Directed panspermia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed_panspermia 

Directed panspermia is the deliberate transport of microorganisms in space to be used as introduced species on lifeless but habitable astronomical objects.

Historically, Shklovskii and Sagan (1966) and Crick and Orgel (1973) hypothesized that life on the Earth may have been seeded deliberately by other civilizations. Conversely, Mautner and Matloff (1979) and Mautner (1995, 1997) proposed that humanity should seed other planetary systems, protoplanetary discs or star-forming clouds with microorganisms, to secure and expand its organic gene/protein lifeform. To avoid interference with local life, the targets may be young planetary systems where local life is unlikely. Directed panspermia can be motivated by biotic ethics that value the basic patterns of organic gene/protein life with its unique complexity and unity, and its drive for self-propagation.

Directed panspermia is becoming possible due to developments in solar sails, precise astrometry, the discovery of extrasolar planets, extremophiles and microbial genetic engineering. Cosmological projections suggest that life in space can then have a future.

History and motivation

An early example of the idea of directed panspermia dates to the early science fiction work Last and First Men by Olaf Stapledon, first published in 1930. It details the manner in which the last humans, upon discovering that the Solar System will soon be destroyed, send microscopic "seeds of a new humanity" towards potentially habitable areas of the universe.

In 1966, Shklovskii and Sagan speculated that life on Earth may have been seeded through directed panspermia by other civilisations, and, in 1973, Crick and Orgel also discussed the concept. Conversely, Mautner and Matloff proposed in 1979, and Mautner examined in detail in 1995 and 1997 the technology and motivation to secure and expand our organic gene/protein life-form by directed panspermia missions to other planetary systems, protoplanetary discs and star-forming clouds. Technological aspects include propulsion by solar sails, deceleration by radiation pressure or viscous drag at the target, and capture of the colonizing micro-organisms by planets. A possible objection is potential interference with local life at the targets, but targeting young planetary systems where local life, especially advanced life, could not have started yet, avoids this problem.

Directed panspermia may be motivated by the desire to perpetuate the common genetic heritage of all terrestrial life. This motivation was formulated as biotic ethics that value the common gene/protein patterns of self propagation, and as panbiotic ethics that aim to secure and expand life in the universe.

Strategies and targets

Directed panspermia may be aimed at nearby young planetary systems such as Alpha PsA (25 ly (light-years) away) and Beta Pictoris (63.4 ly), both of which show accretion discs and signs of comets and planets. More suitable targets may be identified by space telescopes such as the Kepler mission that will identify nearby star systems with habitable astronomical objects. Alternatively, directed panspermia may aim at star-forming interstellar clouds such as Rho Ophiuchi cloud complex (427 ly), that contains clusters of new stars too young to originate local life (425 infrared-emitting young stars aged 100,000 to a million years). Such clouds contain zones with various densities (diffuse cloud < dark fragment < dense core < protostellar condensation < accretion disc) that could selectively capture panspermia capsules of various sizes.

Habitable astronomical objects or habitable zones about nearby stars may be targeted by large (10 kg) missions where microbial capsules are bundled and shielded. Upon arrival, microbial capsules in the payload may be dispersed in orbit for capture by planets. Alternatively, small microbial capsules may be sent in large swarms to habitable planets, protoplanetary discs, or zones of various density in interstellar clouds. The microbial swarm provides minimal shielding but does not require high precision targeting, especially when aiming at large interstellar clouds.

Propulsion and launch

Panspermia missions should deliver microorganisms that can grow in the new habitats. They may be sent in 10⁻¹⁰ kg, 60 μm diameter capsules that allow intact atmospheric entry at the target planets, each containing 100,000 diverse microorganisms suited to various environments. Both for bundled large mass missions and microbial capsule swarms, solar sails may provide the most simple propulsion for interstellar transit. Spherical sails will avoid orientation control both at launch and at deceleration at the targets.

For bundled shielded missions to nearby star systems, solar sails with thicknesses of 10⁻⁷ m and areal densities of 0.0001 kg/m² seem feasible, and sail/payload mass ratios of 10:1 will allow exit velocities near the maximum possible for such sails. Sails with about 540 m radius and area of 10⁶ m² can impart 10 kg payloads with interstellar cruise velocities of 0.0005 c (1.5x10⁵ m/s) when launched from 1 au (astronomical unit). At this speed, voyage to the Alpha PsA star will last 50,000 y, and to the Rho Opiuchus cloud, 824,000 years.

At the targets, the microbial payload would decompose into 10¹¹ (100 billion) 30 µm capsules to increase the probability of capture. In the swarm strategy to protoplanetary discs and interstellar clouds, 1 mm radius, 4.2x10⁻⁶ kg microbial capsules are launched from 1 au using sails of 4.2x10⁻⁵ kg with radius of 0.37 m and area of 0.42 m² to achieve cruising speeds of 0.0005 c. At the target, each capsule decomposes into 4,000 delivery microcapsules of 10⁻¹⁰ kg and of 30 micrometer radius that allow intact entry to planetary atmospheres.

For missions that do not encounter dense gas zones, such as interstellar transit to mature planets or to habitable zones about stars, the microcapsules can be launched directly from 1 au using 10⁻⁹ kg sails of 1.8 mm radius to achieve velocities of 0.0005 c to be decelerated by radiation pressure for capture at the targets. The 1 mm and 30 micrometer radius vehicles and payloads are needed in large numbers for both the bundled and swarm missions. These capsules and the miniature sails for swarm missions can be mass manufactured readily.

Astrometry and targeting

The panspermia vehicles would be aimed at moving targets whose locations at the time of arrival must be predicted. This can be calculated using their measured proper motions, their distances, and the cruising speeds of the vehicles. The positional uncertainty and size of the target object then allow estimating the probability that the panspermia vehicles will arrive at their targets. The positional uncertainty ${\displaystyle \delta y}$ (m) of the target at arrival time is given by the following equation, where ${\displaystyle \alpha _{p}}$ is the resolution of proper motion of the target object (arcsec/year), ${\displaystyle d}$d is the distance from the Earth (m) and ${\displaystyle v}$ is the velocity of the vehicle (m s⁻¹).

${\displaystyle \delta y={\frac {1.5\times 10^{-13}\alpha _{p}d^{2}}{v}}}$

Given the positional uncertainty, the vehicles may be launched with a scatter in a circle about the predicted position of the target. The probability ${\displaystyle P_{\text{target}}}$ for a capsule to hit the target area with radius ${\displaystyle r_{\text{target}}}$ (m) is given by the ratio of the targeting scatter and the target area.

${\displaystyle P_{\text{target}}={\frac {A_{\text{target}}}{\pi (\delta y)^{2}}}={\frac {4.4\times 10^{25}{r_{\text{target}}}^{2}v^{2}}{{\alpha _{p}}^{2}d^{4}}}}$

To apply these equations, the precision of astrometry of star proper motion of 0.00001 arcsec/year, and the solar sail vehicle velocity of 0.0005 c (1.5 × 10⁵ m s⁻¹) may be expected within a few decades. For a chosen planetary system, the area ${\displaystyle A_{\text{target}}}$ may be the width of the habitable zone, while for interstellar clouds, it may be the sizes of the various density zones of the cloud.

