Newly industrialized countries shown in blue, developing countries are shown in green, Baltic Tigers in red, developing unrecognised countries in light green (2014).
NICs
are countries whose economies have not yet reached a developed
country's status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their
developing counterparts. Such countries are still considered developing
nations and only differ from other developing nations in the rate at
which an NIC's growth is much higher over a shorter allotted time period
compared to other developing nations. Another characterization of NICs is that of countries undergoing rapid economic growth (usually export-oriented). Incipient or ongoing industrialization
is an important indicator of an NIC. In many NICs, social upheaval can
occur as primarily rural, or agricultural, populations migrate to the
cities, where the growth of manufacturing concerns and factories
can draw many thousands of laborers. NIC's introduce many new
immigrants looking to improve their social and or political status
through newly formed democracies and the increase in wages that most
individuals who partake in such changes would obtain.
Characteristics of newly industrialized countries
Newly
industrialized countries can bring about an increase of stabilization
in a country's social and economic status, allowing the people living in
these nations to begin to experience better living conditions and
better lifestyles. Another characteristic that appears in newly
industrialized countries is the further development in government
structures, such as democracy, the rule of law, and less corruption.
Other such examples of a better lifestyle people living in such
countries can experience are better transportation, electricity, and
better access to water, compared to other developing countries.
The table below presents the list of countries consistently considered NICs by different authors and experts. Turkey and South Africa are classified as developed countries by the CIA. Turkey was a founding member of the OECD in 1961 and Mexico joined in 1994. The G8+5 group is composed of the original G8 members in addition to China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Brazil.
Note: Green-colored cells indicate higher value or best performance in index, while yellow-colored cells indicate the opposite.
For China and India, the immense population of these two countries
(each with over 1.2 billion people as of September 2015) means that per capita income
will remain low even if either economy surpasses that of the United
States in overall GDP. When GDP per capita is calculated according to purchasing power parity (PPP), this takes into account the lower costs of living in each newly industrialized country. GDP per capita typically is an indicator for living standards in a given country as well.
Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa meet annually with
the G8 countries to discuss financial topics and climate change, due to
their economic importance in today's global market and environmental
impact, in a group known as G8+5. This group is expected to expand to G14 by adding Egypt alongside the five aforementioned countries.
Other
Authors set
lists of countries accordingly to different methods of economic
analysis. Sometimes a work ascribes NIC status to a country that other
authors don't consider a NIC. This is the case of countries such as Argentina, Egypt, Sri Lanka and Russia.
Criticism
NICs
usually benefit from comparatively low wage costs, which translates
into lower input prices for suppliers. As a result, it is often easier
for producers in NICs to outperform and outproduce factories in developed countries, where the cost of living is higher, and trade unions and other organizations have more political sway. This comparative advantage is often criticized by advocates of the fair trade movement.
Critics of NICs argue economic freedom is not always associated with political freedom in countries such as China, pointing out that Internet censorship and human rights violations are common. The case is diametrically opposite for India; while being a liberal democracy throughout after its independence,
India has been widely criticized for its inefficient, bureaucratic
governance and slow process of structural reform. Thus, while political
freedom in China remains limited, the average Chinese citizen enjoys a
much higher standard of living than his or her counterpart in India.
Problems
South
Africa faces an influx of immigrants from countries such as Zimbabwe,
although many also come from Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Rwanda, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.
While South Africa is considered wealthy on a wealth-per-capita basis,
economic inequality is persistent and extreme poverty remains high in
the region.
Mexico's economic growth is hampered in some areas by an ongoing drug war.
Other NICs face common problems such as widespread corruption
and/or political instability as well as other circumstances that cause
them to face the "middle income trap".
Sign reads "Political change not climate change" at the Melbourne climate strike in 2019
The complex politics of global warming results from numerous cofactors arising from the global economy's dependence on carbon dioxide (CO 2) emitting fossil fuels; and because greenhouse gases such as CO 2, methane and N 2O (mostly from agriculture) cause global warming — making global warming a non-traditional environmental challenge.
