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Monday, August 18, 2025

Human migration

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Human migration is the movement of people from one place to another, with intentions of settling, permanently or temporarily, at a new location (geographic region). The movement often occurs over long distances and from one country to another (external migration), but internal migration (within a single country) is the dominant form of human migration globally.

Migration is often associated with better human capital at both individual and household level, and with better access to migration networks, facilitating a possible second move. It has a high potential to improve human development, and some studies confirm that migration is the most direct route out of poverty. Age is also important for both work and non-work migration. People may migrate as individuals, in family units or in large groups. There are four major forms of migration: invasion, conquest, colonization and emigration/immigration.

People moving from their home due to forced displacement (such as a natural disaster or civil disturbance) may be described as displaced persons or, if remaining in the home country, internally-displaced persons. People who flee to a different country due to political, religious, or other types of persecution in their home country can formally request shelter in the host country. These people are commonly referred to as asylum seekers. If the application is approved, their legal classification changes to that of refugees.

Definition

Depending on the goal and reason for relocation, migrants can be divided into three categories: migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. Each category is defined broadly as the combination of circumstances that motivate a person to change their location. As such, migrants are traditionally described as persons who change the country of residence for general reasons. These purposes may include better job opportunities or healthcare needs. This term is the most widely understood, as anyone changing their geographical location permanently is a migrant.

In contrast, refugees are defined by the UNHCR as "persons forced to flee their country because of violence or persecution". The reasons for the refugees' migration usually involve war actions within the country or other forms of oppression, coming either from the government or non-governmental sources. Refugees are usually associated with people who must unwillingly relocate as fast as possible; hence, such migrants are likely to relocate undocumented.

Asylum seekers are associated with persons who also leave their country unwillingly, yet, who also do not do so under oppressing circumstances such as war or death threats. The motivation to leave the country for asylum seekers might involve an unstable economic or political situation or high rates of crime. Thus, asylum seekers relocate predominantly to escape the degradation of the quality of their lives.

Nomadic movements usually are not regarded as migrations, as the movement is generally seasonal, there is no intention to settle in the new place, and only a few people have retained this form of lifestyle in modern times. Temporary movement for travel, tourism, pilgrimages, or the commute is also not regarded as migration, in the absence of an intention to live and settle in the visited places.

There exist many statistical estimates of worldwide migration patterns. The World Bank has published three editions of its Migration and Remittances Factbook, beginning in 2008, with a second edition appearing in 2011 and a third in 2016. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has published ten editions of the World Migration Report since 1999. The United Nations Statistics Division also keeps a database on worldwide migration. Recent advances in research on migration via the Internet promise better understanding of migration patterns and migration motives.

Structurally, there is substantial South–South and North–North migration; in 2013, 38% of all migrants had migrated from developing countries to other developing countries, while 23% had migrated from high-income OECD countries to other high-income countries. The United Nations Population Fund says that "while the North has experienced a higher absolute increase in the migrant stock since 2000 (32 million) compared to the South (25 million), the South recorded a higher growth rate. Between 2000 and 2013, the average annual rate of change of the migrant population in developing regions (2.3%) slightly exceeded that of the developed regions (2.1%)."

Substantial internal migration can also take place within a country, either seasonal human migration (mainly related to agriculture and tourism to urban places), or shifts of the population into cities (urbanisation) or out of cities (suburbanisation). However, studies of worldwide migration patterns tend to limit their scope to international migration.

International migrants, 1970–2015
Year Number of migrants Migrants as a %

of the world's population

1970 84,460,125 2.3%
1975 90,368,010 2.2%
1980 101,983,149 2.3%
1985 113,206,691 2.3%
1990 152,563,212 2.9%
1995 160,801,752 2.8%
2000 172,703,309 2.8%
2005 191,269,100 2.9%
2010 221,714,243 3.2%
2015 243,700,236 3.3%
2020 280 598 105 3.6%

Almost half of these migrants are women, one of the most significant migrant-pattern changes in the last half-century. Women migrate alone or with their family members and community. Even though female migration is largely viewed as an association rather than independent migration, emerging studies argue complex and manifold reasons for this.

As of 2019, the top ten immigration destinations were:

In the same year, the top countries of origin were:

Besides these rankings, according to absolute numbers of migrants, the Migration and Remittances Factbook also gives statistics for top immigration destination countries and top emigration origin countries according to percentage of the population; the countries that appear at the top of those rankings are entirely different from the ones in the above rankings and tend to be much smaller countries.

Typical grocery store on 8th Avenue in one of the Brooklyn Chinatowns on Long Island, New York.

New York City's multiple Chinatowns in Queens, Manhattan, and Brooklyn are thriving as traditionally urban enclaves, as large-scale Chinese immigration continues into New York, with the largest metropolitan Chinese population outside Asia, The New York metropolitan area contains the largest ethnic Chinese population outside of Asia, comprising an estimated 893,697 uniracial individuals as of 2017.

As of 2013, the top 15 migration corridors (accounting for at least two million migrants each) were:

Economic impacts

World economy

Dorothea Lange, Drought refugees from Oklahoma camping by the roadside, Blythe, California, 1936

The impacts of human migration on the world economy have been largely positive. In 2015, migrants, who constituted 3.3% of the world population, contributed 9.4% of global GDP.

At a microeconomic level, the value of a human mobility is largely recognized by firms. A 2021 survey by the Boston Consulting Group found that 72% of 850+ executives across several countries and industries believed that migration benefited their countries, and 45% considered globally diverse employees a strategic advantage.

According to the Centre for Global Development, opening all borders could add $78 trillion to the world GDP.

Remittances

Remittances (funds transferred by migrant workers to their home country) form a substantial part of the economy of some countries. The top ten remittance recipients in 2018.

