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Thursday, February 15, 2024

Food security

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A woman selling produce at a market in Lilongwe, Malawi

Food security is the availability of food in a country (or a geographic region) and the ability of individuals within that country (region) to access, afford, and source adequate foodstuff. The availability of food irrespective of class, gender or region is another element of food security. Similarly, household food security is considered to exist when all the members of a family, at all times, have access to enough food for an active, healthy life. Individuals who are food secure do not live in hunger or fear of starvation. Food insecurity, on the other hand, is defined as a situation of " limited or uncertain availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods or limited or uncertain ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways." Food security incorporates a measure of resilience to future disruption or unavailability of critical food supply due to various risk factors including droughts, shipping disruptions, fuel shortages, economic instability, and wars.

The four pillars of food security include: availability, access, utilization, and stability. The concept of food security has evolved to recognize the centrality of agency and sustainability, along with the four other dimensions of availability, access, utilization, and stability. These six dimensions of food security are reinforced in conceptual and legal understandings of the right to food. The 1996 World Summit on Food Security declared that "food should not be used as an instrument for political and economic pressure."

The International Monetary Fund cautioned in September 2022 that "the impact of increasing import costs for food and fertilizer for those extremely vulnerable to food insecurity will add $9 billion to their balance of payments pressures – in 2022 and 2023." This would deplete countries' foreign reserves as well as their capacity to pay for food and fertilizer imports."

Definition

Food security is defined as "when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" by the World Food Summit in 1996.

Food insecurity, on the other hand, is defined by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) as a situation of "limited or uncertain availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods or limited or uncertain ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways."

At the 1974 World Food Conference, the term "food security" was defined with an emphasis on supply; food security was defined as the "availability at all times of adequate, nourishing, diverse, balanced and moderate world food supplies of basic foodstuff to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset the fluctuations in production and prices." Later definitions added demand and access issues to the definition. The first World Food Summit, held in 1996, stated that food security "exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life."

Chronic (or permanent) food insecurity is defined as the long-term, persistent lack of adequate food. In this case, households are constantly at risk of being unable to acquire food to meet the needs of all members. Chronic and transitory food insecurity are linked since the reoccurrence of transitory food security can make households more vulnerable to chronic food insecurity.

As of 2015, the concept of food security has mostly focused on food calories rather than the quality and nutrition of food. The concept of nutrition security or nutritional security evolved as a broader concept. In 1995, it has been defined as "adequate nutritional status in terms of protein, energy, vitamins, and minerals for all household members at all times." It is also related to the concepts of nutrition education and nutritional deficiency.

Measurement

Globally and in every region, the prevalence of food insecurity is higher among women than among men

Food security can be measured by calories to digest to intake per person per day, available on a household budget. In general, the objective of food security indicators and measurements is to capture some or all of the main components of food security in terms of food availability, accessibility, and utilization/adequacy. While availability (production and supply) and utilization/adequacy (nutritional status/ anthropometric measurement) are easier to estimate and therefore, more popular, accessibility (the ability to acquire a sufficient quantity and quality of food) remains largely elusive. The factors influencing household food accessibility are often context-specific.

FAO has developed the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) as a universally applicable experience-based food security measurement scale derived from the scale used in the United States. Thanks to the establishment of a global reference scale and the procedure needed to calibrate measures obtained in different countries, it is possible to use the FIES to produce cross-country comparable estimates of the prevalence of food insecurity in the population. Since 2015, the FIES has been adopted as the basis to compile one of the indicators included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) monitoring framework.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) collaborate every year to produce The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, or SOFI report (known as The State of Food Insecurity in the World until 2015).

The SOFI report measures chronic hunger (or undernourishment) using two main indicators, the Number of undernourished (NoU) and the Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU). Beginning in the early 2010s, FAO incorporated more complex metrics into its calculations, including estimates of food losses in retail distribution for each country and the volatility in agri-food systems. Since 2016, it also reports the Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity based on the FIES.

Several measurements have been developed to capture the access component of food security, with some notable examples developed by the USAID-funded Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance (FANTA) project. These include:

  • Household Food Insecurity Access Scale – measures the degree of food insecurity (inaccessibility) in the household in the previous month on a discrete ordinal scale.
  • Household Dietary Diversity Scale – measures the number of different food groups consumed over a specific reference period (24hrs/48hrs/7days).
  • Household Hunger Scale – measures the experience of household food deprivation based on a set of predictable reactions, captured through a survey and summarized in a scale.
  • Coping Strategies Index (CSI) – assesses household behaviors and rates them based on a set of varied established behaviors on how households cope with food shortages. The methodology for this research is based on collecting data on a single question: "What do you do when you do not have enough food, and do not have enough money to buy food?"

Prevalence of food insecurity

The concentration and distribution of food insecurity in 2023 by severity differ greatly across the regions of the world.
Number of people affected by undernourishment in 2010–12 (by region, in millions)
Number of severely food insecure people by region (2014–2018)
Food insecurity levels by region and sex (2022)

Close to 12 percent of the global population was severely food insecure in 2020, representing 928 million people – 148 million more than in 2019. A variety of reasons lies behind the increase in hunger over the past few years. Slowdowns and downturns since the 2008-9 financial crisis have conspired to degrade social conditions, making undernourishment more prevalent. Structural imbalances and a lack of inclusive policies have combined with extreme weather events; altered environmental conditions; and the spread of pests and diseases, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering stubborn cycles of poverty and hunger. In 2019, the high cost of healthy diets together with persistently high levels of income inequality put healthy diets out of reach for around 3 billion people, especially the poor, in every region of the world.

Inequality in the distributions of assets, resources and income, compounded by the absence or scarcity of welfare provisions in the poorest of countries, is further undermining access to food. Nearly a tenth of the world population still lives on US$1.90 or less a day, with sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia the regions most affected.

High import and export dependence ratios are meanwhile making many countries more vulnerable to external shocks. In many low-income economies, debt has swollen to levels far exceeding GDP, eroding growth prospects.

Finally, there are increasing risks to institutional stability, persistent violence, and large-scale population relocation as a consequence of the conflicts. With the majority of them being hosted in developing nations, the number of displaced individuals between 2010 and 2018 increased by 70% between 2010 and 2018 to reach 70.8 million.

Recent editions of the SOFI report (The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World) present evidence that the decades-long decline in hunger in the world, as measured by the number of undernourished (NoU), has ended. In the 2020 report, FAO used newly accessible data from China to revise the global NoU downwards to nearly 690 million, or 8.9 percent of the world population – but having recalculated the historic hunger series accordingly, it confirmed that the number of hungry people in the world, albeit lower than previously thought, had been slowly increasing since 2014. On broader measures, the SOFI report found that far more people suffered some form of food insecurity, with 3 billion or more unable to afford even the cheapest healthy diet. Nearly 2.37 billion people did not have access to adequate food in 2020 – an increase of 320 million people compared to 2019.

FAO's 2021 edition of The State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) further estimates that an additional 1 billion people (mostly in lower- and upper-middle-income countries) are at risk of not affording a healthy diet if a shock were to reduce their income by a third.

The 2021 edition of the SOFI report estimated the hunger excess linked to the COVID-19 pandemic at 30 million people by the end of the decade – FAO had earlier warned that even without the pandemic, the world was off track to achieve Zero Hunger or Goal 2 of the Sustainable Development Goals – it further found that already in the first year of the pandemic, the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) had increased 1.5 percentage points, reaching a level of around 9.9 percent. This is the mid-point of an estimate of 720 to 811 million people facing hunger in 2020 – as many as 161 million more than in 2019. The number had jumped by some 446 million in Africa, 57 million in Asia, and about 14 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.

At the global level, the prevalence of food insecurity at a moderate or severe level, and severe level only, is higher among women than men, magnified in rural areas.

Vulnerable groups most affected

Children

Food insecurity in children can lead to developmental impairments and long term consequences such as weakened physical, intellectual and emotional development.

By way of comparison, in one of the largest food producing countries in the world, the United States, approximately one out of six people are "food insecure," including 17 million children, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2009. A 2012 study in the Journal of Applied Research on Children found that rates of food security varied significantly by race, class and education. In both kindergarten and third grade, 8% of the children were classified as food insecure, but only 5% of white children were food insecure, while 12% and 15% of black and Hispanic children were food insecure, respectively. In third grade, 13% of black and 11% of Hispanic children were food insecure compared to 5% of white children.

Women

A Kenyan woman farmer at work in the Mount Kenya region

Gender inequality both leads to and is a result of food insecurity. According to estimates, girls and women make up 60% of the world's chronically hungry and little progress has been made in ensuring the equal right to food for women enshrined in the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women.

At the global level, the gender gap in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity grew even larger in the year of COVID-19 pandemic. The 2021 SOFI report finds that in 2019 an estimated 29.9 percent of women aged between 15 and 49 years around the world were affected by anemia – now a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator (2.2.3).

The gap in food insecurity between men and women widened from 1.7 percentage points in 2019 to 4.3 percentage points in 2021.

Women play key roles in maintaining all four pillars of food security: as food producers and agricultural entrepreneurs; as decision-makers for the food and nutritional security of their households and communities and as "managers" of the stability of food supplies in times of economic hardship.

The gender gap in accessing food increased from 2018 to 2019, particularly at moderate or severe levels.

