I did this again this morning and, although their was still foaming, I felt no heat in the reacting vessel. Perhaps I was wrong in inferring a chemical reaction last time -- I'm sure if you poured ordinary water into bleach you'd still get some foaming.
Lesson is, science is built on repeatable observations, and I couldn't repeat my own. Who knows why the mixture grew warm last time; maybe it was nothing but overstimulated imagination.
I guess I'll have to try it one last time, just to make sure.
A Medley of Potpourri is just what it says; various thoughts, opinions, ruminations, and contemplations on a variety of subjects.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Wondering About Ourselves: An Excerpt from WONDERING ABOUT
To
our astonishment, our common sense view of things biological begins to disintegrate
the moment we apply curiosity and imagination to it, to dissect it and look
into it at the finest levels science allows us to probe. In doing so, try as we might, we never
encounter this special essence or quality which seems so obvious at first
sight. Instead, what we do find, when we
break out our detectors and other scientific instruments, is that living things
are composed of atoms and moledcules like everything else, albeit not in the
same elemental proportions, yet acting according to the same laws of physics
and chemistry as everything else. The
mechanical, Newtonian universe of objects and forces, modified by quantum
effects on the smallest scales, appear all that is needed to explain why butterflies
fly, or mate, or find food, or stare at us with the seeming same curiosity that
we feel gazing upon it. All our initial
impressions, and all the stories that have been told and retold aside, there appears
no miraculous special something that we can affix to or inject matter with to
make it come alive; no energy fields, no forces, no protoplasm, no elixir of
the living, nothing we can pump into Dr. Frankenstein’s reassembled parts of corpses
which will make it groan and open its eyes and have thoughts and feelings and
break its bonds to move in accordance with them. There is nothing like that whatsoever. No, whatever it is that characterizes life
lies elsewhere.
But
the impression of such a force is so strong, so deep, so instinctual that, try
as we might, we cannot simply abandon it without at least wondering why it is
there, where it comes from, and what it tells us. Something
is there, of that there can be no question.
Intentionality. Complexity.
Design. Try to put aside your ordinary
impressions and perceptions of things, and seed your mind, germinate in your
mind, take root and push out of the soil and put forth leaves and vines in your
mind, the theme that to satisfy our curiosity we must look at the world from a
different perspective, the one that imagination unlocks. Very often, we find that when we look
closely, what we thought we were seeing fades away, yet is replaced by
something just as amazing – no, more so.
Let
us start with the simplest of things that could be called living. Consider the virus. Here is something both considerably smaller
and simpler than the smallest, simplest bacterium, all biologists would
agree. But on the most microscopic of scales,
that of individual atoms and molecules, even the simplest virus turns out to be
a machine of remarkable complexity. At
the very least it has to be able to recognize a host cell it can parasitize,
whether it is a cell in your body or a bacterium (in which case it is called a
bactaeriaphage), somehow figure out the molecular locks and other gizmos which
cells use to protect themselves from invasion, penetrate the defenses, then
usurp the molecular machinery the cell uses to replicate itself, perverting the
cell into a factory for producing many more copies of the virus, copies which
then have to figure out how to break out of the cell in order to repeat the
cycle on other cells or bacteria, all the while avoiding or distracting the
many other layers of defenses cells and bodies use to protect themselves from
such invasions.
Biologists
still debate whether viruses can be legitimately counted among the various
kingdoms and domains of life, but there is no doubt that their hosts, whether
bacteria or other single celled organisms or multicellular organisms, can be
classified in the great Tree of Life, from which all other living things, be
they plants, animals, fungi, or you, diverge from. And what dominates this tree, right down to the
most primitive beginnings we have yet been able to detect, is a level of
complexity that we simply do not encounter among the great many more things
than don’t belong on this tree, from rocks to stars to solar systems to
galaxies.
So
after all this, have we cornered our quarry?