Deceleration and capture

Solar sail missions to Sun-like stars can decelerate by radiation pressure in reverse dynamics of the launch. The sails must be properly oriented at arrival, but orientation control may be avoided using spherical sails. The vehicles must approach the target Sun-like stars at radial distances similar to the launch, about 1 au. After the vehicles are captured in orbit, the microbial capsules may be dispersed in a ring orbiting the star, some within the gravitational capture zone of planets. Missions to accretion discs of planets and to star-forming clouds will decelerate by viscous drag at the rate ${\displaystyle {\frac {dv}{dt}}}$ as determined by the following equation, where ${\displaystyle v}$ is the velocity, ${\displaystyle r_{c}}$ the radius of the spherical capsule, ${\displaystyle \rho _{c}}$ is density of the capsule and ${\displaystyle \rho _{m}}$ is the density of the medium.

${\displaystyle {\frac {dv}{dt}}=-{\frac {3v^{2}}{2\rho _{c}}}{\frac {\rho _{m}}{r_{c}}}}$

A vehicle entering the cloud with a velocity of 0.0005 c (1.5 × 10⁵ m s⁻¹) will be captured when decelerated to 2,000 m s⁻¹, the typical speed of grains in the cloud. The size of the capsules can be designed to stop at zones with various densities in the interstellar cloud. Simulations show that a 35 μm radius capsule will be captured in a dense core, and a 1 mm radius capsule in a protostellar condensation in the cloud. As for approach to accretion discs about stars, a millimetre size capsule entering the 1000 km thick disc face at 0.0005 c will be captured at 100 km into the disc. Therefore, 1 mm sized objects may be the best for seeding protoplanetary discs about new stars and protostellar condensations in interstellar clouds.

The captured panspermia capsules will mix with dust. A fraction of the dust and a proportional fraction of the captured capsules will be delivered to astronomical objects. Dispersing the payload into delivery microcapsules will increase the chance that some will be delivered to habitable objects. Particles of 0.6 – 60 μm radius can remain cold enough to preserve organic matter during atmospheric entry to planets or moons. Accordingly, each 1 mm, 4.2 × 10⁻⁶ kg capsule captured in the viscous medium can be dispersed into 42,000 delivery microcapsules of 30 μm radius, each weighing 10⁻¹⁰ kg and containing 100,000 microbes. These objects will not be ejected from the dust cloud by radiation pressure from the star, and will remain mixed with the dust. A fraction of the dust, containing the captured microbial capsules, will be captured by planets or moons, or captured in comets and delivered by them later to planets. The probability of capture, ${\displaystyle P_{\text{capture}}}$, can be estimated from similar processes, such as the capture of interplanetary dust particles by planets and moons in our Solar System, where 10⁻⁵ of the Zodiacal cloud maintained by comet ablation, and also a similar fraction of asteroid fragments, is collected by the Earth. The probability of capture of an initially launched capsule by a planet (or astronomical object) ${\displaystyle P_{\text{planet}}}$ is given by the equation below, where ${\displaystyle P_{\text{target}}}$ is the probability that the capsule reaches the target accretion disc or cloud zone, and ${\displaystyle P_{\text{capture}}}$ is the probability of capture from this zone by a planet.

${\displaystyle P_{\text{planet}}=P_{\text{target}}\times P_{\text{capture}}}$

The probability ${\displaystyle P_{\text{planet}}}$ depends on the mixing ratio of the capsules with the dust and on the fraction of the dust delivered to planets. These variables can be estimated for capture in planetary accretion discs or in various zones in the interstellar cloud.

Biomass requirements

After determining the composition of chosen meteorites, astroecologists performed laboratory experiments that suggest that many colonizing microorganisms and some plants could obtain most of their chemical nutrients from asteroid and cometary materials. However, the scientists noted that phosphate (PO₄) and nitrate (NO₃–N) critically limit nutrition to many terrestrial lifeforms. For successful missions, enough biomass must be launched and captured for a reasonable chance to initiate life at the target astronomical object. An optimistic requirement is the capture by the planet of 100 capsules with 100,000 microorganisms each, for a total of 10 million organisms with a total biomass of 10⁻⁸ kg.

The required biomass to launch for a successful mission is given by following equation. m_biomass (kg) = 10⁻⁸ / P_planet Using the above equations for P_target with transit velocities of 0.0005 c, the known distances to the targets, and the masses of the dust in the target regions then allows calculating the biomass that needs to be launched for probable success. With these parameters, as little as 1 gram of biomass (10¹² microorganisms) could seed Alpha PsA and 4.5 gram could seed Beta Pictoris. More biomass needs to be launched to the Rho Ophiuchi cloud complex, mainly because its larger distance. A biomass on the order of 300 tons would need to be launched to seed a protostellar condensation or an accretion disc, but two hundred kilograms would be sufficient to seed a young stellar object in the Rho Ophiuchi cloud complex.

Consequently, as long as the required physical range of tolerance are met (e.g.: growth temperature, cosmic radiation shielding, atmosphere and gravity), lifeforms viable on Earth may be chemically nourished by watery asteroid and planetary materials in this and other planetary systems.

Biological payload

The seeding organisms need to survive and multiply in the target environments and establish a viable biosphere. Some of the new branches of life may develop intelligent beings who will further expand life in the galaxy. The messenger microorganisms may find diverse environments, requiring extremophile microorganisms with a range of tolerances, including thermophile (high temperature), psychrophile (low temperature), acidophile (high acidity), halophile (high salinity), oligotroph (low nutrient concentration), xerophile (dry environments) and radioresistant (high radiation tolerance) microorganisms. Genetic engineering may produce polyextremophile microorganisms with several tolerances. The target atmospheres will probably lack oxygen, so the colonizers should include anaerobic microorganisms. Colonizing anaerobic cyanobacteria may later establish atmospheric oxygen that is needed for higher evolution, as it happened on Earth. Aerobic organisms in the biological payload may be delivered to the astronomical objects later when the conditions are right, by comets that captured and preserved the capsules.

The development of eukaryote microorganisms was a major bottleneck to higher evolution on Earth. Including eukaryote microorganisms in the payload can bypass this barrier. Multicellular organisms are even more desirable, but being much heavier than bacteria, fewer can be sent. Hardy tardigrades (water-bears) may be suitable but they are similar to arthropods and would lead to insects. The body-plan of rotifers could lead to higher animals, if the rotifers can be hardened to survive interstellar transit.

Microorganisms or capsules captured in the accretion disc can be captured along with the dust into asteroids. During aqueous alteration the asteroids contain water, inorganic salts and organics, and astroecology experiments with meteorites showed that algae, bacteria, fungi and plant cultures can grow in the asteroids in these media. Microorganisms can then spread in the accreting solar nebula, and will be delivered to planets in comets and in asteroids. The microorganisms can grow on nutrients in the carrier comets and asteroids in the aqueous planetary environments, until they adapt to the local environments and nutrients on the planets.

Signal in the genome

A number of publications since 1979 have proposed the idea that directed panspermia could be demonstrated to be the origin of all life on Earth if a distinctive 'signature' message were found, deliberately implanted into either the genome or the genetic code of the first microorganisms by our hypothetical progenitor. In 2013 a team of physicists claimed that they had found mathematical and semiotic patterns in the genetic code which, they believe, is evidence for such a signature. This claim has not been substantiated by further study, or accepted by the wider scientific community. One outspoken critic is biologist PZ Myers who said, writing in Pharyngula:

Unfortunately, what they’ve so honestly described is good old honest garbage ... Their methods failed to recognize a well-known functional association in the genetic code; they did not rule out the operation of natural law before rushing to falsely infer design ... We certainly don’t need to invoke panspermia. Nothing in the genetic code requires design, and the authors haven’t demonstrated otherwise.

