Moore's law is an example of futurology; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accurately extrapolating future trends.
Futures studies, also called futurology, is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures"
by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is
likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the
discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of
past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and
trends.
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified
system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex
world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven as
compared to natural science or even social science like sociology and economics. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science and it is sometimes described by scientists as pseudoscience.
Overview
Futurology is an interdisciplinary field
that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional
methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing the sources,
patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop
foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, and futurology. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense by H.G. Wells in 1932.
"Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used
almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the
English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the
future." The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability.
This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern
practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures,
rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and
probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the
research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these
disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often
examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures
along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second,
futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP
categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and
Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions
behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is
not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people
expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while
others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A
foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions
underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by
emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps
needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future.
It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic
exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better
prepare organizations for the future.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle,
or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most
strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time
horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans
and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to
anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. As a
rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of
transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow
scope.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means.
History
Origins
Sir Thomas More, originator of the 'Utopian' ideal.
Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah argue in Macrohistory and Macrohistorians that the search for grand patterns of social change goes all the way back to Ssu-Ma Chien (145-90BC) and his theory of the cycles of virtue, although the work of Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) such as The Muqaddimah would be an example that is perhaps more intelligible to modern sociology. Early western examples include Sir Thomas More’s “Utopia,”
published in 1516, and based upon Plato’s “Republic,” in which a future
society has overcome poverty and misery to create a perfect model for
living. This work was so powerful that utopias have come to represent
positive and fulfilling futures in which everyone's needs are met.
Some intellectual foundations of futures studies appeared in the mid-19th century. Isadore Comte, considered the father of scientific philosophy, was heavily influenced by the work of utopian socialist Henri Saint-Simon, and his discussion of the metapatterns of social change presages futures studies as a scholarly dialogue.
The first works that attempt to make systematic predictions for the future were written in the 18th century. Memoirs of the Twentieth Century written by Samuel Madden
in 1733, takes the form of a series of diplomatic letters written in
1997 and 1998 from British representatives in the foreign cities of Constantinople, Rome, Paris, and Moscow.
However, the technology of the 20th century is identical to that of
Madden's own era - the focus is instead on the political and religious
state of the world in the future. Madden went on to write The Reign of George VI, 1900 to 1925, where (in the context of the boom in canal construction at the time)
he envisioned a large network of waterways that would radically
transform patterns of living - "Villages grew into towns and towns
became cities".
In 1845, Scientific American,
the oldest continuously published magazine in the U.S., began
publishing articles about scientific and technological research, with a
focus upon the future implications of such research. It would be
followed in 1872 by the magazine Popular Science, which was aimed at a more general readership.
The genre of science fiction became established towards the end of the 19th century, with notable writers, including Jules Verne and H. G. Wells, setting their stories in an imagined future world.
Early 20th Century
H. G. Wells first advocated for 'future studies' in a lecture delivered in 1902.
According to W. Warren Wagar, the founder of future studies was H. G. Wells. His Anticipations of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought: An Experiment in Prophecy, was first serially published in The Fortnightly Review in 1901.
Anticipating what the world would be like in the year 2000, the book is
interesting both for its hits (trains and cars resulting in the
dispersion of population from cities to suburbs; moral restrictions
declining as men and women seek greater sexual freedom; the defeat of
German militarism,
the existence of a European Union, and a world order maintained by
"English-speaking peoples" based on the urban core between Chicago and
New York) and its misses (he did not expect successful aircraft
before 1950, and averred that "my imagination refuses to see any sort
of submarine doing anything but suffocate its crew and founder at sea").
Moving from narrow technological predictions, Wells envisioned the eventual collapse of the capitalist world system after a series of destructive total wars. From this havoc would ultimately emerge a world of peace and plenty, controlled by competent technocrats.
The work was a bestseller, and Wells was invited to deliver a lecture at the Royal Institution in 1902, entitled The Discovery of the Future.
