Resource recovery

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_recovery 

Resource recovery is using wastes as an input material to create valuable products as new outputs. The aim is to reduce the amount of waste generated, thereby reducing the need for landfill space, and optimising the values created from waste. Resource recovery delays the need to use raw materials in the manufacturing process. Materials found in municipal solid waste, construction and demolition waste, commercial waste and industrial wastes can be used to recover resources for the manufacturing of new materials and products. Plastic, paper, aluminium, glass and metal are examples of where value can be found in waste.

Resource recovery goes further than just the management of waste. Resource recovery is part of a circular economy, in which the extraction of natural resources and generation of wastes are minimised, and in which materials and products are designed more sustainably for durability, reuse, repairability, remanufacturing and recycling. Life-cycle analysis (LCA) can be used to compare the resource recovery potential of different treatment technologies.

Resource recovery can also be an aim in the context of sanitation. Here, the term refers to approaches to recover the resources that are contained in wastewater and human excreta (urine and feces). The term "toilet resources" has come into use recently. Those resources include: nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), organic matter, energy and water. This concept is also referred to as ecological sanitation. Separation of waste flows can help make resource recovery simpler. Examples include keeping urine separate from feces (as in urine diversion toilets) and keeping greywater and blackwater separate.

Sources of recovery

Resource recovery can be enabled by changes in government policy and regulation, circular economy infrastructure such as improved 'binfrastructure' to promote source separation and waste collection, reuse and recycling, innovative circular business models, and valuing materials and products in terms of their economic but also their social and environmental costs and benefits. For example, organic materials can be treated by composting and anaerobic digestion and turned into energy, compost or fertilizer. Similarly, wastes currently stored in industrial landfills and around old mines can be treated with bioleaching and engineered nanoparticles to recover metals such as lithium, cobalt and vanadium for use in low-carbon technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines.

A limiting factor of resource recovery is the irrevocable loss of raw materials due to their increase in entropy in our current linear business model. Starting with the production of waste in manufacturing, the entropy increases further by mixing and diluting materials in their manufacturing assembly, followed by corrosion and wear and tear during the usage period. At the end of the life cycle, there is an exponential increase in disorder arising from the mixing of materials in landfills. As a result of this directionality of the entropy law, the potentials of resource recovery are diminishing. This further motivates a circular economy infrastructure and business model.

Solid waste

Main article: Recycling

Steel crushed and baled for recycling

Recycling is a resource recovery practice that refers to the collection and reuse of disposed materials such as empty beverage containers. The materials from which the items are made can be reprocessed into new products. Material for recycling may be collected separately from general waste using dedicated bins and collection vehicles, or sorted directly from mixed waste streams.

The most common consumer products recycled include aluminium such as beverage cans, copper such as wire, steel food and aerosol cans, old steel furnishings or equipment, polyethylene and PET bottles, glass bottles and jars, paperboard cartons, newspapers, magazines and light paper, and corrugated fiberboard boxes.

PVC, LDPE, PP, and PS (see resin identification code) are also recyclable. These items are usually composed of a single type of material, making them relatively easy to recycle into new products. The recycling of complex products (such as computers and electronic equipment) is more difficult, due to the additional dismantling and separation required.

The type of recycling material accepted varies by city and country. Each city and country have different recycling programs in place that can handle the various types of recyclable materials.

Wastewater and excreta

Main articles: Reuse of excreta, Wastewater reuse, and Ecological sanitation

Valuable resources can be recovered from wastewater, sewage sludge, fecal sludge and human excreta. These include water, energy, and fertilizing nutrients nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, as well as micro-nutrients such as sulphur and organic matter. There is also increasing interest for recovering other raw materials from wastewater, such as bioplastics and metals such as silver. Originally, wastewater systems were designed only to remove excreta and wastewater from urban areas. Water was used to flush away the waste, often discharging into nearby waterbodies. Since the 1970s, there has been increasing interest in treating the wastewater to protect the environment, and efforts focused primarily on cleaning the water at the end of the pipe.  Since around the year 2003, the concepts of ecological sanitation and sustainable sanitation have emerged with the focus on recovering resources from wastewater. As of 2016, the term "toilet resources" came into use, and encouraged more attention to the potential for resource recovery from toilets.

The following resources can be recovered:

• Water: In many water-scarce areas there are increasing pressures to recover water from wastewater. In 2006, the World Health Organization, in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), developed guidelines for safe use of wastewater. In addition, many national governments have their own regulations regarding the use of recovered water. Singapore for example aims to recover enough water from its wastewater systems to meet the water needs of half the city. They call this NEWater. Another related concept for wastewater reuse is sewer mining.
• Energy: The production of biogas from wastewater sludge is now common practice at wastewater treatment plants. In addition, a number of methods have been researched regarding use of wastewater sludge and excreta as fuel sources.
• Fertilizing nutrients: Human excreta contains nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and other micronutrients that are needed for agricultural production. These can be recovered through chemical precipitation or stripping processes, or simply by use of the wastewater or sewage sludge. However, reuse of sewage sludge poses risks due to high concentrations of undesirable compounds, such as heavy metals, environmental persistent pharmaceutical pollutants and other chemicals. Since the majority of fertilizing nutrients are found in excreta, it can be useful to separate the excreta fractions of wastewater (e.g. toilet waste) from the rest of the wastewater flows. This reduces the risk for undesirable compounds and reduces the volume that needs to be treated before applying recovered nutrients in agricultural production.

Other methods are also being developed for transforming wastewater into valuable products. Growing Black Soldier Flies in excreta or organic waste can produce fly larvae as a protein feed. Other researchers are harvesting fatty acids from wastewater to make bioplastics.

