Radiative forcing

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing 

The assessment of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity shows which physical parameters are contributing to temperature changes. Parameters shown with orange bars lead to a temperature increase (due to positive radiative forcings), whereas parameters shown with blue bars lead to a temperature decrease (due to negative radiative forcing).

Radiative forcing (or climate forcing) is a concept used to quantify a change to the balance of energy flowing through a planetary atmosphere. Various factors contribute to this change in energy balance, such as concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and changes in surface albedo and solar irradiance. In more technical terms, it is defined as "the change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W/m²) due to a change in an external driver of climate change." These external drivers are distinguished from feedbacks and variability that are internal to the climate system, and that further influence the direction and magnitude of imbalance. Radiative forcing on Earth is meaningfully evaluated at the tropopause and at the stratopause. It is quantified in units of watts per square meter, and often summarized as an average over the total surface area of the globe.

A planet in radiative equilibrium with its parent star and the rest of space can be characterized by net zero radiative forcing and by a planetary equilibrium temperature.

Radiative forcing is not a thing in the sense that a single instrument can independently measure it. Rather it is a scientific concept and entity whose strength can be estimated from more fundamental physics principles. Scientists use measurements of changes in atmospheric parameters to calculate the radiative forcing.

The IPCC summarized the current scientific consensus about radiative forcing changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations".

The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For carbon dioxide, the 50% increase (C/C₀ = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +2.17 W/m². Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (C/C₀ = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (ΔF) of +3.71 W/m².

Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time. The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution. Carbon dioxide has the biggest impact on total forcing, while methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play smaller roles as time goes on. The five major greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone) account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gas increases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by the 15 minor halogenated gases.

Definition and fundamentals

Radiative forcing is defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report as follows: "The change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W/m²) due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun."

There are some different types of radiative forcing as defined in the literature:

• Stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing: "when all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium."
• Instantaneous radiative forcing: "if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for".
• Effective radiative forcing: "once both stratospheric and tropospheric adjustments are accounted for".

The radiation balance of the Earth (i.e. the balance between absorbed and radiated energy) determines the average global temperature. This balance is also called Earth's energy balance. Changes to this balance occur due to factors such as the intensity of solar energy, reflectivity of clouds or gases, absorption by various greenhouse gases or surfaces and heat emission by various materials. Any such alteration is a radiative forcing, which along with its climate feedbacks, ultimately changes the balance. This happens continuously as sunlight hits the surface of Earth, clouds and aerosols form, the concentrations of atmospheric gases vary and seasons alter the groundcover.

Positive radiative forcing means Earth receives more incoming energy from sunlight than it radiates to space. This net gain of energy will cause global warming. Conversely, negative radiative forcing means that Earth loses more energy to space than it receives from the Sun, which produces cooling (global dimming).

History

Transport of energy and matter in the Earth-atmosphere system is governed by the principles of equilibrium thermodynamics and more generally non-equilibrium thermodynamics. During the first half of the 20th century, physicists developed a comprehensive description of radiative transfer that they began to apply to stellar and planetary atmospheres in radiative equilibrium. Studies of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) followed and matured through the 1960s and 1970s. RCE models began to account for more complex material flows within the energy balance, such as those from a water cycle, and thereby described observations better.

Another application of equilibrium models is that a perturbation in the form of an externally imposed intervention can estimate a change in state. The RCE work distilled this into a forcing-feedback framework for change, and produced climate sensitivity results agreeing with those from GCMs. This conceptual framework asserts that a homogeneous disturbance (effectively imposed onto the top-of-atmosphere energy balance) will be met by slower responses (correlated more or less with changes in a planet's surface temperature) to bring the system to a new equilibrium state. Radiative forcing was a term used to describe these disturbances and gained widespread traction in the literature by the 1980s.

Related metrics

The concept of radiative forcing has been evolving from the initial proposal, named nowadays instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF), to other proposals that aim to relate better the radiative imbalance with global warming (global surface mean temperature). For example, researchers explained in 2003 how the adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing can be used in general circulation models.

The adjusted radiative forcing, in its different calculation methodologies, estimates the imbalance once the stratosphere temperatures has been modified to achieve a radiative equilibrium in the stratosphere (in the sense of zero radiative heating rates). This new methodology is not estimating any adjustment or feedback that could be produced on the troposphere (in addition to stratospheric temperature adjustments), for that goal another definition, named effective radiative forcing has been introduced. In general the ERF is the recommendation of the CMIP6 radiative forcing analysis although the stratospherically adjusted methodologies are still being applied in those cases where the adjustments and feedbacks on the troposphere are considered not critical, like in the well mixed greenhouse gases and ozone. A methodology named radiative kernel approach allows to estimate the climate feedbacks within an offline calculation based on a linear approximation

Uses

An assessment of effective radiative forcings in 2022 using a baseline year of 1750.

Climate change attribution

Main article: Causes of climate change

Radiative forcing is used to quantify the strengths of different natural and man-made drivers of Earth's energy imbalance over time. The detailed physical mechanisms by which these drivers cause the planet to warm or cool are varied. Radiative forcing allows the contribution of any one driver to be compared against others.

Another metric called effective radiative forcing or ERF removes the effect of rapid adjustments (so-called "fast feedbacks") within the atmosphere that are unrelated to longer term surface temperature responses. ERF means that climate change drivers can be placed onto a more level playing field to enable comparison of their effects and a more consistent view of how global surface temperature responds to various types of human forcing.

