Hazard

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard

A hazard pictogram to indicate a hazard from a flammable substance.

A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would potentially allow them to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk. This term is often used synonymously in colloquial speech.

Hazards can be classified in several ways which are not mutually exclusive. They can be classified by causing actor (for example, natural or anthropogenic), by physical nature (e.g. biological or chemical) or by type of damage (e.g., health hazard or environmental hazard). Examples of natural disasters with highly harmful impacts on a society are floods, droughts, earthquakes, tropical cyclones, lightning strikes, volcanic activity and wildfires. Technological and anthropogenic hazards include, for example, structural collapses, transport accidents, accidental or intentional explosions, and release of toxic materials.

The term climate hazard is used in the context of climate change. These are hazards that stem from climate-related events and can be associated with global warming, such as wildfires, floods, droughts, sea level rise. Climate hazards can combine with other hazards and result in compound event losses (see also loss and damage). For example, the climate hazard of heat can combine with the hazard of poor air quality. Or the climate hazard flooding can combine with poor water quality.

In physics terms, common theme across many forms of hazards is the presence of energy that can cause damage, as it can happen with chemical energy, mechanical energy or thermal energy. This damage can affect different valuable interests, and the severity of the associated risk varies.

Definition

A hazard is defined as "the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources."

A hazard only exists if there is a pathway to exposure. For example, the center of the Earth consists of molten material at very high temperatures, which would be a severe hazard if contact could be made with the core. However, since that is not feasible, the Earth's core currently poses no hazard.

The frequency and severity of hazards are important aspects for risk management. Hazards may also be assessed in relation to the impact that they have.

In defining hazard Keith Smith argues that what may be defined as the hazard is only a hazard if there is the presence of humans to make it a hazard. In this regard, human sensitivity to environmental hazards is a combination of both physical exposure (natural and/or technological events at a location related to their statistical variability) and human vulnerability (about social and economic tolerance of the same location).

Relationship with other terms

Disaster

Main articles: Disaster and Natural disaster § Terminology

An example of the distinction between a natural hazard and a disaster is that an earthquake is the hazard which caused the 1906 San Francisco earthquake disaster.

A natural disaster is the highly harmful impact on a society or community following a natural hazard event. The term "disaster" itself is defined as follows: "Disasters are serious disruptions to the functioning of a community that exceed its capacity to cope using its own resources. Disasters can be caused by natural, man-made and technological hazards, as well as various factors that influence the exposure and vulnerability of a community."

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) explains the relationship between natural disasters and natural hazards as follows: "Natural hazards and natural disasters are related but are not the same. A natural hazard is the threat of an event that will likely have a negative impact. A natural disaster is the negative impact following an actual occurrence of natural hazard in the event that it significantly harms a community.

Disaster can take various forms, including hurricane, volcano, tsunami, earthquake, drought, famine, plague, disease, rail crash, car crash, tornado, deforestation, flooding, toxic release, and spills (oil, chemicals).

A disaster hazard is an extreme geophysical event that is capable of causing a disaster. 'Extreme' in this case means a substantial variation in either the positive or the negative direction from the normal trend; flood disasters can result from exceptionally high precipitation and river discharge, and drought is caused by exceptionally low values. The fundamental determinants of hazard and the risk of such hazards occurring is timing, location, magnitude and frequency. For example, magnitudes of earthquakes are measured on the Richter scale from 1 to 10, whereby each increment of 1 indicates a tenfold increase in severity. The magnitude-frequency rule states that over a significant period of time many small events and a few large ones will occur. Hurricanes and typhoons on the other hand occur between 5 degrees and 25 degrees north and south of the equator, tending to be seasonal phenomena that are thus largely recurrent in time and predictable in location due to the specific climate variables necessary for their formation.

Risk and vulnerability

Main articles: Risk and Vulnerability

The terms hazard and risk are often used interchangeably. However, in terms of risk assessment, these are two very distinct terms. A hazard is an agent that can cause harm or damage to humans, property, or the environment. Risk is the probability that exposure to a hazard will lead to a negative consequence, or more simply, a hazard poses no risk if there is no exposure to that hazard.

Risk is a combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. For example in terms of water security: examples of hazards are droughts, floods and decline in water quality. Bad infrastructure and bad governance lead to high exposure to risk.

Risk can be defined as the likelihood or probability of a given hazard of a given level causing a particular level of loss of damage. The elements of risk are populations, communities, the built environment, the natural environment, economic activities and services which are under threat of disaster in a given area.

Another definition of risk is "the probable frequency and probable magnitude of future losses". This definition also focuses on the probability of future loss whereby the degree of vulnerability to hazard represents the level of risk on a particular population or environment. The threats posed by a hazard are:

1. Hazards to people – death, injury, disease and stress
2. Hazards to goods – property damage and economic loss
3. Hazards to environment –loss of flora and fauna, pollution and loss of amenity

Classifications

Hazards can be classified in several ways. These categories are not mutually exclusive which means that one hazard can fall into several categories. For example, water pollution with toxic chemicals is an anthropogenic hazard as well as an environmental hazard.

One of the classification methods is by specifying the origin of the hazard. One key concept in identifying a hazard is the presence of stored energy that, when released, can cause damage. The stored energy can occur in many forms: chemical, mechanical, thermal, radioactive, electrical, etc.

