,000 today) after claiming that a nuclear weapon had been placed somewhere in Boston. A team of experts rushed in from the United States Atomic Energy Commission
but their radiation detection gear arrived at a different airport.
Federal officials then rented a fleet of vans to carry concealed radiation detectors around the city but forgot to bring the tools they needed to install the equipment. The incident was later found to be a hoax.
However, the government's response made clear the need for an agency
capable of effectively responding to such threats in the future. Later
that year, President Ford created the Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST), which under the Atomic Energy Act
is tasked with investigating the "illegal use of nuclear materials
within the United States, including terrorist threats involving the use
of special nuclear materials".
One of its first responses by the Nuclear Emergency Search/Support Team was in Spokane, Washington on November 23, 1976. An unknown group called the "Days of Omega" had mailed an extortion
threat claiming it would explode radioactive containers of water all
over the city unless paid $500,000 ($2,200,000 today). Presumably, the
radioactive containers had been stolen from the Hanford Site, less than 150 miles to the southwest. Immediately, NEST flew in a support aircraft from Las Vegas
and began searching for non-natural radiation, but found nothing. No
one ever responded despite the elaborate instructions given, or made any
attempt to claim the (fake) money which was kept under surveillance.
Within days, the incident was deemed a hoax, though the case was never
solved. To avoid panic, the public was not notified until a few years
later.
Policy landscape
Recovery
The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (CTR), which is also known as the Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction,
is a 1992 law sponsored by Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar. The CTR
established a program that gave the U.S. Department of Defense a direct
stake in securing loose fissile material inside the since-dissolved
USSR. According to Graham Allison, director of Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
this law is a major reason why not a single nuclear weapon has been
discovered outside the control of Russia's nuclear custodians. The Belfer Center is itself running the Project on Managing the Atom, Matthew Bunn is a co-principal investigator of the project, Martin B. Malin is its executive director (circa. 2014).
In August 2002, the United States launched a program to track and secure enriched uranium from 24 Soviet-style reactors in 16 countries, in order to reduce the risk of the materials falling into the hands of terrorists or "rogue states". The first such operation was Project Vinca, "a multinational, public-private effort to remove nuclear material from a poorly-secured Yugoslav research institute."
The project has been hailed as "a nonproliferation success story" with
the "potential to inform broader 'global cleanout' efforts to address
one of the weakest links in the nuclear nonproliferation chain:
insufficiently secured civilian nuclear research facilities."
In 2004, the U.S. Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) was established in order to consolidate nuclear stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (HEU), plutonium, and assemble nuclear weapons at fewer locations. Additionally, the GTRI converted HEU fuels to low-enriched uranium
(LEU) fuels, which has prevented their use in making a nuclear bomb
within a short amount of time. HEU that has not been converted to LEU
has been shipped back to secure sites, while amplified security measures
have taken hold around vulnerable nuclear facilities.
Options
Robert Gallucci, President of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, argues that traditional deterrence is not an effective approach toward terrorist groups bent on causing a nuclear catastrophe. Henry Kissinger, stating the wide availability of nuclear weapons makes deterrence “decreasingly effective and increasingly hazardous.”
Preventive strategies, which advocate the elimination of an enemy
before it is able to mount an attack, are risky and controversial,
therefore difficult to implement. Gallucci believes that “the United
States should instead consider a policy of expanded deterrence, which
focuses not on the would-be nuclear terrorists but on those states that
may deliberately transfer or inadvertently lead nuclear weapons and
materials to them. By threatening retaliation against those states, the
United States may be able to deter that which it cannot physically
prevent.”.
Graham Allison
makes a similar case, arguing that the key to expanded deterrence is
coming up with ways of tracing nuclear material to the country that
forged the fissile material. “After a nuclear bomb detonates, nuclear
forensic cops would collect debris samples and send them to a laboratory
for radiological analysis. By identifying unique attributes of the
fissile material, including its impurities and contaminants, one could
trace the path back to its origin.”
The process is analogous to identifying a criminal by fingerprints.
“The goal would be twofold: first, to deter leaders of nuclear states
from selling weapons to terrorists by holding them accountable for any
use of their own weapons; second, to give every leader the incentive to
tightly secure their nuclear weapons and materials.”
