Search This Blog

Friday, December 27, 2013

The Universe as we Don’t See It


I want to take you on a journey. For me it started quite young, but when at age twelve or thirteen my parents gave me a six-inch Newtonian reflector, it began in earnest. I am told that my largesse was the result of my sister getting (for a while) a pony, and their was fear I would be envious, but the two events were never connected in my mind and I never remember a trace of envy or resentment toward my sister. I was just so darn happy to have the telescope. .

Even in the rather light-polluted suburbia USA we lived in the telescope revealed a marvel of heavenly capital the naked eye never suspected. We all know there are craters on the moon, but with but 96X magnification I could see them, bright and clear. And the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. The rings of Saturn. And stars beyond stars, nebulae, galaxies – by any professional standards it was just a child’s toy, but what it brought into my backyard most of the greatest philosophers of history could not have dreamt about.

It took me … out there. Away from this secluded and narrow viewpoint of tiny spot on planet Earth where I stood, toward places hundreds or thousands of years of light speed travel that would have been needed to actually be there in the flesh (not that I would have survived long, but I never thought about that). It was a Asperger’s child’s vision of paradise, to this day probably the best thing my parents ever did for me. I was not to become an actual astronomer, but this gift opened that door to me better than anything else.

I’d like to repeat a figure from chapter one:


Figure I. (repeated)

Getting away from our ordinary, Earth-bound existence and planting ourselves somewhere in space – here, a position millions of miles beyond the sun-Earth system – we see already how much our perspective on things have changes. For one thing, the cause of the seasons, which had baffled us before, becomes obvious. We also see Earth (and the sun) as spherical objects in space, instead of as flat, infinite surfaces which or may not have boundaries. If the picture were to be fully fleshed out, we would see other planets too (specifically, the inner world of Mercury and Venus, and the fourth planet Mars; whether Jupiter and/or Saturn would show from here is not as clear).

Whether you realize it or not, I have done something profound to your senses; more precisely, to your brain’s interpretation of reality. But all I have really done is change your point of view, as my telescope changed mine. I call it profound, however, because the brilliant insights of Albert Einstein, in the beginnings of the twentieth century, demonstrated that it must be so.

* * *

If you have ever taken high school physics, or a general college physics course, you may have discovered that it is, in a very real sense, boring. It’s boring because you’re not learning anything you hadn’t already intuitively learned by about age two or so. If you don’t believe that, then watch next time a magic show is performed before a group of toddlers. They are just as dumb-founded and thrilled seeing the laws of ordinary physics seemingly violated as you or I. And even a small baby can tell when something is amiss; if you convince it something is in a certain place and then reveal that it isn’t, their eyes will open wide with surprise, and they may even become distressed.

But that’s just common sense,” you might be tempted to protest. Yet what is common sense? If it were as easy and as obvious as it seems, artificial intelligence would be a snap to accomplish, and would have been years ago.

The fact is, our brains evolved to perceive and “understand” reality in ways necessary for our stone-age ancestors and further back, and thus it is unsurprising that we should possess, even at a very young age, the common-sense concepts we collectively call reality. Recall what I said about magicians and how they do what they do; they use those “wired-in”, common-sense, laws of physics and manipulate our senses and points of view to cause us to see impossible things. Like bending a spoon with your fingers, if I may cite a rather common trick by “psychics” – magicians who pawn themselves off as special people with special powers.

What you learn in basic physics course are the details, the precise definitions, and the math behind the ordinary. And, despite what I said, it isn’t boring at all; I strongly recommend taking such a course (my mother did, and got a B, which somehow didn’t convey to her that she could grasp scientific thinking), perhaps even before reading what’s coming up.

* * *

The lesson of the last section, I hope, is that although we possess common-sense intuition about “ordinary” reality – the reality all of us spend all our lives in, a reality within a narrow range of space and time – at the same time evolution could not have bestowed us no gifts about reality outside those strict ranges, because our ancestors never encountered them. And indeed, it hasn’t. But until you understand that, it is only natural that you should think the Laws of Physics, as we somewhat pompously and arrogantly call them, will apply everywhere, all the time, across all scales of time and place.

That’s why I started out talking about my childhood telescope, and showing Figure I again. Even this is not too far a deviation from our hum-drum down on this planet’s lives, but there are some noteworthy differences. The biggest one may be that the light from the sun or that reflected from Earth will take several minutes to reach our new vantagepoint. We certainly aren’t used to significant (or any) delays between the time something happens and when we observe it, for light travels – well, it travels faster than anything known in the universe, a full 186,282 miles per second. That being the case, when a bank of lights at a stadium are turned on, the stadium is full alit “at once” , though it actually takes around a fraction of a millisecond or one thousandth of a second fir this miracle to happen. Since our brains can’t measure time intervals that short (we’re a tad slow, to tell the truth), this is instantaneously as far as we are concerned. Indeed, by all common-sense measurements the speed of light is for all practical purposes infinite.

Yet it is in fact not infinite, as our hovering over Figure I. shows. That light – electromagnetic radiation I should call it, including radio, microwaves, infrared (heat) rays, ultraviolet (black) light, x-rays, and gamma rays – journeys at a specifically defined speed came out of work on electricity and magnetism in the 1800’s, already dents our common sense view of things. But what comes next tramples it into unrecognizable shards.

I have to backtrack some to explain why. I’ll ask you to close your eyes (but don’t stop reading!) and imagine the following: someone else and I are on a rail car, travelling at fifty mph down the track. We both have baseball mitts (not actually necessary), and one baseball, and we are playing a game of catch between us. Some kindly passenger (you, as it turns out) on the train is timing how fast we throw, and reports us both hurling the ball at 50 miles per hour, or 73 feet per second. You can easily calculate this because the rail car is 73 feet long and it takes exactly one second from throw to catch.

Open your eyes again. That was probably easy to picture before your mind’s eye, I’m certain; we do things like this all the time, if never exactly this.

Okay, close ‘em again, and this time picture yourself on a train platform at a station, watching the train whizz by at fifty mph (it’s an express, and doesn’t stop there). You can easily look through the car’s windows and watch the game of throw and catch.

Question: what do you see now?

You are probably already uncertain as to whether you will see the same thing, but if you haven’t quite figured out what you do see, I’ll hand you the answer and then explain it. Using the same clock, you now see the thrower at the rear of the car throwing, like a top flight major league pitcher, the ball at 73 + 73 = 146 feet in the one second that ticks off your clock, or one hundred mph; while the thrower at the front can accomplish a mere 73 – 73 = 0 feet in that second, or zero mph.

The explanation is that speeds add. The train is travelling fifty mph forward, and this speed must be added to the rear of car thrower speed and subtracted from the front of car’s thrower’s velocity. If all the window shades are drawn, however, the passengers have no way of knowing their speed with respect to the station, because we can’t sense constant speed, only acceleration (speeding up, slowing down, or changing direction). Everything here, keep in your mind, is at constant speeds and directions. And I’ll wager it doesn’t gall you too much. You’ve actually witnessed it first hand many times in your life; you know you can’t really say an object is travelling at such and such a speed without specifying the reference point that speed is being measured from. Ever sat in a motionless train and, while watching another train moving slowly by you, actually sense yourself moving in the opposite direction? This is why. Like magic. it confuses your brain again.

Let’s get back to light. Nineteenth century physicists showed that visible light was in fact an electromagnetic wave, or possibly some kind of particle like a baseball only infinitely tinier, and the speed of that wave was a well-measured 186,282 mps. The natural question now? With respect to what point of reference? The answer is either: either none, because all the laws of physics up to that point demonstrated that there are no privileged or special points of reference in the universe, that they are all equal; or, despite those laws (and, to their defense, a law of physics is so only because we humans to our meager abilities have been able to estimate it well enough to call it a law, so we can at least bend if not outright break it when needed) their was something called the universal aether, a fluid having no density, no color, no resistance to movement through it (viscosity), indeed no observable properties at all, which permeated all space and actually was stationary in some absolute sense.

