Climate change (general concept)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Climate change occurs when changes in Earth's climate system result in new weather patterns that remain in place for an extended period of time. This length of time can be as short as a few decades to as long as millions of years. Scientists have identified many episodes of climate change during Earth's geological history; more recently since the industrial revolution the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities driving global warming, and the terms are commonly used interchangeably in that context.

The climate system receives nearly all of its energy from the sun. The climate system also gives off energy to outer space. The balance of incoming and outgoing energy, and the passage of the energy through the climate system, determines Earth's energy budget. When the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, earth's energy budget is positive and the climate system is warming. If more energy goes out, the energy budget is negative and earth experiences cooling.

The energy moving through Earth's climate system finds expression in weather, varying on geographic scales and time. Long-term averages of weather in a region constitute the region's climate. Climate change is a long-term, sustained trend of change in climate. Such changes can be the result of "internal variability", when natural processes inherent to the various parts of the climate system alter the distribution of energy. Examples include variability in ocean basins such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Climate change can also result from external forcing, when events outside of the climate system's components nonetheless produce changes within the system. Examples include changes in solar output and volcanism.

Climate change has various consequences for sea level changes, plant life, mass extinctions and also affects human societies.

Terminology

The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally its mean and spread) of meteorological variables when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Niño, do not represent climate change.

The term "climate change" is often used to refer specifically to anthropogenic climate change (also known as global warming). Anthropogenic climate change is caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes. In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. Within scientific journals, global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels affect.

A related term, "climatic change", was proposed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1966 to encompass all forms of climatic variability on time-scales longer than 10 years, but regardless of cause. During the 1970s, the term climate change replaced climatic change to focus on anthropogenic causes, as it became clear that human activities had a potential to drastically alter the climate. Climate change was incorporated in the title of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Climate change is now used as both a technical description of the process, as well as a noun used to describe the problem.

Causes

On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the Sun and the rate at which it is lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth. This energy is distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the climates of different regions.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms". These include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, variations in the albedo or reflectivity of the continents, atmosphere, and oceans, mountain-building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond more slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others respond more quickly. There are also key threshold factors which when exceeded can produce rapid change.

Climate change can either occur due to external forcing or due to internal processes. Internal unforced processes often involve changes in the distribution of energy in the ocean and atmosphere, for instance changes in the thermohaline circulation. External forcing mechanisms can be either anthropogenic (e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and dust) or natural (e.g., changes in solar output, the earth's orbit, volcano eruptions).

The response of the climate system to a climate forcing might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g. thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the Arctic Ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water). Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing mechanisms might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer.

Internal variability

Pacific decadal oscillation 1925 to 2010

 

Scientists generally define the five components of earth's climate system to include atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere (restricted to the surface soils, rocks, and sediments), and biosphere. Natural changes in the climate system result in internal "climate variability". Examples include the type and distribution of species, and changes in ocean-atmosphere circulations.

Climate change due to internal variability sometimes occurs in cycles or oscillations, for instance every 100 or 2000 years. For other types of natural climatic change, we cannot predict when it happens; the change is called random or stochastic. From a climate perspective, the weather can be considered as being random. If there are little clouds in a particular year, there is an energy imbalance and extra heat can be absorbed by the oceans. Due to climate inertia, this signal can be 'stored' in the ocean and be expressed as variability on longer time scales than the original weather disturbances. If the weather disturbances are completely random, occurring as white noise, the inertia of glaciers or oceans can transform this into climate changes where longer-duration oscillations are also larger oscillations, a phenomenon called red noise. Many climate changes have a random aspect and a cyclical aspect. This behavior is dubbed stochastic resonance.

Ocean-atmosphere variability

The ocean and atmosphere can work together to spontaneously generate internal climate variability that can persist for years to decades at a time. Examples of this type of variability include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These variations can affect global average surface temperature by redistributing heat between the deep ocean and the atmosphere and/or by altering the cloud/water vapor/sea ice distribution which can affect the total energy budget of the earth.

Ocean circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation. Tens of millions of years ago, continental-plate movement formed a land-free gap around Antarctica, allowing the formation of the ACC, which keeps warm waters away from Antarctica.

 

The oceanic aspects of climate variability can generate variability on centennial timescales due to the ocean having hundreds of times more mass than in the atmosphere, and thus very high thermal inertia. For example, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat in the world's oceans.