History

Bengali famine, 1943. The Japanese conquest of Burma cut off India's main supply of rice imports.

Famines have been frequent in world history. Some have killed millions and substantially diminished the population of a large area. The most common causes have been drought and war, but the greatest famines in history were caused by economic policy. One economic policy example of famine was the Holodomor (Great Famine) induced by the Soviet Union's communist economic policy resulting in 7–10 million deaths.

In the late 20th century the Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen observed that "there is no such thing as an apolitical food problem." While drought and other naturally occurring events may trigger famine conditions, it is government action or inaction that determines its severity, and often even whether or not a famine will occur. The 20th century has examples of governments, such as Collectivization in the Soviet Union or the Great Leap Forward in the People's Republic of China undermining the food security of their nations. Mass starvation is frequently a weapon of war, as in the blockade of Germany in World War I and World War II, the Battle of the Atlantic, and the blockade of Japan during World War I and World War II and in the Hunger Plan enacted by Nazi Germany.

Pillars of food security

Growth in food production has been greater than population growth. Food per person increased since 1961. Data source: Food and Agriculture Organization.
Growth of World Food Supply (caloric base) per capita

The WHO states that three pillars that determine food security: food availability, food access, and food use and misuse. The FAO added a fourth pillar: the stability of the first three dimensions of food security over time. In 2009, the World Summit on Food Security stated that the "four pillars of food security are availability, access, utilization, and stability." Two additional pillars of food security were recommended in 2020 by the High-Level Panel of Experts for the Committee on World Food Security: agency and sustainability.

Availability

Food availability relates to the supply of food through production, distribution, and exchange. Food production is determined by a variety of factors including land ownership and use; soil management; crop selection, breeding, and management; livestock breeding and management; and harvesting. Crop production can be affected by changes in rainfall and temperatures. The use of land, water, and energy to grow food often compete with other uses, which can affect food production. Land used for agriculture can be used for urbanization or lost to desertification, salinization or soil erosion due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Crop production is not required for a country to achieve food security. Nations do not have to have the natural resources required to produce crops to achieve food security, as seen in the examples of Japan and Singapore.

Because food consumers outnumber producers in every country, food must be distributed to different regions or nations. Food distribution involves the storage, processing, transport, packaging, and marketing of food. Food-chain infrastructure and storage technologies on farms can also affect the amount of food wasted in the distribution process. Poor transport infrastructure can increase the price of supplying water and fertilizer as well as the price of moving food to national and global markets. Around the world, few individuals or households are continuously self-reliant on food. This creates the need for a bartering, exchange, or cash economy to acquire food. The exchange of food requires efficient trading systems and market institutions, which can affect food security. Per capita world food supplies are more than adequate to provide food security to all, and thus food accessibility is a greater barrier to achieving food security.

Access

Goats are an important part of the solution to global food security because they are fairly low-maintenance and easy to raise and farm.

Food access refers to the affordability and allocation of food, as well as the preferences of individuals and households. The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights noted that the causes of hunger and malnutrition are often not a scarcity of food but an inability to access available food, usually due to poverty. Poverty can limit access to food, and can also increase how vulnerable an individual or household is to food price spikes. Access depends on whether the household has enough income to purchase food at prevailing prices or has sufficient land and other resources to grow its food. Households with enough resources can overcome unstable harvests and local food shortages and maintain their access to food.

There are two distinct types of access to food: direct access, in which a household produces food using human and material resources, and economic access, in which a household purchases food produced elsewhere. Location can affect access to food and which type of access a family will rely on. The assets of a household, including income, land, products of labor, inheritances, and gifts can determine a household's access to food. However, the ability to access sufficient food may not lead to the purchase of food over other materials and services. Demographics and education levels of members of the household as well as the gender of the household head determine the preferences of the household, which influences the type of food that is purchased. A household's access to adequate nutritious food may not assure adequate food intake for all household members, as intrahousehold food allocation may not sufficiently meet the requirements of each member of the household. The USDA adds that access to food must be available in socially acceptable ways, without, for example, resorting to emergency food supplies, scavenging, stealing, or other coping strategies.

The monetary value of global food exports multiplied by 4.4 in nominal terms between 2000 and 2021, from USD 380 billion in 2000 to USD 1.66 trillion in 2021.

Utilization

The next pillar of food security is food utilization, which refers to the metabolism of food by individuals. Once the food is obtained by a household, a variety of factors affect the quantity and quality of food that reaches members of the household. To achieve food security, the food ingested must be safe and must be enough to meet the physiological requirements of each individual. Food safety affects food utilization, and can be affected by the preparation, processing, and cooking of food in the community and household.

Nutritional values of the household determine food choice, and whether food meets cultural preferences is important to utilization in terms of psychological and social well-being. Access to healthcare is another determinant of food utilization since the health of individuals controls how the food is metabolized. For example, intestinal parasites can take nutrients from the body and decrease food utilization. Sanitation can also decrease the occurrence and spread of diseases that can affect food utilization. Education about nutrition and food preparation can affect food utilization and improve this pillar of food security.

Stability

Food stability refers to the ability to obtain food over time. Food insecurity can be transitory, seasonal, or chronic. In transitory food insecurity, food may be unavailable during certain periods of time. At the food production level, natural disasters and drought result in crop failure and decreased food availability. Civil conflicts can also decrease access to food. Instability in markets resulting in food-price spikes can cause transitory food insecurity. Other factors that can temporarily cause food insecurity are loss of employment or productivity, which can be caused by illness. Seasonal food insecurity can result from the regular pattern of growing seasons in food production.

Agency

Agency refers to the capacity of individuals or groups to make their own decisions about what foods they eat, what foods they produce, how that food is produced, processed, and distributed within food systems, and their ability to engage in processes that shape food system policies and governance.

Sustainability

Sustainability refers to the long-term ability of food systems to provide food security and nutrition in a way that does not compromise the economic, social, and environmental bases that generate food security and nutrition for future generations.

Effects of food insecurity

Famine and hunger are both rooted in food insecurity. Chronic food insecurity translates into a high degree of vulnerability to famine and hunger; ensuring food security presupposes the elimination of that vulnerability.

Food insecurity can force individuals to undertake risky economic activities such as prostitution.

Food insecurity is also related to obesity for people living in – "food deserts" – neighborhoods where nutritious foods are unavailable or unaffordable. People living in these neighborhoods often have to turn to more accessible but less nutritious food which puts them at greater risk of health issues like obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

Stunting and chronic nutritional deficiencies

Many countries experience ongoing food shortages and distribution problems. These result in chronic and often widespread hunger amongst significant numbers of people. Human populations can respond to chronic hunger and malnutrition by decreasing body size, known in medical terms as stunting or stunted growth. This process starts in utero if the mother is malnourished and continues through approximately the third year of life. It leads to higher infant and child mortality, but at rates far lower than during famines. Once stunting has occurred, improved nutritional intake after the age of about two years is unable to reverse the damage. Severe malnutrition in early childhood often leads to defects in cognitive development. It, therefore, creates a disparity a between children who did not experience severe malnutrition and those who experience it.

Worldwide, the prevalence of child stunting was 21.3 percent in 2019, or 144 million children. Central Asia, Eastern Asia, and the Caribbean have the largest rates of reduction in the prevalence of stunting and are the only subregions on track to achieve the 2025 and 2030 stunting targets. Between 2000 and 2019, the global prevalence of child stunting declined by one-third.

Data from the 2021 FAO SOFI showed that in 2020, 22.0 percent (149.2 million) of children under 5 years of age were affected by stunting, 6.7 percent (45.4 million) were suffering from wasting and 5.7 percent (38.9 million) were overweight. FAO warned that the figures could be even higher due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Africa and Asia account for more than nine out of ten of all children with stunting, more than nine out of ten children with wasting, and more than seven out of ten children who are affected by being overweight worldwide.

Mental health outcomes

Food insecurity is one of the social determinants of mental health. A recent comprehensive systematic review showed that over 50 studies have shown that food insecurity is strongly associated with a higher risk of depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders. For depression and anxiety, food-insecure individuals have almost a threefold risk increase compared to food-secure individuals. Research has also found that food insecurity is linked to an increased risk of disordered eating behaviors.

Causes and challenges

Global water crisis

Irrigation canals have opened dry desert areas of Egypt to agriculture.

Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest number of water-stressed countries of any place on the globe, as of an estimated 800 million people who live in Africa, 300 million live in a water-stressed environment. It is estimated that by 2030, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will be living in areas of high water stress, which will likely displace anywhere between 24 million and 700 million people as conditions become increasingly unlivable. Because the majority of Africa remains dependent on an agricultural lifestyle and 80 to 90 percent of all families in rural Africa rely upon producing their food, water scarcity translates to a loss of food security.

Land degradation

Wood chips and other green wastes are inexpensive resources that enhance soil fertility.

Intensive farming often leads to a vicious cycle of exhaustion of soil fertility and a decline of agricultural yields. Other causes of land degradation include deforestation, overgrazing, over-exploitation of vegetation for use. Approximately 40 percent of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.

Climate change

Projected changes in average food availability (represented as calorie consumption per capita), population at risk of hunger and disability-adjusted life years under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: the baseline, SSP2, and SSP3, scenario of high global rivalry and conflict. The red and the orange lines show projections for SSP3 assuming high and low intensity of future emissions and the associated climate change.