Rank Country Remittance (in billions of US dollars) Percent of GDP
1 India 80 2.80
2 China 67 0.50
3 Philippines 34 9.14
4 Mexico 34 1.54
5 France 25 0.96
6 Nigeria 22 5.84
7 Egypt 20 8.43
8 Pakistan 20 6.57
9 Bangladesh 18 5.73
10 Vietnam 14 6.35

In addition to economic impacts, migrants also make substantial contributions in sociocultural and civic-political life. Sociocultural contributions occur in the following areas of societies: food/cuisine, sport, music, art/culture, ideas and beliefs; civic-political contributions relate to participation in civic duties in the context of accepted authority of the State. It is in recognition of the importance of these remittances that the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 10 targets to substantially reduce the transaction costs of migrants remittances to less than 3% by 2030.

Voluntary and forced migration

Migration is usually divided into voluntary migration and forced migration. The distinction between involuntary (fleeing political conflict or natural disaster) and voluntary migration (economic or labour migration) is difficult to make and partially subjective, as the motivators for migration are often correlated. The World Bank estimated that, as of 2010, 16.3 million or 7.6% of migrants qualified as refugees. This number grew to 19.5 million by 2014 (comprising approximately 7.9% of the total number of migrants, based on the figure recorded in 2013). At levels of roughly 3 percent the share of migrants among the world population has remained remarkably constant over the last 5 decades.

Voluntary migration

Voluntary migration is based on the initiative and the free will of the person and is influenced by a combination of factors: economic, political and social: either in the migrants' country of origin (determinant factors or "push factors") or in the country of destination (attraction factors or "pull factors"). "Push-pull factors" are the reasons that push or attract people to a particular place. "Push" factors are the negative aspects(for example wars) of the country of origin, often decisive in people's choice to emigrate. The "pull" factors are the positive aspects of a different country that encourages people to emigrate to seek a better life. For example, the government of Armenia periodically gives incentives to people who will migrate to live in villages close to the border with Azerbaijan. This is an implementation of a push strategy, and the reason people do not want to live near the border is security concerns given tensions and hostility because of Azerbaijan.

Although the push-pull factors are opposed, both are sides of the same coin, being equally important. Although specific to forced migration, any other harmful factor can be considered a "push factor" or determinant/trigger factor, such examples being: poor quality of life, lack of jobs, excessive pollution, hunger, drought or natural disasters. Such conditions represent decisive reasons for voluntary migration, the population preferring to migrate in order to prevent financially unfavorable situations or even emotional and physical suffering.

Forced migration

There are contested definitions of forced migration. However, the editors of a leading scientific journal on the subject, the Forced Migration Review, offer the following definition: Forced migration refers to the movements of refugees and internally displaced people (displaced by conflict) as well as people displaced by natural or environmental disasters, chemical or nuclear disasters, famine, or development projects. These different causes of migration leave people with one choice, to move to a new environment. Immigrants leave their beloved homes to seek a life in camps, spontaneous settlement, and countries of asylum.

By the end of 2018, there were an estimated 67.2 million forced migrants globally – 25.9 million refugees displaced from their countries, and 41.3 million internally displaced persons that had been displaced within their countries for different reasons. In 2022, 6 million Ukrainian people fled their country; meanwhile, 3 million Syrian people fled in 3 years.

Transit migration

Transit migration is a highly debated term with no official definition. The common understanding is that it describes immigrants who are in the process of moving to an end goal country. The term was first coined by the UN in 1990 to describe immigrants who were traveling through countries surrounding Europe to end up in a European Union state. Another example of transit migrants is Central Americans who travel through Mexico in order to live in the United States.

The term "transit migration" has generated a lot of debate among migration scholars and immigration institutions. Some criticize it as a Eurocentric term that was coined to place responsibility of migrants on states outside the European Union; and also to pressure those states to prevent migration onward to the European Union. Scholars note that EU countries also have identical migrant flows and therefore it is not clear (illogical or biased) why it is only migrants in non-EU countries that are labeled as transit migrants. It is also argued that the term "transit" glosses over the complexity and difficulty of migrant journeys: migrants face many types of violence while in transit; migrants often have no set end destination and must adjust their plan as they move (migrant journeys can take years and go through several stages).

Contemporary labor migration theories

Overview

Numerous causes impel migrants to move to another country. For instance, globalization has increased the demand for workers in order to sustain national economies. Thus one category of economic migrants – generally from impoverished developing countries – migrates to obtain sufficient income for survival. Such migrants often send some of their income homes to family members in the form of economic remittances, which have become an economic staple in a number of developing countries. People may also move or are forced to move as a result of conflict, of human-rights violations, of violence, or to escape persecution. In 2014, the UN Refugee agency estimated that around 59.5 million people fell into this category. Other reasons people may move include to gain access to opportunities and services or to escape extreme weather. This type of movement, usually from rural to urban areas, may be classed as internal migration. Sociology-cultural and ego-historical factors also play a major role. In North Africa, for example, emigrating to Europe counts as a sign of social prestige. Moreover, many countries were former colonies. This means that many have relatives who live legally in the (former) colonial metro pole and who often provide important help for immigrants arriving in that metropole.

Relatives may help with job research and with accommodation. The geographical proximity of Africa to Europe and the long historical ties between Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries also prompt many to migrate. Whether a person decides to move to another country depends on the relative skill premier of the source and host countries. One is speaking of positive selection when the host country shows a higher skill premium than the source country. On the other hand, negative selection occurs when the source country displays a lower skill premium. The relative skill premia define migrants selectivity. Age heaping techniques display one method to measure the relative skill premium of a country. A number of theories attempt to explain the international flow of capital and people from one country to another.

Research contributions

Recent academic output on migration comprises mainly journal articles. The long-term trend shows a gradual increase in academic publishing on migration, which is likely to be related to the general expansion of academic literature production, and the increased prominence of migration research. Migration and its research have further changed with the revolution in information and communication technologies.