We started with the at first sight idea that life possessed some special
quality or substance or essence, then realized that we could not find that
essence however hard we looked. But what
we did find was that living things, even the simplest of them, showed a level
of complex organization well beyond the most complex of non-living things.
Life
is special. I don’t want to lose sight of that. We are fully justified in our grand division
of matter into the non-living – things we explain only by the laws of physics
and chemistry at a simple level – and the living, all the things we must also
apply whatever biology has to teach us.
What I have been trying to show is that, whatever that specialness is,
it isn’t as obvious as it appears upon first sight. It is more subtle, involving a number of
characters and qualities, one of which is complexity and another the appearance
of design or purpose.
* * *
Again,
I say that life truly is special. It is
early May, and I have just come home from a walk through Pennypack Park, one of
the many lovely natural places which skirt the city where I live, Philadelphia,
one of several cities along the eastern
edge of North America. I would love one
day to walk on the moon or on the red soil of the planet Mars, but what I have
just experienced would be utterly lacking in those dead, albeit fascinating
places. In the spring in this part of
the world, as in many other parts of our planet, every sense is roused to life
by the call of the wild. Not only are
you surrounded by the verdant green of new buds and flowers and grasses, but also
by a cacophony of whistles, chirps, tweets, and other rhythmic sounds which reminds
you that you that new life is all about, some of it still rustling itself to
full wakefulness after winter but much of it already in the air and alit on the
many twigs and branches. And even without
vision and sound, you can still smell the musty beginnings of stirrings things,
the scents of enticing blossoms and irritating pollens, and you can still feel
the grass between your toes and the softness of young leaves on your skin as you
brush by the undergrowth.
Here
I have spoken of complexity and the appearance of purpose and meaning, and
perhaps that is exactly what our scientific mission into the heart and soul of
biology requires, but this is one place where, I have to submit, we will never
really capture the essence of what we are studying. Life is something that has to be experienced,
and only living things themselves have the capacity, as far as we know, to
experience anything. So, in a sense, our
quest to satisfy our curiosity begins with the admission that, at least for the
world of the living, we never can completely satisfy it.
Am I going to give up, then? No, because, as I have maintained up to this
point, curiosity combined with imagination and the scientific method can undo
any knot, unlock any riddle, however baffling and impervious it may seem. I have even suggested a starting place even,
this idea of complexity combined with apparent purposefulness, an idea I hope
to build upon and demonstrate just how powerful it is. I think we can agree that it is a good
starting place. Biological things, even
the simplest of them, are highly complex, we now see, and there does seem to be
something to this notion of being imbued with purpose, however that comes
about. If we can make some progress on
this front, then perhaps in the end we will satisfy our intellects after all,
as impossible as that seems looking at things from their beginnings.
Quadratic Fitting of Data
I recently had to tear my hair out finding an algorithm for the coefficients of a second order fit for a set of data points ( first order fits are easy). I found this below, in FORTRAN, and translated it into VB:
Sub QuadFit(N As Double, P As Double, i As Integer, X() As Double, _
Y() As Double, Q As Double, N As Double, R As Double, _
S As Double, T as Double, U As Double, V As Double, _
W as Double, as As Double, b As Double, c As Double)
P = 0
For i = 1 To N
P = P + X(i)
Next i
Q = 0
For i = 1 To N
Q = Q + X(i) ^ 2
Next i
R = 0
For i = 1 To N
R = R + X(i) ^ 3
Next i
S = 0
For i = 1 To N
S = S + X(i) ^ 4
Next i
T = 0
For i = 1 To N
T = T + Y(i)
Next i
U = 0
For i = 1 To N
U = U + X(i) * Y(i)
Next i
V = 0
For i = 1 To N
V = V + X(i) ^ 2 * Y(i)
Next i
W = N * Q * S + 2 * P * Q * R - Q ^ 3 - P ^ 2 * S - N * R ^ 2
a = (N * Q * V + P * R * T + P * Q * U - Q ^ 2 * T - P ^ 2 * V - N * R * U) / W
b = (N * S * U + P * Q * V + Q * R * T - Q ^ 2 * U - P * S * T - N * R * V) / W
c = (Q * S * T + Q * R * U + P * R * V - Q ^ 2 * V - P * S * U - R ^ 2 * T) / W
End Sub
I hope you can use it.
