GCOS is a system that comprises the climate-relevant components
of many contributing observing systems and networks. Its mission is to
help ensure that these contributing systems, taken as a whole, provide
the comprehensive information on the global climate system that is
required by users, including individuals, national and international
organizations, institutions and agencies. The programme promotes the
sustained provision and availability of reliable physical, chemical and
biological observations and data records for the total climate system -
across the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains, including the hydrological cycle, the carbon cycle and the cryosphere.
Structure
The primary observing systems contributing to the GCOS are the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), the Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), and the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission-led Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).
A number of other domain-based and cross-domain research and
operational observing systems also provide important contributions and
encompass both in-situ and satellite observations. GCOS is both
supported by and supports the international scientific and technical
community, and the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) co-sponsors the expert panels set up by GCOS for the
atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The composite observing
system designated by GCOS serves as the climate-observation component of
the broader Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), and at the same time a number of specific observing-system initiatives of GEOSS contribute to the GCOS.
Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
GCOS has identified 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) considered to be feasible for global climate observation and to have a high impact on the requirements of the UNFCCC
and other stakeholders. There is a strong need for sustained
observation of these ECVs, as the observations are needed for the
generation and updating of global climate products and derived
information. GCOS and its partners are developing ways of improving the
generation and supply of data products relating to the ECVs.
Expert Panels
Three expert panels have been established by the GCOS Steering Committee to define the observations needed in each of the main global domains - Atmosphere,
oceans, and land - to prepare specific programme elements and to make
recommendations for implementation. GCOS is both supported by and
supports the international scientific community, and therefore the three
expert panels are co-sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP). The Atmospheric, Ocean, and Terrestrial Observation Panel for
Climate gather scientific and technical experts in the respective areas
to generate inputs from these fields to the climate observing community.
Those expert panels report to the GCOS Steering Committee, and have
been established to define the observations needed in each of the main
global domains to prepare scientific programme-elements and to make
recommendations for implementation.
Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC)
AOPC
was established in recognition of the need for specific scientific and
technical input concerning atmospheric observations for climate. Its aim
is to ensure the quality, long-term homogeneity and continuity of data
needed. AOPC supports and is supported by the WMO Integrated Global
Observing System (WIGOS).
Key activities of AOPC are:
- Assessing the current state of the atmospheric component of the
global observing system for climate and identify its gaps and
adequacies;
- Securing the implementation of designated GCOS Networks and
promote the establishment and enhancement of new and current systems to
provide long-term and consistent data and information for Essential
Climate Variables, such as earth radiation budget, surface radiation, greenhouse gases, water vapour, clouds and aerosols;
- Liaising with relevant research, operational and end-user
bodies in order to determine and maintain the requirements for data to
monitor, understand and predict the dynamical, physical and chemical
state of the atmosphere and its interface on seasonal and multi-decadal
time scales, on both global and regional levels;
- Promoting the transfer and accessibility to the user community,
as well as the rehabilitation of historical observational and proxy
climate data sets.
Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC)
OOPC,
co-sponsored by GOOS, as well as GCOS and WCRP, is a scientific and
technical advisory group charged with making recommendations for a
sustained global ocean observing system for climate in support of the
goals of its sponsors. This includes recommendations for phased
implementation. The Panel also aids in the development of strategies for
evaluation and evolution of the system and of its recommendations, and
supports global ocean observing activities by interested parties through
liaison and advocacy for the agreed observing plans.
OOPC recognizes the need for sustainable ocean observations, and
the increased need to connect to societal issues in the coastal zone.
OOPC's role has evolved to oversee the ocean component of the GCOS, and
the physical variables for GOOS, while defining long-term observing
requirements for climate research of WCRP.
Key activities of OOPC are:
- Providing advice on scientific and technical requirements to
the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology (JCOMM), which is responsible for the coordination and implementation of platform-based observing system components;
- Coordinate ocean observing networks that contribute to ocean ECVs by encouraging GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs) and national commitments to global observing networks, and promoting common best practices and observing standards;
- Reviewing and prioritizing requirements for sustained ocean
observations of the physical Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs), and ocean
ECVs, to engage the broad stakeholder community, to assess the
readiness of observing technologies and adequacy of present global key
variable observations, and to provide a source of technical advice on
the development of national coastal and ocean observing requirements and
observing system implementation plans.
Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate (TOPC)
TOPC was set up to develop a balanced and integrated system of-in situ and satellite observations of the terrestrial ecosystem.
The Panel focuses on the identification of terrestrial observation
requirements, assisting the establishment of observing networks for
climate, providing guidance on observation standards and norms,
facilitating access to climate data and information and its
assimilation, and promoting climate studies and assessments.
Key activities of TOPC are:
- Identification of measurable terrestrial (biosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere)
properties and key variables (ECVs) that control the physical,
biological and chemical processes affecting climate, and are indicators
of climate change;
- Coordination of activities with other global observing system
panels and task groups to ensure the consistency of requirements with
the overall programmes;
- Assessing and monitoring the adequacy of terrestrial observing networks such as the Global Terrestrial Networks (GTNs), and promoting their integration and development to measure and exchange climate data and information;
- Identification of gaps in present observing systems and designs to ensure long-term monitoring of terrestrial ECVs.
Networks
One of the first tasks of the GCOS programme was to define a subset of the World Weather Watch (WWW)
stations appropriate for basic climate monitoring. The subset of
roughly 1000 baseline surface stations became the GCOS Surface Network
(GSN), while a subset of 150 upper air stations was designated as the GCOS Upper-Air Network (GUAN).
These were built on existing WMO classifications and became the initial
baseline components of the atmospheric networks. Considerations for
selection of GSN included spatial distribution, length and quality of
record, long-term commitment, and degree of urbanization. Similar
considerations were used for GUAN. Designation of these networks
benefited both the GCOS and the National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHS). For NMHSs, designation of a station as part of the
global climate network helped sustain support for these sites with
long-term records. The networks provided the foundation for the Regional
Basic Climatological Network, which provides far greater spatial detail on the variability of climate.
Recognizing that a balance has to be struck between standards and
completeness of ground-based measurement, the GCOS programme recognized
a hierarchy of observational networks and systems, comprising
comprehensive, baseline and reference networks based on assumptions of
spatial sampling needs.
An example of a particularly successful step forward in
implementing a global observing system for climate is the initiation of a
reference network for upper-air observations - the GCOS Reference
Upper-Air Network (GRUAN).
The network is the prototype of a hybrid observing system, combining
operational upper-air measurement sites with research sites and
providing high-quality reference data for atmospheric profiles. GRUAN
sites are undertaking high-quality atmospheric profile measurements that
will help understand trends in upper-air ECVs, assist in investigating
processes in the upper-troposphere and lower stratosphere, and provide
data for calibrating satellite measurements and validating independent
climate analyses and models. At GRUAN sites, the principles of quality,
traceability and complete error characterization have been heeded, for
at least part of the observing programme. The network is planned to grow
over its initial size of 15 stations in coming years; introducing
climate quality standards to a larger number of sites.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an internationalenvironmental treaty adopted on 9 May 1992 and opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
from 3 to 14 June 1992. It then entered into force on 21 March 1994,
after a sufficient number of countries had ratified it. The UNFCCC
objective is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
The framework sets non-binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions for
individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms. Instead,
the framework outlines how specific international treaties (called
"protocols" or "Agreements") may be negotiated to specify further action
towards the objective of the UNFCCC.
Initially, an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC)
produced the text of the Framework Convention during its meeting in New
York from 30 April to 9 May 1992. The UNFCCC was adopted on 9 May 1992
and opened for signature on 4 June 1992.
The UNFCCC has 197 parties as of December 2015. The convention enjoys
broad legitimacy, largely due to its nearly universal membership.
The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol
was concluded and established legally binding obligations for developed
countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the period
2008–2012. The 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference
produced an agreement stating that future global warming should be
limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.