Climate sensitivity

Main article: Climate sensitivity

Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks can be used together to estimate a subsequent change in steady-state (often denoted "equilibrium") surface temperature (ΔT_s) via the equation:

${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }{T}_s=\tilde{\lambda }\mathrm{\Delta }F}$

where ${\displaystyle \tilde{\lambda }}$ commonly denotes the climate sensitivity parameter, usually with units K/(W/m²), and ΔF is the radiative forcing in W/m². An estimate for ${\displaystyle \tilde{\lambda }}$ is obtained from the inverse of the climate feedback parameter ${\displaystyle \lambda }$ having units (W/m²)/K. An estimated value of ${\displaystyle \tilde{\lambda }\approx 0.8}$ gives an increase in global temperature of about 1.6 K above the 1750 reference temperature due to the increase in CO₂ over that time (278 to 405 ppm, for a forcing of 2.0 W/m²), and predicts a further warming of 1.4 K above present temperatures if the CO₂ mixing ratio in the atmosphere were to become double its pre-industrial value. Both of these calculations assume no other forcings.

Historically, radiative forcing displays the best predictive capacity for specific types of forcing such as greenhouse gases. It is less effective for other anthropogenic influences like soot.

Calculations and measurements

Atmospheric observation

See also: Earth's energy imbalance

Earth's global radiation balance fluctuates as the planet rotates and orbits the Sun, and as global-scale thermal anomalies arise and dissipate within the terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric systems (e.g. ENSO). Consequently, the planet's 'instantaneous radiative forcing' (IRF) is also dynamic and naturally fluctuates between states of overall warming and cooling. The combination of periodic and complex processes that give rise to these natural variations will typically revert over periods lasting as long as a few years to produce a net-zero average IRF. Such fluctuations also mask the longer-term (decade-long) forcing trends due to human activities, and thus make direct observation of such trends challenging.

NASA Earth Science Division Operating Missions

Earth's radiation balance has been continuously monitored by NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments since year 1998. Each scan of the globe provides an estimate of the total (all-sky) instantaneous radiation balance. This data record captures both the natural fluctuations and human influences on IRF; including changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land surface, etc. The record also includes the lagging radiative responses to the radiative imbalances; occurring mainly by way of Earth system feedbacks in temperature, surface albedo, atmospheric water vapor and clouds.

Researchers have used measurements from CERES, AIRS, CloudSat and other satellite-based instruments within NASA's Earth Observing System to parse out contributions by the natural fluctuations and system feedbacks. Removing these contributions within the multi-year data record allows observation of the anthropogenic trend in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) IRF. The data analysis has also been done in a way that is computationally efficient and independent of most related modelling methods and results. Radiative forcing was thus directly observed to have risen by +0.53 W m⁻² (±0.11 W m⁻²) from years 2003 to 2018. About 20% of the increase was associated with a reduction in the atmospheric aerosol burden, and most of the remaining 80% was attributed to the rising burden of greenhouse gases.

A rising trend in the radiative imbalance due to increasing global CO₂ has been previously observed by ground-based instruments. For example, such measurements have been separately gathered under clear-sky conditions at two Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Alaska. Each direct observation found that the associated radiative (infrared) heating experienced by surface dwellers rose by +0.2 W m⁻² (±0.07 W m⁻²) during the decade ending 2010. In addition to its focus on longwave radiation and the most influential forcing gas (CO₂) only, this result is proportionally less than the TOA forcing due to its buffering by atmospheric absorption.

Basic estimates

Radiative forcing can be evaluated for its dependence on different factors which are external to the climate system. Basic estimates summarized in the following sections have been derived (assembled) in accordance with first principles of the physics of matter and energy. Forcings (ΔF) are expressed as changes over the total surface of the planet and over a specified time interval. Estimates may be significant in the context of global climate forcing for times spanning decades or longer. Gas forcing estimates presented in the IPCC's AR6 report have been adjusted to include so-called "fast" feedbacks (positive or negative) which occur via atmospheric responses (i.e. effective radiative forcing).

Forcing due to changes in atmospheric gases

See also: Greenhouse gas § Radiative forcing

Hansen et al. (2025) wrote that the IPCC had underestimated aerosols' cooling effect, causing it to also underestimate climate sensitivity (Earth's responsiveness to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations). In what Hansen called a Faustian bargain, regulation of aerosols improved air quality, but aerosols' cooling effect became inadequate to temper the increasing warming effect of greenhouse gases—explaining unexpectedly large global warming in 2023–2024.

For a well-mixed greenhouse gas, radiative transfer codes that examine each spectral line for atmospheric conditions can be used to calculate the forcing ΔF as a function of a change in its concentration. These calculations may be simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific to that gas.

Carbon dioxide

Radiative forcing for doubling CO₂, as calculated by radiative transfer code Modtran. Red lines are Planck curves.

A simplified first-order approximation expression for carbon dioxide (CO₂) is:

${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }F=5.35\times \ln \frac{(C_0+\mathrm{\Delta }C)}{C_0}(\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2})}$,

where C₀ is a reference concentration in parts per million (ppm) by volume and ΔC is the concentration change in ppm. For the purpose of some studies (e.g. climate sensitivity), C₀ is taken as the concentration prior to substantial anthropogenic changes and has a value of 278 ppm as estimated for the year 1750.

CO₂ forcing (est. 10-yr changes)

	Baseline concentration, C0	Concentration change, ΔC	Radiative forcing change, ΔF (W m−2)
1979–1989	336.8	+16.0	+0.248
1989–1999	352.8	+15.0	+0.222
1999–2009	367.8	+18.7	+0.266
2009–2019	386.5	+23.6	+0.316

The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activity has grown especially rapidly during the last several decades (since about year 1950). For carbon dioxide, the 50% increase (C/C₀ = 1.5) realized as of year 2020 since 1750 corresponds to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +2.17 W/m². Assuming no change in the emissions growth path, a doubling of concentrations (C/C₀ = 2) within the next several decades would correspond to a cumulative radiative forcing change (delta F) of +3.71 W/m².