Sub QuadFit(N As Double, P As Double, i As Integer, X() As Double, _
Y() As Double, Q As Double, N As Double, R As Double, _
S As Double, T as Double, U As Double, V As Double, _
W as Double, as As Double, b As Double, c As Double)
P = 0
For i = 1 To N
P = P + X(i)
Next i
Q = 0
For i = 1 To N
Q = Q + X(i) ^ 2
Next i
R = 0
For i = 1 To N
R = R + X(i) ^ 3
Next i
S = 0
For i = 1 To N
S = S + X(i) ^ 4
Next i
T = 0
For i = 1 To N
T = T + Y(i)
Next i
U = 0
For i = 1 To N
U = U + X(i) * Y(i)
Next i
V = 0
For i = 1 To N
V = V + X(i) ^ 2 * Y(i)
Next i
W = N * Q * S + 2 * P * Q * R - Q ^ 3 - P ^ 2 * S - N * R ^ 2
a = (N * Q * V + P * R * T + P * Q * U - Q ^ 2 * T - P ^ 2 * V - N * R * U) / W
b = (N * S * U + P * Q * V + Q * R * T - Q ^ 2 * U - P * S * T - N * R * V) / W
c = (Q * S * T + Q * R * U + P * R * V - Q ^ 2 * V - P * S * U - R ^ 2 * T) / W
End Sub
I hope you can use it.
Monday, December 12, 2011
I love this illusion. Squares A and B are "clearly" of different shades of grey, eh? So why do when I connect them with a line with A's shade (or B's shade), a line which is in fact of one shade because I selected it that way (with Paintbrush), the lines lighten or darken depending on which square that it is in.
Of course you're brain is fooling you. Lesson? Take caution listening to your brain!
Of course you're brain is fooling you. Lesson? Take caution listening to your brain!
Sunday, December 11, 2011
How We Know What We Know -- Chapter Two
When I was in my early twenties I was in love. It was unrequited, but we still got along
well and to this day I still say that she is one of the finest persons I have
ever met. I won’t say it wasn’t painful
– as an aspie I probably just didn’t have the knowledge and maturity to win her
heart (or maybe it just wasn’t “meant to be”, whatever that means) – but I have
always been glad that I knew her. She
was a terrific friend and companion.
Figure II.
One day, we were discussing ancient pyramids, of both
the old and new worlds. You might have noticed that among the very large
structures built by these ancient cultures (Maya, Mesopotamia, and Egypt
mainly) were a variety of pyramids, from step to flat-faced, with the smaller
step ones coming first because they are easier to build, and often evolving, as
in Egypt about 2500 BC, toward the huge, flat-faced structures (e.g., Giza). That this came about by improvements in the
needed engineering skills is fairly certain (I doubt they needed ancient
astronauts, though of course it is possible), and probably also by larger
populations, a decreasing portion of which didn’t have to grow food and so were
available as necessary labor. Better
political and cultural organization no doubt played a role too.
In chatting on the subject, she made a claim which I
immediately found hard to swallow. I can
accept the Egyptians and Mesopotamians influencing each other; the areas are
nearby in the Middle East, while excursions (and even conquests) between the
two are common in history. It’s quite
reasonable to imagine (though I am not certain) the two cultures shared and
contributed to each others’ pyramid construction techniques and
strategies. I am ignorant of whether
this really happened, but it is plausible and easy to believe.