The Protocol was amended in 2012 to encompass the period 2013–2020 in
the Doha Amendment, which as of December 2015 had not entered into
force. In 2015 the Paris Agreement
was adopted, governing emission reductions from 2020 on through
commitments of countries in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs),
with a view of lowering the target to 1.5 °C. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016.
One of the first tasks set by the UNFCCC was for signatory nations to establish national greenhouse gas inventories of greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and removals, which were used to create the 1990
benchmark levels for accession of Annex I countries to the Kyoto
Protocol and for the commitment of those countries to GHG reductions.
Updated inventories must be submitted annually by Annex I countries.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signature at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro (known by its popular title, the Earth Summit).
On 12 June 1992, 154 nations signed the UNFCCC, which upon ratification
committed signatories' governments to reduce atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases with the goal of "preventing dangerous
anthropogenic interference with Earth's climate system". This
commitment would require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions (see the later section, "Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations")
Article 3(1) of the Convention
states that Parties should act to protect the climate system on the
basis of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities", and that developed country Parties should "take the lead"
in addressing climate change. Under Article 4, all Parties make general
commitments to address climate change through, for example, climate
change mitigation and adapting to the eventual impacts of climate
change. Article 4(7) states:[9]
The extent to which developing country Parties will
effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend
on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their
commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and
transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic
and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.
The Framework Convention specifies the aim of Annex I Parties stabilizing their greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases not regulated under the Montreal Protocol) at 1990 levels, by the year 2000.
After the signing of the UNFCCC treaty, Parties to the UNFCCC have met at conferences ("Conferences of the Parties" – COPs) to discuss how to achieve the treaty's aims. At the 1st Conference of the Parties
(COP-1), Parties decided that the aim of Annex I Parties stabilizing
their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000 was "not adequate", and further discussions at later conferences led to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol sets emissions targets for developed countries which are binding under international law.
The Kyoto Protocol has had two commitment periods, the first of
which lasted from 2008–2012. The second one runs from 2013-2020 and is
based on the Doha Amendment to the Protocol, which has not entered into
force.
The US has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, while Canada
denounced it in 2012. The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by all the
other Annex I Parties.
All Annex I Parties, excluding the US, have participated in the
1st Kyoto commitment period. 37 Annex I countries and the EU have agreed
to second-round Kyoto targets. These countries are Australia, all
members of the European Union, Belarus, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Norway,
Switzerland, and Ukraine.
Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have stated that they may withdraw from
the Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second
round targets.
Japan, New Zealand, and Russia have participated in Kyoto's first-round
but have not taken on new targets in the second commitment period.
Other developed countries without second-round targets are Canada (which
withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012) and the United States.
All countries that remained parties to the Kyoto Protocol are in full compliance with their first commitment period targets.
Paris Agreement
In 2011, parties adopted the "Durban Platform for Enhanced Action".
As part of the Durban Platform, parties have agreed to "develop a
protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force
under the Convention applicable to all Parties". At Durban and Doha,
parties noted "with grave concern" that current efforts to hold global
warming to below 2 or 1.5 °C relative to the pre-industrial level appear
inadequate.
In 2015, all (then) 196 parties to the convention came together for the UN Climate Change Conference
in Paris 30 November - 12 December and adopted by consensus the Paris
Agreement, aimed at limiting global warming to less than two degrees
Celsius, and pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016.
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
At the 19th session of the Conference of the Parties in Warsaw in 2013, the UNFCCC created a mechanism for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to be submitted in the run up to the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties in Paris (COP21) in 2015.
Countries were given freedom and flexibility to ensure these climate
change mitigation and adaptation plans were nationally appropriate;
this flexibility, especially regarding the types of actions to be
undertook, allowed for developing countries to tailor their plans to
their specific adaptation and mitigation needs, as well as towards other
needs.
A "family photo" organized by Greenpeace, at the entrance to the United Nations, with a banner reading "We Will Move Ahead"
In the aftermath of COP21, these INDCs became Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) when a country ratified the Paris Agreement, unless
a new NDC was submitted to the UNFCCC at the same time. The 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties
(COP22) in Marrakesh focused on these Nationally Determined
Contributions and their implementation, after the Paris Agreement
entered into force on 4 November 2016.
