Supercritical fluid

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_fluid

A supercritical fluid (SCF) is a substance at a temperature and pressure above its critical point, where distinct liquid and gas phases do not exist, but below the pressure required to compress it into a solid. It can effuse through porous solids like a gas, overcoming the mass transfer limitations that slow liquid transport through such materials. SCFs are superior to gases in their ability to dissolve materials like liquids or solids. Near the critical point, small changes in pressure or temperature result in large changes in density, allowing many properties of a supercritical fluid to be "fine-tuned".

Supercritical fluids occur in the atmospheres of the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, the terrestrial planet Venus, and probably in those of the ice giants Uranus and Neptune. Supercritical water is found on Earth, such as the water issuing from black smokers, a type of hydrothermal vent. SCFs are used as a substitute for organic solvents in a range of industrial and laboratory processes, most commonly carbon dioxide for decaffeination and water for steam boilers for power generation. Some substances are soluble in the supercritical state of a solvent (e.g., carbon dioxide) but insoluble in the gaseous or liquid state—or vice versa. This can be used to extract a substance and transport it elsewhere in solution before depositing it in the desired place by allowing or inducing a phase transition in the solvent.

Properties

Supercritical fluids generally have properties between those of a gas and a liquid. In Table 1, the critical properties are shown for some substances that are commonly used as supercritical fluids.

Table 1. Critical properties of various solvents

Solvent	Molecular mass (g/mol)	Critical temperature (K)	Critical pressure (MPa (atm))	Critical density (g/cm3)
Carbon dioxide (CO2)	44.01	304.1	7.38 (72.8)	0.469
Water (H2O)	18.015	647.096	22.064 (217.755)	0.322
Methane (CH4)	16.04	190.4	4.60 (45.4)	0.162
Ethane (C2H6)	30.07	305.3	4.87 (48.1)	0.203
Propane (C3H8)	44.09	369.8	4.25 (41.9)	0.217
Ethylene (C2H4)	28.05	282.4	5.04 (49.7)	0.215
Propylene (C3H6)	42.08	364.9	4.60 (45.4)	0.232
Methanol (CH3OH)	32.04	512.6	8.09 (79.8)	0.272
Ethanol (C2H5OH)	46.07	513.9	6.14 (60.6)	0.276
Acetone (C3H6O)	58.08	508.1	4.70 (46.4)	0.278
Nitrous oxide (N2O)	44.013	306.57	7.35 (72.5)	0.452

Table 2 shows density, diffusivity and viscosity for typical liquids, gases and supercritical fluids.

Table 2. Comparison of gases, supercritical fluids, and liquids

	Density (kg/m3)	Viscosity (μPa·s)	Diffusivity (mm2/s)
Gases	1	10	1–10
Supercritical fluids	100–1000	50–100	0.01–0.1
Liquids	1000	500–1000	0.001

Also, there is no surface tension in a supercritical fluid, as there is no liquid/gas phase boundary. By changing the pressure and temperature of the fluid, the properties can be "tuned" to be more liquid-like or more gas-like. One of the most important properties is the solubility of material in the fluid. Solubility in a supercritical fluid tends to increase with density of the fluid (at constant temperature). Since density increases with pressure, solubility tends to increase with pressure. The relationship with temperature is a little more complicated. At constant density, solubility will increase with temperature. However, close to the critical point, the density can drop sharply with a slight increase in temperature. Therefore, close to the critical temperature, solubility often drops with increasing temperature, then rises again.

Mixtures

Typically, supercritical fluids are completely miscible with each other, so that a binary mixture forms a single gaseous phase if the critical point of the mixture is exceeded. However, exceptions are known in systems where one component is much more volatile than the other, which in some cases form two immiscible gas phases at high pressure and temperatures above the component critical points. This behavior has been found in systems such as N₂-NH₃, NH₃-CH₄, SO₂-N₂ and n-butane-H₂O.

The critical point of a binary mixture can be estimated as the arithmetic mean of the critical temperatures and pressures of the two components,

T_c(mix) = χ_A × T_c(A) + χ_B × T_c(B)

where χ_i denotes the mole fraction of component i.

For greater accuracy, the critical point can be calculated using equations of state, such as the Peng–Robinson, or group-contribution methods. Other properties, such as density, can also be calculated using equations of state.

Phase diagram

Figure 1. Carbon dioxide pressure-temperature phase diagram

Figure 2. Carbon dioxide density-pressure phase diagram

Figures 1 and 2 show two-dimensional projections of a phase diagram. In the pressure-temperature phase diagram (Fig. 1) the boiling curve separates the gas and liquid region and ends in the critical point, where the liquid and gas phases disappear to become a single supercritical phase.

The appearance of a single phase can also be observed in the density-pressure phase diagram for carbon dioxide (Fig. 2). At well below the critical temperature, e.g., 280 K, as the pressure increases, the gas compresses and eventually (at just over 40 bar) condenses into a much denser liquid, resulting in the discontinuity in the line (vertical dotted line). The system consists of 2 phases in equilibrium, a dense liquid and a low density gas. As the critical temperature is approached (300 K), the density of the gas at equilibrium becomes higher, and that of the liquid lower. At the critical point (304.1 K (31.0 °C; 87.7 °F) and 7.38 MPa (73.8 bar)), there is no difference in density, and the two phases become one fluid phase. Thus, above the critical temperature a gas cannot be liquefied by pressure. At slightly above the critical temperature (310 K), in the vicinity of the critical pressure, the line is almost vertical. A small increase in pressure causes a large increase in the density of the supercritical phase. Many other physical properties also show large gradients with pressure near the critical point, e.g. viscosity, the relative permittivity and the solvent strength, which are all closely related to the density. At higher temperatures, the fluid starts to behave more like an ideal gas, with a more linear density/pressure relationship, as can be seen in Figure 2. For carbon dioxide at 400 K, the density increases almost linearly with pressure.

Many pressurized gases are actually supercritical fluids. For example, nitrogen has a critical point of 126.2 K (−147.0 °C; −232.5 °F) and 3.4 MPa (34 bar). Therefore, nitrogen (or compressed air) in a gas cylinder above this pressure is actually a supercritical fluid. These are more often known as permanent gases. At room temperature, they are well above their critical temperature, and therefore behave as a nearly ideal gas, similar to CO₂ at 400 K above. However, they cannot be liquified by mechanical pressure unless cooled below their critical temperature, requiring gravitational pressure such as within gas giants to produce a liquid or solid at high temperatures. Above the critical temperature, elevated pressures can increase the density enough that the SCF exhibits liquid-like density and behaviour. At very high pressures, an SCF can be compressed into a solid because the melting curve extends to the right of the critical point in the P/T phase diagram. While the pressure required to compress supercritical CO₂ into a solid can be, depending on the temperature, as low as 570 MPa, that required to solidify supercritical water is 14,000 MPa.

