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Thursday, September 4, 2014

Space colonization

Space colonization

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Many arguments have been made for space colonization.[citation needed] The two most common are survival of human civilization and the biosphere from possible disasters (natural or man-made), and the huge resources in space for expansion of human society.[citation needed]

As of right now the building of space colonies present a number of huge challenges, both technological and economic. Space settlements would have to provide for all the material needs of hundreds or thousands of humans in an environment out in space that is very hostile to human life.[citation needed] They would involve technologies, such as controlled ecological life support systems, that have yet to be developed in any meaningful way. They would also have to deal with the as yet unknown issue of how humans would behave and thrive in such places long-term. Because of the huge cost of sending anything from the surface of the Earth into orbit (roughly $20,000 USD per kilogram) a space colony would be a massively expensive proposition.

No space colonies have built so far, nor are there any timetables for building one by any large-scale organization (either government or private). However, there have been many proposals, speculations, and designs for space settlements that have been made, and there are a considerable number of space colonization advocates and groups. And several famous scientists, such as Freeman Dyson,[1] have come out in favor of space settlement.

Also on the technological front, there is ongoing progress in making access to space cheaper, and in creating automated manufacturing and construction techniques.[citation needed] This could in the future lead to widespread space tourism, which could be a stepping stone to space colonization.[citation needed]

Reasons

Survival of human civilization

The primary argument that calls for space colonization as a first-order priority is as insurance of the survival of human civilization, by developing alternative locations off Earth where humankind could continue in the event of natural and man-made disasters.
Theoretical physicist and cosmologist Stephen Hawking has argued for space colonization as a means of saving humanity, in 2001 and 2006. In 2001 he predicted that the human race would become extinct within the next thousand years, unless colonies could be established in space.[2] The more recent one in 2006 stated that mankind faces two options: Either we colonize space within the next two hundred years and build residential units on other planets or we will face the prospect of long-term extinction.[3]

Louis J. Halle, formerly of the United States Department of State, wrote in Foreign Affairs (Summer 1980) that the colonization of space will protect humanity in the event of global nuclear warfare.[4] The physicist Paul Davies also supports the view that if a planetary catastrophe threatens the survival of the human species on Earth, a self-sufficient colony could "reverse-colonize" Earth and restore human civilization. The author and journalist William E. Burrows and the biochemist Robert Shapiro proposed a private project, the Alliance to Rescue Civilization, with the goal of establishing an off-Earth backup of human civilization.[5]

J. Richard Gott has estimated, based on his Copernican principle, that the human race could survive for another 7.8 million years, but it isn't likely to ever colonize other planets. However, he expressed a hope to be proven wrong, because "colonizing other worlds is our best chance to hedge our bets and improve the survival prospects of our species".[6]

Survival of the biosphere

Many of the same existential risks to humankind would destroy parts or all of Earth's biosphere as well. An example would be a very large asteroid impact. And although many have speculated about life and intelligence existing in other parts of space, Earth is the only place in the universe currently known to harbor either of these (see: Fermi Paradox, and Rare Earth Hypothesis).

But even if these threats are averted, eventually Earth is to become uninhabitable. This is due to the Sun's increasing luminosity over its lifetime: the Sun is estimated to have been 70-75 percent as bright as it is now when it first formed 4.5 billion years ago, and in a billion years it will be 10 percent brighter. It has been suggested that approximately 800 million years from now, that Earth will cease to be able to sustain multi-cellular life.[7] Later on in several billion years, the brightening Sun will cause a runaway greenhouse effect, extinguishing all life on Earth.

Vast resources in space

Resources in space, both in materials and energy, are enormous. The Solar System alone has, according to different estimates, enough material and energy to support numbers of humans, anywhere from several thousand to over a billion times that of the current Earth-based human population.[8][9][10] Outside the Solar System in the Milky Way are anywhere up to several hundred billion other stellar systems. Outside the Milky Way are up to several hundred billion other galaxies in the observable universe.

Expansion with fewer negative consequences

Expansion of humans and technological progress has usually resulted in some form of environmental devastation, and destruction of ecosystems and their accompanying wildlife.

Aside from Earth's, there are no currently known biospheres to destroy in space.

Expansion has also often come at the expense of displacing many indigenous peoples, the resulting treatment of these peoples ranging anywhere from encroachment to full-blown genocide. Since space has no indigenous peoples this need not be a consequence.

Could help Earth

Another argument for space colonization is to mitigate the negative effects of overpopulation. If the resources of space were opened to use and viable life-supporting habitats were built, Earth would no longer define the limitations of growth. Although Earth's resources do not grow, humans more and more learn to exploit them effectively, and sometimes even almost completely. As extraterrestrial resources become available, demand on terrestrial ones would decline.[11]

Other arguments

Additional goals cite the innate human drive to explore and discover, a quality recognized at the core of progress and thriving civilizations.[12]

Nick Bostrom has argued that from a utilitarian perspective, space colonization should be a chief goal as it would enable a very large population to live for a very long period of time (possibly billions of years) which would produce an enormous amount of utility (or happiness). He claims that it is more important to reduce existential risks to increase the probability of eventual colonization than to accelerate technological development so that space colonization could happen sooner.[13] In his paper, he assumes that the created lives will have positive ethical value despite the problem of suffering, or that future technology could solve it.