The relationship between CO₂ and radiative forcing is logarithmic at concentrations up to around eight times the current value. Constant concentration increases thus have a progressively smaller warming effect. However, the first-order approximation is inaccurate at higher concentrations and there is no saturation in the absorption of infrared radiation by CO₂. Various mechanism behind the logarithmic scaling has been proposed but the spectrum distribution of the carbon dioxide seems to be essential, particularly a broadening in the relevant 15-μm band coming from a Fermi resonance present in the molecule.

Other trace gases

Somewhat different formulae apply for other trace greenhouse gases such as methane and N
₂O (square-root dependence) or CFCs (linear), with coefficients that may be found for example in the IPCC reports. A 2016 study suggests a significant revision to the methane IPCC formula. Forcings by the most influential trace gases in Earth's atmosphere are included in the section describing recent growth trends, and in the IPCC list of greenhouse gases.

Water vapor

Water vapor is Earth's primary greenhouse gas currently responsible for about half of all atmospheric gas forcing. Its overall atmospheric concentration depends almost entirely on the average planetary temperature, and has the potential to increase by as much as 7% with every degree (°C) of temperature rise (see also: Clausius–Clapeyron relation). Thus over long time scales, water vapor behaves as a system feedback that amplifies the radiative forcing driven by the growth of carbon dioxide and other trace gases.

Forcing due to changes in solar irradiance

Main articles: Solar activity and climate and Solar irradiance

Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI)

The intensity of solar irradiance including all wavelengths is the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and on average is the solar constant. It is equal to about 1361 W m⁻² at the distance of Earth's annual-mean orbital radius of one astronomical unit and as measured at the top of the atmosphere. Earth TSI varies with both solar activity and planetary orbital dynamics. Multiple satellite-based instruments including ERB, ACRIM 1-3, VIRGO, and TIM have continuously measured TSI with improving accuracy and precision since 1978.

Approximating Earth as a sphere, the cross-sectional area exposed to the Sun ($\pi r^2$) is equal to one quarter the area of the planet's surface ($4\pi r^2$). The globally and annually averaged amount of solar irradiance per square meter of Earth's atmospheric surface ($I_0$) is therefore equal to one quarter of TSI, and has a nearly constant value of $I_0=340\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$.

Earth follows an elliptical orbit around the Sun, so that the TSI received at any instant fluctuates between about 1321 W m⁻² (at aphelion in early July) and 1412 W m⁻² (at perihelion in early January), and thus by about ±3.4% over each year. This change in irradiance has minor influences on Earth's seasonal weather patterns and its climate zones, which primarily result from the annual cycling in Earth's relative tilt direction. Such repeating cycles contribute a net-zero forcing (by definition) in the context of decades-long climate changes.

Sunspot activity

Main article: Solar cycle

400 year sunspot history, including the Maunder Minimum

Average annual TSI varies between about 1360 W m⁻² and 1362 W m⁻² (±0.05%) over the course of a typical 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Sunspot observations have been recorded since about year 1600 and show evidence of lengthier oscillations (Gleissberg cycle, Devries/Seuss cycle, etc.) which modulate the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycle). Despite such complex behavior, the amplitude of the 11-year cycle has been the most prominent variation throughout this long-term observation record.

TSI variations associated with sunspots contribute a small but non-zero net forcing in the context of decadal climate changes. Some research suggests they may have partly influenced climate shifts during the Little Ice Age, along with concurrent changes in volcanic activity and deforestation. Since the late 20th century, average TSI has trended slightly lower along with a downward trend in sunspot activity.

Milankovitch shifts

Main articles: Milankovitch cycles, Orbital forcing, and Ice age

Climate forcing caused by variations in solar irradiance have occurred during Milankovitch cycles, which span periods of about 40,000 to 100,000 years. Milankovitch cycles consist of long-duration cycles in Earth's orbital eccentricity (or ellipticity), cycles in its orbital obliquity (or axial tilt), and precession of its relative tilt direction. Among these, the 100,000 year cycle in eccentricity causes TSI to fluctuate by about ±0.2%. Currently, Earth's eccentricity is nearing its least elliptic (most circular) causing average annual TSI to very slowly decrease. Simulations also indicate that Earth's orbital dynamics will remain stable including these variations for least the next 10 million years.

Sun aging

Main articles: Formation and evolution of the Solar System and Sun

The Sun has consumed about half its hydrogen fuel since forming approximately 4.5 billion years ago. TSI will continue to slowly increase during the aging process at a rate of about 1% each 100 million years. Such rate of change is far too small to be detectable within measurements and is insignificant on human timescales.

Total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing summary

TSI forcing (est. 10-yr change)

	Δτ	Radiative forcing change ΔF (W m−2)
Annual cycle	±0.034	0 (net)
Sunspot activity	±5×10−4	±0.1
Orbital shift	−4×10−7	−1×10−4
Sun aging	+1×10−9	+2×10−7

The maximum fractional variations (Δτ) in Earth's solar irradiance during the last decade are summarized in the accompanying table. Each variation previously discussed contributes a forcing of:

${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }F=I_0\times (1-R)\times \mathrm{\Delta }\tau =238\times \mathrm{\Delta }\tau (\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2})}$,

where R=0.30 is Earth's reflectivity. The radiative and climate forcings arising from changes in the Sun's insolation are expected to continue to be minor, notwithstanding some as-of-yet undiscovered solar physics.