The Fisher–Widom line, the Widom line, or the Frenkel line are thermodynamic concepts that allow to distinguish liquid-like and gas-like states within the supercritical fluid.

History

In 1822, Baron Charles Cagniard de la Tour discovered the critical point of a substance in his famous cannon barrel experiments. Listening to discontinuities in the sound of a rolling flint ball in a sealed cannon filled with fluids at various temperatures, he observed the critical temperature. Above this temperature, the densities of the liquid and gas phases become equal and the distinction between them disappears, resulting in a single supercritical fluid phase.

In recent years, a significant effort has been devoted to investigation of various properties of supercritical fluids. Supercritical fluids have found application in a variety of fields, ranging from the extraction of floral fragrance from flowers to applications in food science such as creating decaffeinated coffee, functional food ingredients, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, polymers, powders, bio- and functional materials, nano-systems, natural products, biotechnology, fossil and bio-fuels, microelectronics, energy and environment. Much of the excitement and interest of the past decade is due to the enormous progress made in increasing the power of relevant experimental tools. The development of new experimental methods and improvement of existing ones continues to play an important role in this field, with recent research focusing on dynamic properties of fluids.

Natural occurrence

Hydrothermal circulation

See also: Hydrothermal circulation

A black smoker, a type of hydrothermal vent

Hydrothermal circulation occurs within the Earth's crust wherever fluid becomes heated and begins to convect. These fluids are thought to reach supercritical conditions under a number of different settings, such as in the formation of porphyry copper deposits or high temperature circulation of seawater in the sea floor. At mid-ocean ridges, this circulation is most evident by the appearance of hydrothermal vents known as "black smokers". These are large (metres high) chimneys of sulfide and sulfate minerals which vent fluids up to 400 °C. The fluids appear like great black billowing clouds of smoke due to the precipitation of dissolved metals in the fluid. It is likely that at that depth many of these vent sites reach supercritical conditions, but most cool sufficiently by the time they reach the sea floor to be subcritical. One particular vent site, Turtle Pits, has displayed a brief period of supercriticality at the vent site. A further site, Beebe, in the Cayman Trough, is thought to display sustained supercriticality at the vent orifice.

Planetary atmospheres

The atmosphere of Venus is 96.5% carbon dioxide and 3.5% nitrogen. The surface pressure is 9.3 megapascals (1,350 psi) and the surface temperature is 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F), above the critical points of both major constituents and making the surface atmosphere a supercritical fluid.

The interior atmospheres of the Solar System's four giant planets are composed mainly of hydrogen and helium at temperatures well above their critical points. The gaseous outer atmospheres of the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn transition smoothly into the dense liquid interior, while the nature of the transition zones of the ice giants Neptune and Uranus is unknown. Theoretical models of extrasolar planet Gliese 876 d have posited an ocean of pressurized, supercritical fluid water with a sheet of solid high pressure water ice at the bottom.

Applications

Supercritical fluid extraction

Main article: Supercritical fluid extraction

The advantages of supercritical fluid extraction (compared with liquid extraction) are that it is relatively rapid because of the low viscosities and high diffusivities associated with supercritical fluids. Alternative solvents to supercritical fluids may be poisonous, flammable or an environmental hazard to a much larger extent than water or carbon dioxide are. The extraction can be selective to some extent by controlling the density of the medium, and the extracted material is easily recovered by simply depressurizing, allowing the supercritical fluid to return to gas phase and evaporate leaving little or no solvent residues. Carbon dioxide is the most common supercritical solvent. It is used on a large scale for the decaffeination of green coffee beans, the extraction of hops for beer production, and the production of essential oils and pharmaceutical products from plants. A few laboratory test methods include the use of supercritical fluid extraction as an extraction method instead of using traditional solvents.

Supercritical fluid decomposition

Supercritical water can be used to decompose biomass via supercritical water gasification of biomass. This type of biomass gasification can be used to produce hydrocarbon fuels for use in an efficient combustion device or to produce hydrogen for use in a fuel cell. In the latter case, hydrogen yield can be much higher than the hydrogen content of the biomass due to steam reforming where water is a hydrogen-providing participant in the overall reaction.

Dry-cleaning

Supercritical carbon dioxide (SCD) can be used instead of PERC (perchloroethylene) or other undesirable solvents for dry-cleaning. Supercritical carbon dioxide sometimes intercalates into buttons, and, when the SCD is depressurized, the buttons pop, or break apart. Detergents that are soluble in carbon dioxide improve the solvating power of the solvent. CO₂-based dry cleaning equipment uses liquid CO₂, not supercritical CO₂, to avoid damage to the buttons.

Supercritical fluid chromatography

Supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC) can be used on an analytical scale, where it combines many of the advantages of high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and gas chromatography (GC). It can be used with non-volatile and thermally labile analytes (unlike GC) and can be used with the universal flame ionization detector (unlike HPLC), as well as producing narrower peaks due to rapid diffusion. In practice, the advantages offered by SFC have not been sufficient to displace the widely used HPLC and GC, except in a few cases such as chiral separations and analysis of high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons. For manufacturing, efficient preparative simulated moving bed units are available. The purity of the final products is very high, but the cost makes it suitable only for very high-value materials such as pharmaceuticals.

Chemical reactions

Changing the conditions of the reaction solvent can allow separation of phases for product removal, or single phase for reaction. Rapid diffusion accelerates diffusion controlled reactions. Temperature and pressure can tune the reaction down preferred pathways, e.g., to improve yield of a particular chiral isomer. There are also significant environmental benefits over conventional organic solvents. Industrial syntheses that are performed at supercritical conditions include those of polyethylene from supercritical ethene, isopropyl alcohol from supercritical propene, 2-butanol from supercritical butene, and ammonia from a supercritical mix of nitrogen and hydrogen. Other reactions were, in the past, performed industrially in supercritical conditions, including the synthesis of methanol and thermal (non-catalytic) oil cracking. Because of the development of effective catalysts, the required temperatures of those two processes have been reduced and are no longer supercritical.

Impregnation and dyeing

Impregnation is, in essence, the converse of extraction. A substance is dissolved in the supercritical fluid, the solution flowed past a solid substrate, and is deposited on or dissolves in the substrate. Dyeing, which is readily carried out on polymer fibres such as polyester using disperse (non-ionic) dyes, is a special case of this. Carbon dioxide also dissolves in many polymers, considerably swelling and plasticising them and further accelerating the diffusion process.

Nano and micro particle formation

See also: micronization

The formation of small particles of a substance with a narrow size distribution is an important process in the pharmaceutical and other industries. Supercritical fluids provide a number of ways of achieving this by rapidly exceeding the saturation point of a solute by dilution, depressurization or a combination of these. These processes occur faster in supercritical fluids than in liquids, promoting nucleation or spinodal decomposition over crystal growth and yielding very small and regularly sized particles. Recent supercritical fluids have shown the capability to reduce particles up to a range of 5–2000 nm.