But Egypt/Mesopotamia influencing the Maya? She was quite sure of this; but it was only
because she couldn’t imagine two separate cultures building such common
structures, especially such massive ones, without their being a physical connection. To be fair, the idea sounds superficially
reasonable and even compelling, this idea of Egyptian boats making the trans-Atlantic
voyage to the Yucatan peninsula and instructing the Mayans on the time-honored
art of pyramid building.
What a minute, though.
Ancient Egyptian boats making trans-Atlantic voyages? In fact, this is a real problem. As the Europeans were to find out in the
15’th and 16’th centuries AD (and the Chinese about the same time), there are
huge differences between large ocean-traversing vehicles and those who stick to
rivers, bays, and small seas and lakes.
You need deep, complex keels in the ocean variety to handle the higher
and more violent waters and storms, deep harbor ports to handle such vehicles, which
are larger, sturdier boats (made with hard wood at least, which Egypt had
little of) with more men and much more supplies (to handle journeys of months
instead of days or weeks at most), and so on.
Now, I have never heard of any discoveries of these things being made in
Egypt through the many centuries she was a great power in the western world;
and we certainly would have found them if they’d existed, for there is no lack
of archeological exploration there. What
we do know is that Egyptian boats were mostly made from papyrus and other reeds,
hardly up to ocean travelling needs. Indeed,
these ancient, (mostly Mediterranean and Black) sea travelling boats stuck
close to shorelines for safety, something you couldn’t do in a large ocean.
This would seem to make it virtually impossible for any
ancient Egyptians/Mesopotamians to reach the Yucatan Peninsula in Central
America. Even if one did, by accident
say (this is possible, with incredible luck), why would they carry pyramid
builders and technology with them? They
would have had no ideas what to expect, besides, perhaps, an end of the world
to fall off (the ancient Egyptians didn’t know Earth was spherical, a fact that
was discovered by the Greeks many centuries later).
I think all this alone destroys this hypothesis, though
it is not always easy to make such statements with certainty. For there is still the fact of similar
pyramids in old and new world cultures, something that still needs
explaining. To be complete, the one fact
that fits poorest for my friend’s idea (perhaps even worse than the ship dilemma)
is that the new world pyramids were built many centuries and even millennia
after the old world ones. If an Egyptian
boat were to somehow cross the Atlantic at its pyramid building times it would
not have encountered a culture that could imitate much of the Egyptian/Mesopotamian
technology/political/cultural levels even to save its life. Yet by the time the Mayans (and some other
Central American cultures) were ready for it, the old world was far beyond
pyramids, having acquired the ability to build more complex and useful
structures (oh, say, like the Valley of the Kings, the Greek Parthenon and
Roman aqueducts, maybe even medieval castles).
* * *
Think about it.
You are a well organized, powerful, and highly command-centered Neolithic
stone-age culture, with a good supply of available manual labor (including, no
doubt and, alas, slaves) and rock. Time,
as in decades, you have in abundance too, or so you hope. As the leader of this culture you want to
construct huge monuments to your greatness, both to intimidate the masses and
your neighbors, and to make you remembered for “all of time.” What would you construct?
Your engineering skills are still pretty primitive for
such tasks, so you need the easiest to build, strongest, and most sturdiest
structure you can manage. Is it hard to
see that this would be a pyramid, starting off with small, steps ones and
building them larger, with smaller steps, as your engineering and architectural
skills were acquired over decades and centuries? A pyramid is in fact very strong, with a stable,
a broad, flat bottom combined with tapering construction above it. I’m sure it requires the least engineering
and architectural mastery, as you are just basically carving out (shaped) stones
from a quarry, dragging them to the pyramid, and using scaffolding or levering
to get them on top of the existing stones.
You may or may not have wheels (as in logs?) and animal power to help
you, but that just increases the time it takes.
Enough people, time, and sophisticated enough stone carving tools, and
it can be done in a lifetime or less, maybe a decade or less.