Ocean currents transport a lot of energy from the warm tropical regions to the colder polar regions. Changes occurring around the last ice age (in technical terms, the last glacial) show that the circulation is the North Atlantic can change suddenly and substantially, leading to global climate changes, even though the total amount of energy coming into the climate system didn't change much. These large changes may have come from so called Heinrich events where internal instability of ice sheets caused huge ice bergs to be released into the ocean. When the ice sheet melts, the resulting water is very low in salt and cold, driving changes in circulation. Another example of climate changes partially driven by internal variability are the regional changes driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

Life

Life affects climate through its role in the carbon and water cycles and through such mechanisms as albedo, evapotranspiration, cloud formation, and weathering. Examples of how life may have affected past climate include:

• glaciation 2.3 billion years ago triggered by the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis, which depleted the atmosphere of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and introduced free oxygen
• another glaciation 300 million years ago ushered in by long-term burial of decomposition-resistant detritus of vascular land-plants (creating a carbon sink and forming coal)
• termination of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 million years ago by flourishing marine phytoplankton
• reversal of global warming 49 million years ago by 800,000 years of arctic azolla blooms
• global cooling over the past 40 million years driven by the expansion of grass-grazer ecosystems

External climate forcing

Greenhouse gases

Increase in atmospheric CO
2 levels

Whereas greenhouse gases released by the biosphere is often seen as a feedback or internal climate process, greenhouse gases emitted from volcanoes are typically classified as external by climatologists. Greenhouse gases, such as CO
2, methane and nitrous oxide, heat the climate system by trapping infrared light. 

The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities", and it "is largely irreversible". There has been multiple indications of how human activities affect global warming and continue to do so.

... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

— United States National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Human's main impact is by emitting CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere), and the CO₂ released by cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal husbandry (ruminant animals such as cattle produce methane), and deforestation, are also play a role.

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. The US Geological Survey estimates are that volcanic emissions are at a much lower level than the effects of current human activities, which generate 100–300 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes. The annual amount put out by human activities may be greater than the amount released by supereruptions, the most recent of which was the Toba eruption in Indonesia 74,000 years ago.

Orbital variations

Milankovitch cycles from 800,000 years ago in the past to 800,000 years in the future.

 

Variations in CO₂, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years

Slight variations in Earth's motion lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of kinematic change are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which affect climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara, and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

During the glacial cycles, there was a high correlation between CO
2 concentrations and temperatures. Early studies indicated that CO
2 concentrations lagged temperatures, but it has become clear that this isn't always the case. When seawater temperatures increase, the solubility of CO
2 decreases so that it is released from the ocean. The exchange of CO
2 between the air and the ocean can also be impacted by further aspects of climatic change. These and other self-reinforcing processes allow small changes in Earth's motion to have a possibly large effect on climate.

Solar output

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes. The period of extraordinarily few sunspots in the late 17th century was the Maunder minimum.

 

The Sun is the predominant source of energy input to the Earth's climate system. Other sources include geothermal energy from the Earth's core, tidal energy from the Moon and heat from the decay of radioactive compounds. Both long term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate. Solar output varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. Correlation between sunspots and climate and tenuous at best.

Three to four billion years ago, the Sun emitted only 75% as much power as it does today. If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have existed on the Earth's surface. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean and Archean eons, leading to what is known as the faint young Sun paradox. Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist. Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the Sun increased. Over the next five billion years, the Sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending any life on Earth that survives until that time.

Volcanism

In atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2010, determined by MSU NASA satellites, effects appear from aerosols released by major volcanic eruptions (El Chichón and Pinatubo). El Niño is a separate event, from ocean variability.

 

The eruptions considered to be large enough to affect the Earth's climate on a scale of more than 1 year are the ones that inject over 100,000 tons of SO₂ into the stratosphere. This is due to the optical properties of SO₂ and sulfate aerosols, which strongly absorb or scatter solar radiation, creating a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. On average, such eruptions occur several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of several years. Although volcanoes are technically part of the lithosphere, which itself is part of the climate system, the IPCC explicitly defines volcanism as an external forcing agent.

Notable eruptions in the historical records are the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years, and the Mount Tambora eruption in 1815 causing the Year Without a Summer.

At a larger scale – a few times every 50 million to 100 million years – the eruption of large igneous provinces brings large quantities of igneous rock from the mantle and lithosphere to the Earth's surface. Carbon dioxide in the rock is then released into the atmosphere. Small eruptions, with injections of less than 0.1 Mt of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, affect the atmosphere only subtly, as temperature changes are comparable with natural variability. However, because smaller eruptions occur at a much higher frequency, they too significantly affect Earth's atmosphere.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover. During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation. Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

Other mechanisms

It has been postulated that ionized particles known as cosmic rays could impact cloud cover and thereby the climate. As the sun shields the earth from these particles, changes in solar activity were hypothesized to influence climate indirectly as well. To test the hypothesis, CERN designed the CLOUD experiment, which showed the effect of cosmic rays is too weak to influence climate noticeably.