The Climate and Development Knowledge Network
(CDKN) created a guide for NDC implementation, for the use of decision
makers in Less Developed Countries. In this guide, CDKN identified a
series of common challenges countries face in NDC implementation,
including how to:
build awareness of the need for, and benefits of, action among stakeholders, including key government ministries
mainstream and integrate climate change into national planning and development processes
strengthen the links between subnational and national government plans on climate change
build capacity to analyse, develop and implement climate policy
establish a mandate for coordinating actions around NDCs and driving their implementation
address resource constraints for developing and implementing climate change policy.
As part of the Bali Action Plan, adopted in 2007, all developed
country Parties have agreed to "quantified emission limitation and
reduction objectives, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among
them, taking into account differences in their national circumstances."
Developing country Parties agreed to "[nationally] appropriate
mitigation actions [NAMAs] context of sustainable development, supported
and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a
measurable, reportable and verifiable manner." 42 developed countries have submitted mitigation targets to the UNFCCC secretariat, as have 57 developing countries and the African Group (a group of countries within the UN).
Copenhagen Accord and CancĂșn agreements
As part of the 2009 Copenhagen negotiations, a number of countries produced the Copenhagen Accord. The Accord states that global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F). This may be strengthened in 2015 with a target to limit warming to below 1.5 °C.
The Accord does not specify what the baseline is for these temperature
targets (e.g., relative to pre-industrial or 1990 temperatures).
According to the UNFCCC, these targets are relative to pre-industrial
temperatures.
114 countries agreed to the Accord.
The UNFCCC secretariat notes that "Some Parties ... stated in their
communications to the secretariat specific understandings on the nature
of the Accord and related matters, based on which they have agreed to
[the Accord]." The Accord was not formally adopted by the Conference of
the Parties. Instead, the COP "took note of the Copenhagen Accord."
As part of the Accord, 17 developed country Parties and the EU-27 have submitted mitigation targets, as have 45 developing country Parties. Some developing country Parties have noted the need for international support in their plans.
As part of the CancĂșn agreements, developed and developing countries have submitted mitigation plans to the UNFCCC. These plans are compiled with those made as part of the Bali Action Plan.
Developing countries
At Berlin, CancĂșn, and Durban, the development needs of developing country parties were reiterated. For example, the Durban Platform reaffirms that:
[...] social and economic
development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding
priorities of developing country Parties, and that a low-emission
development strategy is central to sustainable development, and that the
share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow
to meet their social and development needs.
Interpreting article 2
The ultimate objective of the Framework Convention is to
"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [i.e., human-caused]
interference with the climate system". As is stated in the article 2 of the Convention, this "should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner".
Climate change mitigation scenarios: projected global greenhouse gas emissions, years 2000 to 2100
Climate change mitigation scenarios: projected changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, years 2000 to 2100
Climate change mitigation scenarios: projected global mean temperature, years 2000 to 2100
To stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations, global anthropogenic GHG emissions would need to peak then decline. Lower stabilization levels would require emissions to peak and decline earlier compared to higher stabilization levels. The graph above shows projected changes in annual global GHG emissions (measured in CO2-equivalents)
for various stabilization scenarios. The other two graphs show the
associated changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations (in CO2-equivalents)
and global mean temperature for these scenarios. Lower stabilization
levels are associated with lower magnitudes of global warming compared
to higher stabilization levels.
Projected global warming in 2100 for a range of emission scenarios
There is uncertainty over how GHG concentrations and global
temperatures will change in response to anthropogenic emissions (see climate change feedback and climate sensitivity).
The graph opposite shows global temperature changes in the year 2100
for a range of emission scenarios, including uncertainty estimates.
Dangerous anthropogenic interference
There are a range of views over what level of climate change is dangerous.
Scientific analysis can provide information on the risks of climate
change, but deciding which risks are dangerous requires value
judgements.