Overview
Implications to all aspects of a nation-state's economy: The vast majority of the world economy relies on energy sources or manufacturing techniques that release greenhouse gases at almost every stage of production, transportation, storage, delivery & disposal while a consensus of the world's scientists attribute global warming to the release of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases.
This intimate linkage between global warming and economic vitality
implicates almost every aspect of a nation-state's economy;
Perceived lack of adequate advanced energy technologies: Fossil fuel
abundance and low prices continue to put pressure on the development of
adequate advanced energy technologies that can realistically replace the role of fossil fuels—as of 2010, over 91% of the world's energy is derived from fossil fuels and non-carbon-neutral technologies.
Without adequate and cost effective post-hydrocarbon energy sources, it
is unlikely the countries of the developed or developing world would
accept policies that would materially affect their economic vitality or
economic development prospects;
Industrialization of the developing world: As developing nationsindustrialize their energy needs increase and since conventional energy sources produce CO 2, the CO 2
emissions of developing countries are beginning to rise at a time when
the scientific community, global governance institutions and advocacy
groups are telling the world that CO 2 emissions should be decreasing. Without access to cost effective and abundant energy sources many developing countries see climate change as a hindrance to their unfettered economic development;
Metric selection (transparency) and perceived responsibility / ability to respond:
Among the countries of the world, disagreements exist over which
greenhouse gas emission metrics should be used like total emissions per
year, per capita emissions per year, CO2 emissions only, deforestation emissions, livestock emissions or even total historical emissions. Historically, the release of CO 2
has not been even among all nation-states, and nation-states have
challenges with determining who should restrict emissions and at what
point of their industrial development they should be subject to such
commitments;
Vulnerable developing countries and developed country legacy emissions:
Some developing nations blame the developed world for having created
the global warming crisis because it was the developed countries that
emitted most of the CO 2
over the twentieth century and vulnerable countries perceive that it
should be the developed countries that should pay to fix the problem;
Consensus-driven global governance models: The global governance
institutions that evolved during the 20th century are all consensus
driven deliberative forums where agreement is difficult to achieve and
even when agreement is achieved it is almost impossible to enforce;
Well organized and funded special-interest lobbying bodies: Special interest lobbying by well organized groups distort and amplify aspects of the challenge (fossil fuels lobby, other special interest lobbying);
Politicization of climate science: Although there is a consensus on the science of global warming and its likely effects—some special interests groups work to suppress the consensus
while others work to amplify the alarm of global warming. All parties
that engage in such acts add to the politicization of the science of
global warming. The result is a clouding of the reality of the global
warming problem.
The focus areas for global warming politics are Adaptation, Mitigation, Finance, Technology and Losses
which are well quantified and studied but the urgency of the global
warming challenge combined with the implication to almost every facet of
a nation-state's economic interests places significant burdens on the
established largely-voluntary global institutions that have developed
over the last century; institutions that have been unable to effectively
reshape themselves and move fast enough to deal with this unique
challenge. Rapidly developing countries which see traditional energy
sources as a means to fuel their development, well funded environmental
lobbying groups and an established fossil fuel energy paradigm boasting a
mature and sophisticated political lobbying infrastructure all combine
to make global warming politics extremely polarized. Distrust between
developed and developing countries at most international conferences
that seek to address the topic add to the challenges. Further adding to
the complexity is the advent of the Internet and the development of
media technologies like blogs and other mechanisms for disseminating
information that enable the exponential growth in production and
dissemination of competing points of view which make it nearly
impossible for the development and dissemination of an objective view
into the enormity of the subject matter and its politics.
