Supercontinent

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercontinent 

The supercontinent of Pangaea with the positions of the continents at the Permian-Triassic boundary, about 250 Ma. AR=Amuria; NC=North China; SC=South China; PA=Panthalassic Ocean; PT=Paleotethys Ocean; NT=Neotethys Ocean. Orogens shown in red. Subduction zones shown in black. Spreading centers shown in green.

Although not a supercontinent, the current Afro-Eurasian landmass contains about 57% of Earth's land area.

In geology, a supercontinent is the assembly of most or all of Earth's continental blocks or cratons to form a single large landmass. However, some geologists use a different definition, "a grouping of formerly dispersed continents", which leaves room for interpretation and is easier to apply to Precambrian times. To separate supercontinents from other groupings, a limit has been proposed in which a continent must include at least about 75% of the continental crust then in existence in order to qualify as a supercontinent.

Moving under the forces of plate tectonics, supercontinents have assembled and dispersed multiple times in the geologic past. According to modern definitions, a supercontinent does not exist today; the closest is the current Afro-Eurasian landmass, which covers approximately 57% of Earth's total land area. The last period in which the continental landmasses were near to one another was 336 to 175 million years ago, forming the supercontinent Pangaea. The positions of continents have been accurately determined back to the early Jurassic, shortly before the breakup of Pangaea. Pangaea's predecessor Gondwana is not considered a supercontinent under the first definition since the landmasses of Baltica, Laurentia and Siberia were separate at the time.

A future supercontinent, termed Pangaea Proxima, is hypothesized to form within the next 250 million years.

Theories

The Phanerozoic supercontinent Pangaea began to break up 215 Ma and this distancing continues today. Because Pangaea is the most recent of Earth's supercontinents, it is the best known and understood. Contributing to Pangaea's popularity in the classroom, its reconstruction is almost as simple as fitting together the present continents bordering the Atlantic ocean like puzzle pieces.

For the period before Pangaea, there are two contrasting models for supercontinent evolution through geological time.

Series

The first model theorizes that at least two separate supercontinents existed comprising Vaalbara and Kenorland, with Kenorland comprising Superia and Sclavia. These parts of Neoarchean age broke off at ~2480 and 2312 Ma, and portions of them later collided to form Nuna (Northern Europe and North America). Nuna continued to develop during the Mesoproterozoic, primarily by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs, and in ~1000 Ma Nuna collided with other land masses, forming Rodinia. Between ~825 and 750 Ma Rodinia broke apart. However, before completely breaking up, some fragments of Rodinia had already come together to form Gondwana by ~608 Ma. Pangaea formed through the collision of Gondwana, Laurasia (Laurentia and Baltica), and Siberia.

Protopangea–Paleopangea

The second model (Kenorland-Arctica) is based on both palaeomagnetic and geological evidence and proposes that the continental crust comprised a single supercontinent from ~2.72 Ga until break-up during the Ediacaran period after ~0.573 Ga. The reconstruction is derived from the observation that palaeomagnetic poles converge to quasi-static positions for long intervals between ~2.72–2.115 Ga; 1.35–1.13 Ga; and 0.75–0.573 Ga with only small peripheral modifications to the reconstruction. During the intervening periods, the poles conform to a unified apparent polar wander path.

Although it contrasts the first model, the first phase (Protopangea) essentially incorporates Vaalbara and Kenorland of the first model. The explanation for the prolonged duration of the Protopangea–Paleopangea supercontinent appears to be that lid tectonics (comparable to the tectonics operating on Mars and Venus) prevailed during Precambrian times. According to this theory, plate tectonics as seen on the contemporary Earth became dominant only during the latter part of geological times. This approach was widely criticized by many researchers as it uses incorrect application of paleomagnetic data.

Cycles

A supercontinent cycle is the break-up of one supercontinent and the development of another, which takes place on a global scale. Supercontinent cycles are not the same as the Wilson cycle, which is the opening and closing of an individual oceanic basin. The Wilson cycle rarely synchronizes with the timing of a supercontinent cycle. However, supercontinent cycles and Wilson cycles were both involved in the creation of Pangaea and Rodinia.

Secular trends such as carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone belt deformation events are all possible indicators of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity, although the Protopangea–Paleopangea solution implies that Phanerozoic style of supercontinent cycles did not operate during these times. Also, there are instances where these secular trends have a weak, uneven, or absent imprint on the supercontinent cycle; secular methods for supercontinent reconstruction will produce results that have only one explanation, and each explanation for a trend must fit in with the rest.

The following table names reconstructed ancient supercontinents, using Bradley's 2011 looser definition, with an approximate timescale of millions of years ago (Ma).

Supercontinent name	Age (Ma)	Period/Era Range	Comment
Vaalbara	3,636–2,803	Eoarchean-Mesoarchean	Also described as a supercraton or just a continent
Ur	2,803–2,408	Mesoarchean-Siderian	Described as both a continent and a supercontinent
Kenorland	2,720–2,114	Neoarchean-Rhyacian	Alternatively the continents may have formed into two groupings Superia and Sclavia
Arctica	2,114–1,995	Rhyacian-Orosirian	Not generally regarded as a supercontinent, depending on definition
Atlantica	1,991–1,124	Orosirian-Stenian	Not generally regarded as a supercontinent, depending on definition
Columbia (Nuna)	1,820–1,350	Orosirian-Ectasian
Rodinia	1,130–750	Stenian-Tonian
Pannotia	633–573	Ediacaran
Gondwana	550–175	Ediacaran-Jurassic	From the Carboniferous, formed part of Pangaea, not always regarded as a supercontinent
Pangaea	336–175	Carboniferous-Jurassic

Volcanism

The causes of supercontinent assembly and dispersal are thought to be driven by convection processes in Earth's mantle. Approximately 660 km into the mantle, a discontinuity occurs, affecting the surface crust through processes involving plumes and superplumes (aka large low-shear-velocity provinces). When a slab of the subducted crust is denser than the surrounding mantle, it sinks to discontinuity. Once the slabs build up, they will sink through to the lower mantle in what is known as a "slab avalanche". This displacement at the discontinuity will cause the lower mantle to compensate and rise elsewhere. The rising mantle can form a plume or superplume.

