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Friday, September 5, 2025

Milankovitch cycles

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Past and future Milankovitch cycles via VSOP model
  • Graphic shows variations in five orbital elements:
      Axial tilt or obliquity (ε).
      Eccentricity (e).
      Precession index (e sin(ϖ))
  • Precession index and obliquity control insolation at each latitude:
      Daily-average insolation at top of atmosphere on summer solstice () at 65° N
  • Ocean sediment and Antarctic ice strata record ancient sea levels and temperatures:
      Benthic forams (57 widespread locations)
      Vostok ice core (Antarctica)
  • Vertical gray line shows present (2000 CE)

Milankovitch cycles describe the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements on its climate over thousands of years. The term was coined and named after the Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milanković. In the 1920s, he provided a more definitive and quantitative analysis than James Croll's earlier hypothesis that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession combined to result in cyclical variations in the intra-annual and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation at the Earth's surface, and that this orbital forcing strongly influenced the Earth's climatic patterns.

Earth movements

The Earth's rotation around its axis, and revolution around the Sun, evolve over time due to gravitational interactions with other bodies in the Solar System. The variations are complex, but a few cycles are dominant.

Circular orbit, no eccentricity
 
Example orbit with 0.5 eccentricity. Earth's orbit is much less eccentric.

The Earth's orbit varies between nearly circular and mildly elliptical (its eccentricity varies). When the orbit is more elongated, there is more variation in the distance between the Earth and the Sun, and in the amount of solar radiation, at different times in the year. In addition, the rotational tilt of the Earth (its obliquity) changes slightly. A greater tilt makes the seasons more extreme. Finally, the direction in the fixed stars pointed to by the Earth's axis changes (axial precession), while the Earth's elliptical orbit around the Sun rotates (apsidal precession). The combined effect of precession with eccentricity is that proximity to the Sun occurs during different astronomical seasons.

Milankovitch studied changes in these movements of the Earth, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Milankovitch emphasized the changes experienced at 65° north due to the great amount of land at that latitude. Land masses change surface temperature more quickly than oceans, mainly because convective mixing between shallow and deeper waters keeps the ocean surface relatively cooler. Similarly, the very large thermal inertia of the global ocean delays changes to Earth's average surface temperature when gradually driven by other forcing factors.

Orbital eccentricity

The Earth's orbit approximates an ellipse. Eccentricity measures the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies between nearly circular (theoretically the eccentricity can hit zero) and mildly elliptical (highest eccentricity was 0.0679 in the last 250 million years). Its geometric or logarithmic mean is 0.0019. The major component of these variations occurs with a period of 405,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). Other components have 95,000-year and 124,000-year cycles (with a beat period of 400,000 years). They loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.0167 and decreasing.

Eccentricity varies primarily due to the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn. The semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse, however, remains unchanged; according to perturbation theory, which computes the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is invariant. The orbital period (the length of a sidereal year) is also invariant, because according to Kepler's third law, it is determined by the semi-major axis. Longer-term variations are caused by interactions involving the perihelia and nodes of the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, and Jupiter.

Effect on temperature

The semi-major axis is a constant. Therefore, when Earth's orbit becomes more eccentric, the semi-minor axis shortens. This increases the magnitude of seasonal changes.

The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than four times the eccentricity. For Earth's current orbital eccentricity, incoming solar radiation varies by about 6.8%, while the distance from the Sun currently varies by only 3.4% (5.1 million km or 3.2 million mi or 0.034 au).

Perihelion presently occurs around 3 January, while aphelion is around 4 July. When the orbit is at its most eccentric, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more than at aphelion. However, the Earth's eccentricity is so small (at least at present) that the variation in solar irradiation is a minor factor in seasonal climate variation, compared to axial tilt and even compared to the relative ease of heating the larger land masses of the northern hemisphere.