Nontraditional environmental challenge
Traditional environmental challenges generally involve behavior by a
small group of industries which create products or services for a
limited set of consumers in a manner that causes some form of damage to
the environment which is clear. As an example, a gold mine might
release a dangerous chemical byproduct into a waterway that kills the
fish there: a clear environmental damage. By contrast, CO 2 is a naturally occurring colorless odorless trace gas that is essential to the biosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO 2)
is produced by all animals and utilized by plants and algae to build
their body structures. Plant structures buried for tens of millions of
years sequester carbon to form coal, oil and gas which modern industrial
societies find essential to economic vitality. Over 80% of the worlds
energy is derived from CO 2 emitting fossil fuels and over 91% of the world's energy is derived from non carbon-neutral energy sources. Scientists attribute the increases of CO 2 in the atmosphere to industrial emissions and scientists agree the increase in CO 2
causes global warming. This essential nature to the world's economies
combined with the complexity of the science and the interests of
countless interested parties make climate change a non-traditional
environmental challenge.
Carbon dioxide and a nation-state's economy
The vast majority of developed countries rely on CO 2 emitting energy sources for large components of their economic activity. Fossil fuel energy generally dominates the following areas of an OECD economy:
Perceived lack of adequate advanced low-carbon technologies
As of 2019 fast growing cities in developing countries lack alternatives to traditional high-carbon cement, and the hydrogen economy and carbon capture and storage are not widespread.
Industrialization of the developing world
The developing world sees economic and industrial development as a
natural right and the evidence shows that the developing world is
industrializing. The developing world is using CO 2
emitting fossil fuels as one of the primary energy sources to fuel
their development. At the same time the scientific consensus on climate
change and the existing global governance bodies like the United
Nations are urging all countries to decrease their CO 2
emissions. Developing countries logically resist this lobbying to
decrease their use of fossil fuels without significant concessions like:
Metric selection and perceived responsibility / ability to respond
There are significant disagreements over which metrics to use when tracking global warming and there are also disagreements over which countries should be subject to emissions restrictions.
While the biosphere is indifferent to whether the greenhouse
gases are produced by one country or by a multitude, the countries of
the world do express an interest in such matters. As such disagreements
arise on whether per capita emissions should be used or whether total
emissions should be used as a metric for each individual country.
Countries also disagree over whether a developing country should share
the same commitment as a developed country that has been emitting CO 2 and other greenhouse gases for close to a century.
Some developing countries expressly state that they require
assistance if they are to develop, which is seen as a right, in a
fashion that does not contribute CO 2
or other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Many times, these needs
materialize as profound differences in global conferences by countries
on the subject and the debates quickly turn to pecuniary matters.
Most developing countries are unwilling to accept limits on their CO 2 and other greenhouse gas emissions while most developed countries place very modest limits on their willingness to assist developing countries.
Vulnerable developing countries and developed country legacy emissions
Some developing countries fall under the category of vulnerable to
climate change. These countries involve small, sometimes isolated,
island nations, low lying nations, nations which rely on drinking water
from shrinking glaciers etc. These vulnerable countries see themselves
as the victims of climate change and some have organized themselves
under groups like the Climate Vulnerable Forum. These countries seek climate finance
from the developed and the industrializing countries to help them adapt
to the impending catastrophes that they see climate change will bring
upon them.
For these countries climate change is seen as an existential threat and
the politics of these countries is to seek reparation and adaptation
monies from the developed world and some see it as their right.
Governance
Global warming politics focus areas
Government policies regarding climate change and many official
reports on the subject usually revolve around one of the following:
Adaptation: social and other changes that must be undertaken to successfully adapt to climate change. Adaptation might encompass, but is not limited to, changes in agriculture and urban planning.
Finance: how countries will finance adaptation to and mitigation
of climate change, whether from public or private sources or from
wealth/technology transfers from developed countries to developing
countries and the management mechanisms for those monies.
Mitigation: steps and actions that the countries of the world can take to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Restoration: steps and actions that the countries of the world can take towards climate restoration to reduce the amount of CO2 causing the of climate change and aim at reducing global temperatures.