Evidence exists that the Chicxulub asteroid impact some 66 million years ago had severely affected the Earth's climate. Large quantities of sulfate aerosols were kicked up into the atmosphere, decreasing global temperatures by up to 26 °C and producing sub-freezing temperatures for a period of 3–16 years. The recovery time for this event took more than 30 years. The large-scale use of nuclear weapons has also been investigated for its impact on the climate. The hypothesis is that soot released by large-scale fires blocks a significant fraction of sunlight for as much as a year, leading to a sharp drop in temperatures for a few years. This possible event is described as nuclear winter.

Human's use of land impact how much sunlight the surface reflects and the concentration of dust. Cloud formation is not only influenced by how much water is in the air and the temperature, but also by the amount of aerosols in the air such as dust. Globally, more dust is available if there are many regions with dry soils, little vegetation and strong winds.

Evidence and measurement of climate changes

Evidence of past climate change and present climate change comes from a variety of sources. Paleoclimatology is the study of changes in climate taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth. It uses a variety of proxy methods from the Earth and life sciences to obtain data previously preserved within things such as rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings, corals, shells, and microfossils. It then uses the records to determine the past states of the Earth's various climate regions and its atmospheric system. Direct measurements give a more complete overview of climate change.

Direct measurements

Climate changes that occurred after the widespread deployment of measuring devices, can be observed directly. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. Further observations are done by satellite and derived indirectly from historical documents. Satellite cloud and precipitation data has been available since the 1970s. Historical climatology is the study of historical changes in climate and their effect on human history and development. The primary sources include written records such as sagas, chronicles, maps and local history literature as well as pictorial representations such as paintings, drawings and even rock art. 

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns. Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the rise and also the collapse of various civilizations.

Proxy measurements

Various archives of past climate are present in rocks, trees and fossils. From these archive, indirect measures of climate, so-called proxies, can be derived. Quantification of climatological variation of precipitation in prior centuries and epochs is less complete but approximated using proxies such as marine sediments, ice cores, cave stalagmites, and tree rings. Stress, too little precipitation or unsuitable temperatures, can alter the growth rate of trees, which allows scientists to infer climate trends by analyzing the growth rate of tree rings. This branch of science studying this called dendroclimatology. Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material—including organic matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated—recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated.

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from an ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO₂ variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO₂ over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions. The ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratio in calcite and ice core samples used to deduce ocean temperature in the distant past is an example of a temperature proxy method, as are other climate metrics noted in subsequent categories.

The remnants of plants, and specifically pollen, are also used to study climatic change. Plant distributions varies under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate. As an example, pollen studies have been used to track changing vegetation patterns throughout the Quaternary glaciations and especially since the last glacial maximum. Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.

Consequences of climate change

All elements of the climate system portray changes as a consequence of climate change.

Changes in the cryosphere

Glaciers and ice sheets

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures increase, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt. Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability in temperature, precipitation and hydrology can strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. 

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years. Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing.

Sea level change

During the Last Glacial Maximum, some 25,000 years ago, sea levels were roughly 130 m lower than today. The deglaciation afterwards was characterized by rapid sea level change. The deglaciations at the end of The deglaciation that took place In the early Pliocene, global temperatures were 1–2˚C warmer than the present temperature, yet sea level was 15–25 meters higher than today.

Sea ice

Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate as it affects the total amount of sunlight that is reflected away from the Earth. In the past, the Earth's oceans have been almost entirely covered by sea ice on a number of occasions, when the Earth was in a so-called Snowball Earth state, and completely ice-free in periods of warm climate. When there is a lot of sea ice present globally, especially in the tropics and subtropics, the climate is more sensitive to forcings as the ice–albedo feedback is very strong.

Flora and fauna

Top: Arid ice age climateMiddle: Atlantic Period, warm and wetBottom: Potential vegetation in climate now if not for human effects like agriculture.

Vegetation

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate. Some changes in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO₂. The effects are expected to affect the rate of many natural cycles like plant litter decomposition rates. A gradual increase in warmth in a region will lead to earlier flowering and fruiting times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of dependent organisms. Conversely, cold will cause plant bio-cycles to lag.

Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances. An example of this occurred during the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse (CRC), an extinction event 300 million years ago. At this time vast rainforests covered the equatorial region of Europe and America. Climate change devastated these tropical rainforests, abruptly fragmenting the habitat into isolated 'islands' and causing the extinction of many plant and animal species.

Fauna

One of the most important ways animals can deal with climatic change is migration to warmer or colder regions. On a longer timescale, evolution makes ecosystems including animals better adapted to a new climate. Rapid or large climate change can cause mass extinctions when creatures are stretched too far to be able to adapt.