A note of personal preference before I go on here. Lots of books on relativity have lots of pictures of trains and trolleys and clocks and other pertinent things – only natural, as this is what got Einstein thinking about the issues raised here – but I won’t, because if I haven’t presented my concepts in a simple, straightforward enough manner, then I’ve already failed in the main aim of this book. I assure you, it has nothing to do with my incompetence in drawing pictures (OK, well it does some).

I’ve given you the two possibilities and, if I have been successful, you are probably up a creek paddleless trying to choose. How can there be no point of reference for light’s speed; or, alternatively, there is a point, the aether, that has no physical properties that can be observed and measured? You should be reeling a bit by this point, because by the late 19’th century almost all scientists were reeling trying to answer this seemingly impossible conundrum. So you are in good company.

I’ve suggested that there are only two solutions to this problem, but, and in fair warning this is where things get strange (but still logical!), a third solution does present itself. Oh, how I wish I could say I thought of it myself. No, it took the genius of an Einstein to see what was so unobvious to the rest us. The third solution is that light is in fact it’s own reference point, and all other speeds must pay homage to it. It is light, electromagnetic radiation, to which we must bow to and follow it’s rules, however absurd they may seem to us.

Again, an aside before I move on. The speed of light is so enormous that, compared to it, the differences between the ordinary speeds we encounter (and the 50,000+ mph of space probes and objects, as fast as they seem to us, are still way below light’s 670,000,000 mph, by a factor of ten thousand and more) are so insignificant to render the light speed problem moot. This is why we never notice it in our lives, or ever imagine it in our minds. It is certainly not part of our intuitive understanding of physics for it never had to be in our evolutionary history.

* * *

I apologize here, for I must lay down some equations for your edification. They are not really complicated, not unless you’re going to go into full-fledged physics mode, which there is no need to do. The first equation involves a quantity that you’ve probably heard of, momentum. It is simply the mass of an object multiplied by its velocity (speed + direction, remember). Prior to Einstein, and as still presented in all general physics courses today it is:



momentum( or p) = mass(or m) × velocity(or v)

p = mv

Equation I.


This is the equation Newton derived for what, essentially, he called inertia, and so derived the now famous Law of Conservation of Linear Momentum (quite similar to the one for Angular Momentum we’ve already encountered). Newton derived it assuming that all velocities were relative to some point of reference, even light, although he had little idea what light was or how/how fast it travelled. Science wasn’t developed well enough in his day, through no fault of his.

In Einstein’s new formulation, the equation of momentum must be modified from p = mv to:

p = m0v

Equation II.

Where or gamma (mathematics is all symbolized, even X + Y = Z, so don’t let this throw you), stands for:


Equation III.
The naught (0) on m indicates rest mass, which we’ll come to in a tick, and c means the speed of light.

Again, don’t let any of this get too heavy on you; you should have had all the symbolisms in high school, or can reference them easily. Anyway, this factoring in of the square root (what ¯ means) of 1 – (v/c)2 to the momentum equation, which remember, applies to all objects, takes into account c (speed of light) being this supreme reference point in the universe we must all be subservient to. Note something critical here: if v << c, as is the case with all velocities we normally encounter, then (v/c)2 goes to essentially zero, and just as essentially goes to 1, meaning that gamma is just 1/1 or 1 and drops out of the equation, leaving us with our Newtonian original, except for that lingering naught on m which we’ve let to explain beyond calling it the rest mass. Is there such a thing as a different not at rest mass?

Yes there is, and a little examination of Equation III. should show why. Imagine we make v very close to c, or even make it equal to c. Then (v/c)2 becomes just 1, and as 1 - 1 = 0 the bottom half of becomes infinite, meaning that p becomes infinite too!

Even as v gets closer and closer to c, p grows rapidly. It is as though all the energy we are throwing into our object to make it go faster and faster end up only increasing its mass as the speed of light is approached. If we could get to c the mass would be infinite in fact.

The only possible physical interpretation of this is that energy and mass are somehow equivalent, and dumping more of the former onto an object means it also has more of the latter. The math for that is just hairy enough to excuse us from examining it but the bottom line is the equation we all know and love: E = m0c2. The naught after m is, as said, the object’s rest mass; multiplying it by the speed of light squared gives its equivalent in energy, and since c2 is a very large number you will see (as scientists in the 1930’s were beginning to see, the results being Hiroshima and Nagasaki), if you can make the conversation you will release a very large amount of energy indeed.

Other, equally strange phenomena crop up when we move close to the light speed. Because all observers must find the same value for the this speed, regardless of their reference points, time and space become, well, malleable; it can be different with different observers.

Let’s go back to our baseball throwers in the rail car. The big difference, instead of throwing baseballs back and forth and each other, each one now has a laser pointer. As soon as the light from one pointer reaches the corresponding “catcher”, he in turn flashes his collaborator with his own pointer.

This experiment, as described, may sound absurd. The laser light travels so fast that it takes only 7.422×10-8 seconds, or 74 billionths of a second, for the light to exit the pointer and reach the other player, still fifty feet away. Very well then; let’s makes this easier to visualize by making the rail car 186,282 miles long, so that it now takes our full second for the traverse time. Never mind that this makes the experiment physically impossible (the rail car would stretch around our world over seven times!). Experiments can, in many cases are, done in our minds; as long as we get the math right and imagine things correctly, this is a perfectly valid approach to the subject. (Such experiments are called gedanken, a German word meaning literally ”done in thought”).

Do you have the picture in your head, though admittedly it is a bit tougher this time? Good. Next: imagine yourself, as before, the measurer in the rail car, timing how long it takes the laser light to get from pointer to receiver, and back. Naturally you find this number to be 186,282 mps, just the speed of light. No surprises there.

Now place yourself on the station again. You time the laser pulses again, just as you timed the baseball throw before from the platform. Now, one, crucial, last part of the experiment to stitch into your mind’s eyes: the rail car is also travelling 186,282 mps pass the station, in the same way as it was travelling 50 mph before. So: what do you expect to see?

With the baseballs, we obtained the answer that the speeds were either 50 + 50 = 100 mph for the back of car thrower, or 50 – 50 = 0 mph for the front of car, for now our reference point is the platform at the train station. Speeds, velocities more precisely, are additive because they depend on the point of reference you are measuring them from.

Amazingly, the result is completely different for the laser pointers and the car travelling at the speed of light! Recall my statement that the speed of light is its own reference. This means that its speed is always the same, regardless of any other point of reference. The platform observer, pocket watch in hand, finds that the laser pointers still fire their light beams at each other at c, just as the car observer does. Indeed, every observer, wherever he is in space and time, obtains the same values. There is no adding of speeds, at least not the way it was with baseballs.

If you are trying to make sense of this, and failing, I can tell you why. You are making the common-sense assumption that space and time are the same for all viewers. But that is incorrect. It feels right only because all your experience comes from speeds much below c, and evolution by natural selection has been geared to that. But our, rather simple, gedanken experiment has shown that both time and space are malleable, and depend on the observer’s state of motion.

Space and time are not flat and absolute. Special relativity shows this beyond a doubt. But if they are not flat and absolute, then – what are they? It was to take Einstein ten more years to work that out, and so much of modern cosmology depends on what he discovered. It is time to turn to there, the next state: the general theory of relativity, published in 1916.

* * *

Einstein was a person gifted with deep imagination and insight into nature. He knew that if he tried to work out his ideas about light and space and time not only with static motion but with accelerated motion as well, he would probably never have succeeded at either. So he started with static, meaning straight line, constant speed, motion, and in 1905 arrived at his special theory. It’s special because it specifically excludes all motions which involve changes in speed or direction (collectively known as accelerations), and concentrates purely on static motion. It was a maneuver which rewarded him with pure gold. It showed that mass and energy were equivalent, that the speed of light was the ultimate speed in the universe, and perhaps most importantly, that time and space were not flat, abstract constructs, the same for everyone everywhere, but ebbed and flowed depending on different circumstances. An enormous triumph, which earned him little notice at the time (he was still working at the same Swiss patent office well after publication), and which decidedly did not impress those who bequeathed Nobel Awards (though he did earn one some years later for a different line of work, which we’ll discuss in the next chapter).