Besides having compositional effects on the upper mantle by replenishing the large-ion lithophile elements, volcanism affects plate movement. The plates will be moved towards a geoidal low perhaps where the slab avalanche occurred and pushed away from the geoidal high that can be caused by the plumes or superplumes. This causes the continents to push together to form supercontinents and was evidently the process that operated to cause the early continental crust to aggregate into Protopangea.

Dispersal of supercontinents is caused by the accumulation of heat underneath the crust due to the rising of very large convection cells or plumes, and a massive heat release resulted in the final break-up of Paleopangea. Accretion occurs over geoidal lows that can be caused by avalanche slabs or the downgoing limbs of convection cells. Evidence of the accretion and dispersion of supercontinents is seen in the geological rock record.

The influence of known volcanic eruptions does not compare to that of flood basalts. The timing of flood basalts has corresponded with a large-scale continental break-up. However, due to a lack of data on the time required to produce flood basalts, the climatic impact is difficult to quantify. The timing of a single lava flow is also undetermined. These are important factors on how flood basalts influenced paleoclimate.

Plate tectonics

Global palaeogeography and plate interactions as far back as Pangaea are relatively well understood today. However, the evidence becomes more sparse further back in geologic history. Marine magnetic anomalies, passive margin match-ups, geologic interpretation of orogenic belts, paleomagnetism, paleobiogeography of fossils, and distribution of climatically sensitive strata are all methods to obtain evidence for continent locality and indicators of the environment throughout time.

Phanerozoic (541 Ma to present) and Precambrian (4.6 Ga to 541 Ma) had primarily passive margins and detrital zircons (and orogenic granites), whereas the tenure of Pangaea contained few. Matching edges of continents are where passive margins form. The edges of these continents may rift. At this point, seafloor spreading becomes the driving force. Passive margins are therefore born during the break-up of supercontinents and die during supercontinent assembly. Pangaea's supercontinent cycle is a good example of the efficiency of using the presence or lack of these entities to record the development, tenure, and break-up of supercontinents. There is a sharp decrease in passive margins between 500 and 350 Ma during the timing of Pangaea's assembly. The tenure of Pangaea is marked by a low number of passive margins during 336 to 275 Ma, and its break-up is indicated accurately by an increase in passive margins.

Orogenic belts can form during the assembly of continents and supercontinents. The orogenic belts present on continental blocks are classified into three different categories and have implications for interpreting geologic bodies. Intercratonic orogenic belts are characteristic of ocean basin closure. Clear indicators of intracratonic activity contain ophiolites and other oceanic materials that are present in the suture zone. Intracratonic orogenic belts occur as thrust belts and do not contain any oceanic material. However, the absence of ophiolites is not strong evidence for intracratonic belts, because the oceanic material can be squeezed out and eroded away in an intracratonic environment. The third kind of orogenic belt is a confined orogenic belt which is the closure of small basins. The assembly of a supercontinent would have to show intracratonic orogenic belts. However, interpretation of orogenic belts can be difficult.

The collision of Gondwana and Laurasia occurred in the late Palaeozoic. By this collision, the Variscan mountain range was created, along the equator. This 6000-km-long mountain range is usually referred to in two parts: the Hercynian mountain range of the late Carboniferous makes up the eastern part, and the western part is the Appalachian Mountains, uplifted in the early Permian. (The existence of a flat elevated plateau like the Tibetan Plateau is under debate.) The locality of the Variscan range made it influential to both the northern and southern hemispheres. The elevation of the Appalachians would greatly influence global atmospheric circulation.

Climate

Continents affect the climate of the planet drastically, with supercontinents having a larger, more prevalent influence. Continents modify global wind patterns, control ocean current paths, and have a higher albedo than the oceans. Winds are redirected by mountains, and albedo differences cause shifts in onshore winds. Higher elevation in continental interiors produces a cooler, drier climate, the phenomenon of continentality. This is seen today in Eurasia, and rock record shows evidence of continentality in the middle of Pangaea.

Glacial

The term glacial-epoch refers to a long episode of glaciation on Earth over millions of years. Glaciers have major implications on the climate, particularly through sea level change. Changes in the position and elevation of the continents, the paleolatitude and ocean circulation affect the glacial epochs. There is an association between the rifting and breakup of continents and supercontinents and glacial epochs.^[19] According to the model for Precambrian supercontinent series, the breakup of Kenorland and Rodinia was associated with the Paleoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic glacial epochs, respectively.

In contrast, the Protopangea–Paleopangea theory shows that these glaciations correlated with periods of low continental velocity, and it is concluded that a fall in tectonic and corresponding volcanic activity was responsible for these intervals of global frigidity. During the accumulation of supercontinents with times of regional uplift, glacial epochs seem to be rare with little supporting evidence. However, the lack of evidence does not allow for the conclusion that glacial epochs are not associated with the collisional assembly of supercontinents. This could just represent a preservation bias.

During the late Ordovician (~458.4 Ma), the particular configuration of Gondwana may have allowed for glaciation and high CO₂ levels to occur at the same time. However, some geologists disagree and think that there was a temperature increase at this time. This increase may have been strongly influenced by the movement of Gondwana across the South Pole, which may have prevented lengthy snow accumulation. Although late Ordovician temperatures at the South Pole may have reached freezing, there were no ice sheets during the early Silurian (~443.8 Ma) through the late Mississippian (~330.9 Ma). Agreement can be met with the theory that continental snow can occur when the edge of a continent is near the pole. Therefore Gondwana, although located tangent to the South Pole, may have experienced glaciation along its coasts.