In 2001, the space news website Space.com asked Freeman Dyson, J. Richard Gott and Sid Goldstein for reasons why some humans should live in space. Their answers were:[1]
Freeman Dyson has suggested that within a few centuries human civilization will have relocated to the Kuiper belt.[14]

Goals

There will be a very high initial investment cost for space colonies and any other permanent space infrastructure due to the high cost of getting into space. However, proponents argue that the long-term vision of developing space infrastructure will provide long-term benefits far in excess of the initial start-up costs. Therefore, such a development program should be viewed more as a long-term investment and not like current social spending programs that incur spending commitments but provide little or no return on that investment.

Because current space launch costs are so high ($4,000 to $40,000 per kilogram), any serious plans for space colonization must include developing low-cost access to space followed by developing in-situ resource utilization. Therefore, the initial investments must be made in the development of low-cost access to space followed by an initial capacity to provide these necessities: materials, energy, propellant, communication, life support, radiation protection, self-replication, and population.

Although some items of the infrastructure requirements above can already be easily produced on Earth and would therefore not be very valuable as trade items (oxygen, water, base metal ores, silicates, etc.), other high value items are more abundant, more easily produced, of higher quality, or can only be produced in space. These would provide (over the long-term) a very high return on the initial investment in space infrastructure.[15]

Some of these high-value trade goods include precious metals,[16][17] gem stones,[18] power,[19] solar cells,[20] ball bearings,[20] semi-conductors,[20] and pharmaceuticals.[20]


Space colonization is seen as a long-term goal of some national space programs. Since the advent of the 21st-century commercialization of space, which opened cooperation between NASA and the private sector, several private companies have announced plans toward the colonization of Mars. Among entrepreneurs leading the call for space colonization are Elon Musk, Dennis Tito and Bas Lansdorp.[21][22][23]

Potential sites for space colonies include the Moon, Mars, asteroids and free-floating space habitats. Ample quantities of all the necessary materials, such as solar energy and water, are available from or on the Moon, Mars, near-Earth asteroids or other planetary bodies.

In 2005, then NASA Administrator Michael Griffin identified space colonization as the ultimate goal of current spaceflight programs, saying:


The main impediments to commercial exploitation of these resources are the very high cost of initial investment,[25] the very long period required for the expected return on those investments (The Eros Project plans a 50 year development.[26]), and the fact that the thing has never been done before — the high-risk nature of the investment.

Major governments and well-funded corporations have announced plans for new categories of activities: space tourism and hotels, prototype space-based solar-power satellites, heavy-lift boosters and asteroid mining—that create needs and capabilities for humans to be in space.[27][28][29]

In particular, progresses with the annihilation of matter could render spaceflight and colonization more efficient and affordable, to a revolutionary degree,[30] and nuclear engineering.[31]

Space colony types

There are two main types of space colonies:
  • Surface-based examples that would exist on or below the surfaces of planets, moons, etc.
  • Space habitats — free-floating stations that would orbit a planet, moon, etc. or in an independent orbit around the sun.
There is considerable debate among space settlement advocates as to which type (and associated locations) represents the better option for expanding humanity into space.

Space habitats


Interior view of an O'Neill cylinder

Locations in space would necessitate a space habitat, also called space colony and orbital colony, or a space station which would be intended as a permanent settlement rather than as a simple waystation or other specialized facility. They would be literal "cities" in space, where people would live and work and raise families. Many designs have been proposed with varying degrees of realism by both science fiction authors and scientists. Such a space habitat could be isolated from the rest of humanity but near enough to Earth for help. This would test if thousands of humans can survive on their own before sending them beyond the reach of help.

O'Neill cylinders space colony (Island Three design from the 1970s)

Method

Building colonies in space would require access to water, food, space, people, construction materials, energy, transportation, communications, life support, simulated gravity, radiation protection and capital investment. It is likely the colonies would be located by proximity to the necessary physical resources. The practice of space architecture seeks to transform spaceflight from a heroic test of human endurance to a normality within the bounds of comfortable experience. As is true of other frontier opening endeavors, the capital investment necessary for space colonization would probably come from the state,[32] an argument made by John Hickman[33] and Neil deGrasse Tyson.[34]

Materials

Colonies on the Moon, Mars, or asteroids could extract local materials. The Moon is deficient in volatiles such as argon, helium and compounds of carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen. The LCROSS impacter was targeted at the Cabeus crater which was chosen as having a high concentration of water for the Moon. A plume of material erupted in which some water was detected. Anthony Colaprete estimated that the Cabeus crater contains material with 1% water or possibly more.[35] Water ice should also be in other permanently shadowed craters near the lunar poles. Although helium is present only in low concentrations on the Moon, where it is deposited into regolith by the solar wind, an estimated million tons of He-3 exists over all.[36] It also has industrially significant oxygen, silicon, and metals such as iron, aluminum, and titanium.