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) explains that "each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity or magnitude, frequency and probability".

A distinction can also be made between rapid-onset natural hazards, technological hazards, and social hazards, which are described as being of sudden occurrence and relatively short duration, and the consequences of longer-term environmental degradation such as desertification and drought.

Hazards may be grouped according to their characteristics. These factors are related to geophysical events, which are not process specific:

1. Areal extent of damage zone
2. Intensity of impact at a point
3. Duration of impact at a point
4. Rate of onset of the event
5. Predictability of the event

By causing actor

Natural hazard

Main article: Natural disaster

Damage to valuable human interests can occur due to phenomena and processes of the natural environment. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, volcanoes and tsunami have threatened people, society, the natural environment, and the built environment, particularly more vulnerable people, throughout history, and in some cases, on a day-to-day basis. According to the Red Cross, each year 130,000 people are killed, 90,000 are injured and 140 million are affected by unique events known as natural disasters.

Potentially dangerous phenomena which are natural or predominantly natural (for example, exceptions are intentional floods) can be classified in these categories:

• Meteorological and hydrological hazards, e.g. lightning, storm, flood, sandstorm, fog, rogue wave, tsunami, snow, limnic eruption, cold wave, heat wave
• Geological hazards
  • Earthquake
  • Volcanism, which can cause a wide range of events, such as lava flow and ash fall^[16]
  • Surface or near-surface events, especially erosion and mass wasting (e.g. landslide)
• Extraterrestrial hazards, e.g. solar storm, impact event

Natural hazards can be influenced by human actions in different ways and to varying degrees, e.g. land-use change, drainage and construction. Humans play a central role in the existence of natural hazards because "it is only when people and their possessions get in the way of natural processes that hazard exists".

A natural hazard can be considered as a geophysical event when it occurs in extremes and a human factor is involved that may present a risk. There may be an acceptable variation of magnitude which can vary from the estimated normal or average range with upper and lower limits or thresholds. In these extremes, the natural occurrence may become an event that presents a risk to the environment or people. For example, above-average wind speeds resulting in a tropical depression or hurricane according to intensity measures on the Saffir–Simpson scale will provide an extreme natural event that may be considered a hazard.

Seismic hazard

Surface motion map for a hypothetical earthquake on the northern portion of the Hayward Fault Zone and its presumed northern extension, the Rodgers Creek Fault Zone

A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated, seismic risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning and determining insurance rates.

Tsunamis can be caused by geophysical hazards, such as in the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami.

Although generally a natural phenomenon, earthquakes can sometimes be induced by human interventions, such as injection wells, large underground nuclear explosions, excavation of mines, or reservoirs.

Volcanic hazard

A schematic diagram shows some of the many ways volcanoes can cause problems for those nearby.

A volcanic hazard is the probability a volcanic eruption or related geophysical event will occur in a given geographic area and within a specified window of time. The risk that can be associated with a volcanic hazard depends on the proximity and vulnerability of an asset or a population of people near to where a volcanic event might occur.

Anthropogenic hazard

Anthropogenic hazards, or human-induced hazards, are "induced entirely or predominantly by human activities and choices". These can be societal, technological or environmental hazards.

Technological hazard

Technological hazards are created by the possibility of failure associated with human technology (including emerging technologies), which can also impact the economy, health and national security.

For example, technological hazards can arise from the following events:

• Transport accidents: traffic collisions, navigation accidents, rail accidents, aviation accidents
• Nuclear materials-related accidents: nuclear plant accidents, nuclear weapon accidents and other nuclear accidents
• Chemical accidents and accidental explosions
• Mining accidents
• Space accidents
• Technological failures (including those that affect information and communications technology, such as cybersecurity threats) can cause disruptions to the energy industry (e.g. power outages), telecommunications (e.g. Internet outage), healthcare, banking, transportation, food supply, water supply and other important services.
• Structural failures or construction accidents

A mechanical hazard is any hazard involving a machine or industrial process. Motor vehicles, aircraft, and air bags pose mechanical hazards. Compressed gases or liquids can also be considered a mechanical hazard. Hazard identification of new machines and/or industrial processes occurs at various stages in the design of the new machine or process. These hazard identification studies focus mainly on deviations from the intended use or design and the harm that may occur as a result of these deviations. These studies are regulated by various agencies such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Engineering hazards occur when human structures fail (e.g. building or structural collapse, bridge failures, dam failures) or the materials used in their construction prove to be hazardous.

Societal hazard

Societal hazards can arise from civil disorders, explosive remnants of war, violence, crowd accidents, financial crises, etc. However, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Hazard Definition & Classification Review (Sendai Framework 2015 - 2030) specifically excludes armed conflict from the anthropogenic hazard category, as these hazards are already recognised under international humanitarian law.

Waste disposal

In managing waste many hazardous materials are put in the domestic and commercial waste stream. In part this is because modern technological living uses certain toxic or poisonous materials in the electronics and chemical industries. Which, when they are in use or transported, are usually safely contained or encapsulated and packaged to avoid any exposure. In the waste stream, the waste products exterior or encapsulation breaks or degrades and there is a release and exposure to hazardous materials into the environment, for people working in the waste disposal industry, those living around sites used for waste disposal or landfill and the general environment surrounding such sites.