The lecture was well-received and was soon republished in book form. He
advocated for the establishment of a new academic study of the future
that would be grounded in scientific methodology rather than just
speculation. He argued that a scientifically ordered vision of the
future "will be just as certain, just as strictly science, and perhaps
just as detailed as the picture that has been built up within the last
hundred years to make the geological past." Although conscious of the
difficulty in arriving at entirely accurate predictions, he thought that
it would still be possible to arrive at a "working knowledge of things
in the future".
In his fictional works, Wells predicted the invention and use of the atomic bomb in The World Set Free (1914). In The Shape of Things to Come (1933) the impending World War and cities destroyed by aerial bombardment was depicted.[19] However, he didn't stop advocating for the establishment of a futures science. In a 1933 BBC
broadcast he called for the establishment of "Departments and
Professors of Foresight", foreshadowing the development of modern
academic futures studies by approximately 40 years.
At the beginning of the 20th century future works were often shaped by political forces and turmoil. The WWI era led to adoption of futures thinking in institutions throughout Europe. The Russian Revolution led to the 1921 establishment of the Soviet Union's Gosplan, or State Planning Committee, which was active until the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Gosplan was responsible for economic planning and created plans in five
year increments to govern the economy. One of the first Soviet
dissidents, Yevgeny Zamyatin, published the first dystopian novel, We,
in 1921. The science fiction and political satire featured a future
police state and was the first work censored by the Soviet censorship
board, leading to Zamyatin's political exile.
In the United States, President Hoover created the Research Committee on Social Trends, which produced a report in 1933. The head of the committee, William F. Ogburn,
analyzed the past to chart trends and project those trends into the
future, with a focus on technology. Similar technique was used during The Great Depression, with the addition of alternative futures and a set of likely outcomes that resulted in the creation of Social Security and the Tennessee Valley development project.
The WWII era emphasized the growing need for foresight. The Nazis
used strategic plans to unify and mobilize their society with a focus
on creating a fascist utopia. This planning and the subsequent war
forced global leaders to create their own strategic plans in response.
The post-war era saw the creation of numerous nation states with complex
political alliances and was further complicated by the introduction of
nuclear power.
Project RAND was created in 1946 as joint project between the United States Army Air Forces and the Douglas Aircraft Company, and later incorporated as the non-profit RAND corporation.
Their objective was the future of weapons, and long-range planning to
meet future threats. Their work has formed the basis of US strategy and
policy in regard to nuclear weapons, the Cold War, and the space race.
Mid-Century Emergence
Futures studies truly emerged as an academic discipline in the mid-1960s. First-generation futurists included Herman Kahn, an American Cold War strategist for the RAND Corporation who wrote On Thermonuclear War (1960), Thinking about the unthinkable (1962) and The Year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years (1967); Bertrand de Jouvenel, a French economist who founded Futuribles International in 1960; and Dennis Gabor, a Hungarian-British scientist who wrote Inventing the Future (1963) and The Mature Society. A View of the Future (1972).
Future studies had a parallel origin with the birth of systems science in academia, and with the idea of national economic and political planning, most notably in France and the Soviet Union.
In the 1950s, the people of France were continuing to reconstruct their
war-torn country. In the process, French scholars, philosophers,
writers, and artists searched for what could constitute a more positive
future for humanity. The Soviet Union similarly participated in postwar rebuilding, but did so in the context of an established national economic planning process,
which also required a long-term, systemic statement of social goals.
Future studies was therefore primarily engaged in national planning, and
the construction of national symbols.
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Rachel Carson, author of The Silent Spring, which helped launch the environmental movement and a new direction for futures research.
By contrast, in the United States, futures studies as a discipline emerged from the successful application of the tools and perspectives of systems analysis, especially with regard to quartermastering the war-effort. The Society for General Systems Research, founded in 1955, sought to understand cybernetics and the practical application of systems sciences, greatly influencing the U.S. foresight community.
These differing origins account for an initial schism between futures
studies in America and “futurology” in Europe: U.S. practitioners
focused on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis,
whereas Europeans preferred to investigate the long-range future of humanity and the Earth, what might constitute that future, what symbols and semantics might express it, and who might articulate these.