Launching materials from Earth is expensive, so bulk materials for colonies could come from the Moon, a near-Earth object, Phobos, or Deimos. The benefits of using such sources include: a lower gravitational force, there is no atmospheric drag on cargo vessels, and there is no biosphere to damage. Many NEOs contain substantial amounts of metals. Underneath a drier outer crust (much like oil shale), some other NEOs are inactive comets which include billions of tons of water ice and kerogen hydrocarbons, as well as some nitrogen compounds.[37]

Farther out, Jupiter's Trojan asteroids are thought to be high in water ice and other volatiles.[38]
Recycling of some raw materials would almost certainly be necessary.

Energy

Solar energy in orbit is abundant, reliable, and is commonly used to power satellites today. There is no night in free space, and no clouds or atmosphere to block sunlight. Light intensity obeys an inverse-square law. So the solar energy available at distance d from the Sun is E = 1367/d2 W/m2, where d is measured in astronomical units (AU) and 1367 watts/m2 is the energy available at the distance of Earth's orbit from the Sun, 1 AU.[39]

In the weightlessness and vacuum of space, high temperatures for industrial processes can easily be achieved in solar ovens with huge parabolic reflectors made of metallic foil with very lightweight support structures. Flat mirrors to reflect sunlight around radiation shields into living areas (to avoid line-of-sight access for cosmic rays, or to make the Sun's image appear to move across their "sky") or onto crops are even lighter and easier to build.

Large solar power photovoltaic cell arrays or thermal power plants would be needed to meet the electrical power needs of the settlers' use. In developed nations on Earth, electrical consumption can average 1 kilowatt/person (or roughly 10 megawatt-hours per person per year.)[40] These power plants could be at a short distance from the main structures if wires are used to transmit the power, or much farther away with wireless power transmission.

A major export of the initial space settlement designs was anticipated to be large solar power satellites that would use wireless power transmission (phase-locked microwave beams or lasers emitting wavelengths that special solar cells convert with high efficiency) to send power to locations on Earth, or to colonies on the Moon or other locations in space. For locations on Earth, this method of getting power is extremely benign, with zero emissions and far less ground area required per watt than for conventional solar panels. Once these satellites are primarily built from lunar or asteroid-derived materials, the price of SPS electricity could be lower than energy from fossil fuel or nuclear energy; replacing these would have significant benefits such as elimination of greenhouse gases and nuclear waste from electricity generation.

However, the value of SPS power delivered wirelessly to other locations in Space will typically be far higher than to locations on Earth. Otherwise, the means of generating the power would need to be included with these projects and pay the heavy penalty of Earth launch costs. Therefore, other than proposed demonstration projects for power delivered to Earth,[28] the first priority for SPS electricity is likely to be locations in space, such as communications satellites, fuel depots or "orbital tugboat" boosters transferring cargo and passengers between Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and other orbits such as Geosynchronous orbit (GEO), lunar orbit or Highly-Eccentric Earth Orbit (HEEO).[41]:132

The Moon has nights of two Earth weeks in duration. Mars has nights, relatively high gravity, and an atmosphere with dust storms to cover and degrade solar panels. Also, its greater distance from the Sun (1.5 astronomical units, AU) translates into E/(1.52 = 2.25) only ½-⅔ the solar energy of Earth orbit. For these reasons, nuclear power is sometimes proposed for colonies in these locations.[42] Another alternative would be transmitting energy wirelessly to the lunar or Martian colonies from solar power satellites (SPSs) as described above—note again that the difficulties of generating power in these locations make the relative advantages of SPSs much greater there than for power beamed to locations on Earth.

For both solar thermal and nuclear power generation in airless environments, such as the Moon and space, and to a lesser extent the very thin Martian atmosphere, one of the main difficulties is dispersing the inevitable heat generated. This requires fairly large radiator areas.

Transportation


Delta-v's in km/s for various orbital maneuvers[43][44] using conventional rockets. Red arrows show where optional aerobraking can be performed in that particular direction, black numbers give delta-v in km/s that apply in either direction.

Space access

Transportation to orbit is often the limiting factor in space endeavours. To settle space, much cheaper launch vehicles are required, as well as a way to avoid serious damage to the atmosphere from the thousands, perhaps millions, of launches required.[citation needed] One possibility is the air-breathing hypersonic spaceplane under development by NASA and other organizations, both public and private. Other proposed projects include skyhooks, space elevators, mass drivers, launch loops, and StarTrams.