Effect on lengths of seasons

Season durations
Year Northern
hemisphere
Southern
hemisphere
Date (UTC) Season
duration
2005 Winter solstice Summer solstice 21 December 2005 18:35 88.99 days
2006 Spring equinox Autumn equinox 20 March 2006 18:26 92.75 days
2006 Summer solstice Winter solstice 21 June 2006 12:26 93.65 days
2006 Autumn equinox Spring equinox 23 September 2006 4:03 89.85 days
2006 Winter solstice Summer solstice 22 December 2006 0:22 88.99 days
2007 Spring equinox Autumn equinox 21 March 2007 0:07 92.75 days
2007 Summer solstice Winter solstice 21 June 2007 18:06 93.66 days
2007 Autumn equinox Spring equinox 23 September 2007 9:51 89.85 days
2007 Winter solstice Summer solstice 22 December 2007 06:08  

The seasons are quadrants of the Earth's orbit, marked by the two solstices and the two equinoxes. Kepler's second law states that a body in orbit traces equal areas over equal times; its orbital velocity is highest around perihelion and lowest around aphelion. The Earth spends less time near perihelion and more time near aphelion. This means that the lengths of the seasons vary. Perihelion currently occurs around 3 January, so the Earth's greater velocity shortens winter and autumn in the northern hemisphere, and summer and spring in the southern hemisphere. Summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter, and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. In the southern hemisphere this is the reverse, winter is 4.66 days longer than summer, and autumn is 2.9 days longer than spring. Greater eccentricity increases the variation in the Earth's orbital velocity. Currently, however, the Earth's orbit is becoming less eccentric (more nearly circular). This will make the seasons in the immediate future more similar in length.

Axial tilt (obliquity)

22.1–24.5° range of Earth's obliquity.

The angle of the Earth's axial tilt with respect to the orbital plane (the obliquity of the ecliptic) varies between 22.1° and 24.5°, over a cycle of about 41,000 years. The current tilt is 23.44°, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt last reached its maximum in 8,700 BCE, which correlates with the beginning of the Holocene, the current geological epoch. It is now in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum around the year 11,800 CE. Increased tilt increases the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation, providing more solar radiation in each hemisphere's summer and less in winter. However, these effects are not uniform everywhere on the Earth's surface. Increased tilt increases the total annual solar radiation at higher latitudes, and decreases the total closer to the equator.

The current trend of decreasing tilt, by itself, will promote milder seasons (warmer winters and colder summers), as well as an overall cooling trend. Because most of the planet's snow and ice lies at high latitude, decreasing tilt may encourage the termination of an interglacial period (and lead to an overall cooler climate) and the onset of a glacial period for two reasons: 1) there is less overall summer insolation, and 2) there is less insolation at higher latitudes (which melts less of the previous winter's snow and ice).

Axial precession

Axial precessional movement.

Axial precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of about 25,700 years. Also known as the precession of the equinoxes, this motion means that eventually Polaris will no longer be the north pole star. This precession is caused by the tidal forces exerted by the Sun and the Moon on the rotating Earth; both contribute roughly equally to this effect.

Currently, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer. This means that solar radiation due to both the axial tilt inclining the southern hemisphere toward the Sun, and the Earth's proximity to the Sun, will reach maximum during the southern summer and reach minimum during the southern winter. These effects on heating are thus additive, which means that seasonal variation in irradiation of the southern hemisphere is more extreme. In the northern hemisphere, these two factors reach maximum at opposite times of the year: the north is tilted toward the Sun when the Earth is furthest from the Sun. The two effects work in opposite directions, resulting in less extreme variations in insolation.

In about 13,000 years, the north pole will be tilted toward the Sun when the Earth is at perihelion. Axial tilt and orbital eccentricity will both contribute their maximum increase in solar radiation during the northern hemisphere's summer. Axial precession will promote more extreme variation in irradiation of the northern hemisphere and less extreme variation in the south. When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, axial tilt will not be aligned with or against eccentricity.

Apsidal precession

Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse, as well as the rate of precession, are exaggerated for visualization.

The orbital ellipse itself precesses in space, in an irregular fashion, completing a full cycle in about 112,000 years relative to the fixed stars. Apsidal precession occurs in the plane of the ecliptic and alters the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the ecliptic. This happens primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. Smaller contributions are also made by the sun's oblateness and by the effects of general relativity that are well known for Mercury.