In a later peer-reviewed article, the authors address the operation of natural law in an extensive statistical test, and draw the same conclusion as in the previous article. In special sections they also discuss methodological concerns raised by PZ Myers and some others.

Concept missions

Significantly, panspermia missions can be launched by present or near-future technologies. However, more advanced technologies may be also used when these become available. The biological aspects of directed panspermia may be improved by genetic engineering to produce hardy polyextremophile microorganisms and multicellular organisms, suitable to diverse astronomical objects environments. Hardy polyextremophile anaerobic multicellular eukaryotes with high radiation resistance, that can form a self-sustaining ecosystem with cyanobacteria, would combine ideally the features needed for survival and higher evolution.

For advanced missions, ion thrusters or solar sails using beam-powered propulsion accelerated by Earth-based lasers can achieve speeds up to 0.01 c (3 x 10⁶ m/s). Robots may provide in-course navigation, may control the reviving of the frozen microbes periodically during transit to repair radiation damage, and may also choose suitable targets. These propulsion methods and robotics are under development.

Microbial payloads may be also planted on hyperbolic comets bound for interstellar space. This strategy follows the mechanisms of natural panspermia by comets, as suggested by Hoyle and Wikramasinghe. The microorganisms would be frozen in the comets at interstellar temperatures of a few kelvins and protected from radiation for eons. It is unlikely that an ejected comet will be captured in another planetary system, but the probability can be increased by allowing the microbes to multiply during warm perihelion approach to the Sun, then fragmenting the comet. A 1 km radius comet would yield 4.2 x 10¹² one-kg seeded fragments, and rotating the comet would eject these shielded icy objects in random directions into the galaxy. This increases a trillion-fold the probability of capture in another planetary system, compared with transport by a single comet. Such manipulation of comets is a speculative long-term prospect.

The German physicist Claudius Gros has proposed that the technology developed by the Breakthrough Starshot initiative may be utilized in a second step to establish a biosphere of unicellular microbes on otherwise only transiently habitable astronomical objects. The aim of this initiative, the Genesis project, would be to fast forward evolution to a stage equivalent of the precambrian period on Earth. Gros argues that the Genesis project would be realizable within 50–100 years, using low-mass probes equipped with a miniaturized gene laboratory for the in situ cell synthesis of the microbes. The Genesis project extends directed panspermia to eukaryotic life, arguing that it is more likely that complex life is rare, and not bacterial life. In 2020, the theoretical physicist Avi Loeb wrote about a similar 3-D printer that can manufacture seeds of life in the Scientific American.

Motivation and ethics

Directed panspermia aims to secure and expand our family of organic gene/protein life. It may be motivated by the desire to perpetuate the common genetic heritage of all terrestrial life. This motivation was formulated as biotic ethics, that value the common gene/protein patterns of organic life, and as panbiotic ethics that aim to secure and expand life in the universe.

Molecular biology shows complex patterns common to all cellular life, a common genetic code and a common mechanism to translate it into proteins, which in turn help to reproduce the DNA code. Also, shared are the basic mechanisms of energy use and material transport. These self-propagating patterns and processes are the core of organic gene/protein life. Life is unique because of this complexity, and because of the exact coincidence of the laws of physics that allow life to exist. Also unique to life is the pursuit of self-propagation, which implies a human purpose to secure and expand life. These objectives are best secured in space, suggesting a panbiotic ethics aimed to secure this future.

Objections and counterarguments

The main objection to directed panspermia is that it may interfere with local life at the targets. The colonizing microorganisms may out-compete local life for resources, or infect and harm local organisms. However, this probability can be minimized by targeting newly forming planetary systems, accretion discs and star-forming clouds, where local life, and especially advanced life, could not have emerged yet. If there is local life that is fundamentally different, the colonizing microorganisms may not harm it. If there is local organic gene/protein life, it may exchange genes with the colonizing microorganisms, increasing galactic biodiversity.

Another objection is that space should be left pristine for scientific studies, a reason for planetary quarantine. However, directed panspermia may reach only a few, at most a few hundred new stars, still leaving a hundred billion pristine for local life and for research. A technical objection is the uncertain survival of the messenger organisms during long interstellar transit. Research by simulations, and the development on hardy colonizers is needed to address this questions.

A third argument against engaging in directed panspermia derives from the view that wild animals do not —on the average— have lives worth living, and thus spreading life would be morally wrong. Ng supports this view, and other authors agree or disagree, because it is not possible to measure animal pleasure or pain. In any case, directed panspermia will send microbes that will continue life but cannot enjoy it or suffer. They may evolve in eons into conscious species whose nature we cannot predict. Therefore, these arguments are premature in relation to directed panspermia.

In popular culture

The discovery of an ancient directed panspermia effort is the central theme of "The Chase," an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation. In the story, Captain Picard must work to complete the penultimate research of his late archaeology professor's career. That professor, Galen, had discovered that DNA fragments seeded into the primordial genetic material of 19 worlds could be rearranged to assemble a computer algorithm. Amid competition (and, later, with begrudging cooperation) from Cardassian, Klingon and Romulan expeditions also exploring Galen's research clues, the Enterprise crew discovers that an alien progenitor race had indeed, 4 billion years prior, seeded genetic material across many star systems, thus directing the evolution of many humanoid species.

Space colonization

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_colonization 

Artist's rendering of an envisioned lunar mining facility

 

Depiction of NASA's plans to grow food on Mars

 

Artist's rendering of a crewed floating outpost on Venus of NASA's High Altitude Venus Operational Concept (HAVOC).

Space colonization (also called space settlement or extraterrestrial colonization) is the hypothetical permanent habitation and exploitation of natural resources from outside planet Earth. As such it is a form of human presence in space, beyond human spaceflight or operating space outposts.

Many arguments have been made for and against space colonization. The two most common in favor of colonization are survival of human civilization and the biosphere in the event of a planetary-scale disaster (natural or human-made), and the availability of additional resources in space that could enable expansion of human society. The most common objections to colonization include concerns that the commodification of the cosmos may be likely to enhance the interests of the already powerful, including major economic and military institutions, and to exacerbate pre-existing detrimental processes such as wars, economic inequality, and environmental degradation.

No space colonies have been built so far. Currently, the building of a space colony would present a set of huge technological and economic challenges. Space settlements would have to provide for nearly all (or all) the material needs of hundreds or thousands of humans, in an environment out in space that is very hostile to human life. They would involve technologies, such as controlled ecological life-support systems, that have yet to be developed in any meaningful way. They would also have to deal with the as-yet unknown issue of how humans would behave and thrive in such places long-term. Because of the present cost of sending anything from the surface of the Earth into orbit (around $1400 per kg, or $640 per-pound, to low Earth orbit by Falcon Heavy), a space colony would currently be a massively expensive project.

There are yet no plans for building space colonies by any large-scale organization, either government or private. However, many proposals, speculations, and designs for space settlements have been made through the years, and a considerable number of space colonization advocates and groups are active. Several famous scientists, such as Freeman Dyson, have come out in favor of space settlement.