Apparently, my friend didn’t think of all these
objections to her “hypothesis” (better just called a belief). She’d stumbled across one fact, the similarities
between old and new world pyramids, and that was good enough for her; there was little or no further researching,
or thinking, or skepticism. I have an
unpleasant feeling that that is the way many if not most people think,
especially B people (As can’t do this).
They find one or two facts (or factoids even) which suggest an exciting
idea, or one that fits a pre-existing idea, and if they look or think further
it is only to confirm the idea, which becomes a simple article of faith from
thereon.
I have used the word hypothesis occasionally here, as
though it is interchangeable with belief or idea, or even speculation, but to
the scientific mind the words hardly approach each other in their
meanings. I haven’t used the word theory
yet, which I will now, for again in many minds sets up an equivalency:
Belief/Idea/Speculation
= Hypothesis = Theory = Truth
It’s clear to me that my friend, though quite
intelligent, thought largely along these lines, while it’s a pretty standard
philosophical approach for most of Earth’s population. Unfortunately, it is wrong, dead wrong, a mistake no scientists worth rock salt would
ever make. I also think it is why B-type
people are much more prevalent than they ought to be. I also connect it with the authoritarian
thinking, mentioned in the last chapter, which can bury human curiosity under a
think, wet, cold, woolen blanket; for it is seriously, and even dangerously,
fallacy supporting. My friend was
intelligent, but she didn’t know how to think or question things. Shame, though I still respect her.
* * *
Belief/Idea/Speculation (BIS) = Hypothesis = Theory =
Truth.
Is this truly the way type Bs (not all, to be fair)
think? Type As, definitely not: they could not perform their jobs, or carry
on with their enthusiams, if they did. But
is it as common as I have implied? And
if it is, what is really wrong with it?
We are pretty much all after the truth, after all, and this could be a
formula for it, one I simply don’t appreciate for prejudices of my own.
Actually I don’t think it is all that too common as pessimism
would suggest, at least not in so pure a form.
But people do routinely make confusions here. This is important: a big part of science is giving words and
concepts precise, accurate meanings, ones that can then be used in almost
mathematical formulations. And so, if we
are to use the words/concepts here in like fashion, we must do the same. Then, perhaps, we can answer the question I
raised at the beginning of the section.
BIS’s are what most of our minds are filled with most
of the time, even, I strongly expect, most scientists. E.g., we Believe in an Idea called God, or
maybe various gods; or if we don’t, we still Speculate about whether our
sentience is a soul, and whether it survives death, by becoming, say, part of
some BIS called “cosmic consciousness”.
Or, to be less esoteric, we have plenty of BIS’s about the people in our
lives, about politics, economics, religion, and the many, many other things we “think
about without thinking about.”
I am not criticizing here. The human mind probably has to work this way,
if for no other reason that if we were as meticulous about science as we are
about everything else, it would be difficult to get anything done! Remember, too, our brains have been largely
wired by genes we’ve inherit from our stone age, uncivilized ancestors. Making “snap decisions” or acting on gut
feeling, without too much asking and exploring, was, for most of our evolution,
the better way to save your life and pass on your genes. But
the result is, we’re stuck with them, at least for the time being.
I think my friend’s idea about Egypt helping with new
world pyramid building is a textbook example of a BIS. It is so easy to bring this Idea down, by
being skeptical and thinking about
it, that she must have never done those things.
No doubt she just liked the idea so much, and, having one fact to
support it, simply assumed that meant it was true. Man BIS’s are based on the one fact fallacy.
* * *
Let’s focus our microscopes on the other three words of
the equation: Hypothesis, Theory, and Fact.
First thing that needs to be said is that, despite all
the = signs, from a scientific view they are not equals at all, but distinctly
different entities. At the same time I’ll
add up front that in fact they are also not really so distinctly different, but
overlap to considerable degrees.