Past and modern climate change

Examples of past change

Climatological temperatures substantially affect cloud cover and precipitation. At lower temperatures, air can hold less water vapour, which can lead to decreased precipitation. For instance, during the Last Glacial Maximum of 18,000 years ago, thermal-driven evaporation from the oceans onto continental landmasses was low, causing large areas of extreme desert, including polar deserts (cold but with low rates of cloud cover and precipitation). In contrast, the world's climate was cloudier and wetter than today near the start of the warm Atlantic Period of 8000 years ago. Notable climate events known to paleoclimatology are provided in this list of periods and events in climate history.

Paleo-Eocene Thermal maximum

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a time period with more than 5–8 °C global average temperature rise across the event. This climate event occurred at the time boundary of the Paleocene and Eocene geological epochs. During the event large amounts of methane was released, a potent greenhouse gas. The PETM represents a "case study" for modern climate change as in the greenhouse gases were released in a geologically relatively short amount of time. During the PETM, a mass extinction of organisms in the deep ocean took place.

Modern climate change and global warming

As a consequence of humans emitting greenhouse gases, global surface temperatures have started rising (global warming). Global warming is an aspect of modern climate change, a term that also includes the observed changes in precipitation, storm tracks and cloudiness. As a consequence, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly Data from NASA's Grace satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica (upper chart) and Greenland (lower) have been losing mass since 2002. Both ice sheets have seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009. Global sea levels have been rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and ice melt. The decline in Arctic sea ice, both in extent and thickness, over the last several decades is further evidence for rapid climate change.

Climatology

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Climatology is the scientific study of the climate.

 

Climatology (from Greek κλίμα, klima, "place, zone"; and -λογία, -logia) or climate science is the scientific study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time. This modern field of study is regarded as a branch of the atmospheric sciences and a subfield of physical geography, which is one of the Earth sciences. Climatology now includes aspects of oceanography and biogeochemistry. 

The main methods employed by climatologists is the analysis of observations and modelling the physical laws that determine the climate. The main topics of research are the study of climate variability, mechanisms of climate changes and modern climate change. Basic knowledge of climate can be used within shorter term weather forecasting, for instance about climatic cycles such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). 

Climate models are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system to projections of future climate. Weather is known as the condition of the atmosphere over a period of time, while climate has to do with the atmospheric condition over an extended to indefinite period of time.

History

The Greeks began the formal study of climate; in fact the word climate is derived from the Greek word klima, meaning "slope," referring to the slope or inclination of the Earth's axis. Arguably the most influential classic text on climate was On Airs, Water and Places written by Hippocrates around 400 BCE. This work commented on the effect of climate on human health and cultural differences between Asia and Europe. This idea that climate controls which countries excel depending on their climate, or climatic determinism, remained influential throughout history. Chinese scientist Shen Kuo (1031–1095) inferred that climates naturally shifted over an enormous span of time, after observing petrified bamboos found underground near Yanzhou (modern day Yan'an, Shaanxi province), a dry-climate area unsuitable for the growth of bamboo.

The invention of the thermometer and the barometer during the Scientific Revolution allowed for systematic recordkeeping, that began as early as 1640 in England. Early climate researchers include Edmund Halley, who published a map of the trade winds in 1686 after a voyage to the southern hemisphere. Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790) first mapped the course of the Gulf Stream for use in sending mail from the United States to Europe. Francis Galton (1822–1911) invented the term anticyclone. Helmut Landsberg (1906–1985) fostered the use of statistical analysis in climatology, which led to its evolution into a physical science.

In the early 20th century, climatology was mostly focused on the description of regional climates. This descriptive climatology was mainly an applied science, giving farmers and other interested people statistics about what the normal weather was and how big chances were of extreme events. To do this, climatologists had to define a climate normal, or an average of weather and weather extremes over a period of typically 30 years.

Around the middle of the 20th century, many assumptions in meteorology and climatology considered climate to be roughly constant. While scientists knew of past climate change such as the ice ages, the concept of climate as unchanging was useful in the development of a general theory of what determines climate. This started to change in the decades that followed, and while the history of climate change science started earlier, climate change only became one of the mean topics of study for climatologists in the seventies and onward.

Subfields

Map of the average temperature over 30 years. Data sets formed from the long-term average of historical weather parameters are sometimes called a "climatology".

 

Various subfields of climatology study different aspects of the climate. There are different categorizations of the fields in climatology. The American Meteorological Society for instance identifies descriptive climatology, scientific climatology and applied climatology as the three subcategories of climatology, a categorization based on the complexity and the purpose of the research. Applied climatologists apply their expertise to different industries such as manufacturing and agriculture.

Paleoclimatology seeks to reconstruct and understand past climates by examining records such as ice cores and tree rings (dendroclimatology). Paleotempestology uses these same records to help determine hurricane frequency over millennia. Historical climatology is the study of climate as related to human history and thus focuses only on the last few thousand years. 