On the technological front, there is ongoing progress in making access to space cheaper (reusable launch systems could reach $20 per kg to orbit), and in creating automated manufacturing and construction techniques.

Definition

The term is sometimes applied to any permanent human presence, even robotic, but particularly, along with the term "settlement", it is applied to any permanent human space habitat, from research stations to self-sustaining communities.

The word colony and colonization are terms rooted in colonial history on Earth, making it a human geographic as well as particularly a political term. This broad use for any permanent human activity and development in space has been criticized, particularly as colonialist and undifferentiated.

Reasons

Survival of human civilization

The primary argument calling for space colonization is the long-term survival of human civilization and terrestrial life. By developing alternative locations off Earth, the planet's species, including humans, could live on in the event of natural or human-made disasters on our own planet.

On two occasions, theoretical physicist and cosmologist Stephen Hawking argued for space colonization as a means of saving humanity. In 2001, Hawking predicted that the human race would become extinct within the next thousand years, unless colonies could be established in space. In 2010, he stated that humanity faces two options: either we colonize space within the next two hundred years, or we will face the long-term prospect of extinction.

In 2005, then NASA Administrator Michael Griffin identified space colonization as the ultimate goal of current spaceflight programs, saying:

... the goal isn't just scientific exploration ... it's also about extending the range of human habitat out from Earth into the solar system as we go forward in time ... In the long run a single-planet species will not survive ... If we humans want to survive for hundreds of thousands of millions of years, we must ultimately populate other planets. Now, today the technology is such that this is barely conceivable. We're in the infancy of it. ... I'm talking about that one day, I don't know when that day is, but there will be more human beings who live off the Earth than on it. We may well have people living on the Moon. We may have people living on the moons of Jupiter and other planets. We may have people making habitats on asteroids ... I know that humans will colonize the solar system and one day go beyond.

Louis J. Halle, formerly of the United States Department of State, wrote in Foreign Affairs (Summer 1980) that the colonization of space will protect humanity in the event of global nuclear warfare. The physicist Paul Davies also supports the view that if a planetary catastrophe threatens the survival of the human species on Earth, a self-sufficient colony could "reverse-colonize" Earth and restore human civilization. The author and journalist William E. Burrows and the biochemist Robert Shapiro proposed a private project, the Alliance to Rescue Civilization, with the goal of establishing an off-Earth "backup" of human civilization.

Based on his Copernican principle, J. Richard Gott has estimated that the human race could survive for another 7.8 million years, but it is not likely to ever colonize other planets. However, he expressed a hope to be proven wrong, because "colonizing other worlds is our best chance to hedge our bets and improve the survival prospects of our species".

In a theoretical study from 2019, a group of researchers have pondered the long-term trajectory of human civilization. It is argued that due to Earth's finitude as well as the limited duration of the Solar System, mankind's survival into the far future will very likely require extensive space colonization. This 'astronomical trajectory' of mankind, as it is termed, could come about in four steps: First step, plenty of space colonies could be established at various habitable locations — be it in outer space or on celestial bodies away from planet earth — and allowed to remain dependent on support from earth for a start. Second step, these colonies could gradually become self-sufficient, enabling them to survive if or when the mother civilization on earth fails or dies. Third step, the colonies could develop and expand their habitation by themselves on their space stations or celestial bodies, for example via terraforming. Fourth step, the colonies could self-replicate and establish new colonies further into space, a process that could then repeat itself and continue at an exponential rate throughout cosmos. However, this astronomical trajectory may not be a lasting one, as it will most likely be interrupted and eventually decline due to resource depletion or straining competition between various human factions, bringing about some 'star wars' scenario. In the very far future, mankind is expected to become extinct in any case, as no civilization — whether human or alien — will ever outlive the limited duration of cosmos itself.

Vast resources in space

Resources in space, both in materials and energy, are enormous. The Solar System alone has, according to different estimates, enough material and energy to support anywhere from several thousand to over a billion times that of the current Earth-based human population, mostly from the Sun itself. Outside the Solar System, several hundred billion other planets in the Milky Way alone provide opportunities for both colonization and resource collection, though travel to any of them is impossible on any practical time-scale without interstellar travel by use of generation ships or revolutionary new methods of travel, such as faster-than-light (FTL).

Asteroid mining will also be a key player in space colonization. Water and materials to make structures and shielding can be easily found in asteroids. Instead of resupplying on Earth, mining and fuel stations need to be established on asteroids to facilitate better space travel. Optical mining is the term NASA uses to describe extracting materials from asteroids. NASA believes by using propellant derived from asteroids for exploration to the moon, Mars, and beyond will save $100 billion. If funding and technology come sooner than estimated, asteroid mining might be possible within a decade.

All these planets and other bodies offer a virtually endless supply of resources providing limitless growth potential. Harnessing these resources can lead to much economic development.

Expansion with fewer negative consequences

Expansion of humans and technological progress has usually resulted in some form of environmental devastation, and destruction of ecosystems and their accompanying wildlife. In the past, expansion has often come at the expense of displacing many indigenous peoples, the resulting treatment of these peoples ranging anywhere from encroachment to genocide. Because space has no known life, this need not be a consequence, as some space settlement advocates have pointed out.

Counterarguments state that changing only the location but not the logic of exploitation will not create a more sustainable future.

Alleviating overpopulation and resource demand

Another argument for space colonization is to mitigate the negative effects of overpopulation. If the resources of space were opened to use and viable life-supporting habitats were built, Earth would no longer define the limitations of growth. Although many of Earth's resources are non-renewable, off-planet colonies could satisfy the majority of the planet's resource requirements. With the availability of extraterrestrial resources, demand on terrestrial ones would decline.

Many science fiction authors, including Carl Sagan, Arthur C. Clarke, and Isaac Asimov, have argued that shipping any excess population into space is not a viable solution to human overpopulation. According to Clarke, "the population battle must be fought or won here on Earth". The problem for these authors is not the lack of resources in space (as shown in books such as Mining the Sky), but the physical impracticality of shipping vast numbers of people into space to "solve" overpopulation on Earth.

Other arguments

Advocates for space colonization cite a presumed innate human drive to explore and discover, and call it a quality at the core of progress and thriving civilizations.

Nick Bostrom has argued that from a utilitarian perspective, space colonization should be a chief goal as it would enable a very large population to live for a very long period of time (possibly billions of years), which would produce an enormous amount of utility (or happiness). He claims that it is more important to reduce existential risks to increase the probability of eventual colonization than to accelerate technological development so that space colonization could happen sooner. In his paper, he assumes that the created lives will have positive ethical value despite the problem of suffering.

In a 2001 interview with Freeman Dyson, J. Richard Gott and Sid Goldstein, they were asked for reasons why some humans should live in space. Their answers were:

• Spread life and beauty throughout the universe
• Ensure the survival of our species
• Make money through new forms of space commercialization such as solar-power satellites, asteroid mining, and space manufacturing
• Save the environment of Earth by moving people and industry into space

Biotic ethics is a branch of ethics that values life itself. For biotic ethics, and their extension to space as panbiotic ethics, it is a human purpose to secure and propagate life and to use space to maximize life.

Pursuance

Although some items of the infrastructure requirements above can already be easily produced on Earth and would therefore not be very valuable as trade items (oxygen, water, base metal ores, silicates, etc.), other high value items are more abundant, more easily produced, of higher quality, or can only be produced in space. These would provide (over the long-term) a very high return on the initial investment in space infrastructure.