Apsidal precession combines with the 25,700-year cycle of axial precession (see above) to vary the position in the year that the Earth reaches perihelion. Apsidal precession shortens this period to about 21,000 years, at present. According to a relatively old source (1965), the average value over the last 300,000 years was 23,000 years, varying between 20,800 and 29,000 years.

Effects of precession on the seasons (using the Northern Hemisphere terms)

As the orientation of Earth's orbit changes, each season will gradually start earlier in the year. Precession means the Earth's nonuniform motion (see above) will affect different seasons. Winter, for instance, will be in a different section of the orbit. When the Earth's apsides (extremes of distance from the sun) are aligned with the equinoxes, the length of spring and summer combined will equal that of autumn and winter. When they are aligned with the solstices, the difference in the length of these seasons will be greatest.

Orbital inclination

The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit. This three-dimensional movement is known as "precession of the ecliptic" or "planetary precession". Earth's current inclination relative to the invariable plane (the plane that represents the angular momentum of the Solar System—approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter) is 1.57°. Milankovitch did not study planetary precession. It was discovered more recently and measured, relative to Earth's orbit, to have a period of about 70,000 years. When measured independently of Earth's orbit, but relative to the invariable plane, however, precession has a period of about 100,000 years. This period is very similar to the 100,000-year eccentricity period. Both periods closely match the 100,000-year pattern of glacial events.

Theory constraints

Tabernas Desert, Spain: Cycles can be observed in the colouration and resistance of different sediment strata

Materials taken from the Earth have been studied to infer the cycles of past climate. Antarctic ice cores contain trapped air bubbles whose ratios of different oxygen isotopes are a reliable proxy for global temperatures around the time the ice was formed. Study of this data concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by northern hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis. Similar astronomical hypotheses had been advanced in the 19th century by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll, and others.

Analysis of deep-ocean cores and of lake depths, and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton provide additional validation through physical evidence. Climate records contained in a 1,700 ft (520 m) core of rock drilled in Arizona show a pattern synchronized with Earth's eccentricity, and cores drilled in New England match it, going back 215 million years.

100,000-year issue

Of all the orbital cycles, Milankovitch believed that obliquity had the greatest effect on climate, and that it did so by varying the summer insolation in northern high latitudes. Therefore, he deduced a 41,000-year period for ice ages. However, subsequent research has shown that ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciation over the last million years have been at a period of 100,000 years, which matches the eccentricity cycle. Various explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation or various feedbacks (from carbon dioxide, or ice sheet dynamics). Some models can reproduce the 100,000-year cycles as a result of non-linear interactions between small changes in the Earth's orbit and internal oscillations of the climate system. In particular, the mechanism of the stochastic resonance was originally proposed in order to describe this interaction.

Jung-Eun Lee of Brown University proposes that precession changes the amount of energy that Earth absorbs, because the southern hemisphere's greater ability to grow sea ice reflects more energy away from Earth. Moreover, Lee says, "Precession only matters when eccentricity is large. That's why we see a stronger 100,000-year pace than a 21,000-year pace." Some others have argued that the length of the climate record is insufficient to establish a statistically significant relationship between climate and eccentricity variations.

Transition changes

Variations of cycle times, curves determined from ocean sediments.
420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok, Antarctica research station, with more recent times on the left.

From 1–3 million years ago, climate cycles matched the 41,000-year cycle in obliquity. After one million years ago, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurred with a switch to the 100,000-year cycle matching eccentricity. The transition problem refers to the need to explain what changed one million years ago. The MPT can now be reproduced in numerical simulations that include a decreasing trend in carbon dioxide and glacially induced removal of regolith.

Interpretation of unsplit peak variances

Even the well-dated climate records of the last million years do not exactly match the shape of the eccentricity curve. Eccentricity has component cycles of 95,000 and 125,000 years. Some researchers, however, say the records do not show these peaks, but only indicate a single cycle of 100,000 years. The split between the two eccentricity components, however, is observed at least once in a drill core from the 500-million year-old Scandinavian Alum Shale.