Let’s start with the word hypothesis, and as usual, an
example of it. I think my
counter-arguments to my friend’s idea constitute a valid hypothesis. It is not theory, and certainly not fact, but
simple hypothesis. First of all, after
all I not only attacked the idea (with gusto, of course; all ideas should be
attacked with gusto), but presented counter-ideas of my own; for example why
pyramid building is natural for a well organized, stone age culture at an early
age, and why.
But I did not present any supporting evidence for that,
other than the “it should be obvious and here’s why” implication. Given that, you might dispute my claim to
hypothesis status! But I did give, I
believe, some pretty sound logic for it; more important than that, logic that can
be explored and tested to see whether it holds up to test.
“Whether it holds up to test” is a great deal of what
true hypotheses, the ones in type A minds, concern themselves with. For an hypothesis is a concept that proposes
something, or explains some phenomenon, and
which fits all known facts, contradicts none, and can be further tested (that
is, can it make predictions). I believe
my friend’s pseudo-hypothesis has actually failed this concept (in her defense,
though, she isn’t here to counter her critic, which really isn’t fair), while
mine passes muster – probably; I am not an expert in the subjects and there
could be facts difficult to fit into it – if only by the skin of its teeth. And, to reemphasize, it is nowhere near to
being a theory, or a fact itself.
I am taking a conservative approach here, as should all
scientists. At heart, we’re curmudgeons who
hale from Missouri and often don’t believe things even when we see them with our
own eyes (not a good reason to believe just about anything, by the way). Propose something to a scientist and the best
you’re likely to get is, “That’s interesting” along with appropriate body
language, or something like that.
Believe it or not, it’s a compliment.
Such are the basics behind hypotheses. So, next time some fascinating sounding
thought comes to you, wait until you’ve checked it against all the facts and
logic you can find, and think of some ways it could be further tested, before
you announce it to the world. Not that
the thought is automatically useless if you don’t; but then, you’ve just been
lucky. My friend was not lucky.
* * *
Theory and fact are more difficult to pin down, because
they really have multiple, sometimes interlocking, meanings. In common parlance, and often in science too,
theory just means an explanation for something, even if not a necessarily
proven true one (though it must have good evidence for it); in the former, common
parlance, case, but decidedly not for scientists, it is not even a necessarily clear,
well-supported explanation. So if, for
example, I propose an explanation for how stars form (already been done!), and
it passes the hypothesis examinations, people will call it a theory. But they might not call it a fact because it
still hasn’t passed enough testing.
Charles Darwin’s idea of evolution by natural selection
was initially an idea, then a hypothesis, and is now, as it is usually called,
a theory. It’s an explanation, true; but
it is also, because it has passed so many tests and has so much evidence on its
side, a fully-fledged fact as well.
Einstein’s theories of special and general relativity also get similar,
justified, status. As does the atomic
theory of matter. They’re explanations and they are facts. Nobody seriously disputes this.
At the same time, as a theory is in another sense also just
an hypothesis that has stood up to further testing and observation, such that it
can be a claim to fact that may or may not (though most facts do) explain other
facts, or support other theories. I’ll
put Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift in this arena. The theory says that the different continents
move around on the ocean beds, occasionally joining each other and then breaking
up, as shown below:
In fact, for much of its existence this theory wasn’t
even taken seriously even as an hypothesis by most of the scientific
community. This was partly Wegener’s
fault, for he proposed causes for continental drift that were clearly absurd –
I emphasize however that this really should not be regarded as evidence against
an hypothesis – and mostly (I believe) that community’s fault for not
supporting an out of league player (Wegener was a meteorologist by training,
not a geologist).
Currently, the theory now is not only clearly true, but
is a theory in both senses: continental
drift is a fact (with clear, proven causes), and it is a theory that explains
many other phenomena about Earth, ones that had puzzled scientists for a long
time. We now call it rightfully the theory of plate tectonics, after the true
causes of drift.