By the 1960s, academics, philosophers, writers and artists across
the globe had begun to explore enough future scenarios so as to fashion
a common dialogue. Several of the most notable writers to emerge during
this era include: sociologist Fred L. Polak, whose work Images of the Future (1961) discusses the importance of images to society's creation of the future; Marshall McLuhan, whose The Gutenberg Galaxy (1962) and Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man (1964) put forth his theories on how technologies change our cognitive understanding; and Rachel Carson’s The Silent Spring (1962) which was hugely influential not only to future studies but also the creation of the environmental movement.
Inventors such as Buckminster Fuller also began highlighting the effect technology might have on global trends as time progressed.
By the 1970s there was an obvious shift in the use and
development of futures studies; its focus was no longer exclusive to
governments and militaries. Instead, it embraced a wide array of
technologies, social issues, and concerns. This discussion on the
intersection of population growth, resource availability and use,
economic growth, quality of life, and environmental sustainability –
referred to as the "global problematique" – came to wide public
attention with the publication of Limits to Growth, a study sponsored by the Club of Rome which detailed the results of a computer simulation of the future based on economic and population growth. Public investment in the future was further enhanced by the publication of Alvin Toffler’s bestseller Future Shock
(1970), and its exploration of how great amounts of change can
overwhelm people and create a social paralysis due to “information
overload.”
Further development
International dialogue became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967, with the noted sociologist, Johan Galtung, serving as its first president. In the United States, the publisher Edward Cornish, concerned with these issues, started the World Future Society, an organization focused more on interested laypeople. The Association of Professional Futurists
was founded in 2002 and spans 33 countries with more than 400 members.
Their mission is to promote the profession by “demonstrating the value
of strategic foresight and futures studies.”
The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was
founded in 1969 at the University Of Massachusetts by Christoper Dede
and Billy Rojas.The next graduate program (Master's degree) was also
founded by Christopher Dede in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake,. Oliver Markley of SRI (now SRI International) was hired in 1978 to move the program into a more applied and professional direction. The program moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight.
The program has remained focused on preparing professional futurists
and providing high-quality foresight training for individuals and
organizations in business, government, education, and non-profits. In 1976, the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa was established. The Hawaii program locates futures studies within a pedagogical space defined by neo-Marxism, critical political economic theory, and literary criticism.
In the years following the foundation of these two programs, single
courses in Futures Studies at all levels of education have proliferated,
but complete programs occur only rarely.
In 2010, the Free University of Berlin initiated a master's degree Programme in Futures Studies, which is the first one in Germany. In 2012, the Finland Futures Research Centre started a master's degree Programme in Futures Studies at Turku School of Economics, a business school which is part of the University of Turku in Turku, Finland.
Foresight and futures work cover any domain a company considers
important; therefore, a futurist must be able to cross domains and
industries in their work. There is continued discussion by people in
the profession on how to advance it, with some preferring to keep the
field open to anyone interested in the future and others arguing to make
the credentialing more rigorous. There are approximately 23 graduate and PhD programs in foresight globally, and many other certification courses.
The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a
coherent conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented
curriculum (or curricula) featuring widely accepted and consistent
concepts and theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and
qualitative methods, exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines
for their ethical and appropriate application within society. As an
indication that previously disparate intellectual dialogues have in fact
started converging into a recognizable discipline,
at least six solidly-researched and well-accepted first attempts to
synthesize a coherent framework for the field have appeared: Eleonora Masini's Why Futures Studies?, James Dator's Advancing Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar's Rescuing all of our Futures, Sohail Inayatullah's Questioning the future, Richard A. Slaughter's The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, a collection of essays by senior practitioners, and Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies.
Probability and predictability
Some aspects of the future, such as celestial mechanics,
are highly predictable, and may even be described by relatively simple
mathematical models. At present however, science has yielded only a
special minority of such "easy to predict" physical processes. Theories
such as chaos theory, nonlinear science and standard evolutionary theory have allowed us to understand many complex systems as contingent (sensitively dependent on complex environmental conditions) and stochastic (random within constraints), making the vast majority of future events unpredictable, in any specific case.
Not surprisingly, the tension between predictability and unpredictability
is a source of controversy and conflict among futures studies scholars
and practitioners. Some argue that the future is essentially
unpredictable, and that "the best way to predict the future is to create
it." Others believe, as Flechtheim, that advances in science,
probability, modeling and statistics will allow us to continue to
improve our understanding of probable futures, while this area presently
remains less well developed than methods for exploring possible and
preferable futures.