Cislunar and Solar-System travel

Transportation of large quantities of materials from the Moon, Phobos, Deimos, and near-Earth asteroids to orbital settlement construction sites is likely to be necessary.
Transportation using off-Earth resources for propellant in conventional rockets would be expected to massively reduce in-space transportation costs compared to the present day. Propellant launched from the Earth is likely to be prohibitively expensive for space colonization, even with improved space access costs.

Other technologies such as tether propulsion, VASIMR, ion drives, solar thermal rockets, solar sails, magnetic sails, and nuclear thermal propulsion can all potentially help solve the problems of high transport cost once in space.

For lunar materials, one well-studied possibility is to build mass drivers to launch bulk materials to waiting settlements. Alternatively, lunar space elevators might be employed.

Local transport

Lunar rovers and Mars rovers are common features of proposed colonies for those bodies. Space suits would likely be needed for excursions, maintenance, and safety.

Communication

Compared to the other requirements, communication is easy for orbit and the Moon. A great proportion of current terrestrial communications already passes through satellites. Yet, as colonies further from the Earth are considered, communication becomes more of a burden. Transmissions to and from Mars suffer from significant delays due to the speed of light and the greatly varying distance between conjunction and opposition—the lag will range between 7 and 44 minutes—making real-time communication impractical. Other means of communication that do not require live interaction such as e-mail and voice mail systems should pose no problem.

Life support

In space settlements, a life support system must recycle or import all the nutrients without "crashing." The closest terrestrial analogue to space life support is possibly that of a nuclear submarine. Nuclear submarines use mechanical life support systems to support humans for months without surfacing, and this same basic technology could presumably be employed for space use. However, nuclear submarines run "open loop"—extracting oxygen from seawater, and typically dumping carbon dioxide overboard, although they recycle existing oxygen. Recycling of the carbon dioxide has been approached in the literature using the Sabatier process or the Bosch reaction.

Although a fully mechanistic life support system is conceivable, a closed ecological system is generally proposed for life support. The Biosphere 2 project in Arizona has shown that a complex, small, enclosed, man-made biosphere can support eight people for at least a year, although there were many problems. A year or so into the two-year mission oxygen had to be replenished, which strongly suggests that they achieved atmospheric closure.

The relationship between organisms, their habitat and the non-Earth environment can be:
A combination of the above technologies is also possible.

Radiation protection

Cosmic rays and solar flares create a lethal radiation environment in space. In Earth orbit, the Van Allen belts make living above the Earth's atmosphere difficult. To protect life, settlements must be surrounded by sufficient mass to absorb most incoming radiation, unless magnetic or plasma radiation shields were developed.[45]

Passive mass shielding of four metric tons per square meter of surface area will reduce radiation dosage to several mSv or less annually, well below the rate of some populated high natural background areas on Earth.[46] This can be leftover material (slag) from processing lunar soil and asteroids into oxygen, metals, and other useful materials. However, it represents a significant obstacle to maneuvering vessels with such massive bulk (mobile spacecraft being particularly likely to use less massive active shielding).[45] Inertia would necessitate powerful thrusters to start or stop rotation, or electric motors to spin two massive portions of a vessel in opposite senses. Shielding material can be stationary around a rotating interior.

Self-replication

Space manufacturing could enable self-replication. Some think it the ultimate goal because it allows a much more rapid increase in colonies, while eliminating costs to and dependence on Earth. It could be argued that the establishment of such a colony would be Earth's first act of self-replication (see Gaia spore). Intermediate goals include colonies that expect only information from Earth (science, engineering, entertainment) and colonies that just require periodic supply of light weight objects, such as integrated circuits, medicines, genetic material and tools.

Psychological adjustment

The monotony and loneliness that comes from a prolonged space mission can leave astronauts susceptible to cabin fever or having a psychotic break. Moreover, lack of sleep, fatigue, and work overload can affect an astronaut's ability to perform well in an environment such as space where every action is critical.[47]

Population size

In 2002, the anthropologist John H. Moore estimated that a population of 150–180 would allow normal reproduction for 60 to 80 generations — equivalent to 2000 years.

A much smaller initial population of as little as two women should be viable as long as human embryos are available from Earth. Use of a sperm bank from Earth also allows a smaller starting base with negligible inbreeding.

Researchers in conservation biology have tended to adopt the "50/500" rule of thumb initially advanced by Franklin and Soule. This rule says a short-term effective population size (Ne) of 50 is needed to prevent an unacceptable rate of inbreeding, whereas a long‐term Ne of 500 is required to maintain overall genetic variability. The Ne = 50 prescription corresponds to an inbreeding rate of 1% per generation, approximately half the maximum rate tolerated by domestic animal breeders. The Ne = 500 value attempts to balance the rate of gain in genetic variation due to mutation with the rate of loss due to genetic drift.