Forcing due to changes in albedo and aerosols

See also: Albedo, Cloud albedo, and Particulates § Climate effects

Variations in Earth's albedo

A fraction of incident solar radiation is reflected by clouds and aerosols, oceans and landforms, snow and ice, vegetation, and other natural and man-made surface features. The reflected fraction is known as Earth's bond albedo (R), is evaluated at the top of the atmosphere, and has an average annual global value of about 0.30 (30%). The overall fraction of solar power absorbed by Earth is then (1−R) or 0.70 (70%).

Atmospheric components contribute about three-quarters of Earth albedo, and clouds alone are responsible for half. The major roles of clouds and water vapor are linked with the majority presence of liquid water covering the planet's crust. Global patterns in cloud formation and circulation are highly complex, with couplings to ocean heat flows, and with jet streams assisting their rapid transport. Moreover, the albedos of Earth's northern and southern hemispheres have been observed to be essentially equal (within 0.2%). This is noteworthy since more than two-thirds of land and 85% of the human population are in the north.

Multiple satellite-based instruments including MODIS, VIIRs, and CERES have continuously monitored Earth's albedo since 1998. Landsat imagery, available since 1972, has also been used in some studies. Measurement accuracy has improved and results have converged in recent years, enabling more confident assessment of the recent decadal forcing influence of planetary albedo. Nevertheless, the existing data record is still too short to support longer-term predictions or to address other related questions.

Seasonal variations in planetary albedo can be understood as a set of system feedbacks that occur largely in response to the yearly cycling of Earth's relative tilt direction. Along with the atmospheric responses, most apparent to surface dwellers are the changes in vegetation, snow, and sea-ice coverage. Intra-annual variations of about ±0.02 (± 7%) around Earth's mean albedo have been observed throughout the course of a year, with maxima occurring twice per year near the time of each solar equinox. This repeating cycle contributes net-zero forcing in the context of decades-long climate changes.

Interannual variability

Measured global albedo anomaly from CERES (2000-2011).

Regional albedos change from year to year due to shifts arising from natural processes, human actions, and system feedbacks. For example, human acts of deforestion typically raise Earth's reflectivity while introducing water storage and irrigation to arid lands may lower it. Likewise considering feedbacks, ice loss in arctic regions decreases albedo while expanding desertification at low to middle latitudes increases it.

During years 2000-2012, no overall trend in Earth's albedo was discernible within the 0.1% standard deviation of values measured by CERES. Along with the hemispherical equivalence, some researchers interpret the remarkably small interannual differences as evidence that planetary albedo may currently be constrained by the action of complex system feedbacks. Nevertheless, historical evidence also suggests that infrequent events such as major volcanic eruptions can significantly perturb the planetary albedo for several years or longer.

Albedo forcing summary

Albedo forcing (est. 10-yr change)

	Fractional variations (Δα) in Earth's albedo	Radiative forcing change ΔF (W m−2)
Annual cycle	± 0.07	0 (net)
Interannual variation	± 0.001	∓ 0.1

The measured fractional variations (Δα) in Earth's albedo during the first decade of the 21st century are summarized in the accompanying table. Similar to TSI, the radiative forcing due to a fractional change in planetary albedo (Δα) is:

${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }F=-I_0\times R\times \mathrm{\Delta }\alpha =-102\times \mathrm{\Delta }\alpha (\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2})}$.

Satellite observations show that various Earth system feedbacks have stabilized planetary albedo despite recent natural and human-caused shifts. On longer timescales, it is more uncertain whether the net forcing which results from such external changes will remain minor.

Recent growth trends

Radiative forcing (warming influence) of long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases has nearly doubled since 1979.

 

The industrial era growth in CO2-equivalent gas concentration and AGGI since year 1750.

 

The annual growth in overall gas forcing has held steady near 2% since 1979.

The IPCC summarized the current scientific consensus about radiative forcing changes as follows: "Human-caused radiative forcing of 2.72 [1.96 to 3.48] W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750 has warmed the climate system. This warming is mainly due to increased GHG concentrations, partly reduced by cooling due to increased aerosol concentrations". Radiative forcing can be a useful way to compare the growing warming influence of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases over time.

The radiative forcing of long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases have been increasing in earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution. The table includes the direct forcing contributions from carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH
₄), nitrous oxide (N
₂O); chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 12 and 11; and fifteen other halogenated gases. These data do not include the significant forcing contributions from shorter-lived and less-well-mixed gases or aerosols; including those indirect forcings from the decay of methane and some halogens. They also do not account for changes in land use or solar activity.

The data show that CO₂ dominates the total forcing, with methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) becoming relatively smaller contributors to the total forcing over time. The five major greenhouse gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gas increases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by the 15 minor halogenated gases.

It might be observed that the total forcing for year 2016, 3.027 W m⁻², together with the commonly accepted value of climate sensitivity parameter λ, 0.8 K /(W m⁻²), results in an increase in global temperature of 2.4 K, much greater than the observed increase, about 1.2 K. Part of this difference is due to lag in the global temperature achieving steady state with the forcing. The remainder of the difference is due to negative aerosol forcing (compare climate effects of particulates), climate sensitivity being less than the commonly accepted value, or some combination thereof.

The table also includes an "Annual Greenhouse Gas Index" (AGGI), which is defined as the ratio of the total direct radiative forcing due to long-lived greenhouse gases for any year for which adequate global measurements exist to that which was present in 1990. 1990 was chosen because it is the baseline year for the Kyoto Protocol. This index is a measure of the inter-annual changes in conditions that affect carbon dioxide emission and uptake, methane and nitrous oxide sources and sinks, the decline in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting chemicals related to the Montreal Protocol. and the increase in their substitutes (hydrogenated CFCs (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). Most of this increase is related to CO₂. For 2013, the AGGI was 1.34 (representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 34% since 1990). The increase in CO₂ forcing alone since 1990 was about 46%. The decline in CFCs considerably tempered the increase in net radiative forcing.