Neoclassical economic theory

This migration theory states that the main reason for labour migration is wage difference between two geographic locations. These wage differences are usually linked to geographic labour demand and supply. It can be said that areas with a shortage of labour but an excess of capital have a high relative wage while areas with a high labour supply and a dearth of capital have a low relative wage. Labour tends to flow from low-wage areas to high-wage areas. Often, with this flow of labour comes changes in the sending and the receiving country. Neoclassical economic theory best describes transnational migration because it is not confined by international immigration laws and similar governmental regulations.

Dual labor market theory

Dual labour market theory states that pull factors in more developed countries mainly cause migration. This theory assumes that the labour markets in these developed countries consist of two segments: the primary market, which requires high-skilled labour, and the secondary market, which is very labour-intensive, requiring low-skilled workers. This theory assumes that migration from less developed countries into more developed countries results from a pull created by a need for labour in the developed countries in their secondary market. Migrant workers are needed to fill the lowest rung of the labour market because the native labourers do not want to do these jobs as they present a lack of mobility. This creates a need for migrant workers. Furthermore, the initial dearth in available labour pushes wages up, making migration even more enticing.

New economics of labor migration

This theory states that migration flows and patterns cannot be explained solely at the level of individual workers and their economic incentives but that wider social entities must also be considered. One such social entity is the household. Migration can be viewed as a result of risk aversion from a household that has insufficient income. In this case, the household needs extra capital that can be achieved through remittances sent back by family members who participate in migrant labour abroad. These remittances can also have a broader effect on the economy of the sending country as a whole as they bring in capital. Recent research has examined a decline in US interstate migration from 1991 to 2011, theorising that the reduced interstate migration is due to a decline in the geographic specificity of occupations and an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving there, through both information technology and inexpensive travel. Other researchers find that the location-specific nature of housing is more important than moving costs in determining labour reallocation.

Relative deprivation theory

Relative deprivation theory states that awareness of the income difference between neighbours or other households in the migrant-sending community is essential in migration. The incentive to migrate is a lot higher in areas with a high level of economic inequality. In the short run, remittances may increase inequality, but in the long run, they may decrease it. There are two stages of migration for workers: first, they invest in human capital formation, and then they try to capitalise on their investments. In this way, successful migrants may use their new capital to provide better schooling for their children and better homes for their families. Successful high-skilled emigrants may serve as an example for neighbours and potential migrants who hope to achieve that level of success.

World systems theory

World-systems theory looks at migration from a global perspective. It explains that interaction between different societies can be an important factor in social change. Trade with one country, which causes an economic decline in another, may create incentive to migrate to a country with a more vibrant economy. It can be argued that even after decolonisation, the economic dependence of former colonies remains on mother countries. However, this view of international trade is controversial, and some argue that free trade can reduce migration between developing and developed countries. It can be argued that the developed countries import labour-intensive goods, which causes an increase in the employment of unskilled workers in the less developed countries, decreasing the outflow of migrant workers. Exporting capital-intensive goods from rich countries to developing countries also equalises income and employment conditions, thus slowing migration. In either direction, this theory can be used to explain migration between countries that are geographically far apart.

Osmosis theory

Based on the history of human migration osmosis theory studies the evolution of its natural determinants. In this theory migration is divided into two main types: simple and complicated. The simple migration is divided, in its turn, into diffusion, stabilisation and concentration periods. During these periods, water availability, adequate climate, security and population density represent the natural determinants of human migration. The complicated migration is characterised by the speedy evolution and the emergence of new sub-determinants, notably earning, unemployment, networks, and migration policies. Osmosis theory explains analogically human migration by the biophysical phenomenon of osmosis. In this respect, the countries are represented by animal cells, the borders by the semipermeable membranes and the humans by ions of water. According to the theory, according to the osmosis phenomenon, humans migrate from countries with less migration pressure to countries with high migration pressure. To measure the latter, the natural determinants of human migration replace the variables of the second principle of thermodynamics used to measure the osmotic pressure.

Social-scientific theories

Sociology

A number of social scientists have examined immigration from a sociological perspective, paying particular attention to how immigration affects and is affected by, matters of race and ethnicity, as well as social structure. They have produced three main sociological perspectives:

In the 21st century, as attention has shifted away from countries of destination, sociologists have attempted to understand how transnationalism allows us to understand the interplay between migrants, their countries of destination, and their countries of origins. In this framework, work on social remittances by Peggy Levitt and others has led to a stronger conceptualisation of how migrants affect socio-political processes in their countries of origin. Much work also takes place in the field of integration of migrants into destination-societies.

Political science

Political scientists have put forth a number of theoretical frameworks relating to migration, offering different perspectives on processes of securitycitizenship, and international relations. The political importance of diasporas has also become in the 21st century a growing field of interest, as scholars examine questions of diaspora activism, state-diaspora relations, out-of-country voting processes, and states' soft power strategies. In this field, the majority of work has focused on immigration politics, viewing migration from the perspective of the country of destination. With regard to emigration processes, political scientists have expanded on Albert Hirschman's framework on '"voice" vs. "exit" to discuss how emigration affects the politics within countries of origin.

Historical theories

Ravenstein

Certain laws of social science have been proposed to describe human migration. The following was a standard list after Ernst Georg Ravenstein's proposal in the 1880s:

  1. every migration flow generates a return or counter migration.
  2. the majority of migrants move a short distance.
  3. migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big-city destinations.
  4. urban residents are often less migratory than inhabitants of rural areas.
  5. families are less likely to make international moves than young adults.
  6. most migrants are adults.
  7. large towns grow by migration rather than natural increase.
  8. migration stage by stage (step migration).
  9. urban, rural difference.
  10. migration and technology.
  11. economic condition.

Push and pull

Demographer Everett S. Lee's model divides factors causing migrations into two groups of factors: push and pull. Push factors are things that are unfavourable about the home area that one lives in, and pull factors are things that attract one to another host area.