As an example, consider the process of electing the president of
the United States. At one level we observe that any U.S. citizen over 35
may run for president, so this process may appear too unconstrained for
useful prediction. Yet further investigation demonstrates that only
certain public individuals (current and former presidents and vice
presidents, senators, state governors, popular military commanders,
mayors of very large cities, celebrities, etc.) receive the appropriate
"social credentials" that are historical prerequisites for election.
Thus with a minimum of effort at formulating the problem for statistical
prediction, a much reduced pool of candidates can be described,
improving our probabilistic foresight. Applying further statistical
intelligence to this problem, we can observe that in certain election prediction markets such as the Iowa Electronic Markets,
reliable forecasts have been generated over long spans of time and
conditions, with results superior to individual experts or polls. Such
markets, which may be operated publicly or as an internal market, are just one of several promising frontiers in predictive futures research.
Such improvements in the predictability of individual events do not though, from a complexity theory
viewpoint, address the unpredictability inherent in dealing with entire
systems, which emerge from the interaction between multiple individual
events.
Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as pseudoscience.
Methodologies
In terms of methodology, futures practitioners employ a wide range of
approaches, models and methods, in both theory and practice, many of
which are derived from or informed by other academic or professional
disciplines ,
including social sciences such as economics, psychology, sociology,
religious studies, cultural studies, history, geography, and political
science; physical and life sciences such as physics, chemistry,
astronomy, biology; mathematics, including statistics, game theory and
econometrics; applied disciplines such as engineering, computer
sciences, and business management (particularly strategy).
The largest internationally peer-reviewed collection of futures research methods (1,300 pages) is Futures Research Methodology 3.0.
Each of the 37 methods or groups of methods contains: an executive
overview of each method's history, description of the method,
primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, uses in
combination with other methods, and speculation about future evolution
of the method. Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to
software, and sources for further information.
Given its unique objectives and material, the practice of futures studies only rarely features employment of the scientific method
in the sense of controlled, repeatable and verifiable experiments with
highly standardized methodologies. However, many futurists are informed
by scientific techniques or work primarily within scientific domains.
Borrowing from history, the futurist might project patterns observed in
past civilizations upon present-day society to model what might happen
in the future, or borrowing from technology, the futurist may model
possible social and cultural responses to an emerging technology based
on established principles of the diffusion of innovation. In short, the
futures practitioner enjoys the synergies of an interdisciplinary
laboratory.
As the plural term “futures” suggests, one of the fundamental
assumptions in futures studies is that the future is plural not
singular.
That is, the future consists not of one inevitable future that is to be
“predicted,” but rather of multiple alternative futures of varying
likelihood which may be derived and described, and about which it is
impossible to say with certainty which one will occur. The primary
effort in futures studies, then, is to identify and describe alternative
futures in order to better understand the driving forces of the present
or the structural dynamics of a particular subject or subjects. The
exercise of identifying alternative futures includes collecting
quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability,
and desirability of change. The plural term "futures" in futures studies
denotes both the rich variety of alternative futures, including the
subset of preferable futures (normative futures), that can be studied,
as well as the tenet that the future is many.
At present, the general futures studies model has been summarized
as being concerned with "three Ps and a W", or possible, probable, and
preferable futures, plus wildcards,
which are low probability but high impact events (positive or
negative). Many futurists, however, do not use the wild card approach.
Rather, they use a methodology called Emerging Issues Analysis.
It searches for the drivers of change, issues that are likely to move
from unknown to the known, from low impact to high impact.
In terms of technique, futures practitioners originally concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to predict future trends. Over time, the discipline has come to put more and more focus on the examination of social systems and uncertainties, to the end of articulating scenarios. The practice of scenario development facilitates the examination of worldviews and assumptions through the causal layered analysis method (and others), the creation of preferred visions of the future, and the use of exercises such as backcasting
to connect the present with alternative futures. Apart from
extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques are
used in futures research (see below).