An alternative table prepared for use in climate model intercomparisons conducted under the auspices of IPCC and including all forcings, not just those of greenhouse gases.

Climate emergency declaration

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration 

Countries where a climate emergency has been declared, as of December 2020:

  Countries that have declared a climate emergency

  EU countries that had not made their own climate emergency declaration prior to the EU doing so

  Countries where a climate emergency has been declared for a subdivision

A climate emergency declaration is an action taken by governments and scientists to acknowledge humanity is in a climate crisis.

The first such declaration was made by a local government (Darebin, Melbourne) in December 2016. Since then, over 2,100 local governments in 39 countries have made climate emergency declarations as of May 2022. Populations covered by jurisdictions that have declared a climate emergency amount to over 1 billion citizens.

On 29 April 2019, the Welsh Government declared a climate emergency, which was subsequently passed by its parliament, the Senedd, on 1 May 2019, when it became the fourth country in the world to officially declare a climate emergency. On 09 May 2019, the Irish Government and Parliament declared national Climate and Biodiversity Emergency, the first state to do so, following the lead and request of the County Wicklow local community (March 2019) and local authority (April 2019). Although commonly reported in the media as the second state in the world to declare Climate Emergency, after UK, to declare, this is inaccurate, as UK parliament has never ratified the opposition motion declaring emergency.

Once a government makes a declaration, the next step for the declaring government is to set priorities to mitigate climate change, prior to ultimately entering a state of emergency or equivalent. In declaring a climate emergency, a government admits that climate change (or global warming) exists and that the measures taken up to this point are not enough to limit the changes brought by it. The decision stresses the need for the government and administration to devise measures that try to stop human-caused global warming.

The declarations can be made on different levels, for example, at a national or local government level, and they can differ in depth and detail in their guidelines. The term climate emergency does not only describe formal decisions, but also includes actions to avert climate breakdown. This is supposed to justify and focus the governing body towards climate action. The specific term emergency is used to assign priority to the topic, and to generate a mindset of urgency.

The term climate emergency has been promoted by climate activists and pro-climate action politicians to add a sense of urgency for responding to a long-term problem. A United Nations Development Programme survey of public opinion in 50 countries found that sixty-four percent of 1.2 million respondents believe climate change is a global emergency.

Terminology

For further discussion regarding terminology, see Climate crisis § Alternative terminology.

Google Trends data shows a growth in searches for the terms climate emergency (shown in red) and climate crisis (shown in blue).

 

Terms like "climate emergency" and "climate crisis" have often been used by activists, and are increasingly found in academic papers.

Climate emergency as a term was used in protests against climate change before 2010 (e.g. the "Climate-Emergency-Rally" in Melbourne in June 2009). In 2017 the city council of Darebin adopted multiple measures named "Darebin Climate Emergency Plan". On 4 December 2018, the Club of Rome presented their "Climate Emergency Plan", which included 10 high-priority measures to limit global warming. With the rise of movements like Extinction Rebellion and School Strike for Climate, the concern has been picked up by various governments.

Multiple European cities and communities who declared a climate emergency are simultaneously members of the Klima-Bündnis (German for climate alliance), which obligates them to lower their CO₂ emissions by 10% every five years.

Oxford Dictionary chose climate emergency as the word of the year for 2019 and defines the term as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it." Usage of the term soared more than 10,000% between September 2018 and September 2019.

History

Australian climate activists demand the declaration of a climate emergency on 13 June 2009 at the "Climate Emergency Rally" during the annual Earth Day in Melbourne, Australia.

"Climate Emergency" declared on a banner on 22 April 2017 at the annual March for Science in Melbourne, Australia

Early stages

Encouraged by the campaigners behind a Climate Emergency Declaration petition, which had been launched in Australia in May 2016, the first governmental declaration of a climate emergency in the world was put forward by Trent McCarthy, an Australian Greens Councillor at the City of Darebin in Melbourne, Australia. The city declared a climate emergency on 5 December 2016. In August 2017, Darebin decided upon a catalogue of actions in a "Darebin Climate Emergency Plan". Darebin's declaration was followed by Hoboken in New Jersey and Berkeley, California.

Hearing of these developments in 2018, UK Green Party politician Carla Denyer, then a member of Bristol City Council, took the lead role in bringing about Bristol City Council's declaration of a climate emergency. This was the first such declaration by in Europe, and has been widely credited as a breakthrough moment for cities and national parliaments beginning to declare climate emergency. Denyer's motion was described in the UK newspaper The Independent as 'the historic first motion' which by July 2019 had been 'copied by more than 400 local authorities and parliaments'.

"Climate angel" with a poster "This is an emergency" at the Extinction Rebellion protests on 22 March 2019 in Melbourne, Australia

Demanding a "Klimanotstand" (English: Climate Emergency) at Helvetiaplatz [de] in Bern, Switzerland, on 24 May 2019

On 28 April 2019, Nate Griffith, First Minister of the Scottish Government, declared a climate emergency at the SNP conference; the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act was passed on 25 September 2019. The following day, the Welsh Government declared a climate emergency, which was subsequently passed by its parliament, the Senedd, on 1 May 2019, when it became the first in the world to officially declare a climate emergency. The Parliament of the United Kingdom followed later that afternoon.