Organic matter

Main articles: Composting, Home composting, Anaerobic digestion, and Microbial fuel cell

An active compost heap

Disposed materials that are organic in nature, such as plant material, food scraps, and paper products, can be recycled using biological composting and digestion processes to decompose the organic matter. The resulting organic material is then recycled as mulch or compost for agricultural or landscaping purposes. In addition, waste gas from the process (such as methane) can be captured and used for generating electricity and heat (CHP/cogeneration) maximising efficiencies. The intention of biological processing is to control and accelerate the natural process of decomposition of organic matter.

There is a large variety of composting and digestion methods and technologies varying in complexity from simple home compost heaps, to small town scale batch digesters, industrial-scale enclosed-vessel digestion of mixed domestic waste (see mechanical biological treatment). Methods of biological decomposition are differentiated as being aerobic or anaerobic methods, though hybrids of the two methods also exist.

Anaerobic digestion of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (MSW) has been found to be more environmentally effective, than landfill, incineration or pyrolysis. Life cycle analysis (LCA) was used to compare different technologies. The resulting biogas (methane) though must be used for cogeneration (electricity and heat preferably on or close to the site of production) and can be used with a little upgrading in gas combustion engines or turbines. With further upgrading to synthetic natural gas it can be injected into the natural gas network or further refined to hydrogen for use in stationary cogeneration fuel cells. Its use in fuel cells eliminates the pollution from products of combustion. There is a large variety of composting and digestion methods and technologies varying in complexity from simple home compost heaps, to small town scale batch digesters, industrial-scale, enclosed-vessel digestion of mixed domestic waste (see mechanical biological treatment).

Industrial waste

Waste valorization, beneficial reuse, value recovery or waste reclamation is the process of waste products or residues from an economic process being valorized (given economic value), by reuse or recycling in order to create economically useful materials. The term comes from practices in sustainable manufacturing and economics, industrial ecology and waste management. The term is usually applied in industrial processes where residue from creating or processing one good is used as a raw material or energy feedstock for another industrial process. Industrial wastes in particular are good candidates for valorization because they tend to be more consistent and predictable than other waste, such as household waste.

Increased regulation of residual materials and socioeconomic changes, such as the introduction of ideas about sustainable development and circular economy in the 1990s and 2000s increased focus on industrial practices to recover resources as value add materials.

Recovery methods

In many countries, source-separated curbside collection is one method of resource recovery.

Australia

In Australia, households are provided with several bins: one for recycling (yellow lid), another for general waste (usually a red lid) and another for garden materials (green lid). The garden recycling bin is provided by the municipality if requested. Some localities have dual-stream recycling, with paper collected in bags or boxes and all other materials in a recycling bin. In either case, the recovered materials are trucked to a materials recovery facility for further processing.

Municipal, commercial and industrial, construction and demolition debris is dumped at landfills and some is recycled. Household disposal materials are segregated: recyclables sorted and made into new products, and unusable material is dumped in landfill areas. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the recycling rate is high and is "increasing, with 99% of households reporting that they had recycled or reused within the past year (2003 survey), up from 85% in 1992". In 2002–03 "30% of materials from municipalities, 45% from commercial and industrial generators and 57% from construction and demolition debris" was recycled. Energy is produced is part of resource recovery as well: some landfill gas is captured for fuel or electricity generation, although this is considered the last resort, as the point of resource recovery is avoidance of landfill disposal altogether.

Sustainability

Resource recovery is a key component in a business' ability to maintaining ISO14001 accreditation. Companies are encouraged to improve their environmental efficiencies each year. One way to do this is by changing a company from a system of managing wastes to a resource recovery system (such as recycling: glass, food waste, paper and cardboard, plastic bottles etc.)

Education and awareness in the area of resource recovery is increasingly important from a global perspective of resource management. The Talloires Declaration is a declaration for sustainability concerned about the unprecedented scale and speed of environmental pollution and degradation, and the depletion of natural resources. Local, regional, and global air pollution; accumulation and distribution of toxic wastes; destruction and depletion of forests, soil, and water; depletion of the ozone layer and emission of "green house" gases threaten the survival of humans and thousands of other living species, the integrity of the earth and its biodiversity, the security of nations, and the heritage of future generations. Several universities have implemented the Talloires Declaration by establishing environmental management and resource recovery programs. University and vocational education are promoted by various organizations, e.g., WAMITAB and Chartered Institution of Wastes Management. Many supermarkets encourage customers to use their reverse vending machines to deposit used purchased containers and receive a refund from the recycling fees. Brands that manufacture such machines include Tomra and Envipco.

In 2010, CNBC aired the documentary Trash Inc: The Secret Life of Garbage about waste, what happens to it when it is "thrown away", and its impact on the world.

The United Nations set 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 2015. SDG 12, for "responsible consumption and production", measures progress against 11 targets with 13 indicators. Targets 3, 4, and 5 focus on waste generation across food and chemicals.

Extended producer responsibility

Extended producer responsibility (EPR) is a pricing strategy that promotes integrating all costs associated with a given product throughout its life cycle. Having the market price also reflect the "end-of-life disposal costs" encourages more accuracy in pricing. Extended producer responsibility is meant to impose accountability over the entire lifecycle of products, from production, to packaging, to transport and disposal or reuse. EPR requires firms that manufacture, import and/or sell products to be responsible for those products throughout the life and disposal or reuse of products.

Global catastrophic risk

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk

Artist's impression of a major asteroid impact. An asteroid caused the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs.

A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, endangering or even destroying modern civilization. Existential risk is a related term limited to events that could cause full-blown human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential.

In the 21st century, a number of academic and non-profit organizations have been established to research global catastrophic and existential risks, formulate potential mitigation measures, and either advocate for or implement these measures.

Definition and classification

Scope–severity grid from Bostrom's paper "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority"

Defining global catastrophic risks

The term global catastrophic risk "lacks a sharp definition", and generally refers (loosely) to a risk that could inflict "serious damage to human well-being on a global scale".