Precipitation

Though precipitation rates during monsoonal circulations are difficult to predict, there is evidence for a large orographic barrier within the interior of Pangaea during the late Paleozoic (~251.9 Ma). The possibility of the southwest–northeast trending Appalachian-Hercynian Mountains makes the region's monsoonal circulations potentially relatable to present-day monsoonal circulations surrounding the Tibetan Plateau, which is known to positively influence the magnitude of monsoonal periods within Eurasia. It is therefore somewhat expected that lower topography in other regions of the supercontinent during the Jurassic would negatively influence precipitation variations. The breakup of supercontinents may have affected local precipitation. When any supercontinent breaks up, there will be an increase in precipitation runoff over the surface of the continental landmasses, increasing silicate weathering and the consumption of CO₂.

Temperature

Even though during the Archaean solar radiation was reduced by 30 percent and the Cambrian-Precambrian boundary by 6 percent, the Earth has only experienced three ice ages throughout the Precambrian. Erroneous conclusions are more likely to be made when models are limited to one climatic configuration (which is usually present-day).

Cold winters in continental interiors are due to rate ratios of radiative cooling (greater) and heat transport from continental rims. To raise winter temperatures within continental interiors, the rate of heat transport must increase to become greater than the rate of radiative cooling. Through climate models, alterations in atmospheric CO₂ content and ocean heat transport are not comparatively effective.

CO₂ models suggest that values were low in the late Cenozoic and Carboniferous-Permian glaciations. Although early Paleozoic values are much larger (more than 10 percent higher than that of today). This may be due to high seafloor spreading rates after the breakup of Precambrian supercontinents and the lack of land plants as a carbon sink.

During the late Permian, it is expected that seasonal Pangaean temperatures varied drastically. Subtropic summer temperatures were warmer than that of today by as much as 6–10 degrees, and mid-latitudes in the winter were less than −30 degrees Celsius. These seasonal changes within the supercontinent were influenced by the large size of Pangaea. And, just like today, coastal regions experienced much less variation.

During the Jurassic, summer temperatures did not rise above zero degrees Celsius along the northern rim of Laurasia, which was the northernmost part of Pangaea (the southernmost portion of Pangaea was Gondwana). Ice-rafted dropstones sourced from Russia are indicators of this northern boundary. The Jurassic is thought to have been approximately 10 degrees Celsius warmer along 90 degrees East paleolongitude compared to the present temperature of today's central Eurasia.

Milankovitch cycles

Many studies of the Milankovitch cycles during supercontinent time periods have focused on the mid-Cretaceous. Present amplitudes of Milankovitch cycles over present-day Eurasia may be mirrored in both the southern and northern hemispheres of the supercontinent Pangaea. Climate modeling shows that summer fluctuations varied 14–16 degrees Celsius on Pangaea, which is similar or slightly higher than summer temperatures of Eurasia during the Pleistocene. The largest-amplitude Milankovitch cycles are expected to have been at mid-to high-latitudes during the Triassic and Jurassic.

Atmospheric gases

Plate tectonics and the chemical composition of the atmosphere (specifically greenhouse gases) are the two most prevailing factors present within the geologic time scale. Continental drift influences both cold and warm climatic episodes. Atmospheric circulation and climate are strongly influenced by the location and formation of continents and supercontinents. Therefore, continental drift influences mean global temperature.

Oxygen levels of the Archaean were negligible, and today they are roughly 21 percent. It is thought that the Earth's oxygen content has risen in stages: six or seven steps that are timed very closely to the development of Earth's supercontinents.

1. Continents collide
2. Super-mountains form
3. Erosion of super-mountains
4. Large quantities of minerals and nutrients wash out to open ocean
5. Explosion of marine algae life (partly sourced from noted nutrients)
6. Mass amounts of oxygen produced during photosynthesis

The process of Earth's increase in atmospheric oxygen content is theorized to have started with the continent-continent collision of huge landmasses forming supercontinents, and therefore possibly supercontinent mountain ranges (super-mountains). These super-mountains would have eroded, and the mass amounts of nutrients, including iron and phosphorus, would have washed into oceans, just as is seen happening today. The oceans would then be rich in nutrients essential to photosynthetic organisms, which would then be able to respire mass amounts of oxygen. There is an apparent direct relationship between orogeny and the atmospheric oxygen content. There is also evidence for increased sedimentation concurrent with the timing of these mass oxygenation events, meaning that the organic carbon and pyrite at these times were more likely to be buried beneath sediment and therefore unable to react with the free oxygen. This sustained the atmospheric oxygen increases.

At 2.65 Ga there was an increase in molybdenum isotope fractionation. It was temporary but supports the increase in atmospheric oxygen because molybdenum isotopes require free oxygen to fractionate. Between 2.45 and 2.32 Ga, the second period of oxygenation occurred, which has been called the 'great oxygenation event.' Evidence supporting this event includes red beds appearance 2.3 Ga (meaning that Fe³⁺ was being produced and became an important component in soils).

The third oxygenation stage approximately 1.8 Ga is indicated by the disappearance of iron formations. Neodymium isotopic studies suggest that iron formations are usually from continental sources, meaning that dissolved Fe and Fe²⁺ had to be transported during continental erosion. A rise in atmospheric oxygen prevents Fe transport, so the lack of iron formations may have been the result of an increase in oxygen. The fourth oxygenation event, roughly 0.6 Ga, is based on modeled rates of sulfur isotopes from marine carbonate-associated sulfates. An increase (near doubled concentration) of sulfur isotopes, which is suggested by these models, would require an increase in the oxygen content of the deep oceans.

Between 650 and 550 Ma there were three increases in ocean oxygen levels, this period is the fifth oxygenation stage. One of the reasons indicating this period to be an oxygenation event is the increase in redox-sensitive molybdenum in black shales. The sixth event occurred between 360 and 260 Ma and was identified by models suggesting shifts in the balance of ³⁴S in sulfates and ¹³C in carbonates, which were strongly influenced by an increase in atmospheric oxygen.

Proxies

Granites and detrital zircons have notably similar and episodic appearances in the rock record. Their fluctuations correlate with Precambrian supercontinent cycles. The U–Pb zircon dates from orogenic granites are among the most reliable aging determinants.