Unsynced stage five observation

Deep-sea core samples show that the interglacial interval known as marine isotope stage 5 began 130,000 years ago. This is 10,000 years before the solar forcing that the Milankovitch hypothesis predicts. (This is also known as the causality problem because the effect precedes the putative cause.)

Present and future conditions

Past and future estimations of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the summer solstice, at 65° N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e; the blue dot indicates current conditions (2000 CE).

Since orbital variations are predictable, any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate, with two caveats: the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not definitive; and non-orbital effects can be important (for example, the human impact on the environment principally increases greenhouse gases resulting in a warmer climate).

An often-cited 1980 orbital model by Imbrie predicted "the long-term cooling trend that began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years." Another work suggests that solar insolation at 65° N will reach a peak of 460 W·m−2 in around 6,500 years, before decreasing back to current levels (450 W·m−2) in around 16,000 years. Earth's orbit will become less eccentric for about the next 100,000 years, so changes in this insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity, and should not decline enough to permit a new glacial period in the next 50,000 years.

Other celestial bodies

Mars

Since 1972, speculation sought a relationship between the formation of Mars' alternating bright and dark layers in the polar layered deposits, and the planet's orbital climate forcing. In 2002, Laska, Levard, and Mustard showed ice-layer radiance, as a function of depth, correlate with the insolation variations in summer at the Martian north pole, similar to palaeoclimate variations on Earth. They also showed Mars' precession had a period of about 51 kyr, obliquity had a period of about 120 kyr, and eccentricity had a period ranging between 95 and 99 kyr. In 2003, Head, Mustard, Kreslavsky, Milliken, and Marchant proposed Mars was in an interglacial period for the past 400 kyr, and in a glacial period between 400 and 2100 kyr, due to Mars' obliquity exceeding 30°. At this extreme obliquity, insolation is dominated by the regular periodicity of Mars' obliquity variation. Fourier analysis of Mars' orbital elements, show an obliquity period of 128 kyr, and a precession index period of 73 kyr.

Mars has no moon large enough to stabilize its obliquity, which has varied from 10 to 70 degrees. This would explain recent observations of its surface compared to evidence of different conditions in its past, such as the extent of its polar caps.

Outer Solar system

Saturn's moon Titan has a cycle of approximately 60,000 years that could change the location of the methane lakes. Neptune's moon Triton has a variation similar to Titan's, which could cause its solid nitrogen deposits to migrate over long time scales.

Exoplanets

Scientists using computer models to study extreme axial tilts have concluded that high obliquity could cause extreme climate variations, and while that would probably not render a planet uninhabitable, it could pose difficulty for land-based life in affected areas. Most such planets would nevertheless allow development of both simple and more complex lifeforms. Although the obliquity they studied is more extreme than Earth ever experiences, there are scenarios 1.5 to 4.5 billion years from now, as the Moon's stabilizing effect lessens, where obliquity could leave its current range and the poles could eventually point almost directly at the Sun.

Isotopes of hydrogen

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Isotopes of hydrogen (1H)
Main isotopes Decay
Isotope abun­dance half-life (t1/2) mode pro­duct
1H 99.9855% stable
2H 0.0145% stable
3H trace 12.32 y β 3He
Abundance of deuterium is highly variable

Standard atomic weight Ar°(H)

  • [1.007841.00811]
  • 1.0080±0.0002 (abridged)

Hydrogen (1H) has three naturally occurring isotopes: 1H, 2H, and 3H. 1H and 2H are stable, while 3H has a half-life of 12.32 years. Heavier isotopes also exist; all are synthetic and have a half-life of less than 1 zeptosecond (10−21 s).

Hydrogen is the only element whose isotopes have different names that remain in common use today: 2H is deuterium and 3H is tritium. The symbols D and T are sometimes used for deuterium and tritium; IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry) accepts said symbols, but recommends the standard isotopic symbols 2H and 3H, to avoid confusion in alphabetic sorting of chemical formulas1H, with no neutrons, may be called protium to disambiguate. (During the early study of radioactivity, some other heavy radioisotopes were given names, but such names are rarely used today.)