Generation of pharmaceutical cocrystals

Supercritical fluids act as a new medium for the generation of novel crystalline forms of APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) named as pharmaceutical cocrystals. Supercritical fluid technology offers a new platform that allows a single-step generation of particles that are difficult or even impossible to obtain by traditional techniques. The generation of pure and dried new cocrystals (crystalline molecular complexes comprising the API and one or more conformers in the crystal lattice) can be achieved due to unique properties of SCFs by using different supercritical fluid properties: supercritical CO₂ solvent power, anti-solvent effect and its atomization enhancement.

Supercritical drying

See also: Critical point drying

Supercritical drying is a method of removing solvent without surface tension effects. As a liquid dries, the surface tension drags on small structures within a solid, causing distortion and shrinkage. Under supercritical conditions there is no surface tension, and the supercritical fluid can be removed without distortion. Supercritical drying is used in the manufacturing process of aerogels and drying of delicate materials such as archaeological samples and biological samples for electron microscopy.

Supercritical water electrolysis

Electrolysis of water in a supercritical state reduces the overpotentials found in other electrolysers, thereby improving the electrical efficiency of the production of oxygen and hydrogen.

Increased temperature reduces thermodynamic barriers and increases kinetics. No bubbles of oxygen or hydrogen are formed on the electrodes, therefore no insulating layer is formed between catalyst and water, reducing the ohmic losses. The gas-like properties provide rapid mass transfer.

Supercritical water oxidation

Supercritical water oxidation uses supercritical water as a medium in which to oxidize hazardous waste, eliminating production of toxic combustion products that burning can produce.

The waste product to be oxidised is dissolved in the supercritical water along with molecular oxygen (or an oxidising agent that gives up oxygen upon decomposition, e.g. hydrogen peroxide) at which point the oxidation reaction occurs.

Supercritical water hydrolysis

Supercritical hydrolysis is a method of converting all biomass polysaccharides as well the associated lignin into low molecular compounds by contacting with water alone under supercritical conditions. The supercritical water, acts as a solvent, a supplier of bond-breaking thermal energy, a heat transfer agent and as a source of hydrogen atoms. All polysaccharides are converted into simple sugars in near-quantitative yield in a second or less. The aliphatic inter-ring linkages of lignin are also readily cleaved into free radicals that are stabilized by hydrogen originating from the water. The aromatic rings of the lignin are unaffected under short reaction times so that the lignin-derived products are low molecular weight mixed phenols. To take advantage of the very short reaction times needed for cleavage a continuous reaction system must be devised. The amount of water heated to a supercritical state is thereby minimized.

Supercritical water gasification

Supercritical water gasification is a process of exploiting the beneficial effect of supercritical water to convert aqueous biomass streams into clean water and gases like H₂, CH₄, CO₂, CO etc.

Supercritical desalination

The solubility of dissolved ions drops precipitously once a fluid becomes supercritical. This effect can be used to precipitate salts from high salinity desalination streams, with solubility of different salts decreasing rapidly as water approaches supercritical temperatures. Complex cycle design can enable selective precipitation and improved heat recovery. Some very saline water sources like produced water also have high hydrocarbon content, which can be oxidized by supercritical desalination.

Supercritical fluid in power generation

The efficiency of a heat engine is ultimately dependent on the temperature difference between heat source and sink (Carnot cycle). To improve efficiency of power stations the operating temperature must be raised. Using water as the working fluid, this takes it into supercritical conditions. Efficiencies can be raised from about 39% for subcritical operation to about 45% using current technology. Many coal-fired supercritical steam generators are operational all over the world. Supercritical carbon dioxide is also proposed as a working fluid, which would have the advantage of lower critical pressure than water, but issues with corrosion are not yet fully solved. One proposed application is the Allam cycle.

Supercritical water reactors (SCWRs) are proposed advanced nuclear systems that offer similar thermal efficiency gains.

Biodiesel production

Conversion of vegetable oil to biodiesel is via a transesterification reaction, where a triglyceride is converted to the methyl esters (of the fatty acids) plus glycerol. This is usually done using methanol and caustic or acid catalysts, but can be achieved using supercritical methanol without a catalyst. The method of using supercritical methanol for biodiesel production was first studied by Saka and his coworkers. This has the advantage of allowing a greater range and water content of feedstocks (in particular, used cooking oil), the product does not need to be washed to remove catalyst, and is easier to design as a continuous process.

Enhanced oil recovery and carbon capture and storage

Supercritical carbon dioxide is used to enhance oil recovery in mature oil fields. At the same time, there is the possibility of using "clean coal technology" to combine enhanced recovery methods with carbon sequestration. The CO₂ is separated from other flue gases, compressed to the supercritical state, and injected into geological storage, possibly into existing oil fields to improve yields.

At present, only schemes isolating fossil CO₂ from natural gas actually use carbon storage, (e.g., Sleipner gas field), but there are many plans for future CCS schemes involving pre- or post-combustion CO₂. There is also the possibility to reduce the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere by using biomass to generate power and sequestering the CO₂ produced.

Enhanced geothermal system

Main article: Enhanced geothermal system § CO2 EGS

The use of supercritical carbon dioxide, instead of water, has been examined as a geothermal working fluid.

Refrigeration

Supercritical carbon dioxide is also emerging as a useful high-temperature refrigerant, being used in new, CFC/HFC-free domestic heat pumps making use of the transcritical cycle. These systems are undergoing continuous development with supercritical carbon dioxide heat pumps already being successfully marketed in Asia. The EcoCute systems from Japan are some of the first commercially successful high-temperature domestic water heat pumps.

Supercritical fluid deposition

Supercritical fluids can be used to deposit functional nanostructured films and nanometer-size particles of metals onto surfaces. The high diffusivities and concentrations of precursor in the fluid as compared to the vacuum systems used in chemical vapour deposition allow deposition to occur in a surface reaction rate limited regime, providing stable and uniform interfacial growth. This is crucial in developing more powerful electronic components, and metal particles deposited in this way are also powerful catalysts for chemical synthesis and electrochemical reactions. Additionally, due to the high rates of precursor transport in solution, it is possible to coat high surface area particles which under chemical vapour deposition would exhibit depletion near the outlet of the system and also be likely to result in unstable interfacial growth features such as dendrites. The result is very thin and uniform films deposited at rates much faster than atomic layer deposition, the best other tool for particle coating at this size scale.

Antimicrobial properties

CO₂ at high pressures has antimicrobial properties. While its effectiveness has been shown for various applications, the mechanisms of inactivation have not been fully understood although they have been investigated for more than 60 years.