Socionatural hazard

There are different ways to group hazards by origin. The definition by UNDRR states: "Hazards may be natural, anthropogenic or socionatural in origin." The socionatural hazards are those that are "associated with a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including environmental degradation and climate change".

Climate hazard

See also: Effects of climate change

The term climate hazard or climatic hazard is used in the context of climate change, for example in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. These are hazards that stem from climate-related events such as wildfires, floods, droughts, sea level rise.

Climate hazards in the context of water include: Increased temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns between the wet and dry season (increased rainfall variability) and sea level rise. The reason why increasing temperatures is listed here as a climate hazard is because "warming temperatures may result in higher evapotranspiration, in turn leading to drier soils".

Waterborne diseases are also connected to climate hazards.

Climate hazards can combine with other hazards and result in compound event losses (see also loss and damage). For example, the climate hazard of heat can combine with the hazard of poor air quality. Or the climate hazard flooding can combine with poor water quality.

Climate scientists have pointed out that climate hazards affect different groups of people differently, depending on their climate change vulnerability: There are "factors that make people and groups vulnerable (e.g., poverty, uneven power structures, disadvantage and discrimination due to, for example, social location and the intersectionality or the overlapping and compounding risks from ethnicity or racial discrimination, gender, age, or disability, etc.)".

By physical nature

Biological hazard

Main article: Biological hazard

Biological hazards, also known as biohazards, originate in biological processes of living organisms and pose threats to the health of humans, the security of property, or the environment.

Biological hazards include pathogenic microorganisms, such as viruses and bacteria, epidemics, pandemics, parasites, pests, animal attacks, venomous animals, biological toxins and foodborne illnesses.

For example, naturally occurring bacteria such as Escherichia coli and Salmonella are well known pathogens, and a variety of measures have been taken to limit human exposure to these microorganisms through food safety, good personal hygiene, and education. The potential for new biological hazards also exists through the discovery of new microorganisms and the development of new genetically modified (GM) organisms. The use of new GM organisms is regulated by various governmental agencies. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) controls GM plants that produce or resist pesticides (i.e. Bt corn and Roundup ready crops). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates GM plants that will be used as food or for medicinal purposes.

Biological hazards can include medical waste or samples of a microorganism, virus or toxin (from a biological source) that can affect health. Many biological hazards are associated with food, including certain viruses, parasites, fungi, bacteria, and plant and seafood toxins. Pathogenic Campylobacter and Salmonella are common foodborne biological hazards. The hazards from these bacteria can be avoided through risk mitigation steps such as proper handling, storing, and cooking of food. Diseases can be enhanced by human factors such as poor sanitation or by processes such as urbanization.

Chemical hazard

Main article: Chemical hazard

A chemical can be considered a hazardous material if by its intrinsic properties it can cause harm or danger to humans, property, or the environment. Health hazards associated with chemicals are dependent on the dose or amount of exposure to the chemical. For example, iodine in the form of potassium iodate is used to produce iodised salt. When applied at a rate of 20  mg of potassium iodate per 1000 mg of table salt, the chemical is beneficial in preventing goitre, while iodine intakes of 1200–9500  mg in one dose has been known to cause death. Some chemicals have a cumulative biological effect, while others are metabolically eliminated over time. Other chemical hazards may depend on concentration or cumulative quantity for their effects.

Some harmful chemicals occur naturally in certain geological formations, such as arsenic. Other chemicals include products with commercial uses, such as agricultural and industrial chemicals, as well as products developed for home use.

A variety of chemical hazards have been identified. However, every year companies produce more new chemicals to fill new needs or to take the place of older, less effective chemicals. Laws, such as the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act in the US, require protection of human health and the environment for any new chemical introduced. In the US, the EPA regulates new chemicals that may have environmental impacts (i.e., pesticides or chemicals released during a manufacturing process), while the FDA regulates new chemicals used in foods or as drugs. The potential hazards of these chemicals can be identified by performing a variety of tests before the authorization of usage. The number of tests required and the extent to which the chemicals are tested varies, depending on the desired usage of the chemical. Chemicals designed as new drugs must undergo more rigorous tests than those used as pesticides.

Pesticides, which are normally used to control unwanted insects and plants, may cause a variety of negative effects on non-target organisms. DDT can build up, or bioaccumulate, in birds, resulting in thinner-than-normal eggshells, which can break in the nest. The organochlorine pesticide dieldrin has been linked to Parkinson's disease. Corrosive chemicals like sulfuric acid, which is found in car batteries and research laboratories, can cause severe skin burns. Many other chemicals used in industrial and laboratory settings can cause respiratory, digestive, or nervous system problems if they are inhaled, ingested, or absorbed through the skin. The negative effects of other chemicals, such as alcohol and nicotine, have been well documented.

Organohalogens are a family of synthetic organic molecules which all contain atoms of one of the halogens. Such materials include PCBs, dioxins, DDT, Freon and many others. Although considered harmless when first produced, many of these compounds are now known to have profound physiological effects on many organisms including man. Many are also fat soluble and become concentrated through the food chain.