The global warming that has already occurred poses a risk to some human and natural systems (e.g., coral reefs). Higher magnitudes of global warming will generally increase the risk of negative impacts. According to Field et al. (2014),
climate change risks are "considerable" with 1 to 2 °C of global
warming, relative to pre-industrial levels. 4 °C warming would lead to
significantly increased risks, with potential impacts including
widespread loss of biodiversity and reduced global and regional food security.
Climate change policies may lead to costs that are relevant to the article 2.
For example, more stringent policies to control GHG emissions may
reduce the risk of more severe climate change, but may also be more
expensive to implement.
Projections
There is considerable uncertainty over future changes in
anthropogenic GHG emissions, atmospheric GHG concentrations, and
associated climate change. Without mitigation policies, increased energy demand and extensive use of fossil fuels
could lead to global warming (in 2100) of 3.7 to 4.8 °C relative to
pre-industrial levels (2.5 to 7.8 °C including climate uncertainty).
To have a likely chance of limiting global warming (in 2100) to
below 2 °C, GHG concentrations would need to be limited to around 450
ppm CO2-eq. The current trajectory of global emissions does not appear to be consistent with limiting global warming to below 1.5 or 2 °C.
Precautionary principle
In decision making, the precautionary principle
is considered when possibly dangerous, irreversible, or catastrophic
events are identified, but scientific evaluation of the potential damage
is not sufficiently certain (Toth et al., 2001, pp. 655–656). The precautionary principle implies an emphasis on the need to prevent such adverse effects.
Uncertainty is associated with each link of the causal chain of
climate change. For example, future GHG emissions are uncertain, as are
climate change damages. However, following the precautionary principle,
uncertainty is not a reason for inaction, and this is acknowledged in
Article 3.3 of the UNFCCC (Toth et al., 2001, p. 656).
Annex B: Parties listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol are
Annex I Parties with first- or second-round Kyoto greenhouse gas
emissions targets. The first-round targets apply over the years 2008–2012. As part of the 2012 Doha climate change talks,
an amendment to Annex B was agreed upon containing with a list of Annex
I Parties who have second-round Kyoto targets, which apply from
2013–2020. The amendments have not entered into force.
Least-developed countries
(LDCs): 47 Parties are LDCs, and are given special status under the
treaty in view of their limited capacity to adapt to the effects of
climate change.
Non-Annex I: Parties to the UNFCCC not listed in Annex I of the Convention are mostly low-income developing countries. Developing countries may volunteer to become Annex I countries when they are sufficiently developed.
List of parties
Annex I countries
There are 43 Annex I Parties including the European Union. These countries are classified as industrialized countries and economies in transition. Of these, 24 are Annex II Parties, including the European Union, and 14 are Economies in Transition.
Parties: Annexes, EU, OECD, EITs.
Conferences of the Parties
The United Nations Climate Change Conference are yearly conferences
held in the framework of the UNFCCC. They serve as the formal meeting of
the UNFCCC Parties (Conferences of the Parties) (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change, and beginning in the mid-1990s, to negotiate the Kyoto Protocol to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. From 2005 the Conferences have also served as the Meetings of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (CMP).
Also parties to the Convention that are not parties to the Protocol can
participate in Protocol-related meetings as observers. The first
conference (COP1) was held in 1995 in Berlin. The 3rd conference (COP3)
was held in Kyoto and resulted in the Kyoto protocol, which was amended
during the 2012 Doha Conference (COP18, CMP 8). The COP21 (CMP11) conference was held in Paris and resulted in adoption of the Paris Agreement. Negotiations for the Paris Agreement took place during COP22 in Marrakech, Morocco. The twenty-third COP ("COP23") was led by Fiji and took place in Bonn, Germany. COP24 was held in Katowice, Poland.
Subsidiary bodies
A subsidiary body is a committee that assists the Conference of the Parties. Subsidiary bodies include:
Permanents:
The Subsidiary Body of Scientific and Technological Advice
(SBSTA) is established by Article 9 of the Convention to provide the
Conference of the Parties and, as appropriate, its other subsidiary
bodies with timely information and advice on scientific and
technological matters relating to the Convention. It serves as a link
between information and assessments provided by expert sources (such as
the IPCC) and the COP, which focuses on setting policy.