* * *
Fact. Now, don’t
go thinking that fact means “naked observation by the senses” or anything like
that. I already alluded to this, but
this is a good time to go further. If
observation really is equal to fact, then the (fact? – maybe you’re lying, or
psychotic) that you just saw someone walk through a wall of solid concrete
without smashing it apart in someway a fact, or merely an observation – that is
to say, a visual illusion? I’m sure you’ll
conclude the latter, even if you have no idea how the illusion was pulled off
or how convincing it is.
This may put us in a pickle. Facts aren’t observations, but don’t they
have to be, somehow, supported by observations?
But how do we know whether we’re being fooled or not by these other
observations?
One of the problems of science is that it really can’t make
indisputable proclamations about the universe.
This makes science vulnerable to “straw men” arguments, often easy to demolish,
but unfortunately inevitable if we want to keep it pure. Yet we can still make real progress here. For example, sticking with our
concrete-traversing man scenario, what would happen if we were to view it from
all viewpoints, even those slowed or speeded up in time? Why, somewhere the illusion would certainly
be revealed, for a lot of magic is based on the magician having his/her
audience in a chosen viewpoint. The
brain insists on interpreting sensory
input in certain ways, another evolutionary trap which actually is reasonable
but sometimes leads us to error.
This suggests a good way of determining fact (if not
with infinite certainty). We make our
observations from as many viewpoints as we can, and compare the results. If they agree, especially repeatedly, we
accept them as true; otherwise, they are spurious observations, fascinating
possibly but of little scientific value.
Of course, this is not always easy to do! Do two astronomers, gazing at the same phenomenon
a billion light-years in space, really constitute two viewpoints? In some ways yes, in others certainly
not. But it is the best we can do in
this case.
* * *
One conclusion of this chapter is that the dividing
line between hypothesis, theory, and fact is not always clear, in fact it can
be quite broad and grey, the subject of innumerable, passionate, debates. But, I maintain, the line between the first
part of the equation, the BIS, and the others is night and day. And, I emphasize further, this is the line
that is so precise in type A’s minds, but can get so muddled in type B’s. I think this is the main cause of why B’s
(say they) don’t get science and math, beyond any natural talents in either
areas.
So remember: you
can have all the ideas you want, but if you want them widely accepted as true,
you must eschew the BIS approach and embrace the scientific one. And good luck to you, for it can be and often
is a hard trek.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Kepler-22B; A Warning or Two
The recent discovery of
planet Kepler-22B (orbiting the sunlike star Kepler-22) has set off a flurry of
articles and other printed/spoken material speculating that we have at last
found another Earth-like planet in our immediate stellar neighborhood (the star
Kepler-22 is about 600 light-years from our sun, making it quite close insofar
as intra-galactic distances are concerned; the Milky way is approximately
100,000 light-years across).
In science however,
excitement must be tempered by sober examination of evidence, and there are some
good reasons why we should not get too excited by Kepler-22B just yet. In the first place, we don’t have a good estimate
of its mass yet, and probably won’t for a few more months. This is the most critical consideration as to
whether the new planet is a (relatively small) gas-giant world, like Neptune or
Uranus, only about half their diameters, or is truly an Earth-like planet, one
with a rocky core probably covered with deep oceans.
If the first scenario
is true is found to be the truth, this doesn’t automatically rule out life on
the new world. It might still possess
liquid water, here as cloud layers, and life could possibly begin in droplets
or drops of water seeded with ammonia, methane, hydrogen cyanide, and carbon
dioxide, a lá the Stanley Milgrim experiments of the 1950s. A distinct planetary surface is not actually
needed for life, or so current thinking runs.
However, its seems doubtful that such life would have evolved far beyond
the single cell, or prokaryotic, stage. Definitely
worth knowing however, if it turns out true.