Future of Earth

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth

Conjectured illustration of the scorched Earth after the Sun has entered the red giant phase, about 5–7 billion years from now

The biological and geological future of Earth can be extrapolated based on the estimated effects of several long-term influences. These include the chemistry at Earth's surface, the cooling rate of the planet's interior, gravitational interactions with other objects in the Solar System, and a steady increase in the Sun's luminosity. An uncertain factor is the influence of human technology such as climate engineering, which could cause significant changes to the planet. For example, the current Holocene extinction is being caused by technology, and the effects may last for up to five million years. In turn, technology may result in the extinction of humanity, leaving the planet to gradually return to a slower evolutionary pace resulting solely from long-term natural processes.

Over time intervals of hundreds of millions of years, random celestial events pose a global risk to the biosphere, which can result in mass extinctions. These include impacts by comets or asteroids and the possibility of a near-Earth supernova—a massive stellar explosion within a 100-light-year (31-parsec) radius of the Sun. Other large-scale geological events are more predictable. Milankovitch's theory predicts that the planet will continue to undergo glacial periods at least until the Quaternary glaciation comes to an end. These periods are caused by the variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of Earth's rotation and orbit. As part of the ongoing supercontinent cycle, plate tectonics will probably create a supercontinent in 250–350 million years. Sometime in the next 1.5–4.5 billion years, Earth's axial tilt may begin to undergo chaotic variations, with changes in the axial tilt of up to 90°.

The luminosity of the Sun will steadily increase, causing a rise in the solar radiation reaching Earth and resulting in a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals. This will affect the carbonate–silicate cycle, which will reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. About 600 million years from now, the level of carbon dioxide will fall below the level needed to sustain C₃ carbon fixation photosynthesis used by trees. Some plants use the C₄ carbon fixation method to persist at carbon dioxide concentrations as low as ten parts per million. However, in the long term, plants will likely die off altogether. The extinction of plants would cause the demise of almost all animal life since plants are the base of much of the animal food chain.

In about one billion years, solar luminosity will be 10% higher, causing the atmosphere to become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. As a likely consequence, plate tectonics and the entire carbon cycle will end. Then, in about 2–3 billion years, the planet's magnetic dynamo may cease, causing the magnetosphere to decay, leading to an accelerated loss of volatiles from the outer atmosphere. Four billion years from now, the increase in Earth's surface temperature will cause a runaway greenhouse effect, creating conditions more extreme than present-day Venus and heating Earth's surface enough to melt it. By that point, all life on Earth will be extinct. Finally, the planet will likely be absorbed by the Sun in about 7.5 billion years, after the star has entered the red giant phase and expanded beyond the planet's current orbit.

Human influence

Main articles: Anthropocene, Conservation biology, Climate change, Nuclear warfare, and Human impact on the environment

Horne foundry copper smelter in Rouyn-Noranda, Canada, graphically demonstrating human-generated gaseous emissions

Humans play a key role in the biosphere, with the large human population dominating many of Earth's ecosystems. This has resulted in a widespread, ongoing mass extinction of other species during the present geological epoch, now known as the Holocene extinction. The large-scale loss of species caused by human influence since the 1950s has been called a biotic crisis, with an estimated 10% of the total species lost as of 2007. At current rates, about 30% of species are at risk of extinction in the next hundred years. The Holocene extinction event is the result of habitat destruction, the widespread distribution of invasive species, poaching, and climate change. In the present day, human activity has had a significant impact on the surface of the planet. More than a third of the land surface has been modified by human actions, and humans use about 20% of global primary production. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by close to 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

The consequences of a persistent biotic crisis have been predicted to last for at least five million years. It could result in a decline in biodiversity and homogenization of biotas, accompanied by a proliferation of species that are opportunistic, such as pests and weeds. Novel species may emerge; in particular taxa that prosper in human-dominated ecosystems may rapidly diversify into many new species. Microbes are likely to benefit from the increase in nutrient-enriched environmental niches. No new species of existing large vertebrates are likely to arise and food chains will probably be shortened.

Anti-nuclear weapons protest march in Oxford, 1980

There are multiple scenarios for known risks that can have a global impact on the planet. From the perspective of humanity, these can be subdivided into survivable risks and terminal risks. Risks that humans pose to themselves include climate change, the misuse of nanotechnology, a nuclear holocaust, warfare with a programmed superintelligence, a genetically engineered disease, or a disaster caused by a physics experiment. Similarly, several natural events may pose a doomsday threat, including a highly virulent disease, the impact of an asteroid or comet, runaway greenhouse effect, and resource depletion. There may be the possibility of an infestation by an extraterrestrial lifeform. The actual odds of these scenarios occurring are difficult if not impossible to deduce.

Should the human species become extinct, then the various features assembled by humanity will begin to decay. The largest structures have an estimated decay half-life of about 1,000 years. The last surviving structures would most likely be open-pit mines, large landfills, major highways, wide canal cuts, and earth-fill flank dams. A few massive stone monuments like the pyramids at the Giza Necropolis or the sculptures at Mount Rushmore may still survive in some form after a million years.^[a]

Cataclysmic astronomical events

The Barringer Meteorite Crater in Flagstaff, Arizona, showing evidence of the impact of celestial objects upon Earth

As the Sun orbits the Milky Way, wandering stars such as Gliese 710 may approach close enough to have a disruptive influence on the Solar System. A close stellar encounter could cause a significant reduction in the perihelion distances of comets in the Oort cloud—a hypothetical spherical region of icy bodies orbiting within half a light-year of the Sun. Such an encounter could trigger a 40-fold increase in the number of comets reaching the inner Solar System. Impacts from these comets could trigger a mass extinction of life on Earth. These disruptive encounters are estimated to occur an average of once every 45 million years. There is a 1% chance every billion years that a star will pass within 100 AU of the Sun, potentially disrupting the Solar System. The mean time for the Sun to collide with another star in the solar neighborhood is approximately 30 trillion (3×10¹³) years, which is much longer than the estimated age of the Universe, at approximately 13.8 billion years. This can be taken as an indication of the low likelihood of such an event occurring during the lifetime of the Earth. Based on results from the Gaia telescope's second data release from April 2018, an estimated 694 stars will approach the Solar System to less than 5 parsecs in the next 15 million years. Of these, 26 have a good probability to come within 1.0 parsec (3.3 light-years) and 7 within 0.5 parsecs (1.6 light-years).