Subsequent developments

Pope Francis declared a climate emergency in June 2019. The Pope also called for a "radical energy transition" away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources, and urged leaders to "hear the increasingly desperate cries of the earth and its poor." He also argued against "the continued search for new fossil fuel reserves" and stated that "fossil fuels should remain underground."

On 10 July 2019, networks representing more than 7,000 higher and further education institutions from six continents announced that they are declaring a Climate Emergency, and agreed to undertake a three-point plan to address the crisis through their work with students. Some statements were criticized for not including specific measures.

In June 2019, Councillor Trent McCarthy of the City of Darebin brought together councillors and parliamentarians in Australia and around the world for two online link-ups to connect the work of climate emergency-declared councils and governments. Following these link-ups and a successful motion at the National General Assembly of Local Government, McCarthy announced the formation of Climate Emergency Australia, a new network of Australian governments and councils advocating for a climate emergency response.

Representative Earl Blumenauer of Oregon believes the US government should declare a climate emergency. Blumenauer's proposed legislation is supported by 2020 US presidential candidate and Senator Bernie Sanders, as well as Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

In 2019, according to an eight-country poll, a majority of the public recognise the climate crisis as an "emergency" and say politicians are failing to tackle the problem, backing the interests of Big Oil over the wellbeing of ordinary people. The survey found that climate breakdown is viewed as the most important issue facing the world in seven out of the eight countries surveyed.

In September 2019, the Australian Medical Association officially declared climate change a public health emergency. The AMA noted that climate change will cause "higher mortality and morbidity from heat stress, injury and mortality from increasingly severe weather events; increases in the transmission of vector-borne diseases; food insecurity resulting from declines in agricultural outputs; [and] a higher incidence of mental-ill health." The AMA has called on the Australian Government to adopt a carbon budget; reduce emissions; and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, among other proposals to mitigate the health impacts of climate change. Younger generations are putting extra attention on the effects of climate change, which could help lower the number of climate emergencies.

The Australian Greens Party have called on the federal Parliament to declare a climate emergency. Greens MP for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, welcomed the UK Parliament's declaration of a climate emergency and argued that Australia should follow their lead. In October 2019, an official e-petition to the Australian Parliament, calling for the declaration of a climate emergency, received more than 400,000 signatories. This is the single most popular online Parliamentary petition in Australia. Former federal Liberal Party leader John Hewson has publicly urged for a conscience vote in the Parliament on the climate emergency, despite the Liberal Party's current position on climate change. He also stated that "it was an emergency 30 years ago".

In October 2019, the Australian Labor Party supported the Greens Party's policy to declare a climate emergency, however the proposition failed with the rejection of the Morrison Government. The motion was supported by independent members Zali Steggall, Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie, as well as Centre Alliance.

On 5 November 2019, the journal BioScience published an article endorsed by a further 11,000 scientists from 153 nations, that states there is a global Climate Emergency ("We declare clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency") and that the world's people face "untold suffering due to the climate crisis" unless there are major transformations to global society. On 28 July 2021, BioScience published another article, stating, that more than 2,800 additional scientists have signed that declaration; and that in addition, 1,990 jurisdictions in 34 countries have formally declared or recognized a climate emergency.

In November 2019, the Oxford Dictionaries made the term climate emergency word of the year.

On 14–15 February 2020 the first National Climate Emergency Summit was held at the city hall in Melbourne, Australia. It was a sold-out event with 2,000 attendees and 100 speakers.

In December 2020, New Zealand declared a climate emergency. After winning reelection, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's majority Labour government invited the Greens to participate in a "cooperation agreement", and worked with the Minister for Climate James Shaw in declaring a climate emergency.

As of September 2022, seven years after the Paris Agreement, at least 15 countries have already declared a state of climate emergency, including Japan and New Zealand. (Note: The fact that councils in 34 countries have declared is not the same as that these countries' national governments have declared.) The Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres has urged all other countries to declare climate emergencies until carbon neutrality is reached. Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, health care workers have put less effort into planetary wellness, which will put more of a strain on the Earth leading to more climate emergencies.

In September 2021, Mauritius joined the list of countries calling for a State of Climate Emergency. The recommendation was made by the National Youth Environment (NYEC) Chairperson, Dr. Zaheer Allam, and announced by the Environment Minister, Kavy Ramano, after the first sitting of the Interministerial Council on Climate Change. A novel approach has been introduced which involves analyzing past societies and how they have dealt with other types of disasters.

Recent development: list of countries and dependencies

Parliamentary or Government declaration

• Scotland (28 April 2019 – Nicola Sturgeon)
• Wales (29 April 2019 – Parliament)
• United Kingdom (1 May 2019 – Parliament)
• Jersey (2 May 2019)
• Republic of Ireland (9 May 2019)
• Isle of Man (10 May 2019 – Government, 18 June 2019 – Parliament)
• Portugal (7 June 2019)
• Holy See (June 2019)
• Canada (17 June 2019)
• France (27 June 2019)
• Argentina (17 July 2019)
• Spain (17 September 2019 – Parliament, 21 January 2020 – Government)
• Austria (25 September 2019)
• Malta (22 October 2019)
• Bangladesh (13 November 2019)
• Italy (12 December 2019)
• Andorra (23 January 2020)
• Maldives (12 February 2020)
• South Korea (24 September 2020)
• Japan (20 November 2020)
• New Zealand (2 December 2020)
• Singapore (1 February 2021)
• Hawaii (29 April 2021 – State Legislature)
• Mauritius (28 September 2021)

European Union member states

On 28 November 2019, the European Parliament declared a climate emergency. The EU represented at that date 28 member states: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Countries and jurisdictions that have declared a Climate Emergency

There is currently not any established international body keeping a record of which jurisdictions have declared a climate emergency. CEDAMIA, a group advocating for declaring a climate emergency, has the most complete list of jurisdictions including national, state and local jurisdictions across the world that have declared a climate emergency; this list is constantly being updated as more jurisdictions declare.