Some of these high-value trade goods include precious metals, gemstones, power, solar cells, ball bearings, semi-conductors, and pharmaceuticals.

The mining and extraction of metals from a small asteroid the size of 3554 Amun or (6178) 1986 DA, both small near-Earth asteroids, would be 30 times as much metal as humans have mined throughout history. A metal asteroid this size would be worth approximately US$20 trillion at 2001 market prices

Space colonization is seen as a long-term goal of some national space programs. Since the advent of the 21st-century commercialization of space, which saw greater cooperation between NASA and the private sector, several private companies have announced plans toward the colonization of Mars. Among entrepreneurs leading the call for space colonization are Elon Musk, Dennis Tito and Bas Lansdorp.

The main impediments to commercial exploitation of these resources are the very high cost of initial investment, the very long period required for the expected return on those investments (The Eros Project plans a 50-year development), and the fact that the venture has never been carried out before—the high-risk nature of the investment.

Major governments and well-funded corporations have announced plans for new categories of activities: space tourism and hotels, prototype space-based solar-power satellites, heavy-lift boosters and asteroid mining—that create needs and capabilities for humans to be present in space.

Method

Building colonies in space would require access to water, food, space, people, construction materials, energy, transportation, communications, life support, simulated gravity, radiation protection and capital investment. It is likely the colonies would be located near the necessary physical resources. The practice of space architecture seeks to transform spaceflight from a heroic test of human endurance to a normality within the bounds of comfortable experience. As is true of other frontier-opening endeavors, the capital investment necessary for space colonization would probably come from governments, an argument made by John Hickman and Neil deGrasse Tyson.

Materials

Colonies on the Moon, Mars, asteroids, or the metal rich planet Mercury, could extract local materials. The Moon is deficient in volatiles such as argon, helium and compounds of carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen. The LCROSS impacter was targeted at the Cabeus crater which was chosen as having a high concentration of water for the Moon. A plume of material erupted in which some water was detected. Mission chief scientist Anthony Colaprete estimated that the Cabeus crater contains material with 1% water or possibly more. Water ice should also be in other permanently shadowed craters near the lunar poles. Although helium is present only in low concentrations on the Moon, where it is deposited into regolith by the solar wind, an estimated million tons of He-3 exists over all. It also has industrially significant oxygen, silicon, and metals such as iron, aluminum, and titanium.

Launching materials from Earth is expensive, so bulk materials for colonies could come from the Moon, a near-Earth object (NEO), Phobos, or Deimos. The benefits of using such sources include: a lower gravitational force, no atmospheric drag on cargo vessels, and no biosphere to damage. Many NEOs contain substantial amounts of metals. Underneath a drier outer crust (much like oil shale), some other NEOs are inactive comets which include billions of tons of water ice and kerogen hydrocarbons, as well as some nitrogen compounds.

Farther out, Jupiter's Trojan asteroids are thought to be rich in water ice and other volatiles.

Recycling of some raw materials would almost certainly be necessary.

Energy

Solar energy in orbit is abundant, reliable, and is commonly used to power satellites today. There is no night in free space, and no clouds or atmosphere to block sunlight. Light intensity obeys an inverse-square law. So the solar energy available at distance d from the Sun is E = 1367/d² W/m², where d is measured in astronomical units (AU) and 1367 watts/m² is the energy available at the distance of Earth's orbit from the Sun, 1 AU.

In the weightlessness and vacuum of space, high temperatures for industrial processes can easily be achieved in solar ovens with huge parabolic reflectors made of metallic foil with very lightweight support structures. Flat mirrors to reflect sunlight around radiation shields into living areas (to avoid line-of-sight access for cosmic rays, or to make the Sun's image appear to move across their "sky") or onto crops are even lighter and easier to build.

Large solar power photovoltaic cell arrays or thermal power plants would be needed to meet the electrical power needs of the settlers' use. In developed parts of Earth, electrical consumption can average 1 kilowatt/person (or roughly 10 megawatt-hours per person per year.) These power plants could be at a short distance from the main structures if wires are used to transmit the power, or much farther away with wireless power transmission.

A major export of the initial space settlement designs was anticipated to be large solar power satellites (SPS) that would use wireless power transmission (phase-locked microwave beams or lasers emitting wavelengths that special solar cells convert with high efficiency) to send power to locations on Earth, or to colonies on the Moon or other locations in space. For locations on Earth, this method of getting power is extremely benign, with zero emissions and far less ground area required per watt than for conventional solar panels. Once these satellites are primarily built from lunar or asteroid-derived materials, the price of SPS electricity could be lower than energy from fossil fuel or nuclear energy; replacing these would have significant benefits such as the elimination of greenhouse gases and nuclear waste from electricity generation.

Transmitting solar energy wirelessly from the Earth to the Moon and back is also an idea proposed for the benefit of space colonization and energy resources. Physicist Dr. David Criswell, who worked for NASA during the Apollo missions, came up with the idea of using power beams to transfer energy from space. These beams, microwaves with a wavelength of about 12 cm, will be almost untouched as they travel through the atmosphere. They can also be aimed at more industrial areas to keep away from humans or animal activities. This will allow for safer and more reliable methods of transferring solar energy.

In 2008, scientists were able to send a 20 watt microwave signal from a mountain in Maui to the island of Hawaii. Since then JAXA and Mitsubishi has teamed up on a $21 billion project in order to place satellites in orbit which could generate up to 1 gigawatt of energy. These are the next advancements being done today in order to make energy be transmitted wirelessly for space-based solar energy.

However, the value of SPS power delivered wirelessly to other locations in space will typically be far higher than to Earth. Otherwise, the means of generating the power would need to be included with these projects and pay the heavy penalty of Earth launch costs. Therefore, other than proposed demonstration projects for power delivered to Earth, the first priority for SPS electricity is likely to be locations in space, such as communications satellites, fuel depots or "orbital tugboat" boosters transferring cargo and passengers between low Earth orbit (LEO) and other orbits such as geosynchronous orbit (GEO), lunar orbit or highly-eccentric Earth orbit (HEEO). The system will also rely on satellites and receiving stations on Earth to convert the energy into electricity. Because of this energy can be transmitted easily from dayside to nightside meaning power is reliable 24/7.

Nuclear power is sometimes proposed for colonies located on the Moon or on Mars, as the supply of solar energy is too discontinuous in these locations; the Moon has nights of two Earth weeks in duration. Mars has nights, relatively high gravity, and an atmosphere featuring large dust storms to cover and degrade solar panels. Also, Mars' greater distance from the Sun (1.52 astronomical units, AU) means that only 1/1.52² or about 43% of the solar energy is available at Mars compared with Earth orbit. Another method would be transmitting energy wirelessly to the lunar or Martian colonies from solar power satellites (SPSs) as described above; the difficulties of generating power in these locations make the relative advantages of SPSs much greater there than for power beamed to locations on Earth. In order to also be able to fulfill the requirements of a Moon base and energy to supply life support, maintenance, communications, and research, a combination of both nuclear and solar energy will be used in the first colonies.

For both solar thermal and nuclear power generation in airless environments, such as the Moon and space, and to a lesser extent the very thin Martian atmosphere, one of the main difficulties is dispersing the inevitable heat generated. This requires fairly large radiator areas.