The other,
mass-determined, probability is that of a “super Earth”, a planet like our own,
only considerably larger, and one probably covered by ocean-girdling waters and
a thick, greenhouse atmosphere. Again,
primitive life is a good candidate for the place, and here even complex,
multi-cellular organisms may have gotten a toe-hold. They could be swimmers and flyers, though
almost certainly little in the way of land dwellers, for there would be little
of any land to dwell on. Still, polar
icecaps might provide some of this. A
lot depends on the depth of the greenhouse effect, driven largely by water
vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. All
three gasses should be copiously produced by volcanism, so we shall see.
Volcanism in turn is driven by a hot liquid core containing sufficient amounts of radioactive
atoms, atoms like uranium-235/-238, thorium-232, potassium-40 and strontium-87. Earth has significant amounts of them (creating
also our strong magnetic field which protects us from the solar wind) because
the creation of our solar system was probably initiated by a supernova type-II
explosion, seeding us with heavier elements, but it is not clear whether
Kepler-22 was born under similar circumstances (it is not all that unlikely
however, so we can reasonably speculate it).
If not however, Kepler-22B might be frozen over, with little internal
heat or heavy elements, leading to few prospects for life.
All this is speculation
right now, but it may be of the purely academic kind, for other conditions are
needed for life. The biggest problem is
the apparent lack of large gas giant worlds, situated further out than Kepler-22B. They may still exist, in slightly different
orbital places than 22B, such that we don’t see their occultations from Earth;
doppler “wobbles” in the star’s spectrum might yet root them out.
If they are not found,
however, this is troubling for life’s prospects on 22B. Jupiter and Saturn stand as staunch shields
against a large number of asteroid and comet impacts to our planet, impacts
that nevertheless occur to a disturbing degree and which could wipe out all
life here if large enough ones occurred with sufficient frequency. But we have a couple of heavy duty bar
bouncers that either suck up those impacts themselves, or hurl the offending
rock/ice worldlets out of the solar system, or park them in the asteroid belt.
If Kepler-22B doesn’t
have its own bouncers, then it is probably being regularly pounded by asteroids
and comets, so much so that life can’t get started there. Now perhaps its not that bad a problem out
there because the Kepler-22 system was not the result of a supernova explosion;
but then there might not be enough heavy elements to make a hot, molten core,
with its attending strong magnetic field and copious atmospheric components.
Then there’s the other
problem, which I’m not certain is truly severe or not. Earth has an axial tilt of 23° , which is
almost perfect for our seasons and the life adapted to it. The tilt does not vary greatly, and supposedly we have
our large moon to largely thank for that.
The reasonable length of our day is also due largely to the moon. Frankly, I don’t know how large of a problem
this really is; with the exception of Uranus (with a 98° axial tilt, rotating
virtually on its side), all the planets rotate on roughly vertical axes to the
solar system’s orbital plane, and only Mercury and Venus have unusual days, in
the first case one locked in a 2:3 resonance with its solar orbit, and in the
second, Venus’, case a slow retrograde axial orbit (opposite to its movement
about the sun).
If these parameters are
important (as suggested by the “Rare Earth” hypothesis) then 22B could be
in big trouble, though this is not certain.
But all of these considerations, taken together, should keep our
enthusiasm in check as we explore Kepler-22B further.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Another Mixing Snafu
I just got
nailed on another reaction of household products, this time regular bleach with
toilet bleach. Remember that regular
bleach is just sodium hypochlorite dissolved in water:
NaOCl (H2O) ® Na+
+ OCl-
OCl- + H2O ↔ HOCl + OH-
H+ + Cl- + OCl-
®
OH- + Cl2
H+
+ Cl- + HOCl ® H2O + Cl2
In both of the
bottom reactions gaseous chlorine is generated in serious quantities. This is because often, not always but in this
case, which I would have known had I bothered to read the labels instead of
just assuming, toilet bleach is fairly concentrated hydrochloric acid. Needless to say it starting foaming at once,
and when I came had just enough to flush before being driven out, coughing and
tearing.
Lesson: read labels
on chemicals before using!
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