Radioactive or electromagnetic hazard

See also: Electromagnetic radiation and health

Radioactive materials produce ionizing radiation which may be very harmful to living organisms. Damage from even a short exposure to radioactivity may have long-term adverse health consequences.

Thermal or fire hazard

See also: Occupational heat stress

Fire hazard

Further information: Fire safety § Common fire hazards

An active flame front of the Zaca Fire

Threats to fire safety are commonly referred to as fire hazards. A fire hazard may include a situation that increases the likelihood of a fire or may impede escape in the event a fire occurs.

Casualties resulting from fires, regardless of their source or initial cause, can be aggravated by inadequate emergency preparedness. Such hazards as a lack of accessible emergency exits, poorly marked escape routes, or improperly maintained fire extinguishers or sprinkler systems may result in many more deaths and injuries than might occur with such protections.

Kinetic hazard

Kinetic energy is involved in hazards associated with noise, falling, or vibration.

By type of damage

Health hazard

GHS hazard pictograms for health hazards.

See also: Disease and Injury

Hazards that would affect the health of exposed persons, usually having an acute or chronic illness as the consequence. Fatality would not normally be an immediate consequence. Health hazards may cause measurable changes in the body which are generally indicated by the development of signs and symptoms in the exposed persons, or non-measurable, subjective symptoms.

Ergonomic hazard

Main article: Ergonomic hazard

Ergonomic hazards are physical conditions that may pose a risk of injury to the musculoskeletal system, such as the muscles or ligaments of the lower back, tendons or nerves of the hands/wrists, or bones surrounding the knees. Ergonomic hazards include things such as awkward or extreme postures, whole-body or hand/arm vibration, poorly designed tools, equipment, or workstations, repetitive motion, and poor lighting. Ergonomic hazards occur in both occupational and non-occupational settings such as in workshops, building sites, offices, home, school, or public spaces and facilities.

Occupational hazard

See also: Control banding and Occupational exposure banding

Construction workers at height without appropriate safety equipment

An occupational hazard is a hazard experienced in the workplace. This encompasses many types of hazards, including chemical hazards, biological hazards (biohazards), psychosocial hazards, and physical hazards. In the United States, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conduct workplace investigations and research addressing workplace health and safety hazards resulting in guidelines. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) establishes enforceable standards to prevent workplace injuries and illnesses. In the EU, a similar role is taken by EU-OSHA.

Psychosocial hazard

Main article: Psychosocial hazard

Psychological or psychosocial hazards are hazards that affect the psychological well-being of people, including their ability to participate in a work environment among other people. Psychosocial hazards are related to the way work is designed, organized, and managed, as well as the economic and social contexts of work, and are associated with psychiatric, psychological, and/or physical injury or illness. Linked to psychosocial risks are issues such as occupational stress and workplace violence, which are recognized internationally as major challenges to occupational health and safety.

Environmental hazard

The international pictogram for environmentally hazardous materials.

There are two widely used meanings for environmental hazards; one is that they are hazards to the natural environment (biomes or ecosystems), and the other is hazards of an environment that are normally present in the specific environment and are dangerous to people present in that environment.

Well known examples of hazards to the environment include potential oil spills, water pollution, slash and burn deforestation, air pollution, ground fissures, and build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide. They may apply to a particular part of the environment (slash and burn deforestation) or to the environment as a whole (carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere)..

Similarly, a hazard of an environment may be inherent in the whole of that environment, like a drowning hazard is inherent to the general underwater environment, or localised, like potential shark attack is a hazard of those parts of the ocean where sharks that are likely to attack people are likely to exist.

An active volcano may be a hazard to the environment, whether natural or artificial, and at the same time a hazard in and of the environment.

Property

See also: Property insurance and Property crime

Cultural property

Cultural property can be damaged, lost or destroyed by different events or processes, including war, vandalism, theft, looting, transport accident, water leak, human error, natural disaster, fire, pests, pollution and progressive deterioration.

By status

Hazards are sometimes classified into three modes or statuses:

• Dormant—The situation environment is currently affected. For instance, a hillside may be unstable, with the potential for a landslide, but there is nothing below or on the hillside that could be affected.
• Armed—People, property, or environment are in potential harm's way.
• Active—A harmful incident involving the hazard has actually occurred. Often this is referred to not as an "active hazard" but as an accident, emergency, incident, or disaster.

Analysis and management

Hierarchy of hazard controls: Those hazard control methods at the top of the graphic are potentially more effective and protective than those at the bottom. Following this hierarchy of controls normally leads to the implementation of inherently safer systems, where the risk of illness or injury has been substantially reduced.

A range of methodologies are used to assess hazards and to manage them:

• Hazard analysis – Method for assessing risk
• Hazard analysis and critical control points – Systematic preventive approach to food safety (HACCP)
• Hazard and operability study – Study of risks in a plan or operation (HAZOP)
• Hierarchy of hazard controls – System used in industry to eliminate or minimize exposure to hazards

Hazard symbol

Skull and crossbones, a common symbol for poison and other sources of lethal danger (GHS hazard pictograms)

Hazard symbols are universally recognized symbols designed to alert individuals to the presence of hazardous or dangerous materials, locations, or conditions. These include risks associated with electromagnetic fields, electric currents, toxic chemicals, explosive substances, and radioactive materials. Their design and use are often governed by laws and standards organizations to ensure clarity and consistency. Hazard symbols may vary in color, background, borders, or accompanying text to indicate specific dangers and levels of risk, such as toxicity classes. These symbols provide a quick, universally understandable visual warning that transcends language barriers, making them more effective than text-based warnings in many situations.