Humanity has suffered large catastrophes before. Some of these have caused serious damage but were only local in scope—e.g. the Black Death may have resulted in the deaths of a third of Europe's population, 10% of the global population at the time. Some were global, but were not as severe—e.g. the 1918 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 3–6% of the world's population. Most global catastrophic risks would not be so intense as to kill the majority of life on earth, but even if one did, the ecosystem and humanity would eventually recover (in contrast to existential risks).

Similarly, in Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Richard Posner singles out and groups together events that bring about "utter overthrow or ruin" on a global, rather than a "local or regional" scale. Posner highlights such events as worthy of special attention on cost–benefit grounds because they could directly or indirectly jeopardize the survival of the human race as a whole.

Defining existential risks

Existential risks are defined as "risks that threaten the destruction of humanity's long-term potential." The instantiation of an existential risk (an existential catastrophe) would either cause outright human extinction or irreversibly lock in a drastically inferior state of affairs. Existential risks are a sub-class of global catastrophic risks, where the damage is not only global but also terminal and permanent, preventing recovery and thereby affecting both current and all future generations.

Non-extinction risks

While extinction is the most obvious way in which humanity's long-term potential could be destroyed, there are others, including unrecoverable collapse and unrecoverable dystopia. A disaster severe enough to cause the permanent, irreversible collapse of human civilisation would constitute an existential catastrophe, even if it fell short of extinction. Similarly, if humanity fell under a totalitarian regime, and there were no chance of recovery, then such a dystopia would also be an existential catastrophe. Bryan Caplan writes that "perhaps an eternity of totalitarianism would be worse than extinction". (George Orwell's novel Nineteen Eighty-Four suggests an example.) A dystopian scenario shares the key features of extinction and unrecoverable collapse of civilization: before the catastrophe humanity faced a vast range of bright futures to choose from; after the catastrophe, humanity is locked forever in a terrible state.

Potential sources of risk

Main article: Global catastrophe scenarios

Potential global catastrophic risks are conventionally classified as anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic hazards. Examples of non-anthropogenic risks are an asteroid or comet impact event, a supervolcanic eruption, a natural pandemic, a lethal gamma-ray burst, a geomagnetic storm from a coronal mass ejection destroying electronic equipment, natural long-term climate change, hostile extraterrestrial life, or the Sun transforming into a red giant star and engulfing the Earth billions of years in the future.

Arrangement of global catastrophic risks into three sets according to whether they are largely human-caused, human influences upon nature, or purely natural

Anthropogenic risks are those caused by humans and include those related to technology, governance, and climate change. Technological risks include the creation of artificial intelligence misaligned with human goals, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. Insufficient or malign global governance creates risks in the social and political domain, such as global war and nuclear holocaust, biological warfare and bioterrorism using genetically modified organisms, cyberwarfare and cyberterrorism destroying critical infrastructure like the electrical grid, or radiological warfare using weapons such as large cobalt bombs. Other global catastrophic risks include climate change, environmental degradation, extinction of species, famine as a result of non-equitable resource distribution, human overpopulation or underpopulation, crop failures, and non-sustainable agriculture.  Experts are also increasingly worried about cascading risks, the use of AI for bioengineering or in nuclear weapons systems, and a variety of other threats.

Methodological challenges

Research into the nature and mitigation of global catastrophic risks and existential risks is subject to a unique set of challenges and, as a result, is not easily subjected to the usual standards of scientific rigour. For instance, it is neither feasible nor ethical to study these risks experimentally. Carl Sagan expressed this with regards to nuclear war: "Understanding the long-term consequences of nuclear war is not a problem amenable to experimental verification". Moreover, many catastrophic risks change rapidly as technology advances and background conditions, such as geopolitical conditions, change. Another challenge is the general difficulty of accurately predicting the future over long timescales, especially for anthropogenic risks which depend on complex human political, economic and social systems. In addition to known and tangible risks, unforeseeable black swan extinction events may occur, presenting an additional methodological problem.

Lack of historical precedent

Humanity has never suffered an existential catastrophe and if one were to occur, it would necessarily be unprecedented. Therefore, existential risks pose unique challenges to prediction, even more than other long-term events, because of observation selection effects. Unlike with most events, the failure of a complete extinction event to occur in the past is not evidence against their likelihood in the future, because every world that has experienced such an extinction event has gone unobserved by humanity. Regardless of civilization collapsing events' frequency, no civilization observes existential risks in its history. These anthropic issues may partly be avoided by looking at evidence that does not have such selection effects, such as asteroid impact craters on the Moon, or directly evaluating the likely impact of new technology.

To understand the dynamics of an unprecedented, unrecoverable global civilizational collapse (a type of existential risk), it may be instructive to study the various local civilizational collapses that have occurred throughout human history. For instance, civilizations such as the Roman Empire have ended in a loss of centralized governance and a major civilization-wide loss of infrastructure and advanced technology. However, these examples demonstrate that societies appear to be fairly resilient to catastrophe; for example, Medieval Europe survived the Black Death without suffering anything resembling a civilization collapse despite losing 25 to 50 percent of its population.

Incentives and coordination

There are economic reasons that can explain why so little effort is going into global catastrophic risk reduction. First, it is speculative and may never happen, so many people focus on other more pressing issues. It is also a global public good, so we should expect it to be undersupplied by markets. Even if a large nation invested in risk mitigation measures, that nation would enjoy only a small fraction of the benefit of doing so. Furthermore, global catastrophic risk reduction can be thought of as an intergenerational global public good. Since most of the hypothetical benefits of the reduction would be enjoyed by future generations, and though these future people would perhaps be willing to pay substantial sums for risk reduction, no mechanism for such a transaction exists.

Cognitive biases

Numerous cognitive biases can influence people's judgment of the importance of existential risks, including scope insensitivity, hyperbolic discounting, the availability heuristic, the conjunction fallacy, the affect heuristic, and the overconfidence effect.