The energy released from the impact of an asteroid or comet with a diameter of 5–10 km (3–6 mi) or larger is sufficient to create a global environmental disaster and cause a statistically significant increase in the number of species extinctions. Among the deleterious effects resulting from a major impact event is a cloud of fine dust ejecta blanketing the planet, blocking some direct sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface thus lowering land temperatures by about 15 °C (27 °F) within a week and halting photosynthesis for several months (similar to a nuclear winter). The mean time between major impacts is estimated to be at least 100 million years. During the last 540 million years, simulations demonstrated that such an impact rate is sufficient to cause five or six mass extinctions and 20 to 30 lower severity events. This matches the geologic record of significant extinctions during the Phanerozoic Eon. Such events can be expected to continue.

A supernova is a cataclysmic explosion of a star. Within the Milky Way galaxy, supernova explosions occur on average once every 40 years. During the history of Earth, multiple such events have likely occurred within a distance of 100 light-years; known as a near-Earth supernova. Explosions inside this distance can contaminate the planet with radioisotopes and possibly impact the biosphere. Gamma rays emitted by a supernova react with nitrogen in the atmosphere, producing nitrous oxides. These molecules cause a depletion of the ozone layer that protects the surface from ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun. An increase in UV-B radiation of only 10–30% is sufficient to cause a significant impact on life; particularly to the phytoplankton that form the base of the oceanic food chain. A supernova explosion at a distance of 26 light-years will reduce the ozone column density by half. On average, a supernova explosion occurs within 32 light-years once every few hundred million years, resulting in a depletion of the ozone layer lasting several centuries. Over the next two billion years, it is predicted that there will be about 20 supernova explosions and one gamma ray burst that will have a significant impact on the planet's biosphere.

The incremental effect of gravitational perturbations between the planets causes the inner Solar System as a whole to behave chaotically over long time periods. This does not significantly affect the stability of the Solar System over intervals of a few million years or less, but over billions of years, the orbits of the planets become unpredictable. Computer simulations of the Solar System's evolution over the next five billion years suggest that there is a small (less than 1%) chance that a collision could occur between Earth and either Mercury, Venus, or Mars. During the same interval, the odds that Earth will be scattered out of the Solar System by a passing star are on the order of 1 in 100,000 (0.001%). In such a scenario, the oceans would freeze solid within several million years, leaving only a few pockets of liquid water about 14 km (9 mi) underground. There is a remote chance that Earth will instead be captured by a passing binary star system, allowing the planet's biosphere to remain intact. The odds of this happening are about 1 in 3 million.

Orbit and rotation

The gravitational perturbations of the other planets in the Solar System combine to modify the orbit of Earth and the orientation of its rotation axis. These changes can influence the planetary climate. Despite such interactions, highly accurate simulations show that overall, Earth's orbit is likely to remain dynamically stable for billions of years into the future. In all 1,600 simulations, the planet's semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination remained nearly constant.

Glaciation

An artist's impression of ice age Earth at glacial maximum.

Historically, there have been cyclical ice ages in which glacial sheets periodically covered the higher latitudes of the continents. Ice ages may occur because of changes in ocean circulation and continentality induced by plate tectonics. The Milankovitch theory predicts that glacial periods occur during ice ages because of astronomical factors in combination with climate feedback mechanisms. The primary astronomical drivers are a higher than normal orbital eccentricity, a low axial tilt (or obliquity), and the alignment of the northern hemisphere's summer solstice with the aphelion. Each of these effects occur cyclically. For example, the eccentricity changes over time cycles of about 100,000 and 400,000 years, with the value ranging from less than 0.01 up to 0.05. This is equivalent to a change of the semiminor axis of the planet's orbit from 99.95% of the semimajor axis to 99.88%, respectively.

Earth is passing through an ice age known as the Quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years. However, the increased rate at which humans release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now. On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced by a few centuries' worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

Obliquity

The rotational offset of the tidal bulge exerts a net torque on the Moon, boosting it while slowing the Earth's rotation (not to scale).

The tidal acceleration of the Moon slows the rotation rate of the Earth and increases the Earth-Moon distance. Friction effects—between the core and mantle and between the atmosphere and surface—can dissipate the Earth's rotational energy. These combined effects are expected to increase the length of the day by more than 1.5 hours over the next 250 million years, and to increase the obliquity by about a half degree. The distance to the Moon will increase by about 1.5 Earth radii during the same period.

Based on computer models, the presence of the Moon appears to stabilize the obliquity of the Earth, which may help the planet to avoid dramatic climate changes. This stability is achieved because the Moon increases the precession rate of the Earth's rotation axis, thereby avoiding resonances between the precession of the rotation and precession of the planet's orbital plane (that is, the precession motion of the ecliptic). However, as the semimajor axis of the Moon's orbit continues to increase, this stabilizing effect will diminish. At some point, perturbation effects will probably cause chaotic variations in the obliquity of the Earth, and the axial tilt may change by angles as high as 90° from the plane of the orbit. This is expected to occur between 1.5 and 4.5 billion years from now.

A high obliquity would probably result in dramatic changes in the climate and may destroy the planet's habitability. When the axial tilt of the Earth exceeds 54°, the yearly insolation at the equator is less than that at the poles. The planet could remain at an obliquity of 60° to 90° for periods as long as 10 million years.

Geodynamics

Pangaea was the last supercontinent to form before the present.

Tectonics-based events will continue to occur well into the future and the surface will be steadily reshaped by tectonic uplift, extrusions, and erosion. Mount Vesuvius can be expected to erupt about 40 times over the next 1,000 years. During the same period, about five to seven earthquakes of magnitude 8 or greater should occur along the San Andreas Fault, while about 50 events of magnitude 9 may be expected worldwide. Mauna Loa should experience about 200 eruptions over the next 1,000 years, and the Old Faithful Geyser will likely cease to operate. The Niagara Falls will continue to retreat upstream, reaching Buffalo in about 30,000–50,000 years. Supervolcano events are the most impactful geological hazards, generating over 1,000 km³ of fragmented material and covering thousands of square kilometers with ash deposits. However, they are comparatively rare, occurring on average every 100,000 years.

In 10,000 years, the post-glacial rebound of the Baltic Sea will have reduced the depth by about 90 m (300 ft). The Hudson Bay will decrease in depth by 100 m over the same period. After 100,000 years, the island of Hawaii will have shifted about 9 km (5.6 mi) to the northwest. The planet may be entering another glacial period by this time.

Continental drift

Further information: Continental drift

The theory of plate tectonics demonstrates that the continents of the Earth are moving across the surface at the rate of a few centimeters per year. This is expected to continue, causing the plates to relocate and collide. Continental drift is facilitated by two factors: the energy generated within the planet and the presence of a hydrosphere. With the loss of either of these, continental drift will come to a halt. The production of heat through radiogenic processes is sufficient to maintain mantle convection and plate subduction for at least the next 1.1 billion years.