Technology: the technologies that are needed lower carbon emissions through increasing energy efficiency or replacement or CO 2
emitting technologies and technologies needed to adapt or mitigate
climate change. Also encompasses ways that developed countries can
support developing countries in adopting new technologies or increasing
efficiency.
Loss and damage: first articulated at the 2012 conference and in part based on the agreement that was signed at the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun.
It introduces the principle that countries vulnerable to the effects of
climate change may be financially compensated in future by countries
that fail to curb their carbon emissions.
Suppression of science: The U.S. government has also responded by silencing climate scientists and muzzling government whistleblowers. Political appointees
at a number of federal agencies prevented scientists from reporting
their findings, changed data modeling to arrive at conclusions they had
set out a prior to prove, and shut out the input of career scientists of the agencies.
Government Targeting of Climate Activists: Domestic
intelligence services of the U.S. have targeted environmental activists
and climate change organizations as "domestic terrorists," investigating
them, questioning them, and placing them on national "watchlists" that
could make it more difficult for them to board airplanes and could
instigate local law enforcement monitoring.
Stonewalling international cooperation: The United States has rejected international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol of 2005 to reduce production of greenhouse gasses, and has said that in 2020 it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, signed by all UN member countries.
In 2014, the UN with Peru and France created the Global Climate Action portal for writing and checking all the climate commitments
Voluntary emissions reductions
The perceived slow process of efforts for countries to agree to a
comprehensive global level binding agreements has led some countries to
seek independent/voluntary steps and focus on alternative high-value
voluntary activities like the creation of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Sweden
which seeks to regulate short-lived pollutants such as methane, black
carbon and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) which together are believed to
account for up to 1/3 of current global warming but whose regulation is
not as fraught with wide economic impacts and opposition. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
(CCAC) was launched on 16 February 2012 to regulate short-lived climate
pollutants (SLCPs) that together contribute up to 1/3 of global
warming. The coalition's creation is seen as a necessary and pragmatic
step given the slow pace of global climate change agreements under the
UNFCCC.
As part of the 2010 Cancún agreements, 76 developed and developing countries have made voluntary pledges to control their emissions of greenhouse gases.
These voluntary steps are seen by some as a new model where countries
pledge to voluntarily take action against global warming outside of
international treaties or obligations to other parties. This voluntary
mechanism, while promising, does not address many of the challenges seen
by the developing world in their efforts to mitigate global warming,
adapt to global warming, and increasingly to deal with losses and
damages that they directly attribute to global warming that they blame
on the developed world's historical emissions.
National Politics
In 2019 climate change became an increasingly important political issue in Germany. On the Australian Sunday morning political discussion show The Bolt Report, Richard Lindzen said in a 2011 interview that governments might use global warming as a rationale for additional taxes.
In 2019 the highest court in the Netherlands has upheld a landmark
ruling that defines protection from the devastation of climate change as
a human right and requires the government to be more ambitious in
cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
City Politics
City politicians advocating measures which have local short-term benefits for their constituents, such as low emission zones, may also have the co-benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Politics of scrapping fossil fuel subsidies
The International Monetary Fund periodically assesses global subsidies for fossil fuels
as part of its work on climate, and it found in a working paper
published in 2019, that the fossil fuel industry received $5.2 trillion
in subsidies in 2017. This amounts to 6.4 percent of the global gross
domestic product.
In line with these findings, the Central Banks of France and the United
Kingdom appealed to stop subsidies to fossil fuels and the European
Investment bank has announced it will stop financing fossil fuels
projects by the end of 2021.
According to the International Institute for Sustainable Development
most attempts to remove fossil fuel subsidies are successful and the
keys points are to: consult, compensate poor people affected by the
change, and implement step-by-step.
Politics of trees
As of 2019 the preservation of forests is emerging as a global political issue.