Some issues exist with relying on granite sourced zircons, such as a lack of evenly globally sourced data and the loss of granite zircons by sedimentary coverage or plutonic consumption. Where granite zircons are less adequate, detrital zircons from sandstones appear and make up for the gaps. These detrital zircons are taken from the sands of major modern rivers and their drainage basins. Oceanic magnetic anomalies and paleomagnetic data are the primary resources used for reconstructing continent and supercontinent locations back to roughly 150 Ma.

North African climate cycles

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_climate_cycles

North African climate cycles have a unique history that can be traced back millions of years. The cyclic climate pattern of the Sahara is characterized by significant shifts in the strength of the North African Monsoon. When the North African Monsoon is at its strongest, annual precipitation and consequently vegetation in the Sahara region increase, resulting in conditions commonly referred to as the "green Sahara". For a relatively weak North African Monsoon, the opposite is true, with decreased annual precipitation and less vegetation resulting in a phase of the Sahara climate cycle known as the "desert Sahara".

Variations in the climate of the Sahara region can, at the simplest level, be attributed to the changes in insolation because of slow shifts in Earth's orbital parameters. The parameters include the precession of the equinoxes, obliquity, and eccentricity as put forth by the Milankovitch theory. The precession of the equinoxes is regarded as the most important orbital parameter in the formation of the "green Sahara" and "desert Sahara" cycle.

A January 2019 MIT paper in Science Advances shows a cycle from wet to dry approximately every 20,000 years.

Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis

Development

The idea that changes in insolation caused by shifts in the Earth's orbital parameters are a controlling factor for the long-term variations in the strength of monsoon patterns across the globe was first suggested by Rudolf Spitaler in the late nineteenth century, The hypothesis was later formally proposed and tested by the meteorologist John Kutzbach in 1981. Kutzbach's ideas about the impacts of insolation on global monsoonal patterns have become widely accepted today as the underlying driver of long term monsoonal cycles. Kutzbach never formally named his hypothesis and as such it is referred to here as the "Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis" as suggested by Ruddiman in 2001.

Insolation

Insolation, which is simply a measure of the amount of solar radiation received on a given surface area in a given time period, is the fundamental factor behind the Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis. Due to variations in heat capacity, continents heat up faster than surrounding oceans during summer months when insolation is at its strongest and cool off faster than the surrounding oceans during winter months when insolation is at its weakest. The wind pattern that results from the continent/ocean insolation temperature gradient is known as a monsoon. Values of summer insolation are more important for a region's climate than winter values. This is because the winter phase of a monsoon is always dry. Thus the flora and fauna of a monsoonal climate are determined by the amount of rain that falls during the summer phase of the monsoon. Over periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years the amount of insolation changes in a highly complex cycle that is based on orbital parameters. The result of this cycle of insolation is a waxing and waning in the strength of the monsoonal climates across the globe. A wide range of geologic evidence has shown that the North African Monsoon is particularly susceptible to insolation cycles, and long term trends in monsoonal strength can be linked to slow variations in insolation. However, the abrupt shifts back and forth from the "green Sahara" to the "desert Sahara" are not entirely explained by long term changes in the insolation cycle.

Precession

Precession of the equinoxes on Earth can be divided up into two distinct phases. The first phase is created by a wobbling of the Earth's axis of rotation and is known as axial precession. While the second phase is known as apsidal precession or procession of the ellipse and is related to the slow rotation of the Earth's elliptical orbit around the Sun. When combined these two phases create a precession of the equinoxes that has a strong 23,000-year cycle and a weak 19,000-year cycle.

Variations in the strength of the North African Monsoon have been found to be strongly related to the stronger 23,000-year processional cycle. The relationship between the precession cycle and the strength of the North African Monsoon exists because procession affects the amount of insolation received in a given hemisphere. The amount of insolation is maximized for the northern hemisphere when the precession cycle is aligned such that the northern hemisphere points toward the sun at perihelion. According to the Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis this maximum in insolation increases the strength of monsoon circulations in the northern hemisphere. On the opposite end of the spectrum, when the Northern Hemisphere is pointed toward the sun during aphelion, there is a minimum in insolation and the North African Monsoon is at its weakest.

Obliquity

Obliquity, otherwise known as (axial) tilt, refers to the angle that Earth's axis of rotation makes with a line that is perpendicular to Earth's orbital plane. The current tilt of Earth's axis is roughly 23.5°. However, over long periods of time the tilt of Earth's axis of rotation changes because of the uneven distribution of mass across the planet and gravitational interactions with the Sun, Moon, and planets. Due to these interactions the tilt of Earth's axis of rotation varies between 22.2° and 24.5° on a 41,000-year cycle.

Modulation of the precession-driven insolation cycle is the primary impact of obliquity on the North African Monsoon. Evidence for the impact of obliquity on the intensity of the North African Monsoon has been found in records of dust deposits from ocean cores in the Eastern Mediterranean that occur as a result of Aeolian processes. This evidence requires complex feedback mechanisms to explain since the strongest impact of obliquity on insolation is found in the high latitudes. Two possible mechanisms for the existence of an obliquity tracer found in the Eastern Mediterranean Aeolian dust deposits have been proposed. The first of which suggests that at times of higher obliquity the temperature gradient between the poles and the equator in the southern hemisphere is greater during boreal summer (summer in the northern hemisphere). As a result of this gradient the strength of the North African Monsoon increases. A second theory that may explain the existence of an obliquity signature in the North African climate record suggests that obliquity maybe related to changes in the latitude of the tropics. The latitudinal extent of the tropics is roughly defined by the maximum wandering path of the thermal equator. An area that today is located between the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer. However, as the obliquity changes, the overall wandering path of the thermal equator shifts between 22.2° and 24.5° north and south. This wandering may affect the positioning of the North African Summer Monsoon Front and thus impact the perceived strength of the North African Monsoon. Further confirmation of the impacts of obliquity on the North African Monsoonal have been provided through a global fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice climate model, which confirmed that precession and obliquity can combine to increase precipitation in North Africa through insolation feedbacks.