At present, the continents of North and South America are moving westward from Africa and Europe. Researchers have produced several scenarios about how this will continue in the future. These geodynamic models can be distinguished by the subduction flux, whereby the oceanic crust moves under a continent. In the introversion model, the younger, interior, Atlantic Ocean becomes preferentially subducted and the current migration of North and South America is reversed. In the extroversion model, the older, exterior, Pacific Ocean remains preferentially subducted and North and South America migrate toward eastern Asia.

As the understanding of geodynamics improves, these models will be subject to revision. In 2008, for example, a computer simulation was used to predict that a reorganization of the mantle convection will occur over the next 100 million years, creating a new supercontinent composed of Africa, Eurasia, Australia, Antarctica and South America to form around Antarctica.

Regardless of the outcome of the continental migration, the continued subduction process causes water to be transported to the mantle. After a billion years from the present, a geophysical model gives an estimate that 27% of the current ocean mass will have been subducted. If this process were to continue unmodified into the future, the subduction and release would reach an equilibrium after 65% of the current ocean mass has been subducted.

Introversion

A rough approximation of Pangaea Ultima, one of the four models for a future supercontinent

Christopher Scotese and his colleagues have mapped out the predicted motions several hundred million years into the future as part of the Paleomap Project. In their scenario, 50 million years from now the Mediterranean Sea may vanish, and the collision between Europe and Africa will create a long mountain range extending to the current location of the Persian Gulf. Australia will merge with Indonesia, and Baja California will slide northward along the coast. New subduction zones may appear off the eastern coast of North and South America, and mountain chains will form along those coastlines. The migration of Antarctica to the north will cause all of its ice sheets to melt. This, along with the melting of the Greenland ice sheets, will raise the average ocean level by 90 m (300 ft). The inland flooding of the continents will result in climate changes.

As this scenario continues, by 100 million years from the present, the continental spreading will have reached its maximum extent and the continents will then begin to coalesce. In 250 million years, North America will collide with Africa. South America will wrap around the southern tip of Africa. The result will be the formation of a new supercontinent (sometimes called Pangaea Ultima), with the Pacific Ocean stretching across half the planet. Antarctica will reverse direction and return to the South Pole, building up a new ice cap.

Extroversion

The first scientist to extrapolate the current motions of the continents was Canadian geologist Paul F. Hoffman of Harvard University. In 1992, Hoffman predicted that the continents of North and South America would continue to advance across the Pacific Ocean, pivoting about Siberia until they begin to merge with Asia. He dubbed the resulting supercontinent, Amasia. Later, in the 1990s, Roy Livermore calculated a similar scenario. He predicted that Antarctica would start to migrate northward, and East Africa and Madagascar would move across the Indian Ocean to collide with Asia.

In an extroversion model, the closure of the Pacific Ocean would be complete in about 350 million years. This marks the completion of the current supercontinent cycle, wherein the continents split apart and then rejoin each other about every 400–500 million years. Once the supercontinent is built, plate tectonics may enter a period of inactivity as the rate of subduction drops by an order of magnitude. This period of stability could cause an increase in the mantle temperature at the rate of 30–100 °C (54–180 °F) every 100 million years, which is the minimum lifetime of past supercontinents. As a consequence, volcanic activity may increase.

Supercontinent

The formation of a supercontinent can dramatically affect the environment. The collision of plates will result in mountain building, thereby shifting weather patterns. Sea levels may fall because of increased glaciation. The rate of surface weathering can rise, increasing the rate at which organic material is buried. Supercontinents can cause a drop in global temperatures and an increase in atmospheric oxygen. This, in turn, can affect the climate, further lowering temperatures. All of these changes can result in more rapid biological evolution as new niches emerge.

The formation of a supercontinent insulates the mantle. The flow of heat will be concentrated, resulting in volcanism and the flooding of large areas with basalt. Rifts will form and the supercontinent will split up once more. The planet may then experience a warming period as occurred during the Cretaceous period, which marked the split-up of the previous Pangaea supercontinent.

Solidification of the outer core

Fluid convection in the outer core produces a dynamo effect

The iron-rich core region of the Earth is divided into a 2,440 km (1,520 mi) diameter solid inner core and a 6,960 km (4,320 mi) diameter liquid outer core. The rotation of the Earth creates convective eddies in the outer core region that cause it to function as a dynamo. This generates a magnetosphere about the Earth that deflects particles from the solar wind, which prevents significant erosion of the atmosphere from sputtering. As heat from the core is transferred outward toward the mantle, the net trend is for the inner boundary of the liquid outer core region to freeze, thereby releasing thermal energy and causing the solid inner core to grow. This iron crystallization process has been ongoing for about a billion years. In the modern era, the radius of the inner core is expanding at an average rate of roughly 0.5 mm (0.02 in) per year, at the expense of the outer core. Nearly all of the energy needed to power the dynamo is being supplied by this process of inner core formation.

The inner core is expected to consume most or all of the outer core 3–4 billion years from now, resulting in an almost completely solidified core composed of iron and other heavy elements. The surviving liquid envelope will mainly consist of lighter elements that will undergo less mixing. Alternatively, if at some point plate tectonics cease, the interior will cool less efficiently, which would slow down or even stop the inner core's growth. In either case, this can result in the loss of the magnetic dynamo. Without a functioning dynamo, the magnetic field of the Earth will decay in a geologically short time period of roughly 10,000 years. The loss of the magnetosphere will cause an increase in erosion of light elements, particularly hydrogen, from the Earth's outer atmosphere into space, resulting in less favorable conditions for life.

Solar evolution

See also: Stellar evolution and Formation and evolution of the Solar System

The energy generation of the Sun is based upon thermonuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium. This occurs in the core region of the star using the proton–proton chain reaction process. Because there is no convection in the solar core, the helium concentration builds up in that region without being distributed throughout the star. The temperature at the core of the Sun is too low for nuclear fusion of helium atoms through the triple-alpha process, so these atoms do not contribute to the net energy generation that is needed to maintain hydrostatic equilibrium of the Sun.

At present, nearly half the hydrogen at the core has been consumed, with the remainder of the atoms consisting primarily of helium. As the number of hydrogen atoms per unit mass decreases, so too does their energy output provided through nuclear fusion. This results in a decrease in pressure support, which causes the core to contract until the increased density and temperature bring the core pressure into equilibrium with the layers above. The higher temperature causes the remaining hydrogen to undergo fusion at a more rapid rate, thereby generating the energy needed to maintain the equilibrium.

Evolution of the Sun's luminosity, radius and effective temperature compared to the present Sun. After Ribas (2010).

The result of this process has been a steady increase in the energy output of the Sun. When the Sun first became a main sequence star, it radiated only 70% of the current luminosity. The luminosity has increased in a nearly linear fashion to the present, rising by 1% every 110 million years. Likewise, in three billion years the Sun is expected to be 33% more luminous. The hydrogen fuel at the core will finally be exhausted in five billion years, when the Sun will be 67% more luminous than at present. Thereafter, the Sun will continue to burn hydrogen in a shell surrounding its core until the luminosity reaches 121% above the present value. This marks the end of the Sun's main-sequence lifetime, and thereafter it will pass through the subgiant stage and evolve into a red giant.