Getting back to the theme of this section, special relativity was just that; a special case of relativity at work. Einstein’s main goal was a general theory of relativity, one which included accelerated motion as well as static. It was to take him another ten years to grind out the final, so-called field equations for relativity, equations I will not present here, fully confessing I don’t know enough math to do so.

We don’t need to understand that math (few do) to get a decent sense of what general relativity is about. One of the things Einstein noticed when dealing with accelerated motion was the results were virtually indistinguishable from being in a gravitational field. Here on Earth, as we would on all mass bodies in the universe, we feel ourselves being pulled downward by some unknown, almost magical force, which we call gravity. And indeed, if the ground beneath our feet were to give way, we would fall, ever faster and faster, into the resulting abyss, until we were smashed to our deaths by whatever we finally landed on (if the opening goes deep enough, however, we will be incinerated by the heat of Earth’s depths and crushed by the overwhelming pressures first – this all assumes the fall is far enough, of course).

An aside to describe accelerated motion. Our falling would occur under a force of one g (the gravitational force at Earth’s surface), meaning that we would plunge ever faster downward, at a rate of 32 feet per second per second, or 32fps2. All this means is that, after the first second, we are travelling at 32 fps, after the second second 64 fps, after the third 96fps, and so on. (All this ignores air friction, which counteracts the acceleration and limits us to 200-300 fps final speed, depending on our orientation.) Acceleration means a change in velocity, faster or slower (or in a different direction) over time.

All sorts of phenomena call cause accelerated motion. Take, as I believe Einstein did, an elevator. If you were sealed inside a windowless elevator somewhere out in deep interstellar space, you would be weightless and float freely all about the car. Now imagine that some unknown being of prodigious powers attaches a rope to the top of the elevator car, and starts pulling it upward with a force of one g (32fps2, remember). I think you intuitively sense that you would be slammed onto the floor of the car, and you would be right – though be careful about intuitions! I ask you a question: now that you are standing on a floor with a 32fps2 acceleration force trying to pull you downward, what is the difference between this situation and being in an elevator on Earth, at a stopped floor level? Remember there are no windows, nothing to tell you what is going on outside the elevator except this force pulling you down.

If I tell you basically nothing, you are probably not surprised. After all, we have all been in elevators, and felt the lurch in our stomachs, and the temporary lightness or heaviness in our bodies as we moved up or down in the car (try this at the Empire State Building or another monster skyscraper with express elevators if you really want to feel this effect). The sensation of falling if an elevator plunges down rapidly can be quite unnerving, rather like being on a roller coaster. I still have dreams about it, once in a while.

So our super being accelerating us at 32fps2 “upwards” (there is no such thing as direction in deep space, remember) feels exactly the same as being on an elevator on Earth, stopped at a specific floor. The being could even lurch us “upward” at more or less than one g if it really wanted to mimic the effects of the ground-based car. The point being, you simply could not tell the difference.

Here’s where an Einstein mind works on a different plane than our own. He made the deduction that, the scenario described above being true, there was no difference, according to the laws of physics, between them. They are in essence one and the same phenomena. Like me, I suspect you’ll have to put this book down at this point and chew on this idea. If there is no difference in the perception of two or more experiences, than physics tells us they are intimately linked by some thread; essentially, they are the same thing. This most certainly does violate our intuitions, which accounts for the warning I gave before.

* * *

But what is the thread connecting the two? Einstein finally realized that space and time, and their malleability, had to be brought into the situation to make that thread. But another, hopefully short, aside on another needed prerequisite is needed here to show how. You have probably heard of the concept called entropy, though you might (and should be) puzzled as to its exact meaning. We won’t get into that here, except to say that one meaning is that physical systems are inexorably (actually, probabilistically) drawn to their lowest energy states. An example is the falling we’ve been talking about; think about the energy, derived from its load of jet fuel, it takes to keep an airliner miles above the ground, or the far greater amount of rocket fuel it takes to put an astronaut on the moon or a robot about the planet Saturn. Falling things lose energy, which, according to the laws of entropy, is exactly what they should and must do, unless something stops them, like the floor of an elevator car.

The elevator, whether on Earth or in deep space, is providing energy to keep its occupants out of a state of free fall, i.e., what they’d be doing without the forces acting on them, floating about in a zero gravity (g) field. In both cases we are dealing with acceleration, even for an elevator stationary on Earth’s surface. What could account for such a curious conundrum?

Space and time. Spacetime. Special relativity had indicated that the two were indivisibly connected, and the fertile mind of the Swiss patent clerk finally become modest physics professor worked instinctively along these lines. If spacetime were a flexible, or curvable, concept that changed as an observer’s reference point changed, then maybe it was more that that: if was a real thing, and not only real but highly variable depending on perhaps many conditions. One of those conditions, he realized, was the presence of mass. He realized that mass objects somehow distorted spacetime, in a way that caused other objects to be attracted toward them. Using this insight, he finally solved the problem of the cause of gravity, which Newton knew better than to destroy his reputation on solving two hundred years earlier.

To explain how spacetime operates under general relativity I could reproduce a fairly standard picture, chances are you’ve seen, which appears to illustrate it:

Figure IV.

The grid represents the “curvature” of spacetime about the massive body of the planet Earth. Although it gives a good feeling for what is going on – you can easily picture objects approaching Earth being drawn in by the curvature of spacetime (the white grid), but the picture works only because Earth is at the bottom of a deep well and we intuitively know that objects near a well will be drawn into it. What I am objecting to in this picture as that it assumes what it is supposed to be explaining. It’s not a bad start but it must not be an end to the explanation. The reader wants to know what is really happening.

If instead of falling downwards the gridlines (representing spacetime, remember) get closer together as they approach Earth, then I believe we have a better picture of why objects fall toward other objects. Objects cause spacetime to compress, rather than to indent; a very small compression for objects the size of Earth, larger for the size of the sun, and quite large for nasty things like neutron stars and black holes, which compress them into singularities, a place which we won’t cover here.

Recall entropy. Objects “prefer” to be at the most compressed regions of spacetime because they can lose energy that way and obtain entropy by this particular meaning. That’s why they’re attracted toward each other, and will either fall into each other or orbit each other, the latter until loss of energy results in an eventual (trillions of years and more for the Earth-sun system, so don’t worry) collision.

If spacetime can curve in one way, it can – at least in theory – curve many ways – and many of the solutions to Einstein’s field equations describe the entire universe as being “closed” (spherically even) or “open”, or “saddle-backed” or plain old flat. New solutions crop up once every few years or decades, describing how the universe must be or how it will evolve in time, or what phenomena (like black holes) it might reveal. There is also a “standard” solution, which itself gets itself upgraded once in a while, as the result of new astronomical observations (e.g., that the universe is not only expanding but expanding more and more so, due to something called “dark energy”) and other considerations. .

* * *

I am going to stop here, because if you have been following me reasonably well, then I’ve succeeded in what I set out to do in this chapter. I wanted to describe for you a field of physics which, although it violates all our common-sense notions about how things behave and why, was within your grasp to at least get a good feel for. Don’t worry about all the sundry details I’ve left out (though if this has left you hungering for a deeper understanding of relativity, all power to you!); I just wanted to give you a taste for how strange and wonderful reality can be when we drag ourselves away from our evolutionary-derived intuitions. Again, if I’ve succeeded, than we are ready to talk about what I’ve been setting forth to cover, some chemistry and biology that should be within your understanding as well. This is where we start on a very new road from the physics of Einstein, to the physics (and chemistry) of the quantum, a field many great minds have contributed to and to which, I think, no one can be designated the creator of. On to quantum cats.

How We Know What We Know


When I was in my early twenties I was in love. It was unrequited, but we still got along well and to this day I still say that she is one of the finest persons I have ever met. I won’t say it wasn’t painful – as an aspie I probably just didn’t have the knowledge and maturity to win her heart (or maybe it just wasn’t “meant to be”, whatever that means) – but I have always been glad that I knew her. She was a terrific friend and companion.