Special interests and lobbying by non-country interested parties
There are numerous special interest groups, PACs,
organizations, corporations who have public and private positions on
the multifaceted topic of global warming. The following is a partial
list of the types of special interest parties that have demonstrated an
interest in the politics of global warming:
Financial Institutions: Financial institutions generally
support policies against global warming, particularly the implementation
of carbon trading schemes and the creation of market mechanisms that
associate a price with carbon. These new markets would require trading
infrastructures which banking institutions are well positioned to
provide. Financial institutions would also be positioned well to
invest, trade and develop various financial instruments that they could
profit from through speculative positions on carbon prices and the use
of brokerage and other financial functions like insurance and derivative
instruments.
Environmental groups: Environmental advocacy groups generally favor strict restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Environmental groups, as activists, engage in raising awareness.
Fossil fuel companies: Traditional fossil fuel corporations
could benefit or lose from stricter global warming regulations. A
reduction in the use of fossil fuels could negatively impact fossil fuel
corporations. However, the fact that fossil fuel companies are a large source of energy, are also the primary source of CO 2,
and are engaged in energy trading might mean that their participation
in trading schemes and other such mechanisms might give them a unique
advantage and makes it unclear whether traditional fossil fuel companies
would all and always be against stricter global warming policies. As an example, Enron, a traditional gas pipeline company with a large trading desk heavily lobbied the government for the EPA to regulate CO2: they thought that they would dominate the energy industry if they could be at the center of energy trading.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency companies: companies
in wind, solar and energy efficiency generally support stricter global
warming policies. They would expect their share of the energy market to
expand as fossil fuels are made more expensive through trading schemes
or taxes.
Nuclear energy companies: nuclear energy companies could see a
renaissance in a world where fossil fuels are taxed directly or through
a carbon trading mechanism. For this reason, it is likely that nuclear
energy companies would support stricter global warming policies.
Electricity distribution companies: may lose from solar panels but benefit from electric vehicles.
Traditional retailers and marketers: traditional retailers,
marketers, and the general corporations respond by adopting policies
that resonate with their customers. If "being green" helps a general
corporation, then they could undertake modest programs to please and
better align with their customers. However, since the general
corporation does not make a profit from their particular position, it is
unlikely that they would strongly lobby either for or against a
stricter global warming policy position.
The various interested parties sometimes align with one another to
reinforce their message. Sometimes industries will fund specialty
nonprofit organizations to raise awareness and lobby on their behest.
The combinations and tactics that the various interested parties use
are nuanced and sometimes unlimited in the variety of their approaches
to promote their positions onto the general public.
Interaction of climate science and policy
Global warming has attracted the attention of central bank governors, as here with Mark Carney, appointed UN envoy for climate action in 2019.
The politicization of science in the sense of a manipulation of
science for political gains is a part of the political process. It is
part of the controversies about intelligent design (compare the Wedge strategy) or Merchants of Doubt,
scientists that are under suspicion to willingly obscure findings. e.g.
about issues like tobacco smoke, ozone depletion, global warming or
acid rain. However, e.g. in case of the Ozone depletion, global regulation based on the Montreal Protocol has been successful, in a climate of high uncertainty and against strong resistance while in case of Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol failed.
While the IPCC process tries to find and orchestrate the findings
of global (climate) change research to shape a worldwide consensus on
the matter it has been itself been object of a strong politicization. Anthropogenic climate change evolved from a mere science issue to a top global policy topic.
The IPCC process having built a broad science consensus does not hinder governments to follow different, if not opposing goals.
In case of the ozone depletion challenge, there was global regulation
already being installed before a scientific consensus was established.
A linear model of policy-making, based on a more knowledge we have, the better the political response will be does therefore not apply. Knowledge policy,
successfully managing knowledge and uncertainties as base of political
decision making requires a better understanding of the relation between
science, public (lack of) understanding and policy instead. Michael Oppenheimer
confirms limitations of the IPCC consensus approach and asks for
concurring, smaller assessments of special problems instead of large
scale attempts as in the previous IPCC assessment reports. He claims that governments require a broader exploration of uncertainties in the future.