Push factors:

  • Not enough jobs
  • Few opportunities
  • Conscription (draft young men into army)
  • Famine or drought
  • Political fear of persecution
  • Poor medical care
  • Loss of wealth
  • Natural disasters
  • Death threats
  • Desire for more political or religious freedom
  • Pollution
  • Poor housing
  • Discrimination
  • Poor chances of marrying
  • War or threat of invasion
  • Disease

Pull factors:

  • Job opportunities
  • Better living conditions
  • The feeling of having more political or religious freedom
  • Enjoyment
  • Education
  • Better medical care
  • Attractive climates
  • Security
  • Family links
  • Industry
  • Better chances of marrying

Climate cycles

The modern field of climate history suggests that the successive waves of Eurasian nomadic movement throughout history have had their origins in climatic cycles, which have expanded or contracted pastureland in Central Asia, especially Mongolia and to its west the Altai Mountains. People were displaced from their home ground by other tribes trying to find land that essential flocks could graze, each group pushing the next further to the south and west, into the highlands of Anatolia, the Pannonian Plain, into Mesopotamia, or southwards, into the rich pastures of China. Bogumil Terminski uses the term "migratory domino effect" to describe this process in the context of Sea People invasion.

Food, sex, and security

The theory is that migration occurs because individuals search for food, sex and security outside their usual habitation; Idyorough (2008) believes that towns and cities are a creation of the human struggle to obtain food, sex and security. To produce food, security and reproduction, human beings must, out of necessity, move out of their usual habitation and enter into indispensable social relationships that are cooperative or antagonistic. Human beings also develop the tools and equipment to interact with nature to produce the desired food and security. The improved relationship (cooperative relationships) among human beings and improved technology further conditioned by the push and pull factors all interact together to cause or bring about migration and higher concentration of individuals into towns and cities. The higher the technology of production of food and security and the higher the cooperative relationship among human beings in the production of food and security and the reproduction of the human species, the higher would be the push and pull factors in the migration and concentration of human beings in towns and cities. Countryside, towns and cities do not just exist, but they do so to meet the basic human needs of food, security and the reproduction of the human species. Therefore, migration occurs because individuals search for food, sex and security outside their usual habitation. Social services in the towns and cities are provided to meet these basic needs for human survival and pleasure.

Other models

Migration governance

By their very nature, international migration and displacement are transnational issues concerning the origin and destination States and States through which migrants may travel (often referred to as "transit" States) or in which they are hosted following displacement across national borders. And yet, somewhat paradoxically, the majority of migration governance has historically remained with individual states. Their policies and regulations on migration are typically made at the national level. For the most part, migration governance has been closely associated with State sovereignty. States retain the power of deciding on the entry and stay of non-nationals because migration directly affects some of the defining elements of a State. Comparative surveys reveal varying degrees of openness to migrants across countries, considering policies such as visa availability, employment prerequisites, and paths to residency.

Bilateral and multilateral arrangements are features of migration governance at an international level. There are several global arrangements in the form of international treaties in which States have reached an agreement on the application of human rights and the related responsibilities of States in specific areas. The 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (Refugee Convention) are two significant examples notable for being widely ratified. Other migration conventions have not been so broadly accepted, such as the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families, which still has no traditional countries of destination among its States parties. Beyond this, there have been numerous multilateral and global initiatives, dialogues and processes on migration over several decades. The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (Global Compact for Migration) is another milestone, as the first internationally negotiated statement of objectives for migration governance striking a balance between migrants' rights and the principle of States' sovereignty over their territory. Although it is not legally binding, the Global Compact for Migration was adopted by consensus in December 2018 at a United Nations conference in which more than 150 United Nations Member States participated and, later that same month, in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), by a vote among the Member States of 152 to 5 (with 12 abstentions).

Migration programs

Colonialism and colonization opens up distant territories and their people to migration, having dominated what is identified as modern migration. Colonialism globalized systems of migration and established ties effective until today.

While classic modern colonialism relied on the subjugation and rule of local indigenous peoples by small groups of conquering metropolitan people, soon forced migration, through slavery or indentured servitude supplanted the subjugated local indigenous peoples. Settler colonialism later continued or established the rule of the colonizers through migration, particularly settlement. Settler colonies relied on the attraction of metropolitan migrants with the promise of settlement and increasingly outnumbering, displacing or killing indigenous peoples.

Only in the late stage of colonialism migration flows oriented towards the metropole instead of out or outside of it. After decolonization migration ties between former colonies to former metropoles have been continuing. Today's independent countries have developed selective or targeted foreign worker policies or programs, with the aim of boosting economies with skilled or relatively cheap new local labour, while discrimination and exploitation are often fed by ethnic nationalist opposition to such policies.

Arctic policy of the United States

Alaska, America's Arctic, is positioned between Asia, Europe and the Eastern US - Barrow to Hammerfest, Norway (2631) is 1254 air miles shorter than Washington DC to Oslo (3885). Anchorage to DC is 3371; Anchorage to Tokyo 3461.
"Polar Sea" by George Curtis (1867 – same year US became an Arctic nation)

The Arctic policy of the United States is the foreign policy of the United States in regard to the Arctic region. In addition, the United States' domestic policy toward Alaska is part of its Arctic policy.

Since March 30, 1867 (when the United States purchased Alaska from the Russian Empire), the United States of America has been one of the eight Arctic nations and one of the five Arctic Ocean littoral countries. The United States has been a member of the Arctic Council since its inception in 1996 and assumed the Chairmanship (from Canada) in April 2015. 4 of the Arctic Council's 6 Permanent Participant indigenous organizations have representatives in Alaska. The United States is also an observer of the Conference of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region.