Nuclear skeptics
John Mueller, a scholar of international relations at the Ohio State University,
is a prominent nuclear skeptic. He makes three claims: (1) the nuclear
intent and capability of terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda has been
“fundamentally exaggerated;” (2) “the likelihood a terrorist group will
come up with an atomic bomb seems to be vanishingly small;” and (3)
policymakers are guilty of an “atomic obsession” that has led to
“substantively counterproductive” policies premised on “worst case
fantasies.” In his book Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda
he argues that: "anxieties about terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons
are essentially baseless: a host of practical and organizational
difficulties make their likelihood of success almost vanishingly small".
Intelligence officials have pushed back, testifying before
Congress that the inability to recognize the shifting modus oparandi of
terrorist groups was part of the reason why members of Aum Shinrikyo, for example, were “not on anybody’s radar screen.” Matthew Bunn, associate professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, argues that “Theft of HEU and plutonium is not a hypothetical worry, it is an ongoing reality."
Almost all of the stolen HEU and plutonium that has been seized over
the years had never been missed before it was seized. The IAEA Illicit
Nuclear Trafficking Database notes 1,266 incidents reported by 99
countries over the last 12 years, including 18 incidents involving HEU
or plutonium trafficking.
Keir Lieber and Daryl Press argue that despite the prominent U.S.
focus on nuclear terrorism, "the fear of terrorist transfer [of nuclear
weapons] seems greatly exaggerated... [and] the dangers of a state
giving nuclear weapons to terrorists have been overstated." A decade of
terrorism statistics show a strong correlation between attack
fatalities and the attribution of the attack, and Lieber and Press
assert that "neither a terror group nor a state sponsor would remain
anonymous after a nuclear terror attack." About 75 percent of attacks
with 100 or more fatalities were traced to the culprits; also, 97
percent of attacks on U.S. soil or that of a major ally (resulting in 10
or more deaths) were attributed to the guilty party. Lieber and Press
conclude that the lack of anonymity would deter a state from providing
terrorist groups with nuclear weapons.
The use of HEU and plutonium in satellites has raised the concern
that a sufficiently motivated rogue state could retrieve materials from
a satellite crash (notably on land as occurred with Kosmos-954, Mars-96
and Fobos-Grunt) and then use these to supplement the yield of an
already working nuclear device. This has been discussed recently in the
UN and the Nuclear Emergency Search Team
regularly consults with Roscosmos and NASA about satellite re-entries
that may have contained such materials. As yet no parts were verifiably
recovered from Mars 96 but recent Wikileaks releases suggest that one of
the "cells" may have been recovered by mountain climbers in Chile.
Security summits
On April 12–13, 2010, President of the United States Barack Obama initiated and hosted the first-ever nuclear security summit in Washington D.C., commonly known as the Washington Nuclear Security Summit.
The goal was to strengthen international cooperation to prevent nuclear
terrorism. President Obama, along with nearly fifty world leaders,
discussed the threat of nuclear terrorism, what steps needed to be taken
to mitigate illicit nuclear trafficking, and how to secure nuclear
material. The Summit was successful in that it produced a consensus
delineating nuclear terrorism as a serious threat to all nations.
Finally, the Summit produced over four-dozen specific actions embodied
in commitments by individual countries and the Joint Work Plan.
However, world leaders at the Summit failed to agree on baseline
protections for weapons-usable material, and no agreement was reached on
ending the use of highly enriched uranium
(HEU) in civil nuclear functions. Many of the shortcomings of the
Washington Nuclear Security Summit were addressed at the Seoul Nuclear
Security Summit in March 2012.
According to Graham Allison, director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the objectives of the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul
are to continue to, “assess the progress made since the Washington
Summit and propose additional cooperation measures to (1) Combat the
threat of nuclear terrorism, (2) protect nuclear materials and related
facilities, and (3) prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear materials."
Media coverage
In 2011, the British news agency, the Telegraph, received leaked documents regarding the Guantanamo Bay interrogations of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. The documents cited Khalid saying that, if Osama bin Laden is captured or killed by the Coalition of the Willing, an al-Qaeda sleeper cell will detonate a "weapon of mass destruction" in a "secret location" in Europe, and promised it would be "a nuclear hellstorm". No such attack occurred.