Location


Artist Les Bossinas' 1989 concept of Mars mission

Location is a frequent point of contention between space colonization advocates. The location of colonization can be on a physical body or free-flying:

Near-Earth space

Earth orbit

Compared to other locations, Earth orbit has substantial advantages and one major, but solvable, problem. Orbits close to Earth can be reached in hours, whereas the Moon is days away and trips to Mars take months. There is ample continuous solar power in high Earth orbits. The level of (pseudo-) gravity can be controlled at any desired level by rotating an orbital colony.

The main disadvantage of orbital colonies is lack of materials. These may be expensively imported from the Earth, or more cheaply from extraterrestrial sources, such as the Moon (which has ample metals, silicon, and oxygen), near-Earth asteroids, comets, or elsewhere. As of 2014, the International Space Station provides a temporary, yet still non-autonomous, human presence in low Earth orbit.

The Moon


Moon colony (1995)

Due to its proximity and familiarity, Earth's Moon is discussed as a target for colonization. It has the benefits of proximity to Earth and lower escape velocity, allowing for easier exchange of goods and services. A drawback of the Moon is its low abundance of volatiles necessary for life such as hydrogen, nitrogen, and carbon. Water-ice deposits that exist in some polar craters could serve as a source for these elements. An alternative solution is to bring hydrogen from near-Earth asteroids and combine it with oxygen extracted from lunar rock.

The Moon's low surface gravity is also a concern, as it is unknown whether 1/6g is enough to maintain human health for long periods.

Lagrange points


A contour plot of the gravitational potential of the Sun and Earth, showing the five Earth–Sun Lagrange points

Another near-Earth possibility are the five Earth-Moon Lagrange points. Although they would generally also take a few days to reach with current technology, many of these points would have near-continuous solar power capability since their distance from Earth would result in only brief and infrequent eclipses of light from the Sun. However, the fact that Earth-Moon Lagrange points L4 and L5 tend to collect dust and debris, while L1-L3 require active station-keeping measures to maintain a stable position, make them somewhat less suitable places for habitation than was originally believed. Additionally, the orbit of L2 - L5 takes them out of the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere for approximately two-thirds of the time, exposing them to the health threat from cosmic rays.

The five Earth–Sun Lagrange points would totally eliminate eclipses, but only L1 and L2 would be reachable in a few days' time. The other three Earth-Sun points would require months to reach.

Near-Earth asteroids

Many small asteroids in orbit around the Sun have the advantage that they pass closer than Earth's moon several times per decade. In between these close approaches to home, the asteroid may travel out to a furthest distance of some 350,000,000 kilometers from the Sun (its aphelion) and 500,000,000 kilometers from Earth.

The inner planets

Mars

The surface of Mars is about the same size as the dry land surface of Earth. The ice in Mars' south polar cap, if spread over the planet, would be a layer 12 meters (39 feet) thick[48] and there is carbon (locked as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere).
Mars may have gone through similar geological and hydrological processes as Earth and therefore might contain valuable mineral ores. Equipment is available to extract in situ resources (e.g., water, air) from the Martian ground and atmosphere. There is interest in colonizing Mars in part because life could have existed on Mars at some point in its history, and may even still exist in some parts of the planet.

However, its atmosphere is very thin (averaging 800 Pa or about 0.8% of Earth sea-level atmospheric pressure); so the pressure vessels necessary to support life are very similar to deep-space structures. The climate of Mars is colder than Earth's. The dust storms block out most of the sun's light for a month or more at a time. Its gravity is only around a third that of Earth's; it is unknown whether this is sufficient to support human beings for extended periods (all long-term human experience to date has been at around Earth gravity, or one g).

The atmosphere is thin enough, when coupled with Mars' lack of magnetic field, that radiation is more intense on the surface, and protection from solar storms would require radiation shielding.

An artist's conception of a terraformed Mars (2009)

Terraforming Mars would make life outside pressure vessels on the surface possible. There is some discussion of it actually being done.
Phobos and Deimos
The moons of Mars may be a target for space colonization. Low delta-v is needed to reach the Earth from Phobos and Deimos, allowing delivery of material to cislunar space, as well as transport around the Martian system. The moons themselves may be suitable for habitation, with methods similar to those for asteroids.

Venus


Artist's impression of a terraformed Venus

While the surface of Venus is far too hot and features atmospheric pressure at least 90 times that at sea level on Earth, its massive atmosphere offers a possible alternate location for colonization. At an altitude of approximately 50 km, the pressure is reduced to a few atmospheres, and the temperature would be between 40–100 °C, depending on the altitude. This part of the atmosphere is probably within dense clouds which contain some sulfuric acid. Even these may have a certain benefit to colonization, as they present a possible source for the extraction of water.