Since 1880, the global temperature has risen 0.8°C; but the temperature in the Arctic has warmed twice as much, leading to much less sea ice coverage and greater accessibility to natural resources, transport passages and fisheries. Between 1971 and 2019 the temperature in the Arctic was three times higher than the increase in the global average during the same period.

The goals stated in the United States Arctic Policy released in NSPD-66 on January 9, 2009, are as follows: Meet national security and homeland security needs relevant to the Arctic region; Protect the Arctic environment and conserve its biological resources; Ensure that natural resource management and economic development in the region are environmentally sustainable; Strengthen institutions for cooperation among the eight Arctic nations (the United States, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, and Sweden); Involve the Arctic's indigenous communities in decisions that affect them; and Enhance scientific monitoring and research into local, regional, and global environmental issues.

On May 10, 2013, the Obama White House released the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, emphasizing three areas: advancing U.S. security interests, pursuing responsible Arctic region stewardship, and strengthening international cooperation.

Canada is the United States' closest partner in Arctic affairs, due to geographic proximity and similar Arctic policy directives. The countries work together on scientific research, including mapping the Arctic sea floor. Two significant disagreements are the border dispute in the Beaufort Sea and the legal designation (international or internal waters) of the Northwest Passage.

Background and history

The current Arctic policy of the United States has its beginnings under President Richard Nixon. In December 1971, Nixon issued National Security Decision Memorandum 144 to address the United States' stance toward the Arctic. The memo suggested that the development of the United States' Arctic policy focus on three key areas: minimize adverse risks to the environment; promote international cooperation in the Arctic; and provide for the protection of security interests in the region.

Summertime Arctic-wide sea ice extent simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model for the historical period 1860 to 2000 and projected for the 21st century following the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Sea ice extent values are normalized (scaled) so that the average for years 1981 to 2000 is equal to 100%. Totally ice free summer conditions would equal 0%.

In 1984, the United States Congress passed the "Arctic and Policy Act of 1984" to provide for the national defense of the region, enhance commercial fishing endeavors, and fund environmental and climate research in the region. The United States remained largely quiet in the international arena with regard to Arctic policy until joining the eight other Arctic countries by signing the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy agreement in 1991. The main purpose behind this agreement was to coordinate the protection of the Arctic region by: researching the various pollutants in the region and sharing the data; assessing the environmental impacts of development activities; and controlling pollutants and their effects on the Arctic environment.

In 1996 the United States signed the Ottawa Declaration and became a founding member of the Arctic Council. It added as footnote "The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security". The Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy was absorbed into the Arctic Council following the Yalta Declaration in 1997.

In May 2008, five Arctic nations met to adopt the Illulissat Declaration, which recognized the 'law of the sea'. The participants were informally referred to as the "Arctic Five," distinguishing themselves from their national Arctic counterparts as the five shared borders with the Arctic Ocean. The US has not ratified UNCLOS and is the only Arctic nation yet to join, even though the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations favored ratification. At the March 29, 2010, "Arctic Five" meeting in Ottawa, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized Canada for not inviting the other three Arctic nations or indigenous groups. The Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister, Lawrence Cannon, said the meeting was not intended to, "replace or undermine the Arctic Council".

The Arctic Council continues to be the United States' favored international forum for discussing Arctic issues, and the face of the State Department's external engagement in the Arctic. The US has also developed a national strategy toward the region that addresses security, natural resources, and claims of sovereignty in the region. This began in the Bush administration with the issuance of "National Security Presidential Directive 66" (NSPD-66) in 2009, and remains in effect throughout the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. NSPD-66's mission is to support the ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), promote participation in the Arctic Council, develop agreements with other Arctic countries on increased human activity in the region, and "continue to cooperate with other countries on Arctic issues through the United Nations (U.N.) and its specialized agencies." The policy argues against the need for a treaty among Arctic nations similar to the Antarctic Treaty restricting commercial and military activities. The policy calls for the US to "assert a more active and influential national presence to protect its Arctic interests and project sea power throughout the region," and to secure free passage of vessels through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route.

The diminishment of Arctic sea ice has provided the strongest impetus for a more assertive United States policy in the Arctic region. The United States focuses on numerous facets of the Arctic region in promoting and explaining their reasoning for a stronger policy position in the region. As an Arctic country with territory at stake, the United States is continuously pushing for a larger influence in the region to pursue industry and energy development considerations. One of the tenets of NSPD-66 is the ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), this would provide clarity and the appropriate framework for the United States to submit a claim to some area of the Arctic as the sea ice continues to melt. In addition, new passageways in commercial shipping may become available due to the breaking of ice.

The population influx in the Arctic region is also predicted to coincide with more commercial shipping, marine tourism, and the transportation of large passenger vessels. This poses coverage gaps to the US Navy and US Coast Guard search and rescue functions. Due to the non-military nature of the Arctic Council, the United States will also need to pursue separate military agreements with other Arctic countries to ensure a protected and secure region. In 2019 United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that circumstances had changed for the Arctic Council as "the region has become an arena for power and for competition. And the eight Arctic states must adapt to this new future". Then-President Donald Trump also made headlines for expressing interest in purchasing Greenland, even though it is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark.

United States Executive Agencies Active in Arctic Policy

The US Arctic Policy Group is a federal interagency working group comprising those agencies with programs and/or involvement in research and monitoring, land and natural resources management, environmental protection, human health, transportation and policymaking in the Arctic. The APG is chaired by the Department of State and meets monthly to develop and implement US programs and policies in the Arctic, including those relevant to the activities of the Arctic Council.

The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force was initiated by the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and NOAA in 2009 and includes representatives from more than 20 federal agencies. President Obama has called on the Task Force to develop federal recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts both domestically and internationally.

Executive Office of the President (White House)

The EOP is headed by the White House Chief of Staff. Entities within the EOP include: Council on Environmental Quality, National Security Council, Office of Management and Budget, Office of Science and Technology Policy, President's Intelligence Advisory Board, and others.