By this time, the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies should be underway. Although this could result in the Solar System being ejected from the newly combined galaxy, it is considered unlikely to have any adverse effect on the Sun or its planets.

Climate impact

See also: Faint young Sun paradox and Medea hypothesis

In the far future, most of Earth's land will likely be a barren desert, like the Atacama desert in Chile.

The rate of weathering of silicate minerals will increase as rising temperatures speed chemical processes up. This, in turn, will decrease the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as reactions with silicate minerals convert carbon dioxide gas into solid carbonates. Within the next 600 million years from the present, the concentration of carbon dioxide will fall below the critical threshold needed to sustain C₃ photosynthesis: about 50 parts per million. At this point, trees and forests in their current forms will no longer be able to survive. This decline in plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. Plant groups will likely die one by one well before the 50 parts per million level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C₃ herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests and finally evergreen conifers. However, C₄ carbon fixation can continue at much lower concentrations, down to above 10 parts per million; thus, plants using C₄ photosynthesis may be able to survive for at least 0.8 billion years and possibly as long as 1.2 billion years from now, after which rising temperatures will make the biosphere unsustainable. Researchers at Caltech have suggested that once C₃ plants die off, the lack of biological production of oxygen and nitrogen will cause a reduction in Earth's atmospheric pressure, which will counteract the temperature rise, and allow enough carbon dioxide to persist for photosynthesis to continue. This would allow life to survive up to 2 billion years from now, at which point water would be the limiting factor. Currently, C₄ plants represent about 5% of Earth's plant biomass and 1% of its known plant species. For example, about 50% of all grass species (Poaceae) use the C₄ photosynthetic pathway, as do many species in the herbaceous family Amaranthaceae.

When the carbon dioxide levels fall to the limit where photosynthesis is barely sustainable, the proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is expected to oscillate up and down. This will allow land vegetation to flourish each time the level of carbon dioxide rises due to tectonic activity and respiration from animal life; however, the long-term trend is for the plant life on land to die off altogether as most of the remaining carbon in the atmosphere becomes sequestered in the Earth. Plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse (see further).

The loss of higher plant life will result in the eventual loss of oxygen as well as ozone due to the respiration of animals, chemical reactions in the atmosphere, and volcanic eruptions. Modeling of the decline in oxygenation predicts that it may drop to 1% of the current atmospheric levels by one billion years from now. This decline will result in less attenuation of DNA-damaging UV, as well as the death of animals; the first animals to disappear would be large mammals, followed by small mammals, birds, amphibians and large fish, reptiles and small fish, and finally invertebrates.

Before this happens, it is expected that life would concentrate at refugia of lower temperatures such as high elevations where less land surface area is available, thus restricting population sizes. Smaller animals would survive better than larger ones because of lesser oxygen requirements, while birds would fare better than mammals thanks to their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures. Based on oxygen's half-life in the atmosphere, animal life would last at most 100 million years after the loss of higher plants. Some cyanobacteria and phytoplankton could outlive plants due to their tolerance for carbon dioxide levels as low as 1 ppm, and may survive for around the same time as animals before carbon dioxide becomes too depleted to support any form of photosynthesis.

In their work The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee have argued that some form of animal life may continue even after most of the Earth's plant life has disappeared. Ward and Brownlee use fossil evidence from the Burgess Shale in British Columbia, Canada, to determine the climate of the Cambrian Explosion, and use it to predict the climate of the future when rising global temperatures caused by a warming Sun and declining oxygen levels result in the final extinction of animal life. Initially, they expect that some insects, lizards, birds, and small mammals may persist, along with sea life; however, without oxygen replenishment by plant life, they believe that animals would probably die off from asphyxiation within a few million years. Even if sufficient oxygen were to remain in the atmosphere through the persistence of some form of photosynthesis, the steady rise in global temperature would result in a gradual loss of biodiversity.

As temperatures rise, the last of animal life will be driven toward the poles, possibly underground. They would become primarily active during the polar night, aestivating during the polar day due to the intense heat. Much of the surface would become a barren desert and life would primarily be found in the oceans. However, due to a decrease in the amount of organic matter entering the oceans from land as well as a decrease in dissolved oxygen, sea life would disappear too, following a similar path to that on Earth's surface. This process would start with the loss of freshwater species and conclude with invertebrates, particularly those that do not depend on living plants such as termites or those near hydrothermal vents such as worms of the genus Riftia. As a result of these processes, multicellular life forms may be extinct in about 800 million years, and eukaryotes in 1.3 billion years, leaving only the prokaryotes.

An alternate scenario that may occur is that, according to a 2024 study in The Planetary Science Journal, assuming that weathering is only weakly correlated with rising temperatures, multicellular life may survive much longer, beyond 1 billion years for a while. In this scenario, silicate weathering does not increase fast enough to deplete atmospheric carbon dioxide. Such levels would only fall below the threshold for plants utilizing C₃ photosynthesis leading to their extinction in 800 million years. However, carbon dioxide levels would remain sustainable for C₄ photosynthesis, only declining below present levels in 1.1 billion years. As such, the remaining plant life and subsequently animal life will survive for substantially longer. By 1.6 billion years from now, however, as the Earth's surface temperature rises to about 338 K (65 °C; 149 °F), the maximum tolerance temperature as documented for a symbiont of Dichanthelium lanuginosum, these processes will eventually force weathering to accelerate and will lead to carbon dioxide levels falling below the threshold for C₄ plants. The end result would be carbon dioxide starvation, oxygen depletion, and then extinction of the remaining plant and animal life in 1.86 billion years.

Loss of oceans

The atmosphere of Venus is in a "super-greenhouse" state. Earth in a few billion years could likely resemble present Venus.

One billion years from now, about 27% of the modern ocean will have been subducted into the mantle. If this process were allowed to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium state where 65% of the present day surface reservoir would remain at the surface. Once the solar luminosity is 10% higher than its current value, the average global surface temperature will rise to 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse" leading to a runaway evaporation of the oceans. At this point, models of the Earth's future environment demonstrate that the stratosphere would contain increasing levels of water. These water molecules will be broken down through photodissociation by solar UV, allowing hydrogen to escape the atmosphere. The net result would be a loss of the world's seawater in about 1 to 1.5 billion years from the present, depending on the model.