Mercury

There is a suggestion that Mercury could be colonized using the same technology, approach and equipment that is used in colonizing the Moon. Such colonies would almost certainly be restricted to the polar regions due to the extreme daytime temperatures elsewhere on the planet.
Observations of Mercury's polar regions by radar from Earth and the on-going observations of the Messenger Probe have been consistent with water ice and/or other frozen volatiles being present in permanently shadowed areas of craters in Mercury's polar regions.[49] Measurements of Mercury's exosphere, which is practically a vacuum, revealed more ions derived from water than scientists had expected.[50] All of these observations are consistent with water ice and/or other volatiles being available to hypothetical future colonists of Mercury.

The asteroid belt

Colonization of asteroids would require space habitats. The asteroid belt has significant overall material available, the largest object being Ceres, although it is thinly distributed as it covers a vast region of space. Unmanned supply craft should be practical with little technological advance, even crossing 1/2 billion kilometers of cold vacuum. The colonists would have a strong interest in assuring that their asteroid did not hit Earth or any other body of significant mass, but would have extreme difficulty in moving an asteroid of any size. The orbits of the Earth and most asteroids are very distant from each other in terms of delta-v and the asteroidal bodies have enormous momentum. Rockets or mass drivers can perhaps be installed on asteroids to direct their path into a safe course.

Ceres

Ceres is a dwarf planet in the asteroid belt, comprising about one third the mass of the whole belt and being the sixth largest body in the inner Solar System by mass and volume. Ceres has a surface area somewhat larger than Argentina. Being the largest body in the asteroid belt, Ceres could become the main base and transport hub for future asteroid mining infrastructure, allowing mineral resources to be transported further to Mars, the Moon and Earth. See further: Main-Belt Asteroids. It may be possible to paraterraform Ceres, making life easier for the colonists. Given its low gravity and fast rotation, a space elevator would also be practical.

Moons of outer planets

Jovian moons — Europa, Callisto and Ganymede

The Artemis Project designed a plan to colonize Europa, one of Jupiter's moons. Scientists were to inhabit igloos and drill down into the Europan ice crust, exploring any sub-surface ocean. This plan discusses possible use of "air pockets" for human inhabitation. Europa is considered one of the more habitable bodies in the Solar System and so merits investigation as a possible abode for life. Ganymede is the largest moon in the Solar System. It may be attractive as Ganymede is the only moon with a magnetosphere and so is less irradiated at the surface. The presence of magnetosphere, likely indicates a convecting molten core within Ganymede, which may in turn indicate a rich geologic history for the moon.

NASA performed a study called HOPE (Revolutionary Concepts for Human Outer Planet Exploration) regarding the future exploration of the Solar System.[51] The target chosen was Callisto. It could be possible to build a surface base that would produce fuel for further exploration of the Solar System.

The three out of four largest moons of Jupiter (Europa, Ganymede and Callisto) have an abundance of volatiles making future colonization possible.

Moons of Saturn — Titan, Enceladus, and others

Titan is suggested as a target for colonization,[52] because it is the only moon in the Solar System to have a dense atmosphere and is rich in carbon-bearing compounds.[53] Robert Zubrin identified Titan as possessing an abundance of all the elements necessary to support life, making Titan perhaps the most advantageous locale in the outer Solar System for colonization, and saying "In certain ways, Titan is the most hospitable extraterrestrial world within our solar system for human colonization". Enceladus is a small, icy moon orbiting close to Saturn, notable for its extremely bright surface and the geyser-like plumes of ice and water vapor that erupt from its southern polar region. If Enceladus has liquid water, it joins Mars and Jupiter's moon Europa as one of the prime places in the Solar System to look for extraterrestrial life and possible future settlements.

Other large satellites: Rhea, Iapetus, Dione, Tethys, and Mimas, all have large quantities of volatiles, which can be used to support settlement.

Moons of Uranus and Neptune

The five large moons of Uranus (Miranda, Ariel, Umbriel, Titania and Oberon) and Triton—Neptune's largest moon—, although very cold, have large amounts of frozen water and other volatiles and could potentially be settled, only they would require a lot of nuclear power to sustain the habitats. Triton's thin atmosphere also contains some nitrogen and even some frozen nitrogen on the surface (the surface temperature is 38 K or about -391°Fahrenheit). Pluto is estimated to have a very similar structure to Triton.

The Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud

Pluto is estimated to have a very similar structure to Triton.
The Kuiper Belt is estimated to have 70,000 bodies of 100 km or larger.
The Oort Cloud is estimated to have up to a trillion comets.

Other Solar System locations

Statites

Statites or "static satellites" employ solar sails to position themselves in orbits that gravity alone could not accomplish. Such a solar sail colony would be free to ride solar radiation pressure and travel off the ecliptic plane. Navigational computers with an advanced understanding of flocking behavior could organize several statite colonies into the beginnings of the true "swarm" concept of a Dyson sphere.