Eccentricity

Orbital eccentricity is a measure of the deviation of the Earth's orbit from a perfect circle. If the Earth's orbit was a perfect circle then the eccentricity would have a value of 0, and eccentricity value of 1 would indicate a parabola. The Earth has two cycles of eccentricity that occur on cycles of 100,000 and 400,000 years. Over the years the Earth's eccentricity has varied between 0.005 and 0.0607, today the eccentricity of Earth's orbit is approximately 0.0167. While the value of eccentricity does impact the distance of the Earth from the Sun, its primary impact on insolation comes from its modulating effect on the procession cycle. For example, when the orbit of the Earth is highly elliptical one hemisphere will have hot summers and cold winters, corresponding to a larger than average yearly insolation gradient. At the same time the other hemisphere will have warm summers and cool winters due to a smaller than average yearly insolation gradient.

Like obliquity, eccentricity is not considered to be a primary driver of the strength of the North African Monsoon. Instead eccentricity modulates the amplitude of the insolation maxima and minima that occur due to the precession cycle. Strong support for the modulation of the precession cycle by eccentricity can be found in Aeolian dust deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean. Upon close examination it can be shown that periods of low and high hematite fluxes correspond to both the 100,000-year and 400,000-year eccentricity cycles. It is believed that this evidence for the eccentricity cycles in the dust record of the Eastern Mediterranean indicates a stronger northward progression of the North African Monsoonal Front during times when the eccentricity and precession insolation maxima coincide. The modulating effect of eccentricity on the precession cycle has also been shown using a global fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice climate model.

Lag

One key issue with the Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis is that a detailed inspection of climate record indicates that there is a 1000 to 2000 year lag in the observed North African Monsoon maximum compared to the predicted maximum. This issue occurs because the Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis assumes that there is an instantaneous response by the climate system to changes in insolation from orbital forcing. However, there are a number of fixes for this problem. The most reasonable fix can be shown through a simple analog to today's climate. Currently the peak in solar radiation occurs on June 21, but the peak of the summer monsoon in North Africa occurs a month later in July. A one-month lag such as this should be represented by roughly a 1500 to 2000 year lag in the monsoonal circulation maximum, because a July insolation maximum in a 19,000 to 23,000-year precession cycle occurs roughly 1500 to 2000 years after the June insolation maximum. Two other possible explanations for the observed lag in the data have been put forward. The first suggest that the development of the monsoons in the subtropics is tempered by the slow melting of polar ice sheets. Thus the full strength of the monsoonal pattern is not observed until the polar ice sheets have become so small that their impact on the development of yearly monsoons is minimal. The second alternative solution proposes that relatively cool tropical oceans left over from glaciation may initially slow the development of monsoons globally, since colder oceans are less potent sources of moisture.

Supporting evidence

Sapropels

Sapropels are dark organic rich marine sediments that contain greater than 2% organic carbon by weight. In the Eastern Mediterranean layers of sapropels can be found in marine sediment cores that align with periods of maximum insolation in the precession cycle over Northern Africa. Such an alignment can be explained by a link to the North African Monsoon. During periods of high insolation the increased strength and northward progression of the North African Monsoonal Front causes very heavy rain along the upper and middle reaches of the Nile River basin. These rains then flow northward and are discharged into the Eastern Mediterranean, where the large influx of nutrient rich fresh water causes a steep vertical salinity gradient. As a result, thermohaline convection is shut off and the water column becomes stably stratified. Once this stable stratification occurs, bottom waters in the Eastern Mediterranean quickly become depleted in oxygen and the large influx of pelagic organic matter from the nutrient rich surface waters is preserved as sapropel formations. One of the key pieces of evidence linking the formation of sapropels to enhance discharge from the Nile River is the fact that they have occurred during both interglacial and glacial periods. Therefore, the formation of sapropels must be linked to fresh water discharge from the Nile River and not melt water from dissipating ice sheets.

Paleolakes

Evidence for the existence of large lakes in the Sahara can be found and interpreted from the geologic record. These lakes fill as the precession cycle approaches the insolation maximum and are then depleted as the precession cycle nears the insolation minimum. The largest of these paleolakes was Lake Megachad, which at its peak was 173 m deep and covered an area of roughly 400,000 km². Today the remnants of this once massive lake are known as Lake Chad, which has a maximum depth of 11 m and an area of only 1,350 km². Satellite imagery of the shorelines of ancient Lake Megachad reveal that the lake has existed under two distinctive wind regimes, one northeasterly and southwesterly. The northeasterly wind regime is consistent with today's wind patterns and is characteristic of weak monsoonal flow. Meanwhile, the southwesterly wind regime is characteristic of a stronger monsoonal flow.

Freshwater diatoms

Another key piece of evidence for a processional control on the North African Monsoon can be found in the deposits of freshwater diatoms in the tropical Atlantic. Ocean cores from the tropical Atlantic have been found to have distinct layers of the freshwater diatom Aulacoseira granulata, also known as Melosira granulata. These layers occur on a 23,000-year cycle that lags the maximum in precession insolation by roughly 5000 to 6000 years. To explain these cyclic freshwater diatom deposits we have to look inland at the Sahara region of Africa. Around the time of the insolation maximum in the precession cycle the North African Monsoon is at its strongest and the Sahara region becomes dominated by large monsoonal lakes. Then as time progress toward the insolation minima, these lakes begin to dry out due to weakening North African Monsoon. As the lakes dry up thin sediment deposits containing freshwater diatoms are exposed. Finally, when the prevailing northeasterly winds arrive during winter, the freshwater diatom deposits in the dried lake beds are picked up as dust and carried thousands of kilometers out into the tropical Atlantic. From this series of events the reason for 5000 to 6000-year delay in the freshwater diatom deposits is evident, since the North African Monsoon must become sufficiently weak before the monsoonal lakes in the Sahara begin to dry up and expose potential freshwater diatom sources. One key factor that must be noted with freshwater diatom deposits is species identification. For instance some ocean cores directly off the western coast of Africa show a mix of freshwater lake and river diatom species. So for a core to accurately represent the diatom cycle of the Sahara it must be recovered from a region of the tropical Atlantic that has sufficient distance from the coast such that the impacts of river outflows are minimized.

Eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling

Observed variations in the strength of the eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling zone can also be used to support a cycle of the North African Monsoon that is regulated by the precession cycle. When insolation in North Africa is at its peak during the precession cycle the easterly trade winds over the equatorial Atlantic are strongly diverted toward the Sahara. This diversion weakens the equatorial upwelling zone in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, resulting in warmer waters in the pelagic. On the other end of the spectrum when insolation in North Africa is at a minimum due to the precession cycle, the diversion of the easterly trade winds is relatively weak. Due to this the region of upwelling in the eastern equatorial Atlantic remains strong and the waters in the pelagic zone are cooler. The proof that this pattern of periodic weakening of the eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling exists is found in deposits of surface dwelling planktic organisms in ocean sediment cores. Such cores show that the relative abundance of warm and cold water planktic species vary with a consistent beat of 23,000 years, matching the 23,000-year precession insolation cycle.

African Humid Period

Main article: African humid period

Climatology

The African Humid Period occurred between 14,800 and 5,500 years ago, and was the last occurrence of a "green Sahara". Conditions in the Sahara during the African Humid Period were dominated by a strong North African Monsoon, resulting in larger annual rainfall totals compared to today's conditions. With the increased rainfall, the vegetation patterns in North Africa were nothing like what we see today. The majority of the Sahara region for instance was characterized by expansive grasslands, also known as steppe. Meanwhile, the Sahel region south of the Sahara was mostly savanna. Today the Sahara region is mostly desert and the Sahel is characterized by savannah grasslands conditions. The African Humid Period was also characterized by a network of vast waterways in the Sahara, consisting of large lakes, rivers, and deltas. The four largest lakes were Lake Megachad, Lake Megafezzan, Ahnet-Mouydir Megalake, and Chotts Megalake. Large rivers in the region included the Senegal River, Nile River, Sahabi River, and Kufra River. These river and lake systems provided corridors that allowed many animal species, including humans, to expand their range across the Sahara.

Onset and termination

Geologic evidence from the beginning and end of the African Humid Period suggests that both the onset and termination of the African Humid Period were abrupt. In fact both events likely occurred on a timescale of decades to centuries. The onset and termination of the African Humid Period both occurred when the insolation cycle reached a value of roughly 4.2% higher than today. However, shifts in the insolation cycle are too gradual to cause abrupt climate transitions like those seen at the onset and termination of the African Humid Period all on their own. So to account for these rapid shifts in the climate of the Sahara, several nonlinear feedback mechanisms have been proposed. One of the most common sets of nonlinear feedback mechanisms considered, are vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Computer models looking at vegetation-atmosphere interactions and insolation across North Africa have shown the ability to simulate the rapid transitions between "green Sahara" and "desert Sahara" regimes. Thus the results from these models suggest the possible existence of a vegetation-insolation threshold, which if reached, allows the Sahara region to rapidly transition from "green Sahara" to "desert Sahara" and vice versa.

Milankovitch cycles

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Past and future Milankovitch cycles via VSOP model

• Graphic shows variations in five orbital elements:
    Axial tilt or obliquity (ε).
    Eccentricity (e).
    Longitude of perihelion (sin(ϖ)).
    Precession index (e sin(ϖ))
• Precession index and obliquity control insolation at each latitude:
    Daily-average insolation at top of atmosphere on summer solstice (${\overline{Q}}^{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{y}}$) at 65° N
• Ocean sediment and Antarctic ice strata record ancient sea levels and temperatures:
    Benthic forams (57 widespread locations)
    Vostok ice core (Antarctica)
• Vertical gray line shows present (2000 CE)

Milankovitch cycles describe the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements on its climate over thousands of years. The term was coined and named after the Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milanković. In the 1920s, he provided a more definitive and quantitative analysis than James Croll's earlier hypothesis that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession combined to result in cyclical variations in the intra-annual and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation at the Earth's surface, and that this orbital forcing strongly influenced the Earth's climatic patterns.

Earth movements

The Earth's rotation around its axis, and revolution around the Sun, evolve over time due to gravitational interactions with other bodies in the Solar System. The variations are complex, but a few cycles are dominant.

Circular orbit, no eccentricity

 

Example orbit with 0.5 eccentricity. Earth's orbit is much less eccentric.

The Earth's orbit varies between nearly circular and mildly elliptical (its eccentricity varies). When the orbit is more elongated, there is more variation in the distance between the Earth and the Sun, and in the amount of solar radiation, at different times in the year. In addition, the rotational tilt of the Earth (its obliquity) changes slightly. A greater tilt makes the seasons more extreme. Finally, the direction in the fixed stars pointed to by the Earth's axis changes (axial precession), while the Earth's elliptical orbit around the Sun rotates (apsidal precession). The combined effect of precession with eccentricity is that proximity to the Sun occurs during different astronomical seasons.

Milankovitch studied changes in these movements of the Earth, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Milankovitch emphasized the changes experienced at 65° north due to the great amount of land at that latitude. Land masses change surface temperature more quickly than oceans, mainly because convective mixing between shallow and deeper waters keeps the ocean surface relatively cooler. Similarly, the very large thermal inertia of the global ocean delays changes to Earth's average surface temperature when gradually driven by other forcing factors.

Orbital eccentricity

Main article: Orbital eccentricity

The Earth's orbit approximates an ellipse. Eccentricity measures the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies between nearly circular (theoretically the eccentricity can hit zero) and mildly elliptical (highest eccentricity was 0.0679 in the last 250 million years). Its geometric or logarithmic mean is 0.0019. The major component of these variations occurs with a period of 405,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). Other components have 95,000-year and 124,000-year cycles (with a beat period of 400,000 years). They loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.0167 and decreasing.

Eccentricity varies primarily due to the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn. The semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse, however, remains unchanged; according to perturbation theory, which computes the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is invariant. The orbital period (the length of a sidereal year) is also invariant, because according to Kepler's third law, it is determined by the semi-major axis. Longer-term variations are caused by interactions involving the perihelia and nodes of the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, and Jupiter.

Effect on temperature

The semi-major axis is a constant. Therefore, when Earth's orbit becomes more eccentric, the semi-minor axis shortens. This increases the magnitude of seasonal changes.