The CEQ's Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force released its Final Recommendations July 19, 2010. One recommendation was to create The National Ocean Council (NOC), which is co-chaired by the CEQ and the OSTP. The USARC, in conjunction with the Navy and under the aegis of the National Ocean Council, is developing an Arctic Strategic Action Plan.

Congress established the Office of Science and Technology Policy in 1976 with a broad mandate to advise the President and others within the Executive Office of the President on the effects of science and technology on domestic and international affairs. The mission of the policy is to ensure that Federal investments in science and technology are making the most out of the contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality, and national security. It lightens up the process by which government programs in science and technology are resourced, evaluated, and coordinated. Maintain professional relationship between government officials and science representatives. This organization also co-chairs the National Ocean Council.

United States Department of State

The State Department's Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES) includes the Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs (OPA), which is responsible for formulating and implementing US policy on international issues concerning the oceans, the Arctic, and Antarctica. Julie Gourley at the OES is the Senior Arctic Official representing the United States at Arctic Council meetings. In 2011, the OES's Deputy Assistant Secretary David Balton was the lead US negotiator for the Arctic Council's search and rescue initiative. On July 16, 2014, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced the appointment of Retired Admiral Robert Papp to Serve as U.S. Special Representative for the Arctic.

In September, 2016, the Department of State's International Security Advisory Board issued a report on Arctic Policy. The report calls for: 1) Continued U.S. leadership in the Arctic; 2) Speedy Law of the Sea treaty ratification; 3) Increased “presence” and “domain awareness”; 4) Increased and continued cooperation among the Arctic nations; 5) Adopting appropriate policies regarding Russian interests, policies, and activities in the Arctic; and 6) Strengthening possible ‘Transparency and Confidence Building Measures’ in the Arctic region.

The US Navy's Task Force Climate Change released the Navy Arctic Roadmap in November 2009 and the Navy Climate Change Roadmap in April 2010. (Formerly The Navy had icebreakers, but now uses submarines in the Arctic.) Admiral Gary Roughead believes overfishing and melting sea ice are increasing the importance of the Navy in the Arctic. He also favors the United States ratifying the United Nations Law of the Sea Treaty “so we have a seat at the table’’ and so the United States could “expand its sovereign rights to the increasingly accessible outer continental shelf areas of the resource-rich environment of the Arctic.’’ Navy Rear Admiral David Titley was heavily involved in Arctic Policy.

The 2016 version of the DoD's Arctic Strategy defined the following "ways and means" in which the DoD will use its resources to achieve its arctic objectives:

  • Enhance the capability of U.S. forces to defend the homeland and exercise sovereignty;
  • Strengthen deterrence at home and abroad;
  • Strengthen alliances and partnerships;
  • Preserve freedom of the seas in the Arctic;
  • Engage public, private, and international partners to improve domain awareness in the Arctic;
  • Evolve DoD Arctic infrastructure and capabilities consistent with changing conditions and needs;
  • Provide support to civil authorities, as directed;
  • Partner with other departments, agencies, and nations to support human and environmental security; and
  • Support international institutions that promote regional cooperation and the rule of law.

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 mandates the establishment of a new strategic Arctic port.

DoD's current arctic strategy

The Department of Defense released an updated Arctic strategy in June 2019, which listed three national security interests: "The Arctic as the U.S. homeland; the Arctic as a shared region; and the Arctic as a potential corridor for strategic competition." The document articulated three strategic approaches to build on those interests: "building Arctic awareness; enhancing Arctic operations; and strengthening the rules-based order in the Arctic." Additionally, with the exception of the US Space Force, the service branches have all issued their own Arctic strategy documents in recent years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Arctic information and a set of indicators describing the current state of the Arctic ecosystem. NOAA predicts a nearly ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean before 2050.

NOAA issued its Arctic Vision and Strategy in April, 2010. The Strategy delineates six main goals: to forecast sea ice, strengthen the understanding of science, improve weather forecasts, establish international partnerships, improve the management of coastal resources in the Arctic, and "advance resilient and healthy Arctic communities and economies."

The Department of the Interior has arguably the most extensive and diverse set of Federal equities and responsibilities in the region, including protection of wildlife and habitat, federal trusteeship for Alaska Natives, and leasing responsibilities for onshore and offshore areas suitable for mineral development and production. The total federal lands estate in Alaska is nearly equal to the combined area of Texas and Wyoming, all managed by Department of the Interior bureaus including the Bureau of Land Management, the US Fish & Wildlife Service, and the National Park Service. President Obama's Executive Order 13580 created the Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska chaired by the Deputy Secretary of the Interior and including many federal agencies. Part of the Working Group's mandate was to develop "a framework for making integrated Arctic management decisions" and present a report to the President by 12.31.12. The report, titled "Managing for the Future in a Rapidly Changing Arctic" included input from industrial and commercial stakeholders, the State of Alaska, Tribal governments and Alaska Native organizations, municipal governments, conservation organizations, and federal agencies. The report was released to the public in March 2013, and called for sustained high-level leadership from the White House on integrated Arctic management; a strengthening of key partnerships in the region with the State of Alaska and Alaska Native tribal governments and organizations; improved stakeholder engagement in important decision processes in the region; and more coordinated, streamlined federal actions in regard to science and management, environmental evaluations, and important cultural and ecological areas. The report was well received by the full spectrum of stakeholders in the region, many of whom made statements of support for this "call to action on a pressing issue of national importance." Alaska Senator Mark Begich described the report as "required reading for every member of Congress".