Surfaces of gas giants

It may be possible to colonize the three farthest gas giants with floating cities in their atmospheres.
By heating hydrogen balloons, large masses can be suspended underneath at roughly Earth gravity. A human colony on Jupiter would be less practical due to the planet's high gravity, escape velocity and radiation. Such colonies could export Helium-3 for use in fusion reactors if they ever become practical. Escape from the gas giants (especially Jupiter) seems well beyond current or near-term foreseeable chemical-rocket technology however, due to the combination of large velocity and high acceleration needed even to achieve low orbit.

Outside the Solar System


A star forming region in the Large Magellanic Cloud

Looking beyond the Solar System, there are up to several hundred billion potential stars with possible colonization targets. The main difficulty is the vast distances to other stars: roughly a hundred thousand times further away than the planets in the Solar System. This means that some combination of very high speed (some percentage of the speed of light), or travel times lasting centuries or millennia, would be required. These speeds are far beyond what current spacecraft propulsion systems can provide.

Many scientific papers have been published about interstellar travel. Given sufficient travel time and engineering work, both unmanned and generational voyages seem possible, though representing a very considerable technological and economic challenge unlikely to be met for some time, particularly for manned probes.

Space colonization technology could in principle allow human expansion at high, but sub-relativistic speeds, substantially less than the speed of light, c.  An interstellar colony ship would be similar to a space habitat, with the addition of major propulsion capabilities and independent energy generation.

Hypothetical starship concepts proposed both by scientists and in hard science fiction include:
  • A generation ship would travel much slower than light, with consequent interstellar trip times of many decades or centuries. The crew would go through generations before the journey is complete, so that none of the initial crew would be expected to survive to arrive at the destination, assuming current human lifespans.
  • A sleeper ship, in which most or all of the crew spend the journey in some form of hibernation or suspended animation, allowing some or all who undertake the journey to survive to the end.
  • An Embryo-carrying Interstellar Starship (EIS), much smaller than a generation ship or sleeper ship, transporting human embryos or DNA in a frozen or dormant state to the destination. (Obvious biological and psychological problems in birthing, raising, and educating such voyagers, neglected here, may not be fundamental.)
  • A nuclear fusion or fission powered ship (e.g., ion drive) of some kind, achieving velocities of up to perhaps 10% c  permitting one-way trips to nearby stars with durations comparable to a human lifetime.
  • A Project Orion-ship, a nuclear-powered concept proposed by Freeman Dyson which would use nuclear explosions to propel a starship. A special case of the preceding nuclear rocket concepts, with similar potential velocity capability, but possibly easier technology.
  • Laser propulsion concepts, using some form of beaming of power from the Solar System might allow a light-sail or other ship to reach high speeds, comparable to those theoretically attainable by the fusion-powered electric rocket, above. These methods would need some means, such as supplementary nuclear propulsion, to stop at the destination, but a hybrid (light-sail for acceleration, fusion-electric for deceleration) system might be possible.
The above concepts all appear limited to high, but still sub-relativistic speeds, due to fundamental energy and reaction mass considerations, and all would entail trip times which might be enabled by space colonization technology, permitting self-contained habitats with lifetimes of decades to centuries. Yet human interstellar expansion at average speeds of even 0.1% of c  would permit settlement of the entire Galaxy in less than one half of a galactic rotation period of ~250,000,000 years, which is comparable to the timescale of other galactic processes. Thus, even if interstellar travel at near relativistic speeds is never feasible (which cannot be clearly determined at this time), the development of space colonization could allow human expansion beyond the Solar System without requiring technological advances that cannot yet be reasonably foreseen. This could greatly improve the chances for the survival of intelligent life over cosmic timescales, given the many natural and human-related hazards that have been widely noted.

The star Tau Ceti, about twelve light years away, has an abundance of cometary and asteroidal material in orbit around it. These materials could be used for the construction of space habitats for human settlement.

If humanity does gain access to a large amount of energy, on the order of the mass-energy of entire planets, it may eventually become feasible to construct Alcubierre drives. These are one of the few methods of superluminal travel which may be possible under current physics.

Intergalactic travel

Looking beyond the Milky Way, there are about 100 billion other galaxies in the observable universe. The distances between galaxies are on the order of a million times further than those between the stars. Because of the speed of light limit on how fast any material objects can travel in space, intergalactic travel would either have to involve voyages lasting millions of years, or a possible faster than light propulsion method based on speculative physics, such as the Alcubierre drive. There are, however, no scientific reasons for stating that intergalactic travel is impossible in principle.

Funding

Space colonization can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[54][full citation needed] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2010s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$56.5 million per launch of up to 13,150 kg (28,990 lb) payload[55] to low Earth orbit, SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the "cheapest in the industry".[56] Advancements currently being developed as part of the SpaceX reusable launch system development program to enable reusable Falcon 9s "could drop the price by an order of magnitude, sparking more space-based enterprise, which in turn would drop the cost of access to space still further through economies of scale."[56] If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to "have a major impact on the cost of access to space", and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[57]

The President's Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization, for example by offering the prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[58]

Terrestrial analogues to space colonies

The most famous attempt to build an analogue to a self-sufficient colony is Biosphere 2, which attempted to duplicate Earth's biosphere. BIOS-3 is another closed ecosystem, completed in 1972 in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.