The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than four times the eccentricity. For Earth's current orbital eccentricity, incoming solar radiation varies by about 6.8%, while the distance from the Sun currently varies by only 3.4% (5.1 million km or 3.2 million mi or 0.034 au).

Perihelion presently occurs around 3 January, while aphelion is around 4 July. When the orbit is at its most eccentric, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more than at aphelion. However, the Earth's eccentricity is so small (at least at present) that the variation in solar irradiation is a minor factor in seasonal climate variation, compared to axial tilt and even compared to the relative ease of heating the larger land masses of the northern hemisphere.

Effect on lengths of seasons

Season durations

Year	Northern hemisphere	Southern hemisphere	Date (UTC)	Season duration
2005	Winter solstice	Summer solstice	21 December 2005 18:35	88.99 days
2006	Spring equinox	Autumn equinox	20 March 2006 18:26	92.75 days
2006	Summer solstice	Winter solstice	21 June 2006 12:26	93.65 days
2006	Autumn equinox	Spring equinox	23 September 2006 4:03	89.85 days
2006	Winter solstice	Summer solstice	22 December 2006 0:22	88.99 days
2007	Spring equinox	Autumn equinox	21 March 2007 0:07	92.75 days
2007	Summer solstice	Winter solstice	21 June 2007 18:06	93.66 days
2007	Autumn equinox	Spring equinox	23 September 2007 9:51	89.85 days
2007	Winter solstice	Summer solstice	22 December 2007 06:08

The seasons are quadrants of the Earth's orbit, marked by the two solstices and the two equinoxes. Kepler's second law states that a body in orbit traces equal areas over equal times; its orbital velocity is highest around perihelion and lowest around aphelion. The Earth spends less time near perihelion and more time near aphelion. This means that the lengths of the seasons vary. Perihelion currently occurs around 3 January, so the Earth's greater velocity shortens winter and autumn in the northern hemisphere, and summer and spring in the southern hemisphere. Summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter, and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. In the southern hemisphere this is the reverse, winter is 4.66 days longer than summer, and autumn is 2.9 days longer than spring. Greater eccentricity increases the variation in the Earth's orbital velocity. Currently, however, the Earth's orbit is becoming less eccentric (more nearly circular). This will make the seasons in the immediate future more similar in length.

Axial tilt (obliquity)

Main article: Axial tilt

22.1–24.5° range of Earth's obliquity.

The angle of the Earth's axial tilt with respect to the orbital plane (the obliquity of the ecliptic) varies between 22.1° and 24.5°, over a cycle of about 41,000 years. The current tilt is 23.44°, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt last reached its maximum in 8,700 BCE, which correlates with the beginning of the Holocene, the current geological epoch. It is now in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum around the year 11,800 CE. Increased tilt increases the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation, providing more solar radiation in each hemisphere's summer and less in winter. However, these effects are not uniform everywhere on the Earth's surface. Increased tilt increases the total annual solar radiation at higher latitudes, and decreases the total closer to the equator.

The current trend of decreasing tilt, by itself, will promote milder seasons (warmer winters and colder summers), as well as an overall cooling trend. Because most of the planet's snow and ice lies at high latitude, decreasing tilt may encourage the termination of an interglacial period (and lead to an overall cooler climate) and the onset of a glacial period for two reasons: 1) there is less overall summer insolation, and 2) there is less insolation at higher latitudes (which melts less of the previous winter's snow and ice).

Axial precession

Main article: Axial precession

Axial precessional movement.

Axial precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of about 25,700 years. Also known as the precession of the equinoxes, this motion means that eventually Polaris will no longer be the north pole star. This precession is caused by the tidal forces exerted by the Sun and the Moon on the rotating Earth; both contribute roughly equally to this effect.

Currently, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer. This means that solar radiation due to both the axial tilt inclining the southern hemisphere toward the Sun, and the Earth's proximity to the Sun, will reach maximum during the southern summer and reach minimum during the southern winter. These effects on heating are thus additive, which means that seasonal variation in irradiation of the southern hemisphere is more extreme. In the northern hemisphere, these two factors reach maximum at opposite times of the year: the north is tilted toward the Sun when the Earth is furthest from the Sun. The two effects work in opposite directions, resulting in less extreme variations in insolation.

In about 13,000 years, the north pole will be tilted toward the Sun when the Earth is at perihelion. Axial tilt and orbital eccentricity will both contribute their maximum increase in solar radiation during the northern hemisphere's summer. Axial precession will promote more extreme variation in irradiation of the northern hemisphere and less extreme variation in the south. When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, axial tilt will not be aligned with or against eccentricity.

Apsidal precession

Main article: Apsidal precession

Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse, as well as the rate of precession, are exaggerated for visualization.

The orbital ellipse itself precesses in space, in an irregular fashion, completing a full cycle in about 112,000 years relative to the fixed stars. Apsidal precession occurs in the plane of the ecliptic and alters the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the ecliptic. This happens primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. Smaller contributions are also made by the sun's oblateness and by the effects of general relativity that are well known for Mercury.

Apsidal precession combines with the 25,700-year cycle of axial precession (see above) to vary the position in the year that the Earth reaches perihelion. Apsidal precession shortens this period to about 21,000 years, at present. According to a relatively old source (1965), the average value over the last 300,000 years was 23,000 years, varying between 20,800 and 29,000 years.

Effects of precession on the seasons (using the Northern Hemisphere terms)

As the orientation of Earth's orbit changes, each season will gradually start earlier in the year. Precession means the Earth's nonuniform motion (see above) will affect different seasons. Winter, for instance, will be in a different section of the orbit. When the Earth's apsides (extremes of distance from the sun) are aligned with the equinoxes, the length of spring and summer combined will equal that of autumn and winter. When they are aligned with the solstices, the difference in the length of these seasons will be greatest.