Life support

In space settlements, a life support system must recycle or import all the nutrients without "crashing." The closest terrestrial analogue to space life support is possibly that of a nuclear submarine. Nuclear submarines use mechanical life support systems to support humans for months without surfacing, and this same basic technology could presumably be employed for space use. However, nuclear submarines run "open loop"—extracting oxygen from seawater, and typically dumping carbon dioxide overboard, although they recycle existing oxygen. Another commonly proposed life-support system is a closed ecological system such as Biosphere 2.

Radiation protection

Cosmic rays and solar flares create a lethal radiation environment in space. In Earth orbit, the Van Allen belts make living above the Earth's atmosphere difficult. To protect life, settlements must be surrounded by sufficient mass to absorb most incoming radiation, unless magnetic or plasma radiation shields were developed.

Passive mass shielding of four metric tons per square meter of surface area will reduce radiation dosage to several mSv or less annually, well below the rate of some populated high natural background areas on Earth. This can be leftover material (slag) from processing lunar soil and asteroids into oxygen, metals, and other useful materials. However, it represents a significant obstacle to manoeuvring vessels with such massive bulk (mobile spacecraft being particularly likely to use less massive active shielding). Inertia would necessitate powerful thrusters to start or stop rotation, or electric motors to spin two massive portions of a vessel in opposite senses. Shielding material can be stationary around a rotating interior.

Self-replication

Space manufacturing could enable self-replication. Some think it's the ultimate goal because it allows an exponential increase in colonies, while eliminating costs to and dependence on Earth. It could be argued that the establishment of such a colony would be Earth's first act of self-replication. Intermediate goals include colonies that expect only information from Earth (science, engineering, entertainment) and colonies that just require periodic supply of light weight objects, such as integrated circuits, medicines, genetic material and tools.

Psychological adjustment

The monotony and loneliness that comes from a prolonged space mission can leave astronauts susceptible to cabin fever or having a psychotic break. Moreover, lack of sleep, fatigue, and work overload can affect an astronaut's ability to perform well in an environment such as space where every action is critical.

Population size

In 2002, the anthropologist John H. Moore estimated that a population of 150–180 would permit a stable society to exist for 60 to 80 generations—equivalent to 2,000 years.

Assuming a journey of 6,300 years, the astrophysicist Frédéric Marin and the particle physicist Camille Beluffi calculated that the minimum viable population for a generation ship to reach Proxima Centauri would be 98 settlers at the beginning of the mission (then the crew will breed until reaching a stable population of several hundred settlers within the ship) .

In 2020, Jean-Marc Salotti proposed a method to determine the minimum number of settlers to survive on an extraterrestrial world. It is based on the comparison between the required time to perform all activities and the working time of all human resources. For Mars, 110 individuals would be required.

Money and currency

Experts have debated on the possible usage of money and currencies in societies that will be established in space. The Quasi Universal Intergalactic Denomination, or QUID, is a physical currency made from a space-qualified polymer PTFE for inter-planetary travelers. QUID was designed for the foreign exchange company Travelex by scientists from Britain's National Space Centre and the University of Leicester.

Other possibilities include the incorporation of cryptocurrency as the primary form of currency, as suggested by Elon Musk.

Locations

Artist Les Bossinas' 1989 concept of Mars mission

Location is a frequent point of contention between space colonization advocates. The location of colonization can be on a physical body planet, dwarf planet, natural satellite, or asteroid or orbiting one. For colonies not on a body see also space habitat.

Near-Earth space

Artist's conception of a lunar base

The Moon

The Moon is discussed as a target for colonization, due to its proximity to Earth and lower escape velocity. Abundant ice in certain areas could provide support for the water needs of a lunar colony, However, the Moon's lack of atmosphere provides no protection from space radiation or meteoroids, so lunar lava tubes have been proposed sites to gain protection. The Moon's low surface gravity is also a concern, as it is unknown whether 1/6g is enough to maintain human health for long periods. Interest in establishing a moonbase has increased in the 21st century as an intermediate to Mars colonization, with such proposals as the Moon Village for research, mining, and trade facilities with permanent habitation.

Lagrange points

A contour plot of the gravitational potential of the Moon and Earth, showing the five Earth–Moon Lagrange points

Another near-Earth possibility are the stable Earth–Moon Lagrange points L₄ and L₅, at which point a space colony can float indefinitely. The L5 Society was founded to promote settlement by building space stations at these points. Gerard K. O'Neill suggested in 1974 that the L₅ point, in particular, could fit several thousands of floating colonies, and would allow easy travel to and from the colonies due to the shallow effective potential at this point.

The inner planets

Mercury

Artist's conception of a terraformed Mercury.

Once thought to be a volatile-depleted body like our Moon, Mercury is now known to be volatile-rich, surprisingly richer in volatiles, in fact, than any other terrestrial body in the inner solar system. The planet also receives six and a half times the solar flux as the Earth/Moon system.

Geologist Stephen Gillett suggested in 1996 that this could make Mercury an ideal place to build and launch solar sail spacecraft, which could launch as folded-up "chunks" by mass driver from Mercury's surface. Once in space, the solar sails would deploy. Since Mercury's solar constant is 6.5 times higher than Earth's, energy for the mass driver should be easy to come by, and solar sails near Mercury would have 6.5 times the thrust they do near Earth. This could make Mercury an ideal place to acquire materials useful in building hardware to send to (and terraform) Venus. Vast solar collectors could also be built on or near Mercury to produce power for large-scale engineering activities such as laser-pushed lightsails to nearby star systems.

Venus

An artist's conception of a research station in the clouds of Venus.

Mars

An artist's conception of a human mission to Mars.

Asteroid belt

Colonization of asteroids would require space habitats. The asteroid belt has significant overall material available, the largest object being Ceres, although it is thinly distributed as it covers a vast region of space. Uncrewed supply craft should be practical with little technological advance, even crossing 500 million kilometers of space. The colonists would have a strong interest in assuring their asteroid did not hit Earth or any other body of significant mass, but would have extreme difficulty in moving an asteroid of any size. The orbits of the Earth and most asteroids are very distant from each other in terms of delta-v and the asteroidal bodies have enormous momentum. Rockets or mass drivers can perhaps be installed on asteroids to direct their path into a safe course.

Moons of outer planets

Artist's impression of a hypothetical ocean cryobot in Europa.

Jovian moons – Europa, Callisto and Ganymede

The Artemis Project designed a plan to colonize Europa, one of Jupiter's moons. Scientists were to inhabit igloos and drill down into the Europan ice crust, exploring any sub-surface ocean. This plan discusses possible use of "air pockets" for human habitation. Europa is considered one of the more habitable bodies in the Solar System and so merits investigation as a possible abode for life.

NASA performed a study called HOPE (Revolutionary Concepts for Human Outer Planet Exploration) regarding the future exploration of the Solar System. The target chosen was Callisto due to its distance from Jupiter, and thus the planet's harmful radiation. It could be possible to build a surface base that would produce fuel for further exploration of the Solar System.

Three of the Galilean moons (Europa, Ganymede, Callisto) have an abundance of volatiles that may support colonization efforts.

Ligeia Mare, a sea on Titan (left) compared at scale to Lake Superior on Earth (right).