The Subsidiary Body of Implementation
(SBI) is established by Article 10 of the Convention to assist the
Conference of the Parties in the assessment and review of the effective
implementation of the Convention. It makes recommendations on policy and
implementation issues to the COP and, if requested, to other bodies.
Temporary:
Ad hoc Group on Article 13 (AG13), active from 1995 to 1998;
Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM), active from 1995 to 1997;
Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, UN Campus, Bonn, seat of the secretariat
artwork: outdoor thermometer, symbolizing measurement of global temperature
The work under the UNFCCC is facilitated by a secretariat in Bonn,
Germany. The secretariat is established under Article 8 of the
Convention. It is headed by the Executive Secretary. The current
Executive Secretary, Patricia Espinosa, was appointed on 18 May 2016 by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and took office on 18 July 2016. She succeeded Christiana Figueres who held the office since 2010. Former Executive Secretaries have been Yvo de Boer (2006-2010), Joke Waller-Hunter (2002-2005) and Michael Zammit Cutajar (1995-2002).
Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE)
Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) is a term adopted by the UNFCCC
in 2015 to have a better name for this topic than "Article 6". It refers
to Article 6 of the Convention's original text (1992), focusing on six
priority areas: education, training, public awareness, public
participation, public access to information, and international
cooperation on these issues. The implementation of all six areas has
been identified as the pivotal factor for everyone to understand and
participate in solving the complex challenges presented by climate change.
ACE calls on governments to develop and implement educational and
public awareness programmes, train scientific, technical and managerial
personnel, foster access to information, and promote public
participation in addressing climate change and its effects. It also
urges countries to cooperate in this process, by exchanging good
practices and lessons learned, and strengthening national institutions.
This wide scope of activities is guided by specific objectives that,
together, are seen as crucial for effectively implementing climate
adaptation and mitigation actions, and for achieving the ultimate
objective of the UNFCCC.
Available information about the commitments
In 2014, The UN with Peru and France created the Global Climate Action Portal NAZCA for writing and checking all the climate commitments
Commentaries and analysis
Criticisms of the UNFCCC process
The
overall umbrella and processes of the UNFCCC and the adopted Kyoto
Protocol have been criticized by some as not having achieved their
stated goals of reducing the emission of carbon dioxide (the primary culprit blamed for rising global temperatures of the 21st century).
At a speech given at his alma mater, Todd Stern — the US Climate Change
envoy — has expressed the challenges with the UNFCCC process as
follows: "Climate change is not a conventional environmental issue ...
It implicates virtually every aspect of a state's economy, so it makes
countries nervous about growth and development. This is an economic
issue every bit as it is an environmental one." He went on to explain
that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a
multilateral body concerned with climate change and can be an
inefficient system for enacting international policy. Because the
framework system includes over 190 countries and because negotiations
are governed by consensus, small groups of countries can often block
progress.
The failure to achieve meaningful progress and reach effective
CO2-reducing policy treaties among the parties over the past eighteen
years has driven some countries like the United States to hold back from
ratifying the UNFCCC's most important agreement — the Kyoto
Protocol — in large part because the treaty did not cover developing
countries which now include the largest CO2 emitters. However, this
failed to take into account both the historical responsibility for
climate change since industrialisation, which is a contentious issue in
the talks, and also responsibility for emissions from consumption and
importation of goods.
It has also led Canada to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011 out
of a wish not to make its citizens pay penalties that would result in
wealth transfers out of Canada. Both the US and Canada are looking at internal Voluntary Emissions Reduction schemes to curb carbon dioxide emissions outside the Kyoto Protocol.
The perceived lack of progress has also led some countries to
seek and focus on alternative high-value activities like the creation of
the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants which seeks to regulate short-lived pollutants such as methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), which together are believed to account for up to 1/3 of current
global warming but whose regulation is not as fraught with wide
economic impacts and opposition.