Scope insensitivity influences how bad people consider the extinction of the human race to be. For example, when people are motivated to donate money to altruistic causes, the quantity they are willing to give does not increase linearly with the magnitude of the issue: people are roughly as willing to prevent the deaths of 200,000 or 2,000 birds. Similarly, people are often more concerned about threats to individuals than to larger groups.

Eliezer Yudkowsky theorizes that scope neglect plays a role in public perception of existential risks:

Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the entire human species, seem to trigger a different mode of thinking... People who would never dream of hurting a child hear of existential risk, and say, "Well, maybe the human species doesn't really deserve to survive".

All past predictions of human extinction have proven to be false. To some, this makes future warnings seem less credible. Nick Bostrom argues that the absence of human extinction in the past is weak evidence that there will be no human extinction in the future, due to survivor bias and other anthropic effects.

Sociobiologist E. O. Wilson argued that: "The reason for this myopic fog, evolutionary biologists contend, is that it was actually advantageous during all but the last few millennia of the two million years of existence of the genus Homo... A premium was placed on close attention to the near future and early reproduction, and little else. Disasters of a magnitude that occur only once every few centuries were forgotten or transmuted into myth."

Proposed mitigation

Multi-layer defense

Defense in depth is a useful framework for categorizing risk mitigation measures into three layers of defense:

1. Prevention: Reducing the probability of a catastrophe occurring in the first place. Example: Measures to prevent outbreaks of new highly infectious diseases.
2. Response: Preventing the scaling of a catastrophe to the global level. Example: Measures to prevent escalation of a small-scale nuclear exchange into an all-out nuclear war.
3. Resilience: Increasing humanity's resilience (against extinction) when faced with global catastrophes. Example: Measures to increase food security during a nuclear winter.

Human extinction is most likely when all three defenses are weak, that is, "by risks we are unlikely to prevent, unlikely to successfully respond to, and unlikely to be resilient against".

The unprecedented nature of existential risks poses a special challenge in designing risk mitigation measures since humanity will not be able to learn from a track record of previous events.

Funding

Some researchers argue that both research and other initiatives relating to existential risk are underfunded. Nick Bostrom states that more research has been done on Star Trek, snowboarding, or dung beetles than on existential risks. Bostrom's comparisons have been criticized as "high-handed". As of 2020, the Biological Weapons Convention organization had an annual budget of US$1.4 million.

Survival planning

Some scholars propose the establishment on Earth of one or more self-sufficient, remote, permanently occupied settlements specifically created for the purpose of surviving a global disaster. Economist Robin Hanson argues that a refuge permanently housing as few as 100 people would significantly improve the chances of human survival during a range of global catastrophes.

Food storage has been proposed globally, but the monetary cost would be high. Furthermore, it would likely contribute to the current millions of deaths per year due to malnutrition. In 2022, a team led by David Denkenberger modeled the cost-effectiveness of resilient foods to artificial general intelligence (AGI) safety and found "~98-99% confidence" for a higher marginal impact of work on resilient foods. Some survivalists stock survival retreats with multiple-year food supplies.

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault is buried 400 feet (120 m) inside a mountain on an island in the Arctic. It is designed to hold 2.5 billion seeds from more than 100 countries as a precaution to preserve the world's crops. The surrounding rock is −6 °C (21 °F) (as of 2015) but the vault is kept at −18 °C (0 °F) by refrigerators powered by locally sourced coal.

More speculatively, if society continues to function and if the biosphere remains habitable, calorie needs for the present human population might in theory be met during an extended absence of sunlight, given sufficient advance planning. Conjectured solutions include growing mushrooms on the dead plant biomass left in the wake of the catastrophe, converting cellulose to sugar, or feeding natural gas to methane-digesting bacteria.

Global catastrophic risks and global governance

Insufficient global governance creates risks in the social and political domain, but the governance mechanisms develop more slowly than technological and social change. There are concerns from governments, the private sector, and the general public about the lack of governance mechanisms to efficiently deal with risks, negotiate and adjudicate between diverse and conflicting interests. This is further underlined by an understanding of the interconnectedness of global systemic risks. In absence or anticipation of global governance, national governments can act individually to better understand, mitigate and prepare for global catastrophes.

Climate emergency plans

In 2018, the Club of Rome called for greater climate change action and published its Climate Emergency Plan, which proposes ten action points to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Further, in 2019, the Club published the more comprehensive Planetary Emergency Plan.

There is evidence to suggest that collectively engaging with the emotional experiences that emerge during contemplating the vulnerability of the human species within the context of climate change allows for these experiences to be adaptive. When collective engaging with and processing emotional experiences is supportive, this can lead to growth in resilience, psychological flexibility, tolerance of emotional experiences, and community engagement.

Space colonization

Main article: Space and survival

Space colonization is a proposed alternative to improve the odds of surviving an extinction scenario. Solutions of this scope may require megascale engineering.

Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking advocated colonizing other planets within the Solar System once technology progresses sufficiently, in order to improve the chance of human survival from planet-wide events such as global thermonuclear war.

Organizations

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (est. 1945) is one of the oldest global risk organizations, founded after the public became alarmed by the potential of atomic warfare in the aftermath of WWII. It studies risks associated with nuclear war and energy and famously maintains the Doomsday Clock established in 1947. The Foresight Institute (est. 1986) examines the risks of nanotechnology and its benefits. It was one of the earliest organizations to study the unintended consequences of otherwise harmless technology gone haywire at a global scale. It was founded by K. Eric Drexler who postulated "grey goo".

Beginning after 2000, a growing number of scientists, philosophers and tech billionaires created organizations devoted to studying global risks both inside and outside of academia.