Orbital inclination

Main article: Orbital inclination

The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit. This three-dimensional movement is known as "precession of the ecliptic" or "planetary precession". Earth's current inclination relative to the invariable plane (the plane that represents the angular momentum of the Solar System—approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter) is 1.57°. Milankovitch did not study planetary precession. It was discovered more recently and measured, relative to Earth's orbit, to have a period of about 70,000 years. When measured independently of Earth's orbit, but relative to the invariable plane, however, precession has a period of about 100,000 years. This period is very similar to the 100,000-year eccentricity period. Both periods closely match the 100,000-year pattern of glacial events.

Theory constraints

Tabernas Desert, Spain: Cycles can be observed in the colouration and resistance of different sediment strata

Materials taken from the Earth have been studied to infer the cycles of past climate. Antarctic ice cores contain trapped air bubbles whose ratios of different oxygen isotopes are a reliable proxy for global temperatures around the time the ice was formed. Study of this data concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by northern hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis. Similar astronomical hypotheses had been advanced in the 19th century by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll, and others.

Analysis of deep-ocean cores and of lake depths, and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton provide additional validation through physical evidence. Climate records contained in a 1,700 ft (520 m) core of rock drilled in Arizona show a pattern synchronized with Earth's eccentricity, and cores drilled in New England match it, going back 215 million years.

100,000-year issue

Main article: 100,000-year problem

Of all the orbital cycles, Milankovitch believed that obliquity had the greatest effect on climate, and that it did so by varying the summer insolation in northern high latitudes. Therefore, he deduced a 41,000-year period for ice ages. However, subsequent research has shown that ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciation over the last million years have been at a period of 100,000 years, which matches the eccentricity cycle. Various explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation or various feedbacks (from carbon dioxide, or ice sheet dynamics). Some models can reproduce the 100,000-year cycles as a result of non-linear interactions between small changes in the Earth's orbit and internal oscillations of the climate system. In particular, the mechanism of the stochastic resonance was originally proposed in order to describe this interaction.

Jung-Eun Lee of Brown University proposes that precession changes the amount of energy that Earth absorbs, because the southern hemisphere's greater ability to grow sea ice reflects more energy away from Earth. Moreover, Lee says, "Precession only matters when eccentricity is large. That's why we see a stronger 100,000-year pace than a 21,000-year pace." Some others have argued that the length of the climate record is insufficient to establish a statistically significant relationship between climate and eccentricity variations.

Transition changes

Main article: Mid-Pleistocene Transition

Variations of cycle times, curves determined from ocean sediments.

420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok, Antarctica research station, with more recent times on the left.

From 1–3 million years ago, climate cycles matched the 41,000-year cycle in obliquity. After one million years ago, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurred with a switch to the 100,000-year cycle matching eccentricity. The transition problem refers to the need to explain what changed one million years ago. The MPT can now be reproduced in numerical simulations that include a decreasing trend in carbon dioxide and glacially induced removal of regolith.

Interpretation of unsplit peak variances

Even the well-dated climate records of the last million years do not exactly match the shape of the eccentricity curve. Eccentricity has component cycles of 95,000 and 125,000 years. Some researchers, however, say the records do not show these peaks, but only indicate a single cycle of 100,000 years. The split between the two eccentricity components, however, is observed at least once in a drill core from the 500-million year-old Scandinavian Alum Shale.

Unsynced stage five observation

Deep-sea core samples show that the interglacial interval known as marine isotope stage 5 began 130,000 years ago. This is 10,000 years before the solar forcing that the Milankovitch hypothesis predicts. (This is also known as the causality problem because the effect precedes the putative cause.)

Present and future conditions

Past and future estimations of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the summer solstice, at 65° N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e; the blue dot indicates current conditions (2000 CE).

Since orbital variations are predictable, any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate, with two caveats: the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not definitive; and non-orbital effects can be important (for example, the human impact on the environment principally increases greenhouse gases resulting in a warmer climate).

An often-cited 1980 orbital model by Imbrie predicted "the long-term cooling trend that began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years." Another work suggests that solar insolation at 65° N will reach a peak of 460 W·m⁻² in around 6,500 years, before decreasing back to current levels (450 W·m⁻²) in around 16,000 years. Earth's orbit will become less eccentric for about the next 100,000 years, so changes in this insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity, and should not decline enough to permit a new glacial period in the next 50,000 years.

Other celestial bodies

Mars

Since 1972, speculation sought a relationship between the formation of Mars' alternating bright and dark layers in the polar layered deposits, and the planet's orbital climate forcing. In 2002, Laska, Levard, and Mustard showed ice-layer radiance, as a function of depth, correlate with the insolation variations in summer at the Martian north pole, similar to palaeoclimate variations on Earth. They also showed Mars' precession had a period of about 51 kyr, obliquity had a period of about 120 kyr, and eccentricity had a period ranging between 95 and 99 kyr. In 2003, Head, Mustard, Kreslavsky, Milliken, and Marchant proposed Mars was in an interglacial period for the past 400 kyr, and in a glacial period between 400 and 2100 kyr, due to Mars' obliquity exceeding 30°. At this extreme obliquity, insolation is dominated by the regular periodicity of Mars' obliquity variation. Fourier analysis of Mars' orbital elements, show an obliquity period of 128 kyr, and a precession index period of 73 kyr.

Mars has no moon large enough to stabilize its obliquity, which has varied from 10 to 70 degrees. This would explain recent observations of its surface compared to evidence of different conditions in its past, such as the extent of its polar caps.

Outer Solar system

Saturn's moon Titan has a cycle of approximately 60,000 years that could change the location of the methane lakes. Neptune's moon Triton has a variation similar to Titan's, which could cause its solid nitrogen deposits to migrate over long time scales.

Exoplanets

Scientists using computer models to study extreme axial tilts have concluded that high obliquity could cause extreme climate variations, and while that would probably not render a planet uninhabitable, it could pose difficulty for land-based life in affected areas. Most such planets would nevertheless allow development of both simple and more complex lifeforms. Although the obliquity they studied is more extreme than Earth ever experiences, there are scenarios 1.5 to 4.5 billion years from now, as the Moon's stabilizing effect lessens, where obliquity could leave its current range and the poles could eventually point almost directly at the Sun.