One day, we were discussing ancient pyramids, of both the old and new worlds. You might have noticed that among the very large structures built by these ancient cultures (Maya, Mesopotamia, and Egypt mainly) were a variety of pyramids, from step to flat-faced, with the smaller step ones coming first because they are easier to build, and often evolving, as in Egypt about 2500 BC, toward the huge, flat-faced structures (e.g., Giza). That this came about by improvements in the needed engineering skills is fairly certain (I doubt they needed ancient astronauts, though of course it is possible), and probably also by larger populations, a decreasing portion of which didn’t have to grow food and so were available as necessary labor. Better political and cultural organization no doubt played a role too.

In chatting on the subject, she made a claim which I immediately found hard to swallow. I can accept the Egyptians and Mesopotamians influencing each other; the areas are nearby in the Middle East, while excursions (and even conquests) between the two are common in history. It’s quite reasonable to imagine (though I am not certain) the two cultures shared and contributed to each others’ pyramid construction techniques and strategies. I am ignorant of whether this really happened, but it is plausible and easy to believe.

But Egypt/Mesopotamia influencing the Maya? She was quite sure of this; but it was only because she couldn’t imagine two separate cultures building such common structures, especially such massive ones, without their being a physical connection. To be fair, the idea sounds superficially reasonable and even compelling, this idea of Egyptian boats making the trans-Atlantic voyage to the Yucatan peninsula and instructing the Mayans on the time-honored art of pyramid building.

What a minute, though. Ancient Egyptian boats making trans-Atlantic voyages? In fact, this is a real problem. As the Europeans were to find out in the 15’th and 16’th centuries AD (and the Chinese about the same time), there are huge differences between large ocean-traversing vehicles and those who stick to rivers, bays, and small seas and lakes. You need deep, complex keels in the ocean variety to handle the higher and more violent waters and storms, deep harbor ports to handle such vehicles, which are larger, sturdier boats (made with hard wood at least, which Egypt had little of) with more men and much more supplies (to handle journeys of months instead of days or weeks at most), and so on. Now, I have never heard of any discoveries of these things being made in Egypt through the many centuries she was a great power in the western world; and we certainly would have found them if they’d existed, for there is no lack of archeological exploration there. What we do know is that Egyptian boats were mostly made from papyrus and other reeds, hardly up to ocean travelling needs. Indeed, these ancient, (mostly Mediterranean and Black) sea travelling boats stuck close to shorelines for safety, something you couldn’t do in a large ocean.

This would seem to make it virtually impossible for any ancient Egyptians/Mesopotamians to reach the Yucatan Peninsula in Central America. Even if one did, by accident say (this is possible, with incredible luck), why would they carry pyramid builders and technology with them? They would have had no ideas what to expect, besides, perhaps, an end of the world to fall off (the ancient Egyptians didn’t know Earth was spherical, a fact that was discovered by the Greeks many centuries later).

I think all this alone destroys this hypothesis, though it is not always easy to make such statements with certainty. For there is still the fact of similar pyramids in old and new world cultures, something that still needs explaining. To be complete, the one fact that fits poorest for my friend’s idea (perhaps even worse than the ship dilemma) is that the new world pyramids were built many centuries and even millennia after the old world ones. If an Egyptian boat were to somehow cross the Atlantic at its pyramid building times it would not have encountered a culture that could imitate much of the Egyptian/Mesopotamian technology/political/cultural levels even to save its life. Yet by the time the Mayans (and some other Central American cultures) were ready for it, the old world was far beyond pyramids, having acquired the ability to build more complex and useful structures (oh, say, like the Valley of the Kings, the Greek Parthenon and Roman aqueducts, maybe even medieval castles).

* * *

Think about it. You are a well organized, powerful, and highly command-centered Neolithic stone-age culture, with a good supply of available manual labor (including, no doubt and, alas, slaves) and rock. Time, as in decades, you have in abundance too, or so you hope. As the leader of this culture you want to construct huge monuments to your greatness, both to intimidate the masses and your neighbors, and to make you remembered for “all of time.” What would you construct?

Your engineering skills are still pretty primitive for such tasks, so you need the easiest to build, strongest, and most sturdiest structure you can manage. Is it hard to see that this would be a pyramid, starting off with small, steps ones and building them larger, with smaller steps, as your engineering and architectural skills were acquired over decades and centuries? A pyramid is in fact very strong, with a stable, a broad, flat bottom combined with tapering construction above it. I’m sure it requires the least engineering and architectural mastery, as you are just basically carving out (shaped) stones from a quarry, dragging them to the pyramid, and using scaffolding or levering to get them on top of the existing stones. You may or may not have wheels (as in logs?) and animal power to help you, but that just increases the time it takes. Enough people, time, and sophisticated enough stone carving tools, and it can be done in a lifetime or less, maybe a decade or less.

Apparently, my friend didn’t think of all these objections to her “hypothesis” (better just called a belief). She’d stumbled across one fact, the similarities between old and new world pyramids, and that was good enough for her; there was little or no further researching, or thinking, or skepticism. I have an unpleasant feeling that that is the way many if not most people think, especially B people (As can’t do this). They find one or two facts (or factoids even) which suggest an exciting idea, or one that fits a pre-existing idea, and if they look or think further it is only to confirm the idea, which becomes a simple article of faith from thereon.

I have used the word hypothesis occasionally here, as though it is interchangeable with belief or idea, or even speculation, but to the scientific mind the words hardly approach each other in their meanings. I haven’t used the word theory yet, which I will now, for again in many minds sets up an equivalency:

Belief/Idea/Speculation = Hypothesis = Theory = Truth

It’s clear to me that my friend, though quite intelligent, thought largely along these lines, while it’s a pretty standard philosophical approach for most of Earth’s population. Unfortunately, it is wrong, dead wrong, a mistake no scientists worth rock salt would ever make. I also think it is why B-type people are much more prevalent than they ought to be. I also connect it with the authoritarian thinking, mentioned in the last chapter, which can bury human curiosity under a think, wet, cold, woolen blanket; for it is seriously, and even dangerously, fallacy supporting. My friend was intelligent, but she didn’t know how to think or question things. Shame, though I still respect her.

* * *

Belief/Idea/Speculation (BIS) = Hypothesis = Theory = Truth.

Is this truly the way type Bs (not all, to be fair) think? Type As, definitely not: they could not perform their jobs, or carry on with their enthusiams, if they did. But is it as common as I have implied? And if it is, what is really wrong with it? We are pretty much all after the truth, after all, and this could be a formula for it, one I simply don’t appreciate for prejudices of my own.

Actually I don’t think it is all that too common as pessimism would suggest, at least not in so pure a form. But people do routinely make confusions here. This is important: a big part of science is giving words and concepts precise, accurate meanings, ones that can then be used in almost mathematical formulations. And so, if we are to use the words/concepts here in like fashion, we must do the same. Then, perhaps, we can answer the question I raised at the beginning of the section.

BIS’s are what most of our minds are filled with most of the time, even, I strongly expect, most scientists. E.g., we Believe in an Idea called God, or maybe various gods; or if we don’t, we still Speculate about whether our sentience is a soul, and whether it survives death, by becoming, say, part of some BIS called “cosmic consciousness”. Or, to be less esoteric, we have plenty of BIS’s about the people in our lives, about politics, economics, religion, and the many, many other things we “think about without thinking about.”

I am not criticizing here. The human mind probably has to work this way, if for no other reason that if we were as meticulous about science as we are about everything else, it would be difficult to get anything done! Remember, too, our brains have been largely wired by genes we’ve inherit from our stone age, uncivilized ancestors. Making “snap decisions” or acting on gut feeling, without too much asking and exploring, was, for most of our evolution, the better way to save your life and pass on your genes. But the result is, we’re stuck with them, at least for the time being.

I think my friend’s idea about Egypt helping with new world pyramid building is a textbook example of a BIS. It is so easy to bring this Idea down, by being skeptical and thinking about it, that she must have never done those things. No doubt she just liked the idea so much, and, having one fact to support it, simply assumed that meant it was true. Man BIS’s are based on the one fact fallacy.

* * *

Let’s focus our microscopes on the other three words of the equation: Hypothesis, Theory, and Fact.

First thing that needs to be said is that, despite all the = signs, from a scientific view they are not equals at all, but distinctly different entities. At the same time I’ll add up front that in fact they are also not really so distinctly different, but overlap to considerable degrees.