Boundary-layer climatology is preoccupied with exchanges in water, energy and momentum near the surface. Further identified subfields are physical climatology, dynamic climatology, tornado climatology, regional climatology, bioclimatology, applied climatology, and synoptic climatology. The study of the hydrological cycle at long time scales (hydroclimatology) is further subdivided within the subfields of snow climatology and hail climatology.

Methods

The study of contemporary climates incorporates meteorological data accumulated over many years, such as records of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric composition. Knowledge of the atmosphere and its dynamics is also embodied in models, either statistical or mathematical, which help by integrating different observations and testing how they fit together. Modeling is used for understanding past, present and potential future climates.

Climate research is made difficult by the large scale, long time periods, and complex processes which govern climate. Climate is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as differential equations. These equations are coupled and nonlinear, so that approximate solutions are obtained by using numerical methods to create global climate models. Climate is sometimes modeled as a stochastic process but this is generally accepted as an approximation to processes that are otherwise too complicated to analyze.

Climate data

The collection of long record of climate variables is essential for the study of climate. Climatology deals with the aggregate data that meteorology has collected. As measuring technology changes over time, records of data cannot be compared directly. As cities are generally warmer than the surrounding areas, urbanization has made it necessary to constantly correct data for this urban heat island effect.

Models

Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system to projections of future climate. All climate models balance, or very nearly balance, incoming energy as short wave (including visible) electromagnetic radiation to the earth with outgoing energy as long wave (infrared) electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any unbalance results in a change in the average temperature of the earth. Most climate models include the radiative effects of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. These models predict an upward trend in the surface temperatures, as well as a more rapid increase in temperature at higher latitudes.

Models can range from relatively simple to complex:

• A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy
• this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally
• Coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.
• Earth system models further include the biosphere.

Topics of research

Topics that climatologists study fall roughly into three categories: climate variability, mechanisms of climate change and modern climate change.

Climatological processes

Various factors impact the average state of the atmosphere at a particular location. For instance, midlatitudes will have a pronounced seasonal cycle in temperature whereas tropical regions show little variation in temperature over the year. Another major control in climate is continentality: the distance to major water bodies such as oceans. Oceans act as a moderating factor, so that land close to it has typically has mild winters and moderate summers. The atmosphere interacts with other spheres of the climate system, with winds generating ocean currents that transport heat around the globe.

Climate classification

Classification is an important aspect of many sciences as a tool of simplifying complicated processes. Different climate classifications have been developed over the centuries, with the first ones in Ancient Greece. How climates are classified depends on what the application is. A wind energy producer will require different information (wind) in the classification than somebody interested in agriculture, for who precipitation and temperature are more important. The most widely used classification, the Köppen climate classification, was developed in the late nineteenth century and is based on vegatation. It uses monthly temperature and precipitation data.

Climate variability

El Niño impacts

 

There are different modes of variability: recurring patterns of temperature or other climate variables. They are quantified with different indices. Much in the way the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is based on the stock prices of 30 companies, is used to represent the fluctuations in the stock market as a whole, climate indices are used to represent the essential elements of climate. Climate indices are generally devised with the twin objectives of simplicity and completeness, and each index typically represents the status and timing of the climate factor it represents. By their very nature, indices are simple, and combine many details into a generalized, overall description of the atmosphere or ocean which can be used to characterize the factors which impact the global climate system. 

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean responsible for most of the global variability in temperature, and has a cycle between two and seven years. The North Atlantic oscillation is a mode of variability that is mainly contained to the lower atmosphere, the troposphere. The layer of atmosphere above, the stratosphere is also capable of creating its own variability, most importantly in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which has a cycle of approximately 30-60 days. The interdecadal pacific oscillation can create changes in the pacific ocean and lower atmosphere on decadal time scales.

Climatic change

Climate change occurs when changes in Earth's climate system result in new weather patterns that remain in place for an extended period of time. This length of time can be as short as a few decades to as long as millions of years. The climate system receives nearly all of its energy from the sun. The climate system also gives off energy to outer space. The balance of incoming and outgoing energy, and the passage of the energy through the climate system, determines Earth's energy budget. When the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, earth's energy budget is positive and the climate system is warming. If more energy goes out, the energy budget is negative and earth experiences cooling. Climate change also influences the average sea level.

Modern climate change is driven by the human emissions of greenhouse gas from the burning of fossil fuel driving up global mean surface temperatures. Rising temperatures are only one aspect of modern climate change though, with includes observed changes in precipitation, storm tracks and cloudiness. Warmer temperatures are driving further changes in the climate system, such as the widespread melt of glaciers, sea level rise and shifts in flora and fauna.