The general practice of futures studies also sometimes includes
the articulation of normative or preferred futures, and a major thread
of practice involves connecting both extrapolated (exploratory) and
normative research to assist individuals and organizations to model
preferred futures amid shifting social changes. Practitioners use
varying proportions of collaboration, creativity and research to derive
and define alternative futures, and to the degree that a “preferred”
future might be sought, especially in an organizational context,
techniques may also be deployed to develop plans or strategies for
directed future shaping or implementation of a preferred future.
While some futurists are not concerned with assigning probability
to future scenarios, other futurists find probabilities useful in
certain situations, such as when probabilities stimulate thinking about
scenarios within organizations .
When dealing with the three Ps and a W model, estimates of probability
are involved with two of the four central concerns (discerning and
classifying both probable and wildcard events), while considering the
range of possible futures, recognizing the plurality of existing
alternative futures, characterizing and attempting to resolve normative
disagreements on the future, and envisioning and creating preferred
futures are other major areas of scholarship. Most estimates of
probability in futures studies are normative and qualitative, though
significant progress on statistical and quantitative methods (technology
and information growth curves, cliometrics, predictive psychology, prediction markets, crowdvoting forecasts, etc.) has been made in recent decades.
Futures techniques
Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as “frameworks for
making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about
the future”. There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures
research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally
promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach.
Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far
been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can
better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement
of foresight as a process together with familiarity with the fundamental
attributes of most commonly used methods.
Scenarios are a central technique in Futures Studies and are often
confused with other techniques. The flowchart to the right provides a
process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive
logics tradition.
Process for classifying a phenomenona as a scenario in the Intuitive Logics tradition.
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including:
- Framework Foresight
- Prediction Markets
- Causal layered analysis (CLA)
- Environmental scanning
- Scenario method
- Education and Learning
- Delphi method, including Real-time Delphi
- Future history
- Monitoring
- Backcasting (eco-history)
- Cross-impact analysis
- Futures workshops
- Failure mode and effects analysis
- Futures wheel
- Technology roadmapping
- Social network analysis
- Systems engineering
- Trend analysis
- Morphological analysis
- Technology forecasting
- Theory U
Shaping alternative futures
Futurists
use scenarios – alternative possible futures – as an important tool. To
some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or
desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at a
variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather
than merely predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by
establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a
process with many stages. One of those stages involves the study of
trends. A trend persists long-term and long-range; it affects many
societal groups, grows slowly and appears to have a profound basis. In
contrast, a fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes, through a utopian
future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day
observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation
of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster.
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track
record at successful prediction. For reasons of convenience, they often
extrapolate present technical and societal trends and assume they will
develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and
social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in
different areas at different rates.
Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by the year 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers.
On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed the future with some
degree of accuracy. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios
that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of merely
"predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential
scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards – low probability, potentially high-impact risks. Every successful and unsuccessful business
engages in futuring to some degree – for example in research and
development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor
behavior and so on.
Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards
In
futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy
and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that
constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.
There is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various
researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented
information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has
been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating
signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign.
A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an
example might also help clarify the confusion. On May 27, 2012,
hundreds of people gathered for a “Take the Flour Back” demonstration at
Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial
of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader
shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When
Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had
already become a trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream
awareness.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events, such as existential risks.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and
introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to
increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in
turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might
constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system.
Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are
incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information
might be inferred.
Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as
synonyms, which they are not.
One of the most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent
history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to
such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the
United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to
deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural
disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of
huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the
supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events can't be
predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and
convincingly explain why they happened.
Near-term predictions
A long-running tradition in various cultures, and especially in the media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These predictions
sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies,
fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major
events might take place over the course of the next year.
Some of these predictions come true as the year unfolds, though
many fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions often state that misinterpretation of the "signs" and portents may explain the failure of the prediction.
Marketers
have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to
benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast
production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn.
Trend analysis and forecasting
Mega-trends
Trends
come in different sizes. A mega-trend extends over many generations,
and in cases of climate, mega-trends can cover periods prior to human
existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The
increase in population from the palaeolithic period to the present provides an example.
Potential trends
Possible
new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions that
have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in the future.
Branching trends
Very
often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk
relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement
toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend.
The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women
in the Western world could form a twig on that branch.