The three most stable isotopes of hydrogen: protium (A = 1), deuterium (A = 2), and tritium (A = 3)

List of isotopes

Note: "y" means year, but "ys" means yoctosecond (10−24 second).

Nuclide
Z N Isotopic mass (Da)

Half-life Decay
mode


Daughter
isotope


Spin and
parity

Natural abundance (mole fraction) Note
Normal proportion Range of variation
1H 1 0 1.007825031898(14) Stable 1/2+ [0.99972, 0.99999] protium
2H (D)1 1 2.014101777844(15) Stable 1+ [0.00001, 0.00028] deuterium
3H (T) 1 2 3.016049281320(81) 12.32(2) y β 3He 1/2+ trace
tritium
4H 1 3 4.02643(11) 139(10) ys n 3H 2−

5H 1 4 5.03531(10) 86(6) ys 2n 3H (1/2+)

6H 1 5 6.04496(27) 294(67) ys

2−#

7H 1 6 7.052750(108)# 652(558) ys

1/2+#


Hydrogen-1 (protium)

1H consists of 1 proton and 1 electron: the only stable nuclide with no neutrons (see diproton for a discussion of why no others exist).

1H (atomic mass 1.007825031898(14) Da) is the most common hydrogen isotope, with an abundance of > 99.98%. Its nucleus consists of only a single proton, so it has the formal name protium.

The proton has never been observed to decay, so 1H is considered stable. It is the only stable nuclide with no neutrons. Some Grand Unified Theories proposed in the 1970s predict that proton decay can occur with a half-life between 1028 and 1036 years. If so, then 1H (and all nuclei now believed to be stable) are only observationally stable. As of 2018, experiments have shown that the mean lifetime of the proton is > 3.6×1029 years.

Hydrogen-2 (deuterium)

Deuterium consists of 1 proton, 1 neutron, and 1 electron.

Deuterium, 2H (atomic mass 2.014101777844(15) Da), the other stable hydrogen isotope, has one proton and one neutron in its nucleus, called a deuteron. 2H comprises 26–184 ppm (by population, not mass) of hydrogen on Earth; the lower number tends to be found in hydrogen gas and higher enrichment (150 ppm) is typical of seawater. Deuterium on Earth has been enriched with respect to its initial concentration in the Big Bang and outer Solar System (≈ 27 ppm, atom fraction) and older parts of the Milky Way (≈ 23 ppm). Presumably the differential concentration of deuterium in the inner Solar System is due to the lower volatility of deuterium gas and compounds, enriching deuterium fractions in comets and planets exposed to significant heat from the Sun over billions of years of Solar System evolution.

Deuterium is not radioactive, and is not a significant toxicity hazard. Water enriched in 2H is called heavy water. Deuterium and its compounds are used as a non-radioactive label in chemical experiments and in solvents for 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Heavy water is used as a neutron moderator and coolant for nuclear reactors. Deuterium is also a potential fuel for commercial nuclear fusion.

Hydrogen-3 (tritium)

Tritium consists of 1 proton, 2 neutrons, and 1 electron.

Tritium, 3H (atomic mass 3.016049281320(81) Da), has one proton and two neutrons in its nucleus (called a triton). It is radioactive, β decaying into helium-3 with half-life 12.32 years. Traces of 3H occur naturally due to cosmic rays interacting with atmospheric gases. 3H has also been released in nuclear tests. It is used in fusion bombs, as a tracer in isotope geochemistry, and in self-powered lighting devices.

The most common way to produce 3H is to bombard a natural isotope of lithium, 6Li, with neutrons in a nuclear reactor.

Tritium can be used in chemical and biological labeling experiments as a radioactive tracerDeuterium–tritium fusion uses 2H and 3H as its main reactants, giving energy through the loss of mass when the two nuclei collide and fuse at high temperatures.

Hydrogen-4

4H (atomic mass 4.02643(11) Da), with one proton and three neutrons, is a highly unstable isotope. It has been synthesized in the laboratory by bombarding tritium with fast-moving deuterons; the triton captured a neutron from the deuteron. The presence of 4H was deduced by detecting the emitted protons. It decays by neutron emission into 3H with a half-life of 139(10) ys (1.39(10)×10−22 s).

In the 1955 satirical novel The Mouse That Roared, the name quadium was given to the 4H that powered the Q-bomb that the Duchy of Grand Fenwick captured from the United States.

Hydrogen-5

5H (atomic mass 5.03531(10) Da), with one proton and four neutrons, is highly unstable. It has been synthesized in the lab by bombarding tritium with fast-moving tritons; one triton captures two neutrons from the other, becoming a nucleus with one proton and four neutrons. The remaining proton may be detected, and the existence of 5H deduced. It decays by double neutron emission into 3H and has a half-life of 86(6) ys (8.6(6)×10−23 s) – the shortest half-life of any known nuclide.

Hydrogen-6

6H (atomic mass 6.04496(27) Da) has one proton and five neutrons. It has a half-life of 294(67) ys (2.94(67)×10−22 s). In 2025, 6H was produced using an 855 MeV electron beam impinging upon on a 7Li target.

Hydrogen-7

7H (atomic mass 7.05275(108) Da) has one proton and six neutrons. It was first synthesized in 2003 by a group of Russian, Japanese and French scientists at Riken's Radioactive Isotope Beam Factory by bombarding hydrogen with helium-8 atoms; all six of the helium-8's neutrons were donated to the hydrogen nucleus. The two remaining protons were detected by the "Riken telescope", a device made of several layers of sensors, positioned behind the target of the RI Beam cyclotron. 7H has a half-life of 652(558) ys (6.52(558)×10−22 s).

Decay chains

4H and 5H decay directly to 3H, which then decays to stable 3He. Decay of the heaviest isotopes, 6H and 7H, has not been experimentally observed.

Decay times are in yoctoseconds (10−24 s) for all these isotopes except 3H, which is in years.

  • ( ) – Uncertainty (1σ) is given in concise form in parentheses after the corresponding last digits.
  • Modes of decay:
    n: Neutron emission
  • Bold symbol as daughter – Daughter product is stable.
  • ( ) spin value – Indicates spin with weak assignment arguments.
  • # – Values marked # are not purely derived from experimental data, but at least partly from trends of neighboring nuclides (TNN).
  • Unless proton decay occurs.
  • This and 3He are the only stable nuclides with more protons than neutrons.
  • Produced in Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
  • One of the few stable odd–odd nuclei
  • Produced in Big Bang nucleosynthesis, but its short life ensures that none today is primordial, and all then formed should have decayed to 3He.
  • Sahara pump theory

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_pump_theory
    Carvings of fauna common in the Sahara during the wet phase, found at Tassili in the central Sahara

    The Sahara pump theory is a hypothesis that explains how flora and fauna migrated between Eurasia and Africa via a land bridge in the Levant region (the Levantine corridor). It posits that extended periods of abundant rainfall lasting many thousands of years (pluvial periods) in Africa are associated with a "wet-green Sahara" phase, during which larger lakes and more rivers existed (see North African climate cycles). This caused changes in the flora and fauna found in the area. Migration along the river corridor was halted when, during a desert phase 1.8–0.8 million years ago (mya), the Nile ceased to flow completely and possibly flowed only temporarily in other periods due to the geologic uplift (Nubian Swell) of the Nile River region.

    Mechanism

    During periods of a wet or Green Sahara, the Sahara and Arabia become a savanna grassland and African flora and fauna become common. Following inter-pluvial arid periods, the Sahara area then reverts to desert conditions, usually as a result of the retreat of the West African Monsoon southwards. Evaporation exceeds precipitation, the level of water in lakes like Lake Chad falls, and rivers become dry wadis. Flora and fauna previously widespread as a result retreat northwards to the Atlas Mountains, southwards into West Africa, or eastwards into the Nile Valley and thence either southeast to the Ethiopian Highlands and Kenya or northeast across the Sinai into Asia. This separates populations of some of the species in areas with different climates, forcing them to adapt, possibly giving rise to allopatric speciation.