Earth's energy budget

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget

Earth's energy balance and imbalance, showing where the excess energy goes: Outgoing radiation is decreasing owing to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to Earth's energy imbalance of about 460 TW. The percentage going into each domain of the climate system is also indicated.

Earth's energy budget (or Earth's energy balance) is the balance between the energy that Earth receives from the Sun and the energy the Earth loses back into outer space. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also takes into account how energy moves through the climate system. The Sun heats the equatorial tropics more than the polar regions. Therefore, the amount of solar irradiance received by a certain region is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's water, ice, atmosphere, rocky crust, and all living things. The result is Earth's climate.

Earth's energy budget depends on many factors, such as atmospheric aerosols, greenhouse gases, surface albedo, clouds, and land use patterns. When the incoming and outgoing energy fluxes are in balance, Earth is in radiative equilibrium and the climate system will be relatively stable. Global warming occurs when earth receives more energy than it gives back to space, and global cooling takes place when the outgoing energy is greater.

Multiple types of measurements and observations show a warming imbalance since at least year 1970. The rate of heating from this human-caused event is without precedent. The main origin of changes in the Earth's energy is from human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere. During 2005 to 2019 the Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) averaged about 460 TW or globally 0.90±0.15 W/m².

It takes time for any changes in the energy budget to result in any significant changes in the global surface temperature. This is due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, land and cryosphere. Most climate models make accurate calculations of this inertia, energy flows and storage amounts.

Definition

Earth's energy budget includes the "major energy flows of relevance for the climate system". These are "the top-of-atmosphere energy budget; the surface energy budget; changes in the global energy inventory and internal flows of energy within the climate system".

Earth's energy flows

In spite of the enormous transfers of energy into and from the Earth, it maintains a relatively constant temperature because, as a whole, there is little net gain or loss: Earth emits via atmospheric and terrestrial radiation (shifted to longer electromagnetic wavelengths) to space about the same amount of energy as it receives via solar insolation (all forms of electromagnetic radiation).

The main origin of changes in the Earth's energy is from human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere, amounting to about 460 TW or globally 0.90±0.15 W/m².

Incoming solar energy (shortwave radiation)

Main article: Solar irradiance

The total amount of energy received per second at the top of Earth's atmosphere (TOA) is measured in watts and is given by the solar constant times the cross-sectional area of the Earth corresponded to the radiation. Because the surface area of a sphere is four times the cross-sectional area of a sphere (i.e. the area of a circle), the globally and yearly averaged TOA flux is one quarter of the solar constant and so is approximately 340 watts per square meter (W/m²). Since the absorption varies with location as well as with diurnal, seasonal and annual variations, the numbers quoted are multi-year averages obtained from multiple satellite measurements.

Of the ~340 W/m² of solar radiation received by the Earth, an average of ~77 W/m² is reflected back to space by clouds and the atmosphere and ~23 W/m² is reflected by the surface albedo, leaving ~240 W/m² of solar energy input to the Earth's energy budget. This amount is called the absorbed solar radiation (ASR). It implies a value of about 0.3 for the mean net albedo of Earth, also called its Bond albedo (A):

${\displaystyle ASR=(1-A)\times 340\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}\simeq 240\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}.}$

Outgoing longwave radiation

Main articles: Outgoing longwave radiation and Greenhouse effect

Energy leaves the planet in the form of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Longwave radiation is electromagnetic thermal radiation emitted by Earth's surface and atmosphere. Longwave radiation is in the infrared band, but the terms are not synonymous, as infrared radiation can be either shortwave or longwave. Sunlight contains significant amounts of shortwave infrared radiation. A threshold wavelength of 4 microns is sometimes used to distinguish longwave and shortwave radiation.

Generally, absorbed solar energy is converted to different forms of heat energy. Some of the solar energy absorbed by the surface is converted to thermal radiation at wavelengths in the "atmospheric window"; this radiation is able to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded and directly escape to space, contributing to OLR. The remainder of absorbed solar energy is transported upwards through the atmosphere through a variety of heat transfer mechanisms, until some of that energy is also able to escape to space, again contributing to OLR. For example, heat is transported into the atmosphere via evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes or conduction/convection processes, as well as via radiative heat transport. Ultimately, all outgoing energy is radiated into space in the form of longwave radiation.

The transport of longwave radiation from Earth's surface through its multi-layered atmosphere is governed by radiative transfer equations such as Schwarzschild's equation for radiative transfer (or more complex equations if scattering is present) and obeys Kirchhoff's law of thermal radiation.

A one-layer model produces an approximate description of OLR which yields temperatures at the surface (T_s=288 Kelvin) and at the middle of the troposphere (T_a=242 K) that are close to observed average values:

${\displaystyle OLR\simeq ϵ\sigma T_{\text{a}}^4+(1-ϵ)\sigma T_{\text{s}}^4.}$

In this expression σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant and ε represents the emissivity of the atmosphere, which is less than 1 because the atmosphere does not emit within the wavelength range known as the atmospheric window.

Aerosols, clouds, water vapor, and trace greenhouse gases contribute to an effective value of about ε = 0.78. The strong (fourth-power) temperature sensitivity maintains a near-balance of the outgoing energy flow to the incoming flow via small changes in the planet's absolute temperatures.

Increase in the Earth's non-cloud greenhouse effect (2000–2022) based on satellite data

As viewed from Earth's surrounding space, greenhouse gases influence the planet's atmospheric emissivity (ε). Changes in atmospheric composition can thus shift the overall radiation balance. For example, an increase in heat trapping by a growing concentration of greenhouse gases (i.e. an enhanced greenhouse effect) forces a decrease in OLR and a warming (restorative) energy imbalance. Ultimately when the amount of greenhouse gases increases or decreases, in-situ surface temperatures rise or fall until the absorbed solar radiation equals the outgoing longwave radiation, or ASR equals OLR.

Earth's internal heat sources and other minor effects

See also: Earth's internal heat budget and Anthropogenic heat

The geothermal heat flow from the Earth's interior is estimated to be 47 terawatts (TW) and split approximately equally between radiogenic heat and heat left over from the Earth's formation. This corresponds to an average flux of 0.087 W/m² and represents only 0.027% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface, being dwarfed by the 173000 TW of incoming solar radiation.

Human production of energy is even lower at an average 18 TW, corresponding to an estimated 160,000 TW-hr, for all of year 2019. However, consumption is growing rapidly and energy production with fossil fuels also produces an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to a more than 20 times larger imbalance in the incoming/outgoing flows that originate from solar radiation.

Photosynthesis also has a significant effect: An estimated 140 TW (or around 0.08%) of incident energy gets captured by photosynthesis, giving energy to plants to produce biomass. A similar flow of heat is released over the course of a year when plants are used as food or fuel.

Other minor sources of energy are usually ignored in the calculations, including accretion of interplanetary dust and solar wind, light from stars other than the Sun and the thermal radiation from space. Earlier, Joseph Fourier had claimed that deep space radiation was significant in a paper often cited as the first on the greenhouse effect.

Budget analysis

A Sankey diagram illustrating a balanced example of Earth's energy budget. Line thickness is linearly proportional to relative amount of energy.

In simplest terms, Earth's energy budget is balanced when the incoming flow equals the outgoing flow. Since a portion of incoming energy is directly reflected, the balance can also be stated as absorbed incoming solar (shortwave) radiation equal to outgoing longwave radiation:

${\displaystyle ASR=OLR.}$

Internal flow analysis

To describe some of the internal flows within the budget, let the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (= 340 W/m²), as shown in the accompanying Sankey diagram. Called the albedo of Earth, around 35 units in this example are directly reflected back to space: 27 from the top of clouds, 2 from snow and ice-covered areas, and 6 by other parts of the atmosphere. The 65 remaining units (ASR = 220 W/m²) are absorbed: 14 within the atmosphere and 51 by the Earth's surface.

The 51 units reaching and absorbed by the surface are emitted back to space through various forms of terrestrial energy: 17 directly radiated to space and 34 absorbed by the atmosphere (19 through latent heat of vaporisation, 9 via convection and turbulence, and 6 as absorbed infrared by greenhouse gases). The 48 units absorbed by the atmosphere (34 units from terrestrial energy and 14 from insolation) are then finally radiated back to space. This simplified example neglects some details of mechanisms that recirculate, store, and thus lead to further buildup of heat near the surface.

Ultimately the 65 units (17 from the ground and 48 from the atmosphere) are emitted as OLR. They approximately balance the 65 units (ASR) absorbed from the sun in order to maintain a net-zero gain of energy by Earth.

Heat storage reservoirs

The rising accumulation of energy in the oceanic, land, ice, and atmospheric components of Earth's climate system since 1960

Land, ice, and oceans are active material constituents of Earth's climate system along with the atmosphere. They have far greater mass and heat capacity, and thus much more thermal inertia. When radiation is directly absorbed or the surface temperature changes, energy will flow as sensible heat either into or out of the bulk mass of these components via conduction/convection heat transfer processes. The transformation of water between its solid/liquid/vapor states also acts as a source or sink of potential energy in the form of latent heat. These processes buffer the surface conditions against some of the rapid radiative changes in the atmosphere. As a result, the daytime versus nighttime difference in surface temperatures is relatively small. Likewise, Earth's climate system as a whole shows a slow response to shifts in the atmospheric radiation balance.

The top few meters of Earth's oceans harbor more energy than its entire atmosphere. Like atmospheric gases, fluidic ocean waters transport vast amounts of energy over the planet's surface. Sensible heat also moves into and out of great depths under conditions that favor downwelling or upwelling. Scientists observe these large-scale energy transfers by measuring changes in oceanic enthalpy.

Over 90 percent of the extra energy that has accumulated on Earth from ongoing global warming since 1970 has been stored in the ocean. About one-third has propagated to depths below 700 meters. The overall rate of growth has also risen during recent decades, reaching close to 500 TW (1 W/m²) as of 2020. That led to about 14 zettajoules (ZJ) of heat gain for the year, exceeding the 570 exajoules (=160,000 TW-hr) of total primary energy consumed by humans by a factor of at least 20.

Heating/cooling rate analysis

Generally speaking, changes to Earth's energy flux balance can be thought of as being the result of external forcings (both natural and anthropogenic, radiative and non-radiative), system feedbacks, and internal system variability. Such changes are primarily expressed as observable shifts in temperature (T), clouds (C), water vapor (W), aerosols (A), trace greenhouse gases (G), land/ocean/ice surface reflectance (S), and as minor shifts in insolation (I) among other possible factors. Earth's heating/cooling rate can then be analyzed over selected timeframes (Δt) as the net change in energy (ΔE) associated with these attributes:

${\displaystyle \begin{array}{rl}\mathrm{\Delta }E/\mathrm{\Delta }t& =(\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_T+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_C+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_W+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_A+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_G+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_S+\mathrm{\Delta }{E}_I+...)/\mathrm{\Delta }t\\ \\ & =ASR-OLR.\end{array}}$

Here the term ΔE_T, corresponding to the Planck response, is negative-valued when temperature rises due to its strong direct influence on OLR.

The recent increase in trace greenhouse gases produces an enhanced greenhouse effect, and thus a positive ΔE_G forcing term. By contrast, a large volcanic eruption (e.g. Mount Pinatubo 1991, El Chichón 1982) can inject sulfur-containing compounds into the upper atmosphere. High concentrations of stratospheric sulfur aerosols may persist for up to a few years, yielding a negative forcing contribution to ΔE_A. Various other types of anthropogenic aerosol emissions make both positive and negative contributions to ΔE_A. Solar cycles produce ΔE_I smaller in magnitude than those of recent ΔE_G trends from human activity.

Climate forcings are complex since they can produce direct and indirect feedbacks that intensify (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the original forcing. These often follow the temperature response. Water vapor trends as a positive feedback with respect to temperature changes due to evaporation shifts and the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. An increase in water vapor results in positive ΔE_W due to further enhancement of the greenhouse effect. A slower positive feedback is the ice-albedo feedback. For example, the loss of Arctic ice due to rising temperatures makes the region less reflective, leading to greater absorption of energy and even faster ice melt rates, thus positive influence on ΔE_S. Collectively, feedbacks excluding the Planck response tend to amplify global warming or cooling.

Clouds are responsible for about half of Earth's albedo and are powerful expressions of internal variability of the climate system. They may also act as feedbacks to forcings, and could be forcings themselves if for example a result of cloud seeding activity. Contributions to ΔE_C vary regionally and depending upon cloud type. Measurements from satellites are gathered in concert with simulations from models in an effort to improve understanding and reduce uncertainty.

Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)

See also: Radiative forcing

Earth's energy budget (in W/m²) determines the climate. It is the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation and can be measured by satellites. The Earth's energy imbalance is the "net absorbed" energy amount.

Earth's energy imbalance has increased in the 21st century, reaching values twice that of prior estimates from the IPCC. The ability to observe this imbalance is deteriorating because satellites are being decommissioned.

The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is defined as "the persistent and positive (downward) net top of atmosphere energy flux associated with greenhouse gas forcing of the climate system".

If Earth's incoming energy flux (ASR) is larger or smaller than the outgoing energy flux (OLR), then the planet will gain (warm) or lose (cool) net heat energy in accordance with the law of energy conservation:

${\displaystyle EEI\equiv ASR-OLR}$.

Positive EEI thus defines the overall rate of planetary heating and is typically expressed as watts per square meter (W/m²). During 2005 to 2019 the Earth's energy imbalance averaged about 460 TW or globally 0.90 ± 0.15 W per m².

When Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) shifts by a sufficiently large amount, the shift is measurable by orbiting satellite-based instruments. Imbalances that fail to reverse over time will also drive long-term temperature changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, land, and ice components of the climate system. Temperature, sea level, ice mass and related shifts thus also provide measures of EEI.

The biggest changes in EEI arise from changes in the composition of the atmosphere through human activities, thereby interfering with the natural flow of energy through the climate system. The main changes are from increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, that produce heating (positive EEI), and pollution. The latter refers to atmospheric aerosols of various kinds, some of which absorb energy while others reflect energy and produce cooling (or lower EEI).  

Estimates of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)

Time Period	EEI (W/m2) Square brackets show 90% confidence intervals
1971–2006	0.50 [0.31 to 0.68]
1971–2018	0.57 [0.43 to 0.72]
1977–2024	0.68 [0.52 to 0.85]
2006–2018	0.79 [0.52 to 1.07]
2012–2024	0.99 [0.70 to 1.28]

It is not (yet) possible to measure the absolute magnitude of EEI directly at top of atmosphere, although changes over time as observed by satellite-based instruments are thought to be accurate. The only practical way to estimate the absolute magnitude of EEI is through an inventory of the changes in energy in the climate system. The biggest of these energy reservoirs is the ocean.

Energy inventory assessments

The planetary heat content that resides in the climate system can be compiled given the heat capacity, density and temperature distributions of each of its components. Most regions are now reasonably well sampled and monitored, with the most significant exception being the deep ocean.