Let’s start with the word hypothesis, and as usual, an example of it. I think my counter-arguments to my friend’s idea constitute a valid hypothesis. It is not theory, and certainly not fact, but simple hypothesis. First of all, after all I not only attacked the idea (with gusto, of course; all ideas should be attacked with gusto), but presented counter-ideas of my own; for example why pyramid building is natural for a well organized, stone age culture at an early age, and why.

But I did not present any supporting evidence for that, other than the “it should be obvious and here’s why” implication. Given that, you might dispute my claim to hypothesis status! But I did give, I believe, some pretty sound logic for it; more important than that, logic that can be explored and tested to see whether it holds up to test.

“Whether it holds up to test” is a great deal of what true hypotheses, the ones in type A minds, concern themselves with. For an hypothesis is a concept that proposes something, or explains some phenomenon, and which fits all known facts, contradicts none, and can be further tested (that is, can it make predictions). I believe my friend’s pseudo-hypothesis has actually failed this concept (in her defense, though, she isn’t here to counter her critic, which really isn’t fair), while mine passes muster – probably; I am not an expert in the subjects and there could be facts difficult to fit into it – if only by the skin of its teeth. And, to reemphasize, it is nowhere near to being a theory, or a fact itself.

I am taking a conservative approach here, as should all scientists. At heart, we’re curmudgeons who hale from Missouri and often don’t believe things even when we see them with our own eyes (not a good reason to believe just about anything, by the way). Propose something to a scientist and the best you’re likely to get is, “That’s interesting” along with appropriate body language, or something like that. Believe it or not, it’s a compliment.

Such are the basics behind hypotheses. So, next time some fascinating sounding thought comes to you, wait until you’ve checked it against all the facts and logic you can find, and think of some ways it could be further tested, before you announce it to the world. Not that the thought is automatically useless if you don’t; but then, you’ve just been lucky. My friend was not lucky.

* * *

Theory and fact are more difficult to pin down, because they really have multiple, sometimes interlocking, meanings. In common parlance, and often in science too, theory just means an explanation for something, even if not a necessarily proven true one (though it must have good evidence for it); in the former, common parlance, case, but decidedly not for scientists, it is not even a necessarily clear, well-supported explanation. So if, for example, I propose an explanation for how stars form (already been done!), and it passes the hypothesis examinations, people will call it a theory. But they might not call it a fact because it still hasn’t passed enough testing.

Charles Darwin’s idea of evolution by natural selection was initially an idea, then a hypothesis, and is now, as it is usually called, a theory. It’s an explanation, true; but it is also, because it has passed so many tests and has so much evidence on its side, a fully-fledged fact as well. Einstein’s theories of special and general relativity also get similar, justified, status. As does the atomic theory of matter. They’re explanations and they are facts. Nobody seriously disputes this.

At the same time, as a theory is in another sense also just an hypothesis that has stood up to further testing and observation, such that it can be a claim to fact that may or may not (though most facts do) explain other facts, or support other theories. I’ll put Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift in this arena. The theory says that the different continents move around on the ocean beds, occasionally joining each other and then breaking up, as shown below:

Figure III.
In fact, for much of its existence this theory wasn’t even taken seriously even as an hypothesis by most of the scientific community. This was partly Wegener’s fault, for he proposed causes for continental drift that were clearly absurd – I emphasize however that this really should not be regarded as evidence against an hypothesis – and mostly (I believe) that community’s fault for not supporting an out of league player (Wegener was a meteorologist by training, not a geologist).

Currently, the theory now is not only clearly true, but is a theory in both senses: continental drift is a fact (with clear, proven causes), and it is a theory that explains many other phenomena about Earth, ones that had puzzled scientists for a long time. We now call it rightfully the theory of plate tectonics, after the true causes of drift.

* * *

Fact. Now, don’t go thinking that fact means “naked observation by the senses” or anything like that. I already alluded to this, but this is a good time to go further. If observation really is equal to fact, then the (fact? – maybe you’re lying, or psychotic) that you just saw someone walk through a wall of solid concrete without smashing it apart in someway a fact, or merely an observation – that is to say, a visual illusion? I’m sure you’ll conclude the latter, even if you have no idea how the illusion was pulled off or how convincing it is.

This may put us in a pickle. Facts aren’t observations, but don’t they have to be, somehow, supported by observations? But how do we know whether we’re being fooled or not by these other observations?

One of the problems of science is that it really can’t make indisputable proclamations about the universe. This makes science vulnerable to “straw men” arguments, easy to demolish, but unfortunately inevitable if we want to keep it pure. Yet we can still make real progress here. For example, sticking with our concrete-traversing man scenario, what would happen if we were to view it from all viewpoints, even those slowed or speeded up in time? Why, somewhere the illusion would certainly be revealed, for a lot of magic is based on the magician having his/her audience in a chosen viewpoint. The brain insists on interpreting sensory input in certain ways, another evolutionary trap which actually is reasonable but sometimes leads us to error.

This suggests a good way of determining fact (if not with infinite certainty). We make our observations from as many viewpoints as we can, and compare the results. If they agree, especially repeatedly, we accept them as true; otherwise, they are spurious observations, fascinating possibly but of little scientific value. Of course, this is not always easy to do! Do two astronomers, gazing at the same phenomenon a billion light-years in space, really constitute two viewpoints? In some ways yes, in others certainly not. But it is the best we can do in this case.

* * *

One conclusion of this chapter is that the dividing line between hypothesis, theory, and fact is not always clear, in fact it can be quite broad and grey, the subject of innumerable, passionate, debates. But, I maintain, the line between the first part of the equation, the BIS, and the others is night and day. And, I emphasize further, this is the line that is so precise in type A’s minds, but can get so muddled in type B’s. I think this is the main cause of why B’s (say they) don’t get science and math, beyond any natural talents in either areas.

So remember: you can have all the ideas you want, but if you want them widely accepted as true, you must eschew the BIS approach and embrace the scientific one. And good luck to you, for it can be and often is a hard trek.

The Universe as Quantum Computer

The universe as quantum computer
Authors: Seth Lloyd
Abstract: This article reviews the history of digital computation, and investigates just how far the concept of computation can be taken. In particular, I address the question of whether the universe itself is in fact a giant computer, and if so, just what kind of computer it is. I will show that the universe can be regarded as a giant quantum computer. The quantum computational model of the universe explains a variety of observed phenomena not encompassed by the ordinary laws of physics. In particular, the model shows that the the quantum computational universe automatically gives rise to a mix of randomness and order, and to both simple and complex systems.

Comments: 16 pages, LaTex
Subjects: Quantum Physics (quant-ph); Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph)
Journal reference: Chapter for A Computable Universe: Understanding and exploring Nature as computation, H. Zenil ed., World Scientific, Singapore, 2012
Cite as: arXiv:1312.4455 [quant-ph]
 (or arXiv:1312.4455v1 [quant-ph] for this version)

Submission history

From: Seth Lloyd [view email]
[v1] Mon, 16 Dec 2013 18:42:34 GMT (15kb)

Retrieving an asteroid (Phys.Org)

Retrieving an asteroid
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-12-asteroid.html#jCp

Retrieving an asteroid

Retrieving an Asteroid       
An image of the asteroid Tempel 1 taken during the Deep Impact visit. Tempel 1 is about five kilometers across. CfA astronomers have estimated the size of the smallest measured near Earth asteroid, 2009 BD, as only about three meters across, …more

(Phys.org) —Asteroids (or comets) whose orbits bring them close to the earth's orbit are called near Earth objects. Some of them are old, dating from the origins of the solar system about four and one-half billion years ago, and expected to be rich in primitive materials. They are of great interest to scientists studying the young solar system. Others, of lower scientific priority, are thought to contain minerals of potential economic value.