Differences with meteorology

In contrast to meteorology, which focuses on short term weather systems lasting up to a few weeks, climatology studies the frequency and trends of those systems. It studies the periodicity of weather events over years to millennia, as well as changes in long-term average weather patterns, in relation to atmospheric conditions. Climatologists study both the nature of climates – local, regional or global – and the natural or human-induced factors that cause climates to change. Climatology considers the past and can help predict future climate change.

Phenomena of climatological interest include the atmospheric boundary layer, circulation patterns, heat transfer (radiative, convective and latent), interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans and land surface (particularly vegetation, land use and topography), and the chemical and physical composition of the atmosphere.

Use in weather forecasting

A more complicated way of making a forecast, the analog technique requires remembering a previous weather event which is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event. What makes it a difficult technique to use is that there is rarely a perfect analog for an event in the future. Some call this type of forecasting pattern recognition, which remains a useful method of observing rainfall over data voids such as oceans with knowledge of how satellite imagery relates to precipitation rates over land, as well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution in the future. A variation on this theme is used in Medium Range forecasting, which is known as teleconnections, when you use systems in other locations to help pin down the location of another system within the surrounding regime. One method of using teleconnections are by using climate indices such as ENSO-related phenomena.

Watts Up With That?

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Watts Up With That?

Type of site	Blog
Created by	Anthony Watts
Website	wattsupwiththat.com
Alexa rank	27,425 (on 2015-09-05)
Launched	November 17, 2006

Watts Up With That? (WUWT) is a blog promoting climate change denial that was created by Anthony Watts in 2006.

The blog predominantly discusses climate issues with a focus on anthropogenic climate change, generally accommodating beliefs that are in opposition to the scientific consensus on climate change. Contributors include Christopher Monckton and Fred Singer as guest authors. In November 2009, the blog was one of the first websites to publish emails and documents from the Climatic Research Unit controversy, and a driving force behind its coverage.

In the early months of 2010, it was reported the site might be "the most read climate blog in the world," and in 2013 Michael E. Mann referred to it as the leading climate change denial blog.

Content

Watts Up With That features material disputing the scientific consensus on climate change, including claims the human role in global warming is insignificant and carbon dioxide is not a driving force of warming. It hosts several contributors, such as Christopher Monckton and Fred Singer, in addition to Watts. It is among the most prominent climate change denial blogs, and is described by climatologist Michael E. Mann as the most popular, having surpassed Climate Audit. Columbia Journalism School writer Curtis Brainard has written that "scientists have repeatedly criticized [Watts] for misleading readers on subjects such as the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record."

Temperature records

In 2007 WUWT readers alerted Stephen McIntyre to a discrepancy in temperature records published by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) based on data from United States Historical Climate Network. In August 2007, McIntyre notified GISS about the problematic numbers, which GISS acknowledged and promptly corrected. The change did not affect global temperature trends, but did have the marginal effect of changing the hottest year on record for the contiguous United States to 1934, rather than 1998 as had previously been shown. In a formal acknowledgement, GISS stated that the minor data processing error had only affected the years after 2000, and noted that the contiguous United States represents only 1.6% of the Earth's surface. The result was a statistical tie between the years 1934, 1998 and 2005 as the warmest years to date for these U.S. states, with 1934 warmest by only around 0.01 °C which was well within the margin of uncertainty.

Involvement in the Climatic Research Unit email controversy

In 2009, Watts Up With That was involved in popularizing the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, wherein emails of several climatologists were published by a hacker. The story was initially broken on WUWT and two other blogs when the hacker posted a link to a Russian server containing emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and subsequently reproduced on the WUWT blog. Because of WUWT's high traffic count, this was the catalyst which broke the story to the media. The term "Climategate" was originally coined by a commenter in a post on WUWT.

Watts argued that the emails showed the scientists were manipulating data, and while a series of independent investigations cleared the scientists of any wrongdoing, public accusations resulting from the event continued for years. The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged throughout the investigations, however, the reports may have decreased public confidence in climate scientists and the IPCC, and conclusively altered the Copenhagen negotiations that year.

In a 2010 interview with the Financial Times, Watts said that his blog had become "busier than ever" after the incident and that traffic to the site had tripled.

Reception

According to Alexa internet statistical analysis, What's Up With That? is ranked No. 14,882 in the U.S. and No. 40,090 world-wide. It is reported to receive between half a million and 2 million visits per month between 2010 and 2014. It was described by climatologist Michael E. Mann in The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars as "the leading climate change denial blog," having surpassed Climate Audit in popularity. 

Watts's blog has been criticized for inaccuracy. The Guardian columnist George Monbiot described WUWT as "highly partisan and untrustworthy". Leo Hickman, at The Guardian's Environment Blog, also criticized Watts's blog, stating that Watts "risks polluting his legitimate scepticism about the scientific processes and methodologies underpinning climate science with his accompanying politicised commentary."