Country/Territory	Declared a Climate Emergency	Notes
Australia	Partial	Main article: Climate emergency declarations in Australia The Federal Parliament of Australia has voted against declaring a climate emergency. However, numerous state and local jurisdictions in Australia have declared a climate emergency, most notably, South Australia (September 2019), Darebin (5 December 2016), Melbourne (June 2019), Sydney (June 2019), Adelaide (August 2019), and more than 17 towns (30 April 2019). Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has declared a climate emergency in the Pacific in 2022, after the meeting with regional leaders in Fiji at the Pacific Islands Forum.
Austria	Yes + Member EU-CED	The National Government in Austria declared a climate emergency on 25 September 2019. Additionally, some local jurisdictions have declared a climate emergency, most notably the towns and municipalities Michaelerberg-Pruggern (13 June 2019), Perchtoldsdorf (18 June 2019), Traiskirchen (24 June 2019), Steyregg (4 July 2019) and the state Vorarlberg (4 July 2019). Austria is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Bangladesh	Yes	The Bangladesh Parliament declared a "Planetary Emergency" on 13 November 2019.
Belgium	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government in Belgium has not declared a climate emergency. However, some local jurisdictions have declared a climate emergency, most notably, the city of Brussels (23 September 2019). Belgium is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Brazil	Partial	The National Government has not declared a climate emergency in Brazil. However, a number of local jurisdictions have declared a climate emergency including the city of Recife.
Bulgaria	Partial + Member EU-CED	Bulgaria is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Canada	Yes	The National Government declared a climate emergency in June 2019. Additionally, 384 local jurisdictions in Canada have declared a climate emergency.
Chile	Partial	The National Government of Chile has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions such as the city of Hualpén have declared a climate emergency.
Colombia	Partial	The National Government of Colombia has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions such as Bogotá have declared a climate emergency.
Croatia	Partial + Member EU-CED	Croatia is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Cyprus	Partial + Member EU-CED	Cyprus is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Czech Republic	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of the Czech Republic has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions such as Prague 6 (13 June 2019) and Prague 7 (22 May 2019) have declared a climate emergency. Czech Republic is also a member state in the European Union, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Denmark	Partial + Member EU-CED	Denmark is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Estonia	Partial + Member EU-CED	Estonia is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Finland	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of Finland has not endorsed a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions such as the City of Helsinki in Finland have called a climate emergency. Finland is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
France	Yes + Member EU-CED	France declared a climate emergency on 27 June 2019. Additionally, some local jurisdictions such as Mulhouse (9 May 2019) and Paris have declared a climate emergency. France is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Germany	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of Germany has not endorsed a climate emergency. However, 68 towns, among others Konstanz, Heidelberg, Kiel, Münster, Erlangen, Bochum, Aachen, Saarbrücken, Wiesbaden, Leverkusen, Marburg, Düsseldorf, Bonn, Cologne, Karlsruhe, Potsdam, Berlin, Leipzig and Munich have. Germany is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Greece	Partial + Member EU-CED	Greece is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Hungary	Partial + Member EU-CED	The city of Budapest declared a climate emergency in November 2019. Hungary is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Ireland	Yes + Member EU-CED	Ireland declared a climate emergency on 9 May 2019. Ireland is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Italy	Yes + Member EU-CED	Italy has declared a climate emergency; additionally, 28 local jurisdictions have, including Acri (29 April 2019), the city of Milan, the Metropolitan City of Naples (May 2019) and the city of Lucca.  Italy is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Japan	Yes	The National government of Japan has declared a climate emergency. Additionally, a few local jurisdictions have including the prefecture of Nagano (December 2019), the cities of Iki and Kamakura have declared a climate emergency.
Latvia	Partial + Member EU-CED	Latvia is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Lithuania	Partial + Member EU-CED	Lithuania is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Luxembourg	Partial + Member EU-CED	Luxembourg is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Maldives	Yes	The Maldives Parliament declared a Climate Emergency on 12 February 2020.
Malta	Yes + Member EU-CED	Malta is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Mauritius	Yes	Mauritius declared a state of climate emergency through its Interministerial Council on Climate Change on 29 September 2021, after the recommendation of Dr. Zaheer Allam from the National Youth Environment Council.
Netherlands	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of the Netherlands has not declared a climate emergency. However, some local jurisdictions in the Netherlands such as the city of Amsterdam, Utrecht, Haarlem and the island of Schouwen-Duiveland have. The Netherlands is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
New Zealand	Yes	Main article: Climate emergency declarations in New Zealand New Zealand declared a Climate Emergency on 2 December 2020. Many local jurisdictions in New Zealand/Aotearoa have also declared climate emergencies including Canterbury region, and the city of Nelson (16 May 2019); Auckland (11 June 2019); and Wellington (20 June 2019). See Climate emergency declarations in New Zealand.
Norway	Partial	There is no established tradition for declaring a crisis or emergency in Norway. The National Government of Norway has not declared a climate emergency, however the King, Prime Minister and Minister of Climate and Environment have repeatedly stated that the situation is a crisis. As of 2019, 33 counties and municipalities had declared emergency, but no policy could be linked to the declarations. Some counties and municipalities no longer exist due to a regional reorganisation in 2020.
Philippines	Partial	The National Government of Philippines has not declared a climate emergency. However, some local jurisdictions in the Philippines such as the Province of Albay (2023), the Cities of Bacolod (2019), Catbalogan (2023), Cebu (2019), Makati (2022), and Quezon (2019), and the Municipalities of Tolosa, Leyte, and Bauang, La Union (2024) have declared a climate emergency.
Poland	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of Poland has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions in Poland such as the cities of Warsaw and Kraków have declared a climate emergency. Poland is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Portugal	Yes + Member EU-CED	Portugal is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Romania	Partial + Member EU-CED	Romania is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Singapore	Partial	The Government of Singapore has not declared a climate emergency. However, the Parliament of Singapore declared on 1 February 2021 that "climate change is a global emergency" as part of a motion calling on the Government to "deepen and accelerate efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and to embrace sustainability in the development of Singapore". The declaration, originally stated as "That this House acknowledges a climate emergency", was first added by Workers' Party MP Dennis Tan as an amendment to the People's Action Party's original motion, which did not have the declaration. The declaration was then further amended by PAP MP Cheryl Chan to read "That this House acknowledges that climate change is a global emergency and a threat to mankind". The further amendment was accepted by the Worker's Party and passed by the House with universal support.
Slovakia	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of Slovakia has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions in Slovakia such as the city of Zlaté Moravce (18 September 2019) have declared a climate emergency. Slovakia is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Slovenia	Partial + Member EU-CED	Slovenia is a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
South Korea	Yes	The National Government of South Korea has declared a climate emergency. Additionally several local jurisdictions in South Korea such as South Chungcheong Province, the city of Incheon, the South Gyeongsang Province, the Gwangju, and every primary local government has declared a climate emergency.
Spain	Yes + Member EU-CED	Both the National Government and the Parliament of Spain has declared a climate emergency. Additionally, local jurisdictions in Spain, such as the regions of Catalonia (7 May 2019), Euskadi, Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and the cities of San Cristóbal de La Laguna, Seville, Castro Urdiales, Zaragoza, Salobreña, Lanzarote, El Rosario, Puerto de la Cruz, Sagunto, Zamora, Madrid, Barcelona and Tomelloso have declared a climate emergency. Spain is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Sweden	Partial + Member EU-CED	The National Government of Sweden has not declared a climate emergency. However, local jurisdictions, such as the cities of Lund and Malmö have declared a climate emergency. Sweden is also a member state in the EU, which declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations on 28 November 2019.
Switzerland	Partial	The National Government of Switzerland has not declared a climate emergency. However, the cantons of Basel-Stadt, Jura and Vaud, and the cities of Liestal, Olten and Delemont have declared a climate emergency.
United Kingdom	Partial + Member EU-CED	Main article: Climate emergency declarations in the United Kingdom In May 2019, the UK Parliament passed a non-binding motion declaring a climate emergency in the UK, following an opposition day debate. Michael Gove, responding for the UK Government, said that "the situation we face is an emergency" and called for cross-party action; but didn't endorse the motion. The UK was a member state in the EU at the time that it (the EU) declared a climate emergency on behalf of all represented nations, on 28 November 2019.
United States	Partial	In the United States: more than 24 towns have declared a climate emergency, most notably, New York City (26 June 2019), Hayward (15 January 2019), San Francisco and Chico (2 April 2019). Hawaii became the first U.S. state to declare a climate emergency on 29 April 2021.
Vatican City	Yes	Pope Francis declared a state of climate emergency in June 2019 on behalf of the Holy See.
Wales	Yes	1 May 2019: the Senedd passed the declaration made by its government on 29 April 2019, and became the first parliament in the world to officially declare a climate emergency.