Moons of Saturn – Titan, Enceladus, and others

Titan is suggested as a target for colonization, because it is the only moon in the Solar System to have a dense atmosphere and is rich in carbon-bearing compounds. Titan has water ice and large methane oceans. Robert Zubrin identified Titan as possessing an abundance of all the elements necessary to support life, making Titan perhaps the most advantageous locale in the outer Solar System for colonization, and saying "In certain ways, Titan is the most hospitable extraterrestrial world within our solar system for human colonization".

Enceladus is a small, icy moon orbiting close to Saturn, notable for its extremely bright surface and the geyser-like plumes of ice and water vapor that erupt from its southern polar region. If Enceladus has liquid water, it joins Mars and Jupiter's moon Europa as one of the prime places in the Solar System to look for extraterrestrial life and possible future settlements.

Other large satellites: Rhea, Iapetus, Dione, Tethys, and Mimas, all have large quantities of volatiles, which can be used to support settlements.

Trans-Neptunian region

The Kuiper belt is estimated to have 70,000 bodies of 100 km or larger.

Freeman Dyson has suggested that within a few centuries human civilization will have relocated to the Kuiper belt.

The Oort cloud is estimated to have up to a trillion comets.

Outside the Solar System

A star forming region in the Large Magellanic Cloud

Looking beyond the Solar System, there are up to several hundred billion potential stars with possible colonization targets. The main difficulty is the vast distances to other stars: roughly a hundred thousand times farther away than the planets in the Solar System. This means that some combination of very high speed (some more-than-fractional percentage of the speed of light), or travel times lasting centuries or millennia, would be required. These speeds are far beyond what current spacecraft propulsion systems can provide.

Space colonization technology could in principle allow human expansion at high, but sub-relativistic speeds, substantially less than the speed of light, c.  An interstellar colony ship would be similar to a space habitat, with the addition of major propulsion capabilities and independent energy generation.

Hypothetical starship concepts proposed both by scientists and in hard science fiction include:

• A generation ship would travel much slower than light, with consequent interstellar trip times of many decades or centuries. The crew would go through generations before the journey is complete, so that none of the initial crew would be expected to survive to arrive at the destination, assuming current human lifespans.
• A sleeper ship, in which most or all of the crew spend the journey in some form of hibernation or suspended animation, allowing some or all who undertake the journey to survive to the end.
• An embryo-carrying interstellar starship (EIS), much smaller than a generation ship or sleeper ship, transporting human embryos or DNA in a frozen or dormant state to the destination. (Obvious biological and psychological problems in birthing, raising, and educating such voyagers, neglected here, may not be fundamental.)
• A nuclear fusion or fission powered ship (e.g. ion drive) of some kind, achieving velocities of up to perhaps 10% c  permitting one-way trips to nearby stars with durations comparable to a human lifetime.
• A Project Orion-ship, a nuclear-powered concept proposed by Freeman Dyson which would use nuclear explosions to propel a starship. A special case of the preceding nuclear rocket concepts, with similar potential velocity capability, but possibly easier technology.
• Laser propulsion concepts, using some form of beaming of power from the Solar System might allow a light-sail or other ship to reach high speeds, comparable to those theoretically attainable by the fusion-powered electric rocket, above. These methods would need some means, such as supplementary nuclear propulsion, to stop at the destination, but a hybrid (light-sail for acceleration, fusion-electric for deceleration) system might be possible.
• Uploaded human minds or artificial intelligence may be transmitted via radio or laser at light speed to interstellar destinations where self-replicating spacecraft have travelled subluminally and set up infrastructure and possibly also brought some minds. Extraterrestrial intelligence might be another viable destination.

The above concepts which appear limited to high, but still sub-relativistic speeds, due to fundamental energy and reaction mass considerations, and all would entail trip times which might be enabled by space colonization technology, permitting self-contained habitats with lifetimes of decades to centuries. Yet human interstellar expansion at average speeds of even 0.1% of c  would permit settlement of the entire Galaxy in less than one half of the Sun's galactic orbital period of ~240,000,000 years, which is comparable to the timescale of other galactic processes. Thus, even if interstellar travel at near relativistic speeds is never feasible (which cannot be clearly determined at this time), the development of space colonization could allow human expansion beyond the Solar System without requiring technological advances that cannot yet be reasonably foreseen. This could greatly improve the chances for the survival of intelligent life over cosmic timescales, given the many natural and human-related hazards that have been widely noted.

If humanity does gain access to a large amount of energy, on the order of the mass-energy of entire planets, it may eventually become feasible to construct Alcubierre drives. These are one of the few methods of superluminal travel which may be possible under current physics. However it is probable that such a device could never exist, due to the fundamental challenges posed. For more on this see Difficulties of making and using an Alcubierre Drive.

Intergalactic travel

Looking beyond the Milky Way, there are at least 2 trillion other galaxies in the observable universe. The distances between galaxies are on the order of a million times farther than those between the stars. Because of the speed of light limit on how fast any material objects can travel in space, intergalactic travel would either have to involve voyages lasting millions of years, or a possible faster than light propulsion method based on speculative physics, such as the Alcubierre drive. There are, however, no scientific reasons for stating that intergalactic travel is impossible in principle.

Uploaded human minds or AI may be transmitted to other galaxies in the hope some intelligence there would receive and activate them.

Law and governance

Space activity is legally based on the Outer Space Treaty, the main international treaty. Though there are other international agreements such as the significantly less ratified Moon Treaty, colonial missions would be regulated by the national law of the sending country.

The Outer Space Treaty established the basic ramifications for space activity in article one:"The exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind."

And continued in article two by stating:"Outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means."

The development of international space law has revolved much around outer space being defined as common heritage of mankind. The Magna Carta of Space presented by William A. Hyman in 1966 framed outer space explicitly not as terra nullius but as res communis, which subsequently influenced the work of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.

Economics

Space colonization can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose, in addition to estimated profits from commercial use of space.

Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs, there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2010s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$56.5 million per launch of up to 13,150 kg (28,990 lb) payload to low Earth orbit, SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the "cheapest in the industry". Advancements currently being developed as part of the SpaceX reusable launch system development program to enable reusable Falcon 9s "could drop the price by an order of magnitude, sparking more space-based enterprise, which in turn would drop the cost of access to space still further through economies of scale." If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to "have a major impact on the cost of access to space", and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.

The President's Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization, for example by offering the prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.

Terrestrial analogues to space colonies

The most famous attempt to build an analogue to a self-sufficient colony is Biosphere 2, which attempted to duplicate Earth's biosphere. BIOS-3 is another closed ecosystem, completed in 1972 in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.

Many space agencies build testbeds for advanced life support systems, but these are designed for long duration human spaceflight, not permanent colonization.

Remote research stations in inhospitable climates, such as the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station or Devon Island Mars Arctic Research Station, can also provide some practice for off-world outpost construction and operation. The Mars Desert Research Station has a habitat for similar reasons, but the surrounding climate is not strictly inhospitable.

History

Early suggestions for future colonizers like Francis Drake and Christoph Columbus to reach the Moon and people consequently living there were made by John Wilkins in A Discourse Concerning a New Planet in the first half of the 17th century.

The first known work on space colonization was The Brick Moon, a work of fiction published in 1869 by Edward Everett Hale, about an inhabited artificial satellite.

The Russian schoolmaster and physicist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky foresaw elements of the space community in his book Beyond Planet Earth written about 1900. Tsiolkovsky had his space travelers building greenhouses and raising crops in space. Tsiolkovsky believed that going into space would help perfect human beings, leading to immortality and peace.