Between 2008 and 2013, WUWT asked its readers to vote in several internet voting-based awards, and it won "best science blog" and "best blog" from the Bloggies and the conservative Wizbang Weblog Awards. In 2013, Leo Hickman wrote in The Guardian Environment Blog that 13 of the 17 blogs nominated for the Science or Technology category for the Bloggies "were either run by climate sceptics, or popular with climate sceptics". The Bloggies founder acknowledged in 2013 that "climate sceptic" bloggers had influenced voting. He said "Unfortunately, I have no good solution for it, since they follow proper voting procedures and legitimate science blogs don't want to make an effort to compete." He discontinued the science category in 2014. WUWT did not win "Best Topical Weblog of the Year" 2014 as Watts claimed, but did enter the Hall of Fame that year.

List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Nearly all publishing climate scientists (97–98%) are convinced by the evidence that humans are significantly contributing to global warming.

 

This is a list of scientists who have made statements that conflict with the scientific consensus on global warming as summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and endorsed by other scientific bodies. A minority are climatologists. Nearly all publishing climate scientists (97–98%) support the consensus on anthropogenic climate change.

The scientific consensus is that the global average surface temperature has risen over the past century. Scientific opinion on climate change was summarized in the 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The main conclusions on global warming at that time were as follows:

1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the years 1971–2001.
2. "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities", in particular emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.
3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the warming will also continue, with temperatures projected to increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature increase will be increases in some types of extreme weather and a projected sea level rise. The balance of impacts of global warming become significantly negative at larger values of warming.

These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized nations; the consensus has strengthened over time and is now virtually unanimous. The level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.

There have been several efforts to compile lists of dissenting scientists, including a 2008 US senate minority report, the Oregon Petition, and a 2007 list by the Heartland Institute, all three of which have been criticized on a number of grounds.

For the purpose of this list, a "scientist" is defined as an individual who has published at least one peer-reviewed research article in the broad field of natural sciences, although not necessarily in a field relevant to climatology. Since the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, each has made a clear statement in his or her own words (as opposed to the name being found on a petition, etc.) disagreeing with one or more of the report's three main conclusions, and each has been described in reliable sources as a climate skeptic, denier, or in disagreement with any of the three main conclusions. Their views on climate change are usually described in more detail in their biographical articles. Few of the statements in the references for this list are part of the peer-reviewed scientific literature; most are from other sources such as interviews, opinion pieces, online essays and presentations. 

Nota bene: Only individuals who have their own Wikipedia article may be included in the list.

Scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projections

These scientists have said that it is not possible to project global climate accurately enough to justify the ranges projected for temperature and sea-level rise over the 21st century. They may not conclude specifically that the current IPCC projections are either too high or too low, but that the projections are likely to be inaccurate due to inadequacies of current global climate modeling. 

Australia

• Craig Loehle, ecologist and chief scientist at the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement.
• Garth Paltridge, retired chief research scientist, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and retired director of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre, visiting fellow Australian National University.

Canada

• Susan Crockford, Zoologist, adjunct professor in Anthropology at the University of Victoria.
• Ross McKitrick, professor of economics and CBE chair in sustainable commerce, University of Guelph.
• Patrick Moore, former president of Greenpeace Canada.
• Denis Rancourt, former professor of physics at University of Ottawa, research scientist in condensed matter physics, and in environmental and soil science.

Germany

• Fritz Vahrenholt, German politician and energy executive with a doctorate in chemistry.

Netherlands

• Hendrik Tennekes, retired director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Norway

• Ivar Giaever, Norwegian–American physicist and Nobel laureate in physics (1973).
• Steven E. Koonin, theoretical physicist and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.

Sweden

• Nils-Axel Mörner, retired head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, former chairman of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999–2003).
• Peter Stilbs, professor of physical chemistry at Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.

United Kingdom

• David Bellamy, botanist.
• Lennart Bengtsson, meteorologist, Reading University.
• Piers Corbyn, owner of the business WeatherAction which makes weather forecasts.
• Michael J. Kelly, Prince Phillip Professor of Technology at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University.
• Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London.

United States

• Judith Curry, professor and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
• Robert E. Davis, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia.
• Joseph D'Aleo, past Chairman American Meteorological Society's Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, former Professor of Meteorology, Lyndon State College.
• Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study; Fellow of the Royal Society.
• Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan emeritus professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences.
• Harrison Schmitt, geologist, Apollo 17 astronaut, former US senator.
• Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Scientists arguing that global warming is primarily caused by natural processes

Graph showing the ability with which a global climate model is able to reconstruct the historical temperature record, and the degree to which those temperature changes can be decomposed into various forcing factors. It shows the effects of five forcing factors: greenhouse gases, man-made sulfate emissions, solar variability, ozone changes, and volcanic emissions.