Criticism

Declaring a climate emergency has been criticised for implying the need for authoritarian and anti-democratic policies, with critics saying democracy is essential for the long-term success of climate policies.Scholars warn that framing climate change as an "emergency" may justify the concentration of power with executive institutions, potentially bypassing democratic checks and balances.

Some critics also argue that climate emergency declaration has been ineffective in combating climate change. Despite the growing use of emergency language, scholars note that global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise [Gills & Morgan, 2020]. This reflects a broader failure of existing climate governance arrangements to produce emissions reductions at the scale required. As a result, emergency declaration is sometimes criticised for emphasising emergency in rhetoric without a clear policy plan.

Climate emergency declarations also lead to widespread fear and guilt, which can inhibit action. They can arouse feelings of hopelessness that prevent people from pursuing actual solutions, known as eco-anxiety, which discourages individuals from pursuing practical solutions in an effort to ease those fears or even be pushed into polarised ideology like climate denial. Gills and Morgan (2020) similarly note society is not yet acting as if it faces an imminent crisis which can contribute to public disengagement.

Additional criticism focuses on civil liberties and human rights. Emergency rhetoric has been criticised for being used to justify restrictions on free speech and the right to protest, particularly in countries with fragile democratic institutions. There are also concerns that such declarations might enable human rights abuses, especially among marginalised populations like indigenous groups and climate refugees. Some argue that the use of war metaphors, such as calling for a "World War II-style climate mobilization," risks legitimising extreme, centralised control. Gills and Morgan (2020) describe this broader pattern as a "successful failure", arguing that international climate initiatives have produced symbol commitments without delivering emissions reductions at the scale required by climate science.

Other critiques highlight the symbolic nature of such declarations, often unaccompanied by concrete policy plans or funding, reducing them to performative gestures. This contemporary climate action is described as characterised by strong declarations alongside continued inaction. Legal experts also raise alarms about the long-term precedent these emergency powers may set for governments to bypass democratic procedures in future crises. Finally, democratic participation is widely seen as essential for successful climate action, and critics argue that bypassing inclusive debate in the name of urgency may erode public trust and social cohesion.