NASA has announced its interest in sending a manned mission to a near Earth object. The NASA Asteroid Robotic Retrieval Mission concept involves the capture of an asteroid, and dragging it onto a new trajectory that traps it in the Earth–Moon system where it will be further investigated by astronauts. The current mission design requires the target asteroid to have a diameter of seven to ten meters. The object NEO 2009BD is a prime candidate for this retrieval mission. It was discovered on January 16, 2009, at a distance from the Earth of only 0.008 AU (one AU is the average distance of the Earth from the Sun). Its orbit is very Earth–like, with a period of 400 days, and it will end up close to the Earth–Moon system again in late 2022 when the proposed capture would take place. It seems to be a perfect candidate, with a time frame that allows for proper mission planning.
The problem is that the size of the NEO 2009BD is uncertain, and thus its density and composition are also uncertain, but first estimates are that it likely falls in the diameter range specified by the mission. The uncertainty arises because it was detected at optical wavelengths; they measure reflected light, which is a combination of both an object's size and reflectivity (albedo). For NASA mission planning to succeed, a more direct size measurement of 2009 BD is needed—and soon, before its increasing distance from the Earth makes such an observation a practical impossibility.


CfA astronomers Joe Hora, Howard Smith and Giovanni Fazio have been regularly using the IRAC camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope to measure the infrared emission of near Earth objects, and (with some modeling) deriving both the sizes and densities of these objects. They received special observatory time to study NEO 2009BD, and in an upcoming issue of the Astrophysical Journal they and their colleagues report on their conclusions. They did not detect the NEO 2009BD to a very low light level, implying that it is very small, probably only about 2.9 meters in diameter, and modeling suggests it has a rubble-pile composition. This is the smallest object ever reported on by Spitzer; whether it is still suitable for a NASA mission is now something that the NASA Retrieval Mission team must determine.
Explore further: Asteroid hunter spacecraft returns first images after reactivation

More information: "Constraining the Physical Properties of The Near–Earth Object 2009 BD," M. Mommert,J. L. Hora,D. E. Trilling,S. R. Chesley and D. Farnocchia,D. Vokrouhlick´y, M. Mueller,A. W. Harris, H. A. Smith and G. G. Fazio, ApJ, 2013, in press.

A Revised View of Upright Walking in genus Homo and its Predecessors

 This chart, one version of the most famous charts in science and elsewhere, is not scientifically very accurate but roughly captures the widely perceived course of human evolutions.

It's scientific inaccuracy is in its implicit assumption that humans started as creatures very similar to modern chimpanzees, and that is a fundamental misunderstanding of how evolution works.  In fact, genetic analysis show that human and chimps (+bonobos) split from a MRCA most recent common ancestor) between six and seven million years ago, and that creature, chimp and human great great great ... ancestor possibly no more resembled modern chimps than it did modern humans (the most successful ape species on the planet today.

Actually, fully upright walking and possible hairlessness existed in our ancestors at least four million years ago, and maybe even more than five million.  If our facts are right, we are getting very close to the human/chimp ancestor split; close enough, I am suggesting, that that ancestor itself stood upright and might have been hairless.  Indeed, with the exception of intelligence and brain size, it might have been much closer, in physical form and some behaviors, to H sapiens than to P paniscus.  Possibly it even had a larger brain and intelligence that modern chimpanzee.

This at first sounds absurd, I know.  But that's due to the "evolution is progressive" bias we all tend to carry with us.  Yet bias is all it is; nature does not have to function that way, or any other way we may preconceive.  The "chimp line" from this H/P ancestor might have migrated into the jungle, where natural selection favored smaller, hairy bodies, with smaller brains, and limited upright motion (chimps normally "knuckle walk"), a locomotive means that help them on the ground and in the trees, where modern chimps live.

Based on human fossils, the human ancestor was probably a small animal, on the order of a modern chimp or less.  For whatever reason, it migrated into the open savannah that was already developing in eastern Africa five-ten million years ago.  There, its upright gait and possible hairlessness would have conveyed distinct advantages -- in walking, migrating, carrying food, weapons, and children, advantages that we enhanced in time by natural selection until we reach the human beings of today, the most successful apes in the entire history of the family.

Of course, if all this is true, we then ask ourselves where and when and how upright gait developed in the first place.  Here, unfortunately, our fossils so far (and any DNA they contain) are frustratingly sparse.  Modern consensus holds that apes first appeared in Asia, 20-30 million years ago.  There then, is the place to hunt for solid facts.

Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years as Shown by the IPCC






Global Tempratures and Solar Activity.  As for solar activity/climate warming, the chart above shows the remarkable correlation over many centuries (sorry it is a bit blurred).  The repeated rises and falls demonstrate that this is not mere correlation but that there is a real cause and effect going on.  Deviations from the pattern only appear ~1950 and after.  This could be an anthropogenic effect, as the IPCC would claim.



The top two charts show the IPCC's vision of past (~1000 years) global temperatures.  While largely based on testimonial, historical, and archeological evidence (e.g., the Viking settlement ~1000AD on west Greenland during the Medieval warm period, and its collapse !1400AD when temperatures dropped and Greenland became to cold and ice covered -- see Jared Diamond) there is little reason to doubt the left side record.  On the right we see Mann et al "Hockey Stick" chart which thoroughly eliminates the past aberrations of the left chart, based on selected temperature "proxies" (e.g., tree rings, ice cores, etc.).

As for solar activity/climate warming, the chart above shows the remarkable correlation over many centuries (sorry it is a bit blurred).  The repeated rises and falls demonstrate that this is not mere correlation but that there is a real cause and effect going on.

Astonishingly, Mann's revolutionary chart was accepted quite quickly, with little argument, by the IPCC in 2001.  Current models still follow Mann's original data, but are more variable, somewhat approaching the pre 2000 model.  A typical example is shown below, with the red line showing the pre-2000 model, and the black and blue lines representing amended Mann models.  Again, these models only seem accurate to around 1950 or so.

The rise and fall of the Hockey Stick

The rise of the so called Hockey Stick graph is pivotal to the story of the rise of the alarm about man made global warming.

Reprinted from A Sceptical Mind

The fall of the Hockey Stick graph is pivotal to the rise of scepticism about man made global warming.

Here is the story of the rise and fall of the Hockey Stick.

The Background
A central and critical plank of the alarmist global warming case is that the current phase of warming that started in the late 19th century is unprecedented.

Why is this claim so important?

Because if a similar or greater warming phase has occurred in the very recent past, before human CO2 emissions had caused CO2 levels to rise, then clearly any such recent warming must have been natural and was not caused by CO2. And if any recent similar warming phase was natural then clearly the current phase of warming could also be a natural phenomena.

If the current phase of warming could be natural then those arguing that it was primarily caused  by human CO2 emissions would have to prove their hypothesis. And this is something they cannot do.
The only “proof” that CO2 is currently forcing up global temperatures is the claim that the current warming is somehow unusual, unique and unnatural. That’s the total argument for CO2 forcing. Something unprecedented is happening to the climate and CO2 is the only candidate for what is causing this unique phenomena.

Its certainly true that the well understood physics of CO2 in the atmosphere demonstrates (see “CO2 the basic facts“)that CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas and will have a warming impact. No one disputes that. The issue is what is the scale of impact that this CO2 warming is having on the overall climate system. Is the effect of the CO2 so big that it can drive the temperature of the whole planet up in a way that is big enough to actually alter the climate?

This is a much harder question to answer because no one has a model of the total climate system that actually works and which verifiably produces even remotely accurate forecasts about climate trends.
So without a working model of the total climate system the only way to “prove” that CO2 is driving climate change is to prove that something truly unique is happening to the climate, that there is unprecedented warming occurring, and and then propose man made CO2 change as the only candidate as the cause of this ‘unprecedented’ warming.

The “problem” of the Medieval Warm Period

Until the 1990s there were many, many references in scientific and historical literature to a period labelled the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) lasting from about AD 800–1300. It was followed by a much cooler period termed the Little Ice Age. Based on both temperature reconstructions using proxy measures and voluminous historical references it was accepted that the Medieval Warm Period had been a period when global temperatures were a bit hotter than today’s temperatures. Until about the mid-1990s the Medieval Warm Period was for climate researchers an undisputed fact. The existence of the Medieval Warm Period was accepted without question and noted in the first progress report of the IPCC from 1990. On page 202 of that 1990 IPCC report there was the graphic 7c (see below), in which the Medieval Warm Period was portrayed as clearly warmer than the present.