    Plio-Pleistocene

    The Plio-Pleistocene migrations to Africa included the Caprinae in two waves at 3.2 Ma and 2.7–2.5 Ma; Nyctereutes at 2.5 Ma, and Equus at 2.3 Ma. Hippotragus migrated at 2.6 Ma from Africa to the Siwaliks of the Himalayas. Asian bovids moved to Europe and to and from Africa. The primate Theropithecus experienced contraction and its fossils are found only in Europe and Asia, while Homo and Macaca settled wide ranges.

    185,000–20,000 years ago

    Between about 133 and 122 thousand years ago (kya), the southern parts of the Saharan-Arabian Desert experienced the start of the Abbassia Pluvial, a wet period with increased monsoonal precipitation, around 100-200 mm/year. This allowed Eurasian biota to travel to Africa and vice versa. The growth of speleothems (which requires rainwater) was detected in Hol-Zakh, Ashalim, Even-Sid, Ma'ale-ha-Meyshar, Ktora Cracks, Nagev Tzavoa Cave. In Qafzeh and Es Skuhl caves, where at that time precipitation was 600–1000 mm/year, the remains of Qafzeh-Skhul type anatomically modern humans are dated from this period, but human occupation seems to end in the later arid period.

    The Red Sea coastal route was extremely arid before 140 and after 115 kya. Slightly wetter conditions appear at 90–87 kya, but it still was just one tenth the rainfall around 125 kya. Speleothems are detected only in Even-Sid-2.

    In the southern Negev Desert speleothems did not grow between 185–140 kya (MIS 6), 110–90 (MIS 5.4–5.2), nor after 85 kya nor during most of the interglacial period (MIS 5.1), the glacial period and Holocene. This suggests that the southern Negev was arid to hyper-arid in these periods.

    The coastal route around the western Mediterranean may have been open at times during the last glacial; speleothems grew in Hol-Zakh and in Nagev Tzavoa Caves. Comparison of speleothem formation with calcite horizons suggests that the wet periods were limited to only tens or hundreds of years.

    From 60–30 kya there were extremely dry conditions in many parts of Africa.

    Last Glacial Maximum

    An example of the Saharan pump has occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). During the Last Glacial Maximum the Sahara desert was more extensive than it is now with the extent of the tropical forests being greatly reduced. During this period, the lower temperatures reduced the strength of the Hadley cell whereby rising tropical air of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) brings rain to the tropics, while dry descending air, at about 20 degrees north, flows back to the equator and brings desert conditions to this region. This phase is associated with high rates of wind-blown mineral dust, found in marine cores that come from the north tropical Atlantic.

    African humid period

    Around 12,500 BC, the amount of dust in the cores in the Bølling–Allerød phase suddenly plummets and shows a period of much wetter conditions in the Sahara, indicating a Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) event (a sudden warming followed by a slower cooling of the climate). The moister Saharan conditions had begun about 12,500 BC, with the extension of the ITCZ northward in the northern hemisphere summer, bringing moist wet conditions and a savanna climate to the Sahara, which (apart from a short dry spell associated with the Younger Dryas) peaked during the Holocene thermal maximum climatic phase at 4000 BC when mid-latitude temperatures seem to have been between 2 and 3 degrees warmer than in the recent past. Analysis of Nile River deposited sediments in the delta also shows this period had a higher proportion of sediments coming from the Blue Nile, suggesting higher rainfall also in the Ethiopian Highlands. This was caused principally by a stronger monsoonal circulation throughout the sub-tropical regions, affecting India, Arabia and the Sahara. Lake Victoria only recently became the source of the White Nile and dried out almost completely around 15 kya.

    The sudden subsequent movement of the ITCZ southwards with a Heinrich event (a sudden cooling followed by a slower warming), linked to changes with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, led to a rapid drying out of the Saharan and Arabian regions, which quickly became desert. This is linked to a marked decline in the scale of the Nile floods between 2700 and 2100 BC. One theory proposed that humans accelerated the drying out period from 6,000–2,500 BC by pastoralists overgrazing available grassland.

    Human migration

    The Saharan pump has been used to date a number of waves of human migration from Africa, namely:

    Milankovitch cycles

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Past and f...