Climate change will affect agriculture and food production around the world. The reasons include the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere. Higher temperatures and altered precipitation and transpiration regimes are also factors. Increased frequency of extreme events and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure are other factors. Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture for livestock. Loss and poor growth of livestock cause milk yield and meat production to decrease. The rate of soil erosion is 10–20 times higher than the rate of soil accumulation in agricultural areas that use no-till farming. In areas with tilling it is 100 times higher. Climate change worsens this type of land degradation and desertification.

Climate change is projected to negatively affect all four pillars of food security. It will affect how much food is available. It will also affect how easy food is to access through prices, food quality, and how stable the food system is. Climate change is already affecting the productivity of wheat and other staples.

In many areas, fishery catches are already decreasing because of global warming and changes in biochemical cycles. In combination with overfishing, warming waters decrease the amount of fish in the ocean. Per degree of warming, ocean biomass is expected to decrease by about 5%. Tropical and subtropical oceans are most affected, while there may be more fish in polar waters.

Scientific understanding of how climate change would impact global food security has evolved over time. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 suggested that by 2050, the number of people at risk of hunger will increase under all scenarios by between 8 and 80 million people, with nearly all of them in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America. However, this comparison was done relative to a world where no climate change had occurred, and so it does not rule out the possibility of an overall reduction in hunger risk when compared to present-day conditions.

The earlier Special Report on Climate Change and Land suggested that under a relatively high emission scenario (RCP6.0), cereals may become 1–29% more expensive in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic pathway. Compared to a scenario where climate change is absent, this would put between 1–181 million people with low income at risk of hunger.

Agricultural diseases

Diseases affecting livestock or crops can have devastating effects on food availability especially if there are no contingency plans in place. For example, Ug99, a lineage of wheat stem rust, which can cause up to 100% crop losses, is present in wheat fields in several countries in Africa and the Middle East and is predicted to spread rapidly through these regions and possibly further afield, potentially causing a wheat production disaster that would affect food security worldwide.

Food versus fuel

Farmland and other agricultural resources have long been used to produce non-food crops including industrial materials such as cotton, flax, and rubber; drug crops such as tobacco and opium, and biofuels such as firewood, etc. In the 21st century, the production of fuel crops has increased, adding to this diversion. However, technologies are also developed to commercially produce food from energy such as natural gas and electrical energy with tiny water and land footprint.

Food loss and waste

Food recovered by food waste critic Robin Greenfield in Madison, Wisconsin, from two days of recovery from dumpsters

Food waste may be diverted for alternative human consumption when economic variables allow for it. In the 2019 edition of the State of Food and Agriculture, FAO asserted that food loss and waste have potential effects on the four pillars of food security. However, the links between food loss and waste reduction and food security are complex, and positive outcomes are not always certain. Reaching acceptable levels of food security and nutrition inevitably implies certain levels of food loss and waste. Maintaining buffers to ensure food stability requires a certain amount of food to be lost or wasted. At the same time, ensuring food safety involves discarding unsafe food, which then is counted as lost or wasted, while higher-quality diets tend to include more highly perishable foods.

How the impacts on the different dimensions of food security play out and affect the food security of different population groups depends on where in the food supply chain the reduction in losses or waste takes place as well as on where nutritionally vulnerable and food-insecure people are located geographically.

Overfishing

The overexploitation of fish stocks can pose serious risks to food security. Risks can be posed both directly by overexploitation of food fish and indirectly through overexploitation of the fish that those food fish depend on for survival. In 2022 the United Nations called attention "considerably negative impact" on food security of the fish oil and fishmeal industries in West Africa.

Fossil fuel dependence

World population supported with and without synthetic nitrogen fertilizers

Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.

Natural gas is a major feedstock for the production of ammonia, via the Haber process, for use in fertilizer production. The development of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer has significantly supported global population growth — it has been estimated that almost half the people on Earth are currently fed as a result of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use.

Disruption in global food supplies due to war

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies which had already been hit hard by the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing impact of climate change. The conflict has severely impacted food supply chains with noteworthy effects on production, sourcing, manufacturing, processing, logistics, and significant shifts in demand between nations reliant on imports from Ukraine. In Asia and the Pacific, many of the region's countries depend on the importation of basic food staples such as wheat and fertilizer with nearly 1.1 billion lacking a healthy diet caused by poverty and ever-increasing food prices.

Food prices

  Oils
  Dairy
  Meat
  Sugar
Fertilizer prices 1992–2022. The 2007–2008 world food crisis happened when fertilizer prices spiked.
  DAP
  Urea
Commodity prices
  Wheat
  Maize
  Copper

During 2022 and 2023 there were food crises in several regions as indicated by rising food prices. In 2022, the world experienced significant food price inflation along with major food shortages in several regions. Sub-Saharan Africa, Iran, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Iraq were most affected. Prices of wheat, maize, oil seeds, bread, pasta, flour, cooking oil, sugar, egg, chickpea and meat increased. The causes were disruption in supply chains from the COVID–19 pandemic, an energy crisis (2021–2023 global energy crisis), the Russian invasion of Ukraine and some Significant floods and heatwaves in 2021 destroyed key crops in the Americas and Europe. Spain and Portugal experienced droughts in early 2022 losing 60-80% of the crops in some areas.

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, food prices were already record high. 82 million East Africans and 42 million West Africans faced acute food insecurity in 2021. By the end of 2022, more than 8 million Somalis were in need of food assistance. The Food and Agriculture Organization had reported 20% yearly food price increases in February 2022. The war further pushed this increase to 40% in March 2022 but was reduced to 18% by January 2023. Nevertheless, FAO warns of double-digit food inflation persisting in many countries.

Pandemics and disease outbreaks

Global hunger remained virtually unchanged from 2021 to 2022 but is still far above pre-Covid-19-pandemic levels

The World Food Programme has stated that pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic risk undermining the efforts of humanitarian and food security organizations to maintain food security. The International Food Policy Research Institute expressed concerns that the increased connections between markets and the complexity of food and economic systems could cause disruptions to food systems during the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically affecting the poor. The Ebola outbreak in 2014 led to increases in the prices of staple foods in West Africa.

Possible solutions

Food and Agriculture Organization

A liquid manure spreader is used to increase agricultural productivity.

Over the last decade, FAO has proposed a "twin track" approach to fight food insecurity that combines sustainable development and short-term hunger relief. Development approaches include investing in rural markets and rural infrastructure. In general, FAO proposes the use of public policies and programs that promote long-term economic growth that will benefit the poor. To obtain short-term food security, vouchers for seeds, fertilizer, or access to services could promote agricultural production. The use of conditional or unconditional food or cash transfers is another approach promoted by FAO. Conditional transfers may include school feeding programs, while unconditional transfers could include general food distribution, emergency food aid or cash transfers. A third approach is the use of subsidies as safety nets to increase the purchasing power of households. FAO has stated that "approaches should be human rights-based, target the poor, promote gender equality, enhance long-term resilience and allow sustainable graduation out of poverty."

FAO has noted that some countries have been successful in fighting food insecurity and decreasing the number of people suffering from undernourishment. Bangladesh is an example of a country that has met the Millennium Development Goal hunger target. The FAO credited growth in agricultural productivity and macroeconomic stability for the rapid economic growth in the 1990s that resulted in an increase in food security. Irrigation systems were established through infrastructure development programs.

In 2020, FAO deployed intense advocacy to make healthy diets affordable as a way to reduce global food insecurity and save vast sums in the process. The agency said that if healthy diets were to become the norm, almost all of the health costs that can currently be blamed on unhealthy diets (estimated to reach US$1.3 trillion a year in 2030) could be offset; and that on the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions that are linked to unhealthy diets, the savings would be even greater (US$1.7 trillion, or over 70 percent of the total estimated for 2030).

FAO urged governments to make nutrition a central plank of their agricultural policies, investment policies and social protection systems. It also called for measures to tackle food loss and waste, and to lower costs at every stage of food production, storage, transport, distribution and marketing. Another FAO priority is for governments to secure better access to markets for small-scale producers of nutritious foods.

The World Summit on Food Security, held in Rome in 1996, aimed to renew a global commitment to the fight against hunger. The conference produced two key documents, the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and the World Food Summit Plan of Action. The Rome Declaration called for the members of the United Nations to work to halve the number of chronically undernourished people on the Earth by 2015. The Plan of Action set several targets for government and non-governmental organizations for achieving food security, at the individual, household, national, regional, and global levels.

Another World Summit on Food Security took place at the FAO's headquarters in Rome between November 16 and 18, 2009.

FAO has also created a partnership that will act through the African Union's CAADP framework aiming to end hunger in Africa by 2025. It includes different interventions including support for improved food production, a strengthening of social protection and integration of the Right to Food into national legislation.

World Food Programme

Fight Hunger: Walk the World campaign is a United Nations World Food Programme initiative.

The World Food Programme (WFP) is an agency of the United Nations that uses food aid to promote food security and eradicate hunger and poverty. In particular, the WFP provides food aid to refugees and to others experiencing food emergencies. It also seeks to improve nutrition and quality of life to the most vulnerable populations and promote self-reliance. An example of a WFP program is the "Food For Assets" program in which participants work on new infrastructure, or learn new skills, that will increase food security, in exchange for food.

Global partnerships to achieve food security and end hunger

In April 2012, the Food Assistance Convention was signed, the world's first legally binding international agreement on food aid. The May 2012 Copenhagen Consensus recommended that efforts to combat hunger and malnutrition should be the first priority for politicians and private sector philanthropists looking to maximize the effectiveness of aid spending. They put this ahead of other priorities, like the fight against malaria and AIDS.

By the United States Agency for International Development

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) proposes several key steps to increasing agricultural productivity, which is in turn key to increasing rural income and reducing food insecurity. They include:

  • Boosting agricultural science and technology. Current agricultural yields are insufficient to feed the growing populations. Eventually, the rising agricultural productivity drives economic growth.
  • Securing property rights and access to finance
  • Enhancing human capital through education and improved health
  • Conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms and democracy and governance based on principles of accountability and transparency in public institutions and the rule of law are basic to reducing vulnerable members of society.

In September 2022, the United States announced a $2.9 billion contribution to aid efforts of global food security at the UN General Assembly in New York. $2 billion will go to the U.S. Agency for International Development for its humanitarian assistance efforts around the world, along with $140 million for the agency's Feed the Future Initiative. The United States Department of Agriculture will receive $220 million to fund eight new projects, all of which is expected to benefit nearly a million children residing in food-insecure countries in Africa and East Asia. The USDA will also receive another $178 million for seven international development projects to support U.S. government priorities on four continents.

Agrifood systems resilience

According to FAO, resilient agrifood systems achieve food security. The resilience of agrifood systems refers to the capacity over time of agrifood systems, in the face of any disruption, to sustainably ensure availability of and access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for all, and sustain the livelihoods of agrifood systems' actors. Truly resilient agrifood systems must have a robust capacity to prevent, anticipate, absorb, adapt and transform in the face of any disruption, with the functional goal of ensuring food security and nutrition for all and decent livelihoods and incomes for agrifood systems' actors. Such resilience addresses all dimensions of food security, but focuses specifically on stability of access and sustainability, which ensure food security in both the short and the long term. Resilience-building involves preparing for disruptions, particularly those that cannot be anticipated, in particular through: diversity in domestic production, in imports, and in supply chains; robust food transport networks; and guaranteed continued access to food for all.

The FAO finds that there are six pathways to follow towards food systems transformation:

  1. integrating humanitarian, development and peacebuilding policies in conflict-affected areas;
  2. scaling up climate resilience across food systems;
  3. strengthening resilience of the most vulnerable to economic adversity;
  4. intervening along the food supply chains to lower the cost of nutritious foods;
  5. tackling poverty and structural inequalities, ensuring interventions are pro-poor and inclusive; and
  6. strengthening food environments and changing consumer behaviour to promote dietary patterns with positive impacts on human health and the environment.

Improving agricultural productivity to benefit the rural poor

A farmer on the outskirts of Lilongwe (Malawi) prepares a field for planting.
A farmer holding up onions he has grown on his farm near Gilgil, Kenya

According to the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, a major study led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), managing rainwater and soil moisture more effectively, and using supplemental and small-scale irrigation, hold the key to helping the greatest number of poor people. It has called for a new era of water investments and policies for upgrading rainfed agriculture that would go beyond controlling field-level soil and water to bring new freshwater sources through better local management of rainfall and runoff. Increased agricultural productivity enables farmers to grow more food, which translates into better diets and, under market conditions that offer a level playing field, into higher farm incomes.

Biotechnology and genetically modified (GM) crops

The use of genetically modified (GM) crops could make some contributions to food security in certain cases. The genome of these crops can be altered to address one or more aspects of the plant that may be preventing it from being grown in various regions under certain conditions. Many of these alterations can address the challenges that were previously mentioned above, including the water crisis, land degradation, and the climate change.

In agriculture and animal husbandry, the Green Revolution popularized the use of conventional hybridization to increase yield by creating high-yielding varieties. Often, the handful of hybridized breeds originated in developed countries and was further hybridized with local varieties in the rest of the developing world to create high-yield strains resistant to local climate and diseases.

Some scientists question the safety of biotechnology as a panacea; agroecologists Miguel Altieri and Peter Rosset have enumerated ten reasons why biotechnology will not ensure food security, protect the environment, or reduce poverty. Reasons include for example:

  1. There is no relationship between the prevalence of hunger in a given country and its population
  2. Most innovations in agricultural biotechnology have been profit-driven rather than need-driven
  3. Ecological theory predicts that the large-scale landscape homogenization with transgenic crops will exacerbate the ecological problems already associated with monoculture agriculture
  4. And, that much of the needed food can be produced by small farmers located throughout the world using existing agroecological technologies.

Alternative diets

Food security could be increased by integrating alternative foods that can be grown in compact environments, that are resilient to pests and disease, and that do not require complex supply chains. Foods meeting these criteria include algae, mealworm, and fungi-derived mycoprotein. While unpalatable on their own to most people, such raw ingredients might be processed into more palatable foods.

Food Justice Movement

The Food Justice Movement has been seen as a unique and multifaceted movement with relevance to the issue of food security. It has been described as a movement about social-economic and political problems in connection to environmental justice, improved nutrition and health, and activism. Today, a growing number of individuals and minority groups are embracing the Food Justice due to the perceived increase in hunger within nations such as the United States as well as the amplified effect of food insecurity on many minority communities, particularly the Black and Latino communities.

A possible way to learn about nutrition, and provide community activities and access to food is community gardening.

By country

Food security in particular countries:

Afghanistan

In Afghanistan, about 35.5% of households are food insecure (as of 2018). The prevalence of underweight, stunting, and wasting in children under five years of age is also very high. In October 2021, more than half of Afghanistan's 39 million people faced an acute food shortage. On 11 November 2021, Human Rights Watch reported that Afghanistan is facing widespread famine due to collapsed economy and broken banking system. The UN World Food Program has also issued multiple warnings of worsening food insecurity.

Australia

In 2012, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducted a survey measuring nutrition, which included food security. It was reported that 4% of Australian households were food insecure. 1.5% of those households were severely food insecure. Additionally, the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS), reported that certain demographics are more vulnerable to being food insecure; such as indigenous, elderly, regional, and single-parent households. Financial issues were cited as the main cause of food insecurity.

Climate change may present future challenges for Australia regarding food security, as Australia already experiences extreme weather. Australia's history in biofuel production and use of fertilizers has reduced the quality of the land. Increased extreme weather is projected to affect crops, livestock, and soil quality. Wheat production, one of Australia's main food exports, is projected to decrease by 9.2% by 2030. Beef production is also expected to fall by 9.6%.

China

The persistence of wet markets has been described as "critical for ensuring urban food security," particularly in Chinese cities. The influence of wet markets on urban food security includes food pricing and physical accessibility.

Calling food waste "shameful," General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, launched Operation Empty Plate. Xi stressed that there should be a sense of crisis regarding food security. In 2020, China witnessed a rise in food prices, due to the COVID-19 outbreak and mass flooding that wiped out the country's crops, which made food security a priority for Xi.

Democratic Republic of Congo

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, about 33% of households are food insecure; it is 60% in eastern provinces. A study showed the correlation of food insecurity negatively affecting at-risk HIV adults in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Hunger is frequent in the country, but sometimes it is to the extreme that many families cannot afford to eat every day. Bushmeat trade was used to measure the trend of food security. Urban areas mainly consume bushmeat because they cannot afford other types of meat.

Mexico

Mexico has sought to ensure food security through its history. Yet, despite various efforts, Mexico continues to lack national food and nutrition strategies that secure food security for the people. As a large country of more than 100 million people, planning and executing social policies are complex tasks. Although Mexico has been expanding its food and nutrition programs that have been expected, and to some degree, have contributed to increases in health and nutrition, food security, particularly as it relates to obesity and malnutrition, still remains a relevant public health problem. Although food availability is not the issue, severe deficiencies in the accessibility of food contribute to insecurity.

Singapore

In 2019 the Singapore government launched the "30 by 30" program which aims to drastically reduce food insecurity through hydroponic farms and aquaculture farms.

United States

Infographic about food insecurity in the US

National Food Security Surveys are the main survey tool used by the USDA to measure food security in the United States. Based on respondents' answers to survey questions, the household can be placed on a continuum of food security defined by the USDA. This continuum has four categories: high food security, marginal food security, low food security, and very low food security. The continuum of food security ranges from households that consistently have access to nutritious food to households where at least one or more members routinely go without food due to economic reasons. Economic Research Service report number 155 (ERS-155) estimates that 14.5 percent (17.6 million) of US households were food insecure at some point in 2012.

Data from 2018 about food security in the U.S. shows:

  • 11.1 percent (14.3 million) of U.S. households were food insecure at some time during 2018.
  • In 6.8 percent of households with children, only adults were food insecure in 2018.
  • Both children and adults were food insecure in 7.1 percent of households with children (2.7 million households) in 2018.

Food insecurity is measured in the United States by questions in the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The questions asked are about anxiety that the household budget is inadequate to buy enough food, inadequacy in the quantity or quality of food eaten by adults and children in the household, and instances of reduced food intake or consequences of reduced food intake for adults and children. A National Academy of Sciences study commissioned by the USDA criticized this measurement and the relationship of "food security" to hunger, adding "it is not clear whether hunger is appropriately identified as the end of the food security scale."

Food insecurity is recognized as a social determinant of health, or a condition in the environment where people are born, live, learn, work, play, worship, and age that affect a wide range of health, functioning, and quality-of-life outcomes and risks.

Poverty is closely associated with food insecurity but this relationship is not foolproof, in that not all people living below the poverty line experience food insecurity, and people who live above the poverty line can also experience food insecurity. Underlying factors of food insecurity relates to economic factors such as income.

Uganda

In 2022, 28% of Ugandan households experienced food insecurity. This insecurity has negative effects on HIV transmission and household stability.

Society and culture

Food security related UN days

October 16 has been chosen as World Food Day, in honour of the date FAO was founded in 1945. On this day, FAO hosts a variety of events at its headquarters in Rome and around the world, as well as seminars with UN officials.

Human rights approach

The United Nations (UN) recognized the Right to Food in the Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, and has since said that it is vital for the enjoyment of all other rights.

United Nations Goals

The UN Millennium Development Goals were one of the initiatives aimed at achieving food security in the world. The first Millennium Development Goal states that the UN "is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty" by 2015. The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, advocates for a multidimensional approach to food security challenges. This approach emphasizes the physical availability of food; the social, economic and physical access people have to food; and the nutrition, safety and cultural appropriateness or adequacy of food.

Multiple different international agreements and mechanisms have been developed to address food security. The main global policy to reduce hunger and poverty is in the Sustainable Development Goals. In particular Goal 2: Zero Hunger sets globally agreed targets to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. Although there has been some progress, the world is not on track to achieve the global nutrition targets, including those on child stunting, wasting and overweight by 2030.

Theory of Change

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
People developing their Theory of Change in a workshop

Theory of Change (ToC) is a methodology or a criterion for planning, participation, adaptive management, and evaluation that is used in companies, philanthropy, not-for-profit, international development, research, and government sectors to promote social change. A Theory of Change of a social program defines its long-term goals and then maps backward to identify necessary preconditions.

Theory of Change explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. The identified changes are mapped – as the "outcomes pathway" – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as well as chronological flow and feedback loops. The links between outcomes are explained by "rationales" or statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another.

The innovation of Theory of Change lies (1) in making the distinction between desired and actual outcomes and (2) in requiring stakeholders to model their desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to achieve those outcomes.

Theory of Change can begin at any stage of an initiative, depending on the intended use. A Theory of Change developed at the outset is best at informing the planning of an initiative. Having worked out a change model, practitioners can make more informed decisions about strategy and tactics. As monitoring and evaluation data become available, stakeholders can periodically refine the Theory of Change as the evidence indicates. A Theory of Change can be developed retrospectively by reading program documents, talking to stakeholders, and analyzing data. This is often done during evaluations reflecting what has worked or not in order to understand the past and plan for the future.

History

Origins

Theory of Change emerged from the field of program theory and program evaluation in the mid 1990s as a new way of analyzing the theories motivating programs and initiatives working for social and political change. Its earlier origins can be traced to Peter Drucker's articulation of Management by Objectives, popularized in his 1954 book The Practice of Management. Management by Objectives requires identifying higher-order Goals, and lower-order Objectives which, if achieved, are expected to result in the Goals being achieved. Theory of Change extends beyond Goals (commonly named Outcomes in Theory of Change terminology) and Objectives to include Impact – the anticipated result of achieving stated goals.

Theory of Change is focused not just on generating knowledge about whether a program is effective, but also on explaining what methods it uses to be effective. Theory of Change as a concept has strong roots in a number of disciplines, including environmental and organizational psychology, but has also increasingly been connected to sociology and political science. Within industrial-organizational psychology, Austin and Bartunek have noted that approaches to organizational development are frequently based on more or less explicit assumptions about 1) the processes through which organizations change, and 2) the interventions needed to effect change.

Development in evaluation practice

Within evaluation practice, Theory of Change emerged in the 1990s at the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change as a means to model and evaluate comprehensive community initiatives. Notable methodologists, such as Huey-tsyh Chen, Peter Rossi, Michael Quinn Patton, Heléne Clark, Carol Taylor Fitz-Gibbon, and Carol Weiss, had been thinking about how to apply program theories to evaluation since the 1970s. The Roundtable's early work focused on working through the challenges of evaluating complex community initiatives. This work culminated in a 1995 publication, ‘New Approaches to Evaluating Comprehensive Community Initiatives’. In that book, Carol Weiss, a member of the Roundtable's steering committee on evaluation, hypothesized that a key reason complex programs are so difficult to evaluate is that the assumptions that inspire them are poorly articulated. She argued that stakeholders of complex community initiatives typically are unclear about how the change process will unfold and therefore place little attention on the early and mid-term changes needed to reach a longer-term goal.

Weiss popularized the term “Theory of Change” as a way to describe the set of assumptions that explain both the mini-steps that lead to the long-term goal of interest and the connections between program activities and outcomes that occur at each step of the way. She challenged designers of complex community-based initiatives to be specific about the theories of change guiding their work and suggested that doing so would improve their overall evaluation plans and would strengthen their ability to claim credit for outcomes that were predicted in their theory. She called for the use of an approach that, at first glance, seems like common sense: lay out the sequence of outcomes that are expected to occur as the result of an intervention, and plan an evaluation strategy around tracking whether these expected outcomes are actually produced. Her stature in the field, and the apparent promise of this idea, motivated a number of foundations to support the use of this technique—later termed “the Theory of Change approach”—in the evaluations of community change initiatives. In the years that followed, a number of evaluations were developed around this approach, fueling more interest in the field about its value and potential application.

Between 2000 – 2002, the Aspen Roundtable for Community Change led the dissemination and case studies of the Theory of Change approach, although still mostly applied to the field of community initiatives. As the Aspen Roundtable concluded its leadership in the field and moved on to apply Theory of Change to such topics as structural racism, others expanded the visibility and application of Theory of Change into international development, public health, human rights and more. The visibility and knowledge of Theory of Change grew with the creation in 2002 of theoryofchange.org and later of Theory of Change Online software.

Growing popularity

In the 2010s, interest increased with some reviews commissioned by Comic Relief in the UK, the Department for International Development in the UK, the Asia Foundation and Oxfam Australia to name a few. The explosion of knowledge of the term, and demand for "theories", led to the formation in 2013 of the first non-profit dedicated to promoting and clarifying standards for Theory of Change. The Center for Theory of Change houses a library, definitions, glossary and is licensed to offer Theory of Change Online by ActKnowledge free of charge.

The use of Theory of Change in planning and evaluation has increased among philanthropies, government agencies, development organizations, universities, international NGOs, the UN, and many other major organizations in both developed and developing countries. This has led to new areas of work, such as linking the Theory of Change approach to systems thinking and complexity. Change processes are no longer seen as linear, but as having many feedback loops that need to be understood. Consequently, Theory of Change is strengthening monitoring, evaluation and learning. They are also helping to understand and assess impact in hard to measure areas, such as governance, capacity strengthening and institutional development. Innovations continue to emerge.

Challenges

Despite the growing ubiquity of Theory of Change, especially in the development arena, understanding of the approach and the methods necessary to implement it effectively are not uniform. In fact, there is evidence of some confusion about what the term ‘Theory of Change’ actually means; in some cases, what some program developers describe as a Theory of Change is, in essence, simply a log frame, strategic plan or another approach that does not encompass the complexity of the Theory of Change approach. There is also inconsistent use of other common Theory of Change terminology (e.g., outputs, outcomes, impacts, etc.), which confounds effective Theory of Change design, evaluation, and learning.

Methodology

Basic structure

A Theory of Change is a high order, or macro, If-Then statement: If this is done, Then these are the anticipated results. The outcomes pathway is a set of needed conditions relevant to a given field of action, which are placed diagrammatically in logical relationship to one another and connected with arrows that posit causality. Outcomes along the pathway are also preconditions to outcomes above them. Thus, early outcomes must be in place for intermediate outcomes to be achieved; intermediate outcomes must be in place for the next set of outcomes to be achieved; and so on. An outcomes pathway therefore represents the change logic and its underlying set of assumptions, which are spelled out in the rationales given for why specific connections exist between outcomes and in the theory narrative.

Quality control criteria

In the early days of Theory of Change, Anne Kubisch and others established three quality control criteria. These are:

Plausibility
Plausibility refers to the logic of the outcomes' pathway. Does it make sense? Are the outcomes in the right order? Are the preconditions each necessary and collectively sufficient to reach the long-term outcomes and ultimate impact? Are there gaps in the logic?
Feasibility
Feasibility refers to whether the initiative can realistically achieve its long-term outcomes and impact. Does the organization have adequate resources? Does it need partners? Does the scope, expectations, or timeline of the theory need adjustment?
Testability
Testability refers chiefly to the indicators: Are they solid and measurable? Will they yield sufficient information to evaluate the success of the initiative? Will they be convincing to necessary audiences?

In addition to these three basic quality control criteria, ActKnowledge has added another key criterion: Appropriate Scope. An actionable theory that can be communicated to the key audiences is dependent in part upon choosing the right scope: broad enough to leave no gaps in the model, yet focused enough on the opportunities and resources at hand. Appropriate Scope also integrates the evaluation concept of “accountability”. Many Theory of Change outcome pathways include an “accountability ceiling,” often a dashed line drawn across the pathway that separates outcomes the organization will monitor and claim credit for attaining from higher-order outcomes that are beyond its power to achieve—e.g., “a just society.”

Applying the model

An Outcomes Pathway mapped out

An important first step in the process is identifying a workable long-term goal and long-term outcomes. The long-term goal should be something the initiative can realistically achieve and that everyone involved understands. A trained external facilitator is best to lead the group to consensus and specificity in this process.

Once a long-term goal is identified, the group then considers: “What conditions must be in place for us to reach the goal?” Any such necessary conditions should be shown as outcomes on the Theory of Change pathway, underneath the long-term outcome. These outcomes act as preconditions to the long-term outcome.

The process of identifying preconditions continues, drilling down the pathway by posing fundamental questions such as: “What has to be in place for this outcome to be achieved?” and “Are these preconditions sufficient for the outcome to be achieved?” In these sessions, participants may use markers, sticky notes, and chart paper to identify and organize outcomes, surface assumptions, develop indicators, and so on.

The messy group work is then usually captured by the facilitator in digital form, through which the content can be expanded, edited, printed, shared, and otherwise managed as the theory continues to be developed.

Theory of change in process and action

Measuring change

The ultimate success of any Theory of Change lies in its ability to demonstrate progress on the achievement of outcomes. Evidence of success confirms the theory and indicates that the initiative is effective. Therefore, the outcomes in a Theory of Change must be coupled with indicators that guide and facilitate measurement.

Indicators may be said to operationalize the outcomes – that is, they make the outcomes understandable in concrete, observable and measurable terms. The relationship of indicator to outcome can be confusing and may be clarified with this simple formula: “I’ll know [outcome reached] when I see [indicator].” For example, “I’ll know that teenagers in the program understand the prenatal nutrition and health guidelines when I see program participants identifying foods that are good sources of nutrition.” A graduated set of indicators can be used to measure and assess the extent to which an outcome has been realized.

Ideally, every outcome on the outcomes pathway (below the dashed accountability ceiling) should have an indicator, but available resources often make that difficult to do. Many groups want to designate priority outcomes – that is, outcomes they know they need to measure if the theory is going to hold. These are the outcomes that must be operationalized (that is, made measurable by one or more indicators.) At a minimum, every outcome for which initial interventions will be designed should have at least one indicator.

Though indicators are valuable, it may be necessary to do more in-depth data collection and analyses to assess whether and how outcomes and assumptions have been realized.

Monitoring and evaluation

As the origins of Theory of Change lie in the field of monitoring and evaluation, developments over the years have ensured that Theory of Change continues to be an invaluable method to conduct evaluations of many different types of projects and organizations. Often posing theory-based evaluation questions helps to focus evaluation efforts on key concerns. As well, there may be a need to pick the right indicators from among the many available, and one can use “monitoring questions” to select the indicators that will be most helpful. The monitoring questions take the form of “What do we really need to know in order to manage grant-making directed to the achievement of this outcome? It is important to understand success beyond just knowing “what works”. Experience has shown that blindly copying or scaling an intervention hardly ever works. An important task for monitoring and evaluation is to gather enough knowledge and understanding so as to be able to predict – with some degree of confidence – how an initiative and set of activities might work in a different situation, or how it needs to be adjusted to get similar or better results. We also need to be able to combine evidence from a number of studies in order to build a stronger picture of what is taking place, how it is unfolding, and, most importantly, how context influences the initiative.

Just as development of a Theory of Change is a participatory process, a ToC-based monitoring and evaluation system can be designed in a participatory way. For example, grant managers can be involved in choosing the outcomes of greatest interest to them in their decision-making. Similarly, people on the ground can have input into which indicators to use and how to operationalize them, choices of instruments and methods of data collection, and which existing sources of data may be used in tracking indicators.

Comparison with other models

Practitioners have developed logic models and logical frameworks as strategies and tools to plan and evaluate social change programs. While these models well articulate the goals and resources of an initiative or organization, they give less focus to the complex social, economic, political and institutional processes that underlie social and societal change. Thus, while logic models and logframes have developed an Implementation Theory behind their work, they can lack an underlying Theory of Change. Theory of Change also contrasts with logic models and logframes by beginning with a participatory process to clearly define desired outcomes and to air and challenge one another's assumptions. Theory of Change can support collective visioning, foster a shared understanding between stakeholders, and bridge thought-styles and different ways of knowing. Theory of Change begins by first working out program goals or desired impact and working backwards on outcome pathways, rather than engaging in conventional forward oriented “so-that” reasoning. As an example of "so-that" reasoning: a grantee decides to increase media coverage on the lack of health insurance among children so that public awareness increases so that policymakers increase their knowledge and interest so that policies change so that more children have health insurance. In Theory of Change, by contrast, the group begins not with its intervention but with its long-term goal and outcomes and then works backward (in time) toward the earliest changes that need to occur. Only when the pathway has been developed is it time to consider which interventions will best produce the outcomes in the pathway.

Many organizations, including the Rockefeller Foundation and the United States Agency for International Development, have used a Results Framework and companion Scorecard as management tools. The Results Framework is complementary and adaptable to a Theory of Change-based monitoring and evaluation system. The framework gives the appearance of being derived from a well-thought-out conceptual model, even if the conceptual model is lacking. The limitations of the Results Frameworks is that they do not show causal connections between conditions that need to change in order to meet the ultimate goals. The added value of Theory of Change lies in revealing the conceptual model, including the causal relationships between and among outcomes, the relationships of activities to outcomes, and of outcomes to indicators. Overall, having a Theory of Change helps make explicit the assumptions upon which the Results Framework is based.

Applications

ToC in International Development

State agencies

American foundations

Non-government organizations

Research organizations and programs

ToC in Climate Organizations

  • The Climate Center

ToC in community schools (U. S.)

  • Children's Aid Society
  • Communities in Schools (Va.)
  • Netter Center for Community Partnerships (Philadelphia)
  • Cincinnati Community Learning Centers
  • Hartford (Conn.) Community Schools
  • Paterson (N. J.) Community Schools
  • United Federation of Teachers (New York City)
  • Beacon Schools (New York City)

ToC in philanthropy

Application in Research Planning, Adaptive Management, and Evaluation

Theory of Change (ToC) is a multi-purpose tool that can be applied for the purpose of planning, managing, monitoring, and evaluating research, especially change-oriented research (e.g., research-for-development, transdisciplinary research, sustainability science). As in other applications, a research ToC describes the causal relationships between a research project or program and its intended results (i.e., outputs, outcomes, and impacts), framed as a set of testable hypotheses about how and why research contributes to change.

ToC for research planning and design

As an ex ante planning tool, Theory of Change can make research design and implementation more realistic and relevant by facilitating critical reflection on the role of research in a change process. It can also make research more participatory, by identifying and engaging key stakeholders of the research, and enabling co-ownership of the research process and the research results (e.g., findings). Theory of Change can accompany or be embedded within a research proposal.

ToC for adaptive management of research

As a monitoring tool, a Theory of Change helps identify useful indicators to assess progress and can facilitate adaptive management. It does this by stimulating learning about what strategies work in the specific research context, and where additional attention and resources need to be directed in order to achieve intended outcomes. This can inform adjustments to planned research activities, and also take advantage of unexpected opportunities by giving users a framework to determine whether an opportunity does or does not align with the purpose and objectives of the research project or program.

ToC for research evaluation

Theory of Change serves as the main analytical framework in theory-based research evaluation. A Theory of Change also helps identify what data are necessary to test whether the change happened as hypothesized. As an ex post evaluation tool, evaluators can assess the actual achievements of research projects or programs against expected outcomes, increasing research transparency and accountability to results.

Innovations

New horizons of theory of change

There are two areas of work that, although not coordinated with Theory of Change, offer much to think about in making Theory of Change more focused and effective:

1. The Annie E. Casey Foundation proposes mapping an organization's social change work along three criteria: Impact, Influence, Leverage.

  • The impact of your work is its program outcomes
  • Your influence is how much other actors change as a result of your work
  • Your leverage is how much investment others put into your model.

To date, Theory of Change has not distinguished impact, influence, and leverage as types of outcomes, but it may be useful to do so as a way of focusing the Theory of Change on measurable achievements. Particularly, when using Theory of Change to guide monitoring and evaluation, the Casey rubric helps focus the group's attention on outcomes, which could, if achieved, be convincingly attributed to the group's work. Other than direct program-related outcomes (impact), the Theory would anticipate outcomes in influence and outcomes in leverage. This approach could thereby help to avoid mapping outcomes involving broad shifts in behavior and values among whole populations, which are easy to think about, but are very difficult to monitor and to attribute to any one program.

2. Another refinement, which directly addresses this problem of attribution, comes from Outcome mapping. This process distinguishes changes in state from changes in behavior, changes in “state” being just those broad shifts in economic conditions, policy, politics, institutional behavior, and so on, among whole populations (e.g., cities, regions, countries, industries, economic sectors, etc.). Measuring changes in state can exceed the capacity of any one actor's monitoring capabilities. Governments collect data on changes in state but, of course, the data may not be calibrated to measure the kinds of change anticipated in any one Theory of Change. Changes in state are also, as stated above, difficult to attribute to any one source.

In contrast, changes in behavior are much easier to monitor, and more easily related to a group's own work. The Outcomes Mapping focus on changes in behavior would tend to direct a Theory of Change toward outcomes like this, which are outcomes the change agent cares most about and which it can relatively easily monitor and evaluate. There would be proportionately less attention to outcomes such as “every child is within five minutes walk of a playground” or “residents are healthy”. Such “changes in state” are more difficult to monitor and to attribute with certainty.

Theory of change and "being strategic"

Does Theory of Change frustrate or complement strategic thinking? This is an ongoing and important discussion, especially as there is an increasing emphasis on and demand for strategy as grounded, flexible, and opportunity-driven. Some perspectives understand ToC as a fixed model that gets in the way of effective work and useful evaluation. However, Patrizi notes that ToC is only at odds with strategic behavior if an organization treats their ToC like any other fixed plan. As Patrizi writes: “Once assumptions [in a theory of change] are laid out, 1) foundations don't actually test those assumptions, and 2) they don't see using the model as a continuous process. It is, like, ‘Well, we did our ToC and now we are done’. If the change model is instead treated as something to adjust as organizations learn what works from experience in the field, then the theory should not be at odds with strategic behavior. If strategy is about seizing opportunities and trying out what works, the Theory of Change model serves as a guiding frame of reference. A list is not a model; a list does not push practitioners to consider the goals as part of a systematic model of change, or to think critically—strategically—about how best to attain the outcomes along the pathway.

Limitations and function of a linear model

Given that things don't happen in a straight-line sequence – as things impact each other in multiple, partly unpredictable ways, with all kinds of feedback loops that aren't modeled in a top-down diagramming format – an important question is: How adequate is the linear Theory of Change model as a description of what's going to happen? One answer to the question is that Theory of Change does not, in fact, model how things happen; rather, it models how we believe things will happen. Theory of Change is a forecast that shows what conditions we believe must exist for other conditions to come into being. As it is forward looking and logical, Theory of Change reflects the way we think logically –that is, if a, then b—and chronologically—first this, then that. The linear format is therefore appropriate. It can be helpful to complement Theory of Change with a process model that shows how the Theory of Change fits into a larger, more cyclical scheme in which theory leads to action, which leads to monitoring and evaluation, which leads to adjustment of the theory, which leads to the next action, more monitoring and evaluation, and so on. Such a process model depicts the linear theory as a conceptual driver of change, which must, to remain useful, be accompanied not only by taking action but also by evaluation and recalibration.

Getting "buy-in" from senior leadership

It is important to remember that it is often a high-level person who has endorsed and initiated the Theory of Change process as something of value, so they have “bought in” at the beginning. The challenge that emerges is, therefore, how to sustain their support while letting others develop the theory. This is similar to many other issues that come up in matters of hierarchy and delegation: effective leaders delegate and trust their teams to carry out the work. There are many variations on the model but usually it involves good measures of delegation and, conversely, of reporting back to get the leader's thinking as the work progresses. It is necessary to come to high-level people having laid out your best thinking: don't go to them without something concrete to which they can respond, but don't wait until everything is perfect, either.

Psychological adaptation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A psychological adaptation seen universally in humans is to easily learn a fear of snakes.

A psychological adaptation is a functional, cognitive or behavioral trait that benefits an organism in its environment. Psychological adaptations fall under the scope of evolved psychological mechanisms (EPMs), however, EPMs refer to a less restricted set. Psychological adaptations include only the functional traits that increase the fitness of an organism, while EPMs refer to any psychological mechanism that developed through the processes of evolution. These additional EPMs are the by-product traits of a species’ evolutionary development (see spandrels), as well as the vestigial traits that no longer benefit the species’ fitness. It can be difficult to tell whether a trait is vestigial or not, so some literature is more lenient and refers to vestigial traits as adaptations, even though they may no longer have adaptive functionality. For example, xenophobic attitudes and behaviors, some have claimed, appear to have certain EPM influences relating to disease aversion, however, in many environments these behaviors will have a detrimental effect on a person's fitness. The principles of psychological adaptation rely on Darwin's theory of evolution and are important to the fields of evolutionary psychology, biology, and cognitive science.

Darwinian theory

Charles Darwin

Charles Darwin proposed his theory of evolution in On the Origin of Species (1859). His theory dictates that adaptations are traits that arise from the selective pressures a species faces in its environment. Adaptations must benefit either an organism's chance of survival or reproduction to be considered adaptive, and are then passed down to the next generation through this process of natural selection. Psychological adaptations are those adaptive traits that we consider cognitive or behavioral. These can include conscious social strategies, subconscious emotional responses (guilt, fear, etc.), or the most innate instincts. Evolutionary psychologists consider a number of factors in what determines a psychological adaptation, such as functionality, complexity, efficiency, and universality. The Adapted Mind is considered a foundational text on evolutionary psychology, further integrating Darwinian theory into modern psychology.

Evolved adaptation vs learned behaviour

An area of disagreement arises between evolutionary psychologists, cognitive scientists and behaviourists on where to draw the line on what is considered a psychological adaptation, and what is considered a learned behaviour. Where behaviourism explains certain behaviours as conditioned responses, cognitivism may push that these behaviours arise from a psychological adaptation that institutes a preference for that behaviour. Evolutionary psychology proposes that the human psychology consists primarily of psychological adaptations, which is opposed by the tabula rasa or blank slate model of human psychology. Early behaviourists, like B.F. Skinner, tended to the blank slate model and argued that innate behaviors and instincts were few, some behaviourists suggesting that the only innate behavior was the ability to learn. On the other hand, Steven Pinker presents the cognitivist perspective in his book, The Blank Slate, in which he challenges the tabula rasa models and argues that human behaviour is shaped by psychological adaptations.

This difference in theory can be seen in research on modern human sexual preferences, with behaviourists arguing that attraction has conditioning influences, such as from the media or cultural norms, while others arguing it is based on psychological adaptations. However, sexual preferences are a difficult subject to test due to the amount of variance and flexibility exhibited in human mate choice. A hybrid resolution to psychological adaptations and learned behaviours refers to an adaptation as the species’ capacity for a certain behavior, while each individual organism still needs to be conditioned to exhibit that behaviour. This approach can explain language acquisition in relation to linguist and cognitive scientist Noam Chomsky's model of human language. His model supports that the capacity for language is a psychological adaptation (involving both the language necessary brain structures and disposition for language acquisition), however, children lack any particular instantiation of language at birth, and must instead learn one in their environment.

Sexual selection

The mating strategies of both sexes can be simplified into different psychological adaptations. There is extensive evidence that incest avoidance, which is the tendency to avoid sexual intercourse with close relatives is an evolved behavioural adaptation. Incest avoidance can be seen cross-culturally in humans, and is evident in wild animals. Evolutionary psychologists argue that incest avoidance adapted due to the greater chance of producing children with severe disabilities when mating with relatives, and because genetic variability offers an increase in fitness regarding offspring survival. Sexual jealousy is another behavior observed in human and non-human animals that appears to be instinctual. Heuristic problem solving and consistent preference for behavioral patterns are considered by some evolutionary psychologists to be psychological adaptations. For example, the tendency for females to change their sexual strategies when faced with developmental pressures such as an absent father may be the result of a psychological adaptation.

Psychological adaptation in males

Human males have developed psychological adaptations, which make them attractive to the opposite sex in order to increase their reproductive success. Evolutionarily, it pays for a male to be polygynousto have a number of female partners at once – because it means he can create more offspring at once, as they don't have to invest any time in carrying a foetus. Examples of some of these other adaptations include strategies to entice females, strategies to retain a partner and the desire for short-term relationships.

Women find humorous men more attractive.

Humour

It has been researched that humour is sexually selected and acts as a fitness indicator. According to this research it was concluded the production of humour increases mate value in men, and some women seek men with a good sense of humour. In turn, some men are believed to have developed an adaptation in which they endeavour to produce humour with the aim to attract female mates.

Historically, men fight with each other as a mate retention strategy.

Waist-to-hip ratio

Human males have developed an adaptation in which they find women more attractive if they show cues of fertility, such as a good waist–hip ratio. Women with a waist-to-hip ratio of 0.7 are considered more attractive to males than those with a ratio of 0.8, who are considered to have a more masculine figure. This is because they are perceived to be able to have children more and to be more fertile and healthy.

Mate retention

Males have developed behaviours that help them to retain a mate, also known as mate guarding, in order to enhance reproductive success in long-term relationships. Examples are intersexual manipulations which involves the male manipulating the way his partner views their current relationship and to repulse her from other relationships. He could do this by enhancing his own value or decreasing the value of other males. In extreme cases, some men have developed intersexual adaptations that restrict their partner from interacting with other men, including the use of violence. By doing this, women may be less able to leave that relationship, even if it is due to fear. On the other hand, intrasexual manipulations are used to reduce any other options for the women, which could include decreasing their partner's value or make it clear to other males that a woman is 'theirs' by using possessive techniques such as holding her hand in public.

Parental investment

With regards to parental investment, males are much more wary when investing in offspring as they cannot guarantee that the child is theirs. Therefore, as an adaptation, males tend to only invest in offspring if there are high levels of commitment and if they were produced in a long-term relationship as opposed to short-term relationships.

Short-term mating

Some human males have also developed an adaptation in which they have a desire for short-term relationships more than some human females do. This is because men hardly have any investment obligation, whereas a female has to carry a child for nine months if she was to fall pregnant after the sexual encounter. Evolutionarily, it is thought that males have a desire to reproduce as much as they can, and short-term relationships are a good way to inseminate many women with his sperm in order for his genes to continue through generations. There is much evidence for how this short-term mating has evolved psychologically for males, beginning with the desire for a variety of sex partners. It seems that a larger percentage of men, in every culture of the world, desire more than one sex partner in one month compared to women. Furthermore, men are more likely than women to have sexual intercourse with someone having known them for only one hour, one day, one week or one month.

Problems

However, there are some adaptive problems in short-term mating that men must solve; one of these is avoiding commitment and women who might not have sex with the male until they have a signal of commitment or investment. This would reduce the number of partners a male could pursue and succeed with.

Psychological adaptation in females

Female sex-specific adaptations provide evidence of special design for the purpose of increasing fitness and in turn, reproductive success. For example, mate choice, rape aversion tactics and pregnancy sickness are all female-specific psychological adaptations, identified through empirical research, found to increase genetic contributions through survival and reproduction.

Mate-choice as an adaptation

Women can use facial cues such as strong jawlines to detect testosterone presence.

A psychological adaptation for the purpose of reproductive success can be seen in female mate choice. David Buss, an evolutionary psychologist, examines the fundamental principles of selection pressures that create human mate preferences in his contribution to the publication The Adapted Mind. Females have evolved psychological procedures that affect mating decisions in relation to certain male physical attributes and behaviours. Robert Trivers, an evolutionary biologist, outlines the evolutionary basis of these preferences in relation to parental investment and sexual selection. He proposes that females have adapted a preference to mate with males who display both an ability and willingness to invest vital resources for the survival of the female and her offspring. Research suggests females are able to use external cues displayed by males such as territory or physical possessions.

For example, women are able to evaluate the long-term presence of testosterone in men by observing facial testosterone cues. Testosterone stimulates craniofacial development and results in a squarer jaw and consequently, a more masculine appearance. Women in the fertile phase of their menstrual cycle perceive masculine faces as healthier and more attractive than feminine male faces. Females show a psychological adaptation to detect mate quality using these hormonal cues which display the male's fitness and reproductive value. Males who display testosterone cues show a female that they are able to offset the high physiological costs such as immunosuppressant effects.

Rape avoidance

Research proposes that women have evolved psychological mechanisms specifically designed to motivate rape-avoidance behaviours or strategies. This is because rape poses severe costs for the female such as pregnancy, physical harm, injury or death, relationship abandonment and self-esteem depletion. The greatest cost to the female is the circumvention of her mate choice, which threatens reproductive success, resulting in the possession of adaptations in response. Evidence suggests that a number of female-specific traits have evolved in order to reduce the risks associated with experiencing rape. The body-guard hypothesis proposes that rape-avoidance drives women's mate preferences for physically strong or dominant males. Women may also form groups with men and women as a protective alliance against potential rapists. Psychological pain experienced following rape is also identified as an adaptive process designed to focus the female on the social circumstances surrounding the rape for future prevention.

Evidence for this as an adaptation can be seen in reproductive-aged women who are found to experience more psychological pain following rape due to an increased risk of conception. Research also suggests that women in the fertile phase of their menstrual cycle perform fewer risky behaviours that could potentially result in the risk of rape. Women's capacity to resist rape also changes relative to their menstrual cycle; females in the fertile phase show an increase in handgrip strength when placed in a threatening, sexually coercive scenario. Susceptibility to signs of a male's coerciveness is also identified to be better in fertile women.

Pregnancy sickness

One psychological adaptation found solely in women is pregnancy sickness. This is an adaptation resulting from natural selection for the purpose of avoiding toxic-containing foods during pregnancy. Margaret Profet, an evolutionary biologist, provides evidence for this adaptation in a literature review on pregnancy sickness. Particular plant foods, whilst unharmful to adults, can contain toxins (e.g. teratogens) that are dangerous for developing embryos and can potentially cause birth defects such as facial asymmetry. Evidence lies in the finding that women who experience more extreme cases of pregnancy sickness tend to be less likely to miscarry or have babies with birth defects. This fits the criteria for an adaptation as it enhances fitness and increases reproductive success – it results in greater fertility of the mother and contributes to the health of the developing embryo.

Researchers dispute whether this is actually a psychological adaptation, however evidence advocates it is the result of strong selective pressures in our hereditary past. For example, the toxins are found only in natural wild plant foods, not processed foods in our modern-day environment. Furthermore, pregnant women experiencing sickness have been found to avoid particular bitter or pungent smelling foods, potentially containing toxins. Pregnancy induced sickness only typically occurs 3 weeks after conception, around the time when the embryo has started forming major organs and is therefore at the highest risk. It is also a cross-cultural universal adaptation, a suggestion it is an innate mechanism.

Leif Erikson Day

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Leif Erikson Day
U.S. stamp issued on Leif Erikson Day, 1968 (featuring Reykjavík's statue of Leif)
Observed byUnited States, parts of Canada, and communities in the Nordic countries
TypeCultural
SignificanceCelebrating Leif Erikson as the first European to lead a voyage to North America
DateOctober 9
Next timeOctober 9, 2024
FrequencyAnnual
Related toLeif Erikson

Leif Erikson Day is an annual observance that occurs on October 9. It honors Leif Erikson (Old Norse: Leifr Eiríksson), the Norse explorer who, in approximately 1000, led the first Europeans believed to have set foot on the continent of North America (other than Greenland).

Because the exact date of Leif's arrival to the Americas is unknown, the October 9 date was chosen in commemoration of the Restauration's arrival to New York Harbor, carrying some of the first Norwegian immigrants to the United States. This means the holiday occurs before Columbus Day (although it is sometimes coincident with the US' observation of Columbus Day).

History

The 1874 book America Not Discovered by Columbus by Norwegian-American Rasmus B. Anderson helped popularize the idea that Vikings were the first Europeans in the New World, an idea that was verified in 1960. In his speech during the Norse-American Centennial at the Minnesota State Fair in 1925, President Calvin Coolidge gave recognition to Leif Erikson as the discoverer of America. In 1929, Wisconsin became the first U.S. state to officially adopt Leif Erikson Day as a state holiday, thanks in large part to efforts by Rasmus Anderson. In 1931, Minnesota did also. As a result of efforts by the Leif Erikson Memorial Association of Saskatchewan, the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan proclaimed—through an order-in-council in 1936—that Leif Ericsson Day would be observed on October 9. By 1956, Leif Erikson Day had been made an official observance in seven states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota, Illinois, Colorado, Washington, and California) and one Canadian province (Saskatchewan).

The federal government of the United States first recognized Leif Erikson Day in 1935 as a result of House Joint Resolution 26, which had been introduced during the 74th Congress (1935–1936) by Congressman Harry Sauthoff of Wisconsin. Originally, the resolution was written to request the US president annually proclaim October 9 as Leif Erikson Day, but it was amended in committee to be for 1935 only. After passing Congress, the legislation was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt on June 19, 1935. As requested in the joint resolution, Roosevelt then issued presidential proclamation 2135 on September 11, 1935, designating October 9 of that year as Leif Erikson Day.

Presidential Proclamation 2135 authorized, in 1935, the first US federal observance of Leif Erikson Day. Since 1964, presidential proclamations observing the day have been issued annually.

In the following decades, several unsuccessful attempts were made to pass legislation requesting Leif Erikson Day be proclaimed annually by the president. During the 88th Congress (1963–1964), various members of Congress introduced 12 different resolutions to that effect. One of these pieces of legislation, House Joint Resolution 393 (proposed by Congressman John Blatnik of Minnesota), was passed by Congress and then signed into law by President Lyndon B. Johnson on September 2, 1964, becoming Public Law 88–566. As requested by the joint resolution, President Johnson also signed Presidential Proclamation 3610 proclaiming October 9 of that year as Leif Erikson Day. Under the 1964 joint resolution, each president in the years since has issued an annual proclamation, often using the opportunity also to praise the contributions of Americans of Nordic descent generally and the spirit of discovery.

Bills have been introduced in the Parliament of Canada to observe Leif Erikson Day throughout the country, but they have failed to pass.

Date

October 9 is not associated with any particular event in Leif Erikson's life. The exact date of Leif's arrival to the Americas is unknown, but the Sagas state that it was in autumn. At the suggestion of Christian A. Hoen, October 9 was settled upon, as it took place in the fall and was already a historic date for Scandinavians in America. The date was chosen because the ship Restauration coming from Stavanger, Norway, arrived in New York Harbor on October 9, 1825, beginning a wave of immigration from Norway to the United States.

Observance

The federal government of the United States observes the holiday, and some U.S. states officially commemorate Leif Erikson Day. It is celebrated in many communities, particularly in the Upper Midwest and other places where large numbers of people from the Nordic countries settled. It has long been observed in Seattle, Washington. In 2012, the day was celebrated in Las Vegas, Nevada. Westby, Wisconsin, and Norway, Michigan, have held festivals near the day. There have been Canadian commemorations, including in Edmonton, Alberta, and Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. The day is also celebrated in Iceland.

In popular culture

The holiday was referenced in the episode "Bubble Buddy" of the Nickelodeon animated series SpongeBob SquarePants. On multiple occasions throughout the episode, characters shout "Happy Leif Erikson Day!", followed by some vaguely Norse-sounding gibberish. It is often written as "hinga dinga durgan". Forbes states that the holiday is often mainly associated online with its appearance in SpongeBob SquarePants and poses that "Perhaps this is the best way to remember the day". The episode is arguably responsible for popularizing the holiday outside of the Norwegian-American community.

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