Life-cycle of a trend
When
a potential trend gets enough confirmation in the various media,
surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted
value, behavior or technology,
it becomes accepted as a bona fide trend. Trends can also gain
confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing
from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a
given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action
into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream.
General Hype Cycle used to visualize technological life stages of maturity, adoption, and social application.
Life cycle of technologies
Because
new advances in technology have the potential to reshape our society,
one of the jobs of a futurist is to follow these developments and
consider their implications. However, the latest innovations take time
to make an impact. Every new technology goes through its own life cycle
of maturity, adoption, and social application that must be taken into
consideration before a probable vision of the future can be created.
Gartner created their Hype Cycle
to illustrate the phases a technology moves through as it grows from
research and development to mainstream adoption. The unrealistic
expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality
experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle
phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into
society.
Education
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States
in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries.
Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes
that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and
imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
- conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
- develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures.
- understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
- conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojević to name a few.
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic
tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it.
These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two
classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures
studies into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science
and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on
six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have
incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010; von der Gracht, 2008; Hines, 2012). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.
The largest Futures Studies program in the world is at Tamkang University, Taiwan.
Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with
between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual
basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA
Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program.
Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies.
The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake. It moved to the University of Houston
in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program was
established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an
academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare
professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the
essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a
focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits,
and society in general.
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the
world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation
has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The
Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary
and secondary graduate futures studies programs.
Organizations such as Teach The Future
also aim to promote futurology in the secondary school curriculum in
order to develop structured approaches to thinking about the future in
public school students. The rationale is that a sophisticated approach
to thinking about, anticipating, and planning for the future is a core
skill requirement that every student should have, similar to literacy
and math skills.
Applications of foresight and specific fields
General applicability and use of foresight products
Several
corporations and government agencies utilize foresight products to both
better understand potential risks and prepare for potential
opportunities. Several government agencies publish material for internal
stakeholders as well as make that material available to broader public.
Examples of this include the US Congressional Budget Office long term
budget projections, the National Intelligence Center, and the United Kingdom Government Office for Science.
Much of this material is used by policy makers to inform policy
decisions and government agencies to develop long term plan. Several
corporations, particularly those with long product development
lifecycles, utilize foresight and future studies products and
practitioners in the development of their business strategies. The Shell
Corporation is one such entity.
Foresight professionals and their tools are increasingly being
utilized in both the private and public areas to help leaders deal with
an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
Design
Design
and futures studies have many synergies as interdisciplinary fields with
a natural orientation towards the future. Both incorporate studies of
human behavior, global trends, strategic insights, and anticipatory
solutions.
Designers have adopted futures methodologies including scenarios,
trend forecasting, and futures research. Design thinking and specific
techniques including ethnography, rapid prototyping, and critical design
have been incorporated into in futures as well. In addition to
borrowing techniques from one another, futurists and designers have
joined to form agencies marrying both competencies to positive effect.
The continued interrelation of the two fields is an encouraging trend
that has spawned much interesting work.
The Association for Professional Futurists has also held meetings
discussing the ways in which Design Thinking and Futures Thinking
intersect and benefit one another.
Imperial cycles and world order
Imperial cycles represent an "expanding pulsation" of "mathematically describable" macro-historic trend. The List of largest empires contains imperial record progression in terms of territory or percentage of world population under single imperial rule.
Chinese philosopher K'ang Yu-wei and French demographer Georges Vacher de Lapouge
in the late 19th century were the first to stress that the trend cannot
proceed indefinitely on the definite surface of the globe. The trend is
bound to culminate in a world empire. K'ang Yu-wei estimated that the
matter will be decided in the contest between Washington and Berlin;
Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest between the United States and
Russia and estimated the chance of the United States higher. Both published their futures studies before H. G. Wells introduced the science of future in his Anticipations (1901).
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart, Raoul Naroll, Louis Morano, and Robert Carneiro—researched
the expanding imperial cycles. They reached the same conclusion that a
world empire is not only pre-determined but close at hand and attempted
to estimate the time of its appearance.
Education
As
foresight has expanded to include a broader range of social concerns
all levels and types of education have been addressed, including formal
and informal education. Many countries are beginning to implement
Foresight in their Education policy. A few programs are listed below:
- Finland's FinnSight 2015 - Implementation began in 2006 and though at the time was not referred to as "Foresight" they tend to display the characteristics of a foresight program.
- Singapore's Ministry of Education Master plan for Information Technology in Education - This third Masterplan continues what was built on in the 1st and 2nd plans to transform learning environments to equip students to compete in a knowledge economy.
- The World Future Society, founded in 1966, is the largest and longest-running community of futurists in the world. WFS established and built futurism from the ground up—through publications, global summits, and advisory roles to world leaders in business and government.
By the early 2000s, educators began to independently institute
futures studies (sometimes referred to as futures thinking) lessons in
K-12 classroom environments.
To meet the need, non-profit futures organizations designed curriculum
plans to supply educators with materials on the topic. Many of the
curriculum plans were developed to meet common core standards.
Futures studies education methods for youth typically include
age-appropriate collaborative activities, games, systems thinking and
scenario building exercises.
Science fiction
Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish acknowledge science fiction as a catalyst to future studies, conjuring up visions of tomorrow.
Science fiction's potential to provide an “imaginative social vision”
is its contribution to futures studies and public perspective.
Productive sci-fi presents plausible, normative scenarios.
Jim Dator attributes the foundational concepts of “images of the
future” to Wendell Bell, for clarifying Fred Polak's concept in Images
of the Future, as it applies to futures studies.
Similar to futures studies’ scenarios thinking, empirically supported
visions of the future are a window into what the future could be.
However, unlike in futures studies, most science fiction works present a
single alternative, unless the narrative deals with multiple timelines
or alternative realities, such as in the works of Phillip K. Dick, and a multitude of small and big screen works.
Pamela Sargent states, “Science fiction reflects attitudes typical of
this century.” She gives a brief history of impactful sci-fi
publications, like The Foundation Trilogy, by Isaac Asimov and Starship Troopers, by Robert A. Heinlein. Alternate perspectives validate sci-fi as part of the fuzzy “images of the future.” However, the challenge is the lack of consistent futures research based literature frameworks.
Ian Miles reviews The New Encyclopedia of Science Fiction,” identifying
ways Science Fiction and Futures Studies “cross-fertilize, as well as
the ways in which they differ distinctly.” Science Fiction cannot be
simply considered fictionalized Futures Studies. It may have aims other
than foresight or “prediction, and be no more concerned with shaping the
future than any other genre of literature.”
It is not to be understood as an explicit pillar of futures studies,
due to its inconsistency of integrated futures research. Additionally,
Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, “The
depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science
fiction’s strong points, especially” preferred, normative envisages.
The strengths of the genre as a form of futurist thinking are discussed
by Tom Lombardo, who argues that select science fiction "combines a
highly detailed and concrete level of realism with theoretical
speculation on the future", "addresses all the main dimensions of the
future and synthesizes all these dimensions into integrative visions of
the future", and "reflects contemporary and futurist thinking",
therefore it "can be viewed as the mythology of the future."
It is notable that although there are no hard limits on horizons
in future studies and foresight efforts, typical future horizons
explored are within the realm of the practical and do not span more than
a few decades.
Nevertheless, there are hard science fiction works that can be
applicable as visioning exercises that span longer periods of time when
the topic is of a significant time scale, such as is in the case of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy, which deals with the terraforming of Mars and extends two centuries forward through the early 23rd century. In fact, there is some overlap between science fiction writers and professional futurists such as in the case of David Brin.
Arguably, the work of science fiction authors has seeded many ideas
that have later been developed (be it technological or social in nature)
- from early works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells to the later Arthur C. Clarke and William Gibson.
Beyond literary works, futures studies and futurists have influenced
film and TV works. The 2002 movie adaptation of Phillip K. Dick's novel
Minority report had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision
of the future, including futurists Peter Schwartz. TV shows such as HBO's Westworld, and Channel 4/Netflix' Black Mirror
follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the
scenery and story telling in a way futurists would in experiential
scenarios and works.
Government agencies
Several
governments have formalized strategic foresight agencies to encourage
long range strategic societal planning, with most notable are the
governments of Singapore, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates. Other
governments with strategic foresight agencies include Canada's Policy Horizons Canada and the Malaysia's Malaysian Foresight Institute.