In 2010, Japan stated that it will not sign up to a second Kyoto
term, because it would impose restrictions on it not faced by its main
economic competitors, China, India and Indonesia. A similar indication was given by the Prime Minister of New Zealand in November 2012. At the 2012 conference, last-minute objections at the conference by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were ignored by the governing officials, and they have indicated that they will likely withdraw or not ratify the treaty.
These defections place additional pressures on the UNFCCC process that
is seen by some as cumbersome and expensive: in the UK alone, the
climate change department has taken over 3,000 flights in two years at a
cost of over £1,300,000 (British pounds sterling).
Before the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, National Geographic Magazine
added to the criticism, writing: "Since 1992, when the world's nations
agreed at Rio de Janeiro to avoid 'dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system,' they've met 20 times without moving the needle
on carbon emissions. In that interval we've added almost as much carbon
to the atmosphere as we did in the previous century."
Benchmarking
Benchmarking is the setting of a policy target based on some frame of reference.
An example of benchmarking is the UNFCCC's original target of Annex I
Parties limiting their greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the
year 2000. Goldemberg et al. (1996)
commented on the economic implications of this target. Although the
target applies equally to all Annex I Parties, the economic costs of
meeting the target would likely vary between Parties. For example,
countries with initially high levels of energy efficiency
might find it more costly to meet the target than countries with lower
levels of energy efficiency. From this perspective, the UNFCCC target
could be viewed as inequitable, i.e., unfair.
Benchmarking has also been discussed in relation to the first-round emissions targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol.
International trade
Academics
and environmentalists criticise the article 3(5) of the convention,
which states that any climate measures that would restrict international trade should be avoided.
The 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in CancĂșn, Mexico, from 29 November to 10 December 2010. The conference is officially referred to as the 16th session of the Conference of the Parties(COP 16) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 6th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties (CMP 6) to the Kyoto Protocol.
In addition, the two permanent subsidiary bodies of the UNFCCC — the
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the
Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) — held their 33rd sessions. The
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
extended the mandates of the two temporary subsidiary bodies, the Ad
Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the
Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term
Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA), and they met as well.
Background
Following the non-binding Copenhagen Accord put forth in 2009, international expectations for the COP16 conference were reduced.
Four preparatory rounds of negotiations (i.e. sessions of the AWG-KP
and the AWG-LCA) were held during 2010. The first three of these were in
Bonn, Germany,
from 9 to 11 April, 1 to 11 June (in conjunction with the 32nd sessions
of SBSTA and SBI), and 2 to 6 August. The Bonn talks were reported as
ending in failure. The fourth round of talks in Tianjin, China, made minimal progress and was marked by a clash between the US and China. The Ambo declaration was adopted at the Tarawa Climate Change Conference on 10 November 2010 by Australia, Brazil, China, Cuba, Fiji, Japan, Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, New Zealand, Solomon Islands and Tonga. It calls for more and immediate action, and was slated to be presented at COP 16.
Expectations
Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon addresses the hall
In August 2010, Ban Ki-moon
stated that he doubted whether member states would reach a "globally
agreed, comprehensive deal," suggesting instead that incremental steps
might come.
After the Tianjin talks in October Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said, "This
week has got us closer to a structured set of decisions that can be
agreed in Cancun ... This is the greatest societal and economic
transformation that the world has ever seen."
Other commentators spoke of a positive spirit of negotiation and of paving the way for agreement in Cancun.
Outcome
The outcome of the summit was an agreement adopted by the states' parties that called for a large "Green Climate Fund", and a "Climate Technology Centre" and network. It looked forward to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol.
The agreement recognizes that climate change represents an urgent
and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet,
which needs to be urgently addressed by all parties. It affirms that
climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and that
all parties must share a vision for long-term cooperative action in
order to achieve the objective of the Convention, including the
achievement of a global goal. It recognizes that warming of the climate
system is scientifically verified and that most of the observed increase
in global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century are very
likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations, as assessed by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report.
The agreement further recognizes that deep cuts in global
greenhouse gas emissions are required, with a view to reducing global
greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average
temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and that parties
should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with
science and on the basis of equity; and recognizes the need to consider,
in the context of the first review, strengthening in relation to a
global average temperature rise of 1.5 °C. The agreement also notes that
addressing climate change requires a paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society.