Schematic drawing of Earth's excess heat inventory and energy imbalance for two recent time periods

Estimates of the absolute magnitude of EEI have likewise been calculated using the measured temperature changes during recent multi-decadal time intervals. For the 2006 to 2020 period EEI was about +0.76±0.2 W/m² and showed a significant increase above the mean of +0.48±0.1 W/m² for the 1971 to 2020 period.

EEI has been positive because temperatures have increased almost everywhere for over 50 years. Global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging temperatures measured at the surface of the sea along with air temperatures measured over land. Reliable data extending to at least 1880 shows that GST has undergone a steady increase of about 0.18 °C per decade since about year 1970.

Ocean waters are especially effective absorbents of solar energy and have a far greater total heat capacity than the atmosphere. Research vessels and stations have sampled sea temperatures at depth and around the globe since before 1960. Additionally, after the year 2000, an expanding network of nearly 4000 Argo robotic floats has measured the temperature anomaly, or equivalently the ocean heat content change (ΔOHC). Since at least 1990, OHC has increased at a steady or accelerating rate. ΔOHC represents the largest portion of EEI since oceans have thus far taken up over 90% of the net excess energy entering the system over time (Δt):

${\displaystyle EEI\gtrsim \mathrm{\Delta }OHC/\mathrm{\Delta }t}$.

Earth's outer crust and thick ice-covered regions have taken up relatively little of the excess energy. This is because excess heat at their surfaces flows inward only by means of thermal conduction, and thus penetrates only several tens of centimeters on the daily cycle and only several tens of meters on the annual cycle. Much of the heat uptake goes either into melting ice and permafrost or into evaporating more water from soils.

Measurements at top of atmosphere (TOA)

Several satellites measure the energy absorbed and radiated by Earth, and thus by inference the energy imbalance. These are located top of atmosphere (TOA) and provide data covering the globe. The NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) project involved three such satellites: the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), launched October 1984; NOAA-9, launched December 1984; and NOAA-10, launched September 1986.

The growth in Earth's energy imbalance from satellite and in situ measurements (2005–2019). A rate of +1.0 W/m² summed over the planet's surface equates to a continuous heat uptake of about 500 terawatts (~0.3% of the incident solar radiation).

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments are part of its Earth Observing System (EOS) since March 2000. CERES is designed to measure both solar-reflected (short wavelength) and Earth-emitted (long wavelength) radiation. The CERES data showed increases in EEI from +0.42±0.48 W/m² in 2005 to +1.12±0.48 W/m² in 2019. Contributing factors included more water vapor, less clouds, increasing greenhouse gases, and declining ice that were partially offset by rising temperatures. Subsequent investigation of the behavior using the GFDL CM4/AM4 climate model concluded there was a less than 1% chance that internal climate variability alone caused the trend.

Other researchers have used data from CERES, AIRS, CloudSat, and other EOS instruments to look for trends of radiative forcing embedded within the EEI data. Their analysis showed a forcing rise of +0.53±0.11 W/m² from years 2003 to 2018. About 80% of the increase was associated with the rising concentration of greenhouse gases which reduced the outgoing longwave radiation.

Further satellite measurements including TRMM and CALIPSO data have indicated additional precipitation, which is sustained by increased energy leaving the surface through evaporation (the latent heat flux), offsetting some of the increase in the longwave greenhouse flux to the surface.

It is noteworthy that radiometric calibration uncertainties limit the capability of the current generation of satellite-based instruments, which are otherwise stable and precise. As a result, relative changes in EEI are quantifiable with an accuracy which is not also achievable for any single measurement of the absolute imbalance.

Geodetic and hydrographic surveys

See also: Geodesy

Earth heating estimates from a combination of space altimetry and space gravimetry

Observations since 1994 show that ice has retreated from every part of Earth at an accelerating rate. Mean global sea level has likewise risen as a consequence of the ice melt in combination with the overall rise in ocean temperatures. These shifts have contributed measurable changes to the geometric shape and gravity of the planet.

Changes to the mass distribution of water within the hydrosphere and cryosphere have been deduced using gravimetric observations by the GRACE satellite instruments. These data have been compared against ocean surface topography and further hydrographic observations using computational models that account for thermal expansion, salinity changes, and other factors. Estimates thereby obtained for ΔOHC and EEI have agreed with the other (mostly) independent assessments within uncertainties.

Importance as a climate change metric

Climate scientists Kevin Trenberth, James Hansen, and colleagues have identified the monitoring of Earth's energy imbalance as an important metric to help policymakers guide the pace for mitigation and adaptation measures. Because of climate system inertia, longer-term EEI (Earth's energy imbalance) trends can forecast further changes that are "in the pipeline".

Scientists found that the EEI is the most important metric related to climate change. It is the net result of all the processes and feedbacks in play in the climate system. Knowing how much extra energy affects weather systems and rainfall is vital to understand the increasing weather extremes.

In 2012, NASA scientists reported that to stop global warming atmospheric CO₂ concentration would have to be reduced to 350 ppm or less, assuming all other climate forcings were fixed. As of 2020, atmospheric CO₂ reached 415 ppm and all long-lived greenhouse gases exceeded a 500 ppm CO₂-equivalent concentration due to continued growth in human emissions.