 

These scientists have said that the observed warming is more likely to be attributable to natural causes than to human activities. Their views on climate change are usually described in more detail in their biographical articles.

Australia

• William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology.
• Jennifer Marohasy, an Australian biologist, former director of the Australian Environment Foundation.

Canada

• Timothy Ball, historical climatologist, and retired professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg.
• Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa.
• Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa.
• Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and professor of geology at Carleton University in Canada. Ian Plimer, professor emeritus of mining geology, the University of Adelaide.
• Jan Veizer, environmental geochemist, professor emeritus from University of Ottawa.

Denmark

• Henrik Svensmark, physicist, Danish National Space Center.

France

• Vincent Courtillot, geophysicist, member of the French Academy of Sciences.

Israel

• Nir Shaviv, professor of physics focusing on astrophysics and climate science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Mexico

• Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, Theoretical Physicist and Researcher, Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

New Zealand

• Doug Edmeades, soil scientist, officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit.

Norway

• Ole Humlum, professor of geology at the University of Oslo.

Russia

• Khabibullo Abdusamatov, astrophysicist at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Sweden

• Wibjörn Karlén, professor emeritus of geography and geology at the University of Stockholm.
• Tom Segalstad, geologist; associate professor at University of Oslo.

United States

• Sallie Baliunas, retired astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
• David Douglass, solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester.
• Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University.
• William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy; emeritus professor, Princeton University.
• David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware.
• Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Missouri.
• Arthur B. Robinson, American politician, biochemist and former faculty member at the University of California, San Diego.
• Murry Salby, atmospheric scientist, former professor at Macquarie University and University of Colorado.
• Nicola Scafetta, research scientist in the physics department at Duke University.
• Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.
• Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
• Roy Spencer, meteorologist; principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville.
• George H. Taylor, retired director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University.

Scientists arguing that the cause of global warming is unknown

These scientists have said that no principal cause can be ascribed to the observed rising temperatures, whether man-made or natural.

France

• Claude Allègre, French politician; geochemist, emeritus professor at Institute of Geophysics (Paris).

Italy

• Antonino Zichichi, emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bologna and president of the World Federation of Scientists.

Norway

• Pål Brekke, solar astrophysicist, senior advisor Norwegian Space Centre.

United States

• Syun-Ichi Akasofu, retired professor of geophysics and founding director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
• Robert Balling, a professor of geography at Arizona State University.
• John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports.
• Petr Chylek, space and remote sensing sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory.
• David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma.
• Stanley B. Goldenberg a meteorologist with NOAA/AOML's Hurricane Research Division.
• Keith E. Idso, botanist, former adjunct professor of biology at Maricopa County Community College District and the vice president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change^.
•  
• Kary Mullis, 1993 Nobel laureate in chemistry, inventor of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method.

Scientists arguing that global warming will have few negative consequences

These scientists have said that projected rising temperatures will be of little impact or a net positive for society or the environment.

• Indur M. Goklany, electrical engineer, science and technology policy analyst for the United States Department of the Interior.
• Craig D. Idso, geographer, faculty researcher, Office of Climatology, Arizona State University and founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.
• Sherwood B. Idso, former research physicist, USDA Water Conservation Laboratory, and adjunct professor, Arizona State University.
• Patrick Michaels, senior fellow at the Cato Institute and retired research professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia.

Deceased scientists

These scientists published material indicating their opposition to the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming prior to their deaths.

• August H. "Augie" Auer Jr. (1940–2007), retired New Zealand MetService meteorologist and past professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wyoming.
• Reid Bryson (1920–2008), emeritus professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison.
• Robert M. Carter (1942–2016), former head of the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook University.
• Chris de Freitas (1948–2017), associate professor, School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland.
• Vincent R. Gray (1922–2018), New Zealand physical chemist with expertise in coal ashes.
• William M. Gray (1929–2016), professor emeritus and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.
• Yuri Izrael (1930–2014), former chairman, Committee for Hydrometeorology (USSR); former director, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (Russian Academy of Science); vice-chairman of IPCC, 2001–2007.
• Robert Jastrow (1925–2008), American astronomer, physicist, cosmologist and leading NASA scientist who, together with Fred Seitz and William Nierenberg, established the George C. Marshall Institute.
• Harold ("Hal") Warren Lewis (1923–2011), emeritus professor of physics and former department chairman at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
• Frederick Seitz (1911–2008), solid-state physicist, former president of the National Academy of Sciences and co-founder of the George C. Marshall Institute in 1984.