Others have also written about space colonies as Lasswitz in 1897 and Bernal, Oberth, Von Pirquet and Noordung in the 1920s. Wernher von Braun contributed his ideas in a 1952 Colliers article. In the 1950s and 1960s, Dandridge M. Cole published his ideas.

Another seminal book on the subject was the book The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space by Gerard K. O'Neill in 1977 which was followed the same year by Colonies in Space by T. A. Heppenheimer.

In 1977 the first sustained space habitat the Salyut 6 station was put into Earth's orbit eventually succeeded by the ISS, today's closest to a human outpost in space.

M. Dyson wrote Home on the Moon; Living on a Space Frontier in 2003; Peter Eckart wrote Lunar Base Handbook in 2006 and then Harrison Schmitt's Return to the Moon written in 2007.

As of 2013, Bigelow Aerospace was the only private commercial spaceflight company that had launched experimental space station modules, and they had launched two: Genesis I (2006) and Genesis II (2007), both into Earth-orbit. As of 2014, they had indicated that their first production model of the space habitat, a much larger habitat (330 m³ (12,000 cu ft)) called the BA 330, could be launched as early as 2017. In the event, the larger habitat was never built, and Bigelow laid off all employees in March 2020.

Planetary protection

Robotic spacecraft to Mars are required to be sterilized, to have at most 300,000 spores on the exterior of the craft—and more thoroughly sterilized if they contact "special regions" containing water, otherwise there is a risk of contaminating not only the life-detection experiments but possibly the planet itself.

It is impossible to sterilize human missions to this level, as humans are host to typically a hundred trillion microorganisms of thousands of species of the human microbiome, and these cannot be removed while preserving the life of the human. Containment seems the only option, but it is a major challenge in the event of a hard landing (i.e. crash). There have been several planetary workshops on this issue, but with no final guidelines for a way forward yet. Human explorers could also inadvertently contaminate Earth if they return to the planet while carrying extra-terrestrial microorganisms.

Objections

A corollary to the Fermi paradox—"nobody else is doing it"—is the argument that, because no evidence of alien colonization technology exists, it is statistically unlikely to even be possible to use that same level of technology ourselves.

Colonizing space would require massive amounts of financial, physical, and human capital devoted to research, development, production, and deployment. Earth's natural resources do not increase to a noteworthy extent (which is in keeping with the "only one Earth" position of environmentalists). Thus, considerable efforts in colonizing places outside Earth would appear as a hazardous waste of the Earth's limited resources for an aim without a clear end.

The fundamental problem of public things, needed for survival, such as space programs, is the free-rider problem. Convincing the public to fund such programs would require additional self-interest arguments: If the objective of space colonization is to provide a "backup" in case everyone on Earth is killed, then why should someone on Earth pay for something that is only useful after they are dead? This assumes that space colonization is not widely acknowledged as a sufficiently valuable social goal.

Seen as a relief to the problem of overpopulation even as early as 1758, and listed as one of Stephen Hawking's reasons for pursuing space exploration, it has become apparent that space colonization in response to overpopulation is unwarranted. Indeed, the birth rates of many developed countries, specifically spacefaring ones, are at or below replacement rates, thus negating the need to use colonization as a means of population control.

Other objections include concerns that the forthcoming colonization and commodification of the cosmos may be likely to enhance the interests of the already powerful, including major economic and military institutions e.g. the large financial institutions, the major aerospace companies and the military–industrial complex, to lead to new wars, and to exacerbate pre-existing exploitation of workers and resources, economic inequality, poverty, social division and marginalization, environmental degradation, and other detrimental processes or institutions.

Additional concerns include creating a culture in which humans are no longer seen as human, but rather as material assets. The issues of human dignity, morality, philosophy, culture, bioethics, and the threat of megalomaniac leaders in these new "societies" would all have to be addressed in order for space colonization to meet the psychological and social needs of people living in isolated colonies.

As an alternative or addendum for the future of the human race, many science fiction writers have focused on the realm of the 'inner-space', that is the computer-aided exploration of the human mind and human consciousness—possibly en route developmentally to a Matrioshka Brain.

Robotic spacecraft are proposed as an alternative to gain many of the same scientific advantages without the limited mission duration and high cost of life support and return transportation involved in human missions. However, there are vast scientific domains that cannot be addressed with robots, especially biology in specific atmospheric and gravitational environments and human sciences in space.

Another concern is the potential to cause interplanetary contamination on planets that may harbor hypothetical extraterrestrial life.

Colonialism

Space colonization has been discussed as continuation of imperialism and colonialism. Questioning colonial decision making and reasons for colonial labour and land exploitation with postcolonial critique. Seeing the need for inclusive and democratic participation and implementation of any space exploration, infrastructure or habitation.

The narrative of space exploration as a "New Frontier" has been criticized as unreflected continuation of settler colonialism and manifest destiny, continuing the narrative of colonial exploration as fundamental to the assumed human nature. Also narratives of survival and arguments for space as a solution to global problems like pollution have been identified as imperialist.

The predominant perspective of territorial colonization in space has been called surfacism, especially comparing advocacy for colonization of Mars opposed to Venus.

It has been argued that the present politico-legal regimes and their philosophic grounding advantage imperialist development of space.

The logo and name of the Lunar Gateway references the St. Louis Gateway Arch, associating Mars with the American frontier.

 

The STS-30 patch depicting a Spanish caravel similar to the ship on the official Magellan program logo commemorating the 16th century explorer's journey and his legacy of adventure and discovery.

 

Gemini 5 mission badge (1965).

Physical, mental and emotional health risks to colonizers

The health of the humans who may participate in a colonization venture would be subject to increased physical, mental and emotional risks. NASA learned that – without gravity – bones lose minerals, causing osteoporosis. Bone density may decrease by 1% per month, which may lead to a greater risk of osteoporosis-related fractures later in life. Fluid shifts towards to the head may cause vision problems. NASA found that isolation in closed environments aboard the International Space Station led to depression, sleep disorders, and diminished personal interactions, likely due to confined spaces and the monotony and boredom of long space flight. Circadian rhythm may also be susceptible to the effects of space life due to the effects on sleep of disrupted timing of sunset and sunrise. This can lead to exhaustion, as well as other sleep problems such as insomnia, which can reduce their productivity and lead to mental health disorders. High-energy radiation is a health risk that colonizers would face, as radiation in deep space is deadlier than what astronauts face now in low Earth orbit. Metal shielding on space vehicles protects against only 25-30% of space radiation, possibly leaving colonizers exposed to the other 70% of radiation and its short and long-term health complications.

Solutions to health risks

Although there are many physical, mental, and emotional health risks for future colonizers and pioneers, solutions have been proposed to correct these problems. Mars500, HI-SEAS, and SMART-OP represent efforts to help reduce the effects of loneliness and confinement for long periods of time. Keeping contact with family members, celebrating holidays, and maintaining cultural identities all had an impact on minimizing the deterioration of mental health. There are also health tools in development to help astronauts reduce anxiety, as well as helpful tips to reduce the spread of germs and bacteria in a closed environment. Radiation risk may be reduced for astronauts by frequent monitoring and focusing work away from the shielding on the shuttle. Future space agencies can also ensure that every colonizer would have a mandatory amount of daily exercise to prevent degradation of muscle.