The agreement calls on rich countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as pledged in the Copenhagen Accord, and for developing countries to plan to reduce their emissions.
A 40-nation "transition committee" was to meet by the end of
March 2011, but it was deferred until late April amid squabbles among
Latin American countries and the Asia bloc about who should be on the
committee. The committee is due to present a complete plan for the fund
by the next climate conference in South Africa starting in November, 2011.
Adaptation
The
conference established the Cancun Adaptation Framework and the
Adaptation Committee, and it invited Parties to strengthen and, where
necessary, establish regional adaptation centres and networks.
Mitigation
Developed countries should submit annual greenhouse gas inventories and inventory reports
and biennial reports on their progress.
It agrees that developing country parties will take nationally
appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable
development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and
capacity-building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative
to "business as usual" emissions in 2020. It decides to set up a registry to record Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
seeking international support and to facilitate matching of finance,
technology and capacity-building support to these actions. Once support
has been provided they are called internationally supported mitigation actions (ISMAs), that will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification.
Finance
It
takes note of the collective commitment by developed countries to
provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments
through international institutions, approaching US$30 billion for the
period 2010–-2012 and recognizes that developed country parties commit,
in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on
implementation, to a goal of mobilizing jointly US$100 billion per year
by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.
It decides to establish a Green Climate Fund, to be designated as an operating entity of the financial mechanism
of the Convention. Also decides that the Fund shall be governed by a
board of 24 members; the trustee shall administer the assets of the
Green Climate Fund only for the purpose of, and in accordance with, the
relevant decisions of the Green Climate Fund Board.
The conference establishes a Standing Committee under the
Conference of the Parties to assist the Conference of the Parties in
exercising its functions with respect to the financial mechanism
Technology
In technology development and transfer, decides to establish a Technology Mechanism, which will consist of a Technology Executive Committee and a Climate Technology Centre
and Network. The Climate Technology Centre and Network and the
Technology Executive Committee shall relate so as to promote coherence
and synergy. The Technology Executive Committee shall further implement
the framework of the Convention (technology transfer framework)
and Committee shall comprise 20 expert members. The Climate Technology
Centre shall facilitate a Network of national, regional, sectoral and
international technology networks, organizations and initiatives
Capacity-building
It reaffirms that capacity-building
is essential to enable developing country parties to participate fully
in addressing the climate change challenges, and to implement
effectively their commitments under the Convention.
Kyoto Protocol
The
Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments
for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol at its fifteenth session:
Recognizes that the contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC,
to achieving the lowest levels would require Annex I Parties as a group
to reduce emissions in a range of 25-40 per cent below 1990 levels by
2020 (close to the 51% reduction in a low-carbon society).
Urges Annex I Parties to raise the level of ambition of the emission reductions to be achieved.
In the second commitment period, the base year shall be 1990.
The
agreement includes a "Green Climate Fund," proposed to be worth $100
billion a year by 2020, to assist poorer countries in financing emission
reductions and adaptation.
There was no agreement on how to extend the Kyoto Protocol, or how the
$100 billion a year for the Green Climate Fund will be raised, or
whether developing countries should have binding emissions reductions or whether rich countries would have to reduce emissions first.
Reuters Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle reported that to most
delegates, though they approved it, the agreement "fell woefully short
of action needed."
The New York Times described the agreement as being both a
"major step forward" given that international negotiations had
stumbled in recent years, and as being "fairly modest" as it did not
require the changes that scientists say are needed to avoid dangerous climate change. John Vidal, writing in The Guardian,
criticised the Cancun agreements for not providing leadership, for not
specifying how the proposed climate fund will be financed, and for not
stating that countries had to "peak" their emissions within 10 years and
then rapidly reduce them for there to be any chance to avert warming.
Also criticised were the deferral of decisions on the legal form of and
level of emission reductions required.
Professor Kevin Anderson described the Cancun accord as "astrology" and
stated that the science was suggesting a 4 °C rise in global mean
temperature, possibly as early as the 2060s.
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