By the time of the second IPCC report in 1995 where for the first time CO2 forcing began to be proposed more prominently as a cause of serious alarm, the Medieval Warm Period was sidelined in the text and narrative. An important way that this was done in the report was to alter the diagram of recent climate history by simply shortening the time period it covered so that it now started after the Medieval Warm Period. All that was shown was the long slow recovery from the Little Ice Age to today’s temperatures, i.e. a long period of increasing temperatures. But clearly this was only a short term solution. The way that the Medieval Warm Period dominated the recent climate graph challenged the basic argument for CO2 forcing which was that the late 20th century climate was some how unique. As Jay Overpeck, an IPCC participant said in his email to Professor Deming, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”.

In order to prove CO2 forcing the Medieval Warm Period had to be eliminated.

The Rise of the Hockey Stick

Between the 1995 second IPCC report and the 2001 third IPCC report there was a complete revision in the way that recent climate history was portrayed. The supporters of the theory that CO2 changes were driving temperatures up had succeeded in their goal of eliminating the Medieval Warm Period. This rewriting of climate history and the elimination of the Medieval Warm Period was achieved through the famous Hockey Stick graph.

To understand the scale of the revision that had taken place compare the two graphs below. The one on the left is diagram 7c from page 202 of the 1990 IPCC report in which the Medieval Warm Period was portrayed as clearly warmer than the present. On the right is the Hockey Stick graph from the 2001 IPCC report in which the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age have all but disappeared and the recent climate history is dominated by a rapid temperature rise in the last 20th century.


The first blow against the accepted understanding of climate history came in 1995 when the English climatologist Keith Briffa (based at the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia) published in the journal Nature a study with sensational results. According to his studies of tree rings in the Siberian Polar-Ural, there had never been a Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century suddenly appeared as the warmest of the last 1000 years. The most recent part of this study is known as the Yamal study, because of the name of the region it was done in, and it has recently been discredited – see here.
Briffa’s work boldly proposed that the 20th Century had experienced the warmest climate of the millennium and this claim was now the central battlefield for the scientific argument about CO2 forcing. This of course ignored the Climatic Optimum (see Happy Holocene) between 5000 and 9000 years ago when temperatures were significantly higher than today but most people (and certainly the media and politicians) actually think that 5000 years is a long time ago so there was no need to undermine the Climatic Optimum in order to win wide public support for the CO2 forcing hypothesis. Hottest in the last 1000 years would do.

Briffa’s work had an impact and laid the ground work but the real knock out blow that finally succeeded in eliminating the Medieval Warm Period was a paper published in 1998 in Nature by Mann, Bradley and Hughes entitled, “Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries” (you can download it here). This was the original peer reviewed hockey stick article.

Michael Mann of the Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, who was the primary author of the paper, had in one scientific coup overturned the whole of climate history. Using tree rings as a basis for assessing past temperature changes back to the year 1,000 AD, supplemented by other proxies from more recent centuries, Mann completely redrew climate history, turning the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age into non-events. In the new Hockey Stick diagram the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have disappeared, to be replaced by a largely benign and slightly cooling linear trend in climate until 1900 AD after which the Mann’s new graph showed the temperature shooting up in the 20th century in an apparently anomalous and accelerating fashion.

In every other science when such a drastic revision of previously accepted knowledge is promulgated, there is considerable debate and initial scepticism, the new theory facing a gauntlet of criticism and intense review. Only if a new idea survives that process does it become broadly accepted by the scientific peer group and the public at large.

This never happened with Mann’s `Hockey Stick’. The coup was total, bloodless, and swift as Mann’s paper was greeted with a chorus of uncritical approval from the increasingly politically committed supporters of the CO2 greenhouse theory. Within the space of only 12 months, the new theory had become entrenched as a new orthodoxy. The ultimate consummation of the new theory came with the release of the draft of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2000. Based solely on this new paper from a relatively unknown and young scientist the IPCC could now boldly state:

“It is likely that the rate and duration of the warming of the 20th century is larger than any other time during the last 1,000 years. The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and 1998 is likely to have been the warmest year.”

Overturning its own previous view in the 1995 report, the IPCC presented the `Hockey Stick’ as the new orthodoxy with hardly an apology or explanation for the abrupt U-turn since its 1995 report. The IPCC could show almost no supporting scientific justification because other than Mann’s Hockey Stick paper, and Briffa’s Siberian tree ring study there was little in the way of research confirming their new line.

The Hockey Stick graph, the new orthodoxy, was blown up to a wall sized display and used as a back drop for the public launch of the 2001 IPCC report.

Within months of the IPCC draft release, the long-awaited draft U.S. `National Assessment’ Overview document featured the `Hockey Stick’ as the first of many climatic graphs and charts in its report, affirming the crucial importance placed in it by the authors and by the active pro CO2 warming campaign at large. This was now not an esoteric theory about the distant past but rather the core foundation upon which the offensive on global warming was being mounted.

Soon the Hockey Stick was everywhere and with it went the new simple and catchy campaigning slogans “its hotter now than the last 1000 years!“, “1998 was the hottest year for a 1000 years!

Not long after the 2001 IPCC report the Government of Canada sent the hockey stick to schools across the country, and its famous conclusion about the 1990s being the warmest decade of the millennium was the opening line of a pamphlet sent to every household in Canada to promote the Kyoto Protocol.

Al Gore’s Oscar winning and hugely popular film “An Inconvenient Truth” was virtually built around the Hockey Stick (although Gore couldn’t resist tweaking it to make it look even more compelling by changing the way the graph data was displayed along the axis so that the temperature trend line it showed looked even steeper and starker).

In the UK the Government announced that the DVD of the “An Inconvenient Truth” would be sent to every school in the country as a teaching aid.

The Hockey Stick seemed to be carrying all before it. Dr Mann was promoted, given a central position in the IPCC and became a star of the media.

And then it all went horribly wrong.

The Fall of the Hockey Stick

In the years immediately after the 2001 IPCC report it seemed as if the sudden adoption of the Hockey Stick model of the earth’s recent climate past had created a new orthodoxy which could not be challenged. Even when some scientists quietly worried that the new theory about the past climate had been adopted way too quickly or were unhappy about the way that satellite temperature readings didn’t seem to fit the Hockey Stick model or they noticed that new individual proxy studies still seemed to keep showing that the Medieval Warm Period was hotter than today, they mostly stayed silent. They didn’t want to be branded as ‘deniers‘ after all.

Then an unlikely hero emerged in the shape of Stephen McIntyre a retired mineralogist fromToronto. McIntyre is not a scientist or an economist but he does know a lot about statistics, maths and data analysis and he is a curious guy. He didn’t start off as a climate sceptic but was just someone interested in the nuts and bolts of these new and apparently exciting ideas about climate change, and he was curious about how the Hockey Stick graph was made and wanted to see if the raw data looked like hockey sticks too. In the Spring of 2003, Stephen McIntyre requested the raw data set used in the Hockey Stick paper from Mann. After some delay Mann arranged provision of a file which he said was the one used in the original 1998 Hockey Stick paper and McIntyre began to look at how Mann had processed all the data from the numerous different proxy studies cited as his source material and how they had been combined to produce the average that was the basis of the famous Hockey Stick shape.

About this time Steve McIntyre linked up with Ross McKitrick a Canadian economist specialising in environmental economics and policy analysis. Together McIntyre and McKitrick began to dig down into the data that Mann had used in his paper and the statistical techniques used to create the single blended average used to make the Hockey Stick. They immediately began to find problems.

Some of these problems just seemed the sort of errors that are caused by sloppy data handling concerning location labels, use of obsolete editions, unexplained truncations of available series, etc.
Although such errors should have been spotted in the peer review process and they would adversely affect the quality of Mann’s conclusions they had a relatively small effect on the final results.

But McIntyre and McKitrick found one major error, an error so big that it invalidated the entire conclusion of the whole paper. A whopper of an error.