Many space agencies build testbeds for advanced life support systems, but these are designed for long duration human spaceflight, not permanent colonization.

Remote research stations in inhospitable climates, such as the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station or Devon Island Mars Arctic Research Station, can also provide some practice for off-world outpost construction and operation. The Mars Desert Research Station has a habitat for similar reasons, but the surrounding climate is not strictly inhospitable.

Nuclear submarines provide an example of conditions encountered in artificial space environment. Crews of these vessels often spend long periods (6 months or more) submerged during their deployments. However, the submarine environment provides a somewhat open life support system since the vessel can replenish supplies of fresh water and oxygen from seawater.

Other examples of small groups in isolated living conditions are record long-distance flights, long-distance (single-handed) sails, oil platforms, prisons, bunkers, small islands and underground bases.

The study of terrestrial analogues is also a central focus in space architecture.

History

The first known work on space colonization was The Brick Moon, a work of fiction published in 1869 by Edward Everett Hale, about an inhabited artificial satellite.[59]

The Russian schoolmaster and physicist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky foresaw elements of the space community in his book Beyond Planet Earth written about 1900. Tsiolkovsky had his space travelers building greenhouses and raising crops in space.[60] Tsiolkovsky believed that going into space would help perfect human beings, leading to immortality and peace.[61]

Others have also written about space colonies as Lasswitz in 1897 and Bernal, Oberth, Von Pirquet and Noordung in the 1920s. Wernher von Braun contributed his ideas in a 1952 Colliers article. In the 1950s and 1960s, Dandridge M. Cole[62] published his ideas.

Another seminal book on the subject was the book The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space by Gerard K. O'Neill[63] in 1977 which was followed the same year by Colonies in Space by T. A. Heppenheimer.[64]

M. Dyson wrote Home on the Moon; Living on a Space Frontier in 2003;[65] Peter Eckart wrote Lunar Base Handbook in 2006[66] and then Harrison Schmitt's Return to the Moon written in 2007.[67]

As of 2013, Bigelow Aerospace is the only private commercial spaceflight company that has launched two experimental space station modules, Genesis I (2006) and Genesis II (2007),[68] into Earth-orbit, and is planning to launch their BA 330 commercial production module into space by 2014 or 2015.[citation needed]

Objections

A corollary to the Fermi paradox—"nobody else is doing it"—is the argument that because no evidence of alien colonization technology exists, it is statistically unlikely to even be possible using that same level of technology ourselves.

Colonizing space would require massive amounts of financial, physical and human capital devoted to research, development, production, and deployment. Earth's natural resources do not increase to a noteworthy extent (which is in keeping with the "only one Earth" position of environmentalists). Thus, considerable efforts in colonizing places outside Earth would appear as a hazardous waste of the Earth's limited resources for an aim without a clear end.

The fundamental problem of public things, needed for survival, such as space programs, is the free rider problem. Convincing the public to fund such programs would require additional self-interest arguments: If the objective of space colonization is to provide a "backup" in case everyone on Earth is killed, then why should someone on Earth pay for something that is only useful after they are dead? This assumes that space colonization is not widely acknowledged as a sufficiently valuable social goal.

Although seen as a relief to the problem of overpopulation, others have argued that space colonization is an impractical solution; in 1999, science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke said that "the population battle must be fought or won here on Earth".[69]

Other objections include concern about creating a culture in which humans are no longer seen as human, but rather as material assets. The issues of human dignity, morality, philosophy, culture, bioethics, and the threat of megalomaniac leaders in these new "societies" would all have to be addressed in order for space colonization to meet the psychological and social needs of people living in isolated colonies.[70]

As an alternative or addendum for the future of the human race, many science fiction writers have focused on the realm of the 'inner-space', that is the computer-aided exploration of the human mind and human consciousness—possibly en route developmentally to a Matrioshka Brain.

Robotic exploration is proposed as an alternative to gain many of the same scientific advantages without the limited mission duration and high cost of life support and return transportation involved in manned missions.

It could seem that nationalism might unfold ever bigger dangers, once one carries it up and out into space. The exploration of space stronger and stronger blocks up the practical possibility of a war, as it decisively strengthens the factor of deterrence.[71]

Another objection is the potential to cause interplanetary contamination on planets that may harbor hypothetical extraterrestrial life.

Involved organizations

Organizations that contribute to space colonization include:

In fiction

Although established space colonies are a stock element in science fiction stories, fictional works that explore the themes, social or practical, of the settlement and occupation of a habitable world are much rarer.
at

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