History
Historical annual CO2 emissions for the top six countries and confederations.
CO2 emissions per capita from 1900 to 2017.
Historically, the politics of climate change dates back to several
conferences in the late 1960s and the early 1970s under NATO and
President Richard Nixon. 1979 saw the world's first World Climate Conference. 1985 was the year that the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer was created and two years later in 1987 saw the signing of the Montreal Protocol
under the Vienna convention. This model of using a Framework
conference followed by Protocols under the Framework was seen as a
promising governing structure that could be used as a path towards a
functional governance approach that could be used to tackle broad global
multi-nation/state challenges like global warming.
In 1991 the book The First Global Revolution was published by the Club of Rome
report which sought to connect environment, water availability, food
production, energy production, materials, population growth and other
elements into a blueprint for the twenty-first century: political
thinking was evolving to look at the world in terms of an integrated
global system not just in terms of weather and climate but in terms of
energy needs, food, population, etc.
1992 was the year that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
and the framework entered into force 21 March 1994. The conference
established a yearly meeting, a conference of the parties or COP meeting
to be held to continue work on Protocols which would be enforceable
treaties.
1995 saw the creation of the phrase "preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (also called avoiding dangerous climate change) first appeared in a policy document of a governmental organization, the IPCC's Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995. and in 1996 the European Union adopt a goal of limiting temperature rises to a maximum 2 °C rise in average global temperature.
Since the 1992 UNFCCC
treaty, eighteen COP sessions and eight CMP sessions have been held
under the existing structure. In that time, global CO2 emissions have
risen significantly and developing countries have grown significantly
with China replacing the United States
as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. To some, the UNFCCC has
made significant progress in helping the world become aware of the
perils of global warming and has moved the world forward in the
addressing of the challenge. To others, the UNFCCC process has been a
failure due to its inability to control the rise of greenhouse gas
emissions.
1969, on Initiative of US President Richard Nixon, NATO
tried to establish a third civil column and planned to establish itself
as a hub of research and initiatives in the civil region, especially on
environmental topics. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Nixons NATO delegate for the topic named acid rain and the greenhouse effect
as suitable international challenges to be dealt by NATO. NATO had
suitable expertise in the field, experience with international research
coordination and a direct access to governments. After an enthusiastic start on authority level, the German government reacted skeptically. The initiative was seen as an American attempt
to regain international terrain after the lost Vietnam War. The topics
and the internal coordination and preparation effort however gained
momentum in civil conferences and institutions in Germany and beyond
during the Brandt government.
1987: Montreal Protocol on restricting ozone layer-damaging CFCs demonstrates the possibility of coordinated international action on global environmental issues.
July 2005: 31st G8 summit has climate change on the agenda, but makes relatively little concrete progress
November/December 2005: United Nations Climate Change Conference;
the first meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol, alongside the
11th Conference of the Parties (COP11), to plan further measures for
2008–2012 and beyond.
30 October 2006: The Stern Review
is published. It is the first comprehensive contribution to the global
warming debate by an economist and its conclusions lead to the promise
of urgent action by the UK government to further curb Europe's CO 2
emissions and engage other countries to do so. It discusses the
consequences of climate change, mitigation measures to prevent it,
possible adaptation measures to deal with its consequences, and
prospects for international cooperation.
12 December 2015: World leaders meet in Paris, France for the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC. One hundred eighty seven countries eventually signed on to the Paris Agreement.
As of September 2016, 187 UNFCCC members have signed the treaty, 60 of
which have ratified it. The agreement will only enter into force
provided that 55 countries that produce at least 55% of the world's
greenhouse gas emissions ratify, accept, approve or accede to the
agreement; although the minimum number of ratifications has been
reached, the ratifying states do not produce the requisite percentage of
greenhouse gases for the agreement to enter into force.
South Africa
Mexico
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Turkey
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