Independent non-governmental organizations (NGOs) include the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (est. 2000), which aims to reduce the risk of a catastrophe caused by artificial intelligence, with donors including Peter Thiel and Jed McCaleb. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (est. 2001) seeks to reduce global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical threats, and containment of damage after an event. It maintains a nuclear material security index. The Lifeboat Foundation (est. 2009) funds research into preventing a technological catastrophe. Most of the research money funds projects at universities. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (est. 2011) is a US-based non-profit, non-partisan think tank founded by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett. GCRI does research and policy work across various risks, including artificial intelligence, nuclear war, climate change, and asteroid impacts. The Global Challenges Foundation (est. 2012), based in Stockholm and founded by Laszlo Szombatfalvy, releases a yearly report on the state of global risks. The Future of Life Institute (est. 2014) works to reduce extreme, large-scale risks from transformative technologies, as well as steer the development and use of these technologies to benefit all life, through grantmaking, policy advocacy in the United States, European Union and United Nations, and educational outreach. Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin and Jaan Tallinn are some of its biggest donors.

University-based organizations included the Future of Humanity Institute (est. 2005) which researched the questions of humanity's long-term future, particularly existential risk. It was founded by Nick Bostrom and was based at Oxford University. The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (est. 2012) is a Cambridge University-based organization which studies four major technological risks: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, global warming and warfare. All are man-made risks, as Huw Price explained to the AFP news agency, "It seems a reasonable prediction that some time in this or the next century intelligence will escape from the constraints of biology". He added that when this happens "we're no longer the smartest things around," and will risk being at the mercy of "machines that are not malicious, but machines whose interests don't include us." Stephen Hawking was an acting adviser. The Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere is a Stanford University-based organization focusing on many issues related to global catastrophe by bringing together members of academia in the humanities. It was founded by Paul Ehrlich, among others. Stanford University also has the Center for International Security and Cooperation focusing on political cooperation to reduce global catastrophic risk.^[76] The Center for Security and Emerging Technology was established in January 2019 at Georgetown's Walsh School of Foreign Service and will focus on policy research of emerging technologies with an initial emphasis on artificial intelligence. They received a grant of 55M USD from Good Ventures as suggested by Open Philanthropy.

Other risk assessment groups are based in or are part of governmental organizations. The World Health Organization (WHO) includes a division called the Global Alert and Response (GAR) which monitors and responds to global epidemic crisis. GAR helps member states with training and coordination of response to epidemics. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has its Emerging Pandemic Threats Program which aims to prevent and contain naturally generated pandemics at their source. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a division called the Global Security Principal Directorate which researches on behalf of the government issues such as bio-security and counter-terrorism.

Speculative evolution

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculative_evolution 

A mock taxidermy of a rhinograde, using its nasorium to catch fish. Rhinogrades, created by Gerolf Steiner in 1957, are one of the earliest concrete examples of speculative zoology.

Speculative evolution is a subgenre of science fiction and an artistic movement focused on hypothetical scenarios in the evolution of life, and a significant form of fictional biology. It is also known as speculative biology and it is referred to as speculative zoology in regards to hypothetical animals. Works incorporating speculative evolution may have entirely conceptual species that evolve on a planet other than Earth, or they may be an alternate history focused on an alternate evolution of terrestrial life. Speculative evolution is often considered hard science fiction because of its strong connection to and basis in science, particularly biology.

Speculative evolution is a long-standing trope within science fiction, often recognized as beginning as such with H. G. Wells's 1895 novel The Time Machine, which featured several imaginary future creatures. Although small-scale speculative faunas were a hallmark of science fiction throughout the 20th century, ideas were only rarely well-developed, with some exceptions such as Stanley Weinbaum's Planetary series, Edgar Rice Burroughs's Barsoom, a fictional rendition of Mars and its ecosystem published through novels from 1912 to 1948, and Amtor, a fictional rendition of Venus and its ecosystem published through novels from 1934 to 1964, and Gerolf Steiner's Rhinogradentia, a fictional order of mammals created in 1957.

The modern speculative evolution movement is generally agreed to have begun with the publication of Dougal Dixon's 1981 book After Man, which explored a fully realized future Earth with a complete ecosystem of over a hundred hypothetical animals. The success of After Man spawned several "sequels" by Dixon, focusing on different alternate and future scenarios. Dixon's work, like most similar works that came after them, were created with real biological principles in mind and were aimed at exploring real life processes, such as evolution and climate change, through the use of fictional examples.

Speculative evolution's possible use as an educational and scientific tool has been noted and discussed through the decades following the publication of After Man. Speculative evolution can be useful in exploring and showcasing patterns present in the present and in the past. By extrapolating past trends into the future, scientists can research and predict the most likely scenarios of how certain organisms and lineages could respond to ecological changes. In some cases, attributes and creatures first imagined within speculative evolution have since been discovered. A filter feeder radiodont was illustrated by artist John Meszaros in the 2013 book All Your Yesterdays by John Conway, C. M. Kosemen and Darren Naish. In the year following publication, a taxonomic study proved the existence of the filter feeding radiodont Tamisiocaris.

History

Early works

The Time Machine (1895) by H. G. Wells is seen by some as an early instance of speculative evolution and has been cited as an inspiration by later creators within the field.

Explorations of hypothetical worlds featuring future, alternate or alien lifeforms is a long-standing trope in science fiction. One of the earliest works usually recognized as representing one of speculative evolution is H. G. Wells's science fiction novel The Time Machine, published in 1895. The Time Machine, set over eight hundred thousand years in the future, features post-human descendants in the form of the beautiful but weak Eloi and the brutish Morlocks. Further into the future, the protagonist of the book finds large crab-monsters and huge butterflies. Science fiction authors who wrote after Wells often used fictional creatures in the same vein, but most such imaginary faunas were small and not very developed.

A four-armed "Green Martian" riding a "thoat" from Edgar Rice Burroughs's Barsoom, a fictional version of the planet Mars. Illustration by James Allen St. John (1920).