The Singapore government's Centre for Strategic Futures
(CSF) is part of the Strategy Group within the Prime Minister's Office.
Their mission is to position the Singapore government to navigate
emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities.
Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991
with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning
Office in the Ministry of Defence.
In addition to the CSF, the Singapore government has established the
Strategic Futures Network, which brings together deputy secretary-level
officers and foresight units across the government to discuss emerging
trends that may have implications for Singapore.
Since the 1990s, Finland has integrated strategic foresight within the parliament and Prime Minister's Office.
The government is required to present a “Report of the Future” each
parliamentary term for review by the parliamentary Committee for the
Future. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, the Government Foresight
Group coordinates the government's foresight efforts.
Futures research is supported by the Finnish Society for Futures
Studies (established in 1980), the Finland Futures Research Centre
(established in 1992), and the Finland Futures Academy (established in
1998) in coordination with foresight units in various government
agencies.
In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice
President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all
government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning.
Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the Future as an
"integrated strategy to forecast our nation’s future, aiming to
anticipate challenges and seize opportunities". The Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Future(MOCAF) is mandated with crafting the UAE Strategy for the Future and is responsible for the portfolio of the future of UAE.
Risk analysis and management
Foresight is a framework or lens which could be used in risk analysis
and management in a medium- to long-term time range. A typical formal
foresight project would identify key drivers and uncertainties relevant
to the scope of analysis.
It would also analyze how the drivers and uncertainties could interact
to create the most probable scenarios of interest and what risks they
might contain. An additional step would be identifying actions to avoid
or minimize these risks.
One classic example of such work was how foresight work at the
Royal Dutch Shell international oil company led to envision the
turbulent oil prices of the 1970s as a possibility and better embed this
into company planning. Yet the practice at Shell focuses on stretching
the company's thinking rather than in making predictions. Its planning
is meant to link and embed scenarios in “organizational processes such
as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and
leadership development.”
Foresight studies can also consider the possibility of “wild
card” events – or events that many consider would be impossible to
envision – although often such events can be imagined as remote
possibilities as part of foresight work. One of many possible areas of
focus for a foresight lens could also be identifying conditions for
potential scenarios of high-level risks to society.
These risks may arise from the development and adoption of emerging technologies and/or social change. Special interest lies on hypothetical future events that have the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale - global catastrophic risks. Such events may cripple or destroy modern civilization or, in the case of existential risks, even cause human extinction. Potential global catastrophic risks include but are not limited to hostile artificial intelligence, nanotechnology weapons, climate change, nuclear warfare, total war, and pandemics.
The aim of a professional futurist would be to identify conditions that
could lead to these events in order to create “pragmatically feasible
roads to alternative futures.”
Academic Programs and Research centers
- Houston Foresight Program, University of Houston
- Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- The Foresight Programme, London, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
- The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland
- Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
- Institute for Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Institute for the Future, Palo Alto, California
- National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Washington DC
- Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), Berkeley CA (Previously known as the Singularity Institute )
- Tellus Institute, Boston MA
- The Social Capital Foundation, Brussels, Belgium
- World Future Society
- World Futures Studies Federation, world
- Future of Humanity Institute
- The Millennium Project
- MDes in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, OCAD University - Toronto, Canada
Futurists
Futurists are practitioners of the foresight profession, which seeks
to provide organizations and individuals with images of the future to
help them prepare for contingencies and to maximize opportunities. A
foresight project begins with a question that ponders the future of any
given subject area, including technology, medicine, government and
business. Futurists engage in environmental scanning to search for
drivers of change and emerging trends that may have an effect on the
focus topic. The scanning process includes reviewing social media
platforms, researching already prepared reports, engaging in Delphi
studies, reading articles and any other sources of relevant information
and preparing and analyzing data extrapolations. Then, through one of a
number of highly structured methods
futurists organize this information and use it to create multiple
future scenarios for the topic, also known as a domain. The value of
preparing many different versions of the future rather than a singular
prediction is that they provide a client with the ability to prepare
long-range plans that will weather and optimize a variety of contexts.