The Coast Guard is a large player in Arctic maritime affairs. On May 21, 2013, the "U.S Coast Guard's Vision for Operating in the Arctic Region" was released. The Coast Guard's most current Arctic strategy was published in April 2019, titled "Arctic Strategic Outlet," and lists three lines of effort:

  1. Enhance capability to operate effectively in a dynamic Arctic
  2. Strengthen the rules-based order
  3. Innovate and adapt to promote resilience and prosperity

The Office of Polar Programs (OPP) manages National Science Foundation funding for basic research in the Arctic and the Antarctic. The funds are provided as NSF grants to institutions to find any substantial results. OPP supports individual investigators or research teams and U.S. participation projects. Projects can involve investigators from many broad perspectives. OPP has two science divisions one each for the Arctic and the Antarctic. A third division manages the provision of logistic, support operations including field stations, camps, and laboratories. The United States is a leading nation in polar science, and research results have global significance.

Other U.S. executive agencies active in Arctic policy

The Department of Energy deals with pipeline issues and energy efficiency in Alaska.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is active in Alaska through USDA Rural Development and the Rural Utilities Service.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Region 10 covers Alaska.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services includes the Indian Health Service: Alaska Area. Erosion and the melting of permafrost continue to present challenges. Some native villages are being forced to move, and the culture continues to evolve due to the changing landscape and the continuing migration of food sources.

The secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation chairs the Committee on the Marine Transportation System (CMTS), a Cabinet-level partnership of Federal departments and agencies with responsibility for the Marine Transportation System. Public comment on the CMTS U.S. Arctic Marine Transportation System Draft Report was closed April 22, 2013. A final draft is being developed for consideration by the CMTS Coordinating Board.

United States Senate

Senator Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)

Senator Lisa Murkowski is a strong proponent of ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. She introduced three Arctic bills in the 111th Congress:

  • Legislation to implement some of the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment recommendations, including a study on infrastructure needed for increased Arctic maritime transportation; and construction of two new heavy icebreakers to replace the aging Polar Sea and Polar Star.
  • Legislation amending the Hydrographic Services Improvement Act to authorize funding to get data and services to the Arctic for safe navigation, delineation of the US-extended continental shelf, and for monitoring of coastal changes.
  • Legislation to study the feasibility, location and resource needs for an Arctic deep water port.

After participating in the 10th Conference of Arctic Parliamentarians in Iceland, Senator Murkowski sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in September 2012 suggesting that they work together to designate "a senior political official to serve as the United States' Ambassador of the Arctic." The letter also calls for: strengthening the Arctic Council so that the council will be viewed by non-Arctic entities as the primary forum for Arctic cooperation; greater participation by Arctic indigenous peoples in the council's work; and greater engagement by non-Arctic nations like Singapore, Japan, China and South Korea.

Senator Mark Begich (Alaska)

On August 3, 2009, Sen. Begich introduced the Inuvikput Package of Senate Bills 1560–1566:

  • Arctic OCS Revenue Sharing Act: Share potential federal revenues from offshore oil & gas development with the State of Alaska and residents most affected by development
  • Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Implementation Act: Implement the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment
  • Arctic Science, Coordination, and Integration Act: Have the National Research Council study long-term Arctic research strategies and coordination
  • Arctic Ambassador Act: Appointing a US Ambassador to the Arctic
  • Arctic Oil Spill Research & Recovery Act: Have the Sec. of Commerce research improved methods of oil spill prevention and response in the Arctic and require the Coast Guard to access and reduce risk from Arctic spills
  • Better Health in the Arctic Act: Initiate a study into Arctic health problems, institute an Arctic Health assessment program at CDC and create an "Arctic desk" at the National Institute of Health.
  • Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Act: Help the State of Alaska, Native organizations, and Arctic communities adapt to impacts of climate change

State of Alaska

Governor of Alaska

Because Alaska makes the United States an Arctic nation, the state is directly involved in much Arctic research, security, and policy. 90% of the state-funded portion of the budget comes from oil tax revenue—the fisheries industry is also very significant.

Governor Parnell delivered a speech at a US Senate field hearing on Alaska's role in U.S. Arctic Policy on August 20, 2009. The Climate Change Sub-Cabinet (created in 2007) advises the Governor on Alaska climate change strategy.

The Alaska Arctic Council Ad Hoc Working Group is chaired by the Alaska Governor's DC office and includes representatives of the US Department of State, the State of Alaska, Native organizations, universities, the private sector, non-governmental organizations and federal agencies in Alaska. It meets monthly and provides a consolidated Alaskan viewpoint on Arctic issues to the Department of State and other federal policymakers and keeps Alaska informed of US policy issues in the Arctic and Arctic Council affairs.

State of Alaska administrative departments

The Alaska Region, with USGS and Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, hosts the Alaska Climate Change Executive Roundtable, a coalition of senior level executives of both federal and state resource management agencies from throughout Alaska that has been meeting regularly since the Climate Change Forum for Alaska in February 2007 to share information and facilitate cooperation among agencies.

The Alaska Department of Fish & Game assists with Arctic Policy in the concerns of Marine Environment Protection in the area of policy dealing with scientifically supported work groups. This department assists in controlling the amount of fishing to be done and when a season is to be opened or closed to protect the population of marine life.

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources' Division of Coastal and Ocean Management closed operations in July 2011.

The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation's Division of Spill Prevention and Response (SPAR) works on the prevention, preparedness and response of oil spills within Alaska, including Arctic areas of the state. This team also assists in the conservation of arctic flora and fauna, protection of marine life, and sustainable development through the monitoring of oil.

The Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development's Division of Community and Regional Affairs (DCRA) actively provides various forms of assistance to Alaskan residents, most notably in smaller villages including those in Arctic regions.

The Alaska Northern Waters Task Force (NWTF) was tasked with facilitating the creation of a joint federal-state entity to coordinate US and Alaskan interests that result from the warming of the northern oceans. The Task Force released its final report January 2012. Per the Task Force's recommendation, the Alaska Arctic Policy Commission was legislatively created April 2012, and held its first meeting March 23, 2012 in Juneau. The commission will carry on the work of the NWTF in more detail, and create an actionable Arctic policy for Alaska.

Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska

Arctic research policy

Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC)

IARPC (U.S. Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee) consists of fifteen-plus agencies, departments, and offices across the US federal government and is chaired by the National Science Foundation. The IARPC agency helps set priorities for the future of Arctic research. IARPC develops the US Arctic Research Plan and coordinates US research programs to support US Arctic policy. They work with Arctic Research Commission to formulate national Arctic research policies, discuss research programs and details for funding support. They write the five-year plan to implement national policy and responsible for the updates in policy. Coordinate multiagency budget documents and promote cooperative Arctic scientific research program. IARPC submits yearly accomplishments report to the congress.

United States Arctic Research Commission

The US Arctic Research Commission was established by an Act of 1984 (as amended, Public Law 101–609). Commission's main purpose is to establish the national policy, priorities, and goals necessary to construct a federal program plan for basic and applied scientific research with respect to the Arctic, including natural resources and materials, physical, biological and health sciences, and social and behavioral sciences and to recommend Arctic research policy, and to communicate our research and policy recommendations to the President and the Congress. They also work with National Science and Technology Council as a responsible agency that support cooperation and collaboration through Federal Government. Commission's also gives guidance to (IARPC) in the development of Arctic research projects. They also work on international level by interacting with international research organizations to obtain broadest view of Arctic research.

There are total seven commissioners appointed by the President. Four members are from academic institutions, two members are from private commercial activities in the Arctic and one member is the resident of the US Arctic. The Commission staff consists of an executive director, communication Specialist and Deputy Executive director. The Commission appoints advisers on as needed basis to advise on particular research projects. The Commission holds meetings and public hearings in Alaska to receive input. They also make site visits and field trips to the research facilities to acquire knowledge about ongoing projects. USARC Report on Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2013–2014

Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS)

The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States was formed in 1988 to identify and bring together the human and facilities resources of the Arctic research community in the United States. ARCUS makes foundation for important research, produces scientific reports with research community recommendations for arctic science priorities, and distributes information to the community. The purpose of ARCUS is to strengthen the foundations of Arctic research by providing leadership in advancing knowledge. It serves as a forum for planning studies of Arctic research, acting as a synthesizer of the scientific information relevant to geographical location and encouraging the public to attain more scientific education that will provide more opportunities of research in Arctic. ARCUS is a non-profit corporation consisting of institutions organized and operated for educational, professional, or scientific purposes. The ARCUS headquarters and staff are located in Fairbanks, Alaska.

University of Alaska

National Snow and Ice Data Center

  • Antarctic Glaciological Data Center (AGDC)
  • Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA)
  • NASA IceBridge
    • NASA's Operation Icebridge program works with the NCIDC to monitor the Arctic region. The NASA aircraft missions include mapping surface and bedrock topography, determining ice/snow thickness and analyzing sea ice distribution. The areas that are monitored in the region include, but are not limited to, coastal Antarctica, interior Antarctica, Greenland and southeast Alaskan glaciers.
  • NOAA at NSIDC
  • NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at NSIDC (NSIDC DAAC)
  • Roger G. Barry Resource Office for Cryospheric Studies (ROCS)

Arctic natural resources

The Arctic contains significant deposits of precious minerals, timber, and fish. Research plans to determine the extent of the US Outer Continental Shelf and the amounts of resources it contains is a primary directive of the US Arctic policy delineated in NSPD-66.

Environmental protection and conservation of natural resources

The Arctic environment is unique and changing. Despite the heavy research, the Arctic is still poorly understood. The need for sound scientific and socioeconomic information, Arctic environmental research, monitoring, and vulnerability assessments are top priorities. These priorities include sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost and coastal erosion, as well as the pollutants from the Arctic contaminating the region. As the temperature rises, contaminants locked in the ice and soils will be released into the air, water, and land. The increased human activity in the Arctic will lead to an increase of contaminants.

NSPD-66 policy states that for "environmental protection and conservation of natural resources, the Secretaries of State, the Interior, Commerce, and Homeland Security and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, in coordination with heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies, shall respond effectively to increased pollutants and other environmental challenges; continue to identify ways to conserve, protect, and sustainably manage Arctic species and ensure adequate enforcement presence to safeguard living marine resources; seek to develop ways to address changing and expanding commercial fisheries in the Arctic; and intensify efforts to develop scientific information on the adverse effects of pollutants on human health and the environment and work with other nations to reduce the introduction of key pollutants into the Arctic."

Oil and natural gas

The United States Geological Survey estimates that 22 percent of the world's oil and natural gas could be located beneath the Arctic. The estimate of oil availability to the US is in the range of 30 billion barrels while that of natural gas reserves could be 221 billion cubic feet.

Fisheries

The range of some sub-Arctic fish stocks is likely to extend into Arctic areas due to climate change, and decreasing ice-cover will likely lead to more fishing activity. Scientific understanding of Arctic fish populations is limited and needs to be studied before increased Arctic fishing occurs.

In May 2008, President Bush signed a joint resolution passed by Congress relating to Arctic Fisheries. The resolution stresses the need for the United States to work with other nations to conserve and manage future Arctic fisheries.

The NSPD-66 states,"The United States supports the application in the Arctic region of the general principles of international fisheries management outlined in the 1995 Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of December 10, 1982, relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks and similar instruments. The United States endorses the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems in the Arctic from destructive fishing practices and seeks to ensure an adequate enforcement presence to safeguard Arctic living marine resources."

The Arctic to north of the Atlantic, extensive commercial fisheries and international managerial mechanisms already exist. North of the Bering Strait, there are currently no significant commercial fisheries and no international management mechanisms.

The Arctic Fishery Management Plan went into effect December 3, 2009, closing the Arctic Management Area to commercial fishing.

Linear no-threshold model

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