Edgar Rice Burroughs, who wrote in the early 20th century, can like Wells be considered an early speculative evolution author. Although his fictional ecosystems were still relatively small in scope, they were the settings of many of his novels and as such quite well-developed. In particular, Burroughs's Barsoom, a fictional version of the planet Mars which appeared in ten novels published from 1912 to 1948, featured a Martian ecosystem with a variety of alien creatures and several distinct Martian cultures and ethnic groups, as well as Amtor, a fictional version of the planet Venus which appeared in five novels published from 1934 to 1964, also featured a Venusian ecosystem with a variety of alien creatures and several distinct Venusian cultures and ethnic groups. Stanley Weinbaum's Planetary series also includes significantly conceptualized and developed alien life. Frederik Pohl wrote that before Weinbaum, science fiction's aliens "might be catmen, lizard-men, antmen, plantmen or rockmen; but they were, always and incurably, men. Weinbaum changed that. ... it was the difference in orientation – in drives, goals and thought processes – that made the Weinbaum-type alien so fresh and rewarding in science fiction in the mid-thirties."

In 1930, Olaf Stapledon published a "future history", Last and First Men: A Story of the Near and Far Future, describing the history of humanity from the present onwards, across two billion years and eighteen human species, of which Homo sapiens is the first. Besides conventional environment-driven evolution -during which offshoots of humanity experienced both elevated and the total loss of sentience - the book anticipates the science of genetic engineering, and is an early instance of the fictional group mind idea. Published in 1957, German zoologist Gerolf Steiner's book Bau und Leben der Rhinogradentia (translated into English as The Snouters: The Form and Life of the Rhinogrades) described the fictional evolution, biology and behavior of an imaginary order of mammals, the Rhinogradentia or "rhinogrades". The Rhinogrades are characterized by a nose-like feature called a "nasorium", the form and function of which vary significantly between species, akin to Darwin's finches and their beak specialization. This diverse group of fictional animals inhabits a series of islands in which they have gradually evolved, radiating into most ecological niches. Satirical papers have been published continuing Steiner's imagined world. Although the work does feature an entire speculative ecosystem, its impact is dwarfed by the later works due to its limited scope, only exploring the life of an island archipelago.

In 1976, the Italian author and illustrator Leo Lionni published Parallel Botany, a "field guide to imaginary plants", presented with academic-style mentions of genuine people and places. Parallel Botany has been compared to the 1972 book Invisible Cities by Italo Calvino, in which Marco Polo in a dialogue with Kublai Khan describes 55 cities, which, like Lionni's "parallel" plants, are "only as real as the mind's ability to conceptualize them".

Movement

Author Dougal Dixon with a model of a "Strida", one of the creatures featured in his 2010 book Greenworld.

One of the significant "founding" works of speculative evolution is After Man by Dougal Dixon, published in 1981. To this day, After Man is recognized as the first truly large-scale speculative evolution project involving a whole world and a vast array of species. Furthering its significance is the fact that the book was made very accessible by being published by mainstream publishers and being fully illustrated with color images. As such, After Man is often seen as having firmly established the idea of creating entire speculative worlds. Through the decades following After Man's publication, Dixon remained one of the sole authors of speculative evolution, publishing two more books in the same vein as After Man; The New Dinosaurs in 1988 and Man After Man in 1990. Dixon cited The Time Machine as his primary inspiration, being unaware of Steiner's work, and devised After Man as a popular-level book on the processes of evolution that instead of using the past to tell the story projected the processes into the future. A central idea of After Man, besides a wave of extinction following humans, is convergent evolution as new species bear a close resemblance to their unrelated predecessors.

When designing the various animals of the book, Dixon looked at the different types of biomes on the planet and what adaptations animals living there have, designing new animals descended from modern day ones with the same set of adaptations. The success of After Man inspired Dixon to continue writing books that explained factual scientific processes through fictional examples. The New Dinosaurs was in essence a book about zoogeography, something the general public would be unfamiliar with, using a world in which the non-avian dinosaurs had not gone extinct. Man After Man, explored climate change over the course of the next few million years by showcasing its effects through the eyes of future human descendants.

Today, many artists and writers work on speculative evolution projects online, often in the same vein as Dixon's works. Speculative evolution continues to endure a somewhat mainstream presence through films and TV shows featuring hypothetical and imaginary creatures, such as The Future is Wild (2002), Primeval (2007–2011), Avatar (2009), Terra Nova (2011), and Alien Worlds (2020). The modern explosion of speculative evolution has been termed by British paleontologist Darren Naish as the "Speculative Zoology Movement".

As an educational and scientific tool

Reconstruction of frontal appendage of Tamisiocaris, a radiodont from the Cambrian which was discovered to have been a filter-feeder in 2014. A hypothetical filter-feeding radiodont was featured in the book All Your Yesterdays (2013).

Although primarily characterized as entertainment, speculative evolution can be used as educational tool to explain and illustrate real natural processes through using fictional and imaginary examples. The worlds created are often built on ecological and biological principles inferred from the real evolutionary history of life on Earth and readers can learn from them as such. For example, all of Dixon's speculative works are aimed at exploring real processes, with After Man exploring evolution, The New Dinosaurs zoogeography and both Man After Man and Greenworld (2010) exploring climate change, offering an environmental message.

In some cases, speculative evolution artists have successfully predicted the existence of organisms that were later discovered to resemble something real. Many of the animals featured in Dixon's After Man are still considered plausible ideas, with some of them (such as specialized rodents and semi-aquatic primates) being reinforced with recent biology studies. A creature dubbed "Ceticaris", conceived by artist John Meszaros as a filter-feeding radiodont, was published in the 2013 book All Your Yesterdays, and in 2014, the actual Cambrian radiodont Tamisiocaris was discovered to have been a filter-feeder. In honor of Meszaros's prediction, Tamisiocaris was included in a new clade named the Cetiocaridae.

Dougal Dixon's The New Dinosaurs was heavily influenced by paleontological ideas developing during its time, such as the ongoing dinosaur renaissance, and as such many of the dinosaurs in the book are energetic and active creatures rather than sluggish and lumbering. Dixon extrapolated on the ideas of paleontologists such as Robert Bakker and Gregory S. Paul when creating his creatures and also used patterns seen in the actual evolutionary history of the dinosaurs and pushing them to an extreme. Perhaps because of this, many of the animals in the book are similar to actual Mesozoic animals that were later discovered. Many of the dinosaurs in it are feathered, something not widely accepted at the time of its publication but seen as likely today. Similarly, After Man in 1981 represents a sort of time capsule of geological thought before global warming was fully discerned, but Dixon also portrays a sixth mass extinction or Anthropocene before it was commonplace to do so.

Hypothetical restoration of Dromaeosauroides bornholmensis, which is known from two teeth. Its appearance is inferred from related genera.

Speculative reconstruction of Sinopliosaurus fusuiensis with generalized spinosaurid morphology, and unique coloration pattern.

Speculative evolution can be useful in exploring and showcasing patterns present in the present and in the past, and there is a useful aspect to hypothesizing on the form of future and alien life. By extrapolating past trends into the future, scientists could research and predict the most likely scenarios of how certain organisms and lineages could respond to ecological changes. As such, speculative evolution facilitates authors and artists to develop realistic hypotheses of the future. In some scientific fields, speculation is essential in understanding what is being studied. Paleontologists apply their own understanding of natural processes and biology to understand the appearances and lifestyles of extinct organisms that are discovered, varying in how far their speculation goes. For instance, All Yesterdays and its sequel All Your Yesterdays (2017) explores highly speculative renditions of real (and in some cases hypothetical) prehistoric animals that do not explicitly contradict any of the recovered fossil material. The speculation undertaken for All Yesterdays and its sequel has been compared to that of Dixon's speculative evolution works, though its objective was to challenge modern conservative perceptions and ideas of how dinosaurs and other prehistoric creatures lived, rather than designing whole new ecosystems. The books have inspired a modern artistic movement of artists going beyond conventional paleoart tropes, expanding into increasingly speculative renditions of prehistoric life.

Additionally, the evolutionary history of fictional organisms has been used as a tool in biology education. Caminalcules, named after Joseph H. Camin, are a group of animal-like lifeforms, consisting of 77 purported extant and fossil species that were invented as a tool for understanding phylogenetics. The classification of Caminalcules, as well as other fictional creatures such as dragons and aliens, have been used as analogies to teach concepts in evolution and systematics.

Speculative evolution is sometimes presented in museum exhibitions. For instance, both After Man and The Future is Wild has been presented in exhibition form, educating museum visitors on the principles of biology and evolution through using their own fictional future creatures.

Subsets

Extraterrestrial life

See also: Astrobiology, Xenobiology, and Extraterrestrials in fiction

A popular subset of speculative evolution is the exploration of possible realistic extraterrestrial life and ecosystems. Speculative evolution writings focusing on extraterrestrial life, like the blog Furahan Biology, use realistic scientific principles to describe the biomechanics of hypothetical alien life. Although commonly identified with terms such as "astrobiology", "xenobiology" or "exobiology", these terms designate actual scientific fields. Though 20th century work in exobiology sometimes formulated "audacious" ideas about extraterrestrial forms of life. Astrophysicists Carl Sagan and Edwin Salpeter speculated that a "hunters, floaters and sinkers" ecosystem could populate the atmospheres of gas giant planets like Jupiter, and scientifically described it in a 1976 paper.

In extraterrestrial-focused speculative biology, lifeforms are often designed with the intention to populate planets wildly different from Earth, and in such cases concerns like chemistry, astronomy and the laws of physics become just as important to consider as the usual biological principles. Very exotic environments of physical extremes may be explored in such scenarios. For example, Robert Forward's 1980 Dragon's Egg develops a tale of life on a neutron star, and the resulting high-gravity, high-energy environment with an atmosphere of iron vapor and mountains 5-100 millimeters high. Once the star cools down and stable chemistry develops, life evolves extremely quickly, and Forward imagines a civilization of "cheela" that lives a million times faster than humans.

In some cases, artists and writers exploring possible alien life conjure similar ideas independent of each other, often attributed to studying the same biological processes and ideas. Such occasions can be called "convergent speculation", similar to the scientific idea of convergent evolution.

Tytge Sea Leviathan (the creature in the center), from the sci-fi franchise Infinity Horizon.

Perhaps the most famous speculative work on a hypothetical alien ecosystem is Wayne Barlowe's 1990 book Expedition, which explores the fictional exoplanet Darwin IV. Expedition was written as a report of a 24th-century expedition that had been led to the planet by a team composed of both humans and intelligent aliens and used paintings and descriptive texts to create and describe a fully realized extraterrestrial ecosystem. Barlowe later served as an executive producer of a TV adaptation of the book, Alien Planet (2005) where exploration of Darwin IV is instead carried out by robotic probes and the segments detailing the ecosystems of the planet are intercut with interviews with scientists, such as Michio Kaku, Jack Horner and James B. Garvin.

Other examples of speculative evolution focused on extraterrestrial life include Dougal Dixon's 2010 book Greenworld, TV programmes such as 1997 the BBC2/Discovery Channel special Natural History of an Alien and the 2005 Channel 4/National Geographic programme Extraterrestrial as well as a variety of personal web-based artistic projects, such as C. M. Kosemen's "Snaiad" and Gert van Dijk's "Furaha", envisioning the biosphere of entire alien worlds.

Through science fiction, the speculative biology of extraterrestrial organisms has a strong presence in popular culture. The eponymous monster of Alien (1979), particularly its life cycle from egg to parasitoid larva to 'Xenomorph', is thought to be based on the real habits of parasitoid wasps in biology. Further, H. R. Giger's design of the Alien incorporated the features of insects, echinoderms and fossil crinoids, while concept artist John Cobb suggested acid blood as a biological defense mechanism. James Cameron's 2009 film Avatar constructed a fictional biosphere full of original, speculative alien species; a team of experts ensured that the lifeforms were scientifically plausible. The creatures of the movie took inspiration from Earth species as diverse as pterosaurs, microraptors, great white sharks, wolves, coyotes, and panthers, and combined their traits to create an alien world. Darren Naish praised the creature design of 2022's Avatar: The Way of Water as well, admitting suspension of disbelief on the humanoid Na'vi protagonists. He notes the other creatures, aliens and their anatomies and lifestyles are inspired by evolution and ecology to a significant degree, with probable inspirations such as mycorrhizal fungi, marine reptiles, and simian evolution. According to Naish, "the series will be a mainstay in discussions about creature design and speculative biology for some time yet."

Alternative evolution

Speculative zoology can examine sometimes overlooked prehistoric animals in an evolutionary context. The Speculative Dinosaur Project focused as much on mammals, squamates, and crocodylomorphs as on dinosaurs. Pictured are metatherian marsupials that have converged on our universes' mustelids.

Similar to alternate history, alternative evolution is the exploration of possible alternate scenarios that could have played out in the Earth's past to give rise to alternate lifeforms and ecosystems, popularly the survival of non-avian dinosaurs to the present day. As humanity is often not a part of the worlds envisioned through alternative evolution, it has sometimes been characterized as non-anthropocentric.

Although dinosaurs surviving to the age of humans has been adapted as a plot point in numerous science fiction stories since at least 1912, beginning with Arthur Conan Doyle's The Lost World, the idea of exploring the fully fledged alternate ecosystems that would develop in such a scenario truly began with the publication of Dixon's The New Dinosaurs in 1988, in which dinosaurs were not some lone stragglers of known species that had survived more or less unchanged for the last 66 million years, but diverse animals that had continued to evolve beyond the Cretaceous. In the vein of Dixon's The New Dinosaurs imagination, a now largely defunct, but creatively significant collaborative online project the Speculative Dinosaur Project followed in the same zoological worldbuilding tradition.

Since 1988, alternative evolution has sometimes been applied in popular culture. The creatures in the 2005 film King Kong were fictitious descendants of real animals, with Skull Island being inhabited by dinosaurs and other prehistoric fauna. Inspired by Dougal Dixon's works, the designers imagined what 65 million years or more of isolated evolution might have done to dinosaurs. Concept art for the film was published in the book The World of Kong: A Natural History of Skull Island (2005), which explored the world of the film from a biological perspective, envisioning Skull Island as a surviving fragment of ancient Gondwana. Prehistoric creatures on a declining, eroding island had evolved into "a menagerie of nightmares".

A hypothetical natural history of dragons is a popular subject of speculative zoology, being explored in works such as Peter Dickinson's The Flight of Dragons (1979), the 2004 mockumentary The Last Dragon and the Dragonology series of books.

Future evolution

The evolution of organisms in the Earth's future is a popular subset of speculative evolution. A relatively common theme in future evolution is civilizational collapse and/or humans becoming extinct due to an anthropogenic extinction event caused by environmental degradation. After such a mass extinction event, the remaining fauna and flora evolve into a variety of new forms. Although the foundations of this subset were laid by Wells's The Time Machine already in 1895, it is generally agreed that it was definitively established by Dixon's After Man in 1981, which explored a fully realized future ecosystem set 50 million years from the present. Dixon's third work on speculative evolution, Man After Man (1990) is also an example of future evolution, this time exploring an imagined future evolutionary path of humanity.

Peter Ward's Future Evolution (2001) makes a scientifically accurate approach to the prediction of patterns of evolution in the future. Ward compares his predictions with those of Dixon and Wells. He tries to understand the mechanism of mass extinctions and the principles of recovery of ecosystems. A key point is that "champion supertaxa" who diversify and speciate at a greater rate, will inherit the world after mass extinctions Ward quotes the paleontologist Simon Conway Morris, who points out that the fantastical or even whimsical creatures devised by Dougal Dixon, echo nature's tendency to converge on the same body plans. While Ward calls Dixon's visions "semi-whimsical" and compares them to Wells's initial visions in The Time Machine, he nonetheless continues the use of analogous evolution, which is a larger trend in speculative zoology.

Future evolution has also been explored on TV, with the mockumentary series The Future is Wild in 2002, for which Dixon was a consultant (and author of the companion book), and the series Primeval (2007–2011), a drama series in which imagined future animals occasionally appeared. Ideas of future evolution are also frequently explored in science fiction novels, such as in Kurt Vonnegut's 1985 science fiction novel Galápagos, which imagines the evolution of a small surviving group of humans into a sea lion-like species. Stephen Baxter's 2002 science fiction novel Evolution follows 565 million years of human evolution, from shrewlike mammals 65 million years in the past to the ultimate fate of humanity (and its descendants, both biological and non-biological) 500 million years in the future. C. M. Kosemen's 2008 All Tomorrows similarly explores the future evolution of humanity. Speculative biology and the future evolution of the human species are significant in bio art.

Seed worlds

Seed worlds, or seeded worlds, are another popular subset of the genre. It involves a terraformed planet or a habitable, yet uninhabited planet being "seeded" by already existing species of animals, plants and fungi, which will speciate in order to fill the different niches by adaptive radiation. The focus can be on one or multiple species, but usually more taxa are present on the project's planet, that won't be covered in as much detail.

One of the most well-known works in this category is Serina: A Natural History of the World of Birds by Dylan Bajda, in which the focal species is the domestic canary, Serinus canaria domestica, who is the progenitor of all other bird species that come later. A minor species that later becomes more relevant is the guppy (Poecilia), whose descendants become terrestrial tripods and compete against the birds after a severe mass extinction which killed 99% of all species on the moon.