There will be one of two variations of this future warming feedback: the "moist greenhouse" where water vapor dominates the troposphere while water vapor starts to accumulate in the stratosphere (if the oceans evaporate very quickly), and the "runaway greenhouse" where water vapor becomes a dominant component of the atmosphere (if the oceans evaporate too slowly). In this ocean-free era, there would continue to be surface reservoirs as water is steadily released from the deep crust and mantle, which could contain an amount of water equivalent to several times that present in the Earth's oceans. Some water may be retained at the poles and there may be occasional rainstorms, but for the most part, the planet would be a desert with large dunefields covering its equator, and a few salt flats on what was once the ocean floor, similar to the ones in the Atacama Desert in Chile.

With no water to serve as a lubricant, plate tectonics would likely stop and the most visible signs of geological activity would be shield volcanoes located above mantle hotspots. In these arid conditions the planet may retain some microbial and possibly even multicellular life. Most of these microbes will be halophiles and life could find refuge in the atmosphere as has been proposed to have happened on Venus. However, the increasingly extreme conditions will likely lead to the extinction of the prokaryotes between 1.6 billion years and 2.8 billion years from now, with the last of them living in residual ponds of water at high latitudes and heights or in caverns with trapped ice. However, underground life could last longer.

What proceeds after this depends on the level of tectonic activity. A steady release of carbon dioxide by volcanic eruption could cause the atmosphere to enter a "super-greenhouse" state like that of the planet Venus. But, as stated above, without surface water, plate tectonics would probably come to a halt and most of the carbonates would remain securely buried until the Sun becomes a red giant and its increased luminosity heats the rock to the point of releasing the carbon dioxide. However, as pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, it is highly possible that plate tectonics may stop long before the loss of the oceans, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could happen in just 500 million years. This could potentially turn the Earth back into a water world, and even perhaps drowning all remaining land life.

The loss of the oceans could be delayed until 2 billion years in the future if the atmospheric pressure were to decline. A lower atmospheric pressure would reduce the greenhouse effect, thereby lowering the surface temperature. This could occur if natural processes were to remove the nitrogen from the atmosphere. Studies of organic sediments have shown that at least 100 kilopascals (0.99 atm) of nitrogen has been removed from the atmosphere over the past four billion years, which is enough to effectively double the current atmospheric pressure if it were to be released. This rate of removal would be sufficient to counter the effects of increasing solar luminosity for the next two billion years.

By 2.8 billion years from now, the surface temperature of the Earth will have reached 422 K (149 °C; 300 °F), even at the poles. At this point, any remaining life will be extinguished due to the extreme conditions. What happens beyond this depends on how much water is left on the surface. If all of the water on Earth has evaporated by this point (via the "moist greenhouse" at ~1 Gyr from now), the planet will stay in the same conditions with a steady increase in the surface temperature until the Sun becomes a red giant. If not and there are still pockets of water left, and they evaporate too slowly, then in about 3–4 billion years, once the amount of water vapor in the lower atmosphere rises to 40%, and the luminosity from the Sun reaches 35–40% more than its present-day value, a "runaway greenhouse" effect will ensue, causing the atmosphere to warm and raising the surface temperature to around 1,600 K (1,330 °C; 2,420 °F). This is sufficient to melt the surface of the planet. However, most of the atmosphere is expected to be retained until the Sun has entered the red giant stage.

With the extinction of life, 2.8 billion years from now, it is expected that Earth's biosignatures will disappear, to be replaced by signatures caused by non-biological processes.

Red giant stage

The size of the current Sun (now in the main sequence) compared to its estimated size during its red giant phase

Once the Sun changes from burning hydrogen within its core to burning hydrogen in a shell around its core, the core will start to contract, and the outer envelope will expand. The total luminosity will steadily increase over the following billion years until it reaches 2,730 times its current luminosity at the age of 12.167 billion years. Most of Earth's atmosphere will be lost to space. Its surface will consist of a lava ocean with floating continents of metals and metal oxides and icebergs of refractory materials, with its surface temperature reaching more than 2,400 K (2,130 °C; 3,860 °F). The Sun will experience more rapid mass loss, with about 33% of its total mass shed with the solar wind. The loss of mass will mean that the orbits of the planets will expand. The orbital distance of Earth will increase to at most 150% of its current value (that is, 1.5 AU (220 million km; 140 million mi)).

The most rapid part of the Sun's expansion into a red giant will occur during the final stages, when the Sun will be about 12 billion years old. It is likely to expand to swallow both Mercury and Venus, reaching a maximum radius of 1.2 AU (180 million km; 110 million mi). Earth will interact tidally with the Sun's outer atmosphere, which would decrease Earth's orbital radius. Drag from the chromosphere of the Sun would reduce Earth's orbit. These effects will counterbalance the impact of mass loss by the Sun, and the Sun will likely engulf Earth in about 7.59 billion years from now.

The drag from the solar atmosphere may cause the orbit of the Moon to decay. Once the orbit of the Moon closes to a distance of 18,470 km (11,480 mi), it will cross Earth's Roche limit, meaning that tidal interaction with Earth would break apart the Moon, turning it into a ring system. Most of the orbiting rings will begin to decay, and the debris will impact Earth. Hence, even if the Sun does not swallow the Earth, the planet may be left moonless.

The ablation and vaporization caused by Earth's fall on a decaying trajectory towards the Sun may remove Earth's mantle, leaving just the core, which will finally be destroyed after at most 200 years. Earth's sole legacy will be a very slight increase (0.01%) of the solar metallicity following this event.

Beyond and ultimate fate

The Helix Nebula, a planetary nebula similar to what the Sun will produce in 8 billion years

After fusing helium in its core to carbon, the Sun will begin to collapse again, evolving into a compact white dwarf star after ejecting its outer atmosphere as a planetary nebula. The predicted final mass is 54% of the present value, most likely consisting primarily of carbon and oxygen.

Currently, the Moon is moving away from Earth at a rate of 4 cm (1.6 inches) per year. In 50 billion years, if the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, they will become tidally locked into a larger, stable orbit, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the orbit of the Moon to decay and the Earth's rotation to accelerate. In about 65 billion years, it is estimated that the Moon may collide with the Earth, due to the remaining energy of the Earth–Moon system being sapped by the remnant Sun, causing the Moon to slowly move inwards toward the Earth.

Beyond this point, the ultimate fate of the Earth (if it survives) depends on what happens. On a time scale of 10¹⁵ (1 quadrillion) years the remaining planets in the Solar System will be ejected from the system by close encounters with other stellar remnants, and Earth will continue to orbit through the galaxy for around 10¹⁹ (10 quintillion) years before it is ejected or falls into a supermassive black hole. If Earth is not ejected during a stellar encounter, then its orbit will decay via gravitational radiation until it collides with the Sun in 10²⁰ (100 quintillion) years. If proton decay can occur and Earth is ejected to intergalactic space, then it will last around 10³⁸ (100 undecillion) years before evaporating into radiation.