As we have seen what Mann had done was blend together lots of different proxy studies of the past climate going back a 1000 years and then produced an average of all these studies and a single graph showing the trend. Clearly the validity of the techniques used to blend together and average the different data from the various different studies was absolutely critical as to the validity of the final conclusions reached and the resulting Hockey Stick graph. This sort of blending of data sets is a very common statistical exercise and there are very well established techniques for undertaking such an exercise, these techniques use values that are called ‘principal components’ (if you want to know a lot more about the technical details then download McKitrick’s paper from here). What McIntyre and McKitrick discovered was that Mann had used very unusual principal component values and the effect of the choice of value used had drastically skewed the outcome of the blending and averaging exercise. Effectively what Mann’s odd statistical techniques did was to select data that had any sort of Hockey Stick shape and hugely increase its weight in the averaging process. Using Mann’s technique it meant that any data was almost certain to produce a spurious Hockey Stick shape.

Here is an example of the sort of things Mann was doing to the raw date.


Above are two separate temperature reconstructions running from 1400AD, both use tree rings, one is from California and one is from Arizona. Both were were part of the data used by Mann and included in the Hockey Stick average. The top one shows a temperature up tick at the end in the 20th century like the final Hockey Stick, the other shows a relatively flat temperature for the 20th century. Mann’s statistical trick gives the top series, the one with the desired Hockey Stick shape a weighting in the data that is 390 times that of the bottom series just because it has a Hockey Stick bend at the end.

This means that whatever data is fed into Mann’s statistical manipulations is almost bound to produce a Hockey Stick shape whether it is actually in the data or not.

McIntyre and McKitrick then took their critical analysis a step further. When you apply a statistical manipulation to a set of data it is important to make sure that what you doing is not actually distorting the data so much that you are really just creating something new, spurious and false in the numbers. One way to do this is to take the statistical manipulation in question and apply it to several examples of random numbers (sometimes this is called a Red Noise test). To simplify, you use random numbers as input data, then apply the statistical technique you are testing to the random numbers then if the techniques are sound you should get a set of random numbers coming out the other end of the calculations. There should be no false shape imparted to the random noise by the statistical techniques themselves, if what you get out is random numbers then this would prove that the techniques you were testing were not adding anything artificial to the numbers. This is what McIntyre and McKitrick did using the techniques that Mann had used in the Hockey Stick paper. And the results were staggering.

What they found was that 99% of the time you could process random data using Mann’s techniques and it would generate a Hockey Stick shape. This meant that Mann’s claim that the Hockey Stick graph represented an accurate reconstruction of the past climate was in tatters.

Here are some examples. Below are eight graphs. Seven were made by processing random numbers using Mann’s techniques. The eighth is the actual Hockey Stick chart from Mann’s paper. See if you can spot which is which.


McIntyre and McKitrick submitted a letter to Nature about the serious flaws they had uncovered in the methodology used in the Hockey Stick paper. After a long (8-month) reviewing process Nature notified them that they would not publish it. They concluded it could not be explained in the 500-word limit they were prepared to give McIntyre and McKitrick, and one of the referees said he found the material was quite technical and unlikely to be of interest to the general readers!

Instead of publishing anything from McIntyre and McKitrick explaining the serious errors that they had found Nature allowed Mann to make a coy correction in an on-line Supplement (but not in the printed text itself) where he revealed the nonstandard method he had used, and added the unsupported claim that it did not affect the results.

Eventually in 2003, McIntyre and McKitrick published an article entitled “Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series” in the journal Energy and Environment raising concerns about what they had found in Manns Hockey Stick paper.
By this point following further work analysing Mann’s paper McIntyre and McKitrick showed that the data mining procedure did not just pull out a random group of proxies, instead it pulled out a single eccentric group of bristlecone pine chronologies published by Graybill and Idso in 1993 called the Sheep Mountain series.The original authors of the bristlecone study have always stressed that these trees are not proper climate proxies, their study was not trying to do a climate reconstruction and that they were surprised that Mann included it in the Hockey Stick data set. McIntyre and McKitrick had discovered that just removing this odd series from Mann’s proxy set and then applying Mann’s own eccentric statistical averaging caused the Hockey Stick shape to disappear. This revolutionary new model of the recent climate past was that fragile and it revealed the Hockey Stick graph as just a carefully worked artificial creation.

In the graph below the dotted line is the original Hockey Stick chart as published by Mann and as adopted and promoted by the IPCC. The solid line shows the past temperature reconstruction if the data used by Mann is averaged using the correct statistical analysis techniques rather than Mann’s unconventional ones. As can be seen the familiar Medieval Warm Period re-emerges and the 1990s cease to be the hottest of the millennium, that title is now claimed by the early 1400s.


In doing this research McIntyre and McKitrick had legitimately accessed Mann’s public college web site server in order to get a lot of the source material, and whilst doing this they found the data that provoked them to look at the bristlecone series in a folder entitled “Censored”.  It seems that Mann had done this very experiment himself and discovered that the climate graph loses its hockey stick shape when the bristlecone series are removed. In so doing he discovered that the hockey stick was not an accurate chart of the recent global climate pattern, it is an artificial creation that hinges on a flawed group of US proxies that are not even valid climate indicators. But Mann did not disclose this fatal weakness of his results, and it only came to light because of McIntyre and McKitrick’’s laborious efforts.

You can download McKitrick’ss own account of the whole Hockey Stick saga here and this web page compiled by McIntyre and McKitrick has a list of links and documents relating to the Hockey Stick controversy.

Following the publication of McIntyre and McKitrick’s critique of Mann’s work there was an immediate counter attack by some climatologists who had worked closely with Mann in the past. The attack on McIntyre and McKitrick’s critique of Mann’s work really boiled down to saying that of course the Hockey Stick disappeared if you stopped using Mann’s techniques and that you should carry on using Mann’s techniques and then you could get the Hockey Stick back!

Eventually a US senate committee of inquiry was set up under the chairmanship of Edward Wegman a highly respected Professor of mathematics and statistics and in 2006 his report was published. You can download it here.

The report examined the background to Mann’s Hockey Stick paper, the paper itself, the critique of it by McIntyre and McKitrick and took evidence from all the key players. Interestingly Wegman’s committee commissioned some original research into how the small world of climatology actually worked. The study of the social networking of the paleoclimatology world showed how closed it was and how often a small group of scientists both co-wrote and peer reviewed each others papers. For work that depended so much on making statistical claims about trends it was noted that it was surprising that no statisticians ever seemed to be involved in either the research work itself or its peer review.

The key finding in the WEgman Report was that “Our committee believes that the assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in a millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millennium cannot be supported by the MBH98/99 [the technical name of Mann's original Hockey Stick paper]”

The other conclusions of the Wegman Report are also very interesting; It listed the following conclusions:
 
Conclusion 1. The politicization of academic scholarly work leads to confusing public debates. Scholarly papers published in peer reviewed journals are considered the archival record of research. There is usually no requirement to archive supplemental material such as code and data. Consequently, the supplementary material for academic work is often poorly documented and archived and is not sufficiently robust to withstand intense public debate. In the present example there was too much reliance on peer review, which seemed not to be sufficiently independent.

Conclusion 2. Sharing of research materials, data, and results is haphazard and often grudgingly done. We were especially struck by Dr. Mann’s insistence that the code he developed was his intellectual property and that he could legally hold it personally without disclosing it to peers. When code and data are not shared and methodology is not fully disclosed, peers do not have the ability to replicate the work and thus independent verification is impossible.

Conclusion 3. As statisticians, we were struck by the isolation of communities such as the paleoclimate community that rely heavily on statistical methods, yet do not seem to be interacting with the mainstream statistical community. The public policy implications of this debate are financially staggering and yet apparently no independent statistical expertise was sought or used.

Conclusion 4. While the paleoclimate reconstruction has gathered much publicity because it reinforces a policy agenda, it does not provide insight and understanding of the physical mechanisms of climate change except to the extent that tree ring, ice cores and such give physical evidence such as the prevalence of green-house gases. What is needed is deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms of climate change.

Generally the response of the IPCC, the supporters of the CO2 hypothesis and the broader coalition of climate campaigners to all this was a cross between a sneer and a yawn, and the Hockey Stick continued to be used widely as a campaigning and propaganda tool.

It is still being used today.

In 2008 the BBC paid for a large truck to tour central London displaying a giant version of Mann’s Hockey Stick as part of the promotion of its very pro CO2 warming mini series called “Climate Wars”.

Introduction to entropy

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduct...