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Sunday, August 27, 2023

Lung cancer

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lung_cancer

Lung cancer
Other namesLung carcinoma
X-ray with an arrow pointing to a hazy circular mass in the chest
A chest X-ray showing a tumor in the lung (marked by arrow)
SpecialtyOncology, pulmonology
SymptomsCoughing (including coughing up blood), shortness of breath, chest pain
Usual onsetAfter age 40; 70 years on average
TypesSmall-cell lung carcinoma (SCLC), non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC)
Risk factors
Diagnostic methodMedical imaging, tissue biopsy
PreventionAvoid smoking and other environmental mutagens
TreatmentSurgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, molecular therapies, immune checkpoint inhibitors
PrognosisFive-year survival rate: 10 to 20% (most countries)
Frequency2.2 million (2020)
Deaths1.8 million (2020)

Lung cancer, also known as lung carcinoma, is a malignant tumor that begins in the lung. Lung cancer is caused by genetic damage to the DNA of cells in the airways, often caused by cigarette smoking or inhaling damaging chemicals. Damaged airway cells gain the ability to multiply unchecked, causing the growth of a tumor. Without treatment, tumors spread throughout the lung, damaging lung function. Eventually lung tumors metastasize, spreading to other parts of the body.

Early lung cancer often has no symptoms and can only be detected by medical imaging. As the cancer progresses, most people experience nonspecific respiratory problems: coughing, shortness of breath, or chest pain. Other symptoms depend on the location and size of the tumor. Those suspected of having lung cancer typically undergo a series of imaging tests to determine the location and extent of any tumors. Definitive diagnosis of lung cancer requires a biopsy of the suspected tumor be examined by a pathologist under a microscope. In addition to recognizing cancerous cells, a pathologist can classify the tumor according to the type of cells it originates from. Around 15% of cases are small-cell lung cancer, and the remaining 85% (the non-small-cell lung cancers) are adenocarcinomas, squamous-cell carcinomas, and large-cell carcinomas. After diagnosis, further imaging and biopsies are done to determine the cancer's stage based on how far it has spread.

Treatment for early stage lung cancer includes surgery to remove the tumor, sometimes followed by radiation therapy and chemotherapy to kill any remaining cancer cells. Later stage cancer is treated with radiation therapy and chemotherapy alongside drug treatments that target specific cancer subtypes. Even with treatment, only around 20% of people survive five years on from their diagnosis.[4] Survival rates are higher in those diagnosed at an earlier stage, diagnosed at a younger age, and in women compared to men.

Most lung cancer cases are caused by tobacco smoking. The remainder are caused by exposure to hazardous substances like asbestos and radon gas, or by genetic mutations that arise by chance. Consequently, lung cancer prevention efforts encourage people to avoid hazardous chemicals and quit smoking. Quitting smoking both reduces one's chance of developing lung cancer and improves treatment outcomes in those already diagnosed with lung cancer.

Lung cancer is the most diagnosed and deadliest cancer worldwide, with 2.2 million cases in 2020 resulting in 1.8 million deaths. Lung cancer is rare in those younger than 40; the average age at diagnosis is 70 years, and the average age at death 72. Incidence and outcomes vary widely across the world, depending on patterns of tobacco use. Prior to the advent of cigarette smoking in the 20th century, lung cancer was a rare disease. In the 1950s and 1960s, increasing evidence linked lung cancer and tobacco use, culminating in declarations by most large national health bodies discouraging tobacco use.

Signs and symptoms

Early lung cancer often has no symptoms. When symptoms do arise they are often nonspecific respiratory problems – coughing, shortness of breath, or chest pain – that can differ from person to person. Those who experience coughing tend to report either a new cough, or an increase in the frequency or strength of a pre-existing cough. Around one in four cough up blood, ranging from small streaks in the sputum to large amounts. Around half of those diagnosed with lung cancer experience shortness of breath, while 25–50% experience a dull, persistent chest pain that remains in the same location over time. In addition to respiratory symptoms, some experience systemic symptoms including loss of appetite, weight loss, general weakness, fever, and night sweats.

Some less common symptoms suggest tumors in particular locations. Tumors in the thorax can cause breathing problems by obstructing the trachea or disrupting the nerve to the diaphragm; difficulty swallowing by compressing the esophagus; hoarseness by disrupting the nerves of the larynx; and Horner's syndrome by disrupting the sympathetic nervous system. Horner's syndrome is also common in tumors at the top of the lung, known as Pancoast tumors, which also cause shoulder pain that radiates down the little-finger side of the arm as well as destruction of the topmost ribs. Swollen lymph nodes above the collarbone can indicate a tumor that has spread within the chest. Tumors obstructing bloodflow to the heart can cause superior vena cava syndrome (swelling of the upper body and shortness of breath), while tumors infiltrating the area around the heart can cause fluid buildup around the heart, arrythmia (irregular heartbeat), and heart failure.

About one in three people diagnosed with lung cancer have symptoms caused by metastases in sites other than the lungs. Lung cancer can metastasize anywhere in the body, with different symptoms depending on the location. Brain metastases can cause headache, nausea, vomiting, seizures, and neurological deficits. Bone metastases can cause pain, bone fractures, and compression of the spinal cord. Metastasis into the bone marrow can deplete blood cells and cause leukoerythroblastosis (immature cells in the blood). Liver metastases can cause liver enlargement, pain in the right upper quadrant of the abdomen, fever, and weight loss.

Lung tumors often cause the release of body-altering hormones, which cause unusual symptoms, called paraneoplastic syndromes. Inappropriate hormone release can cause dramatic shifts in concentrations of blood minerals. Most common is hypercalcemia (high blood calcium) caused by over-production of parathyroid hormone-related protein or parathyroid hormone. Hypercalcemia can manifest as nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, constipation, increased thirst, frequent urination, and altered mental status. Those with lung cancer also commonly experience hypokalemia (low potassium) due to inappropriate secretion of adrenocorticotropic hormone, as well as hyponatremia (low sodium) due to overproduction of antidiuretic hormone or atrial natriuretic peptide. About one of three people with lung cancer develop nail clubbing, while up to one in ten experience hypertrophic pulmonary osteoarthropathy (nail clubbing, joint soreness, and skin thickening). A variety of autoimmune disorders can arise as paraneoplastic syndromes in those with lung cancer, including Lambert–Eaton myasthenic syndrome (which causes muscle weakness), sensory neuropathies, muscle inflammation, brain swelling, and autoimmune deterioration of cerebellum, limbic system, or brainstem. Up to one in twelve people with lung cancer have paraneoplastic blood clotting, including migratory venous thrombophlebitis, clots in the heart, and disseminated intravascular coagulation (clots throughout the body). Paraneoplastic syndromes involving the skin and kidneys are rare, each occurring in up to 1% of those with lung cancer.

Diagnosis

CT scan of lung, with tumor appearing as a sharp white shape
CT scan showing a cancerous tumor in the left lung

A person suspected of having lung cancer will have imaging tests done to evaluate the presence, extent, and location of tumors. First, many primary care providers perform a chest X-ray to look for a mass inside the lung. The X-ray may reveal an obvious mass, the widening of the mediastinum (suggestive of spread to lymph nodes there), atelectasis (lung collapse), consolidation (pneumonia), or pleural effusion; however, some lung tumors are not visible by X-ray. Next, many undergo computed tomography (CT) scanning, which can reveal the sizes and locations of tumors.

A definitive diagnosis of lung cancer requires a biopsy of the suspected tissue be histologically examined for cancer cells. Given the location of lung cancer tumors, biopsies can often be obtained by minimally invasive techniques: a fiberoptic bronchoscope that can retrieve tissue (sometimes guided by endobronchial ultrasound), fine needle aspiration, or other imaging-guided biopsy through the skin. Those who cannot undergo a typical biopsy procedure may instead have a liquid biopsy taken (that is, a sample of some body fluid) which may contain circulating tumor DNA that can be detected.

Diagram of a machine attached to a tube running down a person's mouth and into their trachea and bronchi
Diagram showing a bronchoscopy

Imaging is also used to assess the extent of cancer spread. Positron emission tomography (PET) scanning or combined PET-CT scanning is often used to locate metastases in the body. Since PET scanning is less sensitive in the brain, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) – or CT where MRI is unavailable – to scan the brain for metastases in those with NSCLC and large tumors, or tumors that have spread to the nearby lymph nodes. When imaging suggests the tumor has spread, the suspected metastasis is often biopsied to confirm that it is cancerous. Lung cancer most commonly metastasizes to the brain, bones, liver, and adrenal glands.

Lung cancer can often appear as a solitary pulmonary nodule on a chest radiograph or CT scan. In lung cancer screening studies as many as 30% of those screened have a lung nodule, the majority of which turn out to be benign. Besides lung cancer many other diseases can also give this appearance, including hamartomas, and infectious granulomas caused by tuberculosis, histoplasmosis, or coccidioidomycosis.

Classification

Microscope images of lung tissue. At top-left, healthy lung with clear air-filled alveoli. Others are full of tumor or material, per caption.
H&E stained samples from lung biopsies: (Top-left) Normal bronchiole surrounded by alveoli, (top-right) adenocarcinoma with papillary (finger-like) growth, (bottom-left) alveoli filled with mucin suggesting adenocarcinoma nearby, (bottom-right) squamous-cell carcinoma, with alveoli full of keratin.

At diagnosis, lung cancer is classified based on the type of cells the tumor is derived from; tumors derived from different cells progress and respond to treatment differently. There are two main types of lung cancer, categorized by the size and appearance of the malignant cells seen by a histopathologist under a microscope: small cell lung cancer (SCLC; 15% of cases) and non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC; 85% of cases). SCLC tumors are often found near the center of the lungs, in the major airways. Their cells appear small with ill-defined boundaries, not much cytoplasm, many mitochondria, and have distinctive nuclei with granular-looking chromatin and no visible nucleoli. NSCLCs comprise a group of three cancer types: adenocarcinoma, squamous-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma. Nearly 40% of lung cancers are adenocarcinomas. Their cells grow in three-dimensional clumps, resemble glandular cells, and may produce mucin. About 30% of lung cancers are squamous-cell carcinomas. They typically occur close to large airways. The tumors consist of sheets of cells, with layers of keratin. A hollow cavity and associated cell death are commonly found at the center of the tumor. Less than 10% of lung cancers are large-cell carcinomas, so named because the cells are large, with excess cytoplasm, large nuclei, and conspicuous nucleoli. Around 10% of lung cancers are rarer types. These include mixes of the above subtypes like adenosquamous carcinoma, and rare subtypes such as carcinoid tumors, and sarcomatoid carcinomas.

Several lung cancer types are subclassified based on the growth characteristics of the cancer cells. Adenocarcinomas are classified as lepidic (growing along the surface of intact alveolar walls), acinar and papillary, or micropapillary and solid pattern. Lepidic adenocarcinomas tend to be least aggressive, while micropapillary and solid pattern adenocarcinomas are most aggressive.

In addition to examining cell morphology, biopsies are often stained by immunohistochemistry to confirm lung cancer classification. SCLCs bear the markers of neuroendocrine cells, such as chromogranin, synaptophysin, and CD56. Adenocarcinomas tend to express Napsin-A and TTF-1; squamous cell carcinomas lack Napsin-A and TTF-1, but express p63 and its cancer-specific isoform p40. CK7 and CK20 are also commonly used to differentiate lung cancers. CK20 is found in several cancers, but typically absent from lung cancer. CK7 is present in many lung cancers, but absent from squamous cell carcinomas.[]

Staging

Stage group according to TNM classification in lung cancer
TNM Stage group
T1a N0 M0 IA1
T1b N0 M0 IA2
T1c N0 M0 IA3
T2a N0 M0 IB
T2b N0 M0 IIA
T1–T2 N1 M0 IIB
T3 N0 M0
T1–T2 N2 M0 IIIA
T3 N1 M0
T4 N0–N1 M0
T1–T2 N3 M0 IIIB
T3–T4 N2 M0
T3–T4 N3 M0 IIIC
Any T, any N, M1a–M1b IVA
Any T, any N, M1c IVB

Lung cancer staging is an assessment of the degree of spread of the cancer from its original source. It is one of the factors affecting both the prognosis and the treatment of lung cancer.

SCLC is typically staged with a relatively simple system: limited stage or extensive stage. Around a third of people are diagnosed at the limited stage, meaning cancer is confined to one side of the chest, within the scope of a single radiotherapy field. The other two thirds are diagnosed at the "extensive stage", with cancer spread to both sides of the chest, or to other parts of the body.

NSCLC – and sometimes SCLC – is typically staged with the American Joint Committee on Cancer's Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging system. The size and extent of the tumor (T), spread to regional lymph nodes (N), and distant metastases (M) are scored individually, and combined to form stage groups.

Relatively small tumors are designated T1, which are subdivided by size: tumors ≤ 1 centimeter (cm) across are T1a; 1–2 cm T1b; 2–3 cm T1c. Tumors up to 5 cm across, or those that have spread to the visceral pleura (tissue covering the lung) or main bronchi, are designated T2. T2a designates 3–4 cm tumors; T2b 4–5 cm tumors. T3 tumors are up to 7 cm across, have multiple nodules in the same lobe of the lung, or invade the chest wall, diaphragm (or the nerve that controls it), or area around the heart. Tumors that are larger than 7 cm, have nodules spread in different lobes of a lung, or invade the mediastinum (center of the chest cavity), heart, largest blood vessels that supply the heart, trachea, esophagus, or spine are designated T4. Lymph node staging depends on the extent of local spread: with the cancer metastasized to no lymph nodes (N0), pulmonary or hilar nodes (along the bronchi) on the same side as the tumor (N1), mediastinal or subcarinal lymph nodes (in the middle of the lungs, N2), or lymph nodes on the opposite side of the lung from the tumor (N3). Metastases are staged as no metastases (M0), nearby metastases (M1a; the space around the lung or the heart, or the opposite lung), a single distant metastasis (M1b), or multiple metastases (M1c).

These T, N, and M scores are combined to designate a stage grouping for the cancer. Cancer limited to smaller tumors is designated stage I. Disease with larger tumors or spread to the nearest lymph nodes is stage II. Cancer with the largest tumors or extensive lymph node spread is stage III. Cancer that has metastasized is stage IV. Each stage is further subdivided based on the combination of T, N, and M scores.

TNM classification in lung cancer
T: Primary tumor
T0 No primary tumor
Tis Carcinoma in situ
T1 Tumor ≤ 3 cm across, surrounded by lung or visceral pleura

T1mi Minimally invasive adenocarcinoma
T1a Tumor ≤ 1 cm across
T1b Tumor > 1 cm but ≤ 2 cm across
T1c Tumor > 2 cm but ≤ 3 cm across
T2 Any of: Tumor size > 3 cm but ≤ 5 cm across
Involvement of the main bronchus but not the carina
Invasion of visceral pleura
Atelectasis/obstructive pneumonitis extending to the hilum

T2a Tumor > 3 cm but ≤ 4 cm across
T2b Tumor > 4 cm but ≤ 5 cm across
T3 Any of: Tumor size > 5 cm but ≤ 7 cm across
Invasion into the chest wall, phrenic nerve, or parietal pericardium
Separate tumor nodule in the same lobe
T4 Any of: Tumor size > 7 cm
Invasion of the diaphragm, mediastinum, heart, great vessels, trachea, carina, recurrent laryngeal nerve, esophagus, or vertebral body
Separate tumor nodule in a different lobe of the same lung
N: Lymph nodes
N0 No lymph node metastasis
N1 Metastasis to ipsilateral peribronchial or hilar lymph nodes
N2 Metastasis to ipsilateral mediastinal or subcarinal lymph nodes
N3 Any of: Metastasis to scalene or supraclavicular lymph nodes
Metastasis to contralateral hilar or mediastinal lymph nodes
M: Metastasis
M0 No distant metastasis
M1a Any of: Separate tumor nodule in the other lung
Tumor with pleural or pericardial nodules
Malignant pleural or pericardial effusion
M1b A single metastasis outside the chest
M1c Two or more metastases outside the chest

Screening

Some countries recommend that people who are at a high risk of developing lung cancer be screened at different intervals using low-dose CT lung scans. Screening programs may result in early detection of lung tumors in people who are not yet experiencing symptoms of lung cancer, ideally, early enough that the tumors can be successfully treated and result in decreased mortality. There is evidence that regular low-dose CT scans in people at high risk of developing lung cancer reduces total lung cancer deaths by as much as 20%. Despite evidence of benefit in these populations, potential harms of screening include the potential for a person to have a 'false positive' screening result that may lead to unnecessary testing, invasive procedures, and distress. Although rare, there is also a risk of radiation-induced cancer. The United States Preventive Services Task Force recommends yearly screening using low-dose CT in people between 55 and 80 who have a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years. The European Commission recommends that cancer screening programs across the European Union be extended to include low-dose CT lung scans for current or previous smokers. Similarly, The Canadian Task Force for Preventative Health recommends that people who are current or former smokers (smoking history of more than 30 pack years) and who are between the ages of 55–74 years be screened for lung cancer.[36]

Treatment

Treatment for lung cancer depends on the cancer's specific cell type, how far it has spread, and the person's health. Common treatments for early stage cancer includes surgical removal of the tumor, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. For later-stage cancer, chemotherapy and radiation therapy are combined with newer targeted molecular therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. All lung cancer treatment regimens are combined with lifestyle changes and palliative care to improve quality of life.

Small-cell lung cancer

A person lays on a table under a large machine.
Setup for radiation therapy. The person lies flat while a radiation beam is focused on the tumor site

Limited-stage SCLC is typically treated with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. For chemotherapy, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and American College of Chest Physicians guidelines recommend four to six cycles of a platinum-based chemotherapeuticcisplatin or carboplatin – combined with either etoposide or irinotecan. This is typically combined with thoracic radiation therapy – 45 Gray (Gy) twice-daily – alongside the first two chemotherapy cycles. First-line therapy causes remission in up to 80% of those who receive it; however most people relapse with chemotherapy-resistant disease. Those who relapse are given second-line chemotherapies. Topotecan and lurbinectedin are approved by the US FDA for this purpose. Irinotecan, paclitaxel, docetaxel, vinorelbine, etoposide, and gemcitabine are also sometimes used, and are similarly efficacious. Prophylactic cranial irradiation can reduce the risk of brain metastases and improve survival in those with limited-stage disease.

Extensive-stage SCLC is treated first with etoposide along with either cisplatin or carboplatin. Radiotherapy is used only to shrink tumors that are causing particularly severe symptoms. Combining standard chemotherapy with an immune checkpoint inhibitor can improve survival for a minority of those affected, extending the average person's lifespan by around 2 months.

Non-small-cell lung cancer

A lung showing a small tumor. Increasingly large pieces are removed for wedge resection, segmentectomy, and lobectomy respectively
The extent of common surgeries to remove a lung tumor (shown in black). Areas that are surgically removed along with the tumor are shown in blue.

For stage I and stage II NSCLC the first line of treatment is often surgical removal of the affected lobe of the lung. For those not well enough to tolerate full lobe removal, a smaller chunk of lung tissue can be removed by wedge resection or segmentectomy surgery. Those with centrally located tumors and otherwise-healthy respiratory systems may have more extreme surgery to remove an entire lung (pneumonectomy). Experienced thoracic surgeons, and a high-volume surgery clinic improve chances of survival. Those who are unable or unwilling to undergo surgery can instead receive radiation therapy. Stereotactic body radiation therapy is best practice, typically administered several times over 1–2 weeks. Chemotherapy has little effect in those with stage I NSCLC, and may worsen disease outcomes in those with the earliest disease. In those with stage II disease, chemotherapy is usually initiated six to twelve weeks after surgery, with up to four cycles of cisplatin – or carboplatin in those with kidney problems, neuropathy, or hearing impairment – combined with vinorelbine, pemetrexed, gemcitabine, or docetaxel.

Treatment for those with stage III NSCLC depends on the nature of their disease. Those with more limited spread may undergo surgery to have the tumor and affected lymph nodes removed, followed by chemotherapy and potentially radiotherapy. Those with particularly large tumors (T4) and those for whom surgery is impractical are treated with combination chemotherapy and radiotherapy along with the immunotherapy durvalumab. Combined chemotherapy and radiation enhances survival compared to chemotherapy followed by radiation, though the combination therapy comes with harsher side effects.

Those with stage IV disease are treated with combinations of pain medication, radiotherapy, immunotherapy, and chemotherapy. Many cases of advanced disease can be treated with targeted therapies depending on the genetic makeup of the cancerous cells. Up to 30% of tumors have mutations in the EGFR gene that result in an overactive EGFR protein; these can be treated with EGFR inhibitors osimertinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib, or dacomitinib – with osimertinib known to be superior to erlotinib and gefitinib, and all superior to chemotherapy alone. Up to 7% of those with NSCLC harbor mutations that result in hyperactive ALK protein, which can be treated with ALK inhibitors crizotinib, or its successors alectinib, brigatinib, and ceritinib. Those treated with ALK inhibitors who relapse can then be treated with the third-generation ALK inhibitor lorlatinib. Up to 5% with NSCLC have overactive MET, which can be inhibited with MET inhibitors capmatinib or tepotinib. Targeted therapies are also available for some cancers with rare mutations. Cancers with hyperactive BRAF (around 2% of NSCLC) can be treated by dabrafenib combined with the MEK inhibitor trametinib; those with activated ROS1 (around 1% of NSCLC) can be inhibited by crizotinib, lorlatinib, or entrectinib; overactive NTRK (<1% of NSCLC) by entrectinib or larotrectinib; active RET (around 1% of NSCLC) by selpercatinib.

People whose NSCLC is not targetable by current molecular therapies instead can be treated with combination chemotherapy plus immune checkpoint inhibitors, which prevent cancer cells from inactivating immune T cells. The chemotherapeutic agent of choice depends on the NSCLC subtype: cisplatin plus gemcitabine for squamous cell carcinoma, cisplatin plus pemetrexed for non-squamous cell carcinoma. Immune checkpoint inhibitors are most effective against tumors that express the protein PD-L1, but are sometimes effective in those that do not. Treatment with pembrolizumab, atezolizumab, or combination nivolumab plus ipilimumab are all superior to chemotherapy alone against tumors expressing PD-L1. Those who relapse on the above are treated with second-line chemotherapeutics docetaxel and ramucirumab.

Palliative care

A machine attached to a tube that goes into a person's mouth and into a bronchus. At the end, an object emits radiation at a lung tumor.
Brachytherapy (internal radiotherapy) for lung cancer given via the airway

Integrating palliative care (medical care focused on improving symptoms and lessening discomfort) into lung cancer treatment from the time of diagnosis improves the survival time and quality of life of those with lung cancer. Particularly common symptoms of lung cancer are shortness of breath and pain. Supplemental oxygen, improved airflow, re-orienting an affected person in bed, and low-dose morphine can all improve shortness of breath. In around 20 to 30% of those with lung cancer – particularly those with late-stage disease – growth of the tumor can narrow or block the airway, causing coughing and difficulty breathing. Obstructing tumors can be surgically removed where possible, though typically those with airway obstruction are not well enough for surgery. In such cases the American College of Chest Physicians recommends opening the airway by inserting a stent, attempting to shrink the tumor with localized radiation (brachytherapy), or physically removing the blocking tissue by bronchoscopy, sometimes aided by thermal or laser ablation. Other causes of lung cancer-associated shortness of breath can be treated directly, such as antibiotics for a lung infection, diuretics for pulmonary edema, benzodiazepines for anxiety, and steroids for airway obstruction.

Up to 92% of those with lung cancer report pain, either from tissue damage at the tumor site(s) or nerve damage. The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a three-tiered system for managing cancer pain. For those with mild pain (tier one), the WHO recommends acetominophen or a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug. Around a third of people experience moderate (tier two) or severe (tier three) pain, for which the WHO recommends opioid painkillers. Opioids are typically effective at easing nociceptive pain (pain caused by damage to various body tissues). Opioids are occasionally effective at easing neuropathic pain (pain cauesd by nerve damage). Neuropathic agents such as anticonvulsants, tricyclic antidepressants, and serotonin–norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, are often used to ease neuropathic pain, either alone or in combination with opioids. In many cases, targeted radiotherapy can be used to shrink tumors, reducing pain and other symptoms caused by tumor growth.

Individuals who have advanced disease and are approaching end-of-life can benefit from dedicated end-of-life care to manage symptoms and ease suffering. As in earlier disease, pain and difficulty breathing are common, and can be managed with opioid pain medications, transitioning from oral medication to injected medication if the affected individual loses the ability to swallow. Coughing is also common, and can be managed with opioids or cough suppressants. Some experience terminal delirium – confused behavior, unexplained movements, or a reversal of the sleep-wake cycle – which can be managed by antipsychotic drugs, low-dose sedatives, and investigating other causes of discomfort such as low blood sugar, constipation, and sepsis. In the last few days of life, many develop terminal secretions – pooled fluid in the airways that can cause a rattling sound while breathing. This is thought not to cause respiratory problems, but can distress family members and caregivers. Terminal secretions can be reduced by anticholinergic medications. Even those who are non-communicative or have reduced consciousness may be able to experience cancer-related pain, so pain medications are typically continued until the time of death.

Prognosis

Graph showing five-year survival from lung cancer increasing from 1975 (11.7% of people) to 2015 (25.2%).
Percent of people who survive five years from a lung cancer diagnosis over time, according to the NIH SEER program
Five-year survival in those diagnosed with lung cancer, by stage
Clinical stage Five-year survival (%)
IA1 92
IA2 83
IA3 77
IB 68
IIA 60
IIB 53
IIIA 36
IIIB 26
IIIC 13
IVA 10
IVB 0

Around 19% of people diagnosed with lung cancer survive five years from diagnosis, though prognosis varies based on the stage of the disease at diagnosis and the type of lung cancer. Prognosis is better for people with lung cancer diagnosed at an earlier stage; those diagnosed at the earliest TNM stage, IA1 (small tumor, no spread), have a two-year survival of 97% and five-year survival of 92%. Those diagnosed at the most-advanced stage, IVB, have a two-year survival of 10% and a five-year survival of 0%. Five-year survival is higher in women (22%) than men (16%). Women tend to be diagnosed with less-advanced disease, and have better outcomes than men diagnosed at the same stage. Average five-year survival also varies across the world, with particularly high five-year survival in Japan (33%), and five-year survival above 20% in 12 other countries: Mauritius, Canada, the US, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Latvia, Iceland, Sweden, Austria, and Switzerland.

SCLC is particularly aggressive. 10–15% of people survive five years after a SCLC diagnosis. As with other types of lung cancer, the extent of disease at diagnosis also influences prognosis. The average person diagnosed with limited-stage SCLC survives 12–20 months from diagnosis; with extensive-stage SCLC around 12 months. While SCLC often responds initially to treatment, most people eventually relapse with chemotherapy-resistant cancer, surviving an average 3–4 months from the time of relapse. Those with limited stage SCLC that go into complete remission after chemotherapy and radiotherapy have a 50% chance of brain metastases developing within the next two years – a chance reduced by prophylactic cranial irradiation.

Several other personal and disease factors are associated with improved outcomes. Those diagnosed at a younger age tend to have better outcomes. Those who smoke or experience weight loss as a symptom tend to have worse outcomes. Tumor mutations in KRAS are associated with reduced survival.

Experience

The uncertainty of lung cancer prognosis often causes stress, and makes future planning difficult, for those with lung cancer and their families. Those whose cancer goes into remission often experience fear of their cancer returning or progressing, associated with poor quality of life, negative mood, and functional impairment. This fear is exacerbated by frequent or prolonged surveillance imaging, and other reminders of cancer risks.

Causes

Lung cancer is caused by genetic damage to the DNA of lung cells. These changes are sometimes random, but are typically induced by breathing in toxic substances such as cigarette smoke. Cancer-causing genetic changes affect the cell's normal functions, including cell proliferation, programmed cell death (apoptosis), and DNA repair. Eventually, cells gain enough genetic changes to grow uncontrollably, forming a tumor, and eventually spreading within and then beyond the lung. Rampant tumor growth and spread causes the symptoms of lung cancer. If unstopped, the spreading tumor will eventually cause the death of affected individuals.

Smoking

Graph showing that lung cancer rates rise and fall with cigarette consumption.
Relationship between cigarette consumption per person (blue) and male lung cancer rates (dark yellow) in the US

Tobacco smoking is by far the major contributor to lung cancer, causing 80% to 90% of cases. Lung cancer risk increases with quantity of cigarettes consumed. Tobacco smoking's carcinogenic effect is due to various chemicals in tobacco smoke that cause DNA mutations, increasing the chance of cells becoming cancerous. The International Agency for Research on Cancer identifies at least 50 chemicals in tobacco smoke as carcinogenic, and the most potent is tobacco-specific nitrosamines. Exposure to these chemicals causes several kinds of DNA damage: DNA adducts, oxidative stress, and breaks in the DNA strands. Being around tobacco smoke – called passive smoking – can also cause lung cancer. Living with a tobacco smoker increases one's risk of developing lung cancer by 24%. An estimated 17% of lung cancer cases in those who do not smoke are caused by high levels of environmental tobacco smoke.

Vaping may be a risk factor for lung cancer, but less than that of cigarettes, and further research as of 2021 is necessary due to the length of time it can take for lung cancer to develop following an exposure to carcinogens.

The smoking of non-tobacco products is not known to be associated with lung cancer development. Marijuana smoking does not seem to independently cause lung cancer – despite the relatively high levels of tar and known carcinogens in marijuana smoke. The relationship between smoking cocaine and developing lung cancer has not been studied as of 2020.

Environmental exposures

A sign reads "Danger, asbestos, cancer and lung diseaes hazard, authorized personnel only"
Sign warning of potential for asbestos exposure, typically used during demolition/renovation of asbestos-containing buildings

Exposure to a variety of other toxic chemicals – typically encountered in certain occupations – is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. Occupational exposures to carcinogens cause 9–15% of lung cancer. A prominent example is asbestos, which causes lung cancer either directly or indirectly by inflaming the lung. Exposure to all commercially available forms of asbestos increases cancer risk, and cancer risk increases with time of exposure. Asbestos and cigarette smoking increase risk synergistically – that is, the risk of someone who smokes and has asbestos exposure dying from lung cancer is much higher than would be expected from adding the two risks together. Similarly, exposure to radon, a naturally occurring breakdown product of the Earth's radioactive elements, is associated with increased lung cancer risk. Radon levels vary with geography. Underground miners have the greatest exposure; however even the lower levels of radon that seep into residential spaces can increase occupants' risk of lung cancer. Like asbestos, cigarette smoking and radon exposure increase risk synergistically. Radon exposure is responsible for between 3% and 14% of lung cancer cases.

Several other chemicals encountered in various occupations are also associated with increased lung cancer risk including arsenic used in wood preservation, pesticide application, and some ore smelting; ionizing radiation encountered during uranium mining; vinyl chloride in papermaking; beryllium in jewelers, ceramics workers, missile technicians, and nuclear reactor workers; chromium in stainless steel production, welding, and hide tanning; nickel in electroplaters, glass workers, metal workers, welders, and those who make batteries, ceramics, and jewelry; and diesel exhaust encountered by miners.

Exposure to air pollution, especially particulate matter released by motor vehicle exhaust and fossil fuel-burning power plants, increases the risk of lung cancer. Indoor air pollution from burning wood, charcoal, or crop residue for cooking and heating has also been linked to an increased risk of developing lung cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified emission from household burning of coal and biomass as "carcinogenic" and "probably carcinogenic" respectively.

Other diseases

Several other diseases that cause inflammation of the lung increase one's risk of lung cancer. This association is strongest for chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder – the risk is highest in those with the most inflammation, and reduced in those whose inflammation is treated with inhaled corticosteroids. Other inflammatory lung and immune system diseases such as alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, interstitial fibrosis, scleroderma, Chlamydia pneumoniae infection, tuberculosis, and HIV infection are associated with increased risk of developing lung cancer. Epstein–Barr virus is associated with the development of the rare lung cancer lymphoepithelioma-like carcinoma in people from Asia, but not in people from Western nations. A role for several other infectious agents – namely human papillomaviruses, BK virus, JC virus, human cytomegalovirus, SV40, measles virus, and Torque teno virus – in lung cancer development has been studied but remains inconclusive as of 2020.

Genetics

Particular gene combinations may make some people more susceptible to lung cancer. Close family members of those with lung cancer have around twice the risk of developing lung cancer as an average person, even after controlling for occupational exposure and smoking habits. Genome-wide association studies have identified many gene variants associated with lung cancer risk, each of which contributes a small risk increase. Many of these genes participate in pathways known to be involved in carcinogenesis, namely DNA repair, inflammation, the cell division cycle, cellular stress responses, and chromatin remodeling. Some rare genetic disorders that increase the risk of various cancers also increase the risk of lung cancer, namely retinoblastoma and Li–Fraumeni syndrome.

Pathogenesis

As with all cancers, lung cancer is triggered by mutations that allow tumor cells to endlessly multiply, stimulate blood vessel growth, avoid apoptosis (programmed cell death), generate pro-growth signalling molecules, ignore anti-growth signalling molecules, and eventually spread into surrounding tissue or metastasize throughout the body. Different tumors can acquire these abilities through different mutations, though generally cancer-contributing mutations activate oncogenes and inactivate tumor suppressors. Some mutations – called "driver mutations" – are particularly common in adenocarcinomas, and contribute disproportionately to tumor development. These typically occur in the receptor tyrosine kinases EGFR, BRAF, MET, KRAS, and PIK3CA. Similarly, some adenocarcinomas are driven by chromosomal rearrangements that result in overexpression of tyrosine kinases ALK, ROS1, NTRK, and RET. A given tumor will typically have just one driver mutation. In contrast, SCLCs rarely have these driver mutations, and instead often have mutations that have inactivated the tumor suppressors p53 and RB. A cluster of tumor suppressor genes on the short arm of chromosome 3 are often lost early in the development of all lung cancers.

Prevention

Smoking cessation

Those who smoke can reduce their lung cancer risk by quitting smoking – the risk reduction is greater the longer a person goes without smoking. Self-help programs tend to have little influence on success of smoking cessation, whereas combined counseling and pharmacotherapy improve cessation rates. The US FDA has approved antidepressant therapies and the nicotine replacement varenicline as first-line therapies to aid in smoking cessation. Clonidine and nortriptyline are recommended second-line therapies. The majority of those diagnosed with lung cancer attempt to quit smoking; around half succeed. Even after lung cancer diagnosis, smoking cessation improves treatment outcomes, reducing cancer treatment toxicity and failure rates, and lengthening survival time.

A sign reads "No smoking on platform"
No smoking sign at a train station in Colorado
 
A cigarette package features warning text and a large photograph of a person with a large side wound.
Graphic cigarette packaging in Belgium labelled "open wound following lung surgery"

At a societal level, smoking cessation can be promoted by tobacco control policies that make tobacco products more difficult to obtain or use. Many such policies are mandated or recommended by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, ratified by 182 countries, representing over 90% of the world's population. The WHO groups these policies into six intervention categories, each of which has been shown to be effective in reducing the cost of tobacco-induced disease burden on a population:

  1. increasing the price of tobacco by raising taxes;
  2. banning tobacco use in public places to reduce exposure;
  3. banning tobacco advertisements;
  4. publicizing the dangers of tobacco products;
  5. instituting help programs for those attempting to quit smoking; and
  6. monitoring population-level tobacco use and the effectiveness of tobacco control policies.

Policies implementing each intervention are associated with decreases in tobacco smoking prevalence. The more policies implemented, the greater the reduction. Reducing access to tobacco for adolescents is particularly effective at decreasing uptake of habitual smoking, and adolescent demand for tobacco products is particularly sensitive to increases in cost.

Diet and lifestyle

Several foods and dietary supplements have been associated with lung cancer risk. High consumption of some animal products – red meat (but not other meats or fish), saturated fats, as well as nitrosamines and nitrites (found in salted and smoked meats) – is associated with an increased risk of developing lung cancer. In contrast, high consumption of fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer, particularly consumption of cruciferous vegetables and raw fruits and vegetables. Based on the beneficial effects of fruits and vegetables, supplementation of several individual vitamins have been studied. Supplementation with vitamin A or beta-carotene had no effect on lung cancer, and instead slightly increased mortality. Dietary supplementation with vitamin E or retinoids similarly had no effect. Consumption of polyunsaturated fats, tea, alcoholic beverages, and coffee are all associated with reduced risk of developing lung cancer.

Along with diet, body weight and exercise habits are also associated with lung cancer risk. Being overweight is associated with a lower risk of developing lung cancer, possibly due to the tendency of those who smoke cigarettes to have a lower body weight. However, being underweight is also associated with a reduced lung cancer risk. Some studies have shown those who exercise regularly or have better cardiovascular fitness to have a lower risk of developing lung cancer.

Epidemiology

World map with countries in one of five colors
Age-standardized lung cancer incidence in 2020 per 100,000 people:
  >40
  30–40
  20–30
  10–20
  <10

Worldwide, lung cancer is the most diagnosed type of cancer, and the leading cause of cancer death. In 2020, 2.2 million new cases were diagnosed, and 1.8 million people died from lung cancer, representing 18% of all cancer deaths. Lung cancer deaths are expected to rise globally to nearly 3 million annual deaths by 2035, due to high rates of tobacco use and aging populations. Lung cancer is rare in those younger than 40; after that, cancer rates increase with age, stabilizing around age 80. The median age of a person diagnosed with lung cancer is 70; the median age of death is 72.

Lung cancer incidence varies by geography and sex, with the highest rates in Micronesia, Polynesia, Europe, Asia, and North America; and lowest rates in Africa and Central America. Globally, around 8% of men and 6% of women develop lung cancer in their lifetimes. The ratio of lung cancer cases in men to women varies considerably by geography, from as high as nearly 12:1 in Belarus, to 1:1 in Brazil, likely due to differences in smoking patterns.

Lung cancer risk is influenced by environmental exposure, namely cigarette smoking, as well as occupational risks in mining, shipbuilding, petroleum refining, and occupations that involve asbestos exposure. People who have smoked cigarettes account for 85–90% of lung cancer cases, and 15% of smokers develop lung cancer. Non-smokers' risk of developing lung cancer is also influenced by tobacco smoking; secondhand smoke (that is, being around tobacco smoke) increases risk of developing lung cancer around 30%, with risk correlated to duration of exposure.

History

Lung cancer was uncommon before the advent of cigarette smoking. Surgeon Alton Ochsner recalled that as a Washington University medical student in 1919, his entire medical school class was summoned to witness an autopsy of a man who had died from lung cancer, and told they may never see such a case again. In Isaac Adler's 1912 Primary Malignant Growths of the Lungs and Bronchi, he called lung cancer "among the rarest forms of disease"; Adler tabulated the 374 cases of lung cancer that had been published to that time, concluding the disease was increasing in incidence. By the 1920s, several theories had been put forward linking the increase in lung cancer to various chemical exposures that had increased including tobacco smoke, asphalt dust, industrial air pollution, and poisonous gasses from World War I.

Over the following decades, growing scientific evidence linked lung cancer to cigarette consumption. Through the 1940s and early 1950s, several case-control studies showed that those with lung cancer were more likely to have smoked cigarettes compared to those without lung cancer. These were followed by several prospective cohort studies in the 1950s – including the first report of the British Doctors Study in 1954 – all of which showed that those who smoked tobacco were at dramatically increased risk of developing lung cancer.

Full page text advertisement
"A Frank Statement to Cigarette Smokers", an advertisement run in newspapers nationwide in January 1954 as part of Hill & Knowlton's campaign to cast doubt on the link between cigarettes and cancer

A 1953 study showing that tar from cigarette smoke could cause tumors in mice attracted attention in the popular press, with features in Life and Time magazines. Facing public concern and falling stock prices, the CEOs of six of the largest American tobacco companies gathered in December 1953. They enlisted the help of public relations firm Hill & Knowlton to craft a multi-pronged strategy aiming to distract from accumulating evidence by funding tobacco-friendly research, declaring the link to lung cancer "controversial", and demanding ever-more research to settle this purported controversy. At the same time, internal research at the major tobacco companies supported the link between tobacco and lung cancer; though these results were kept secret from the public.

As evidence linking tobacco use with lung cancer mounted, various health bodies announced official positions linking the two. In 1962, the United Kingdom's Royal College of Physicians officially concluded that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer, prompting the United States Surgeon General to empanel an advisory committee, which deliberated in secret over nine sessions between November 1962 and December 1963. The committee's report, published in January 1964, firmly concluded that cigarette smoking "far outweighs all other factors" in causing lung cancer. The report received substantial coverage in the popular press, and is widely seen as a turning point for public recognition that tobacco smoking causes lung cancer.

The connection with radon gas was first recognized among miners in Germany's Ore Mountains. As early as 1500, miners were noted to develop a deadly disease called "mountain sickness" ("Bergkrankheit"), identified as lung cancer by the late 19th century. By 1938, up to 80% of miners in affected regions died from the disease. In the 1950s radon and its breakdown products became established as causes of lung cancer in miners. Based largely on studies of miners, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified radon as "carcinogenic to humans" in 1988. In 1956, a study revealed radon in Swedish residences. Over the following decades, high radon concentrations were found in residences across the world; by the 1980s many countries had established national radon programs to catalog and mitigate residential radon.

The first successful pneumonectomy for lung cancer was performed in 1933 by Evarts Graham at Barnes Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Over the following decades, surgical development focused on sparing as much healthy lung tissue as possible, with the lobectomy surpassing the pneumectomy in frequency by the 1960s, and the wedge resection appearing in the early 1970s. This trend continud with the development of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery in the 1980s, now widely performed for many lung cancer surgeries.

Research

While lung cancer is the deadliest type of cancer, it receives the third-most funding from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI, the world's largest cancer research funder) behind brain cancers and breast cancer. Despite high levels of gross research funding, lung cancer funding per death lags behind many other cancers, with around $3,200 spent on lung cancer research in 2022 per US death, considerably lower than that for brain cancer ($22,000 per death), breast cancer ($14,000 per death), and cancer as a whole ($11,000 per death). A similar trend holds for private nonprofit organizations. Annual revenues of lung cancer-focused nonprofits rank fifth among cancer types, but lung cancer nonprofits have lower revenue than would be expected for the number of lung cancer cases, deaths, and potential years of life lost.

Despite this, many investigational lung cancer treatments are undergoing clinical trials – with nearly 2,250 active clinical trials registered as of 2021. Of these, a large plurality are testing radiotherapy regimens (26% of trials) and surgical techniques (22%). Many others are testing targeted anticancer drugs, with targets including EGFR (17% of trials), microtubules (12%), VEGF (12%), immune pathways (10%), mTOR (1%), and histone deacetylases (<1%).

Psychrometrics

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Psychrometrics (or psychrometry, from Greek ψυχρόν (psuchron) 'cold', and μέτρον (metron) 'means of measurement, also called hygrometry) is the field of engineering concerned with the physical and thermodynamic properties of gas-vapor mixtures.

Common applications

Although the principles of psychrometry apply to any physical system consisting of gas-vapor mixtures, the most common system of interest is the mixture of water vapor and air, because of its application in heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and meteorology. In human terms, our thermal comfort is in large part a consequence of not just the temperature of the surrounding air, but (because we cool ourselves via perspiration) the extent to which that air is saturated with water vapor.

Many substances are hygroscopic, meaning they attract water, usually in proportion to the relative humidity or above a critical relative humidity. Such substances include cotton, paper, cellulose, other wood products, sugar, calcium oxide (burned lime) and many chemicals and fertilizers. Industries that use these materials are concerned with relative humidity control in production and storage of such materials. Relative humidity is often controlled in manufacturing areas where flammable materials are handled, to avoid fires caused by the static electricity discharges that can occur in very dry air.

In industrial drying applications, such as drying paper, manufacturers usually try to achieve an optimum between low relative humidity, which increases the drying rate, and energy usage, which decreases as exhaust relative humidity increases. In many industrial applications it is important to avoid condensation that would ruin product or cause corrosion.

Molds and fungi can be controlled by keeping relative humidity low. Wood destroying fungi generally do not grow at relative humidities below 75%.

Psychrometric properties

Dry-bulb temperature (DBT)

The dry-bulb temperature is the temperature indicated by a thermometer exposed to the air in a place sheltered from direct solar radiation. The term dry-bulb is customarily added to temperature to distinguish it from wet-bulb and dew point temperature. In meteorology and psychrometrics the word temperature by itself without a prefix usually means dry-bulb temperature. Technically, the temperature registered by the dry-bulb thermometer of a psychrometer. The name implies that the sensing bulb or element is in fact dry. WMO provides a 23-page chapter on the measurement of temperature.

Wet-bulb temperature (WBT)

The thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature is a thermodynamic property of a mixture of air and water vapor. The value indicated by a wet-bulb thermometer often provides an adequate approximation of the thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature.

The accuracy of a simple wet-bulb thermometer depends on how fast air passes over the bulb and how well the thermometer is shielded from the radiant temperature of its surroundings. Speeds up to 5,000 ft/min (~60 mph, 25.4 m/s) are best but it may be dangerous to move a thermometer at that speed. Errors up to 15% can occur if the air movement is too slow or if there is too much radiant heat present (from sunlight, for example).

A wet bulb temperature taken with air moving at about 1–2 m/s is referred to as a screen temperature, whereas a temperature taken with air moving about 3.5 m/s or more is referred to as sling temperature.

A psychrometer is a device that includes both a dry-bulb and a wet-bulb thermometer. A sling psychrometer requires manual operation to create the airflow over the bulbs, but a powered psychrometer includes a fan for this function. Knowing both the dry-bulb temperature (DBT) and wet-bulb temperature (WBT), one can determine the relative humidity (RH) from the psychrometric chart appropriate to the air pressure.

Dew point temperature

The saturation temperature of the moisture present in the sample of air, it can also be defined as the temperature at which the vapour changes into liquid (condensation). Usually the level at which water vapor changes into liquid marks the base of the cloud in the atmosphere hence called condensation level. So the temperature value that allows this process (condensation) to take place is called the 'dew point temperature'. A simplified definition is the temperature at which the water vapour turns into "dew" (Chamunoda Zambuko 2012).

Humidity

Specific Humidity

Specific humidity is defined as the mass of water vapor as a proportion of the mass of the moist air sample (including both dry air and the water vapor); it is closely related to humidity ratio and always lower in value.

Absolute humidity

The mass of water vapor per unit mass of dry air containing the water vapor. This quantity is also known as the water vapor density.

Relative humidity

The ratio of the vapor pressure of moisture in the sample to the saturation vapor pressure at the dry bulb temperature of the sample.

Specific enthalpy

Analogous to the specific enthalpy of a pure substance. In psychrometrics, the term quantifies the total energy of both the dry air and water vapour per kilogram of dry air.

Specific volume

Analogous to the specific volume of a pure substance. However, in psychrometrics, the term quantifies the total volume of both the dry air and water vapour per unit mass of dry air.

Psychrometric ratio

The psychrometric ratio is the ratio of the heat transfer coefficient to the product of mass transfer coefficient and humid heat at a wetted surface. It may be evaluated with the following equation:

where:
  • = Psychrometric ratio, dimensionless
  • = convective heat transfer coefficient, W m−2 K−1
  • = convective mass transfer coefficient, kg m−2 s−1
  • = humid heat, J kg−1 K−1

The psychrometric ratio is an important property in the area of psychrometry, as it relates the absolute humidity and saturation humidity to the difference between the dry bulb temperature and the adiabatic saturation temperature.

Mixtures of air and water vapor are the most common systems encountered in psychrometry. The psychrometric ratio of air-water vapor mixtures is approximately unity, which implies that the difference between the adiabatic saturation temperature and wet bulb temperature of air-water vapor mixtures is small. This property of air-water vapor systems simplifies drying and cooling calculations often performed using psychrometric relationships.

Humid heat

Humid heat is the constant-pressure specific heat of moist air, per unit mass of the dry air. The Humid Heat is the amount of Heat required to change the temperature of unit mass of a Water Vapor - Air Mixture by 1 °C.

Pressure

Many psychrometric properties are dependent on pressure concept:

Psychrometric charts

A psychrometric chart for sea-level elevation

Terminology

A psychrometric chart is a graph of the thermodynamic parameters of moist air at a constant pressure, often equated to an elevation relative to sea level. The ASHRAE-style psychrometric chart, shown here, was pioneered by Willis Carrier in 1904. It depicts these parameters and is thus a graphical equation of state. The parameters are:

  • Dry-bulb temperature (DBT) is that of an air sample, as determined by an ordinary thermometer. It is typically plotted as the abscissa (horizontal axis) of the graph. The SI units for temperature are kelvins or degrees Celsius; other units are degrees Fahrenheit and degrees Rankine.
  • Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) is that of an air sample after it has passed through a constant-pressure, ideal, adiabatic saturation process, that is, after the air has passed over a large surface of liquid water in an insulated channel. In practice this is the reading of a thermometer whose sensing bulb is covered with a wet sock evaporating into a rapid stream of the sample air (see Hygrometer). When the air sample is pre-saturated with water, the WBT will read the same as the DBT. The slope of lines of constant WBT is the ratio between the heat of vaporization of water and the specific heat of dry air, roughly 0.4.
  • Dew point temperature (DPT) is the temperature at which a moist air sample at the same pressure would reach water vapor "saturation." At this point further removal of heat would result in water vapor condensing into liquid water fog or, if below freezing point, solid hoarfrost. The dew point temperature is measured easily and provides useful information, but is normally not considered an independent property of the air sample as it duplicates information available via other humidity properties and the saturation curve.
  • Relative humidity (RH) is the ratio of the mole fraction of water vapor to the mole fraction of saturated moist air at the same temperature and pressure. RH is dimensionless, and is usually expressed as a percentage. Lines of constant RH reflect the physics of air and water: they are determined via experimental measurement. The concept that air "holds" moisture, or that moisture "dissolves" in dry air and saturates the solution at some proportion, is erroneous (albeit widespread); see relative humidity for further details.
  • Humidity ratio is the proportion of mass of water vapor per unit mass of dry air at the given conditions (DBT, WBT, DPT, RH, etc.). It is also known as the moisture content or mixing ratio. It is typically plotted as the ordinate (vertical axis) of the graph. For a given DBT there will be a particular humidity ratio for which the air sample is at 100% relative humidity: the relationship reflects the physics of water and air and must be determined by measurement. The dimensionless humidity ratio is typically expressed as grams of water per kilogram of dry air, or grains of water per pound of air (7000 grains equal 1 pound).
  • Specific enthalpy, symbolized by h, is the sum of the internal (heat) energy of the moist air in question, including the heat of the air and water vapor within. Also called heat content per unit mass. In the approximation of ideal gases, lines of constant enthalpy are parallel to lines of constant WBT. Enthalpy is given in (SI) joules per kilogram of air, or BTU per pound of dry air.
  • Specific volume is the volume of the mixture (dry air plus the water vapor) containing one unit of mass of "dry air". The SI units are cubic meters per kilogram of dry air; other units are cubic feet per pound of dry air. The inverse of specific volume is usually confused as the density of the mixture. However, to obtain the actual mixture density () one must multiply the inverse of the specific volume by unity plus the humidity ratio value at the point of interest:
where:
  • = Mass of dry air
  • = Mass of water vapor
  • = Total volume
  • = Moist air specific volume, m3 kg−1
  • = Humidity ratio

The psychrometric chart allows all the parameters of some moist air to be determined from any three independent parameters, one of which must be the pressure. Changes in state, such as when two air streams mix, can be modeled easily and somewhat graphically using the correct psychrometric chart for the location's air pressure or elevation relative to sea level. For locations at not more than 2000 ft (600 m) of altitude it is common practice to use the sea-level psychrometric chart.

In the ω-t chart, the dry bulb temperature (t) appears as the abscissa (horizontal axis) and the humidity ratio (ω) appear as the ordinate (vertical axis). A chart is valid for a given air pressure (or elevation above sea level). From any two independent ones of the six parameters dry bulb temperature, wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, humidity ratio, specific enthalpy, and specific volume, all the others can be determined. There are possible combinations of independent and derived parameters.

Locating parameters on chart

* Dry bulb temperature: These lines are drawn straight, not always parallel to each other, and slightly inclined from the vertical position. This is the t–axis, the abscissa (horizontal) axis. Each line represents a constant temperature.

* Dew point temperature: From the state point follow the horizontal line of constant humidity ratio to the intercept of 100% RH, also known as the saturation curve. The dew point temperature is equal to the fully saturated dry bulb or wet bulb temperatures.

* Wet bulb temperature: These lines are oblique lines that differ slightly from the enthalpy lines. They are identically straight but are not exactly parallel to each other. These intersect the saturation curve at DBT point.

* Relative humidity: These hyperbolic lines are shown in intervals of 10%. The saturation curve is at 100% RH, while dry air is at 0% RH.

* Humidity ratio: These are the horizontal lines on the chart. Humidity ratio is usually expressed as mass of moisture per mass of dry air (pounds or kilograms of moisture per pound or kilogram of dry air, respectively). The range is from 0 for dry air up to 0.03 (lbmw/lbma) on the right hand ω-axis, the ordinate or vertical axis of the chart.

* Specific enthalpy: These are oblique lines drawn diagonally downward from left to right across the chart that are parallel to each other. These are not parallel to wet bulb temperature lines.

* Specific volume: These are a family of equally spaced straight lines that are nearly parallel.

The region above the saturation curve is a two-phase region that represents a mixture of saturated moist air and liquid water, in thermal equilibrium.

The protractor on the upper left of the chart has two scales. The inner scale represents sensible-total heat ratio (SHF). The outer scale gives the ratio of enthalpy difference to humidity difference. This is used to establish the slope of a condition line between two processes. The horizontal component of the condition line is the change in sensible heat while the vertical component is the change in latent heat. 

How to read the chart: fundamental examples

Psychrometric charts are available in SI (metric) and IP (U.S./Imperial) units. They are also available in low and high temperature ranges and for different pressures.

  • Determining relative humidity: The percent relative humidity can be located at the intersection of the vertical dry bulb and diagonally down sloping wet bulb temperature lines. Metric (SI): Using a dry bulb of 25 °C and a wet bulb of 20 °C, read the relative humidity at approximately 63.5%. U.S/Imperial (IP): Using a dry bulb of 77 °F and a wet bulb of 68 °F, read the relative humidity at approximately 63.5%. In this example the humidity ratio is 0.0126 kg water per kg dry air.
  • Determining the effect of temperature change on relative humidity: For air of a fixed water composition or moisture ratio, find the starting relative humidity from the intersection of the wet and dry bulb temperature lines. Using the conditions from the previous example, the relative humidity at a different dry bulb temperatures can be found along the horizontal humidity ratio line of 0.0126, either in kg water per kg dry air or pounds water per pound dry air.
A common variation of this problem is determining the final humidity of air leaving an air conditioner evaporator coil then heated to a higher temperature. Assume that the temperature leaving the coil is 10°C (50°F) and is heated to room temperature (not mixed with room air), which is found by following the horizontal humidity ratio from the dew point or saturation line to the room dry bulb temperature line and reading the relative humidity. In typical practice the conditioned air is mixed with room air that is being infiltrated with outside air.
  • Determining the amount of water to be removed or added in lowering or raising relative humidity: This is the difference in humidity ratio between the initial and final conditions times the weight of dry air.
Mollier Diagram (Chart), IP Units

Mollier diagram

The "Mollier i-x" (Enthalpy - Humidity Mixing Ratio) diagram, developed by Richard Mollier in 1923, is an alternative psychrometric chart, preferred by many users in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and Russia.

The underlying psychrometric parameter data for the psychrometric chart and the Mollier diagram are identical. At first glance there is little resemblance between the charts, but if the chart is rotated by ninety degrees and looked at in a mirror the resemblance becomes apparent. The Mollier diagram coordinates are enthalpy and humidity ratio. The enthalpy coordinate is skewed and the lines of constant enthalpy are parallel and evenly spaced. The ASHRAE psychrometric charts since 1961 use similar plotting coordinates. Some psychrometric charts use dry-bulb temperature and humidity ratio coordinates.

Variable renewable energy

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_renewable_energy
The 150 MW Andasol solar power station is a commercial parabolic trough solar thermal power plant, in Spain. The Andasol plant uses tanks of molten salt to store solar energy so that it can continue generating electricity even after sunset.
Grids with high penetration of renewable energy sources generally need more flexible generation rather than baseload generation

Variable renewable energy (VRE) or intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) are renewable energy sources that are not dispatchable due to their fluctuating nature, such as wind power and solar power, as opposed to controllable renewable energy sources, such as dammed hydroelectricity or biomass, or relatively constant sources, such as geothermal power.

The use of small amounts of intermittent power has little effect on grid operations. Using larger amounts of intermittent power may require upgrades or even a redesign of the grid infrastructure. Options to absorb large shares of variable energy into the grid include using storage, improved interconnection between different variable sources to smooth out supply, using dispatchable energy sources such as hydroelectricity and having overcapacity, so that sufficient energy is produced even when weather is less favourable. More connections between the energy sector and the building, transport and industrial sectors may also help.

Background and terminology

The penetration of intermittent renewables in most power grids is low: global electricity generation in 2021 was 7% wind and 4% solar. However, in 2021 Denmark, Luxembourg and Uruguay generated over 40% of their electricity from wind and solar. Characteristics of variable renewables include their unpredictability, variability, and low running costs. These provide a challenge to grid operators, who must make sure supply and demand are matched. Solutions include energy storage, demand response, availability of overcapacity and sector coupling. Smaller isolated grids may be less tolerant to high levels of penetration.

Matching power demand to supply is not a problem specific to intermittent power sources. Existing power grids already contain elements of uncertainty including sudden and large changes in demand and unforeseen power plant failures. Though power grids are already designed to have some capacity in excess of projected peak demand to deal with these problems, significant upgrades may be required to accommodate large amounts of intermittent power.

Several key terms are useful for understanding the issue of intermittent power sources. These terms are not standardized, and variations may be used. Most of these terms also apply to traditional power plants.

  • Intermittency or variability is the extent to which a power source fluctuates. This has two aspects: a predictable variability (such as the day-night cycle) and an unpredictable part (imperfect local weather forecasting). The term intermittent can be used to refer to the unpredictable part, with variable then referring to the predictable part.
  • Dispatchability is the ability of a given power source to increase and decrease output quickly on demand. The concept is distinct from intermittency; dispatchability is one of several ways system operators match supply (generator's output) to system demand (technical loads).
  • Penetration is the amount of electricity generated as a percentage of annual consumption.
  • Nominal power or nameplate capacity is the maximum output of a generating plant in normal operating conditions. This is the most common number used and is typically expressed in watts (including multiples like kW, MW, GW).
  • Capacity factor, average capacity factor, or load factor is the average expected output of a generator, usually over an annual period. It is expressed as a percentage of the nameplate capacity or in decimal form (e.g. 30% or 0.30).
  • Firm capacity or firm power is "guaranteed by the supplier to be available at all times during a period covered by a commitment".
  • Capacity credit: the amount of conventional (dispatchable) generation power that can be potentially removed from the system while keeping the reliability, usually expressed as a percentage of the nominal power.
  • Foreseeability or predictability is how accurately the operator can anticipate the generation: for example tidal power varies with the tides but is completely foreseeable because the orbit of the moon can be predicted exactly, and improved weather forecasts can make wind power more predictable.

Sources

Dammed hydroelectricity, biomass and geothermal are dispatchable as each has a store of potential energy; wind and solar without storage can be decreased, but not dispatched, other than when nature provides. Between wind and solar, solar has a more variable daily cycle than wind, but is more predictable in daylight hours than wind. Like solar, tidal energy varies between on and off cycles through each day, unlike solar there is no intermittency, tides are available every day without fail.

Wind power

Day ahead prediction and actual wind power

Grid operators use day ahead forecasting to determine which of the available power sources to use the next day, and weather forecasting is used to predict the likely wind power and solar power output available. Although wind power forecasts have been used operationally for decades, as of 2019 the IEA is organizing international collaboration to further improve their accuracy.

Erie Shores Wind Farm monthly output over a two-year period
A wind farm in Muppandal, Tamil Nadu, India

Wind-generated power is a variable resource, and the amount of electricity produced at any given point in time by a given plant will depend on wind speeds, air density, and turbine characteristics (among other factors). If wind speed is too low then the wind turbines will not be able to make electricity, and if it is too high the turbines will have to be shut down to avoid damage. While the output from a single turbine can vary greatly and rapidly as local wind speeds vary, as more turbines are connected over larger and larger areas the average power output becomes less variable.

  • Intermittence: Regions smaller than synoptic scale (less than about 1000 km long, the size of an average country) have mostly the same weather and thus around the same wind power, unless local conditions favor special winds. Some studies show that wind farms spread over a geographically diverse area will as a whole rarely stop producing power altogether. However this is rarely the case for smaller areas with uniform geography such as Ireland, Scotland, and Denmark which have several days per year with little wind power.
  • Capacity factor: Wind power typically has an annual capacity factor of 25–50%, with offshore wind outperforming onshore wind.
  • Dispatchability: Because wind power is not by itself dispatchable wind farms are sometimes built with storage.
  • Capacity credit: At low levels of penetration, the capacity credit of wind is about the same as the capacity factor. As the concentration of wind power on the grid rises, the capacity credit percentage drops.
  • Variability: Site dependent. Sea breezes are much more constant than land breezes. Seasonal variability may reduce output by 50%.
  • Reliability: A wind farm has high technical reliability when the wind blows. That is, the output at any given time will only vary gradually due to falling wind speeds or storms (the latter necessitating shut downs). A typical wind farm is unlikely to have to shut down in less than half an hour at the extreme, whereas an equivalent-sized power station can fail totally instantaneously and without warning. The total shutdown of wind turbines is predictable via weather forecasting. The average availability of a wind turbine is 98%, and when a turbine fails or is shut down for maintenance it only affects a small percentage of the output of a large wind farm.
  • Predictability: Although wind is variable, it is also predictable in the short term. There is an 80% chance that wind output will change less than 10% in an hour and a 40% chance that it will change 10% or more in 5 hours.

Because wind power is generated by large numbers of small generators, individual failures do not have large impacts on power grids. This feature of wind has been referred to as resiliency.

Solar power

Daily solar output at AT&T Park in San Francisco
Seasonal variation of the output of the solar panels at AT&T park in San Francisco

Intermittency inherently affects solar energy, as the production of renewable electricity from solar sources depends on the amount of sunlight at a given place and time. Solar output varies throughout the day and through the seasons, and is affected by dust, fog, cloud cover, frost or snow. Many of the seasonal factors are fairly predictable, and some solar thermal systems make use of heat storage to produce grid power for a full day.

  • Variability: In the absence of an energy storage system, solar does not produce power at night, little in bad weather and varies between seasons. In many countries, solar produces most energy in seasons with low wind availability and vice versa.
  • Capacity factor Standard photovoltaic solar has an annual average capacity factor of 10-20%, but panels that move and track the sun have a capacity factor up to 30%. Thermal solar parabolic trough with storage 56%. Thermal solar power tower with storage 73%.
Dish Stirling

The impact of intermittency of solar-generated electricity will depend on the correlation of generation with demand. For example, solar thermal power plants such as Nevada Solar One are somewhat matched to summer peak loads in areas with significant cooling demands, such as the south-western United States. Thermal energy storage systems like the small Spanish Gemasolar Thermosolar Plant can improve the match between solar supply and local consumption. The improved capacity factor using thermal storage represents a decrease in maximum capacity, and extends the total time the system generates power.

Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity

In many countries new large dams are no longer being built, because of the environmental impact of reservoirs. Run of the river projects have continued to be built. The absence of a reservoir results in both seasonal and annual variations in electricity generated.

Tidal power

Types of tide

Tidal power is the most predictable of all the variable renewable energy sources. The tides reverse twice a day, but they are never intermittent, on the contrary they are completely reliable. Only 20 sites in the world have yet been identified as possible tidal power stations.

Wave power

Waves are primarily created by wind, so the power available from waves tends to follow that available from wind, but due to the mass of the water is less variable than wind power. Wind power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, while wave power is proportional to the square of the wave height.

Solutions for their integration

The displaced dispatchable generation could be coal, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, geothermal or storage hydro. Rather than starting and stopping nuclear or geothermal it is cheaper to use them as constant base load power. Any power generated in excess of demand can displace heating fuels, be converted to storage or sold to another grid. Biofuels and conventional hydro can be saved for later when intermittents are not generating power. Some forecast that “near-firm” renewables (batteries with solar and/or wind) power will be cheaper than existing nuclear by the late 2020s: therefore they say base load power will not be needed. Alternatives to burning coal and natural gas which produce fewer greenhouse gases may eventually make fossil fuels a stranded asset that is left in the ground. Highly integrated grids favor flexibility and performance over cost, resulting in more plants that operate for fewer hours and lower capacity factors.

All sources of electrical power have some degree of variability, as do demand patterns which routinely drive large swings in the amount of electricity that suppliers feed into the grid. Wherever possible, grid operations procedure are designed to match supply with demand at high levels of reliability, and the tools to influence supply and demand are well-developed. The introduction of large amounts of highly variable power generation may require changes to existing procedures and additional investments.

The capacity of a reliable renewable power supply, can be fulfilled by the use of backup or extra infrastructure and technology, using mixed renewables to produce electricity above the intermittent average, which may be used to meet regular and unanticipated supply demands. Additionally, the storage of energy to fill the shortfall intermittency or for emergencies can be part of a reliable power supply.

In practice, as the power output from wind varies, partially loaded conventional plants, which are already present to provide response and reserve, adjust their output to compensate. While low penetrations of intermittent power may use existing levels of response and spinning reserve, the larger overall variations at higher penetrations levels will require additional reserves or other means of compensation.

Operational reserve

All managed grids already have existing operational and "spinning" reserve to compensate for existing uncertainties in the power grid. The addition of intermittent resources such as wind does not require 100% "back-up" because operating reserves and balancing requirements are calculated on a system-wide basis, and not dedicated to a specific generating plant.

Some gas, or hydro power plants are partially loaded and then controlled to change as demand changes or to replace rapidly lost generation. The ability to change as demand changes is termed "response". The ability to quickly replace lost generation, typically within timescales of 30 seconds to 30 minutes, is termed "spinning reserve".

Generally thermal plants running as peaking plants will be less efficient than if they were running as base load. Hydroelectric facilities with storage capacity (such as the traditional dam configuration) may be operated as base load or peaking plants.

Grids can contract for grid battery plants, which provide immediately available power for an hour or so, which gives time for other generators to be started up in the event of a failure, and greatly reduces the amount of spinning reserve required.

Demand response

Demand response is a change in consumption of energy to better align with supply. It can take the form of switching off loads, or absorb additional energy to correct supply/demand imbalances. Incentives have been widely created in the American, British and French systems for the use of these systems, such as favorable rates or capital cost assistance, encouraging consumers with large loads to take them offline whenever there is a shortage of capacity, or conversely to increase load when there is a surplus.

Certain types of load control allow the power company to turn loads off remotely if insufficient power is available. In France large users such as CERN cut power usage as required by the System Operator - EDF under the encouragement of the EJP tariff.

Energy demand management refers to incentives to adjust use of electricity, such as higher rates during peak hours. Real-time variable electricity pricing can encourage users to adjust usage to take advantage of periods when power is cheaply available and avoid periods when it is more scarce and expensive. Some loads such as desalination plants, electric boilers and industrial refrigeration units, are able to store their output (water and heat). Several papers also concluded that Bitcoin mining loads would reduce curtailment, hedge electricity price risk, stabilize the grid, increase the profitability of renewable energy power stations and therefore accelerate transition to sustainable energy. But others argue that Bitcoin mining can never be sustainable.

Instantaneous demand reduction. Most large systems also have a category of loads which instantly disconnect when there is a generation shortage, under some mutually beneficial contract. This can give instant load reductions (or increases).

Storage

Construction of the Salt Tanks which provide efficient thermal energy storage so that output can be provided after the sun goes down, and output can be scheduled to meet demand requirements. The 280 MW Solana Generating Station is designed to provide six hours of energy storage. This allows the plant to generate about 38 percent of its rated capacity over the course of a year.
Learning curve of lithium-ion batteries: the price of batteries declined by 97% in three decades.

At times of low load where non-dispatchable output from wind and solar may be high, grid stability requires lowering the output of various dispatchable generating sources or even increasing controllable loads, possibly by using energy storage to time-shift output to times of higher demand. Such mechanisms can include:

Pumped storage hydropower is the most prevalent existing technology used, and can substantially improve the economics of wind power. The availability of hydropower sites suitable for storage will vary from grid to grid. Typical round trip efficiency is 80%.

Traditional lithium-ion is the most common type used for grid-scale battery storage as of 2020. Rechargeable flow batteries can serve as a large capacity, rapid-response storage medium. Hydrogen can be created through electrolysis and stored for later use.

Flywheel energy storage systems have some advantages over chemical batteries. Along with substantial durability which allows them to be cycled frequently without noticeable life reduction, they also have very fast response and ramp rates. They can go from full discharge to full charge within a few seconds. They can be manufactured using non-toxic and environmentally friendly materials, easily recyclable once the service life is over.

Thermal energy storage stores heat. Stored heat can be used directly for heating needs or converted into electricity. In the context of a CHP plant a heat storage can serve as a functional electricity storage at comparably low costs. Ice storage air conditioning Ice can be stored inter seasonally and can be used as a source of air-conditioning during periods of high demand. Present systems only need to store ice for a few hours but are well developed.

Storage of electrical energy results in some lost energy because storage and retrieval are not perfectly efficient. Storage also requires capital investment and space for storage facilities.

Geographic diversity and complementing technologies

Five days of hourly output of five wind farms in Ontario

The variability of production from a single wind turbine can be high. Combining any additional number of turbines (for example, in a wind farm) results in lower statistical variation, as long as the correlation between the output of each turbine is imperfect, and the correlations are always imperfect due to the distance between each turbine. Similarly, geographically distant wind turbines or wind farms have lower correlations, reducing overall variability. Since wind power is dependent on weather systems, there is a limit to the benefit of this geographic diversity for any power system.

Multiple wind farms spread over a wide geographic area and gridded together produce power more constantly and with less variability than smaller installations. Wind output can be predicted with some degree of confidence using weather forecasts, especially from large numbers of turbines/farms. The ability to predict wind output is expected to increase over time as data is collected, especially from newer facilities.

Electricity produced from solar energy tends to counterbalance the fluctuating supplies generated from wind. Normally it is windiest at night and during cloudy or stormy weather, and there is more sunshine on clear days with less wind. Besides, wind energy has often a peak in the winter season, whereas solar energy has a peak in the summer season; the combination of wind and solar reduces the need for dispatchable backup power.

  • In some locations, electricity demand may have a high correlation with wind output, particularly in locations where cold temperatures drive electric consumption (as cold air is denser and carries more energy).
  • The allowable penetration may be increased with further investment in standby generation. For instance some days could produce 80% intermittent wind and on the many windless days substitute 80% dispatchable power like natural gas, biomass and Hydro.
  • Areas with existing high levels of hydroelectric generation may ramp up or down to incorporate substantial amounts of wind. Norway, Brazil, and Manitoba all have high levels of hydroelectric generation, Quebec produces over 90% of its electricity from hydropower, and Hydro-Québec is the largest hydropower producer in the world. The U.S. Pacific Northwest has been identified as another region where wind energy is complemented well by existing hydropower. Storage capacity in hydropower facilities will be limited by size of reservoir, and environmental and other considerations.

Connecting grid internationally

It is often feasible to export energy to neighboring grids at times of surplus, and import energy when needed. This practice is common in Europe and between the US and Canada. Integration with other grids can lower the effective concentration of variable power: for instance, Denmark's high penetration of VRE, in the context of the German/Dutch/Scandinavian grids with which it has interconnections, is considerably lower as a proportion of the total system. Hydroelectricity that compensates for variability can be used across countries.

The capacity of power transmission infrastructure may have to be substantially upgraded to support export/import plans. Some energy is lost in transmission. The economic value of exporting variable power depends in part on the ability of the exporting grid to provide the importing grid with useful power at useful times for an attractive price.

Sector coupling

Demand and generation can be better matched when sectors such as mobility, heat and gas are coupled with the power system. The electric vehicle market is for instance expected to become the largest source of storage capacity. This may be a more expensive option appropriate for high penetration of variable renewables, compared to other sources of flexibility. The International Energy Agency says that sector coupling is needed to compensate for the mismatch between seasonal demand and supply.

Electric vehicles can be charged during periods of low demand and high production, and in some places send power back from the vehicle-to-grid.

Penetration

Penetration refers to the proportion of a primary energy (PE) source in an electric power system, expressed as a percentage. There are several methods of calculation yielding different penetrations. The penetration can be calculated either as:

  1. the nominal capacity (installed power) of a PE source divided by the peak load within an electric power system; or
  2. the nominal capacity (installed power) of a PE source divided by the total capacity of the electric power system; or
  3. the electrical energy generated by a PE source in a given period, divided by the demand of the electric power system in this period.

The level of penetration of intermittent variable sources is significant for the following reasons:

  • Power grids with significant amounts of dispatchable pumped storage, hydropower with reservoir or pondage or other peaking power plants such as natural gas-fired power plants are capable of accommodating fluctuations from intermittent power more easily.
  • Relatively small electric power systems without strong interconnection (such as remote islands) may retain some existing diesel generators but consuming less fuel, for flexibility until cleaner energy sources or storage such as pumped hydro or batteries become cost-effective.

In the early 2020s wind and solar produce 10% of the world's electricity, but supply in the 40-55% penetration range has already been implemented in several systems, with over 65% planned for the UK by 2030.

There is no generally accepted maximum level of penetration, as each system's capacity to compensate for intermittency differs, and the systems themselves will change over time. Discussion of acceptable or unacceptable penetration figures should be treated and used with caution, as the relevance or significance will be highly dependent on local factors, grid structure and management, and existing generation capacity.

For most systems worldwide, existing penetration levels are significantly lower than practical or theoretical maximums.

Maximum penetration limits

Maximum penetration of combined wind and solar is estimated at around 70% to 90% without regional aggregation, demand management or storage; and up to 94% with 12 hours of storage. Economic efficiency and cost considerations are more likely to dominate as critical factors; technical solutions may allow higher penetration levels to be considered in future, particularly if cost considerations are secondary.

Economic impacts of variability

Estimates of the cost of wind and solar energy may include estimates of the "external" costs of wind and solar variability, or be limited to the cost of production. All electrical plant has costs that are separate from the cost of production, including, for example, the cost of any necessary transmission capacity or reserve capacity in case of loss of generating capacity. Many types of generation, particularly fossil fuel derived, will also have cost externalities such as pollution, greenhouse gas emission, and habitat destruction which are generally not directly accounted for. The magnitude of the economic impacts is debated and will vary by location, but is expected to rise with higher penetration levels. At low penetration levels, costs such as operating reserve and balancing costs are believed to be insignificant.

Intermittency may introduce additional costs that are distinct from or of a different magnitude than for traditional generation types. These may include:

  • Transmission capacity: transmission capacity may be more expensive than for nuclear and coal generating capacity due to lower load factors. Transmission capacity will generally be sized to projected peak output, but average capacity for wind will be significantly lower, raising cost per unit of energy actually transmitted. However transmission costs are a low fraction of total energy costs.
  • Additional operating reserve: if additional wind and solar does not correspond to demand patterns, additional operating reserve may be required compared to other generating types, however this does not result in higher capital costs for additional plants since this is merely existing plants running at low output - spinning reserve. Contrary to statements that all wind must be backed by an equal amount of "back-up capacity", intermittent generators contribute to base capacity "as long as there is some probability of output during peak periods". Back-up capacity is not attributed to individual generators, as back-up or operating reserve "only have meaning at the system level".
  • Balancing costs: to maintain grid stability, some additional costs may be incurred for balancing of load with demand. Although improvements to grid balancing can be costly, they can lead to long term savings.

In many countries for many types of variable renewable energy, from time to time the government invites companies to tender sealed bids to construct a certain capacity of solar power to connect to certain electricity substations. By accepting the lowest bid the government commits to buy at that price per kWh for a fixed number of years, or up to a certain total amount of power. This provides certainty for investors against highly volatile wholesale electricity prices. However they may still risk exchange rate volatility if they borrowed in foreign currency.

Examples by country

Great Britain

The operator of the British electricity system has said that it will be capable of operating zero-carbon by 2025, whenever there is enough renewable generation, and may be carbon negative by 2033. The company, National Grid Electricity System Operator, states that new products and services will help reduce the overall cost of operating the system.

Germany

In countries with a considerable amount of renewable energy, solar energy causes price drops around noon every day. PV production follows the higher demand during these hours. The images below show two weeks in 2022 in Germany, where renewable energy has a share of over 40%. Prices also drop every night and weekend due to low demand. In hours without PV and wind power, electricity prices rise. This can lead to demand side adjustments. While industry is dependent on the hourly prices, most private households still pay a fixed tariff. With smart meters, private consomers can also be motivated i.e. to load an electric car when enough renewable energy is available and prices are cheap.

Steerable flexibility in electricity production is essential to back up variable energy sources. The German example shows that pumped hydro storage, gas plants and hard coal jump in fast. Lignite varies on a daily basis. Nuclear power and biomass can theoretically adjust to a certain extent. However, in this case incentives still seem not be high enough.

Renewable and conventional energy production in Germany over two weeks in 2022. In hours with low wind and PV production, hard coal and gas fill the gap. Nuclear and biomass show almost no flexibility. PV follows the increased consumption during daytime hours but varies seasonally.
 
Electricity market in Germany over two weeks in 2022. With the integration of solar PV, prices drop around noon every day in spite of a higher demand. Prices also drop every night and weekend due to low demand. A high availability of wind power causes the low prices on the right half. In hours without PV and wind power, the most expensive substitute set the price. The extreme levels for natural gas in 2022 were caused by Russian's invasion in Ukraine. The low availability of French nuclear power during these months increased the demand for exports.

Inequality (mathematics)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inequality...